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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    You would think so but from Panasonic's viewpoint, what if the demand for Tesla's cars isn't there? They have 1.6b on the line and another 2.4b they are willing to pledge. But it all hinges on demand for Tesla's cars, which hinges in part, on the cost of the model 3, which gets back to Panasonics markups on its batteries.
  2. Willihammer
    Panasonic is projective battery revenues to more than double by 2019, and account for a quarter of their overall revenues. I'm not sure how realistic that is owing to declining margins for lithium battery makers and also I'm not clear on the exact terms of their agreement with Tesla. Could they sell lithium batteries produced at the gigafactory to Volkswagen, for example?
  3. Willihammer
    I'm struggling to find another Buffett quote but it goes something like "imagine you have been dealt a hand of 20 cards and must burn up a card with each stock you buy." Basically saying that when you move, move big. More or less the opposite of the dollar-cost averaging method which says to buy on a regular schedule.
  4. Willihammer
    I'm looking at Panasonic as a safer alternative to Tesla. Panasonic appears to be the exclusive supplier of batteries for Tesla's cars, they have a $1.6b stake in the gigafactory. My concern is that the increased volume won't be enough to make up for slimmer margins. Thoughts?
  5. Willihammer
    Not sure who first coined the phrase but Buffett talks about the "circle of competence". Basically the theory is, stick to what you know. An interesting counter-argument to diversifying for the sake of diversifying I think.
  6. Willihammer
    This environment prompted my first short sale. I'm worred about stagflation and/or price shocks if/when the Fed acts on rates again. My ass at least a bit covered holding ~20% of my portfolio short. Obviously it will just eat into gains if I'm wrong.
  7. Willihammer
    I'm thinking about a long term call option on Shopify. Feels a little speculative to buy outright and the long term (exp Apr 2017) are reasonably priced IMO. I just don't know enough about it and am leary of pulling the trigger on a co. with negative earnings, but its top line growth has been impressive.
  8. Willihammer
    Why did Carew move to first base in 1976? Did it have anything to do with the knee injury he suffered in 1970?
  9. Willihammer
    Mauer's JAWS score is almost exactly average for a HoF catcher. But at 897 games played at C, he would be at the lower extreme amongst HoF C's, which IMO calls into question whether his career should be weighed against C, or maybe 60/40 against HoF Cs and HoF 1Bs where his JAWS score would be quite a bit below the 1B average.
  10. Willihammer
    Dozier has quietly chopped 4.4% off his K-rate since last season, while improving his walk rate a tad. I think as Parker says he is staying in the zone longer, and to my eye he has improved his coverage of the outer half with two strikes. He's also hitting more fly balls, while popping up a lower % of those balls than ever. He's an incredibly hard batter to get out these days.
  11. Willihammer
    OK, I thought you were describing a problem where his arm was in front of his body and he was missing glove side. This makes more sense.
  12. Willihammer
    Parker, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being Fernando Abad high-elbow pitch tipping, and 10 being Rick Ankiel cca 2001, how broken do you think Berrios' delivery really is?
  13. Willihammer
    Don't have a subscription but looking at the fastball chart in Parker's article, if that image is from the pitcher perspective as it appears, there's a cluster to Berrios' arm side. A more rapid delivery would exacerbate that tendency.
  14. Willihammer
    I'll put this here
  15. Willihammer
    I have to say Fulmer's stuff looked pretty underwhelming- in relief, against the Twins a couple weeks ago. SSS of course.
  16. Willihammer
    Kinda rude way to talk about Dozier's immediate and extended family.
  17. Willihammer
    Careful
  18. Willihammer
    Dansby Swanson debuts tomorrow!
  19. Willihammer
    Is there an owl behind home plate?
  20. Willihammer
    I think you're probably right but I'd like to give him a longer look personally. It might be unlikely he sticks at SS but its not like we'd miss Escobar's production to audition him. Dozier is a different story.
  21. Willihammer
    Sano's 3B glove is a helluva a lot more questionable than Mauer's C glove was. Its borderline speculative that Sano will be playing anywhere on the infield in another year IMO. Add in a hopelessly small sample size with everything for Polanco and there is a lot of unknown going on. We have Dozier for 2 years still. If it were 1 maybe I'd feel more pressed but at this point it seems holding him until at least next year's July deadline seems like it could help clarify the picture while costing how much in trade value? Probably not much.
  22. Willihammer
    Right, if Dozier is on the team then Polanco would be plan B at third, no? Otherwise a no-upside futility player is getting regular starts in the event one of those 4 things doesn't pan out, which I would like to avoid. Obviously if someone blows you away with an offer for a C or P, pull the trigger amd cross your fingers. As with any other player on the team.
  23. Willihammer
    To be clear, there's no evidence streakiness < consistency, none that anyone here seems to be aware of anyways. We all know you're frustrated by it but that doesn't mean his overall line at the end of the year is any less meaningful than for other players. There are four reasons I'd hesitate to trade Dozier this August or winter: 1. Sano's glove at third 2. Ssano's elbow 3. Polanco's glove at third 4. Polanco's bat If any of those doesn't meet expectations / hopes, then who steps in?
  24. Willihammer
    I wont' pile on because I appreciate all the content Seth brings to the site but yeah, not really a hypothetical any Twins fan had considered until now lol.
  25. Willihammer
    Yeah DIS does own HULU and now bought a 33% stake in BAMTech (MLBAM parent co), so it would seem to be somewhat hedged going forward. It did cost 1 $Bil to get the 1/3 slice of BAMtech. Also saw that they just opened a new Disney park in China that they expect to be a cash cow.
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