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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Its something to keep an eye on, as always. But right now the market is pricing in 1.95% inflation for the next 10 years, which is almost exactly the Fed's target.
  2. Willihammer
    1. We don't know for a fact a Quintana trade is impossible. Some combo of Kepler, Berrios, Sano, might be enough to get the convo started, or it might not. 2. I think you're underrating the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero, and overrating the upside of JDL. Seriously, have you seen that guy pitch? I can only assume that everyone who thinks he moves the needle hasn't watched him very closely. Go back and watch his Sept 4 start against the Padres, his best start of the season. You'll see a lot of 89s by the third inning and a lot of BIPs on the lauded changeup. Berrios is a way better prospect. Out of curiosity, if the Twins did add JDL, who would you bump from the rotation?
  3. Willihammer
    1. replace Nolasco with Santiago for a full year 2. Give Mejia a rotation spot 3. Give Berrios a full year 4. If Hughes is back, give him a spot 5. Give May another shot Next year, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, some other riser. Maybe Duffey figures it out. The rotation did suck in 2016 but the situation isn't nearly as static as people make it out to be. There is a huge range of outcomes that are possible on the pitching side regardless of whether they add De Leon to the mix (who is a wildly overrated prospect IMO). Trade prospects for Quintana. They have yet another top 10 pick coming after all. Plus #'s 35 and 37 and a huge draft pool. Sign Bautista or Holland with a mind to flipping at the deadline.
  4. Willihammer
    Like what?
  5. Willihammer
    they can also keep Dozier, then offer him a QO and take the comp pick(s) after he's done.
  6. Willihammer
    If Bautista produces but the Twins remain a cellar dweller, then they will remain a revenue sharing beneficiary and get 1 draft pick comp in the 31-74 overall range for Bautista's next QO. If Bautista produces and the Twins somehow produce a winning product, then maybe they become a revenue sharing-payor and would receive a pick after the fourth round when Bautista declines his QO. If Bautista produces and the Twins wind up neither a beneficiary or a payor, then they get a pick after the Comp Balance round B. Have I got that right? And obviously if Bautista lays an egg, then there would be no draft pick compensation. But if he stinks, then the Twins probably remain lousy, a revenue sharing beneficiary, and get more picks in the comp balance rounds for their futility.
  7. Willihammer
    He's still a very patient hitter. Hi BB, low -k guy. The big red flag from last year is he got beat on a lot of fastballs, which he usually crushes. Not a great sign for someone his age, otoh Torii Hunter experienced the same thing, at the same age, but was able to recover in his late 30s for a few seasons. Perhaps he is a small adjustment away from getting back to his old self against fastballs.
  8. Willihammer
    Mussina has already been punished by the Win stat. The 2001 Cy Young vote is exhibit A. More IP and lower ERA than Clemens, his teammate. But Clemens had 20 wins to Mussina's 17 and got 122 Cy Young votes. Mussina got 2. In 1992 he was screwed by the save. Mussina managed a 2.54 ERA pitching in the bandbox of Camden. But he only had 18 wins and Dennis Eckersley had 51 saves in 80 IP. I am always amazed by how people remember Mussina. In my mind he was Halladay before Halladay. Quietly putting together huge seasons in a tough home park in a tough division with an arsenal of differently moving pitches and excellent command. Seems like when he faced the Twins you could book him for 8 IP and 2 ER.
  9. Willihammer
    Which one does Mollie ask to be the multi-inning fireman to pitch on back to back days in the playoffs?
  10. Willihammer
    Looked it up- Friedman is under contract through 2019. Also saw that he has never traded a top 5 prospects. I assume that is organizational prospect. And it appears he prefers to trade prospects acquired via trade instead of ones he drafted/signed. I just have to wonder if he is the right guy for that market. I guess I'll believe it when either they win a WS his way or he makes an actual big market, top prospects for top talent trade a la Epstein, Dombrowski, etc.
  11. Willihammer
    You also have to wonder how many seasons Friedman can finish with a first round exit due to perceived lack of going all in. I dunno, maybe LA fans are more forgiving than other big markets (NY) but I would assume the leash is shorter for him than say, a TR.
  12. Willihammer
    Yeah, for any non-yielding asset to be outperforming the dollar, handily, right now, bitcoin is pretty much alone in that respect. If I owned any I'd have my finger on the sell trigger. Just seems like too-pronounced of a diversion.
  13. Willihammer
    Bitcoin is really fascinating. It is more or less a cumulative measure of forex fear globally.
  14. Willihammer
    One thing seems fairly certain IMO- if China is able to stabilize its currency or introduces controls that prevent a massive sell-off at the beginning of the year, you would have to think Bitcoin would take a hit as speculation of massive demand for it never materializes, or disappoints.
  15. Willihammer
    If you own bitcoin, you might want to watch yesterday's Daily Market Commentary on learningmarkets.com. Sounds like the Chinese are trying to get out of Yuan into USD, but government limits on how much Yuan they can sell (despite what Trump says the People's Bank of China is trying to support the Yuan, not devalue it). Thing is, those limits expire at the end of the year, so there is some speculation that in the new year a bunch of Yuan will be sold for Bitcoin. That speculation seems to be at least partly responsible for driving up the price before Jan 1.
  16. Willihammer
    The amount over the cap. And the 92% rate would only apply to amounts that are 40 million or more over the cap a third time. Payrolls that are always north of $240m or so, ie. the Dodgers. http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/76736/how-luxury-tax-penalties-would-work-on-baseballs-biggest-payrolls
  17. Willihammer
    Yes, yes it is Seth. Go to bed!
  18. Willihammer
    We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. Moving on...
  19. Willihammer
    Seriously? For starters, millions of Americans put their investments in the hands of money managers who, in a flat tax environment, would be incentivized to trade on momentum ie. speculation in order to reach performance goals. It would encourage even more risk taking than is already taking place and ultimately hurt returns for the average Joe.
  20. Willihammer
    Gains on long term investments should not be taxed the same as gains on day trades / speculation. Personally don't think the system is broken but if they wanted to add a 10% or 5% bracket for 3+ year holdings I'd definitely be in favor of that.
  21. Willihammer
    That's an interesting strategy. On the one hand there is an argument for rebalancing periodically but that must add transaction costs and taxes selling winners all the time, no?
  22. Willihammer
    Nice job Mike. Question- do you have a price target? How long will you hold NVDA?
  23. Willihammer
    One bank I did buy is the Bank of Greece. I bought in last summer when they announced changes to management as required by their bailout conditions. There are more indications now that the country might have reached bottom. Its speculative, its a penny stock, and if the bank nationalizes those shares will be worth zero. But there's a good amount of upside IMO.
  24. Willihammer
    Banks are rallying somewhat on expectations of increased inflation (following Trumps election) and the OPEC deal which reduces risk of losses on oil-related loans. I suspect we'll see some inflation, but we really don't have any sort of confirmation yet. And if the Vienna deal is anything like the Doha deal, then there is no actual production cut coming. Doha was just a show to prop up prices in the short term, I would expect the same from Vienna. This would weigh on bank stocks.
  25. Willihammer
    Just seems like a non-sequitor. There's nothing to dispute. These are economic indicators. Are you suggesting the "st" market should move in lockstep with them?
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