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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Another example tonight of how a mid market team can compete : a league minimum pitcher gets through five in good shape and hands over the reins to a shutdown pen - btw, beating the guy who wants $30MM/year. An entire staff like this will cost a team no more than 1-1.5 Berrios’s. With the continuing trend of longer at bats and shorter pitch counts, more winning teams will have a deep, reliable and relatively cheaper (compared to starters) pen. This will be the Twins strategy over the next two years.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Gant starts with Ober and Ryan (alongside possibly one or both of Dobnak and Jax). Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala stay Up to five free agents or trades - at least three of whom should be considered better than those four. Don’t skimp on the pen. With a starting pitching rotation that will no doubt be made up of a number of youngsters, the pen is the key. No laying up on the pen.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Poor fundamentals was a big part of this season’s downfall. They played like poop in the preseason and it continued right on into the regular season. Regardless if everything else goes right re injuries, decent starts, etc., it’s hard to win consistently if the team plays poor fundamentals baseball. IMO, that’s on Rocco and the staff. And, as the team probably will be getting younger going forward, I’m questioning if Rocco is the right manager to lead this team in 2022 and beyond.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    This is exactly the pitching model the Twins should pursue in 2022 and probably 2023. Namely, a five - six inning start of less than four runs by a controllable, league minimum or there abouts starter followed by a shut down pen (Colome not withstanding). It’s a good strategy for a mid market team in the modern game. We probably have at least four starters on the roster or on the system that fit that description. Who knows, one or two could even develop into a solid 6-7 inning #2 or #3 (ideally Ober and Ryan become that). We might even already have 3-4 relievers that could be part of that pen. The pen is the key.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Trade Kepler and Donaldson in the off-season for as much salary relief as we can get and redeploy the $30MM into a lockdown pen. We’d win a lot more games.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    That Twins’ loss today was as typical as the Vikings’ loss on Sunday. Game in hand, a close call that should never have been needed in the first place goes against us, and the oh so predictable loss (and the as predictable bellyaching about the umps/refs) follows. Sad.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Another great example of why Rocco is probably not the right guy to coach this club in the future. With this team likely getting much younger and filled with more prospects transitioning into true big leaguers, fundamentals trump analytics.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Donaldson is a much bigger millstone around our necks with the multi year deal. At least with Simmons it’s one and done at less than half the annual cost as Donaldson.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more with this post and mikelink45. As a small/mid market team, we need to look for windows. Ours could open again in ‘23. In this era, having a staff with 3-4 cheap SPs who can deliver 5-6 ips and 3 ers or so (i.e. era 4.50-5.00) augmented by a shutdown pen is a good strategy, particularly for lower budget teams. Save the bucks on starters and commit more $ to the pen. By ‘23 we should be able to identify a strong stable of young, league minimum, controllable SPs out of our many options. Maybe one or two develop into legit #2s. But it might not matter if four of them are legit #3-4s. Then bring in a veteran leader (Berrios?) if necessary/desired. But in all cases, have a shutdown pen. Two asides: 1. Resign Buxton. 2. Is Rocco the right guy to lead/develop these young players? Given the horrendous lack of fundamentals displayed by this team this year, it’s a legit question.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Donaldson will tweak a hammy any time now. He’s due. Slot Miranda right in at 3B. Trader Josh in the off season unless we want a $24MM dh. Take what you can get - salary relief would work.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Can’t walk batters with ducks on the pond.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Of course it should be higher. RISP means better pitches. Arraez’s is 16 points higher (.333 vs. .317). Still zero dingers and 25 ribbies for $23MM? That’s a fail. With two years left now. The signing didn’t work out. Its ok - it happens. I liked it when it was announced. It was a good bold move by the FO and ownership. But the FO should consider it now a sunk cost and move on in the off-season. Donaldson is not a part of the future and should not impede the progress of any player who could be.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    A couple of interesting tidbits from last night’s broadcast: 1. Entering the game the Twins have committed 85 errors - most in the majors and responsible for giving up the third most unearned runs. Simmons, our best fielder, is having his worst defender year and Sano, despite being benched at 1B for Kiriloff for much of the year. has committed more errors than our SSs combined. 2. Sano leads the team in bases loaded at bats with 18. He has two hits (a single and a grand slam) and NINE k’s. 3. With RISP, Donaldson is hitting .260 with 0 homers and 25 RBIs. Just a reminder - Donaldson, Sano and Sano will make over $44MM this season.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    That’s actually a really good point. The Twins have committed the most errors this season and have given up the third most unearned runs. (Couple that with our mid 5s era and it’s easy to see why we stunk up the joint this year) Its a completely legitimate question to ask if Rocco is the right guy to drive the ongoing development of a team consisting mostly if young players.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    I like our pipeline - solid but probably not full of projectable all stars. I see three position player starters on this list hopefully by 2023: Lewis (ss), Martin (rf) and Miranda (3b). Coupled with Kiriloff (1B) and Larnach (lf) that could be five starters in the field. Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino are possible bench players. Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt are behind the plate. Sign Buxton, keep Arraez and Polanco and there are 14 solid position players with only two making more than essentially league minimum. There are at least a dozen legitimate potential SPs (including Ober and Jax) on the list - we should be able to get at least four of them to give us 5-6 innings of 3 runs or less 75% of the time (i.e. solid #3-4s). A couple more will probably end up in the pen. We’d clearly have the cash to add at least a solid #2 SP type, a shut down pen, and maybe a FA position player in case of injury or non development. That team could win. The Twins FO are positioning us to pursue the classic mid market strategy to make a run. I’m a fan of our future (assuming we resign Buxton).
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Jax and Ober may not be the second comings, but I’ll take any league minimum starter who can go 5-6 innings and give up 3 or less earned runs three out of every four starts. If we had four guys like that, we’d be in great shape.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    I disagree. Among those 12 names there is potential for several (4-5 at least) to be #2-4s in time. In this day and age a solid #3 gives you 5-6 innings and 3 earned runs. A lot of names on that group can give us that. Give them time to gestate next year. I hope a handful of them though get at least 5–10 starts in the bigs next year.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Nope, I just realize that the Twins are mid market team at best that has probably lost $100MM in cash over the past two seasons. We just can’t expect to sign every FA that you think is the flavour of the day. The key is to build a strong team with a lot of league minimum contract controlled players then add the key FAs that might make a difference. Hopefully more Cruz than Donaldson. Who don’t you like in this lineup? Donaldson (one leg $20+MM) over Miranda? Cave over Martin? Another Simmons at $10MM over Polanco and Arraez playing every day? We have 13 or more potential SP prospects - should we get them some innings next year or sign a few more retread FAs? Are you happy with the pen? Do you disagree that a shut down pen is critical in the modern game of 3-2 counts and 5 inning 90+ pitch starters?
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Step one is Buxton. Step two is move Donaldson - he’s a sunk cost - sure it’s cash if we have to pay all or part of his salary, but that ship has sailed and not worth preventing the growth of other players for the future. So after steps one and two, they could certainly still afford a solid #2 SP in 2023 and a SS. However, a shut down pen is where it’s at in the modern game and I’d be willing to let this team gestate for a year, including seeing how Lewis’ 2022 goes, before prioritizing a SS over the pen. But I definitely see your point.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    I see your point. But if Lewis is indeed targeted to be our SS in 2023, I’d prefer not to spend the cash on an expensive stop gap. No more $10.5MM for Simmons deals for me.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Polanco at SS in 2022 The starting lineup could be: 1. Martin LF 2. Arraez 2B 3. Polanco SS 4. Buxton CF 5. Kiriloff 1B 6. Sano DH 7. Garver C 8. Kepler RF 9. Miranda 3B Bench: Rooker, Jeffers, Gordon, Larnach Move Donaldson. (I could see moving Kepler too and starting Larnach and have Celestino be on the bench). SPs: Maeda plus Jax, Ober, and the rest of the prospects. See who shines. Use the cash to begin building a lock down pen. This team obviously won’t win it all in 2022, but they should be competitive and will set the table for success in 2023 and beyond.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Correction. I meant Miranda - not Urbina. Oops
  23. Nashvilletwin
    The 2023 Twins should be exciting. It all starts with resigning Buxton. Then our core position players will be: Buxton, Kiriloff, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, Polanco, Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt, Urbina, and hopefully Larnach. Maybe Sano and/or Rooker stick around (can either hit 0.250 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs primarily as a DH?). Donaldson and Kepler get moved. Importantly, other than Buxton, this group as a whole is really inexpensive. The staff by then should have at least three, and likely four, league minimum starters, with several others available when injuries occur. The list of possibilities include: Balazovic, SWR, Duran, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Strotman, Colina, Vallimont, Ober, Jax, and Dobnak. That’s 13 names - who am I missing? In the perfect world, we get 5-6 #2-4s out of this group and several competent relievers. After moving Donaldson and Kepler (and possibly Sano), we then spend the ample cash on hand for a shutdown pen, one lead (#1 or #2) veteran starter (dare I suggest Berrios), and maybe a veteran position player. We’d have the money. This is a team which would have a serious 2-3 year window. Let’s play the rookies in 2022 and get ready for a fun ride multi year ride in 2023.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    In 2022 you roll with Maeda and Big Mike plus the youngin’s. All things being equal a staff consisting of 5 solid #2-3s, each averaging about 5-6 innings with an era of about 4 is a winning staff if coupled with a lockdown pen. By 2023, we should have at least 3, maybe 4, starters from among our farm crew who fit that above description. Throw in one additional FA or trade or even Maeda and then spend the money on a lock down pen. You win with a lockdown pen. Get 5-6 innings of 2-4 run ball from your starters and get to the premier pen.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Once you accept the epiphanies that a) Berrios was going to leave and b) this “window” had closed and a new one needs to be developed, then we won the trade deadline. Every deal we did was a positive, and, in the two cases of the Cruz and Berrios deals, a potentially big positive. Of the four deals we didn’t do (Donaldson, Simmons, Rogers, and Pineda), the biggest disappointment was not moving Donaldson. At his price, he is unlikely to prove any value to the team in 2023, let alone 2022. Simmons, meh, he’s gone next year anyway. Rogers, and Pineda (and even Maeda, Kepler, and possibly Sano) still could have reasonable priced option value to the 2023 club and could be moved next year if that’s not the case. I like this deadline for us. Donaldson is really the only huge millstone around our necks re 2023.
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