Willihammer

It was pretty obvious that Oswalt struggled as a starter down in Texas last year, earning him a couple different assignments to the bullpen. I went through his pitchf/x data for the season to differentiate Oswalt's effectiveness in the two roles and found some evidence that he could still be a valuable piece coming out of the pen in 2013. In a small sample, Oswalt's fastballs missed bats about twice as often when he was coming out of relief (15.93% versus 8.39%). I believe this is a good sign for Oswalt, because he's relied heavily on his fastballs for success over his career (64.2% frequency, +132.5 runs). https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-YWc5dVZJRXVrX00 http://i.imgur.com/DYFzm.png?1 Would Oswalt be worth pursuing? What should the Twins be willing to pay?

I'm revisiting this topic after the Case for Trading Span thread discussion. I believe that Revere's extreme contact proficiency is causing him to prematurely terminate at-bats to the detriment of his OBP. Here I want to estimate what Revere's OBP would be if he never swung at another 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 pitch again by looking at the probabilities of outcomes based on Revere's first 1068 PAs. For data, I'm using fangraphs' PITCHf/x Plate Discipline, and Baseball-Reference's Pitch Summary -- Batting pages. I will assume that pitchers throw Revere strikes at a constant rate, regardless of count. I admit that in terms of a game scenario where there' s a man, and not pitchFX calling balls and strikes, that this is a bit of a reach owing to things like the Compassionate Umpire effect, although there is a more or less equivalent counter effect in the Merciless Umpire. For my calculations, I will not account for human error in calling balls and strikes. For Revere, the rate at which pitchers throw him pitches that fall within PITCHf/x's strike zone is 53.4%. This is before Revere swings or doesn't swing. Of Pitches, inside the zone, Revere swings at 51.4%, making contact 96.7% of the time and whiffing 3.3%. Contact is defined as balls put in play or fouled off. Unfortunately, I'm unable to assign different foul ball swing%'s to balls in or out of the zone, so I will assume it is the same for both. That rate (called F/Str on baseball-reference) is 21% of all strikes seen. 64% of pitches are either a swinging or non-swinging strike. And Revere's Z-swing% is 51.4%. So of all strikes thrown to Revere, 39.3% are swung on and put into play, 10.4% are swung on and fouled off, 1.7% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 48.6%, are taken. Revere's O-Swing% (Swings at pitches out of the zone / Pitches out of the zone) is 26.2%, and his contact rate is 82.1%. so of all pitches thrown outside the zone (46.6%), 16.9% are swung on and put into play, 4.5% are fouled off, 4.0% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 74.6%, are taken. in 1068 PAs so far, Revere's seen 122 2-0 counts and swung 41 times. We can assume 5.0 of those were balls (26.2% O-swing% / ball rate of 46.6% x 41). Of the 36.0 strikes swung on, 27.3 were put in play, 7.3 were fouled off, 1.4 were whiffed.

I'm revisiting this topic after the Case for Trading Span thread discussion. I believe that Revere's extreme contact proficiency is causing him to prematurely terminate at-bats to the detriment of his OBP. Here I want to estimate what Revere's OBP would be if he never swung at another 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 pitch again by looking at the probabilities of outcomes based on Revere's first 1068 PAs. For data, I'm using fangraphs' PITCHf/x Plate Discipline, and Baseball-Reference's Pitch Summary -- Batting pages. I will assume that pitchers throw Revere strikes at a constant rate, regardless of count. I admit that in terms of a game scenario where there' s a man, and not pitchFX calling balls and strikes, that this is a bit of a reach owing to things like the Compassionate Umpire effect, although there is a more or less equivalent counter effect in the Merciless Umpire. For my calculations, I will not account for human error in calling balls and strikes. For Revere, the rate at which pitchers throw him pitches that fall within PITCHf/x's strike zone is 53.4%. This is before Revere swings or doesn't swing. Of Pitches, inside the zone, Revere swings at 51.4%, making contact 96.7% of the time and whiffing 3.3%. Contact is defined as balls put in play or fouled off. Unfortunately, I'm unable to assign different foul ball swing%'s to balls in or out of the zone, so I will assume it is the same for both. That rate (called F/Str on baseball-reference) is 21% of all strikes seen. 64% of pitches are either a swinging or non-swinging strike. And Revere's Z-swing% is 51.4%. So of all strikes thrown to Revere, 39.3% are swung on and put into play, 10.4% are swung on and fouled off, 1.7% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 48.6%, are taken. Revere's O-Swing% (Swings at pitches out of the zone / Pitches out of the zone) is 26.2%, and his contact rate is 82.1%. so of all pitches thrown outside the zone (46.6%), 16.9% are swung on and put into play, 4.5% are fouled off, 4.0% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 74.6%, are taken. in 1068 PAs so far, Revere's seen 122 2-0 counts and swung 41 times. We can assume 5.0 of those were balls (26.2% O-swing% / ball rate of 46.6% x 41). Of the 36.0 strikes swung on, 27.3 were put in play, 7.3 were fouled off, 1.4 were whiffed.

I believe the Rays proprietary defensive scheme has allowed them to "artificially" inflate the market value of their pitchers. While the rest of baseball lags behind, someone will overpay for their pitching talent. Since 2011, only the Nats and A's have outperformed their xFIPs better (xFIP minus ERA). And no one has been more reliant on that defensive scheme than Hellickson (7.3 FDP wins in the last two years). I will be watching this closely, whoever trades for Hellickson, unless they plan on warping into the Rays defensively, is going to get fleeced.

We did the same. Got up there Friday and uncle Joe already had about a 5 drink head start on us. "Take the 4 wheeler and put out some apples over there by the clearing," he tells me. Not an hour later there's a 8 pointer standing there, tail down. Evidently Uncle Joe had gotten him into a habit. So he grabs the .338 and sits himself on the picnic table outside the garage. My brother who lived in Seattle for the past 10 years talked him out of it, luckily. "Save some for us deer virgins." So okay he puts it down. Joe paid us back Sunday morning though. We are just about to head in for the day, pack up and make the 4 hour car ride south to the cities when bang. 50 pound spike buck, great. Oh, Uncle Joe also happens to be allergic to deer so guess who had to dress it, skin it, and butcher it. That venison meat up in St Louis county tastes like dogsht anyway. I'm done with deer hunting.

If he is going to keep stranding runners, they had better get someone behind the dish who can actually catch those pitches.

Looks like a fine park

sorry, I should proof read before posting

Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt. Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage. Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter: http://i.imgur.com/tJLMP.png But Revere puts balls in play at such an efficient clip, relative to the no. of swings he takes, that he doesn't see enough 3-ball counts to draw any walks. If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAs (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently). By comparison, Span sees fourty-three 3-0 counts/1000 PAs. Again, assuming the red light stays on for 3-0 counts, that works out to 52 walks per 1000 PAs just by Revere having a red light on all 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Accounting for a full .050 points of OBP. Give him the red light on all 3-1 counts, and his OBP jumps another .022. But, how would Revere's batting average fair, when the pitcher throws a strike on 2-0 and 3-1? http://i.imgur.com/FrbfC.png Like most hitters, Revere struggles in 2 strike counts (except full count). But Revere's ability to put balls in play is so elite, that he rarely gets into such counts. In 1000 PAs, he has see just 151 counts, of 02, and 210 counts of 1-2. By comparison, Span sees 180 counts of 0-2 and 271 counts of 1-2. He just doesn't miss the ball in 0-strike and 1-strike counts, to his detriment sometimes. Thus, Revere needs to be given hard red lights in order to increase his OBP and turn him into a long term serviceable leadoff hitter.

Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt. Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage. Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter: http://i.imgur.com/tJLMP.png But Revere puts balls in play at such an efficient clip, relative to the no. of swings he takes, that he doesn't see enough 3-ball counts to draw any walks. If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAs (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently). By comparison, Span sees fourty-three 3-0 counts/1000 PAs. Again, assuming the red light stays on for 3-0 counts, that works out to 52 walks per 1000 PAs just by Revere having a red light on all 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Accounting for a full .050 points of OBP. Give him the red light on all 3-1 counts, and his OBP jumps another .022. But, how would Revere's batting average fair, when the pitcher throws a strike on 2-0 and 3-1? http://i.imgur.com/FrbfC.png Like most hitters, Revere struggles in 2 strike counts (except full count). But Revere's ability to put balls in play is so elite, that he rarely gets into such counts. In 1000 PAs, he has see just 151 counts, of 02, and 210 counts of 1-2. By comparison, Span sees 180 counts of 0-2 and 271 counts of 1-2. He just doesn't miss the ball in 0-strike and 1-strike counts, to his detriment sometimes. Thus, Revere needs to be given hard red lights in order to increase his OBP and turn him into a long term serviceable leadoff hitter.

Indeed a walk carries a lower run value than even a single, according to wOBA which values walks at something like .59 and singles at about .67. I don't know exact off hand but it is less.

I worded that wrongly. What I meant is that Deduno's walk rate will continue to hold down his FIP and WAR figures but if he can continue to induce weak contact on balls in play and hold runners at a clip of maybe .7 to 1.0 LOB wins/year, his success will be sustainable.

FDP explained by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/introducing-fielding-dependent-pitching/ You can query FDP leaders by doing a search in the Pitching leaders section. Very flexible query.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Come on he's tugging on his bill there! Pretty soon he's going to have to walk back to the dugout! Yeah, not a full 100 yard bullpen sprint, but Fat Capps is no Husein Bolt. He's a pitcher! And when you give a pitcher a flare up in the shoulder, he's gonna gain weight. I just hope those crazies in the left field bleachers don't hassle him when he gets back to action. Its going to take probably 4 or 5 saves at least to shed those dimples.

Who should start instead?