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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Well the caveat is "all else being equal." You wouldn't bat Castro in front of Dozier just because he's LH. But you wouldn't swap Park for Mauer against a RH starter just to break up Kepler and Rosario. Even if the opposition brings in a LOOGY later on you only traded one PA versus what, two, three against the starting pitcher?
  2. Willihammer
    From an individual perspective there are costs too. How do you split up 3 lefties? Either bump them up, down, or take one of them out of the order altogether. Two out of three choices will reduce the number of PAs against RH starters. Since most starters are RH and most bullpen arms are RH too. If anything I would assume the overall impact of conventional L-R-L-R staggering is to decrease OPS, not increase it.
  3. Willihammer
    Of course they *might* suffer later in the game but they will score more runs early in games (assuming the starter is opposite-handed) over time, all else being equal. The other thing is, conventional bullpen managment says to save your best relievers for leads, particularly when on the road. Take a tie game or +1 lead into the 7th and you might never have to worry about facing a lefty or, at least, not the best lefty in some cases.
  4. Willihammer
    Yeah. If healthy, I still like him to hit .775-.800. But he's gotta stay healthy!
  5. Willihammer
    Interesting. I would have guessed more followed the Joe Nathan / Glen Perkins path of failed starterdom. Maybe taking him out of the rotation now isn't cause for concern as far as Jay's prospects of being a good reliever go after all.
  6. Willihammer
    Question- can anyone name a dominant bullpen arm that did not advance to at least AAA as a starting pitcher?
  7. Willihammer
    Article on Yoan Moncada from last week. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18975183/chicago-white-sox-prospect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut
  8. Willihammer
    In Brock's scenario you get Pressly up same time as you would otherwise. After the first baserunner gets into scoring position probably. So, if the next batter doesn't load the bases, but hits an RBI double, the score's now -2 but the high leverage guy Pressly's already warming. He pitches, but the lineup changes to -2 until the score changes again. Play the odds. A runner on second base is going to need, on average, 2-3 batters to step to the plate before someone gets a hit. About a quarter of the time the first guy will get him in.
  9. Willihammer
    I won't speak for Brock but what I'd do is use score as proxy for leverage. Tie game being the highest, +1 next, -1, next, and so on. With a "lineup" for each score. Pressly and Rogers are #1 and 2 respectively in a tie or +1 score. Double barreled warm up with whoever matches up to batter handedness entering first. This is assuming the opponent is a conventional L-R-L-R lineup and not heavily platooned against the starter. In that event keep the opposite handed guy on the bench obviously. In a +/- 3 run game, ie. low leverage, the lineup would be virtually flip flopped. With Belisle or Tonkin first out of the gate. Basically, pitch to the score.
  10. Willihammer
    Only 5? We're comin!
  11. Willihammer
    Timing is a fool's game I know but it really seems like this latest run-up was built on political hopes and dreams that seem unlikely to materialize. I'm saving as much cash as I can afford to.
  12. Willihammer
    http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/e9/e965339ef2f7ec69cd723354f029a41d30c64e75d91374cb6f7900631386feaa.jpg
  13. Willihammer
    Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.
  14. Willihammer
    And Hughes is coming from a park that inflates LH power (New Yankees Stadium) vs Santiago who is coming from a park that suppresses RH home runs.
  15. Willihammer
    Tomas Froemming with an early bid for "most organized multi-quote reply of 2017!" Nicely done. I think you make some good points. Between the framing, park factor, outfield defense, hi/low strike etc Santiago is going to be one of the better analytical narratives of 2017. Look forward to revising his results later on.
  16. Willihammer
    Cool pics, and look at that resolution! Is that one of those Kodak Premo's I spotted in last winter's Sears catalogue?
  17. Willihammer
    He'll get away with 19 pitches up there then on the 20th one is cranked for a double. "That's why you gotta keep the ball down!"
  18. Willihammer
    Awesome job. Really hopeful about Castro's defense.
  19. Willihammer
    IMO the Twins should be careful not to throw out the baby with the bathwater. College pitcher throw out of the bullpen as underclassmen almost always. The best ones usually move to the rotation by their junior year, but not always. For example the Yankees drafted a junior in the 5th round in 2015 out of Dallas Baptist named Chance Adams who never cracked the rotation. He's now dominating the minors as a starter. Brock Stewart's another guy (6th rounder). College coaches aren't perfect and certainly most of them favor seniority to varying degrees. There's an inefficiency at some schools, but the Twins need to do a better job of identifying those cases and probably not take those risks until later rounds.
  20. Willihammer
    Santiago's a fly ball guy too, so you'd think any advantage in PF and OF defense would be amplified.
  21. Willihammer
    Katoh likes Granite quite a bit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/
  22. Willihammer
    Is it possible to give players the comfort of routine while also being friendly to analytics, that's the question I'm getting at. I think its possible to do both, it just requires the manager to define roles based on the components of leverage and not innings, save situation, etc.
  23. Willihammer
    That's where communication comes in. A good manager, IMO, gives players insight into his thought process so that they are looking at score, days rest, spot in the opponents order, handedness, etc, all the components of leverage, so that everyone is on the same page.
  24. Willihammer
    Perkins' point in the interview is that he prefers to have a clearly defined role to one that changes day to day based on game situations. Be it closer, 8th inning, 7th inning, or long relief. He talks about adrenaline and preparation and how routine helps during a 162 game season. Its a fair point but I tend to think a more communicative manager might be able to address some of these concerns and get more flexibility out of his players.
  25. Willihammer
    The Twins have a decent track record when it comes to first extensions, and a terrible one when it comes to second extensions, so I'm probably biased. But I wouldn't extend Dozier a second time for the kind of deal I think he'd want- something in the 4 year 60+m range I reckon. Too many times it seems to bite us in the ass (Morneau, Mauer, Perkins, Hughes come to mind.)
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