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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Earnings mostly good so far. Apple, Google and others reporting next week. At 1pm the Fed is scheduled to release its "Beige Book," a summation of anecdotal data from contacts around the various Fed districts. I doubt the market will react much but could have some interesting nuggets in it.
  2. Willihammer
    It is what it is. It's a crude measure but over a large enough sample seems to line up with zone-based stats. Which we don't have for minor leaguers. not that I'm aware of anyway. Do you know any zone-based range stats for Nick Gordon?
  3. Willihammer
    Yes, and with more range than these other guys, Gordon was likely fielding a higher difficulty of batted ball, on average. If we are trying to get a bead on Gordon's defense, that half of the equation needs to be factored in too. The classic counterexample is Derek Jeter, who never made an error because he only got to the balls hit right at him.
  4. Willihammer
    As for 2017-2018, I think Cosart would be a fine get. Someone with 1-2 years of control remaining to help bridge the gap. Preferably an above average glove.
  5. Willihammer
    I think you have to give at least a passing look at range in conjunction with FP when it comes to infield defense in the minors. Gordon's RF/9 was 4.88 last year. That is from a sample of 503 chances. By comparison Frank Lindor had a .952 FP and 4.59 RF/9 at the same level. Bogaerts, .958 and 4.28.
  6. Willihammer
    It'll never happen, but I'd keep him as a first inning (on the road) bat at the top of the lineup. Take him out in the bottom half of the inning for a defensive replacement. Yeah you blow your bench early but so what? He had .100 points of OBP over Rosario and Rosario had about 100 points of UZR over Grossman. At least, I think it would be fun to see happen. In home games, when you're down 2+ and need baserunners late, there's another spot for him. Then the ocassional day after night / spot start. That's 200 or so PAs without exposing his defense too badly.
  7. Willihammer
    If a decent SS, SP, or C is out there for Dozier, trade him and move Polanco to 2B. If that trade isn't there, then non-tender Escobar and give Polanco the backup inf. job.
  8. Willihammer
    You can make marginal improvements, see Ben Revere cca 2012, but basically you get what you got in terms of arm strength.
  9. Willihammer
    Could add Garza too. And a bunch more HS arms. I do think the Twins recent history of drafting college relievers, with the intent of converting them into starters is... bold. Sort of like they're saying "all you college programs, you're doing it wrong." When you look at the higher picks- Melotakis, Cederoth, Duffey, culminating in Tyler Jay, the early returns seem to be, at best, mixed. The other thing is, in a season where a rental closer traded for multiple top 100 prospects, is that maybe there's not such a gap in value between starters and high end relievers in the first place. Granted it was Chapman, but you wonder are the Twins thinking about what tomorrows markets are going to look like? The game keeps changing...
  10. Willihammer
    It just, leaves, a little, to be desired IMO. 25 HR / 600 for a plodding, strikeout-prone, wrong-way split DH. Yes he could unload for a 40 HR season, that wouldn't surprise anyone. But is he more likely to have that kind of breakout than Park? IMO, the answer is probably no.
  11. Willihammer
    +.09 UZR, assist to Sano!
  12. Willihammer
    http://mlb.mlb.com/images/0/5/0/187004050/062916_sano_med_ok9rqg9t.gif ..............
  13. Willihammer
    I suppose there's nothing stopping them feeling around beforehand (except perhaps the absence of a VP), but the tender deadline is usually first week of December, before the winter meetings. I think they'll have to decide on tendering before they can really shop either of them.
  14. Willihammer
    I think baseball is closeminded about 2-way players. It could be worked out in some fashion. Its a hell of a boon to the roster if it works. If not, then you have a backup plan that doesn't have to start over from square one. Of course, by pitching you add some TJS risk etc. But as far as drafting 1-1 goes, I hope they just take the Golden Spikes winner. Bryce Harper, David Price, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, etc. are recent winners. That'd do.
  15. Willihammer
    Mauer is the most athletic player on the team. Swap him and Sano across the diamond. This improves the defense (probably) and keeps Sano off the bench in NL parks. Dozier- listen to offers but with an oversupply of good 2Bs and an undersupply of starting pitching the market doesn't look great. Unless something surprising / creative can be worked out, just hold him and keep the door open next deadline and next winter. Or depending on the new CBA rules, keep him through 2018 and take the comp pick (or equivalent) and p[ackage Polanco instead. Plouffe- Just seems wasteful to non-tender him a year before FA. What options will the new CBA open up? But the health is a huge concern. I don't know, Mauer got over his oblique, can Plouffe too? It is a very close call IMO. Santana- the pitching market is screaming "sell." Gotta at least see what his price is.
  16. Willihammer
    I think we could offer him a chance to hit as we move out of the Mauer era, assuming he has the bat for it. I'm a lot more confident in his 100 mph fastball personally. But maybe he could fill a double role as a LH bench bat long term? Another possibility is if the bat is better than the stuff, he DH's and then closes games. I haven't heard much lately either. But if I were him, I'd definitely post this year with such a lousy FA class.
  17. Willihammer
    1. Get Otani 2. Employ the Peter Principle in reverse- Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes to the pen 3. trade from 2B and corner OF prospect depth- Polanco, Arraez, Blankenhorn, Palka, Walker, etc. 4. Trade Santana to whoever is most likely to outbid us for Otani, acquire non-40 prospects. 5. Trade Dozier only if blown away 6. Try to find a 1/2 year deal for older FA with upside - Colon, Hill, De La Rosa, etc 7. Be ready to add and promote Gonsalves and Jay if they start strong in AA/AAA.
  18. Willihammer
    Well Falvey didn't draft him. Maybe a new VP who isn't personally invested in Stewart would be willing to move him for a fair price. There are a big and growing red flags with Stewart's peripherals but at the same time when have we had a prospect whose stats have so badly mismatched the scouting reports? 94-95, plus slider, decent command. That guy should be striking out A ball hitters at a higher rate. Is he being failed by the Twins minor leagues somehow? Are the reports just false? Something doesn't add up.
  19. Willihammer
    I think you're in the ballpark with Mejia but to be fair he was a mid-season trade, from a team in the wild card race. That may have skewed the price in the Twins favor. I appreciate any attempt to assign net present value to prospects. Fans grow so attached to them but when you look at actual trades, including offseason trades, its pretty clear that GMs don't attach as much value as fans do, generally.
  20. Willihammer
    Yeah I'm thinking Dee's career might be biasing scouts on Nick. Routine errors were the knock on Dee but Nick has been quite a bit better by comparison, even including that run of games. Through 270 games he is right where middle of the road SSs like Marcus Semien and Xander Bogaerts were, from an errors and RF/9 standpoint anyway.
  21. Willihammer
    There is no need to overthink it IMO. Just go with the Golden Spikes winner.
  22. Willihammer
    I'd have Dozier second behind Molitor. An average manager would have lost 110-112 games with this group.
  23. Willihammer
    What exactly is the knock on Gordon's glove? If I never looked at the stats I'd have Jay and Romero ahead of Gonsalves. Both look nastier and Jay has a lot more deception. Gonsalves' stuff looks vanilla by comparison IMO. There is no denying the production though.
  24. Willihammer
    The Twins sure have depth at 2B. Dozier, Polanco, Arraez, Blankenhorn, am I forgetting anyone?
  25. Willihammer
    Not sure about Cora or Kapler. Neither has much coaching experience, right? After two years of Mollie, I'd like us not to go with another noob. Maybe Alomar? I like Dave Martinez personally.
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