Nick Nelson

Five years ago, Luis Arraez was a little-known prospect at A-ball, lacking in traditional athletic traits but garnering attention as a novelty for his rarified ability to put the bat on the ball. This past July, he became a first-time All-Star. Last week, he became a first-time American League batting champ. And today, we name him a first-time pick for Twins Daily MVP. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo, Twins Daily Luis Arraez is, in so many ways, not the guy you'd expect to finish atop a team's MVP vote – or alongside the absolute legends in Twins history who've preceded him as AL batting champs. You compare him to the other players on that exclusive list – Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Tony Oliva, Kirby Puckett – and you're talking about thoroughbred Hall of Famers who looked the part. Many would count those four players among the five best in franchise history. Even comparing Arraez to the players who finished second and third behind him in Twins Daily's MVP balloting – Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, respectively – is an amusing exercise. We're talking about preternatural teen talents who went 1-2 in the draft a decade ago – big-bucks superstars who smash the ball, and derive much of their value from premier defense at premium positions. Then, you have Luis Arraez. The Venezuelan was not a highly regarded property when signed by the Twins as an international free agent in 2013 for a measly $40,000 bonus. Just looking at him, you can see why. He is small and stubby – generously listed at 5-foot-10 and 175 lbs – with neither the speed, nor power, nor defensive skill to impress any onlooker. But Arraez brings one truly preternatural tool of his own, and it has become his signature. As Jake Mauer, his manager at Cedar Rapids back in 2016 – and a guy who has his own familial knowledge on the subject – said of a then-unknown Arraez back then: "He's got a knack for finding the barrel." Oh yes. And it's carried him from anonymity to All-Star status. It doesn't matter where he's at. It doesn't matter who's pitching to him. It doesn't matter the count. Arraez just hits. He's irrepressible, with contact rates that top the charts. Virtually no one swings and misses less or strikes out less. Yet despite his ability to put the bat on everything, he is disciplined enough to pass on most out-of-zone offerings, and walked more (50) than he struck out (43) this season. In a lineup that was prone to slumps, and often far too over-reliant on power at the expense of consistent quality ABs and rally-building, Arraez was a breath of fresh air. He was never an easy out, reflexively tapping outside pitches the other way for singles and then inviting pitchers to the inner half, where he could turn on the ball and unlock new levels of power. Arraez's .421 slugging percentage was nothing to write home about but he launched a respectable 40 extra-base hits, and doubled his previous career high for home runs with eight. Now, before I go any further, a disclosure: I didn't have Arraez at the top of my team MVP ballot. In fact, I didn't have him among my top three. Because, analytically, it's hard to make that case. Yes, he led the league in average. But that's merely one piece of the value equation. Arraez ranked third on the team in fWAR behind Correa and Buxton, with a 3.2 mark that is one of the lowest for a Twins Daily MVP since we started awarding it. Baseball Reference's WAR formula viewed Arraez more favorably (4.0) but he was still second to Correa. Even the seemingly more narrative-based Win Probability Added metric placed Arraez sixth on the team, behind Jhoan Duran, Jorge Polanco, Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Correa. But even WPA doesn't seem to capture the full narrative behind Arraez, and the positive impact that lifted him to the top of our collective balloting. It's true that Correa was difference-maker down the stretch – he had the sixth-highest WPA in the AL after July – and technically that portion of the schedule mattered a lot. It's also true that Arraez's bat went relatively quiet in those final months, as he battled a hamstring strain that limited him mostly to DH duty in September. But by then, it felt like the decimated Twins were engaged in an inevitably losing fight. When the team emerged early on and grasped first place, Arraez was the beating heart of the lineup. In the month of May, where the Twins went 18-12 to reach their greatest heights of the season, Arraez batted .377 with a .480 on-base percentage and 19 runs scored. He then flashed his emergent power in June, notching four doubles, three homers and a triple while driving in 15 runs. Compared to the likes of Correa and Buxton, Arraez loses a lot of value from metrics like WAR because of his reduced defensive value. And that's fair: no one would argue that Arraez impacts games with his glove like Buck in center or C4 at short. But the Twins didn't ask him to, or need it. What they needed him to do, after Miguel Sanó and Alex Kirilloff went down, was take over at first base, a position he had essentially never played before. Arraez is not exactly physically suited for the position either. But sure enough, he adapted quickly and proved to be a perfectly solid defender at first. Ultimately, I think that's what it came down to, and why the vote swung to Arraez. He simply showed up. He answered the call, time and time again. While the roster succumbed to injuries around him, he kept playing all year long, leading the team in plate appearances and games played (despite – as it's now easy to forget – being a healthy scratch on Opening Day!). By season's end, Arraez was the only worthwhile attraction for Twins fans, who could tune in to watch him battle Aaron Judge down to the wire, for a superficial honor, amidst a Triple-A lineup in a lost year. Arraez kept on showing up through the very last day, barely able to run and clearly limping, because he wanted "to win the batting title fighting." He did just that, and it's the fight he demonstrated down to the bitter end that likely helped elevate Arraez as the unlikely Twins Daily 2022 team MVP. FINAL BALLOTING POINTS TALLY Arraez: 55 Correa: 46 Buxton: 33 Durán: 27 Gray: 13 Miranda: 11 View full article

In a crummy season like this one, it's nice to have legitimate silver linings to fall back on. The 2022 Twins provided those, by receiving so many impact performances from major-league rookies with bright (cost-controlled) futures ahead of them that it was very difficult for our panel to settle on this award. Ultimately, the winner is flame-throwing phenom Jhoan Durán. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo, Twins Daily Twins Daily panelists had three excellent choices in front of them when trying to select the best rookie on this year's Twins team. Joe Ryan delivered one of the best rookie campaigns by a starting pitcher in team history, posting a 13-8 record and 3.55 ERA in 27 starts. He led the team in innings. José Miranda shook off a slow start after debuting in May with a torrid summer on the way to a 116 OPS+, 15 home runs, and a team-leading 66 RBIs. Both Ryan and Miranda were essential to keeping their respective units afloat. Ryan, outside of a bout with COVID, stayed healthy all year in an injury-plagued rotation, and was consistently effective for the most part. Miranda was at times the only credible threat in a slump-prone lineup, the antidote for an offense allergic to hitting with RISP. But I don't think anyone can argue against the fact that Jhoan Durán's importance to this year's bullpen is unparalleled. He was not only their most reliable reliever, but oftentimes their only reliable reliever. He did marvelous, magical things on the mound that Minnesota Twins fans (and major-league baseball fans) have never seen before. Durán was barely the choice for Twins Daily Rookie of the Year, beating out Miranda by an extremely slim margin, but he was absolutely the right choice. These five numbers explain why. Jhoan Duran's Spectacular Rookie Season, by the Numbers 103.8 MPH The radar reading on Durán's hardest fastball of the season, thrown on September 27th, setting a new Twins franchise record for fastest recorded pitch. Naturally, he broke his own record, set at 103.3 MPH back in May, which itself broke his own record set earlier that month. Durán's laser beam against Elvis Andrus of the White Sox was rounded up on the TV broadcast, flashing an absurd 104 MPH. 100.8 MPH The velocity of a "splinker" thrown by Durán on August 29th against Boston, becoming the first offspeed pitch in major-league history to clock at 100-plus MPH. It was one of the nastiest and most untouchable pitches ever witnessed, sending a hopeless Alex Verdugo to the bench on strike three. The presence of Durán's splitter-sinker combo alongside his red-hot heater is crucial to his success, giving batters the almost impossible task of deciphering which one's coming within a sliver of a second. While the right-hander's fastball velo is rare – only a select few pitchers like Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks operate in that realm – his "offspeed" juice is what truly sets him apart. No one else is coming close to this velocity on a splitter. He's a unicorn. Of course, all of this eye-popping velocity wouldn't mean much if he couldn't command it and throw it in the zone. But he did. 69.31% Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes by Durán, the 11th-best mark for any MLB reliever. He allowed only 16 walks in 67 ⅔ innings (2.1 BB/9), and issued multiple free passes in an appearance once all year. The dread felt by opposing hitters stepping in against the imposing 6-foot-5 specimen was only made worse by the fact that trying to coax a walk was unlikely to be fruitful. As Aaron Gleeman marveled at The Athletic not long ago: "He relentlessly pounds the strike zone with arguably the best raw stuff in the world, changing speeds and eye levels in a way that almost seems unfair. Duran is destined to be one of the greatest relievers in Twins history if they can keep him healthy. He’s unreal." 1.86 Durán's final ERA in 2022, the 7th-best mark for any reliever in Twins history. His combination of elite stuff and precision command have led to complete and total dominance for Durán, who held opponents to a .207 average and struck out more than a third of the batters he faced (33.5%). His 1.86 ERA trails only these six seasons from Twins relievers, half of which belong to the great Joe Nathan: Dennys Reyes, 2006 (0.89) Joe Nathan, 2008 (1.33) Al Worthington, 1964 (1.37) Joe Nathan, 2006 (1.58) Joe Nathan, 2004 (1.62) Caleb Thielbar, 2013 (1.76) Durán was at his best during the second half, posting a 1.05 ERA with only one home run allowed in 24 appearances. 4.59 Durán's final Win Probability Added, which led all American League pitchers and ranked second among MLB relievers. Only Daniel Bard of the Rockies made a bigger impact on his team's outcomes. To me, this measurement gets to the core of what made Durán so remarkable and indispensable. Not only was he putting absolutely ridiculous numbers against big-league hitters ... he was doing it against the BEST big-league hitters in the BIGGEST spots. Once Rocco Baldelli became aware of what he had in Durán, the reliever was permanently pushed into a "fireman" role. Nearly every appearance was under duress, with the game hanging in the balance, and the heart of the opposing order due up. To pitch so well, in such consistently difficult circumstances, as a rookie with 16 previous innings of experiences above Double-A ... it's incomprehensible. Among all MLB rookie relievers since 1990, only Jonathan Papelbon has posted a higher WPA than Durán did in 2022. That was in 2006, the first of four straight All-Star seasons for Papelbon. Amidst all of these amazing numbers, the most important one for Durán might be 57. That's the number of appearances he made for the Twins, staying healthy and strong all year long as a go-to linchpin in the bullpen after totaling five appearances last year, when a forearm strain derailed his season. For all the worst-case scenarios that played out with the Twins this year from a health standpoint, Durán completely shaking off last year's elbow issues was a direly needed exception to the rule. If he can continue to keep that golden arm rocking, he'll be a vital asset in whatever this team is trying to build. Durán's rookie season was one for the ages. FINAL VOTING POINTS TALLY: Durán: 42 Miranda: 40 Ryan: 31 Moran: 6 Winder: 3 Celestino: 3 Varland: 1 View full article

The Twins closed out their disappointing 2022 season last week with a series loss in Chicago. The results by this point were meaningless, but there are a few meaningful things we can take away from the team's last hurrah. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 10/3 through Weds, 10/5 *** Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 78-84) Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +12) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (14.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 160 | CWS 3, MIN 2: Ober, Urshela Not Enough Game 161 | CWS 8, MIN 3: Sox Lineup Proves Overpowering Game 162 | MIN 10, CWS 1: Twins Finish on a High Note NEWS & NOTES The MLB season doesn't typically conclude in the middle of the week, but as a byproduct of last offseason's lockout and delayed spring training, this three-game series between the Twins and White Sox – originally scheduled to open the season – was tacked onto the end of the schedule. Back when the change was first made, fans were sizing up the possibility of a decisive final showdown in the AL Central. As it turns out, Cleveland ran away with the division, rendering this add-on series in Chicago as little more than a begrudging formality. Many key Twins players did not make it back in time to close out the season. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Trevor Larnach, Tyler Mahle and Max Kepler were all among the sidelined players once expected to return who never did. Sonny Gray joined them on the injured list in mid-September with a hamstring strain and Trevor Megill went down with an oblique strain after unleashing a wild pitch in warmups – which nearly hurt one the only injured player who DID make it back, Ryan Jeffers. Even José Miranda, a relative iron man in this group rounding out a very impressive rookie season, got bitten by the bug on Tuesday as a pitch – amazingly – ricocheted off his wrist and directly into his face for one of the most painful-looking HBPs of the year. While not deemed serious, he came out of the game and didn't play in the season finale on Wednesday. Fittingly, the injuries just kept on coming right up until the bitter end for these Minnesota Twins. HIGHLIGHTS Hilariously, the Twins fielded a lineup with no Miranda, no Carlos Correa, and none of the injured players mentioned above in Wednesday's season finale ... and managed to put up double-digit runs for the first time in six weeks. Minnesota did have one remaining cornerstone in their lineup: Luis Arraez, batting leadoff at DH while fighting through an obviously nagging hamstring, all in the name of actively locking down his first batting title. He did just that, finishing 1-for-1 with two walks to secure the honor. It helped his cause that Aaron Judge, with whom Arraez was competing for the batting crown, slowed down in the final weeks as he pressed (successfully) for the AL home run record and then rested. Judge batted .216 from September 22nd onward, while Arraez batted .364 over the same span, giving himself a solid margin of victory with a final .316 mark. (It was still the lowest average to earn an AL batting title in more than 50 years, which says a lot about where the game is at.) A few other positives to extract from the final series in Chicago, which – reflective of the Twins season as a whole – ended with a positive run differential and losing record: Gio Urshela finished the season strong and ended it with an exclamation point. The veteran infielder slashed .333/.404/.425 after the start of September, including .463/.500/.585 in his last 11 games with a 4-for-10 effort and 2 RBIs in the final series. Dick Bremer opined during one of last week's broadcasts that Urshela would be his choice for team MVP, and while I personally wouldn't go that far, he's undoubtedly been one of the team's steadiest players, and has earned an arbitration tender for that reason. Bailey Ober didn't quite dominate the White Sox to the same degree he did a week prior at Target Field, but he closed out his truncated season in style on Monday with five innings of two-run ball. Ober struck out four and walked one while allowing just two hits to finalize these 2022 numbers: 11 GS, 56 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. Perhaps most notably, he allowed only four home runs (0.6 HR/9), correcting the biggest flaw in his game as a rookie when he allowed 1.9 HR/9. A tremendous sophomore campaign in almost every regard, with the glaring exception of two-thirds being wiped out by his groin injury. Ober has entrenched himself as a homegrown mainstay in the future rotation plans, and Louie Varland is looking to do the same. He too closed out strong, starting the season finale and tossing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and no walks. Varland, who was named Twins minor league pitcher of the year for a second straight season, made five starts during his September audition in the big leagues, and looked eminently capable. In 26 innings he posted a 3.81 ERA and 21-to-6 K/BB ratio, completing at least five frames each time out. LOWLIGHTS While Ober and Varland finished on high notes, the same cannot be said for Josh Winder, who unfortunately has probably removed himself from a firm place in the team's rotation planning with a tumultuous season, and a final start that was emblematic. Winder was wildly ineffective against a watered-down White Sox lineup on Tuesday, lasting only 2 ⅓ innings before being lifted. He was charged with four earned runs on five hits and a walk, raising his ERA to 4.70. It was a familiar story for Winder: the velocity was there, but his fastball was nonetheless quite hittable (hitters batted .351 and slugged .713 against it this year), and the secondary stuff inconsistent. His control was amiss, with only 38 of 69 pitches finding the strike zone. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Winder has plenty of time to get back on track, but there's a long way to go in regaining the confidence he'd earned by the start of this 2022 season, when the Twins surprisingly snuck him onto their Opening Day roster. Also failing to gain confidence in this final stretch was Minnesota's makeshift outfield. It's tough to be without your full complement of starters – Buxton, Kepler, Alex Kirilloff – and even a bunch of key depth pieces in Larnach, Kyle Garlick, and Royce Lewis. Still, that doesn't fully excuse how woefully inadequate the replacement crew was. Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave and Mark Contreras combined to go 2-for-29 in Chicago, contributing to an offense that could get nothing going in the first two games. The 27-year-old Contreras struggled overall in his major-league debut, slashing just .121/.148/.293 with a ghastly 21-to-1 K/BB ratio in 28 games, but he popped a few homers and showed some defensible chops. The presence of Contreras will probably (hopefully) be enough to push Cave – suddenly about to be 30 and arbitration-eligible – out of the picture going forward. Celestino, on the other hand, projects as more of an important part of the team's planning. His first full MLB season was a major improvement on a brutal 2021 debut, but the outfielder still rated out as merely replacement level. His offensive game was uninspiring and often punchless. His glove and legs showed promise, but Celestino managed to offset many of his positives with mental gaffes and baffling miscues. It's unfortunate that Celestino's development was so disturbed by the necessities of an injury-raved big-league club over the past two years. He needed more time to refine his hitting in the high minors, and the Twins could not afford to give it to him. It bears noting that Celly is still only 23, the same age as Lewis and Austin Martin. It's understandable that Celestino is lagging behind a bit, given his circumstances. But next year he's gonna need to show that he's catching up. TRENDING STORYLINE The offseason lies ahead. It'll be a very intriguing one for the Twins, who have some pivotal decisions in front of them. In some senses, this team is raring to go for a comeback in 2023. They'll return most of their core players – hopefully with much better health – and the aforementioned season-ending highlights offer reason for excitement: the reigning batting champ, Ober's continued emergence, and a minor-league pitcher/hitter of the year who debuted in September and look primed for immediate impact Then again, the Twins will head into the offseason plagued by lingering health concerns around key assets. They face the likelihood of losing one of their most valuable players in Correa, who's set to opt out shortly after the World Series. While they'd have money to spend in that event, the options available to replace him – and to bring much-needed stability to the top of the rotation and bullpen – are quite limited. Like I said, plenty of intrigue and no shortage of question marks. We'll be covering it all as it happens here at Twins Daily, where the baseball season never ends. 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This is actually an interesting comparison. As many will recall, Kubel was somewhat of a Kirilloff-esque hitting prospect (lefty slugger with rare combo of contact and power) before suffering that horrible knee injury in the 2006 AFL. He never ended up fulfilling his initial upside but he did carve out a very solid MLB career, playing more than 1,000 games with a 108 OPS+. Hopefully with this surgery Kirilloff can find a way.

It's no secret: The top imperative for 2023 is a healthier season that enables the Twins to keep their best players on the field more often. Unfortunately, several of this year's injury concerns will spill over into the next thanks to a series of ambiguous, challenging situations afflicting key fixtures in the team's planning. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Usually, the end of a season like this one – promising but sabotaged to the core by an outrageous abundance of injuries – brings sweet relief. The offseason, theoretically, provides an opportunity for banged-up players to get right and return in the spring at 100% physically. In the cases of many Twins, it's difficult to envision things going so smoothly. Here's a look at seven players – all varying levels of vital to the 2023 outlook – who will have their unusual injury concerns and uncertainties ripple forward into next year. Tyler Mahle, SP No one could seem to figure out what was wrong with Mahle's shoulder this year. Not the Reds, not the Twins, not the pitcher himself ... certainly not any outside observer. His issue was described in different ways at different points – strain, soreness, fatigue, inflammation – but throughout out it all, repeated exams showed no structural damage. So, we don't know what's going on. What we do know is that Mahle's final two attempts to pitch this season saw him induce three swinging strikes on 74 pitches while flashing significantly reduced velocity, getting removed after two innings in each. Now he's got an offseason to rest up and get right. But, what does "getting right" mean when no one could pinpoint what was wrong to begin with? This is one scenario where I feel like the Twins front office and medical staff are getting a bit of an unfair shake. They gambled on Mahle because his scans were clean and he was pitching well at the time. He kept pitching well for a bit. Then the shoulder troubles resurfaced, yet the scans remained clean. Pointing fingers at team doctors is easy but misguided. It's not like they aren't consulting outside specialists at the top of their field. The reality is that for all of our advances, sports medicine remains an inexact and often mysterious science. Mahle is a good example. He's hardly the only one. Byron Buxton, CF I'm not going to act like this is anything new. Buxton, obviously, has to be viewed as an availability question mark heading into every season. But at least last year he didn't carry any blatant health burdens directly into the offseason. In 2021, Buxton played through the end of the schedule and flat-out mashed down the stretch, posting a 1.001 OPS with nine homers after September 1st. His broken hand had healed, and he was seemingly past the hip strain that earlier cost him six weeks. This year, that same hip forced him back to the injured list. That's in addition to a persistent right knee tendinitis, with both trending toward the dreaded "chronic" category of classification. These dark clouds will hover over Buxton, recipient of a new $100 million contract, for the foreseeable future. Outside of an ostensibly minor procedure conducted last week to clean up scar tissue and frayed ligaments in his knee, there's nothing but hope to guide us toward a significantly better outcome for Buxton next year. "What ends up typically happening is the scar tissue and otherwise creates more of that inflammation when you pound on it. So, now let's clear out some of that and hopefully that'll alleviate some of that stress going forward," said chief baseball officer Derek Falvey. Hopefully. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Perhaps the most perplexing and inscrutable health situation among many faced by the Twins franchise. In August of 2021, Kirilloff underwent season-ending surgery to address a torn wrist ligament, with the hope that creating more spacing would alleviate the pain experienced while engaging his elite swing. It didn't work. Or at least not for long. Kiriloff battled more pain in spring training and the early season, took a short break, went to Triple-A, dominated for a month, returned to the majors, and then it all came roaring back. The pain, the warped swing mechanics, the endless ground balls. Cortisone injections offered only brief respite from his performance-draining affliction. Thus, Kirilloff and the Twins turned to a last-ditch option: a more invasive surgery that involves "breaking the ulna and shortening it before the insertion of a metal plate and screws," another effort to create space in his wrist. "I really hope it doesn’t get to that," the 24-year-old had lamented earlier in the season. While relatively common for the general population, this procedure is rare for professional athletes and there aren't many past examples to reference. In a recent update to the media, Falvey mentioned that Kirilloff "hasn't ramped up his hitting progression yet," adding that there have been no setbacks or delays but "we just don't want him to hit yet." Kirilloff had undergone the surgery six weeks prior, for whatever that's worth. I want so badly to feel optimistic about Kirilloff because his talent level and upside can be game-changing for this franchise – if only he could tap them for a prolonged period on the field. But it's getting really difficult to find that optimism, and his wayward status creates all sorts of planning headaches for the front office. Royce Lewis, SS Speaking of planning headaches, we have the shortstop position. Lewis showed the makings of a long-term fixture during his brief audition this year, but unfortunately that concluded in late May when he re-tore the very same knee ligament he'd just spent a year rehabbing from reconstructive surgery. In somewhat positive news, he only partially tore the ACL this time, and surgeons put a novel twist on his second knee operation; mentions of a "brace" being involved in this variation led Lucas Seehafer to conclude they employed a technique called lateral tenodesis. While promising in its potential to prevent another injury, Lucas framed this technique as somewhat experimental, adding that "the long-term outcomes for this procedure in the athletic population, and specifically the MLB population, [are] unknown." Even if he's able to come back with a structurally sound, twice-repaired knee ligament, it remains to be seen whether Lewis will be able to maintain the full speed, quickness, and lateral agility that were on display even after his first surgery. Like Kirilloff, Lewis brings much to the table as a building block for this franchise, which makes his uncertainty all the more unfortunate, surfarcing some difficult short-term decisions for the front office with regards to the future at shortstop. Chris Paddack, SP The Twins knew they were taking on risk when they acquired Paddack as the centerpiece of the Taylor Rogers trade, but even in that context, they've pretty much stumbled into a worst-case scenario. Paddack made it through five starts before the partial tear in his UCL, already once repaired via Tommy John surgery, gave way and necessitated to a second TJ procedure. The history of pitchers who have undergone this ligament replacement surgery twice is not the most encouraging. Mike Clevinger, one of the most accomplished pitchers to undergo a Tommy John revision surgery (in November 2020), returned to action this year and while he's managed to throw more than 100 innings, Clevinger is nowhere near his pre-surgery form. There are complicated realities at play with getting this repair a second time that have diminished the rate of success. "On average, the typical TJ revision isn’t as successful as the typical primary TJ,” said Dr. Andrew Cosgarea, an orthopedic surgeon and professor, in a story for the San Diego Union-Tribune. "The first time you drill a hole in the bone it is fresh and clean, but if it happens again you already have a hole there and that hole is filled with scar tissue. … Scar tissue isn’t as healthy as original tissue. It doesn’t have the same blood supply; (it is) not as durable.” Paddack has already acknowledged that he's realistically targeting an August return next year, setting expectations for a 14-month recovery time and reducing the likelihood he'll be able to make a significant impact in 2023. We probably should collectively drop the notion of Paddack pitching in the Twins rotation again before his team control expires after 2024. Kenta Maeda, SP Relatively speaking, Maeda's outlook is less complicated than Paddack's since he's coming off his first Tommy John surgery. However, the veteran righty still hasn't taken the mound 13 months after his own procedure "with a twist" – an internal brace designed to shorten the recovery timetable from the typical 12-16 months down to 9-12. Alas, he'll be nearly 18 months removed by the time he hits the mound again next spring in Ft. Myers. That Maeda didn't make it back this year isn't a big deal – the timing of his surgery late last year was always going to make it tough, and the Twins being out of contention in September rendered it a moot point. The bigger concern here is that he'll be a 35-year-old coming back from significant elbow surgery and a very long layoff, with 173 total innings pitched over the past three seasons. It's hard to foresee him successfully taking on a full starter's workload in his final year under contract, so I'll be curious to see how he fits into the 2022 plan. Josh Winder, SP Winder was limited to 72 innings last year, and will finish near the same total this year, because of recurring "shoulder impingement" issues that he and the club appear unable to fully diagnose or solve. “He’s felt good for periods of time. He’s thrown the ball well for periods of time. There’s no singular reason why we’re looking at this and thinking, ‘Well, this is why this is happening,’ to be honest,” manager Rocco Baldelli said in late July, shortly after Winder had been placed on IL for a second time with what was by then being termed impingement syndrome. “It’s just soreness that keeps creeping back in there.” Winder wouldn't make it back to the big-league mound for another seven weeks after that, and while he was able to return for four starts in September, he wasn't very effective, posting a 5.59 ERA in 19 ⅓ innings. Much like with Mahle, it's difficult to feel confident in an injury clearing up when nobody can get to the bottom of it. Winder, for his part, has suggested he "might just be at a predisposition for this type of injury." Which makes him pretty challenging to plan around, and that's a big hit because he showed the makings of a signature product of this front office's pitching pipeline. The Twins liked him so much they went out of their way to keep him on the Opening Day pitching staff this year. They were envisioning him as an integral part of their rotation mix this year. I don't see how they can keep doing so going forward. An Uncertain Future In the recent media scrum where he updated a litany of injury situations, Falvey remarked on the avalanche of IL stints that buried the team this year, reasoning that – to some extent – you're at the mercy of fate. Like all things in baseball, injuries ebb and flow. "I'm hopeful, for a lot of reasons that this is our spike-up year and that there's some regression built in going forward," Falvey said. A reasonable mindset, from a basic analytical standpoint. And yet, as these seven examples show, many of the dismal developments in the spike-up year that was 2022 could prove thorny going forward. View full article

Promising young pitchers worked toward ending their seasons on strong notes and a top prospect debuted as the Twins search for silver linings in playing out the final days of a disappointing season – now guaranteed to conclude with a sub-.500 record. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/26 through Sun, 10/2 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 77-82) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +10) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (13.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 154 | MIN 4, CWS 0: Ober Dominates Sox with 10 Ks Game 155 | MIN 8, CWS 4: Heart of the Order Comes Through Game 156 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Late Defensive Lapse Costly in Loss Game 157 | MIN 7, DET 0: Ryan Masterful in Another Shutout Game 158 | DET 3, MIN 2: Missed Opportunities Mount In Motown Game 159 | DET 5, MIN 2: Bats Quiet Again in SWR's Debut NEWS & NOTES Not many of the Twins' injured players are going to make it back this year. But to his credit, Ryan Jeffers did. His rehab and recovery from a fractured thumb to longer than expected, and the catcher position was an offensive black hole in his absence, but ultimately Jeffers did make it back for the end of the season and that means something. Jeffers got plenty of action in his first week back, starting three times and appearing twice as a substitute. He went 3-for-15 with a triple and a couple of RBIs. On Sunday, Jeffers was behind the plate for the major-league debut of pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, who had just completed a stellar season in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A (107.1 IP, 2.77 ERA). Five days removed from his 22nd birthday, the right-hander got the nod for Minnesota's series finale in Detroit, with his hilariously long last name wrapping fully around the No. 78 on his newly minted Twins jersey. It was an altogether strong outing for Woods Richardson, who allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings of work. He settled in pretty nicely after a shaky 29-pitch first inning and showed impressive poise – especially considering he became the youngest pitcher to appear in the majors this year (narrowly edging Ronny Henriquez who was optioned to make room for SWR). HIGHLIGHTS Joe Ryan ended a strong rookie campaign on a high note, with six innings of shutout ball against the Tigers on Friday night. In a season that brought his weaknesses to light – namely, a proneness to homers and vulnerability against high-caliber offenses – Ryan also cemented himself as a quality mid-rotation MLB starter. The flip side to his struggles against postseason teams is that Ryan was sublime when facing lesser lineups. Against sub-.500 competition he went 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate. Let's not act like this doesn't have value. Succeeding to that extent against any major-league lineups is impressive, and in particular Ryan was hyper-effective versus divisional opponents, against whom he finished 10-0 with a 1.23 ERA. He might not be the kind of starter you want toeing the rubber in a postseason game – not in his current state, which isn't to say he can't change that – but at the very least Ryan is proving to be a big regular-season asset. And currently, he is the club's sturdiest long-term asset in the rotation, coming off a mostly healthy and complete season. The same unfortunately cannot be said for Bailey Ober, otherwise he'd be right there in the conversation with Ryan as the stablest building block. Ober's start against Chicago on Tuesday night was just his 10th here in a season that was torpedoed by a major groin injury. But at least the big righty is finishing strong and setting the foundation for a fuller campaign in 2023. Kicking off the final home series at Target Field, Ober delivered the best performance of his young career, striking out 10 over 7 ⅓ shutout innings. The Sox legit had no chance against him as his late release point seemed to be stymying hitters more than ever. When he's been able to take the mound this year, the 27-year-old has been arguably the team's most effective starter, posting a 3.18 ERA, 2.74 FIP and 47-to-10 K/BB ratio with just three home runs allowed in 51 innings. Something to carry forward into next season, even if he won't have much of a workload base to build off in 2023. With Ryan and Ober finishing on high notes, Woods Richardson and Louie Varland getting late-season tastes of the majors, and Josh Winder making it back onto the field for a handful of starts, there are at least some positive youthful signs in a rotation closing out the year with its three top veterans on the injured list. The Twins lineup, meanwhile, is also severely diminished as they play out these final games. But it was nice to see some of the remaining bats step up and carry the load over the past week. Standout performers included Jake Cave (7-for-19, three RBIs) and Matt Wallner (double, homer, and five RBIs). Gio Urshela, who's capping off a solid season with a spectacular September, kept it rolling as the driving force in the offense, finishing the week 10-for-23 with some timely hits in big spots. Urshela has the fifth-best Win Probability Added on the team this year, and since the All-Star break he is second only to Carlos Correa. While the decision of whether or not to tender Urshela a contract in his coming final season of arbitration was once up in the air, his stellar finish probably seals it, although it remains possible the Twins could trade him if there's interest. LOWLIGHTS Nick Gordon's breakthrough season at the plate has been a big positive for the Twins in a year full of negatives. The past week saw him batting third in the lineup several times, albeit failing to live up that billing with a 3-for-20 sample. Regardless, Gordon's ability to hit is no longer really in question. His defensive versatility, on the other hand? The 26-year-old has been pressed into more into more intensive action at second base with Jorge Polanco sidelined, and it hasn't gone very smoothly. Gordon's been very susceptible to misplays at the position, including a costly dropped pop-up on Thursday that led to the decisive run scoring in a 4-3 loss. Looking ahead to next year, some have speculated that Gordon could be considered as a short-term plug at shortstop until Royce Lewis is ready to rejoin the fold. I don't think so. In fact, I genuinely wonder if what they Twins have seen from Gordon as an infielder late in this season will convince them that his future should exclusively be in the outfield. TRENDING STORYLINE At this point, the only remaining Twins storyline of intrigue is Luis Arraez's pursuit of his first batting title – or, as the rest of the baseball world might view it, his quest to deprive Aaron Judge of a triple crown. The Twins helped Arraez's chances over the weekend by sitting him against both of Detroit's left-handed starters. This favorable usage helped the infielder bat .389 (7-for-18) on the week, concluding play on Sunday with a 4-point edge over Judge (.315 to .311) after the latter went 0-for-3 on Sunday. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins have three games remaining, all against right-handed starters, so presumably Arraez will be in there for the entire series against the White Sox, looking to make a closing statement of his own and wrap up the 2022 AL batting title. Judge and the Yankees wrap their season in Texas with three games against the Rangers. MONDAY, 10/3: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Johnny Cueto TUESDAY, 10/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Josh Winder v. RHP Lucas Giolito WEDNESDAY, 10/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Louie Varland v. RHP Davis Martin View full article

I guess that where we seem to differ is that for me, B relates very strongly to A, and A is largely out of their control. Maybe you disagree, but when they've been healthy, I see franchise cornerstone ability in guys like Lewis and Kirilloff. Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco have all been All-Stars in the past few years. Guys like Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino ... they look like quality arms to me, but we just haven't been able to see them in extended form yet. Obviously their system took a huge hit this year due to their top position player prospect (Martin) and pitching prospect (Balazovic) oddly tanking and I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'm not ready to write either one off. I'd say the front office is behind schedule on the pitching side but I guess I'm a little more forgiving than most given the timing of the pandemic, which threw every developing pitcher's workload progression out of whack, and the fact that they've shown some results with guys like Duran, Jax, Ryan. I can't stress enough how bad of shape this system was in pitching-wise when the new regime came aboard.

If you don't build and succeed around your own top draft picks turned top prospects, then what are you going to do? There is no path to contention unless you play in Los Angeles or New York (and even the Dodgers/Yankees are built primarily upon internally developed talent). The Twins can't just compile a championship roster out of free agency. It is not possible in practical terms. They also can't trade for a bunch of value when their best players have the injury issues to which you allude. So what do you suggest if not to get behind the core(s) and hope for better returns?

I would just like to express my appreciation for this ?

I can only speak for myself but I don't see this "constant stream," here or elsewhere. I mostly see criticism of the front office as this lost season plays out, which is warranted. Mostly I'm trying to add some counterbalance and perspective. I liked most of the moves they made, when they made them, so I'm not gonna sit here and whine about them in hindsight. If you were expecting more from Correa or Gray, you probably weren't being realistic. Frankly if you were expecting much from the pitching staff, you probably weren't being realistic. Building a great staff out of an essentially empty cupboard is a lot to ask. If the Twins were going to be good, it was gonna need to be driven largely by the 5 guys I wrote about. They came up short and need to be shouldering this season as much as anyone. That's something I don't see people talking enough about. There is 10X more complaining about the Twins signing Dylan Bundy, which had a VASTLY smaller effect on the team's failure than 5 core "everyday" players doing NOTHING in the second half.

You can't do it without your core. No amount of managerial savvy or front office maneuvering can offset the devastating impact of a foundational core that simply doesn't show up. That will go down as the lasting epitaph for the 2022 Minnesota Twins, who were officially eliminated from division contention over the weekend. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports So: the front office. They've had more than their fair share of missteps, and it's natural to focus on underwhelming acquisitions like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Emilio Pagán. But there's a dirty little secret: their two biggest moves of the offseason paid off handsomely. Minnesota traded its best young pitching prospect for a frontline starter in Sonny Gray to stabilize the top of the rotation in the absence of José Berríos. Gray, despite missing time on a few occasions, came through with an excellent season, posting a 3.08 ERA over 119.2 IP while leading all Twins pitchers in fWAR (2.4). By investing modestly in pitching and clearing out Josh Donaldon's salary, the Twins were able to acquire the top free agent on the market late in the offseason. That move also has been successful – Carlos Correa has put together a customarily excellent year, leading the team overall in fWAR (4.1) while slashing .289/.365/.468 through 128 games. True to his rep, Correa's been stepping up his production here in the stretch run. The idea was that those contributions would be meaningful because he'd be melding with a greater veteran core to lead the charge for a contending team. Correa wasn't supposed to carry the load single-handedly, as he mostly has been throughout the second half. He was supposed to be combining powers with the likes of Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Among position players who are still here, those five led all Twins in fWAR between 2020 and 2021. They are homegrown talents the organization has been cultivating for many years. Three are under long-term contracts – the only extensions this front office has handed out to inherited players from the previous regime. All are in the heart of their prototypical primes, with ages ranging from 25 to 29. These were the building blocks. They've earned that standing. And you know what? The plan was working for a while. As recently as July 13th, the Twins were eight games above .500 at 49-41, and 4 ½ games up in the AL Central. By that point, the five players mentioned above had combined to be worth 10.3 fWAR, and the first two – Buxton and Arraez – were days away from appearing in their first All-Star Game. Since then, the Twins have gone 25-38, with all five combining for 1.6 fWAR in well over a third of the season. That includes 1.2 fWAR from Buxton, who somehow managed to put up .275/.370/.513 in 23 more games before succumbing to his knee and hip injuries – meaning the other four franchise staples have collectively been barely above replacement level over a prolonged stretch of the season where the team experienced a 15-game freefall in the standings. What more is there to say? Yes, injuries are the main headline of this season and they certainly played a big role in the drop-off from this group, but all that aside: the core came up woefully short when it counted most. Again. So the question is: where do we go from here? The front office's strategy was structured around supplementing this tenured nucleus to make a push in 2022-23, while waiting for the next wave – Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee – to hopefully take center stage. But none of those players can really be counted on heading into 2023, for various reasons, so the Twins might need to consider making some short-term adjustments. Max Kepler stands out as the clearest candidate to be displanted. He presents quite the conundrum, under contract for one more year at $8.5 million (with a $10 million team option for 2024). On the one hand, he was clearly one of the single biggest culprits in the Twins' implosion, slashing a Sandy Leon-esque .179/.241/.226 since the All-Star break with a negative WPA. Despite showing flashes of greatness at times, Kepler has made a habit out of not showing up for the Twins when they need him. He's a career .056 hitter in the playoffs, with one hit in 18 at-bats. He's been at his absolute worst this year when the team has been forced to rely on him heavily amidst a barrage of injuries. On the other hand, Kepler still has undeniably intriguing traits. He remains an elite defensive right fielder. Before completely unraveling in the second half, he appeared to be on his way to an excellent year, pacing the team in fWAR with 1.6 for the first two months. It's reasonable to think that the new defensive shifting limitations will be positive for his hitting results. And even here in what's clearly been the worst season of his career from a production standpoint ... Kepler's measurables via Statcast are still really, really good: Personally I feel ready to move on from Kepler despite all of the above, especially with Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner all on hand as promising young RF options. The $8.5 million owed to Kepler could be better used elsewhere, and perhaps he'd benefit from a change of scenery as his game stagnates here in Minnesota. The redeeming qualities of his profile make it likely that some team will be open to taking on Kepler and his relatively favorable contract. The Twins might actually be able to get some value in return, although the 29-year-old's bottomed-out stock position doesn't help. Odds of Kepler being traded this offseason could probably be set at around 50:50. Everyone else is much less likely to move. The Twins could possibly find a suitor for Arraez or Polanco. Their contractual situations are even more team-friendly than Kepler's – Arraez has three years of arbitration ahead, while Polanco is owed $7.5 million next year followed by two team options. But to me, the backup options behind both of them are less compelling, and their impact is less replaceable than Kepler's. I don't find my faith in either shaken to the same degree. Jeffers won't be traded, since he's the sole major-league catching depth in the organization. Where he's concerned, the key decision – as Gary Sánchez heads to free agency – is whether the Twins should remain committed to him as their 1A catcher, seeking out a León-esque caddy for the minor timeshare. I'm not sure Jeffers has shown the ability or durability to be viewed as a cornerstone at the position, and at age 25 it's hard to project a lot of additional upside. The Twins will have a lot of spending money available this offseason if they're unable to retain Carlos Correa, with no especially obvious places to spend it. That is, unless they decide to set their sights on top free agent catcher Willson Contreras and completely reshape their future behind the plate. These are the kinds of pivots that need to be on the table as the Twins re-evaluate their fundamental makeup of a roster that has now failed to get it done in back-to-back seasons. View full article

Note: I updated the story to remove the erroneous reference to Lewis hugging Hamilton. Thank you to a reader for pointing it out! When you don't have an editor it is nice to have an audience that can quickly fact-check you. Anyway, point still stands. Lewis is that guy.

When you talk to people about Royce Lewis and what makes him special, you will invariably hear about his intangible character and leadership qualities. While difficult to quantify, there is undoubtedly value in having the 'it' factor. Even in another season wrecked by injury, the former No. 1 overall pick is finding ways to show up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports In a parallel dimension of the multiverse – where there was no pandemic-ruined season, no ACL tear suffered on a freak offseason incident, no ACL re-tear suffered on an outfield wall collision – Royce Lewis would already be an established MLB player. He finished 2019 in Double-A before all that went down. He's a big-league talent, as we saw in a limited glimpse this year. Alas, just as he was getting going, calamity struck and Lewis had another season wiped out. He never pouted about it. And here as this lost season winds down, it's been noticeable to me how present he's been in the dugout. Whenever the camera flashes down in that direction during a game, you seem to see Lewis – with his whole 12 games of major-league experience – leaning over the railing, smiling, engaged in a conversation with some veteran teammate he's barely shared the field with. Somehow it's like he's been there for years. He's a natural. But as we discussed, Lewis hasn't been there for years. He's been sidetracked and derailed at every turn. So he can relate to anyone trying to savor that moment of triumphant accomplishment. The trials he's gone through give him a unique empathy and relatability to so many players throughout this organization, which is a strength he shares with the manager. I tend to think Lewis is gaining a lot of value from spending so much time around the big-leaguers and soaking in the experience. It will help prepare him for a role he's set to inherit that seems equally unfilled as starting shortstop: the more energetic and active clubhouse leader to counterbalance Byron Buxton's quiet confidence. A genuinely humble former first overall pick who's gained the perspective of going through hell injury-wise, and seems equally comfortable talking to an MVP-caliber veteran or a fringy minor-leaguer. That's Royce Lewis. He can become the connective glue of a clubhouse that figures to soon begin transitioning from a veteran core featuring the likes of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to an emerging young wave headlined by Lewis as well as fellow former first-rounders Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin. The timing of his knee rehab, which will carry over into the 2023 season, makes things a bit challenging, but the Twins would be silly not to make Lewis a central part of their plan. With a central locker location in the clubhouse. [EDITOR'S NOTE; This story was updated to remove a mistaken reference to Royce Lewis and Caleb Hamilton embracing in the dugout. Turns out they just look similar from behind.] View full article

The book is closed on Minnesota's 2022 postseason chances, and the Twins are sure playing like it. This past week saw an injury-ravaged, undermanned, seemingly disinterested team going through the motions to play out a soul-crushing second half of a sunken season. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/19 through Sun, 9/25 *** Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 74-79) Run Differential Last Week: -19 (Overall: -1) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (12.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 147 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Guardians Humiliate Twins in Final Match-up Game 148 | KC 5, MIN 4: Bundy Bad, Bats Fizzle After Strong Start Game 149 | KC 5, MIN 2: Offense Lifeless Outside of Wallner's 2 RBIs Game 150 | KC 4, MIN 1: Lifeless Twins Swept by Lowly Royals Game 151 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Twins Can't Overcome Ohtani, Fall to Angels Game 152 | MIN 8, LAA 4: Losing Streak Snapped Behind Bats, Bullpen Game 153 | LAA 10, MiN 3: Halos Pull Away Late to Take Series NEWS & NOTES With contention now firmly out of the picture following a dozen-game slide in the standings over the past three weeks – from tied for first on September 4th to 12 games out on September 25th – the Twins are starting to pack it in and make preparations for the offseason and beyond. Step 1: taking action on Byron Buxton's broken-down body. The team announced on Friday that Buxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean up scar tissue in the right knee that's bothered him for nearly the entire season. The hope is that this procedure, along with several months to rest his ailing hip, will put Buxton in a solid place physically heading into next spring, so he can take another shot at getting through a full season. He finishes 2022 with 92 games played and 382 plate appearances, both the second-highest totals of his career. He also posted 4+ Wins Above Replacement for a second straight year. Another solid yet ultimately unfulfilling campaign. Elsewhere... Sonny Gray went on the injured list with a hamstring strain, which drained his velocity in a brutal Monday start against Cleveland where he allowed four runs in two innings. Very reminiscent to the final start in Chicago from Tyler Mahle (also now confirmed out for the season). Louie Varland was recalled to join the rotation again, probably for the rest of the year. Trevor Megill was activated from COVID IL. Drew Strotman, designated for assignment last weekend, was claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. Dereck Rodriguez was outrighted to the Saints. Aaron Sanchez was also DFA'ed. HIGHLIGHTS The only real highlight of this miserable stretch of play was Matt Wallner, who is taking advantage of his late-season audition by showing what he can do with the stick. The 24-year-old found himself in the starting lineup for five of six games and delivered four hits with two doubles, two RBIs, and two walks. On Tuesday in Kansas City, Wallner provided the totality of Minnesota's meager offensive output, driving in two runs with three hits on the way to a 5-2 loss. He's making hard contact and showing the pop that helped produce 27 homers and a .542 slugging percentage between Double-A and Triple-A this season. An especially impressive aspect of Wallner's initial play was how he was keeping the whiffs in check, with only eight strikeouts in his first seven games, but on Friday and Saturday against Los Angeles he went 0-for-7 with six Ks. Growing pains for the young lefty slugger – but that's what these meaningless final games are for. LOWLIGHTS No, the pitching has not been especially good. Losing Gray from an already depleted staff only further diminishes a group that's been doing little to help the cause. Jorge López's complete meltdown on Monday (0.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 ER) was beyond discouraging and concerning. But let's be real: the offense is primarily responsible for dragging this team into a humiliating abyss. They scored more than four runs in a game just once all all week, and have done so five times in the entire month of September. Yeah, it hurts to be forced to use Jermaine Palacios – who is 0-for-33 with 15 strikeouts in the month of September – semi-regularly. And obviously it hurts to be without the likes of Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. But there are also key players who had been productive and now are just fading away completely. José Miranda went 6-for-25, all of his hits singles, with no RBIs. He is slashing just .261/.328/.384 with five homers in 52 games since the start of August. When Miranda first arrived on the scene, he was an ignitor and catalyst for the Twins offense, mashing homers with frequency and driving in runs reliably. That has since gone completely amiss, though he's continued to bat third or fourth almost everyday (and leadoff on Sunday!). Another underrated culprit in the team's demise, unfortunately: Luis Arraez. His once-firm grasp on the AL batting race has given way and he's now fallen to third, paving way for an Aaron Judge triple crown bid. The hits just continue to not fall for Arraez, who has only two multi-hit games in his past 12 and is batting .237/.256/.237 during this span. That can be how it goes when you don't have any power – his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 7% of all MLB hitters – and, as of late, no patience. Arraez has drawn only one walk in the entire month of September, where he has a .302 on-base percentage. His All-Star first half has been followed by a sub-mediocre second half – since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.3 fWAR in 54 games. Although, again, it should be noted that he's clearly playing nowhere near 100% as a hamstring issue hobbles him continuously. He has the second-worst WPA on the team since the start of August. (Miranda is fourth-worst, with Palacios and Mark Contreras occupying the other two spots. Two of those names you'd probably expect.) TRENDING STORYLINE With several players in the late stages of rehab here as this lost season draws to a close, the team must try to balance the value of getting them back on the field to finish on a positive note, versus the value of simply shutting them down and letting them get early starts on their offseasons. They've already chosen the latter path with Buxton and it seems they're inclined to take the same route with Polanco, although he hasn't officially been ruled out. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach all have a decent chance to return in the coming week, for whatever that is worth. LOOKING AHEAD There is not an ounce of competitive drama left to extract from this season – even the White Sox, who Twins might have been motivated to spoil in six remaining match-ups, have already taken themselves out of contention. With that said, this is our last full week of Twins baseball until 2023, so try to enjoy these remaining moments. I know I'll be getting out to Target Field one last time for during the final home series against the White Sox, which will feature a trio of internally developed Twins starters who figure to be key parts of next year's plan. TUESDAY, 9/27: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 9/28: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Josh Winder THURSDAY, 9/29: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito vs RHP Louie Varland FRIDAY, 9/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Drew Hutchison SATURDAY, 10/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Tyler Alexander SUNDAY, 10/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Joey Wentz View full article

Seems doubtful since they weren't really doing it before this year (and seemingly turned to it as a response to nobody wanting to come here). Starting pitchers have averaged more innings per start under Rocco than the typical MLB SP during his tenure.

Both have a negative Win Probability Added and significantly below-average ERA so that seems like wishful thinking to me. More realistically, if either one was here (or both) and playing like they have, everyone would be complaining that the front office wasn't proactive in moving them.

Takes two to tango. I feel like it's been made pretty clear that free agent pitchers generally don't want to come here, so that's not really an avenue for "building the pitching staff." Not sure it realistically is for any mid-market team? If they used the Correa money on pitching, would their outcome have really been any different? Again: signing him (to become their most valuable player) and relying on the internal arms was a measured risk, and a reasonable one. Then they got basically nothing from Paddack, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, or Canterino. Traded for Mahle to alleviate the shortage and got basically nothing from him.