Nick Nelson

Interesting idea! I've thought about something along the lines of a "Twins Big Draft" that would involve this kind of scope in selections. We'll think on it! (The Athletic did something along these lines last year, I think a Twins-specific version could be very fun.)

With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. This is my sixth year going through this exercise, and I think I can safely say it's never been harder. Read on to see where I landed on #16 through #20 for the list. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints These rankings are intended to provide a relative view of Twins players and prospects by appraising their big-picture value to the organization. The goal is to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, where this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific POV. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit. I always find compiling this list to be an interesting offseason exercise – one that surfaces unique conversations about Twins players, how we value them, and where the system's strengths and weaknesses truly lie. What made it so challenging this year is that, by design, these rankings are a snapshot in time – published at the start of January for no other reason than a new year feels like a good time to reset and reassess – and right now, it's very tough to get a read on the state of this organization and its talent. For one thing, it feels like we're in the midst of a slow-developing offseason journey with big twists still ahead. I have a strong feeling there will be noticeable changes to this list by March 30th. But even more, there is SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with the players they already have. A snapshot at this midpoint of the offseason lacks clarity around key health-related details with massive implications. I struggled with many decisions, and they begin to crop up in this first installment. For example: If healthy, Tyler Mahle at $7.2 million is tremendously valuable, even with only one remaining year of team control. Can we safely operate under the assumption he'll be healthy and at full strength in 2023? (Spoiler alert: I decided no, and he just missed the cut.) Another example: If his latest surgery works and Alex Kirilloff returns to being roughly the player he was before his wrist affliction, he's a centerpiece in the lineup controlled for several years. Can you assume such a rare and complex surgery will take? (Spoiler alert: My cautious optimism got him on the list, but as you'll soon learn, not very high.) With that setup, let's kick off the countdown with my picks for the 16th through 20th most valuable assets in the Twins organization. First, you can check out my rankings from the past five years to see how the franchise's talent landscape has evolved: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 16 through 20 20. Matt Wallner, OF 2022 Ranking: NR On a list like this, Wallner has a few key things working against him. First, his player type – strikeout-prone LH corner bat with big power – is fairly abundant in baseball, as evidenced by the Twins signing the poster child in Joey Gallo for $11 million. Second, that player type happens to be especially abundant in the Twins organization. So long as Max Kepler remains camped in right field, Wallner lacks a direct path to the majors, even though his skill set looks ready. The reason he still makes the list, just barely, is because his abilities within that skill set are SO exceptional. Baseball America rates Wallner as the best power hitter and best outfield arm in the Twins system – tools that were on display during a September debut in the majors. Wallner didn't put up terribly impressive numbers in 18 games with the Twins but had some big moments, and if he's shown one thing during his ascent through the minors it's that he can quickly put a slow start at a new level behind him and start dominating once he gets comfortable. The Twins will hope that's exactly what happens to the 25-year-old, who can make a big impact on the team's (near) future as either a slugger in the middle of the order or highly marketable trade chip. 19. Louie Varland, RHP 2022 Ranking: NR Around this time last year, there was still a degree of widespread skepticism around Varland. Sure, he'd earned Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2021 with some truly dazzling numbers, but was this former 15th-round draft pick out of a D2 college the real deal, or a flash in the pan? He backed up his breakout with a 2022 campaign that saw him: Named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year for a second consecutive year, posting a 3.06 ERA in 126 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Debut in the major leagues, where he showed the poise and ability of a seasoned vet. In five starts, Varland posted a 3.81 ERA over 26 innings, completing at least five frames in each turn. Skepticism remains regarding Varland's true ceiling, which is why he doesn't rank higher on this list, but he has solidified his standing as a turnkey mid-rotation starter with six years of team control. His durability and consistency stand out from the field of pitchers in the Twins organization. 18. Sonny Gray, RHP 2022 Ranking: NR As things currently stand, Gray is the only pitcher in the organization who can credibly be looked at as a dependable frontline starter for 2023. That, in a nutshell, is why I had to include him in these rankings, albeit near the back end because the status of his contract (one year remaining at $12.5 million) and checkered bill of health this past season. Gray has been around the block. He's made All-Star teams. He's started playoff games. He's been a featured rotation piece for several teams in a decade of big-league action, and he filled that role pretty well for the Twins last year. It was a bummer that recurring hamstring issues limited Gray to just 24 starts and 120 innings, but he doesn't have the same kind of looming health-related questions as fellow veteran starters Mahle and Kenta Maeda. When on the mound, his performance was pretty much everything you'd want: a bulldog who throws strikes, keeping runners off the bases and batted balls in the park. To whatever extent the Twins are successful in the coming season, it seems very likely that Gray will play a pivotal role. 17. Jorge Lopez, RHP 2022 Ranking: NR As the 2022 season played out, the Twins recognized that in order to take the next step forward, they needed to buttress Jhoan Duran at the back of the bullpen with another dominating force. This revelation pushed the front office to do something they rarely do: invest big in a buy-high relief pitcher. The Twins gave up four prospects at the deadline to acquire Baltimore's All-Star closer, who was experiencing an instant breakthrough in his transition to full-time reliever. Lopez shook off his previous struggles as a starter and transformed into a convincing lights-out bullpen ace for the O's. His performance in Minnesota after the trade was far less inspiring, but unlike Mahle, there's no reason to believe anything is physically amiss for Lopez. His profile – heavy doses of whiffs and grounders with sinking upper-90s heat – is a pretty reliable formula for success. So long as he can get back to commanding his arsenal Lopez figures to be a key piece during his two remaining seasons of team control. 16. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF 2022 Ranking: 3 I'm an affirmed believe in Kirilloff. In five past iterations of these rankings, I've had him in the top five twice, including #2 in 2021 and #3 last year. I view his pedigree, IQ and ability as a hitter to be in a rarefied class. He's flashed it in brief glimpses on the field, and last year AK hammered home his hitting prowess during a hilariously productive month at Triple-A (.385/.477/.725 in 28 games). But on the big-league field, Kirilloff's success has always been fleeting, with each setback tied to a clear culprit. The wrist injury that sabotaged his elite swing, and has now required two surgeries, will define Kirilloff's career. He'll overcome it with help from this latest intervention, or join the long list of rising stars fell victim to the brutal physical toll of pro sports – forced to make do rather than make hay. I'm bullish on Kirilloff overcoming it. If for no other reason than that the Twins as a franchise, and especially Alex Kirilloff as person, are overdue for a good break. The guy also lost a full year of development to Tommy John surgery, and despite it all, finds himself firmly planted in the majors at age 25. His talent is not in question. A healthy and raking Kirilloff would be a radical difference-maker in the outlook for the 2023 Twins and beyond. Ranking him 16th on this list is an attempt to balance that simmering potential with the cold realities of the human body and its limits. View full article

In one sense, nothing has happened with Carlos Correa yet. A full two weeks after first agreeing to a historic deal with the Giants, he still hasn't put pen to paper and officially signed a contract. In another sense, SO MUCH HAS HAPPENED. The twists and turns in this unprecedented high-stakes free agency quagmire are almost incomprehensible. Let's get up to speed on where Correa's market stands, and how the Twins might still fit in. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports First, a quick recap of the events leading up to this point. On December 13th, Carlos Correa reached agreement with the San Francisco Giants on a 13-year, $350 million contract. It would've ranked as the second-largest for any free agent in MLB history. Alas, it was not to be. Just before it was scheduled to take place, the Giants postponed a press conference to make the deal official, citing concerns raised in Correa's physical. Scott Boras balked at the request and quickly returned to the market, rushing into an overnight agreement with Steve Cohen and the New York Mets for 12 years and $315 million. Soon after, we learned that Correa's agreement with Mets was ALSO in question, because their medical staff ran into similar concerns as San Francisco when going through a physical. The point of contention allegedly relates to an old ankle injury from 2014 -- controversial in that it hasn't affected him on the field in nine years since, but is evidently raising red flags for long-term risk. Reports of the Mets' concerns generally came with the caveat that New York and Correa were expected to work through the issue and ultimately agree on a deal. Alas, three days later -- albeit with a holiday break mixed in -- the two sides have yet to settle on agreeable terms. Meanwhile, it sounds as if confidence is waning, at least somewhat. A column from Mike Puma in the New York Post on Monday indicates that while there is "optimism a deal can still be completed," that optimism could hardly be described as emphatic, with "one source on Monday placing the likelihood at 55 percent that the two sides find common ground." Correa "isn’t open to restructuring the length or financial terms of the contract," according to Puma. The question now bouncing around every Twins fan's mind is: what does the other 45 percent side of this scenario look like? If Correa's deal with New York fizzles, where do he and Boras go? Back to the Giants? Re-engage the Twins? Connect with an outside suitor, as they did originally with the Mets? Puma reports that "at least three teams have been in contact with Correa’s camp in recent days," and the Twins are presumably among them. The team's stance, at last check, was that they remained open to sticking with their original offer of 10 years and $285 million, but only under the condition they could review his medical situation and feel comfortable with what they saw. Theoretically that conversation could fire back up as Correa and Boras push to complete a deal and put an end this two-year free agent odyssey once and for all. The thing I can't quite get past is this: If two of the most impulsive and free-spending owners/franchises in baseball are unwilling to go 13 or 12 years with Correa based on what they've seen with a deeper look, what are the chances that one of the shrewdest and least impulsive will go 10 or more? Can we really conceive that the Twins -- mired in a litany of pivotal health questions as they already are -- will emerge the winners in what's quickly becoming one of the most prominently publicized high-risk ventures in the history of free agency? Do we even honestly believe they should? At the same time, I can't stop circling back to another burning question: If ever there was a series of events that was going to play out and give the Twins a serious chance to "get creative" and sign a deal that is legitimately within their targeted range ... this would seem to be it, right? View full article

The unforgettable Ricky Nolasco!

Good piece Ted! While obviously the first reaction upon signing Gallo was "they're gonna trade Kepler" (and that remains likely) there was also a small part of me that wondered if it could push Larnach, or Wallner, to the trading block.

Actually I mis-phrased that. Third-largest under this front office; fifth-largest in franchise history. Just fixed.

Last week, former Twins closer Taylor Rogers reached agreement with the San Francisco Giants. The size and length of the reliever's new deal came as a shock, offering insight about what the Twins can expect should they venture into the relief market to spend their remaining dollars. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports The Giants and Taylor Rogers reportedly agreed last Friday to a three-year deal worth $33 million. This kind of contract wouldn't have been to surprising had it been signed, say, mid-way through the 2021 season, during which Rogers was an All-Star for the Twins. But he missed the last two months of that season with a finger injury, and then struggled his way through 2022 for two different teams, posting a 4.35 ERA for the Padres and then 5.48 down the stretch in Milwaukee. His underlying metrics were not bad – we'll get to that shortly – and Rogers had a very strong prior track record. Also, we know the Giants had money to burn after whiffing on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. Still... Thirty-three million dollars?! For a guy who had all the looks of a buy-low candidate fishing for a make-good deal? In this economy?!? Even in a clearly inflated free agent market, I find this deal stunning and fascinating. Even if Rogers wasn't a top target for the Twins – sure seems that way – there are some implications worth exploring in terms of what this means for a potential pursuit of remaining free agent relievers. First: The cost for free agent relief pitching is astronomical. We already knew this long before Rogers signed. Edwin Diaz struck the biggest payday for a relief pitcher in history. Roberto Suarez ($46M) and Rafael Montero ($34.5M) received contracts that are pretty much unprecedented for non-closers. This contract for Rogers is merely another piece of supporting evidence to confirm what we already knew: in order to acquire impact relief pitching in free agency, the Twins will need to move well past their comfort zone. To contextualize, the $33 million deal Rogers got coming off a bad year is twice the size of the largest contract the Twins have ever given a free agent reliever (2 years, $16.75 million for Addison Reed). At the time, Reed was an elite late-inning arm, coming off a great season and three years younger than Rogers is now. Further context: if the Twins signed Rogers to the same deal he got from San Francisco, it would rank as the third-largest sum handed to a free agent in seven years under this front office (sixth-largest in franchise history). That distinction currently belongs to Christian Vazquez and his $30 million contract signed earlier this offseason. And to reiterate, Rogers was NOT GOOD this past season. At no point was he a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota. The lefty was bad enough in San Diego that the championship-obsessed Padres traded for an upgrade in Josh Hader at the deadline (didn't quite work out). After getting traded to Milwaukee, Rogers posted a negative-1.02 Win Probability Added for a Brewers team that missed the postseason by ... one game. Rogers was not only bad, but very consequentially bad, which is the same statement you can make about the guy Minnesota traded him for: Emilio Pagan. Would anyone have been excited about the Twins signing Rogers on these terms, even though it ostensibly meets the need to spend money and show initiative? Actually, invoking Pagan brings me to the other big revelation from examining Rogers' new deal with the Giants: Teams are paying for indicators over results. I should clarify that when I say Rogers was bad last year, I mean his results were bad, not necessarily his underlying indicators of performance. Some would say that's a distinction without a difference, but to the Giants and whoever helped run up the bidding on Rogers, clearly it's not. On the surface, the narrative seems clear: Rogers was plagued by a serious finger issue in 2021. The Twins traded him just ahead of the 2022 season, at least in part because they were concerned about lingering effects from that injury on an extremely slider-reliant pitcher. They were right. Rogers scuffled through the worst season of his career. And now the Giants, who just backed out of a mega-deal with Correa because of an eight-year-old ankle injury, are paying $33 million to inherit all of this risk and apparent decline. But when you take a deeper look, this version of events doesn't quite hold up. If Rogers' finger was truly affecting him, you'd expect to see tangible signs of it: diminishing velocity, reduced spin rate, wayward control. None of that was really the case. Rogers' 2.7 BB/9 rate was a bit high by his standards, but hardly terrible. His K/9 rate (11.8) and K% (30.7%) were both above his career benchmarks. His home run rate was typical (about one per nine innings). There were no signs of trouble gripping and executing a featured slider that produced a .191 batting average and 38% whiff rate, while leaned on to a higher degree than ever before. The Giants paid Rogers based on these qualities, not the ugly ERA or the season-altering breakdowns on the mound. Which is an interesting dynamic when you think about Pagan and the Twins. Many of the same things we're saying here about Rogers can be applied to Pagan, whose contract tender from Minnesota in November raised a lot of ire from the fan base. The case for Pagan outperforming his peripherals isn't quite as compelling – he had a 4.21 FIP compared to 3.31 for Rogers – but in both cases, the stuff is undeniable and there's big upside beyond what we see on the stats page. After seeing Rogers get $33 million from San Francisco, it becomes a bit easier to grasp the idea that Minnesota had several trade suitors lining up for Pagan, and that his projected $3.7 million contract could be viewed as somewhat of a bargain. Of course, it's unlikely this will change anyone's opinion on Pagan. And bringing him back will certainly not stand on its own as a satisfactory approach to reinforcing the Twins bullpen, in anyone's eyes. Luckily, there are still quite a few interesting arms out there on the free agent relief market, which has developed more slowly than starters and hitters. Assuming the Twins miss out on Correa again, and don't sign Nathan Eovaldi, there are few other obvious places to focus their remaining budget and make an impact. Building a bullpen that is ultra-deep on quality options, to offset question marks in the rotation and protect against key reliever injuries or setbacks, would seem to be one of the few remaining paths for an offseason that legitimately positions the Twins as assertive contenders. Read More: Looking Toward the Bullpen Market by Cody Pirkl There's already a very solid foundation in place, so the addition of an arm or two like – say – Matt Moore or Andrew Chafin or even our old friend Michael Fulmer could have outsized benefit. But as the Rogers contract illustrates, none of these guys will be coming at a bargain and whichever route they go, the Twins will likely have to overpay on faith. Something this front office doesn't tend to do. Yet, something's gotta give if the Twins want to demonstrate to their fans that they give a dang about making a push in 2023. Thus far their moves have felt more obligatory (Vazquez, Kyle Farmer) or confusing and lateral (Pagan, Joey Gallo) than strategic. The relief market offers opportunities for more purposeful, decisive upgrades ... if Minnesota's willing to meet the price. View full article

I'm confused. Are you saying I was directing vitriol at them in the article/quoted passage? I said there was no blaming them for their actions here.

Not a bad theory.

Who's to say the ankle injury wasn't aggravated in some way this past season? Like, say, on the slide where he admitted he got scared because it was "vibrating"? Are you under the impression he would not undergo another physical, and they'd just use last year's? "Knowing about" an injury is not the issue, everyone knew about the injury including the Giants when they agreed to the deal.

Ah. I found it difficult to get a read on what was implied there. I perceived it as saying "we're not going to go back to our previous offer until we get a handle on this, and either way we're not raising our offer." Because of how definitive the following part was about not wanting to increase their offer.

10 years and 285 is different from 13 years and 350, obviously. And I'm sure they would've conducted a renewed physical with different criteria. What is your belief here, that San Francisco just got cold feet for no apparent reason?

Where was that idea presented??

No one is acting that way. I specifically said: "That's not to say they intended to increase their offer even if the medicals checked out – sure sounds like they had reached their definitive max." And I also concluded by saying there's no assurance his deal will be completed by the Mets, because yes, he still needs to get through a physical. (Though something tells me Cohen will be less scrutinizing.) Seems like you just missed those details!

I mean, let's be honest, you're evaluating through a different lens when you're talking about a 3-year deal vs. a 13-year-deal.

Sounds like it was indeed the ankle causing SF concern:

A new article in The Athletic offers behind-the-scenes insight on Carlos Correa's free agent pivot from the Giants to Mets. For those wondering, it sounds like did Scott Boras re-engage the Twins to try and coax them back into the market. Minnesota balked, and that was it. Let's dig into the details. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports In a tremendously reported new article for The Athletic, Andy McCullough and Ken Rosenthal bring us a revealing account of the latest stunning twist in Carlos Correa's bizarre free agency saga. On Tuesday, about one week after agreeing to terms with Correa on a $350 million, we learned the Giants were postponing an introductory press conference for the signature signing, over concerns surfaced in his physical. Suddenly, the deal appeared to be in doubt. Sure enough, it completely fell through, and by the time we awoke this morning Correa had already agreed to a lesser deal with the Mets: 12 years, $315 million. It all happened so quickly, we wondered if the Twins – reportedly one of the two finalists for CC before Steve Cohen entered the fray – ever even had the chance to jump back in. It turns out, they did. And they decided against it. Per The Athletic, as Boras revived discussions with Cohen and the Mets, he "also contacted the Twins." "The presence of the Mets gave Boras leverage," according to the reporting. "If Minnesota wanted Correa, Boras conveyed, the team needed to improve its earlier offer – even though Correa appeared compromised with the Giants. The Twins would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical. The team did not intend to increase its bid beyond 10 years and $285 million. So Boras stuck with the man in Hawaii (Cohen)." So there you have it. I'm not sure anyone can hold the Twins front office at fault in this situation, given that they merely appear to have been doing their due diligence. Why increase your offer after some mysterious issue was flagged and torpedoed an historic deal? That's not to say they intended to increase their offer even if the medicals checked out – sure sounds like they had reached their definitive max. But at the very least they were within their rights to take a beat and figure out what's going on. Alas, that wasn't to be, because – for whatever reason – Boras is in a sudden rush to get this thing done. And that is strange to me. He's typically an agent known for exercising extreme patience in order to get his clients the best deal possible. Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it." Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker. Based on the information currently out there, it's easy to hold the Giants accountable as incompetent and noncommittal fools in this situation. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that, "It sounds as if there was a very old Correa injury - pre MLB - that was raised as a potential issue. It has not cropped up again. None of Correa’s other physical issues have required medical intervention or ongoing treatment." Slusser adds: "If this was a true medical concern, it sounds a little tenuous - and if it was a matter of cold feet, that’s usually ownership. Not the front office." Doesn't sound so good for the Giants. But then, the information being relayed to Slusser is pretty clearly coming from Boras – notably, she was quick to tweet initially that Correa's medial issue did NOT involve his back, at a time when no other details were emerging – and the team has thus far been silent. One report from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area indicates that the Giants were concerned about a previous ankle injury that required surgery and insertion of a metal plate, as I speculated yesterday while recalling that the injury had been stirred up during a stolen base attempt with the Twins this past season. Clearly, the Giants were ready to sign Correa. They certainly had the money after missing out on Aaron Judge. An agreement was in place. The press conference was scheduled and ready to go. Something spooked them. And given the circumstances, Minnesota's front office wasn't going to blindly dive back in, to the extent they were ever interested in hanging with New York. So as of now, Correa is lined up to play alongside Francisco Lindor, at third base for the Mets. Given all that's happened, it's hard to take for granted that's what will play out. But either way it now seems clearer than ever it's time for the Twins to move on. View full article

Last week, everyone came to believe the Carlos Correa free agent derby was over when it was reported that the star shortstop had agreed to a $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. On Tuesday, this was all thrown into doubt with Correa's introductory presser (and official signing) postponed over reported concerns in the shortstop's physical. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports A report from the Associated Press on Tuesday afternoon indicates that San Francisco's official signing of Carlos Correa, and the corresponding introductory press conference, have been postponed over "a medical concern arose during the All-Star shortstop’s physical." Few details are known at this point, but it's fair to say this is a significant development. Rarely do you see a prominent signing of this magnitude publicly stall out at this stage. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that whatever issue emerged in Correa's physical, it is not a back issue, ruling out one area of the body that has affected the shortstop in the past. The news of a medical issue being flagged is surprising to say the least given that nothing came up in last year's physical ahead of signing with the Twins, and Correa seemed to get through the 2022 season with a relatively clean bill of health. One wonders if the surgically repaired ankle that barked at him on at least one occasion this season could be involved. To be clear, this is pure speculation. But the only other known health issues experienced by Correa this past season were a bout with COVID and bone bruise in his thumb, neither of which would seem to pose any long-term risk. What happens from here? That's anybody's guess. Perhaps this will prove to be a meaningless blip and further clarity will lead to the original deal being honored. (That seems unlikely now that we've reached this point.) Maybe Correa and the Giants will reconfigure the deal in a way that both sides are comfortable with. Or, maybe, the door just opened for the Twins to re-enter the fray. It's not out of the question. Visit back soon for more analysis and added details as they trickle in. At the moment, we don't know much, but we do know this: Correa has NOT signed with the Giants, and it's suddenly not clear he will. View full article

Triple-A? Both have options. Gallo also has flexibility to move around which is what makes him preferable to Kepler. AK and Larnach need to show they can stay healthy for a sustained period of time before anything else really matters.