Nick Nelson

A potential leak from MLB apparel partner New Era might have accidentally given fans a glimpse of the Twins rebrand that has been teased. Image courtesy of Uni-Watch.com The above image comes courtesy of the website Uni Watch, which is built around a singular obsession with sports uniforms. They note that the subtle logo redesign appeared in the Twins cap from a new "southwestern"-themed line of team hats from New Era. Twenty-nine results come up when you search the new theme, with Minnesota conspicuously excluded. However, it seems the Twins iteration was briefly featured, and "an enterprising fan got a screen shot of it before the link was disabled." Why was the Twins cap removed? The logical conclusion, and one reached by Uni Watch, is that it revealed an embargoed brand update, which can be pretty clearly distinguished in the side-by-side comparison. It's hardly a drastic overhaul, but the classic "TC" logo has been streamlined and sharpened up, with a look that hints at the more "modernized" feel that's been promised. I will emphasize that, as author Paul Lukas noted at Uni Watch, "We can’t know with 100% certainty that this logo tweak will be part of the Twins’ new uniform package, but it seems likely." In addition to having no official verification, even if legit this is likely one small element in what's being billed as a more substantial and expansive brand update. What are your inital thoughts on these tweaks to the traditonal "TC" lettering? View full article

With this week's focus on the catcher position, there's plenty of talk about who the Twins might pursue to share time with (or supplant?) Ryan Jeffers in 2023 and beyond. I find myself pondering a more big-picture question, which itself – in a way – has implications on the team's decision making: Have we seen the last catcher win a batting title? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports This past season, Luis Arraez became the first Minnesota Twin to claim a batting title since Joe Mauer last did it in 2009. That was, of course, an MVP season for Mauer, and it marked his third time in four years leading the American League in batting average. As we all know, Mauer was something of a unicorn: the third backstop ever to become a batting champ, and the first to do it in the AL. Needless to say, it has been a historical rarity, but the shifting tides of the game make me wonder if we'll ever see it happen again. In 2009, Mauer was one of nine catchers to qualify for the batting title. Same thing in 2008, and 2006, when he won his other two crowns. Compare that to five catchers who qualified this year, and just two (!) in 2021. Around the major leagues, clubs have progressively altered the way they manage catchers, opting in most cases to spread out the workload rather than placing the full burden on one player – a movement the Twins have fully embraced. Sure, there are still some throwbacks out there like Sean Murphy and J.T. Realmuto, but they're few and far between, and none of them are hitting like prime Joe Mauer. The current landscape really puts into perspective how incredible Mauer was. We're less than a decade removed from a stretch where he bore the rigors of catching over 10 years (albeit with some injury issues mixed in) and slashed .323/.405/.469. He made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in seven of those campaigns. It's a stretch of performance that, in my opinion, should (and will) get him into the Hall of Fame. But enough reminiscing about the past. Let's turn the clock forward to present day. The Twins now find themselves with a need at catcher, and it's one they could seek to address in a profound way. The big name on this year's offseason class, as covered in our extensive Offseason Handbook chapter on the subject, is Willson Contreras. One of the better free agent catchers to hit free agency in some time, Contreras received his third All-Star nod in 2022 while slashing .243/.349/.466 for the Cubs. His .815 OPS would've ranked third among all Twins, behind only Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Contreras is a highly-regarded star player and easily the pinnacle of the catching market. He's in his prime and coming off a career year. It'll take a very big contract to land him – I guessed 5/100 as a starting point in the Handbook – and that raises some challenging questions about the logic of spending so much on what is, essentially, a part-time player. He's a perfect example of the diminishing durability benchmark for the modern catcher. Despite avoiding major injuries, and producing at an elite rate when on the field, Contreras has qualified for a batting title only once (sans-2020) since debuting back in 2016. That was aback in 2018, when he was 26 and made 544 plate appearances over 138 games (a typical, if not light, workload for a Mauer campaign). Twenty million dollars is a lot of money in annual salary commitment for a team like the Twins. They've got to be smart in how they use it. Allocating such a big share to a player who has played 120 games per year on average, and would probably be in line for a timeshare of sorts here, if the Twins adhere to their existing philosophy ... it could be tough to stomach. And that's beyond all the other built-in risk with a player like Contreras who might have to move off catcher in the coming years anyway. As the mechanisms of Major League Baseball shift, we'll start seeing financial implications play out. With the expectation for a starting pitcher's workload being more in the 150-170 range as compared to the 180-210 range of previous eras, teams will start scaling back the relative amount they're willing to invest in starters (if they haven't already). We'll very likely see a similar effect in the catching market, and Contreras will be a fascinating example to follow. The Twins are among the few franchises to hand out a true mega-deal to a catcher, having signed Mauer for $184 million in 2010. They did so with the belief that he'd continue, at least for a while, to catch 900-1,000 innings per season. It's hard to realistically expect the same from someone like Contreras, who himself will be in the market for a mega-deal. Circling back to the original question posed in this article, the heart of the matter is not so much asking whether a catcher will win a batting title ... but whether it makes sense to invest heavy resources into players who might never qualify for one. View full article

I know it's Halloween but there's no need to frighten the children

In terms of existential "needs" on the Twins roster, catcher ranks behind only shortstop on the offseason priority list. In determining the plan going forward, Minnesota's decision makers need to ask themselves a series of questions, with the answers pointing to various different sets of options. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports There are several different ways to view the catcher position, and they largely hinge on your opinion of Ryan Jeffers. Has he shown enough to remain entrenched as the 1A fixture behind the plate, or have his injuries and middling performance created the need to find a new catching cornerstone? In our new chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Framing the Catcher Market," we explore these two scenarios and everything in between, unpacking four questions and where they lead: Do you view Ryan Jeffers as your catcher of the future, and a viable primary starter in 2023? If the Twins want to more or less run back the same plan from 2022, while hoping Jeffers can stay healthier and take a step forward, there are a number of low-cost targets available in free agency, including the option to literally run it back with Gary Sánchez or Sandy León. Do you want to sign the top free agent catcher on the market and make him your new cornerstone behind the plate? The top name in this year's catching market, without question, is Willson Contreras, a three-time All-Star who gained notoriety with the Cubs. At age 30, coming off a season where he posted a career-high 128 OPS+, Contreras would satisfy the needs for both a primary catcher and a middle-of-the-order bat. (Plus, he could DH a fair amount and keep Jeffers solidly in the mix.) As I wrote in the Handbook, "If you're looking for a place the Twins could flex their ample spending flexibility if they miss out on the shortstop and pitching markets, this is the obvious answer." He'll be in high demand and certainly has his downsides, which are also explored in the chapter. So maybe you want to set your gaze slightly lower: Do you want to gamble on a free agent who could be your #1 primary catcher, but also could blow up entirely? Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez, and Omar Narváez are examples of former standout – even star-caliber – catchers who are coming off down years. You'd be buying low on any of them and taking on a considerable amount of risk. But they'll also bring real upside while requiring short-term commitments. If none of the free agent options in these three categories are appealing, there's only one option remaining. You want to trade for a new primary catcher. Several intriguing options could be in play, with Sean Murphy of the Athletics being the most exciting. The Twins would need to pony up big-time in order to acquire a controllable catcher, but you can certainly make an argument it's justified given how heavily their organizational talent is distributed at other positions. If you're a Twins Daily Caretaker, you can download the full chapter and explore these questions more deeply. If you're not subscribed yet, you can sign up as a supporter of our community for as little as $6/month and get access to this plus all other Offseason Handbook content as it drops. Which of the four routes laid out above is most appealing to you when it comes to approaching the catcher market? View full article

They do?? ? I thought I was mostly aiming on the high side. Most of these guys are not in a strong position to market themselves, and there are at least 8 better SPs than all of them in free agency.

Any such agreement came off the table when he missed an entire season with Tommy John, IMO. (And earned $3M to not pitch, fwiw.) If it's true that he can be "fantastic in the bullpen" then the Twins should use him in the way that helps them most. I like Kenta but I don't think think he has much of a leg to stand on after being bad in 2021 and throwing zero innings in 2022.

Ideally the Twins will aim toward the top end of starting pitching free agency this offseason. History tells us they won't. Luckily, this year's market features strong depth in terms of mid-rotation starters with upside to be more. Today we'll look at 15 free agent options in that range. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Gary A. Vasquez, Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, we set the bar for where the Twins front office needs to aim in reinforcing the rotation: the Sonny Gray Threshold. In the Offseason Handbook, we highlighted eight free agents who arguably fall above that threshold – No. 1 caliber starters who would slot above Gray. The Twins certainly have the financial flexibility to pursue one of those arms if Carlos Correa isn't re-signed, but still, we have to acknowledge that they've never waded into that deepest end of the SP pool before. Based on their track record, it's much more likely this front office shops at the next tier, which isn't the worst news because there is some quality to be found and maybe even some decent values. These are the most likely free agent targets for the Twins. None would be particularly exciting as a primary addition for the rotation, but they are all potential playoff starters, and failing to acquire someone AT LEAST at this level would be downright unacceptable. 1. José Quintana, LHP Former Team: Cardinals Age: 34 The cutoff for my "Sonny Gray Threshold" was in between Martín Peréz, the last player profiled in my Handbook story, and Quintana, the first player profiled here. Admittedly, it's a very thin line, because these are both previously underwhelming veteran left-handers coming off breakthrough seasons where they pitched like legitimate No. 1 starters, despite unimpressive K-rates. I'm less high on Quintana – who posted a fantastic 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 32 starts for the Pirates and Cardinals – because he's a few years older (turning 34 in January) and threw 30 fewer innings. You'd be buying high on either southpaw, but in both cases, there's no knocking the 2022 performance. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million 2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 30 I'll be fascinated to see how Syndergaard's market takes shape. He's got the big name, the mighty aura, the flashy track record. He also pitched two total innings between 2020 and '21, and in his return to action last year he was ... Thor Lite. The fastball velo was way down, along with the strikeouts. He posted a 3.94 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 134.2 IP between the Angels and Phillies. Even in this lesser form, Syndergaard was still solid, but if you're signing him it's probably based on the belief that his velocity and dominance will return. At this point that's a leap of faith. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $51 million 3. Taijuan Walker, RHP Former Team: Mets Age: 30 There were rumblings that the Twins were close to signing Walker ahead of the 2020 season, banking on a return to form for the former top prospect who missed nearly all of 2018-19. No deal ended up materializing, but their instinct was right: Walker has stayed mostly healthy in three seasons since, posting a 3.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He has a player option but is sure to opt out in search of a multi-year deal coming off a strong season. He's one of the youngest players on this list. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $52 million 4. Kodai Senga, RHP Former Team: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (Japan) Age: 30 One of the biggest pitching stars in Japan is reportedly set to opt out of his contract and pursue a deal in the majors. Senga has been excellent in NPB, where he posted a pristine 1.89 ERA last year with 159 strikeouts and seven home runs allowed in 148 innings. There is obviously uncertainty about how his game will translate to MLB. With a mid-90s fastball accompanied by unremarkable secondary stuff, he's definitely not on the Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish tier, but Senga could be a quality #2 type. A big risk but a potentially intriguing one. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $50 million 5. Sean Manaea, LHP Former Team: Padres Age: 31 He was the apple of many a Twins fan's eye last offseason, when the Athletics were known to be dangling him. Manaea ended up going to the San Diego, and didn't have a very good season: 158 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 29 HR allowed. His stock is down, but there's a reason he was in demand to begin with: Manaea has consistently been a quality performer while at times flashing top-of-rotation upside. Even in his disappointing 2022 he still averaged about a strike out per inning. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $48 million 6. Michael Wacha, RHP Former Team: Red Sox Age: 31 Once a promising young 17-game winner for the Cardinals, Wacha's career was derailed in his late 20s to the point where he had to take a one-year make-good deal with the Red Sox last offseason. He made good indeed, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP, but the underlying metrics weren't that impressive and Wacha's prior recent track record was brutal (5.11 ERA in 2019-21). There's a lot of risk in gambling on him, and I'm not sure how much reward. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million 7. Jameson Taillon, RHP Former Team: Yankees Age: 31 When they acquired Taillon from the Pirates, the Yankees hoped to emulate what Houston did with Gerrit Cole: extract an underperforming former top draft pick from Pittsburgh's rotation and unlock his true potential. That didn't happen. Taillon was much more good than great during two seasons in the Bronx, posting a 4.08 ERA in 322 innings – translating to a 100 ERA+ that rates him as exactly average. That said, he's been pretty durable and his 4.72 K/BB ratio in 2022 is appealing. Contract Estimate: 3 years, $36 million 8. Zach Eflin, RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 28 Advanced metrics have always viewed Eflin more favorably than his core results, which amount to a 4.49 ERA in about 650 career innings. He has very good control but isn't dominant, with middling fastball speeds and strikeout rates that belie his big 6-foot-6 frame. I'd describe him as the very definition of a mid-rotation starter, but a fairly reliable one at that. His biggest selling point perhaps is his age – still only 28 as of next Opening Day. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $36 million 9. Andrew Heaney, LHP Former Team: Dodgers Age: 31 Much like with Tyler Anderson, the Dodgers gambled on Heaney with a one-year deal, believing that the left-hander had much more ability in him than the sub-par numbers showed. Much like with Anderson, that gamble paid off in a big way, as Heaney dominated to the tune of a 3.10 ERA and 13.6 K/9 rate. The only reason he's not alongside Anderson on this list is that he simply didn't have the volume – only 73 innings thrown in 14 appearances (12 starts) due to injuries. His preceding track record is also much uglier than Anderson's. Still, Heaney finally realized his frontline stuff this year and offers tantalizing upside. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $28 million 10. Drew Smyly, LHP Former Team: Cubs Age: 33 The veteran lefty lost his entire 2017-18 seasons to injury, and has since bounced around a whole bunch: from Texas to Philly to San Francisco to Atlanta to Chicago, all within a span of four years. So many teams have seen promise in his undeniably intriguing stuff from the left side but no one's been able to fully unlock his top performance over an extended period. The Cubs came as close as anyone this past season, where he had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 IP, but he posted a career-low K-rate and home runs continued to haunt him (he's allowed 77 in 373.1 IP since 2019). He does have a mutual option with Chicago although those rarely seem to get activated. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million 11. Ross Stripling, RHP Former Team: Blue Jays Age: 33 Stripling is, in many ways, a prototype pitcher for this front office: a hybrid pitcher who's consistently phased between starting and relieving, while remaining mostly successful in both roles: he has a 3.86 career ERA as a starter, 3.51 as a reliever. The right-hander is coming off a season where he won 10 games and posted a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 IP for Toronto, so he'll probably be looked at as more of a starter with swingman qualities. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million 12. Jake Odorizzi, RHP Former Team: Braves Age: 33 Odorizzi once again heads into free agency on a sour note. Following a strong first half in Houston, he was traded to Atlanta, where he posted a 5.24 ERA in 46.1 IP and dealt with arm fatigue, then struggled in one postseason appearance. Despite the flat finish, he'll still probably turn down his $6.5 million player option in search of a somewhat larger payday. But much like after his 2020 season, which was ravaged to the core by injuries, Odo won't be in a position to command a ton. He projects are more of back-of-rotation starter at this point but Twins fans have seen him at his best; maybe it's still in there somewhere. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million 13. Corey Kluber, RHP Former Team: Rays Age: 36 We probably need to divorce ourselves from the idea that the two-time Cy Young winner will ever regain his previous form. But that doesn't mean he can't be, or hasn't been, effective in this reduced state. He posted a 4.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 164 innings for Tampa in 2022. While he no longer has the stuff to blow people away, with a fastball that's dropped to the high 80s, he still gets people to chase his slider. And one strength that HAS returned is his elite control – he led the league in BB/9 this year, as he did in 2017 and 2018. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $12 million 14. Kyle Gibson. RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 35 Another former Twin and former All-Star whose stock is down. Gibson had a career year in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 182 innings, but the past season was more of a struggle: 5.05 ERA, 1.8 fWAR in 167.2 IP. He just turned 35 and it's hard to see much upside left, but Gibson has been durable (29-plus starts in every non-pandemic year since 2017) and steadily solid. He falls well short of the Sonny Gray Threshold but can't be ignored as an option given the familiarity and likelihood of a short-term deal. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $8 million 15. Wade Miley, LHP Former Team: Cubs Age: 36 The well-traveled veteran was limited to just 37 innings in 2022 due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain. After missing most of the season, he came back and pitched pretty well in September, as if to make a statement about his readiness to rebound next year. Miley has consistently pitched well when on the mound, and he'll probably be available for an incentive-laden one-year deal, which is up Minnesota's alley. But his age combined with two scary arm issues this past season pose a lot of risk for a team that's trying to steer toward dependability. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million View full article

The Twins already have rotation depth going into 2023, at least in terms of pure quantity. They don't need more bottom-of-rotation starters like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. What they need to do is acquire someone at or above what I call the 'Sonny Gray Threshold.' It'll be our guiding barometer as we assess the team's rotation strategy this offseason. Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports I am of the opinion that it's a failure if the Twins go into 2023 with Sonny Gray as their standalone No. 1 starter. This might've been the underlying rationale behind adding Tyler Mahle at the deadline, but unfortunately, Mahle should be viewed as no more than a question mark and hopeful contributor for next year. You simply can't plan around a guy who threw 16 innings after being acquired, and finished on the injured list with an unresolved shoulder issue. Kenta Maeda, much like Mahle, is a pitcher who's shown top-of-rotation ability but can't be firmly depended upon for a whole lot. At age 35, with only 173 total innings under his belt over the past three seasons, the Twins may be best off placing him in a long relief or swingman role, as he often filled in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Gray himself was limited to just 120 innings in 2022, with multiple hamstring injuries disrupting a full season even by his modest standards for what one looks like. With all this instability near the top of the rotation, the Twins really need to add a proven, durable, high-caliber starter who would be a credible option to start a postseason game. They need near, or ideally above, the level of Gray. In the newest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, Reinforcing the Rotation, I took a look eight high-end free agents and 10 potential trade targets who arguably land at or above the Sonny Gray Threshold. I also broke down the internal pitching pipeline with a look at which prospects might be able to help, and when. It's all now available to download for Caretakers, who can also access our previously released Handbook installments covering the payroll and the future of shortstop. If you're not a Caretaker already, you can sign up here for as little as $6/month and get plenty of other perks including free entry to the Winter Meltdown (details coming soon!). Of course, there will also be plenty of free content available to everyone on the site this week a we take a collective deep dive into the Twins' starting pitching needs and options. Stay tuned and let's see if we can surpass the Sonny Gray Threshold. View full article

Let's be clear, the Twins didn't really win a bidding war for Correa. They took advantage of very unique circumstances in a unique offseason. It's not like they were throwing out $250M offers like they'd need to do in order to re-sign Correa, or get into the convo for Turner/Bogaerts. Also, there are other ways to spend that extra money if they don't use it on a SS. I think suggesting that all light-hitting, glove-first defenders at SS are the same is misguided. Someone like Nick Ahmed, at his peak, is a huge difference-maker because of what he does in the field. That 670 OPS hasn't prevented him from putting up basically the same career WAR as Jorge Polanco.

It's subjective, and you make a good case for the validity of Iglesias. To me, it comes down to this: Andrus has shown he can be a legitimately valuable player over the past two seasons (5.1 fWAR). Iglesias, less so (2.7 fWAR). I'm not convinced Iglesias is much of a defender at SS anymore. Statcast agrees. You can live with Iglesias as a plug-in but Andrus has actually flashed modest upside of late. That's the difference maker for me.

Iglesias had a .709 OPS and it equated to a 90 OPS+. Tells you all you need to know. Contextually his offense was on par with Gary Sanchez. He interests me not at all. The only FA outside of the big four I find viable is Andrus.

Would be exciting. I can almost guarantee they're not going to win any of those bidding wars so it's necessary to consider other options. Signing one of those free agents is not entirely in their control, even if they are willing to reach the necessary threshold (which they probably aren't).

Fair question. My take: The Twins don't view Urshela as an SS at all. They had ample opportunities to give him even a few sparse looks there this year and he never started a game, even as Nick Gordon got a handful of nods there. Actually, part of the reason I view IKF as a fit is that he negates the need to bring back Urshela for like 50% more money. If/when Lewis or Lee is ready to step in at short, Kiner-Falefa becomes a nice asset as a backup/utility IF. Agreed that his metrics at SS are underwhelming, but he has rated excellent at 3B, better than Gio. IKF also brings some speed to the roster which Urshela most definitely does not.

If the Twins could get one of the top 3 guys on the same total commitment as Correa (100M) they'd do it in a heartbeat. That's not going to happen though. Freeing up the cash for 2023 alone is not really the issue here. We're talking about 6-7+ year contracts for those top 3.

Okay, who do you want? I would bet that Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson all sign with big-market teams for huge contracts, with the first 3 being out of the Twins' realistic spending range and Swanson being too expensive to be a wise investment (I'm not a huge believer in him). I'm not trying to get the "answer I want" I'm trying to get a realistic and specific answer beyond "I wanna spend big money on an awesome two-way shortstop!" It's not that simple.

Which above-average hitting shortstop are you interested in acquiring who is actually a realistic target, assuming they aren't looking for a long-term solution that'll cost $100+ million?

The current Twins front office has consistently been very active on the trade market. If they decide this is their best avenue for addressing the glaring need at shortstop, there are three names that stand out as likely targets. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports As detailed in our "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook (now available for Caretakers to download!), there are four big names on the shortstop free agency market this offseason, and it's likely the Twins won't land any of them. In fact, if the front office believes their shortstop of the future is already in the organization, they might not even seriously pursue any of them. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are all going to get long-term deals worth more than $100 million. The free agent pool drops off severely after those four players, to the point that it might make more sense to trade for a short-term plug in search of a little more impact. Yesterday, Matt Braun highlighted three under-the-radar trade targets. While I could definitely see the Twins getting creative and going after any one of those names, the following trio of shortstops strike me as more straightforward and likely options – each distinctly appealing to the Twins for different, yet similar, reasons. These are the more "on the radar" shortstop trade targets. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, New York Yankees As we all remember (who could forget?!), Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for about a day or so, between the time he was acquired from Texas and then traded to the Yankees. The Twins were adamant at the time they didn't deal for IKF with the intention of immediately flipping him. They liked him. If they liked him then, there's not much reason to think they don't like him now. He had a customary season in New York, rating well defensively while not hitting much. Kiner-Falefa experienced the brunt of Yankee fan vitriol and was benched in key late-season situations. It's safe to say both parties are ready to move on. With one season of arbitration remaining and a mediocre showing in his most recent campaign, Kiner-Falefa will surely cost less to acquire than a year ago, when the Twins gave up two seasons of Mitch Garver. If the Twins are planning to usher Royce Lewis back in as shortstop midway through the season, IKF would make a lot of sense as an interim plug, capable of moving off shortstop and handling other positions like third, where he's got a Gold Glove under his belt. Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks If the Twins want to shoot a bit higher than Kiner-Falefa, who'd be a logical albeit uninspiring fit, they could turn their attention to Ahmed. He's not without his own risk and downside, though. Ahmed is akin to Kiner-Falefa in that he specializes with the glove and doesn't offer much with the bat. His defensive strength, however, has been much stronger. Ahmed won Gold Gloves at shortstop in 2018 and 2019, and was a three-win player both years based entirely on defensive value. He had an especially brutal offensive season in 2021, and then missed almost all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery, so his stock is definitely down. Ahmed is expected to be a full go next spring, with one year and $10.4 million remaining on his contract. By trading for him, you'd be banking on him regaining his elite defensive impact at age 33, coming off major surgery on his throwing shoulder, but it's not a bad bet. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants Next season, Crawford will be 36 and earning $16 million in the last year of his contract. The age, combined with a very unproductive 2022 campaign at the plate (.231/.308/.344, 9 HR in 118 games), detracts from his appeal. However, just one year ago, in 2021, Crawford as an All-Star and MVP contender. He posted 6.3 fWAR, launching 24 home runs with an .895 OPS while winning a Gold Glove. He was, basically, the best version of Carlos Correa. That upside, however faint, makes Crawford interesting, especially when coupled with his floor as an experienced vet with a good glove and expiring contract. I recognize that none of these players are very exciting based on what they did in 2022. But they all have common traits that make them great fits for the Twins -- assuming the team is intent on keeping for the door open for one of their prospects to take over at shortstop. All three are veterans with reliably good gloves, varying levels of legitimate upside, and one-year contract commitments. They're also all in relative buy-low situations, which Minnesota's value-minded front office is sure to favor. Trading for one of these players would enable the Twins to confidently address their 2023 shortstop opening while reserving resources to make bigger splashes in other areas. View full article

It was never a secret, and now it's more or less official: Carlos Correa is going to opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency in search of a career-making new deal. This leaves the Twins once again needing to address a vacancy at shortstop. So where do we go from here? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa confirmed to a Puerto Rican newspaper last week his intent to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent. It comes as no surprise to the Twins' decision makers, who knew back in February they were essentially inking the star shortstop to a one-year deal. Enlisting Correa was an exciting, and ultimately worthwhile, gambit for the front office – even if it wasn't enough to make the difference for a team doomed by injuries. Alas, this gambit amounted to kicking the can down the road when it comes to charting out the franchise's future at shortstop. That open position now looms as a crucial linchpin in this coming offseason, and one we explore deeply in the next chapter of the Offseason Handbook. This three-part series of PDFs will be available exclusively to Twins Daily Caretakers when it drops on Tuesday. Stay dialed into your email inbox for these stories: Courting Carlos Correa (Again): A thorough examination of the Twins as a suitor for Correa in the open market. Analyzing the Free Agent Shortstop Market: The 10 non-Correa options in free agency, ranked and profiled. Organizational Depth Chart: Breaking down the system's depth at shortstop, level by level. Essentially, these pieces will equip you to answer three pivotal questions in determining the path forward at shortstop: Is re-signing Correa realistic (or wise)? If not, who else might they sign to replace him? And, perhaps most importantly, do you believe the long-term answer is already in the system? Sign up as a Caretaker at any tier to get access to these new chapters, as well as John's back-of-the-napkin payroll analysis from last week and all future premium content to come. You can use all of the information in these chapters to build your own roster at TwinsPayroll.com. The offseason ahead is full of weighty, complex decisions. Let's navigate them together, starting with priority number one. View full article

Analytics are just stats. Why wouldn't we use stats to determine who had the best season? I'm sure Seth could sure the breakdown of voting results. This was my ballot, FYI: 1. Correa 2. Duran 3. Buxton 4. Arraez 5. Gray