Nick Nelson

Yeah. That's definitely something I speculated. Honest question: did you actually read this article?

Buxton ranks 170 out of 178 MLB players in wOBA over the past month, after ranking 8th out of all MLB hitters in the first month, and he's been openly playing through physical issues, but we're gonna act like this is all some overreaction to a standard baseball slump, huh? Okay. It's clearly not a "minor injury" if it's still affecting him now and the team implies it'll take an entire offseason to fully heal. What a remark.

He's literally had one good offensive game in a month and I'm the one cherrypicking. Come on now.

I think you are overestimating the certainty of medical science. And also we're talking about degrees here. not absolutes Maybe it won't "resolve itself" but will it get better? How could it not?

What is this idea of him "coming around at the plate" based on? One good game on Friday night? Outside of that he's got five singles and one double in 30 at-bats since snapping the 0-fer streak, and zero multi-hit games in the past month.

How would we know until giving it a try? Playing regularly doesn't seem to be helping. It stands to reason that two weeks off of his legs, getting steady treatment, will be helpful to some extent. Only one way to find out how much.

The Twins and Byron Buxton had a strategy: They would keep the banged-up star away from yet another trip to the injured list by feeding him a steady regimen of rest. One can argue the merits of this plan up until now. But as a roster crunch ensues and his performance continues to suffer, this feels like the right time to give Buck a break. Last week, the Twins played games on all seven days and Buxton was out of the starting lineup for three of them. This included two days off in a three-day span (Monday and Wednesday), and Sunday ahead of an off day. Granted, there are mitigating circumstances to account for – he played both ends of a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the team was wrapping an exhausting stretch on Sunday – but they're clearly sticking to their plan of plentiful respites. The plan is working, to an extent: Buxton has avoided the injured list through two months. That's a big victory in and of itself. But he's also doing little to contribute right now, and hamstringing the roster by so frequently being a healthy(ish) scratch. Back in mid-May, when many were debating over the team's handling of Buxton and his frequency of rest days, I tweeted my point-of-view on the matter: If anything, the Twins weren't being cautious enough. When your most important player is wincing through knee and hip ailments, the safe bet is simply to place him on the shelf for a while to heal. Since the date of that tweet (May 16th), Buxton has slashed .155/.254/.241 with one home run and three RBIs. After producing a staggering 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in his first month's worth of games, his WAR over the past month sits at 0.0 – a dead-on replacement level player. Those words feel extremely weird to even type out in connection with Buxton. Slumps happen in baseball. That's the nature of the game. When you go on a tear like Buxton did to open the season, a corresponding downswing is to be expected. Moreover, his underlying metrics haven't taken a worrisome nosedive or anything. I'm not suggesting Buxton is unplayable right now or that there's a dire need to keep him out of the lineup. At the same time, it's impossible not to believe his physical state is negatively affecting his play. The sheer magnitude of his slump, along with the occasional grimace and gingerly step, make clear that he's hampered. When asked a couple weeks ago whether his knee injury was improving, Buxton offered a tepid "no comment." He also, unsurprisingly, expressed a desire to stay off the IL. Since then his numbers have improved a bit – highlighted by Friday night's game, which featured a double and a homer. But he still doesn't look right. He's still taking as much time off as ever. And the Twins are facing some tough roster decisions ahead. Max Kepler will be activated when the Twins return home to open a three-game series against the Yankees. It sounds like Carlos Correa will be activated soon after. Okay, easy enough to make room for those two guys – simply send down Mark Contreras and Jermaine Palacios, who were called up specifically to replace them. But what about making room for Alex Kirilloff? He has found his swing once again in Triple-A, where he's slashing a ridiculous .387/.477/.693 since being optioned in mid-May. Crucially, the power has resurfaced, with Kirilloff mashing four doubles and five home runs in his past eight games for the Saints to earn International League Player of the Week honors. There is simply no reason to leave him in the minors right now. But who gets ousted from the position-player ranks to enable such a move? Trevor Larnach, who was originally swapped in for Kirilloff, certainly isn't going anywhere – he's been one of the team's best players since getting called up. How about Gilberto Celestino? It would make sense logistically, but are you really gonna send down a kid who's batting .350 with an .816 OPS? Nick Gordon? He's been playing pretty regularly and pretty well, with a .265/.308/.490 slash line in his past 15 games, and sending him down would mean losing him on waivers since he's out of options. José Miranda? He would've been the obvious candidate a couple of weeks ago but he too has begun to find his stroke, with a .361/.378/.722 slash line dating back to May 20th. His right-handed power feels too important to lose at this moment. Now, maybe this takes care of itself for the time being, because Kyle Garlick suffered a hamstring pull on Saturday that could lead to him landing on the IL. But I do think that sort of distracts from the point, which is that it would make sense from multiple perspectives to shut Buxton down for a while, sort through the roster crunch, and then bring him back in a couple week. During that span, the crunch figures to work itself out. Maybe Celestino or Miranda start slumping, or Kirilloff's bat doesn't take in the big leagues. Most likely, someone else will get hurt. By the time Buxton comes back, he'll hopefully be healthier, requiring a bit less time off, and ready to get back to mashing. Buck won't like it, but he seems to be aligned with the Twins on this critical directive: doing whatever it takes to ensure he stays on the field throughout the second half and is able to be there for the team when it matters most. View full article

The beleaguered Minnesota Twins are coming back from an ugly and exhausting road trip that saw them hit plenty of bumps and barriers – some of their own creation. Where do things stand as they return home and try to get back to something resembling full strength? Last Week's Game Results: Game 48 | DET 7, MIN 5: Three Homers Not Enough Game 49 | MIN 8, DET 2: Smeltzer Shows Out Again Game 50 | DET 4, MIN 0: Listless Twins Limp to Defeat Game 51 | DET 5, MIN 0: Bats Have No Answers for Skubal Game 52 | DET 3, MIN 2: Pagan Surrenders Lead in 8th Inning Game 53 | MIN 9, TOR 3: Garlick, Miranda Power Explosive Night Game 54 | TOR 12, MIN 3: Berríos Blows Away Former Team Game 55 | MIN 8, TOR 6: Twins Win Rubber Match in Nail-biter Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/30 through Sun, 6/5 *** Record Last Week: 3-5 (Overall: 32-24) Run Differential Last Week: -7 (Overall: +27) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) NEWS & NOTES The pandemic continues to make its ongoing presence felt in the major leagues. The Twins were hit hard by a wave of COVID-related absences over the past week, which left them shorthanded for an intense slate of games on the road. The week began with a crushing blow: Carlos Correa tested positive in the middle of Monday afternoon's game, almost exactly 24 hours after Royce Lewis crashed into the center field wall at Target Field. While the news on Lewis was relatively positive – a bone bruise that figures to cost him weeks rather than months or the entire season – he is still sidelined at exactly the time Minnesota could use him as everyday shortstop. Amazingly rotten timing. This rough series of events did create an opportunity for Jermaine Palacios, who's now up and starting everyday at shortstop. His glove is good enough to serve as a temporary plug even if there are no signs he'll hit at all. On Friday, when the Twins traveled to Canada for a weekend series against the Blue Jays, national health policies required that unvaccinated players stay in the United States. As it turns out, this meant Max Kepler, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, and Trevor Megill were unable to join the team in Toronto. It was a disappointing development made all the more irksome by Kepler's importance to a struggling lineup, and the bullpen ranks already being thin to begin with. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan remained unavailable due to his COVID diagnosis. With Ryan remaining sidelined and Sonny Gray landing on IL due to a pectoral injury, Chi Chi Gonzalez came up to make a (poor) spot start on Friday. Gonzalez was replaced on the roster the next day by Gilberto Celestino, who is finally past his own coronavirus ordeal. He was back in the lineup on Sunday. It's hard to get a firm read on the Twins right now. They are missing so many players and dealing with so many ongoing things that prevent them operating at anything close to full strength. At the same time, they've been banged up to varying degrees all year and there's no reason to think it's gonna stop being an issue at any point. HIGHLIGHTS Many were clamoring for José Miranda to be optioned rather than Lewis when Correa returned from his IL stint in mid-May. It was an understandable sentiment, given how both were playing at the time. But the Twins stuck with Miranda, and he's taken full advantage while reminding us that a little patience is warranted with talented young rookies. Since Lewis was demoted on May 18th, Miranda has gone 13-for-36 with three home runs and four doubles. He launched a pair of bombs in the series-opening 9-3 victory at Toronto and has lifted his OPS into semi-respectable territory at .641 He's still swinging at absolutely everything, with a 22-to-3 K/BB ratio overall, and as long as that remains true it's going to be hard to sustain his production – or at the very least it'll make him very susceptible to woeful slumps like the one that opened his career. But at least we're seeing real signs of that special ability with the bat. Gio Urshela, another player who some called for casting aside in order to keep Lewis around, has also experienced an offensive awakening since around the time Royce was sent down. That continued last week as Urshela went 7-for-21 with a homer and three doubles. He suffered a scary-looking foot sprain on the base paths Friday night, but luckily it appears the third baseman dodged anything major, as he started again on Sunday Elsewhere, Kyle Garlick reaffirmed his immense value as a lefty-mashing weapon, crushing two home runs against Yusei Kikuchi on Friday night. Garlick has been a tremendous asset for the Twins thus far, so hopefully his (reportedly minor) hamstring tightness that surfaced on Friday won't amount to much. LOWLIGHTS The Detroit series was absolutely brutal on every level. For most of the five games, the shorthanded Twins could barely muster any kind of threat or visible urgency. The offense sleepwalked through inning after inning, tallying two total runs in the final three games while getting shut out twice. The pitchers were mostly sub-par despite facing one of the league's worst lineups. Triple-A starters Gonzalez and Cole Sands both looked very much out of their depth when called up out of necessity. Speaking of out of depth: The Twins have basically burned through their quality SP depth. It feels like Devin Smeltzer is kinda holding things together at this point, and that's not a great place to be even though he's been sensational. Getting healthy enough to push Dylan Bundy out of the rotation is a high priority, as it's grown very clear he doesn't have what it takes to pitch effectively in the majors anymore. I wrote here on Monday about how the overperforming bullpen was an alarming point of vulnerability for the Twins, and sure enough the unit sprung big leaks over the course of the week, including Monday's game in which Joe Smith coughed up a late lead. In Thursday's finale at Detroit, Pagán turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit and was tagged with a loss. Tyler Duffey turned in yet another absolute dud on Sunday, coughing up three runs while recording two outs. I do think the ravaged, regressing rotation and undermanned bullpen are big problems for the Twins, but it's hard to hold either entirely culpable when the offense so frequently fails to provide any support. It was the usual story for the bats: overly dependent on home runs, prone to disappearances. On Saturday the Twins faced their old friend José Berríos, who'd been going through a stunningly bad year, and he suddenly found every bit of peak dominance. He finished with 13 strikeouts and 19 swinging strikes against the listless Twins hitters, blowing away his previous highs in 10 starts this year (seven and 11). Ryan Jeffers has become easily the biggest liability in the lineup. He went hitless in four starts last week, finishing 0-for-16 with nine strikeouts and one walk. With a consistent lack of contact and results, his slash line has plummeted to .176/.269/.294 and at some point – if this dire drought continues – you wonder if it'll warrant a get-right trip to the minors. José Godoy could hardly be worse and Jeffers needs to regain some confidence, or at least some idea of what he's doing. Thank goodness for the re-emergence of Gary Sánchez. Jorge Polanco seems unable to find any rhythm at the plate. He was a big culprit in the run-production difficulties at Detroit, going 3-for-20 with one run scored and zero RBIs while starting all five games in the heart of the order. His OPS has plummeted by almost 100 points in the past three weeks, and at this point he's barely outproducing Nick Gordon, whose OPS is only seven points lower. Polanco was stellar in the first half of May but has since looked more like the guy who struggled to engage his base and drive the ball back in 2020, with a .269 slugging percentage in his past 20 games. This slump has conspicuously coincided with reports of ankle soreness. Something to keep an eye on. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins just need to get key players back. It sounds like Ryan, Correa, Gray, and Jorge Alcalá are all close to varying degrees, and they can all be huge difference-makers for their respective units. The team could really use all of them right away, given what's on deck in the coming week (see below), but most of those guys seem to be looking at late-week reactivations at the earliest. At least Kepler and the rest of the restricted list players will be back in action as the homestand gets underway on Tuesday. In Kepler's case, the extra rest couldn't have hurt, as he'd been dealing with a leg issue. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are returning home after their bumpy road trip, but things are hardly about to get easier. Yes, the big bad Yankees are coming to town for a three-game series at Target Field, which is just what the Twins and their fans needed coming off the unpleasant and drama-filled past week. Ready or not, here they come, and I'm sorry to say this version of the Bronx Bombers is an especially imposing one, with the league's best record and Aaron Judge on an ungodly tear. After that the second-place Rays come into Target Field, which isn't much of a respite. Still trying to get healthy and reeling from an ugly road trip, the Twins are looking ahead to another challenging week. They'll be more than happy to take that day off on Monday – their first in nearly three weeks. TUESDAY, 6/7: YANKEES @ TWINS – LHP Nestor Cortes v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 6/8: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Jameson Taillon v. RHP Chris Archer THURSDAY, 6/9: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Gerrit Cole v. TBD FRIDAY, 6/10: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Drew Rasmussen v. RHP Dylan Bundy SATURDAY, 6/11: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Ryan Yarbrough v. LHP Devin Smeltzer SUNDAY, 6/12: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Jeffrey Springs v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article

Basically, yes. WPA is a pure measure of situational outcomes, with a lot of detail missing -- you get tons of credit for protecting a 1-run lead in the 9th, even if you faced the bottom of the lineup and they all hit rockets to the warning track. Wins Above Replacement is all about expected outcomes -- it's influenced by Ks, BBs, and HRs, and less by batted-ball variance. It is, from my view, far more predictive than WPA and usually more predictive than mainstream stats like ERA. Which is not to say it's perfect. I probably wouldn't have written this article if the gap between these two metrics were not so utterly dramatic.

... Yes? Underlying performance indicators tend to be predictive. That's my whole point. I'm not feeding "negativity wolves" I'm addressing a very real and palpable concern about this team's outlook.

In terms of impact on winning ballgames, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has been one of the best in the league this year, playing a key role in propelling the team to first place by a healthy margin through 48 games. But a deeper look reveals alarming signs. Monday's game against the Tigers offered ominous signs of potential things to come. Joe Smith, who allowed zero runs in his first 16 appearances of the season, has now allowed four runs in his past four. He couldn't dance his way out of a leadoff triple in the seventh at Detroit, letting two runs in on three hits and taking the loss. The regression he's experiencing may be a harbinger for the relief corps as a whole. According to Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team's chances of winning from one event to the next, Minnesota's bullpen entered play Monday as the fourth-best in baseball, adding more than two victories to the ledger through clutch performances in tight situations. With the Twins possessing a 9-5 record in one-run games, that sounds about right. However, according to Wins Above Replacement, which seeks to paint a more process-driven picture of value, Twins relievers have been the second-WORST in all of baseball – dead last in the American League. FanGraphs pegs this group as sub-replacement level on whole. That is the case despite breakout star Jhoan Duran pitching incredibly well at the back end. In fact, his status as a crux point in this Twins bullpen might be the scariest thing of all. Without him around, the unit would look dramatically worse and less imposing. In order to avoid turning too often to guys like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán, who are hard to trust, the Twins will need to lean hard on Duran. But we're talking about a guy who threw 16 total innings the past two years, and who dealt with a serious elbow strain for almost all of 2021. There's a huge risk in overusing him. From a big-picture perspective, they should probably err toward underusing him. Reinforcements will be needed as we get into the heart of the summer. Yennier Canó unfortunately did not make a strong impression during his first turn with the big-league club. Danny Coulombe will be out for a while after aggravating his hip injury. Jorge Alcala's return is not imminent. Right now, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Juan Minaya, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill to establish themselves as viable options in leverage, which is not a great place for the Twins to be. (This is where I must obligatorily point out that – as Chris Paddack embarks on the long road back from Tommy John surgery – Taylor Rogers has a 1.17 ERA for the Padres and leads the world in saves, although he did cough up a game to Pittsburgh the other night by allowing three runs.) Minnesota's bullpen has outperformed expectations and underlying metrics like no other in the game. As the season progresses, that balancing act becomes trickier and trickier. So far Rocco Baldelli has mostly been putting relievers in a position to succeed and relievers have mostly been getting it done. How much longer will that sustain? Unless a few guys other than Duran can step up, I fear Monday's slip-up was only the beginning. View full article

The Twins are in the middle of a lengthy run of games with no breaks. They've been taking some hits. They remain in first place by a healthy margin. Now, the going's about to get rough. Last Week's Game Results: Game 42 | MIN 5, DET 4: Urshela Walks It Off Again Game 43 | MIN 2, DET 0: Gray Dominates in Shutout Victory Game 44 | DET 4, MIN 2: Offense Goes Cold, No Sweep Game 45 | KC 3, MIN 2: Bullpen and Bats Fall Short Game 46 | MIN 10, KC 7: Polanco, Correa Provide Power Game 46 | KC 7, MIN 3: Archer Hits a Wall Against Royals Game 47 | MIN 7, KC 3: Twins Split Behind Gray's Win Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/23 through Sun, 5/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 29-19) Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +34) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES On Sunday, Royce Lewis was recalled from Triple-A, with José Miranda going down. Lewis started in center field. The first couple balls in play came his way, and he fielded them flawlessly. Then, he made a great play running into the wall and hurt his surgically repaired knee, which basically sounds like a worst case scenario. As of Sunday night, Lewis was diagnosed with a bone bruise. We'll learn more in the coming week, but he's going on the injured list. The Twins bullpen has seen a constant flow of churn, which is not exactly out of character for the Twins front office, but still exhausting to keep up with. The past week saw Danny Coulombe activated from the injured list and then placed back on it after aggravating a hip injury in his first appearance. Yennier Canó was optioned to Triple-A in the wake of another ugly outing Friday that left his ERA at 13.50. Juan Minaya and Jovani Moran, who both factored into the second-half bullpen mix last year, have been called up as reinforcements. Veteran reliever Hunter Wood was signed to a minor-league contract and will have a chance to make his case at St. Paul for another big-league shot. Coming back from elbow surgery, he has a 3.34 ERA in 91 ⅔ big-league innings. The Twins are digging deeper than ever into their reliever depth. With Coulombe, Cody Stashak, Josh Winder, and Jorge Alcala all sidelined, they need some guys to step up. In the rotation, Joe Ryan missed his scheduled start on Thursday due to COVID, so Devin Smeltzer was called up for another spot start. Smeltzer delivered once again with seven shutout innings. He'll get another turn in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. Elsewhere in the system, pitching prospect Chris Vallimont – designated for assignment the previous week – was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. Gilberto Celestino went on the COVID list two days after Ryan. Max Kepler left Saturday';s game with right quad tightness, although it looks like he'll avoid the IL HIGHLIGHTS The Twins are getting everything they could've possibly hoped for out of Sonny Gray thus far. He delivered his finest outing yet on Tuesday, striking out 10 Tigers over seven shutout innings to spearhead a 2-0 victory. He followed with six innings of one-run ball on Sunday against Kansas City, fanning four with no walks. He exited the game with pectoral soreness. Hopefully it's no big issue, because Gray is becoming exactly what the Twins need him to be: an ace. He's shutting down opposing lineups and going deep, with a clear level of confidence. Gray has been dominating. Of course, he's also been doing so against some pretty weak lineups, with a slate of opponents this month that has included Oakland (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. We'll get a better idea of his potential playoff mettle when the schedule steepens in June. His next scheduled start is the opener of the Blue Jays series, against a high-powered offense on the road. Luis Arraez continues to key the lineup with remarkably consistent production. He ran his hitting streak to nine games last week, starting everyday and going 12-for-27 with four walks. His on-base percentage sits at .456 on the season, making him an ideal asset at the top of the order. Arraez has also looked surprisingly adept at first base – a position he has now firmly taken over for this team. It's an unexpectedly favorable scenario because it both addresses a key need on the field for the Twins, and also largely hides Arraez's defensive deficiencies. He's not a world-beater at first but he's completely fine there, and it's been huge for the team. Other standout performances from the past week included: Gio Urshela opening the week with a walk-off hit and ending it with a three-run blast on Sunday. He had a couple of three-hit games, and continued to make impressive plays at third base, providing a steady veteran presence at the hot corner. Trevor Larnach was a flat-out dominant force, going 9-for-16 with four homers and eight RBIs. He's a crucial cog in the offense right now. Dylan Bundy took care of business against Detroit on Wednesday, holding the Tigers to one run over 5 ⅔ innings. He struck out six and walked one. Since giving up nine earned runs in Baltimore on May 4th and going on the COVID list almost immediately after, Bundy has allowed just that one run over 8 ⅔ innings in two starts. Unfortunately, the Twins wasted his quality effort on Wednesday with a bullpen hiccup and lack of offensive support, just as they did with Smeltzer the following day. Carlos Correa finished 10-for-32 with two doubles and a homer. He doesn't appear hampered by the finger injury that sidelined him, and is starting to show flashes of his potential with an OPS steadily on the rise. It still feels like we're due for a true breakout hot streak from Correa, and it'd be really nice if that coincided with the upcoming run of tough opponents. LOWLIGHTS Byron Buxton went from red-hot to ice-old quicker than Minnesota temps in September. The center fielder saw his hitless streak stretch to 30 at-bats as he started the week 0-for-17 before legging out an infield single late in Friday's game then notching a couple hits over the weekend. The struggles lowered Buxton's average briefly below .200 and he now sits with a .205/.287/.512 slash line on then season – still well above average thanks to his ridiculous power-hitting display early on. In baseball it's pretty standard for cold streaks to counteract hot streaks in the endless dance toward equilibrium, and Buxton's slump seems like a somewhat extreme version of this. He isn't striking out a ton, nor producing terrible contact. Buxton's six-game hitless spell was driven by a high degree of bad luck and happenstance. Then again, he's also clearly playing through lingering discomfort and physical limitation while on the field. You can see it in his mannerisms as he pulls into second on a double, and you have to believe it's affecting his results. For now, the Twins seem intent to stick with their plan of giving him routine days off and avoiding the injured list. Minnesota's offense has been quite good, in relative terms, but like many around the league this year, they've been prone to lengthy periods of quietude. Buxton's slump is certainly a big ingredient in that, but Ryan Jeffers also taking a plunge (1-for-14 last week) has also factored. Various players throughout the lineup – even those who've generally been playing well – have been coming up short in a lot of key RISP spots lately. On multiple occasions the Twins loaded the bases with no outs in key moments, and came away empty. That, combined with some emerging warts in the bullpen, caused the Twins to lose some of the close games that were previously going their way. Tyler Duffey easily had the team's worst Win Probability Added of the week, as he single-handedly coughed up Thursday's contest by turning a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 deficit. The costly clunker was similar to Duffey's season debut, in that he came in with a clean frame and a lead, and ended up with an L. It bears noting that Duffey seemed to be righting the ship – between those two appearances, he had a 2.76 ERA with six holds and a save in 16 outings – but the right-hander is plainly bringing sub-par stuff. Even when he succeeds, it doesn't have sustainable underpinnings. His fastballs are 91-MPH cookies. Even the bread-and-butter breaking ball that fueled Duffey's emergence as a reliever isn't doing what it used to. TRENDING STORYLINE On Saturday night, with Max Kepler facing a potential IL stint following his exit with right leg tightness, I pondered whether Lewis or Alex Kirilloff would get the call to fill his roster spot. It turns out Kepler avoided the injured list, but Lewis was called up anyway, and he ended up on IL in a wild turn of events. So now... Kirilloff has got to be coming up. Right? LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are in the thick of it right now. They're amidst a stretch of 18 games in 17 days, including an upcoming scheduled doubleheader on Tuesday. This is going to be a hell of a week. Granted, the Twins open with five games against a Tigers team they have mostly handled. But they're on the road, and five games in four days presents many challenges no matter whom the opponent. Far from getting any respite after this sprint, the Twins head straight to Toronto for three games against a very good Blue Jays team. This opens a run of three straight series against the top three teams in the AL East. They did a solid job against an extended run against cushy competition, but now the Twins are going to see their mettle put to the test. We're scheduled to see an old friend next Saturday. MONDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Beau Brieske TUESDAY, 5/31 (1): TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Rony Garcia TUESDAY, 5/31 (2): TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. TBD WEDNESDAY, 6/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Tarik Skubal THURSDAY, 6/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Alex Faedo FRIDAY, 6/3: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi SATURDAY, 6/4: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Jose Berríos SUNDAY, 6/5: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – TBD v. RHP Kevin Gausman View full article

Max Kepler left Saturday's game with right quad tightness, and it sounds like there's a fair chance he'll land on the injured list. Should that happen, the player called up to replace him will almost certainly be either Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. So let's try to answer two questions: who will it be, and who should it be? After coming out of Saturday's loss to Kansas City with leg tightness, Max Kepler's status going forward was in doubt. The right fielder was due for an MRI, with Rocco Baldelli saying "it could go either way" in terms of an IL stint. The thing is: even if the Twins think he could return in a few days, they might be inclined to place Kepler in IL anyway. They've already been bitten by shorthanded benches, in instances where Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco were active yet unavailable as late-game subs. Now the Twins are in the middle of an absolute gauntlet of games and travel, with no breaks. Even if Kepler avoids the IL, Minnesota is surely going to need reinforcements soon enough, so the question is pertinent either way: which of their top two talents at Triple-A is next in line? The Case for Royce Lewis Many felt he should've never been sent down to begin with, having excelled during an 11-game stint with the Twins following a scorching hot start at Triple-A. But the Twins wanted to get him a little seasoning around the field so as to ensure Lewis – fresh off missing two full seasons – wasn't taking on too much at once. It's only been a couple weeks since they sent him down, but Lewis has basically shown everything you could want to see in terms of readiness. He's continued to rake with an ultra-aggressive, free-swinging approach. He's made starts in left field, center, and at third, in addition to shortstop. He's flashed immediate proclivity at these new positions. Lewis is the kind of electric difference-maker that would have a real chance to offset the significant loss of a guy like Kepler, who's been one of Minnesota's most valuable players this year. And now the Twins can feel some confidence in moving Lewis around the field to keep him in the lineup everyday. The Case for Alex Kirilloff Unlike Lewis, there is no developmental reason to have Kirilloff in Triple-A, other than: he's not right, and they need him to get right. There are signs he has gotten right. Since being sent down to Triple-A in the middle of May, Kirilloff is hitting .364/.435/.509, so it's safe to say he's a step ahead of minor-league pitching. The question is whether he can translate that success to the majors, where he has a .398 OPS in 10 games this year, and some ugly underlying metrics. The power still hasn't really shown up for Kirilloff – 16 of his 20 hits since returning to the Saints have been singles, although he does have a couple of home runs, including a two-run blast on a good-looking swing Thursday. Kirilloff is a more straightforward one-for-one swap for Kepler than Lewis, given that he's a lefty-swinging corner outfielder. You could essentially plug Kirilloff right into Kep's role, while perhaps mixing in some days at first base and spelling Luis Arraez as DH. Who Will the Twins Choose? The final tidbit above makes me feel like Kirilloff has a good chance. It's easy, it's tidy. However, I tend to think Lewis might have the inside edge. Part of it is that the Twins need a real spark to get through this upcoming stretch if Kepler is sidelined. Lewis has been consistently tearing it up and impressing this year. Kirilloff, despite his very good numbers, is not quite slugging to a convincing extent at Triple-A. Lewis is just a better bet to make a bigger impact. The other thing, and maybe the bigger thing, is that the Twins are in a grind right now. They haven't had a day off in almost two weeks, and they're looking ahead to nine games in the next eight days, with a road doubleheader mixed in. Right now the Twins need bodies they can rely on. Rocco Baldelli probably would (and should) feel inclined to take it somewhat easy on Kirilloff, who is still feeling pain through his swing. Kirilloff certainly would not play both ends of a doubleheader for instance. Lewis, though? He's a spry and incredibly athletic 22-year-old who can play multiple key positions. He's shown no signs of hindrance from last year's knee injury – Lewis stole his 12th base in his 34th game at St. Paul on Saturday. Hopefully Kepler's MRI comes out clean and he's back in the lineup within a few days. If not, I think Lewis gets the call, though it wouldn't surprise me at all if Kirilloff is the choice. Do you see the Twins going with Lewis or Kirilloff as their next position player call-up? Or maybe another direction? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments! View full article

I feel seen ? Hey, the English language is always evolving or something, right?

That is exactly the idea behind this column, so it's great to hear! Thanks for saying so. As someone who follows the team ultra-closely and watches almost every game, I also find writing it each week gives me a level of perspective over the course of a long season. 6-7 game samples aren't all that meaningful, but much more so than 1-game samples.

I was thinking along these lines and wondering how much credit goes to the new hitting coach. Always hard to say from the outside, but it definitely seems like for the most part, hitters are harnessing their strengths and producing. Kepler, Garlick and Celestino have been among the most impressive, especially compared to their track records. Good early returns on Popkins.

With 41 games in the books, that Minnesota Twins are almost exactly 25% of the way through their 2022 schedule. Obviously, things have gone better than expected so far. Here are four thoughts on the first-place Twins as we take stock at this checkpoint. 1: People aren't fully buying into the team's success. The Twins are on pace to win 99 games, which would stack up as one of the best seasons in franchise history. But if this Twins Daily Twitter poll from Sunday night is any indication, most people aren't convinced that they'll be able to keep up with that pace. With 500 votes in, only 5% of respondents said the Twins will finish with 100 or more wins, and only 12% had them landing in the 95-to-99 range where they are currently projected. A vast majority (61%) expect the team to finish with 90-to-94 wins, and more voters envision the Twins winning fewer than 90 (22%) than 95 or more (17%). It's fair! Perspective matters. We are currently sizing up the Twins in the midst of a hot streak against blatantly poor competition. The only time we saw them face a great opponent this month, the Twins were swept and thoroughly dismantled by the Astros – albeit without two of their best players in Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez. Most people are gonna need to see the Twins win a few slugfests in their own weight class before anointing them a true upper-echelon contender. Nothing wrong with that. The team will have its chance in early June with a tour of top dogs in the AL East: Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, successively. 2: The front office's bets are paying off (mostly). The Twins opted not to invest heavily in the free agent reliever market, signing only one player to a major-league contract: Joe Smith, on a cheap one-year $2.5 million deal. That move couldn't have worked out better so far, as Smith has yet to allow an earned run through 16 appearances. The bullpen as a whole has been far better than expected, in spite of the passive offseason approach. The team's belief in Jhoan Durán helped them feel comfortable trading Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack (a bet that did NOT pay off, for this year anyway) on the eve of Opening Day. They've been rewarded. Griffin Jax has also been excellent in his transition to the pen. The front office's boldest gambit of the offseason was that wild mega-deal with the Yankees, which involved losing Mitch Garver and taking on Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela in order to to dump Josh Donaldson's salary. (Thus setting up the Correa signing.) That one's looking pretty good too. Donaldson is hitting decently well as a frequent DH for the Yankees, but drawing headlines in New York for all the wrong reasons. The improvement in clubhouse culture for the Twins since his departure has been apparent even from the outside. Meanwhile, Sánchez is emerging as the slugging force that the Twins hoped Garver (slashing .207/.295/.370 for the Rangers so far) would be. 3: The Twins/White Sox rivalry we wanted last year has now arrived. The Royals and Tigers have already pretty much rendered themselves irrelevant, and it's hard to buy into the mediocre Guardians, despite the greatness of José Ramirez. Chicago has been scuffling a bit in the early going but garnered some momentum on Sunday with a doubleheader sweep over the Yankees. They're back above .500 and trailing the Twins in the Central by four games. There was a lot of hype surrounding the return of this classic rivalry last year, following a tight race in the shortened 2020 season, but the Twins never showed up for the fight. This year they're showing up, and I suspect the White Sox will too. Both teams have a lot of talent and a lot of character, so it should be fun. 4: The combination of standout rookies and established stars is really exciting. There's just a great vibe on this team. It's awesome to see Joe Ryan stepping up and leading the rotation, while Durán establishes himself as The Guy in the bullpen. Gilberto Celestino is blossoming before our eyes. We've already seen flashes from Royce Lewis; he and other top prospects are likely to factor in as the season goes on: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods Richardson, José Miranda (maybe after a get-right stint in Triple-A). All in play. Meanwhile, the true leaders of this team are Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, two bona fide superstars in their prime. Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez are on the next tier. Max Kepler is having a resurgent season to reinsert himself into that conversation. We can maybe say the same about Gary Sánchez, who seems to be getting exactly what he needed out of this change of scenery. The intermingling of experienced mainstays who are performing well, and young up-and-comers who are often contributing immediately, along with a $35M free agent who somehow gives off no "mercenary" vibes ... it's really cool. This is a very likable group and it's adding all the more to the enjoyment of this (so far) surprisingly wonderful 2022 season. Here's hoping we feel the same way at the halfway point, and especially at the finish line. View full article

My opinion: nothing to worry about. I think it's a combination of factors: Pitchers aren't giving him much to hit (which he's adapting to – 8 walks in the past 10 games after drawing 2 in his first 17 games) Really bad luck. He has a .042 BABIP over this span, which is just ridiculous. The quality of contact is down a little but he's not striking out a ton or falling apart mechanically or anything. I think it's just a lil slump to offset this absurdly hot start.

Thanks for the post Jason! Looking forward to reading more of your stuff. Just from going through your list of random thoughts I can tell we'll often be on the same page.