Nick Nelson

I was wondering about that too. Seems to be in reference to this, I wouldn't really treat it as a sign of much that he has soreness following a surgery like that:

These five players have key questions to answer in the season ahead. I promise none of them have to do with injuries. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain. These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle. Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals. 1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams? Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents. In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings. Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason. 2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void? There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost. You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better. To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential? Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart. He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt. Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric. Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can. 4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively? The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. Now he needs to define his defensive future. If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route. Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors. But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit. 5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out? Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21? The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end. Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties. Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way. View full article

A big month of January has redefined the Twins' offseason, generating a sense of excitement that was palpable at TwinsFest and the Winter Meltdown. As spring training fast approaches, let's get up to speed on the action and chart what moves (if any) might still be left on the table. Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports Just after the New Year, we were lamenting the failed pursuit of Carlos Correa and puzzling over Michael Wacha rumors amidst what felt like a very unfulfilling offseason for the Twins. Less than a month later, we can safely call this the splashiest winter in franchise history. The highlight of January was the stunning and record-shattering Correa signing. But in the weeks since, there's been more significant activity to round out the roster. The front office followed up its biggest move with perhaps its most controversial. Twins Trade Arraez to Acquire López from Marlins It's extremely rare for a team to trade away the reigning batting champion – hasn't happened since 1978 – but the Twins did just that (again) when they agreed to send Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for starting pitcher Pablo López and two prospects. Arraez was coming off a career year that saw him make the All-Star team in addition to winning the AL batting title and taking home a Silver Slugger award. He was the only Twins player to receive MVP votes. Needless to say, his value was at a high point, which made him appealing to the bat-needy Marlins. Undeniably a tough price to pay, but that's what it takes to get controllable, young, high-end pitching, and there's a good argument to be made that the Twins were wise to sell high on Arraez. López adds crucial veteran depth to a rotation besieged by question marks, significantly raising both the unit's floor and ceiling. He doesn't quite clear the Sonny Gray Threshold but he reaches it, and that makes him a worthy addition to the Twins rotation mix. Crucially, the 26-year-old right-hander is under control for an additional year, in 2024, which gives the Twins some much-needed ongoing pitching stability with Gray, along with Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, due for free agency next offseason. Of course, López's two years of team control equates to one fewer than Arraez, so the pressure is on for the hurler to deliver big returns in order to keep this deal from looming as an unforgivable misstep in the eyes of many fans. The Twins were able to offset their risk a bit by acquiring a pair of teenaged prospects, Jose Salas and Byron Chourio, with considerable upside. Michael A. Becomes Plan B in Center Field The Twins can and will hope for the best with Byron Buxton this year, but they can't plan for it. And they know that. It's what compelled them to swing yet another trade shortly after completing the Marlins deal, when they acquired outfielder Michael A. Taylor from the Royals in exchange for a pair of unexceptional pitching prospects, lefty Evan Sisk and righty Steven Cruz. It's a modest but meaningful price to pay for a modest but meaningful addition to the Twins roster. While hardly a star, Taylor is an elite defensive outfielder and has been a regular for Kansas City over the past two seasons, posting 3.4 fWAR over 266 games. For reference, Arraez was worth 4.8 fWAR over 265 games in the same span, albeit in the exact opposite fashion: all offensive value, no defense. In Taylor's case, fielding prowess is the selling point and it's an appealing one. He won a Gold Glove in 2021 and has consistently rated out brilliantly by defensive metrics. His Statcast sliders from last year pretty much tell the whole story: elite range, reactions, and arm that enable him to cover all three outfield positions extremely well. With Taylor around, the Twins have a veteran starting center fielder lined up right behind Buxton -- a sizable upgrade from a year ago when Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino made do in a pinch. Rocco Baldelli can feel much more comfortable writing in Buck as DH frequently knowing that there will be no defensive downgrade in center from doing so. Taylor's righty bat lines up nicely for spelling the lefty-swinging corner outfielders as well, but glovework is the highlight here and I can't wait to watch him work. More Moves Left to Come? Are the Twins done? Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks. Their roster is in pretty good shape after the January flurry, but there are a few areas that could still stand to be addressed. The first is their logjam of lefty-swinging corner outfielders, which was worsened instead of relieved by adding Joey Gallo while Max Kepler (for now) stays put. All offseason we heard that Kepler had more trade value than people perceived, but as things wind down the front office seems to content holding him instead of dealing for an unsatisfactory return. (Maybe his trade value isn't really THAT much higher than perceived.) Kepler remains a quality player on a reasonable contract, so keeping him isn't the worst thing in the world, but it sure feels like his roster spots could be better used by, say, a righty-swinging DH/1B type. (The Twins have been connected to Yuli Gurriel, who remains available.) The bullpen is one other area that could still benefit from one more addition. Finding one more semi-stable option for the middle innings would be akin to supplementing the rotation with López. (And I don't mean Jorge López, who lends to this unit's volatility factor.) Michael Fulmer is still sitting out there, oddly unsigned... Roster & Payroll Projection v. 7 Unless the Twins make one of the above moves, or another that falls outside of expectations, this might be our last offseason status update and roster projection until we get to spring training and can start mapping things out with increasing confidence. As it stands, what you see below is roughly the group they'll be planning to roll with this year. Team payroll is above $150 million, which would set a new franchise record. Meanwhile, the rest of the division has barely done a thing all winter. You can't win anything in the offseason, and the Twins are coming from a tough position off a third place finish with all their injury concerns. But there's not much more they could have done to address the weaknesses that pulled them down in 2022. View full article

I would say these have been addressed, mostly. Pagan was basically the de facto closer on Opening Day last year, this year he'll be like 5th in the pecking order. Last year Buxton had no credible backup in CF, this year he has an elite defensive veteran. Switching pitching coaches at midseason is going to have an adverse effect on any team, but now Maki will have a full offseason and spring to run his own plan and approach. He'll also have considerably more talent/depth to work with, which should benefit both him and Baldelli from a game management standpoint. The reality is that there was no avoiding a scenario where they were going to be dependent on likely-to-be-injured stars. They can't trade Buxton and they really can't trade guys like Kirilloff or Mahle or Maeda because of their situations. All they can do is try to provide them with the best training support possible and buoy them with plenty of depth, which they did.

The Twins hired a new hitting coach just last year (David Popkins) and he's quite highly regarded so I wouldn't expect another change anytime soon.

After a promising start in 2022, the Minnesota Twins faded hard and wound up losing 84 games to finish in third place. The front office's key imperative this offseason was to address the shortcomings that led to that downfall, positioning this year's team to weather inevitable storms and make it across the finish line atop the division. How've they done? Image courtesy of Scott Taetsch, Troy Taormina, Scott Galvin –USA Today Sports Reviewing the Twins offseason up to this point after a flurry of January activity, some notable trends and focal points emerge. In sizing up the front office's moves this winter, it strikes me that there was a clear intent to address six key areas that factored into last year's fade, starting with the biggest one: Better physical outcomes with a new head trainer. One of the first moves the Twins made this offseason was replacing head athletic trainer Michael Salazar with Nick Paparesta, a reputed leader in the field who'd spent the past 12 years in Oakland with the A's. It was a fitting top priority for the front office coming off a season that was completely wrecked by injuries, with unending recovery timelines and frustrating setbacks decimating the roster. The Twins were not a flawless team, as we'll cover below, but the level of physical attrition and number of days lost gave them no legitimate chance to hang on. To a large extent, injuries are uncontrollable. Training staffs tend to become scapegoats in circumstances where sheer bad luck is the prime culprit. But that's the nature of the beast, and as bad as things got last year, it can't hurt to bring in a fresh – yet seasoned – perspective. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Better pitching depth from the start. The pitching staff was definitely hurt by injuries last year, but not to the same degree as the lineup. No, the problem with the Twins' pitching staff last year was more foundational: On Opening Day, they had Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as members of the starting rotation. On Opening Day, they had Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, and Josh Winder – owner of zero major-league innings – all as part of the bullpen. This year the Twins will be much more structurally sound from the start on the pitching side. The return of Kenta Maeda, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Pablo López, have surrounded Sonny Gray with a bevy of proven veterans. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who both pitched very well last year, push the rotation to six deep, while Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson have both proven ready to step in. Randy Dobnak is a wild card. On the bullpen side, Jhoan Durán emerged as a force last year while Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax are both coming off outstanding seasons. Jorge López, if he returns to form, can give the Twins an unparalleled 1-2 punch alongside Durán in the late innings. Jorge Alcalá is back after missing almost all of last year, joining middle-relief options like Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe. Your mileage may vary on Emilio Pagán but he's a high-upside piece they don't need to rely on. I wouldn't be surprised to see another addition on the relief side (Michael Fulmer, come on down?), but as things stand, the 2023 Twins are in a much better position on pitching stability. Dynamic contingencies and depth in the position player corps. If you want to stir up some bad memories, I've got a recommendation to fulfill your sadistic urge: go back and pull up a random Twins starting lineup from last August or September. The club's utterly ravaged position-player corps regularly left Rocco Baldelli submitting sad lineups with little hope to compete. Nick Gordon and Gio Urshela trading off at cleanup. Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting against lefties. Gilberto Celestino hitting fifth or sixth, repeatedly. It was ugly, and something none of us want to experience again. The front office is doing everything it realistically can to prevent it. Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor are borderline starting-caliber players and top-shelf backups. They both provide experience, flexibility, and defensive prowess to help keep things chugging along in a variety of injury scenarios. The Twins are stacked with options in the corners and that's before you account for their prospects nearing readiness. Presently, it's kind of hard to see how someone like Gordon or Trevor Larnach is even going to find his way to steady at-bats. Things will change, as we know, but the Twins are well prepared for that eventuality. Even with their 2022 leader in plate appearances gone, Minnesota is very strong on depth across the board. Improved hitting against left-handed pitchers. Southpaws were a perpetual pain point for the Twins last year, holding the team to a .240/.310/.391 overall slash line while regularly shutting down poorly optimized lineups. This owed partially to injuries, especially later on, but was also a result of poor planning. Kyle Garlick can mash lefties and is a nice piece to have on hand, but you don't want to be primarily dependent on him in that role as they were last year. This year, Garlick will likely open in Triple-A as ready-made depth for the same role. Meanwhile, the big-league club is significantly more balanced on the bench. Taylor could hardly be described as a "lefty masher" but he's solid against them, and should reduce the need for lefty-hitting outfielders to start against same-siders. The big add here is Farmer, whose defensive flexibility will allow him to plug in all over and start against almost all left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .288/.345/.492 career slash line (including .309/.380/.568 last year). Run prevention via defensive improvements. You might feel the Twins were not emphatic or aggressive enough in their approach to upgrading a pitching staff that ranked 14th in runs allowed and remains plagued by question marks. You'd have a fair point. But the name of the game isn't pitching well – it's preventing runs. While performance on the mound obviously plays a major role, defense is also a big factor in this equation. The Twins weren't necessarily bad in this area last year, ranking 12th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved thanks in large part to CF/RF, but they could stand to get better. In 2023, they're poised to field one of the best defensive units in the league. Buxton and Correa return as elite up-the-middle defenders, and are joined by glove-first catcher Christian Vázquez. Newcomer Joey Gallo adds a standout fielder to the corner mix. Max Kepler provides another top-shelf glove if he sticks around, and if he goes, Larnach's a very good defender in his own right. Alex Kirilloff is a superior first baseman to Luis Arraez (Gold Glove hub-bub aside), and we won't see Arraez's sub-par defense at second or third, which is a benefit through this lens. Even beyond the starting lineup, we find defensive strength in the Twins' depth. Taylor is a great center fielder whose range is elite in the outfield corners. Farmer is a capable shortstop who excels at the infield corners. Jeffers is a glove-first backup to a glove-first starter. Greater catching stability. Speaking of Jeffers and Vázquez, the presence of these two puts the Twins in a much better position behind the plate than they were last year, when Minnesota backstops collectively posted a .629 OPS and just 1.8 fWAR. Dealing away Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt left the Twins woefully short on high-level catching depth. When Jeffers went down, they were forced to lean on Gary Sánchez as a starter before turning over the reins to no-hit veteran Sandy León after grabbing him from Cleveland's Triple-A club. Bringing in Vázquez makes a profound difference in this regard, giving the Twins two starting-caliber catchers to buttress against an injury to either. The addition of Tony Wolters on a minor-league deal also supplies the Twins with some experienced depth at Triple-A; Wolters has played more than 400 games in the majors, albeit only 16 since 2020. Additions like Vázquez and Wolters might not be the most exciting, but like many of the other moves mentioned above, they had strategic underpinnings geared toward shoring up the weaknesses that brought down the 2022 Twins. View full article

More than 300 Twins fans crowded into The Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis on Saturday night as Twins Daily's Winter Meltdown event returned for the first time since 2020. Read on for a recap of the evening's events. Taking place a few blocks away from Target Field at The Pourhouse, the 2023 Winter Meltdown brought together hundreds of people for a lively night of food, drinks, and baseball chatter. The staff at the venue did an excellent job keeping up with a huge crowd of attendees, serving up tasty 612Brew beers, snacks, sliders, and more. Twins fans and media, many having walked over from TwinsFest at Target Field, filled both of Pourhouse's two levels to catch the action on-stage, which featured Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes interviewing two iconic figures in Twins media, as well as several interactive games and giveaways. The first interviewee was legendary columnist Patrick Reusse, fresh off being recognized by the Twins with the Herb Carneal Lifetime Achievement Award in honor of his decades covering the team. As always, Reusse was full of amusing anecdotes and snarky one-liners, sharing his thoughts on the Luis Arraez trade, Joey Gallo's strikeouts, and MLB's rule changes, among other things. Reusse was followed by featured speaker Glen Perkins, a former three-time All Star closer for the Twins who now serves as analyst and commentator for the Bally Sports North broadcast team. In the past I've called Perkins a Twins Daily Hall of Famer: a hometown big-leaguer who was one of the team's best players throughout the site's early years of existence, adopted an analytical mindset midway through his career, and once famously bought a bunch of TD pub-crawlers a round of beers from the bullpen during a rain delay. He was a perfect headliner for the Winter Meltdown's return, and was a great guest, reminiscing on his playing days while also sharing insights about the current team and the state of baseball. I found particularly interesting Perk's explanation of how the front office influences the contents of the TV broadcast: the increased presence of people like him who can speak to the analytical side of baseball is no coincidence. As he put it, they want fans and viewers to gain a better understanding of the game through this lens because it's fundamental to how they build and run the team. If you missed the event, you can catch recordings of both Reusse's and Perkins' interviews on the latest episode of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. There were plenty of other highlights from the night, including some recognizable faces among the crowd (I enjoyed catching up with former Minneapolis mayor and staunch Twins Daily advocate RT Rybak) along with plenty of great apparel on display. The rebrand seems to be resonating with the fanbase, as the updated logo and styles were quite prevalent. With that said, the "best dressed" award has to go to the combo of Aaron Rupar and Brett Howe, who were sporting Giants and Mets Carlos Correa shirseys, respectively. It's all part of the unique Winter Meltdown experience that I have missed so dearly over these past two years. I'm filled with gratitude for everyone who played part in making it happen, and who came out to make it what it was. HUGE thank you Bonnes, who did a majority of the legwork on planning and overseeing the event. Big thanks also to Reusse and Perkins, who were among the most engaging guests we've had; The Pourhouse for hosting us with such great accommodations; and to 612Brew for supplying the beers and take-home pint glasses. The scale this event has reached is truly amazing to me, and speaks to the powerful sense of community among Twins fans, and surrounding this website specifically. We appreciate you all. If you didn't make it this year, I hope to see you at next year's Meltdown – or better yet, this summer at the ballpark. View full article

At the turn of the new year, I took a shot at ranking the top 20 assets in the Twins organization, in an attempt to contextualize the players and prospects most vital to fulfilling a championship vision. Some major developments have since taken place, so it feels appropriate to try and update the list. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone, Tommy Gilligan, Tim Heitman–USA Today Sports When I published these rankings for the sixth time this year, I mentioned how much more challenging I found the exercise than in the past. "For one thing," I wrote, "it feels like we're in the midst of a slow-developing offseason journey with big twists still ahead. I have a strong feeling there will be noticeable changes to this list by March 30th." Sure enough, we've seen plenty of upheaval since, and it's not even January 30th yet. The blockbuster moves that took place within the past two weeks have shaken up the franchise's talent layout in profound ways, to the extent that it feels worthwhile to revisit those rankings. The Twins shattered their precedent by signing Carlos Correa to a $200 million deal. They traded an controllable young All-Star and batting champ in Luis Arraez for a new pitcher. How do these additions fit into the overall hierarchy of talent in the organization? Let's take a look. The Original Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023 The idea of these rankings was to provide a relative view of Twins players and prospects by appraising their big-picture value to the organization. The goal was to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? I published my latest annual rankings at the beginning of January. You can read the explanations for each in that four-part series of articles ... Part 1: #20-16 Part 2: #15-11 Part 3: #10-6 Part 1: #5-1 ... But to summarize, here are the original 2023 rankings as I had them laid out: Byron Buxton, CF Brooks Lee, SS Joe Ryan, RHP Jorge Polanco, 2B Royce Lewis, SS Bailey Ober, RHP Jhoan Durán, RHP Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF José Miranda, 3B Luis Arraez, IF Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Connor Prielipp, LHP Austin Martin, OF Trevor Larnach, OF Ryan Jeffers, C Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Jorge López, RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Louie Varland, RHP Matt Wallner, OF Now the Twins have re-signed their reigning team MVP to a six-year contract, and traded the player previously ranked #10 for a pitcher and two prospects. How do these game-changing moves affect the big picture? I took a shot at updating my rankings and here's where I landed: The Revised Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023 Byron Buxton, CF Carlos Correa, SS Brooks Lee, SS Joe Ryan, RHP Jorge Polanco, 2B Royce Lewis, SS Bailey Ober, RHP Jhoan Durán, RHP Pablo López, RHP Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF José Miranda, 3B Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Connor Prielipp, LHP Austin Martin, OF Trevor Larnach, OF Ryan Jeffers, C Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Jorge López, RH Louie Varland, RHP Matt Wallner, OF There are a few significant changes in this update, including a shakeup in the top 10. Here's a look at the additions and subtractions, and how the thought process played out: Correa is in at #2. Locking up a superstar player for six years at age 28 on a contract like this, with team-friendly terms at the back end, can't be viewed as anything more than a huge win. I contemplated putting him ahead of Buxton but Correa has his own unique heightened injury risk attached and his deal isn't quite so favorable to the team as Buck's. Either way, these are clearly their two foundational assets going forward. Pablo López is in at #9. This felt like the right spot to me. He's got two years of control remaining compared to five apiece for Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, so I don't view him as quite the same level of value even if he's probably a cut above in terms of talent. Still, a big addition for a franchise that really needed more controllable starting pitching. Previously I had Arraez ranked as the #10 asset, so this looks like a winning trade through that lens even before you account for prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio, who would likely fall in the 25-35 range. Gray drops out from #18. The addition of Lopez also makes Sonny Gray a bit less indispensable, in my mind. I had him 18th in the original rankings because, "As things currently stand, Gray is the only pitcher in the organization who can credibly be looked at as a dependable frontline starter for 2023." That's no longer the case. With López aboard, and under control for an additional year, I actually think the Twins could feasibly trade Gray if the right offer came along, which wasn't much of an option before. (That's not to say I would advise it.) When I assembled these rankings the first time around, I was feeling pretty decent about the state of the Twins franchise both today and going forward. Needless to say, I'm feeling even better now. While the loss of a top-10 asset in Arraez hurts, the Twins recouped that value and then some by acquiring López and a pair of high-upside teenaged prospects. Meanwhile, the stunning Correa signing reshapes this franchise's future, embedding another true MVP-caliber talent in his prime alongside Buxton to lead the way. Simply put, the Twins are in a significantly better place now than they were a month ago. Catch up on past editions of the top 20 Twins asset rankings: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022 View full article

Very true. Underrated moves on behalf of the pitching staff. There are many ways to approach run prevention.

By trading for Pablo López as their big offseason rotation addition, the Twins followed a familiar script, leveraging talent to acquire cost-controlled pitching while allocating their budget primarily to the offense. For better or worse, it's grown clear this strategy is very intentional. Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this month, the Twins shocked the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa to a $200 million contract. The move would've seemed inconceivable for this franchise as recently as five years ago, but in recent offseasons, Minnesota has signaled its willingness to start wading into the deeper end of the spending pool. After all, they first signed Correa just a year ago, albeit to a short interstitial deal that paved way for this one. Months earlier, the Twins had extended Byron Buxton with a $100 million contract, two years after handing free agent Josh Donaldson a then-record $92 million. Compared to the previous regime, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown a drastically greater willingness to profer these kinds of large-scale contracts, which are somewhat rare for teams in their class. (For context, Chicago's $75 million deal for Andrew Benintendi last month was the largest free agent commitment in White Sox history.) Notably, however, this appetite has been limited entirely to the position player side. Minnesota's current front office has been comparatively averse to investing dollars on the pitching side. Pablo López falls in line with a distinct pattern when it comes to acquiring rotation help: they trade talent (in this case Luis Arraez) for a cost-controlled starter who fits snugly into the budgeting forecast for multiple seasons. Minnesota did the same thing with Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year, and with Sonny Gray the prior offseason. They did it with Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda, and Jake Odorizzi. They traded away José Berríos, in part, because he was reaching the end of that cost-controlled window. Only in one case have these situations ever led to the Twins paying a remotely market-rate salary for one of these frontline starters: in 2020, when Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer to earn around $18 million. Of course, the club ended up paying out less than half that amount due to the truncated COVID season. Outside of that instance, Gray's $12.5 million salary this year will supplant Lance Lynn in 2018 ($12 million) as the highest salary paid to any pitcher acquired by this front office in seven years. Michael Pineda's two-year, $20 million contract signed in December of 2019 – also prorated down, because of his carryover suspension – remains the largest Falvey has given a pitcher. It's 10% of the amount they just guaranteed Correa. So like I said, the pattern is pretty stark. The question is, what's driving it? Why are the Twins comfortable allocating such an outsized proportion of their available budget to position players while persistently minimizing money tied up in arms? I think it comes down to volatility and risk. Back in November, I wrote an article on the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching. I was citing a dynamic that I believe prevents the Twins – and really, the vast majority of mid-market teams – from winning bids for top free agent pitchers available at their peak. Namely: you are paying the utmost long-term premium for pitchers in their late 20s or early 30s who are hitting the sharp downward slope of the aging curve. Look back no further than last year's free-agent class to see the pitfalls of this buy-high philosophy: Robbie Ray, for example, got a $115 million deal from the Mariners coming off a breakout Cy Young year and then reverted right back to his previous ordinary form. The contract already looks like a hindrance for them. There are worse outcomes. Signing up commit pay big bucks to starting pitchers, who've already often logged 1,000+ innings, through their mid-30s is flat-out hazardous. The Yankees bought high on Carlos Rodón and earmarked $162 million to lock him up through age 35. The upside he brings as a true ace exceeds almost any bat you can buy on the market, but it's counterbalanced by the tremendous risk of his shoulder issues flaring up and making him a non-factor. With their financial inhibitions, New York can afford to assume that risk without catastrophic collateral downside. Most teams operating in lesser markets can't or won't. Of course, there's even more risk in simply not acquiring pitching talent. It's not an option if you want to compete, and you lack the elite development machines of a Tampa or Cleveland. For Minnesota, the preferred course has been to trade for second-tier starters in their prime. This prevents risky long-term commitments and keeps the rotation's budget share in check, enabling the Twins to invest in building around the likes of Correa and Buxton, who now occupy a third of the payroll with almost 300 million in combined dollars owed. I'm not going to say staking the franchise's future on Correa and Buxton is WITHOUT RISK, of course, but star position players tend to age a bit more reliably than standout starting pitchers, in part because they have more "outs." If injuries continue to impact Buxton, he can still make a real difference while spending time at DH, as we saw last year. If Correa's ankle forces him off shortstop, he can move to third, as he planned to with the Mets. When you're paying top dollar for a starting pitcher and they get struck by injuries that keep them off the mound or diminish their performance, it's harder to maintain that value equation. For teams with finite spending capabilities (self-imposed as they may be), that matters. Continually trading quality prospects to replenish their rotation will not necessarily be a viable strategy for the Twins going forward, so the success of this approach really comes down to how well their efforts with the pitching pipeline come together. The front office has put in place a potential lineage to support sustained rotation success – with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson followed by the likes of Marco Raya, Connor Prieilipp, and more – but pressure is rising to see it pay off and embed some legitimate fixtures so they don't have to keep trading their way to patchwork solutions. In theory, allocating your funds to superstar everyday players and relying on a sustained and regenerative pipeline of younger, fresher, lower-cost pitchers is a savvy strategy. In theory. View full article

The question being asked is simply: who is the Twins #1 option at DH against RHPs when all their regulars are at their designated positions? Luis Arraez was lined up to get the vast majority of those at-bats and now they are for the taking. You don't think that's worth discussing? Opening Day was only being used to exemplify the broader topic.

Tend to agree. It would be Farmer or Garlick against a LHP and that'd be just fine. There isn't a ton of need for another RH bat at DH, which is what limits the appeal of guys like Yuli and Reyes and Sano, but in those cases it's a pure "lightning in a bottle" play. Larnach would be a fine fit but I think the questions you've gotta answer there are: Are you stunting his development by giving him somewhat sporadic playing time and very few OF reps? He's a very promising defender. Do they actually trust him to be a great hitter right away? He ended the year hurt and has a .684 career OPS. If he looks rusty at the plate in spring training, how much confident do the Twins lose? Same questions are more or less in play for Wallner, btw.

I agree. Every potential addition I listed can at least fill in at some other position. The question I was mostly seeking to answer was, "How can they upgrade their bench in a way that most takes advantage of the open ABs at DH?"

If the Twins are giving any kind of consideration to having Vazquez make any significant number of starts at DH, that would substantiate the premise of this article. Not sure where the idea comes from that Correa is going to be at DH once a week. He's an elite defensive shortstop and that's a massive part of his $36M value. Correa made 4 total starts at DH last year. Buxton will be there frequently for sure, Miranda too probably (with Farmer at third), and that's all great against LH pitching but who's getting the brunt against righties? Why not optimize a bit when you have the flexibility? Vazquez would be an even sadder option than Sanchez, who got 32 DH starts last year.

You actually expect one of those guys to be the Opening Day DH? Wanna bet?

The Twins traded Luis Arraez, in part, because he was functionally redundant with the makeup of their roster and position player mix. However, his departure does leave a clear hole in the projected regular starting lineup. How will they fill it? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports On March 30th in Kansas City, the Twins will kick off their season against the Royals and presumably a right-handed starter (Brady Singer?). Prior to last week's Pablo López trade, the most likely Opening Day lineup for Minnesota would have featured Alex Kirilloff at first base, José Miranda at third base, and Luis Arraez at designated hitter. Now, they'll need to find another way to fill that last spot. In some ways, the question feels rather unimportant; it's just one game, and the Twins are likely to rotate different players like Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Miranda through the DH spot frequently. There doesn't necessarily need to be a "primary" guy at the position, and indeed we saw this play out last year in the absence of Nelson Cruz, with 10 different players getting distributed starts at DH. However, trying to figure out who Rocco Baldelli will write in at designated hitter against a right-handed pitcher on Opening Day will tell us a great deal about the current state of the roster, the quality of the 'A lineup,' and the decisions (or opportunities) that still lie ahead. INTERNAL OPTIONS If the Twins don't make any more significant additions to the mix (which I rather doubt), here are the options in play to handle DH on Opening Day, and on a semi-regular basis against righties: Nick Gordon Gordon is probably the simplest default answer, in that he will assuredly be on the roster and won't have a designated starting position. He slashed .289/.329/.465 against right-handed pitchers last year so he's definitely a viable threat versus someone like Singer but ... the wiry utility man would be an odd fit as designated hitter on Opening Day, or as the regular plug there. Last year, he made zero starts at DH. Trevor Larnach I think Larnach is by far the best fit as lefty-swinging DH option for the Twins, so long as he is on the roster. At the moment, it's not totally clear he will be. If the club is carrying Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Kirilloff and Gordon, is there room for a fifth lefty-swinging corner guy? Maybe – especially if they treat Larnach as more of a regular DH and Gordon more as the fourth outfielder. But Larnach is still developing and the Twins need to be thoughtful about getting him consistent action. Matt Wallner Similar to Larnach, Wallner is victimized by the backlog of lefty corner outfielders. Since he's behind (a healthy) Larnach in line, his path to claiming this role is even more obstructed. Trading Kepler would create a much clearer path for either to carve out an immediate spot on the big-league roster. Edouard Julien The emergence of Julien was likely a major factor in the front office's willingness to deal Arraez. Julien is quite similar in profile: a lefty-hitting infielder with excellent OBP skills and no clear defensive fit. If the Twins wanted to replace some semblance of what Arraez brought to the table in the DH spot, this would be the route. It would also be pretty aggressive, as the 23-year-old Julien has yet to play above Double-A (where he slashed a ridiculous .332/.465/.566 vs. RHP last year). If the Twins keep their current personnel and hold an open competition at DH this spring, I could see Julien claiming the gig, drawing most of the DH starts against righties while Buxton, Correa, and Miranda fill in against lefties. Alex Kirilloff I'm including Kirilloff in this list because he would theoretically be a logical fit as DH against right-handers. He'll probably get the occasional look there. But I think the Twins view him as by far their best defensive first baseman. If his wrist is good enough to swing, it's good enough to play first base, and that's where they'll want him on Opening Day and most days. EXTERNAL OPTIONS None of the above options would be bad, per se. But for the Twins to go one of those routes would feel like leaving an opportunity on the table – opportunity to add one more potential impact veteran bat, and a player who could be useful in additional ways. Here are a few options that stand out to me as potential late-offseason additions capable of upgrading the Twins' lineup and helping fill in at DH with Arraez gone. Yuli Gurriel He was a longtime fixture at first base for the Astros, and preceded Arraez as AL batting champ in 2021. He's also 38 and struggled to an 84 OPS+ this past season, which is why he's still trying to land a contract at this stage of the offseason. Gurriel is a righty hitter, so he doesn't quite fit the bill as a masher to rotate in against RHP, but his splits are fairly neutral. The hope here would be that his bat rebounds, while his contending experience (including 85 career postseason games) and veteran presence combine to deliver a "Nelson Cruz Lite" impact. Interestingly, the Twins have reportedly shown interest in Gurriel of late. Robbie Grossman Our old friend spent three seasons with the Twins (2016-18), accruing a .266/.371/.400 slash line, which is basically Arraez with fewer singles. He's since spent time with Oakland, Detroit, and Atlanta, struggling last year to a .622 OPS. He maintained his usual patience, and the switch-hitting 33-year-old would represent a cheap rebound bet. (In 2020-21 he had a 118 OPS+.) This is the kind of modest gamble the Twins could afford – so long as they're willing to cut the cord relatively quickly if it's not working – because they have so many fallback options in place. Jurickson Profar In terms of the role we're discussing here, this is probably the biggest splash the Twins could realistically make. Profar is one of the best remaining free agents on the market, coming off a 2.5 fWAR season in San Diego. He's an intriguing fit for the Twins as a switch-hitter with defensive versatility. Profar also has ties to Thad Levine from his days in Texas. An acquisition of this magnitude would really put a bow on the offseason, but you wonder if Minnesota's realistically willing to offer enough guaranteed money or playing time to sway the 29-year-old. Miguel Sanó Look, there would be no risk in signing Sanó to a minor-league contract and seeing what he's got in spring training, if he's not getting bites elsewhere. A version of the big slugger that even approximates his career 116 OPS+ would be useful to the Twins as a part-time DH and starter at first against lefties. No one wants to hear it anymore but Sanó was actually hitting the ball reasonably well in 2022, despite the paltry production before a knee injury ended his season. While skill sets like his tend to degrade more quickly, I'm not convinced he's cooked. Franmil Reyes This would be similar to the Sanó gamble, except with a fresh face and less all the baggage. Reyes was of course a highly touted young slugger when Cleveland acquired him from San Diego in 2019, but he's stagnated and regressed after some early success. Alas, Reyes is only 27 and has a .251/.313/.470 career slash line. Why not? As recently as 2021 he launched 30 homers in 121 games with an .846 OPS. Luke Voit Voit would represent a lower-upside but higher-floor variation of the above two suggestions. The Twins wouldn't be banking so much on a rebound because he wasn't bad in 2022, he was just himself: a plodding righty slugger who will strike out a bunch and hit some home runs, translating to average-ish production overall. He definitely belongs at DH but can fill in at first base occasionally. What are your thoughts? Does anyone on the free agent or trade market stand out as a strong fit to you? Or are you more interested in going with internal options? View full article

I'm glad you brought this up. I was going to mention it in this article but couldn't find the right place. Boras is known as much as any agent for fiercely advocating on behalf of his clients. Yes, he wants to get them money, but he is also deeply invested in their interests and finding them the best fits. That's why he's risen to the top. The fact that he seems so inclined to do business with the Twins -- and the Paddack deal is another good example -- seems like another point in favor of this article's premise. Even if they don't have the spending power of a lot of other teams, he seems to appreciate doing business with them.

It's usually a silly platitude, but the Twins organization has managed to turn kindness and decency into a competitive edge. The Carlos Correa outcome, like Byron Buxton's before him, is an example of how nice guys sometimes finish first. Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports Plenty is made of the disadvantages that a market like the Twin Cities faces in comparison to glamorous coastal destinations like San Francisco and New York. For pro athletes, those locations tend to offer more money, more marketing opportunities, and more prestige, for starters. But there are also distinct advantages to a quaint midwestern locale like Minnesota – ones that might resonate and hold more influence with specific players, and can (as we've seen) sway player pursuits in a meaningful way. Specifically: there's a certain coldness to many of the big markets and all they entail. In the follow-up of Carlos Correa's stunning pivot to sign with the Twins after cutting off negotiations with the Mets, it became clear that the shortstop kept Minnesota on his radar – and ultimately directed his agent Scott Boras to go and get something done – because of how he felt treated by them throughout the past 12 months, and especially through this latest free-agency episode. The Twins could have been compelled to move on at some point and cease making contact, during a process where they were spurned twice for bigger offers in bigger markets. But Correa expressed appreciation for Derek Falvey and Twins reps continually checking in to see how he was doing, as a person – and never wavering in their desire to hammer out a deal with the player, if practical. In a world of big egos and high-stakes decisions, you don't always find this type of genuine care and concern. Correa has said as much. Upon signing, he called the Twins his "extended family." He spoke of how the positive experiences his actual family had in Minneapolis last year influenced his openness to a reunion. He beamed that his son would "grow up Minnesota Nice." Yeah, these are the kinds of things people say when they sign new contracts, I get that. But when you look at the way this all played out, it's difficult to ignore the validity behind these seemingly sappy sentiments. Clearly Correa was very eager and excited to sign in New York. He waited out frustrating negotiations and haggling for weeks. But as he watched the infinitely rich Steve Cohen and his team renege on a deal they'd agreed to, railroading Correa with perceived leverage as they cut the guarantee in half and stipulated annual physicals on the back end ... suddenly the appeal of an organization that's shown him nothing but warmth and good faith looked all the more welcoming by comparison. It was a frustrating process, said Boras. “But in the end, seeing how happy he was and how excited the Twins are, maybe this was the way it was meant to be all along.’’ Looking back one year earlier, we can also see how the "Minnesota Nice" factor played a role in the Twins locking up their other franchise centerpiece to a highly favorable deal. It's easy to forget now, but Byron Buxton's contract talks with the Twins once looked as imperiled as Correa's. In another very realistic scenario, Buxton could've been alongside the shortstop peddling his services as a free agent this offseason. But just ahead of the MLB shutdown last November, Buxton and the Twins reached agreement on an extension that could only be described as extremely team-friendly. There's little doubt he would be in line to make significantly more in guaranteed money this offseason than the $100 million he got from the Twins in an incentive-laden seven-year deal signed back in November of 2021. A $15 million annual base for a player of Buck's caliber is still a little hard to conceive. Make no mistake: Buxton's willingness to sign this contract was an extraordinary showing of loyalty. That level of loyalty is only earned through trust and affinity toward an organization that's done right by him. The Twins deserve credit for keeping that bond intact through a regime change and then some. This is speculation, but I believe another aspect of Minnesota's low-key culture that appeals to Buxton, as an oft-injured player who takes it pretty hard, is the relatively lesser scrutiny and sensationalized media commentary compared to large markets. Not to say there aren't a bunch of obnoxious Twins fans always making their little quips and barbs about Buxton's tendency to get hurt – they annoy the crap out of me – but what he faces here is nothing compared to the onslaught of rancor he'd face in LA or New York for having the gall to be frequently unavailable. I think he recognizes that and it's part of what makes him comfortable in this setting. Buxton gives Joe Mauer a run for his money when it comes to talent/ego ratio – a perfect successor in the soft-spoken superstar lineage. Is it a coincidence neither was eager to leave? Sometimes I get annoyed with how much the Twins franchise embodies the "Minnesota Nice" credo to an almost nauseating degree. From the decades of understated yet ultra-humane leadership under Terry Ryan, to the legend of an "oh-shucks" hometown Hall of Famer, right down to the two friendly chaps shakings hands in their logo, the Twins can be comically on-script for their locale. But then, I wouldn't have it any other way. The Twins don't have many built-in advantages compared to larger markets when it comes to attracting talent and outpacing the field. So they've sought to turn treating people the right way into a differentiator, and – sad as it might be as a general statement – it seems to have become one. Hard to argue with that strategy. View full article