Nick Nelson

With an upgrade atop the rotation shaping up as a clear need at the trade deadline, the division leaders targeted and acquired a frontline starter. They gave up a hefty prospect package to gain extended control, but now this big trade is in danger of blowing up completely after underwhelming performance gave way to a mysterious shoulder injury. Oh, did you think I was referencing Tyler Mahle? No, I'm talking about Frankie Montas. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Frankie Montas was one of the hottest names on the market at the trade deadline, and was known to be pursued by Minnesota last offseason. The Yankees acquired him alongside reliever Lou Trivino in exchange for four prospects on August 1st. The results have not been as hoped. Montas posted a 6.35 ERA in eight turns, including just one quality start, before undergoing an MRI on his shoulder this week. He landed on the injured list and there's a pretty good chance he won't pitch again for the Yankees in 2022. Barring further clarity around what's affecting him, Montas figures to be a bit of a question mark heading into next season, too. The Twins can obviously relate. They've gone through a similar ordeal with their own prized deadline pickup. Like Montas, Tyler Mahle had some known shoulder issues when he was acquired. Like Montas, those issues have now grown more problematic, even though – in both cases – MRI results revealed no structural damage, before or after the trades. This is what differentiates the Mahle outcome from, say, the Chris Paddack move, where the Twins accepted a rather extreme level of risk in the name of acquiring extended control of a good starter. That was a measured risk on its own, but it shouldn't be grouped with the one they took on Mahle, who (like Montas) was more typical of a deadline gambit. It's the nature of the beast: as a leveraged buyer in a seller's market, under big pressure to improve, you're going to have to take risks – like ponying up big prospect capital for a talented arm with ambiguous health concerns, or buying high on a breakout All-Star reliever who lacks a convincing track record. Those who constantly advocate for these types of assertive showings from the front office now sound rather toothless when criticizing them in hindsight. While we can all see the overall results have been unsatisfactory – albeit hardly disastrous for a reigning last-place team – this front office was audacious in shaking things up. Isn't that what we want? The big deadline moves. Locking down Byron Buxton with a creative extension. Trading their highest-upside pitching prospect for Sonny Gray. Unloading Josh Donaldson's contract. Signing Carlos Correa to a historic deal (albeit at the expense of investment in pitching). And going back a bit further, let's not forget about trading José Berríos to Toronto at the 2021 deadline, thus letting the Blue Jays sign him to a massive extension while flipping him into one of their breakthrough pitching prospects. That one looks pretty good now. Others don't. And it's beyond valid to criticize the front office for these many moves that haven't panned out, especially those like the Paddack trade, which carried huge red flags from the start. (Although, if we're being honest, they were kinda right about Taylor Rogers, just as they were Berríos?) There's a big gap between "merits criticism" and "needs replacement." I'm not close to the latter point with Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, although changes at various levels of the organization are well warranted. In terms of leadership vision, we've experienced the opposite approach – one characterized by risk aversion and playing it safe. I dare say that's what sunk them last year when their biggest additions were Alex Colomé and JA Happ. As the saying goes, scared money don't make money. Sometimes those bold gambles don't turn out as hoped, and you've got to live with the consequences. It happens even to the Yankees. That won't stop them from staying aggressive and shooting their shots in the future. It shouldn't stop the Twins either, albeit at a different scale given their resources. View full article

If the Minnesota Twins are going to bounce back next year, it will take more than savvy offseason moves from the front office. Impact veterans help but, as we've seen with Carlos Correa, they can't do it all. Internal help is crucial. The club was helped greatly this season – and saved perhaps from another all-out disaster – by key rookies making immediate contributions, including Jose Miranda, Jhoan Duran and Joe Ryan. Some positive developments in the minors offer hope that more impact help is soon on the way. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports Yesterday we assessed the damage from the most upsetting negative developments in the Twins system this year, with three of the organization's top six prospects experiencing calamitous setbacks that have sent them spiraling out of the Twins' plans. As a chaser to cleanse all those bad vibes, today we'll highlight some hugely positive developments on the farm, each propelling ascendent prospects more directly into the team's future. Best of all, we couldn't limit this list to just three. These five players have tremendously improved their stocks this year, setting the stage to potentially help the major-league team in the very near future (if they haven't already). Louie Varland backs up a big year. We've already seen the early returns on this breakout prospect star. Varland didn't exactly come out of nowhere – he was named the organization's minor-league pitcher of the year in 2021 – but there was still an air of skepticism around him, a former 15th-round draft pick out of a D-II college. Sure, he was amazing in A-ball last year, but plenty of collegiate draft picks have dominated those low levels only to get a reality check in the high minors. For Varland, that check never came. He translated his excellence to Double-A without missing a beat, earning a late-season promotion to Triple-A that quickly turned into a major-league debut. Stepping out under the lights of Yankee Stadium, Varland excelled and made a big impression. Things didn't quite as well his next time out, in Cleveland on Saturday, but this is a guy whose stated goal for this year was to reach St. Paul. He blew past it, and as a consequence, will find himself squarely in the MLB depth picture heading into next season. Matt Wallner mashes past his contact issues. Wallner is another prospect whose monster campaign has already paved the way for a sooner-than-expected MLB debut. And like Varland, he's a local kid, native to Forest Lake, MN. Unlike Varland, Wallner was not a late-round draft pick who emerged from low expectations to achieve top prospect status. He was a bona fide stud coming out of college, selected 39th overall in 2019. But he had his own set of doubts coming into this season, relating mainly to his contact and discipline issues. Even for someone with as much raw power as Wallner, it's really tough to project big-league success for a bat-first player who strikes out 33% of the time and barely walks – at Single-A as a 23-year-old, no less. Would upper-level pitchers chop him to bits? Turns out, it's been the other way around. Wallner obliterated Double-A pitching, posting a .299/.436/.597 slash line with 21 homers in 74 games. That earned him a trip to the Futures Game and a promotion to Triple-A soon after. Wallner got off to a slow start with the Saints, batting .105 with zero extra-base hits in his first 10 games. Then he flipped a switch. Since the beginning of August he's slashing .289/.414/.564. Walks are up, strikeouts are down, and that has a been an overall trend for him this year as he's shown the ability to actively improve his strike zone control and evolve his game. The huge breakout season, combined with desperation for help at the big-league level, led to Wallner getting called up in Cleveland this past weekend. He homered off Shane Bieber in his first MLB game. Wallner felt like a bit of a longshot at this time last year, but now looks like a guy you can confidently write into the team's plans going forward. The idea of both he and Varland, as hometown boys, turning into fixtures for the Twins over the next five years is pretty fun. Simeon Woods Richardson shows his true colors. A former second-round draft pick of the Mets, Woods Richardson has widely been viewed as one of the more prestigious pitching prospects in the minors, making both Baseball America's and MLB.com's Top 100 lists in 2020 and 2021. The Twins were thrilled to get him alongside Austin Martin in the trade that sent José Berríos to Toronto last summer. Looking at his 2021 season in isolation, fans might have been asking ... why? He had a 5.76 ERA in 11 starts with the Blue Jays' Double-A affiliate, and then put up a 6.75 ERA in a brief eight-inning September stint with Wichita. It was a weird year that saw him get aggressively assigned to Double-A at age 20, then take a bunch of time away from his team for the Olympics, where he didn't even pitch. The 6-foot-3, 210 lb right-hander has fully gotten back on track this year. He didn't allow a run in his first four starts en route to a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings at Wichita before moving up to St. Paul in mid-August. There he has continued to excel with a 2.55 ERA in 24 ⅔ frames. Between both levels, Woods Richardson has averaged well over a strikeout per inning, cut down significantly on the walks, and allowed only six home runs in 21 outings. Opponents have batted .206 against him. He's about three years younger than the average player at Triple-A. This reaffirming turnaround from Woods Richardson has been huge for two reasons, both tying to yesterday's article. First, it keeps the Berríos trade looking like a winner even with Martin falling off, and second, it keeps another high-caliber and near-ready pitching prospect in the wings even with Balazovic getting derailed. Emmanuel Rodriguez blossoms into prospect stardom. Unlike the others highlighted in this article, Rodriguez is probably not in line to make an MLB debut in the especially near future. He's a teenager who hasn't appeared above Low-A and his timeline was further delayed by a season-ending knee injury suffered in June. In spite of all that, his performance prior to that injury was so magnificent, and so incredibly encouraging, that he has to be included in this piece. Rodriguez ranked 15th on our preseason top prospects list, characterized as an intriguing yet distant international talent coming off an impressive showing in rookie ball. His follow-up at Single-A left no doubt as to the outfielder's sky-high potential: in 47 games before going down, he slashed .272/.493/.552 with nine homers, 11 steals, and 57 (!) walks. Yes, you read that right – nearly a .500 OBP and more walks than games played from a 19-year-old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Realistically, even if he comes back with gusto next year, Rodriguez is probably looking at a 2024 debut at the earliest, but his spectacular first half puts him in the "blue chip prospect" conversation and that's a hugely positive development for this system. Brooks Lee arrives and thrives. I honestly believe this will go down as THE biggest boost to the farm system over a span of many years: Lee, widely viewed as one of the premier talents in this year's MLB draft, somehow sliding to the Twins at No. 8 overall, where they were more than happy to take him. They may have landed a new franchise player. Quickly signed to a $5.7 million bonus, Lee has handled every assignment so far with aplomb. He went to rookie ball briefly where he batted .353 to earn a promotion to Single-A. Five weeks at Cedar Rapids was enough to convince the Twins he was ready for the next level, so over the weekend, Lee was called up to Wichita, reaching Double-A exactly two months after he was drafted. Touted for his "otherworldly bat-to-ball skills," Lee was one of the top hitters in college, an exceedingly advanced talent, and the Twins could barely contain their excitement when he fell into their laps. "It’s hard to say who made who fall to our pick," said scouting director Sean Johnson, "but regardless of who caused it, [for] the domino to trickle, we’re ecstatic." Their actions have backed up their words. Advanced talent or not, pushing a player to Double-A two months after drafting him makes an aggressive statement. Presumably billed to open back at Wichita in 2023, Lee will be in position to make a case for a big-league promotion next summer. It's almost as if the Twins are planning around that possibility. View full article

If the Minnesota Twins are going to bounce back next year, it will take more than savvy offseason moves from the front office. Impact veterans help but, as we've seen with Carlos Correa, they can't do it all. The Twins were partly derailed this year by a lack of expected contributions from key players in the system, including the following three premier talents. Unfortunately, their setback seasons will cast a shadow forward onto 2023. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Austin Martin) Coming into the 2022 season, Twins Daily ranked Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino as the first, fourth, and sixth best prospects in the organization, respectively. Not only were they high-caliber talents with polish and big upside, but they were all more or less on the precipice of major-league readiness. In each case, things hardly could've gone worse. Whether performance, injury, or a combination, each of these critical assets saw his stock nosedive over the past summer, and it adds another layer of complexity for a front office trying to build its way back to contention. With that said, hope isn't lost for any of these three. Let's take a look at each of their campaigns so far, as things come close to wrapping up here in September. Austin Martin and the power that never came. The prize of last year's José Berríos trade at the deadline, Martin was billed as a near-ready prospect right out of the gates. It was warranted, after he led all of Double-A in on-base percentage during his first pro season. Despite his resounding success, Minnesota sent Martin back to the same level this year, no doubt hoping he'd shore up his biggest weakness from 2022 – an absence of power to complement the excellent OBP – and earn a quick call-up to Triple-A or even the majors. That didn't happen. Martin's power trended the wrong direction this year. After slugging .382 with a .127 ISO and five home runs in 418 PAs between New Hampshire and Wichita, this year he's slugging .317 with an .074 ISO and two home runs in 406 PAs at Wichita. Martin has kept his on-base skills steady, with a .367 OBP despite the crummy .241 average, but his lack of ability to drive the ball with any authority almost renders it moot. Posting a .685 OPS as a 23-year-old in your second turn at Double-A, with no apparent underlying injury, is nothing short of disastrous. Given all the injuries the Twins have faced this season, it's likely Martin would've gotten a chance at some point if he'd even modestly improved his production from a year ago. His drop-off eliminated that possibility and will leave him as something of an afterthought heading into 2023. Martin's going to tank on national prospect lists, where he ranked around #50 by consensus coming into the season. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Martin would hardly be the first player to develop significant power rapidly in his mid-20s. In fact, two "shortstop" prospects who came before him in the Twins system serve as optimistic precedents: Brain Dozier totaled 14 home runs in 317 games through his first three minor-league seasons. Five years later he would set an American League record by launching 42 as a second baseman in 2016. Jorge Polanco hit 35 total home runs total in 598 minor-league games, and could barely muster an XBH in his early days. He hit 33 home runs for the Twins last year. Jordan Balazovic's puzzling struggles in St. Paul. We had Balazovic ranked as the #1 pitcher in the system coming into this year, following a strong campaign at Double-A where he posted a 3.62 ERA and 9.5 K/9 rate as a 22-year-old. Relative to other arms in the system, Balazovic had a more consistent track record and more established workload base, which is why it seemed feasible to envision him playing a significant role in the Twins rotation this year. His abominable performance at Triple-A has done away with that notion entirely. Balazovic started a month late with the Saints due to a knee strain. While he ostensibly put that behind him, staying healthy enough to take the mound each sixth day, he has never seemed right at any point. The right-hander's performance with St. Paul has been beyond awful. In 62 ⅔ innings across 20 appearances, he's 0-6 with a 7.47 ERA. Opponents have slashed .342/.412/.625 against him, as both his walk and home run rates have spiraled out of control. Balazovic has made 19 starts for the Saints and completed five innings ONCE. In late June, Balazovic told Dean Spiros of the Pioneer Press his struggles were "like a puzzle; every day it’s something new." "I’ve never pitched like this,” Balazovic said. “Last year (at Double-A Wichita) my numbers started to get worse in the second half because I was working on stuff. That’s kind of carried over to this season a little bit, but not to where it should be affecting me this bad.” The big 6-foot-5 righty boiled his issues down to consistency and execution, but expressed hope he was getting closer to solving the puzzle. "I’m still hoping for that day," he said, "and I’m hoping that day is tomorrow." It wasn't. The following day he needed 60 pitches to get through 2 ⅔ innings against the Iowa Cubs, allowing five hits (two homers) and two walks. His next time out he coughed up five earned runs in three innings against Omaha. These have been typical results for Balazovic this year, and as a result he's slid down a pitching pipeline hierarchy that's already been depleted by the Chase Petty trade and the development we'll look at next. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Balazovic didn't quite follow through on his "hoping that day is tomorrow" goal, but he might not have been far off? While he bombed in his next two starts, he's been on a bit of a roll ever since, posting a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-11 K/BB ratio with just three homers allowed over 25 innings in his past six starts. Sometimes guys need to experience their worst to unlock their best. Balazovic has plenty of talent to rebound and get back on track. Matt Canterino and the elbow that finally gave way. Canterino's elbow is the only thing that's stood in his way. Drafted 54th overall in 2019 after blowing people away at Rice University for three years, the hard-throwing righty immediately started doing the same to professional hitters. In a 25-inning debut between rookie ball and Low-A, he posted a 1.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only eight hits allowed. Then, the pandemic happened and wiped out the 2020 season. In 2021, he was limited to 23 total innings by a forearm strain (he posted a 0.78 ERA when he was able to pitch). This year, his elbow soreness re-emerged and while the Twins continually tried to navigate around it, treating surgery as a last resort, they eventually ran out of options. "It felt like we didn't have anymore stones to turn over," said assistant GM Jeremy Zoll. Unfortunately, the efforts to avoid surgery only delayed it, and now Canterino's prospective impact has also been pushed well down the line. Since he didn't undergo Tommy John until last month, Canterino will likely miss all of next year rehabbing, meaning that by the time he's ready to fully return to the mound, he'll be a 26-year-old with fewer than 100 innings as a pro. It's really difficult to come back from that. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Difficult, but not impossible. The biggest cost of all this lost time would theoretically be missed development for a guy who's barely been able to get in-game reps since being drafted three years ago. For Canterino, I'm not sure it matters as much. He's basically always looked like a guy ready for the majors when he's pitched, with raw stuff that speaks for itself. So long as that stuff remains mostly intact after the surgery, he'll have a chance to get back up to speed quickly and make his long-awaited impact on the bullpen, even if it's not until 2024. Feeling bummed out? I hear you! Make sure to check back tomorrow when I break down the most uplifting developments on the farm for the Twins this year ... Good news: I couldn't manage to limit that list to just three. View full article

Coming into last week, the Minnesota Twins still had a glimmer of remaining hope to turn things around and mount a run in the AL Central. They kept the spark alive with a sweep of the Royals at home. But by losing the first three games in Cleveland over the weekend, blatantly overmatched in their short-handed state, the Twins snuffed out any long-shot scenarios and sealed their fate. The division they led for so much of the season has slipped away. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/12 through Sun, 9/18 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 73-73) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +18) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 140 | MIN 6, KC 3: Twins Lose No-No in Ninth, Win Easily Game 141 | MIN 4, KC 0: Gray Leads Shutout with Seven Scoreless Game 142 | MIN 3, KC 2: Bullpen Locks Down Slim Lead for Sweep Game 143 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Twins Can't Hold Onto 3-Run Lead Game 144 | CLE 5, MIN 1: Wallner Homers in Debut, Twins Lose Game 145 | CLE 6, MIN 5: 15-Inning Marathon Yields Same Result Game 146 | MIN 3, CLE 0: Twins Salvage Win Behind Ryan's Brilliance NEWS & NOTES As this lost season winds down, the Twins continue to fittingly be besieged by a never-ending onslaught of injuries. Max Kepler became the latest to join the infirmary pack this past week, with his wrist issue forcing him onto an injured list that already includes fellow planned lineup staples Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. Polanco, who's been sidelined for weeks by a knee injury, tried to give it a go in a rehab start at St. Paul on Friday night but couldn't make it all the way through, exiting after five innings. He's probably done for the season. Jeffers and Larnach had more encouraging starts to their rehab assignments, and both have a chance to make it back for the final slate of games, for whatever that's worth. As a silver lining to Kepler going down, the IL move did create an opportunity for Matt Wallner, who homered in his major-league debut on Saturday. In this total wreck of a season, it's nice at least to see local boys like Wallner and Louie Varland get these chances – well earned with monster years in the minors. Another young player set to get his first chance: Ronny Henriquez, who was promoted on Sunday despite posting a 5.66 ERA at St. Paul. Not quite as well earned, but they just need bodies on the staff at this point, basically. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins have this going for them: they can still flat-out dominate the Royals. They ran up their winning streak against Kansas City to seven with another sweep at home, suppressing any hint of offensive threat from the woeful Royals lineup. On Monday, Joe Ryan pitched seven innings of no-hit ball before being lifted at 106 pitches. Reliever Jovani Moran nearly completed the feat, but the Royals were finally able to get on the board in the ninth. Sonny Gray looked somehow even more dominant the following night, tossing seven shutout innings of his own. Thursday saw the bullpen step up with a huge string of clutch performances, as five different relievers contributed one shutout inning apiece to maintain a slim one-run lead. Relievers weren't able to hold up quite as well on Friday, following an excellent return to action from Bailey Ober (5 IP, 0 R), but we'll get to that later. After flirting with a no-no in his first start of the week, Ryan turned in one of the finest performances of his career in the second, hurling 7 ⅔ shutout innings against Cleveland. He allowed just three hits and two walks in the highly efficient outing, lowering his ERA to 3.61 in the process. While Ryan has shown his warts this year (namely, a problematic proneness to home runs), he's undoubtedly been one of the team's most successful starters, and is on his way to finishing strong. LOWLIGHTS Plenty of frustration has been aired far and wide about the Twins and their management of the pitching staff. Personally, I don't have a problem with the general philosophy, given their personnel. But it's the complete rigidity of Minnesota's strict adherence to the playbook that gets to me. There's no room for reacting to circumstances, or pushing the boundaries when it's absolutely necessary. Take Friday night for example. The Twins had every reason to set aside their cautionary nature and push Ober a bit in his return to action. He looked great. He was at only 70 pitches through five innings. Most importantly, the bullpen had been run ragged in protecting a tight lead for five innings the previous day, and a double-header was on deck the next. Didn't matter. Ober came out after five innings, as is custom. Rocco Baldelli ran through arguably his four best relievers, all pitching on back-to-backs, and lost anyway. It left essentially no relief ammo for the rest of the weekend, culminating with Dereck Rodriguez pitching four frames in extra innings as the team's season hung by a thread and gave way. Alas, while it's easy to get caught up in the early hooks and shortcomings on the mound, there's no doubt where the blame primarily lies for this team's downfall: an offense woefully unequipped to compete. This team was always built around the strength of its lineup, which has turned into a debilitating weakness here in the late stages of the season. Since the start of August the bullpen has largely been stabilized and the pitching has been fine overall (6th among AL teams in pitching WAR, 8th in ERA). Meanwhile, the offense has fizzled out during this span, ranking 11th in wOBA and 10th in runs scored. The last time the Twins notched double-digit runs in a contest was August 30th against Boston; since then they have averaged 3.4 runs per game, scoring more than four times in just four of 18. With production like that, a 6-12 record is about what you expect. No amount of savvy pitching management or bullpen string-pulling can overcome such a dearth of run scoring. Saturday night epitomized the team's inability to muster anything with the bats. In a grinding 15-inning affair, the Twins could not will themselves to victory despite receiving opportunity after opportunity. They managed only seven hits in 15 innings and went 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position before finally succumbing to their eighth consecutive loss against Cleveland. Astonishing ineptitude. Then again, it's pretty easy to see how we've gotten to this point. You look at their lineup on any given day and it's now filled with minor-leaguers, third-stringers, retreads. Jake Cave batting fifth. Jermaine Palacios drawing daily starts. Billy Hamilton receiving major league at-bats, in an ostensible pennant race. Even (especially?) with all the attrition, it'd be nice to see anyone stepping up other Carlos Correa, whose September surge continued with another excellent week (10-for-28, two homers, two doubles). The most conspicuous under-performer in the lineup at this point might be Luis Arraez, himself battling through a hamstring issue. He went 3-for-14 against Cleveland and is slashing .284/.316/.397 since appearing in the All-Star Game in July. Since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.4 fWAR (tying him with Cave) and he has the worst Win Probability of all position players other than Kyle Garlick, Kepler, and Palacios. Given that I ranked Arraez a month ago as the single most important player to the team's chances in the stretch run, his drop-off – while several others near the top of that list have gone down with injuries – tells the story of this team's downfall in a nutshell. TRENDING STORYLINE Following their flop in Cleveland, the Twins find themselves with about a 1% chance of making the postseason – and that's based merely on historical odds, not accounting for the fact that almost their entire team is injured while their rivals (especially the Guardians) are enjoying much better health. It's over. So what now? What are the focuses for these final three weeks? Aside from playing out the string, the Twins' motivation has been reduced to: Trying to finish with a record above .500. Play spoiler against the White Sox, who now trail Cleveland by 3 ½ games. Have a few injured players get back on the field and finish the season on relatively positive notes. Get a look at some young players to set them up for bigger impacts in 2023. Personally, only the latter two are all that meaningful to me. And in the case of injured players, I think they're probably better off just shutting down the likes of Buxton, Polanco, and Larnach with hopes of getting them as healthy as possible for next spring. With that said, I hope we'll get to see Wallner, Varland, Henriquez, and maybe even Simeon Woods Richardson take the spotlight here in this final stretch. For me, it'll be the only real draw. LOOKING AHEAD Good news for the Twins in their quest to finish above .500, I guess: they've got three more games ahead against Kansas City, who they've defeated in 12 of 16 matchups. Then they'll host the Angels, with a Shohei Ohtani start on the slate for Friday night to kick off the final homestand of the season. MONDAY, 9/19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Cal Quantrill TUESDAY, 9/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Zack Greinke WEDNESDAY, 9/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – TBD v. LHP Daniel Lynch THURSDAY, 9/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Josh Winder v. RHP Jonathan Heasley FRIDAY, 9/23: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Shohei Ohtani v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, 9/24: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Reid Detmers v. RHP Sonny Gray SUNDAY, 9/25: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Jose Suarez v. RHP Dylan Bundy View full article

To be clear, I meant "devastating" as a combination of how impactful and unforeseeable they were. Losing Paddack or Buxton or Mahle certainly cost the team more in terms of projected WAR, but they were injuries we could have reasonably seen coming. For Kirilloff's season-ending wrist surgery a year ago to basically do nothing, due apparently to some rare biological anomaly? For Buxton to suffer a freak knee injury in a wall collision? These are calamitous events to first-round picks who became top prospects and (rightfully) primary building blocks for the franchise's future. Lewis is a born leader and amazing talent. The only reason you're calling him a bust is because he missed last year with another freak injury and the previous year due to a global pandemic. Which makes this latest setback all the more devastating.

But to suggest his bad moves are responsible for where the team is at, would be to suggest that they're dramatically underperforming their talent level. And my whole premise with this post is that they are not. They are playing about up to what anyone should reasonably expect given the sheer number of injuries that have ravaged their roster. He didn't trade Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagan. He didn't set up the rotation with a bunch of SPs incapable of going 6+ IP, he's just working with what he's got. I'm not saying he's been perfect by any means but I just don't see him as high on the list of problems. The front office is far more culpable for what they provided him (including the pitching plan he's been executing on) but I still don't see this as the time to fire the top dogs. Shake some things up? Sure.

Pretty sure that would show up on a scan, Dr. Jimbo

What exactly did you expect coming off a year where they finished last place in said division? Seems like you're not being very realistic or practical. They should be fired for not building a World Series champion in these circumstances? We can all recognize that 2021 was a mess and was largely on their shoulders. That doesn't mean we can't extend some grace as they try to work back on track, which they mostly did this year outside of the catastrophic injuries.

As I watched the team play over the past week, it was the only thing going through my head. You can't expect to beat decent teams with Max Kepler hitting 4th out of sheer necessity and 3rd-string options making up half your lineup. Or with Ryan and Bundy as essentially your only healthy starters. The slide was basically inevitable. Maybe you could argue they could've scraped together more wins early on and been in a better position right now but even if they managed to win the garbo division they'd stand zero chance in the playoffs with this decimated roster. The injuries have given them no chance to realize their (considerable) potential.

I think then problem with this analysis is that it doesn't account for good management decisions and smart calls that led to victories. It's very one-sided hindsight analysis. Everyone wants to talk about how going to Pagan against Cleveland lost them games. No one wants to talk about how many games the Twins won because Rocco removed a starter before he imploded, or pulled the right bullpen strings. No one wants to talk about how many games they've won because of Jhoan Duran, one of the best rookie relievers in franchise history that this FO targeted, acquired, developed, and unleashed. There were a lot of things done right to generate meaningful improvement this year. With truly incompetent oversight it could've been a lot worse. IMO.

It was explicitly stated that nothing was expected from Maeda or Dobnak this year and that's why they were throw-ins at the bottom of the list. Why use them as your examples?

1) Typically when a guy undergoes serious season-ending surgery to address a long-standing issue, it resolves it, rather than doing nothing and requiring a more invasive surgery a year later. You're telling me they should have seen this coming? How do you plan around this turn of events with the best young hitter in your organization? You can't just go find another Alex Kirilloff to replace him. 2) Maybe some people considered Lewis a "bust" or "not expected to have much impact." Others knew better and weren't shy about saying so. He's a franchise player. I'm not sure how you could've watched what he did in Triple-A and briefly in the majors this year and not recognize the massive difference-making role he would've played.

You must have missed this part of the post, which was in the second paragraph, so I'll type it out in all caps again for ya: "THIS DOESN'T ABSOLVE THE COACHING STAFF OR FRONT OFFICE OF ANY CULPABILITY." There will be plenty of time for you to rant about everything that went wrong and how you saw it all coming. This post is intended to center on the injuries, which are undeniably a massive part of this being a sub-.500 team for the last 4 months. I would say the most significant part, you might disagree. But undeniably a massive part. The front office built a team capable of winning the division, coming off a last-place finish. It was on its way. Even with all the bad decisions and missteps you cited, is there really any doubt they'd still be in front of Cleveland if even half of the players currently on the injured list were available? I personally don't think so.

Well it's a fact, whether you want to buy it or not. Compared to almost every other team in baseball the Twins have lost more players/days to the injured list and also more projected WAR. They have factually been decimated by injuries. I don't know how you can look at the side-by-side comparison of their IL compared to Cleveland and say the Twins haven't suffered more from injuries, it defies logic.

As we pick up the pieces on this 2022 Twins season, which looked so promising for so long, there will be plenty of hindsight analysis, parsing of blame. But it's all overshadowed by the ugly elephant in the room: a catastrophic, unrelenting onslaught of injuries. The reality is that, while this doesn't absolve the coaching staff or front office of any culpability, there was no preparing for this. No team could have survived the almost incomprehensible level of soul-crushing attrition the Twins faced this year. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports The purpose of this article is try and lay out, in no uncertain terms, the insurmountable magnitude of injuries and medical odysseys to which this year's Twins roster has been subjected. There are worthwhile conversations to be had about the way this team is managing players physically, evaluating new acquisitions, and handling rehab plans. But let's take a step back. When you acknowledge that, to a large degree, injury rates and recoveries are driven by luck and uncontrollable forces, I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season. There's no planning for, or adapting, to the way injuries have impacted this roster. There's no managing a bunch of backups and fourth-string options to sustained contention. I recognize this is very unsatisfying for those who demand accountability and want to see heads roll in the wake of such a disappointing turn of events. But when you remove emotion and try to see the situation objectively, I'm not sure how much more you could expect from the execs and decision makers dealt an unwinnable hand. Could they have done certain things better? Of course. Was it going to turn the unstoppable tide that has plunged this ship asunder? No. This side-by-side comparison of the injured lists for Cleveland and Minnesota, here in the heart of the stretch run, kind of says it all. Sixteen Twins players on IL, including several vital cornerstones, compared to three Guardians. How do you realistically overcome that? Let's review all these injuries that have torpedoed a promising season, and the context behind them. I've tried to order them from most devastating to least. Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. When people talk about the 2022 season and what's gone wrong, I feel like this calamity gets glossed over way too much. To me, it is the '1A' headline for all the team's unmet potential. This horrible twist of fate is what I would categorize as unthinkably disastrous. Lewis and Kirilloff are two of the most important assets for this franchise. (I ranked them #3 and #4 during the offseason, behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco – also both currently on IL.) They are at the ages and junctures of development where you'd expect them to start making a real impact the major-league level, and both showed that ability in brief flashes this year. However, both of their seasons were ended in premature fashion. And in BOTH cases, major surgery was required to address the SAME injury that knocked them out for the previous season. (Did I mention this is essentially the third straight lost season for both?) Kirilloff's wrist surgery from last year didn't take, so now he's undergone a more invasive, last-ditch operation to try and alleviate the debilitating issue. Lewis, during his first game back in what appeared to be a permanent call-up, tore the very same ACL he had reconstructive surgery on last year. You can't make this stuff up. And what's most crushing about it all is that both of these absolutely critical players will inevitably be shrouded in doubt going forward. Can Lewis rebound from a second straight surgery on the same knee, especially when his game is founded on agility and foot speed? Will this somewhat experimental surgery for Kirilloff correct a problem that's been plaguing him for years now, sapping his most elite skill? Realistically, it's hard to feel much assurance on either front, and for that reason it's hard to feel optimistic about the Twins' immediate future. It really can't be overstated how disruptive these unforeseeable developments are for a front office trying to build a championship. Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack. We all understand that Mahle and Paddack came with known injury risk to varying degrees. At the same time, so do a lot of trades. You've got to believe a club carefully reviews medicals and gains a level of comfort before pulling the trigger on significant deals like these ones. Yeah, it's easy to scream "incompetence" in hindsight. Too easy. There are a lot of top-of-field experts involved in these decisions. Maybe, taking each player on his own, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Mahle or Paddack succumbed to (likely) season-ending arm injuries. But for both to do so? And not only that, but for it happen SO quickly in both cases? Paddack made it to his fifth start before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring elbow surgery. Mahle lasted only three before his velocity nosedived and a mysterious shoulder injury threatened to end his campaign. A combination of worst-case injury scenarios. Of course. And it really hurts, because the talent evaluation in both cases was sound. I genuinely believe that if healthy these would be the Twins' two best starters. Alas, much like Lewis and Kirilloff, their uncertain futures complicate the front office's planning going forward. Paddack will be coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. Who knows what's going on with Mahle but it seems impossible we'll go into the offseason feeling confident about his shoulder, with one year of team control left. Byron Buxton. Look, we know injuries for Buxton have to be expected and accounted for. They're baked into his legacy, and his new contract. Still, this year the gravity of his durability issues came into sharper focus than ever, primarily because it constitutes a "healthy" season for Buxton. He's already made the second-most plate appearances of his career. He avoided the injured list until August. He still might get to 100 games! And yet, that old injury phantom has conspicuously followed Buxton all year, ever since he came up slamming his hand into the dirt at Fenway one week in. Despite his mightiest efforts, he couldn't outrun his eternal tormentor, and now this season is wrapping up like so many before it: Buxton on the sidelines, watching his team fall short. I guess the point of this blurb is not so much about the micro misfortune of injuries sabotaging another year for Buxton, but more an observation about his appropriateness as face of the franchise: The Twins to lost their way into drafting one of the most talented, electric, special players in modern baseball history who also happens to be the (?) single-most injury prone at that level. Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. I group these two together because while neither injury was totally unforeseeable – catchers get hurt a lot by nature, and Larnach was also sidelined for much of last year – they definitely qualify as bad luck, and both absences led to huge drop-offs in terms of backup plans. Jeffers was having a reasonably solid season before suffering a thumb fracture in mid-July, which may cost him his entire second half. Larnach developed a sports hernia requiring surgery in mid-June, and still hasn't made it back yet. In both cases, the path to returning has arduously dragged well beyond original estimates, and continues to do so – another unfortunate commonality. With Jeffers sidelined, the Twins were left at catcher with the husk of Gary Sánchez and trade acquisition Sandy León, who'd been toiling in the minors for Cleveland. It's been ugly, much like the outfield in the absence of Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton. Bailey Ober and Josh Winder. Winder is no longer on the injured list, but I view him much as the same as Ober: a homegrown talent, 25 years old and coming off a great season, clearly a core part of the Twins pitching plans. Granted, they both had their own warning labels coming into this season, but no clear red flags. As it turns out, both will end up maxing out around 50 innings pitched in the majors – big setback seasons for developing pitchers who will now be challenged to rebuild their workloads once again. In each case, the injury seems not well understood. Ober went down with a groin injury first framed as minor that never seemed to heal. Winder's had recurring bouts with an impinged, but structurally sound, shoulder dating back to last year. On their own, these are losses you could withstand, which is why they're relatively low on this list. But combined with all of the above? Getting almost nothing from Ober, or Winder, or Paddack, or their marquee deadline acquisition Mahle? How do you cobble together a decent rotation through all of that? The only Twins starting pitchers that have truly managed to stay healthy are the guys they signed cheaply to fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Jorgé Alcala and Matt Canterino. These two are lumped as high-upside relievers who could have had transformative impacts on the Twins bullpen, but instead fell victim to essentially worst-case scenarios with their elbows. Alcala missed all of this season; Canterino never made it to the majors and will likely miss all of the next one. Maybe these blows would've been easier to sustain if some of the relief contingency plans held up. However... Danny Coulombe, Cody Stashak, and Jhon Romero. None of these three were projected to be pivotal late-inning weapons, but they were all viewed as important parts of the depth mix. Coulombe and Romero were on the Opening Day roster, and Stashak a late cut. All suffered season-ending injuries early on. Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak. I have these two at the bottom because, unlike everyone above, no one realistically expected much out of them this year. But it would have been nice to get something, *anything* from either. Both have been derailed so much for both that it's easy to forget that, coming out of the 2020 season, we were envisioning each as key long-term pieces for the pitching staff. You can look back now and say, "Well the front office shouldn't have been planning around these guys." Or they shouldn't have traded for Paddack or Mahle and the associated risk. Or they shouldn't have committed to Buxton as a centerpiece, or they should have better medical personnel and training philosophies, and so on. There may be truth to these things. But you bet on players you like, and you accept a certain amount of risk. Otherwise, you end up where the previous front office was for so long, treading water in a pointless middle ground. At the end of the day, injuries happen. They're never as predictable or controllable or correctable as people want to believe. Sadly, this scourge has been especially prevalent for the Twins and, more sadly, a lot of these health woes are going to carry forward in terms of their implications. I firmly believe the front office built a team capable of winning the division this year, and Rocco Baldelli was the guy to lead that group. For a while, it was all coming together as planned. Unfortunately, the current team barely resembles what was built. View full article

I said he looked "solid" and "decent" -- hardly glowing praise lol. But I'll take a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in 4 IP after he put up 9 K and 10 BB in 23 IP over his previous 5 Twins appearances. Step in the right direction.

Almost all the talent is on the injured list.

Undermanned and clearly unequipped for the season-defining challenge ahead of them last week, the Minnesota Twins shrunk in the moment, watching their postseason hopes wilt nearly into nothingness. There will be plenty of time ahead for broader postmortem analysis of a team fading into irrelevance just in time for fans to turn their attention to football. For the purposes of this column, we'll stay centered on the past seven days and what to take away. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/5 through Sun, 9/11 *** Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 69-70) Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: +13) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 133 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Homers from Marwin, Judge Sink Twins Game 134 | NYY 5, MIN 4: Offense Stymied by Yankees Bullpen Game 135 | NYY 7, MIN 1: Nothing Left in the Tank for the Nightcap Game 136 | MIN 4, NYY 3: Twins Finally Scrape Out a Win in NYC Game 137 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Late Rally Can't Overcome Bad Bundy Game 138 | CLE 6, MIN 4: Another Early Hole Proves Too Deep Game 139 | CLE 4, MIN 1: Overmatched Twins Go Quietly in Sweep NEWS & NOTES A week ago the Twins found themselves precariously perched atop the division. "While they're still tied for first out of sheer circumstance" I wrote in the lede, "this team is not in a good place." Boy, that was putting it mildly. Seven long days later, the Twins are now below .500 and buried in third place. Their chances of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight, have sunk to 8 percent. Sigh. The past week saw a lot of roster movement on the pitching staff, with the usual drumbeat of churn and burn remaining steady here as the end draws near. A quick rundown: Cole Sands was activated from his injured list stint on Thursday, supplanting Austin Davis from the roster. In fact, Davis was designated for assignment, one day after giving up three runs on four walks in one inning against the Yankees. Another brilliant waiver pickup by this front office. Speaking of waiver pickups, right-hander Jake Jewell – claimed from Cleveland in mid-August – was outrighted from the 40-man roster. He never got a chance with the Twins. STILL speaking of waiver pickups, Jharel Cotton will likely get another chance with the Twins, having been re-added to the 40-man and active rosters. Minnesota needed the additional pitching depth with Chris Archer landing on the IL due to pectoral tightness that forced him out of Saturday's game. In slightly positive news, the Twins did get Josh Winder back following his time spent on the IL, rehabbing, and then at Triple-A. He gave up a couple of solo homers but mostly looked solid in his return to action. Sands was optioned to make room for Winder. HIGHLIGHTS Louie Varland, take a bow. The reigning Twins minor league pitcher of the year was called upon for his big-league debut in the toughest of circumstances on Wednesday: at Yankee Stadium, against an eternal franchise tormentor, in the midst of a tight pennant race. Despite the immense pressure, Varland came through in flying colors, allowing just one run through five innings before being pulled midway through the sixth. The runner he left behind scored on a home run off Griffin Jax, so Varland finished with this nevertheless brilliant line: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. He returned to the minors later that day, having been called up as a 29th man for the doubleheader, but we'll presumably see the right-hander again soon. Varland's arrival will go down as a signature moment in this season, but likely one that came too little and too late from a team contention perspective. The same can be said about Carlos Correa emerging at last with the game-changing clutch hits we've all been waiting for. The shortstop was instrumental in securing a single victory at Yankee Stadium, with his two-out, two-run homer in the eighth inning on Thursday proving to make the difference in a 4-3 win. The following night, Correa went 4-for-5 with four RBIs in trying (futilely) to will the team past Cleveland. Sadly, because Correa's teammates have done so little to support the cause, his September heroics will likely end up doing more to stoke his impending free agent market than thrust the Twins back into contention. LOWLIGHTS If the previous weekend's 13-0 dismantling in Chicago was the lowlight of the entire season – and I'd argue it was – Tuesday's tragic mess in New York has to be a close runner-up. Despite getting a brilliant start from Varland in his debut, and taking a 3-0 early lead, and throwing all of their best relievers, and having endless opportunities to break the game open ... the Twins fell in 12 innings. Their absolute lack of fortitude was as glaring as it has been all year. It really felt like the Yankees didn't even care much to win the game, trotting out a backup-filled lineup and lower-caliber arms, while the Twins were furiously throwing everything they had – their six best relievers, pinch-runners, pinch-hitters – and still they couldn't find a way to squeak it out. Max Kepler, who struck out looking as a pinch-hitter with two outs and two on in the eighth that night, has been completely ineffective for several months, and it snowballed last week as he battled through a hip injury that ultimately shut him down on Sunday. Kepler struck out in two of his three pinch-hit appearances and popped out behind the plate in another. On Saturday he hit cleanup and went 0-for-5. With their season rapidly slipping away and so many key fixtures sidelined, the Twins have been desperate for Kepler to step up – left with no choice but to write him into the middle of their decimated lineup against right-handed pitchers. Kepler has done the opposite of answering the call, with the worst WPA on the team since August 1st. It's not lost on me that he's been playing through things physically, but those excuses feel empty for a player whose unwavering, deeply flawed approach keeps him endlessly bound to mediocrity, while those around him grow and progress. Maybe the new rules limiting defensive shifts in 2023 will prove to be a salve for Kepler's long-stagnating game. To be honest I'm not super interested in finding out. Kepler contributed to a roundly horrible performance from the Twins' beleaguered outfield in another sparse offensive week that saw the club score more than four runs just once in seven games: Kyle Garlick, also playing through pain while being forced into more action against righties than anyone would like, went 3-for-24 with 11 strikeouts. Zero walks, zero extra-base hits, zero RBIs. Like Kepler, he probably shouldn't even be on the field. Jake Cave's moment as catalyst and hype man proved short-lived. He managed a double and two singles in 23 at-bats. Gilbert Celestino produced four singles in 19 at-bats. His OPS has cratered to a season-low .623 as he's ceased to present any kind of meaningful threat at the plate. In an ideal world he'd be learning how to hit in Triple-A. With the exception of Varland, pitching was really no better over the past week, surrendering 37 runs and 13 homers in seven games. You of course had the expected lapses from Dylan Bundy (4.2 IP, 7 ER vs. CLE) and Archer (2 ER allowed in 2 IP before exiting Saturday's game). Other struggles were more concerning – like those of Jorge López, continuing to exhibit shaky confidence and command ever since being acquired, as well as the rookie starter they hoped to entrench as a rotation cornerstone. Almost every time he faces a lineup with power, we're reminded why the prospect of Joe Ryan starting a playoff game is so foreboding. That's becoming less of an immediate concern, but still, the Twins will be positioned to depend heavily on Ryan again in 2023, with Tyler Mahle in total limbo, Chris Paddack rehabbing into the season, and Kenta Maeda returning from a lost season at age 35. Wednesday night's game typified the new norm for Ryan, who nibbled around the zone and issued four walks before (former Twin!) Isiah Kiner-Falefa – owner of a .328 slugging percentage coming into the game – delivered a back-breaking grand slam in the fourth inning on a first pitch that must've looked like a beach ball. After looking so cool, collected, and in control early on, Ryan now seems to be on the defensive more often than not, trying keep hitters off his low-90s fastball with secondary stuff that just hasn't been very effective. In the first two months Ryan posted a 2.28 ERA with three home runs allowed in eight starts (0.6 HR/9). Since the start of June, he has a 5.01 ERA with 17 home runs allowed in 15 starts (1.9 HR/9). That's a trend that has reflected the team at large: strong front-runners early on, progressively running out of steam to the point where they now barely look competitive against quality opponents. There's technically time left to turn it around, but why would anyone believe? TRENDING STORYLINE Trailing by 4 ½ games in the AL Central with 23 left to play, the Twins are mathematically still alive, and they actually have a path to making up rapid ground with 11 games in those remaining 23 against the two teams ahead of them. Given the current state of the team, it feels nigh impossible to envision such a turn of fate, but stranger things have happened. For what it's worth, there is still a possibility of the roster getting a bit stronger during these last few weeks. Winder looked decent in his return on Sunday. Bailey Ober rejoining the rotation is imminent after a 66-pitch rehab tune-up at St. Paul on Sunday. Jorge Polanco should be back this week. Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Byron Buxton are all still ostensibly expected to return before year's end, although time is running out for them to make any kind of meaningful impact. LOOKING AHEAD As poorly as they've played, and as fatal as the past week might've felt to any lingering hopes for the Twins, there's a pretty feasible scenario that gets them back within striking distance in the next eight days: Twins sweep the Royals at home. Cleveland drops two of three at home against the Angels while the White Sox split a home two-game series against Colorado. White Sox beat Guardians in a makeup game on Thursday. Twins take four of five from Guardians in Cleveland, while White Sox lose two of three in Detroit. It's a series of events that would leave the division looking like this with a little over two weeks to go: 1st: CWS: 75-71 1st: MIN: 75-71 3rd: CLE: 75-72 (0.5 GB) This would put the Twins in front of Cleveland and tied with Chicago, still holding six head-to-head matchups against the latter. Of course, you might tell me it's not especially feasible for Minnesota to pull this off, given how they've looked, and I'd agree. But the fact remains that the opportunity is still there. Even if you picture a slightly less rosy scenario, it's not unthinkable the Twins are somehow in the thick of it a week from now. Which is incredible to think about. TUESDAY, 9/13: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Kris Bubic v. RHP Joe Ryan WEDNESDAY, 9/14: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Greinke v. RHP Sonny Gray THURSDAY, 9/15: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Lynch v. RHP Dylan Bundy FRIDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. RHP Shane Bieber SATURDAY, 9/17 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. LHP Konnor Pilkington SATURDAY, 9/17 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. TBD SUNDAY, 9/18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Cody Morris View full article

Like I said in the post -- nice success stories for the players, not yet success stories for the organization. Taking out the "buts," "ifs," and "considerings," you cannot objectively call either of these guys successful MLB players yet when they are both 27 years old and have each thrown 125 total innings with below-average ERAs. "Moral victories are for minor-league coaches." - Jay Z