Nashvilletwin

I guess this is what it took to move JD and have the Yankees take all his salary. Too bad the FO couldn’t have found another deal. Ideally, they would have just moved JD and signed Story (which I’m assuming they are going to do now). Urshela helps Miranda ease in, but, if that transition is successful, there is no reason for Urshela to be on the team - so he’d get moved at the trade deadline. Decimating the catching depth is very confusing. Sanchez is just not very good anymore - certainly not as good as Garver and, if his hitting continues its deterioration, I’d rather have Rortvedt as well. The Yankee sites are saying that Rortvedt will platoon at C - so someone there had enough respect for his game to not only carry him on the roster, but feed him plenty of innings. Again, getting a couple of has beens who carry some cash costs and we hope will rebound or otherwise we will jettison is a pretty high cost to pay to move JD’s salary and give up a couple very solid depth catchers. Signing Story will help, but couldn’t we have just done that anyway? So a year from now (or maybe next week or by the trade deadline) if everything goes as likely will happen, Miranda will be at 3B, Story will be at SS, Urshela and Sanchez will be gone, the Twins will be looking for catching depth, and will some extra cash on hand. Not a disaster, but sure will be a roundabout way to get there.

Good morning TDers. Great to have baseball back! I’ll bat lead off on the roster as the frenzy starts today. First, let’s assume the Twins stick with $130MM to spend. I personally do not think we reach that this year, but let’s start there. On the position player side there are three blanks. Two existing players will be primarily in different slots - AK will be our primary 1B and MS our primary DH. That leaves SS, LF, and one more utility/OF4. So, here is how we fill those three: a) sign Story for $25MM/yr for 4-5 years; b) Miranda becomes a major leaguer; and c) one of Larnach, Rooker, and Celestino breaks spring training with the big club. This adds $26.4MM in payroll leaving $21MM to spend. On the bump, we add Big Mike (or similar) on a one year $8MM deal with a club option for year two and a healthy buyout option. Our fifth starter spot starts with Jax (or Dobnak - the point is they both make the club). But this is more of a placeholder because we will be giving several of our young guys innings this year as the season progresses. We now have $12MM left to spend on two RP spots. In the modern game, it’s so much more about the pen - thus, I’d spend the $, but look for at least one two/three year deal as quality in ‘23-‘24 is going to be more important. If for some reason by the trade deadline we are competitive, keep the lineup intact. If not, based on how the younger players are developing, you can move JD, MK, and MP to save cash to reinvest in ‘23.

Last week I selected Sands as my choice to click on 2022. So I like this article (haha). We will see. Having said that, I’d take four starters on essentially rookie contracts around a 4.00 ERA like Ober last year coupled with a shutdown bullpen any day of the week. That combo wins a lot of games.

Super summary! What is our goal for SS, keeping in mind that it’s the most important defensive position on the field (even more so given our young pitching staff)? If the least acceptable answer is a consistently above average, reliable defensive player with an average bat, then I’d agree the rankings confirm a huge hole at SS within our organization. It’s true, sadly. At the moment, it would appear that it is unlikely that we could fill SS with someone matching that description for at least four years, and even then, the jury hasn’t even begun to deliberate, let alone still be out, on our one true hope, Miller. But by the time he’s ready, we might already be talking about our next window. Sign Story and declare SS victory. We have the $, but if we had to move JD to get it done, so be it. For the 2023-2026 Twins, Story >>> Donaldson - it’s not even close. Once our SS hole has been filled, the promise and depth (not only in terms of talent, but also, importantly, cost and control) of these top 20 prospects really becomes apparent. But the SS hole is gaping and could be our greatest Achilles heel holding us back if not resolved. My choice for who most clicks in 2022 is Cole Sands. My choice for who least clicks is SWR.

This has been an excellent series. Thank you TD staff! What is sadly looking like a shortened season, I’m enthusiastically looking forward to following the progress of our up and comers - including those already in the majors. Regardless of how this season turns out, there is a lot to enjoy and keep me interested. A solid, contending TEAM, especially a mid market team like the Twins, usually is comprised of a mix of talents -speed, arm, range, power, OBP, hustle/heart, etc. - and salary levels. Martin should fit in quite well in that model. A lot now falls on the coaching staff, starting with Rocco and moving down the chain of command, to see that these young players develop to create a contending team as early as next year. My hope is that ownership and the FO are focused on that development in judging the staff’s performance.

You nailed the dream lineup.

Outstanding post. If that is our starting lineup in ‘03 - with a combo of Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt behind the dish - the window should be open and getting better over the next several years. Btw, think about the $’s committed to that lineup; plenty of cash to add additional talent and go all in.

Nothing would make us TDers happier than to see Royce pencilled in as the long-term starting SS beginning sometime in ‘23 (probably the best case scenario). Having said that, if Royce doesn’t stick at SS and Miranda is our everyday 3B, I wouldn’t be disappointed if Royce roamed RF next to Buxton for many years. I get it - if Royce can truly be an average to above average defensive SS with a decent bat to go along with it, then that’s his spot. But if he can’t, and I know I’m in the minority on the TD, I salivate about the combination of speed/range, arm strength, power, OBP, and manageable cost that could come from an outfield of Martin, Buxton and Lewis.

I’ll take a crack at the opening day roster of the 13 position players whom I think the FO and coaching staff would prefer: C1: Garver C2: Jeffers 1B: Kiriloff 2B: Polanco SS: Story 3B: Donaldson LF: Larnach CF: Buxton RF: Kepler DH: Sano Utility 1: Arraez (2B, 3B, LF) Utility 2: Gordon (2B, SS, OF) Utility 3: Celestino (OF) Miranda is the first call up when anyone other than a catcher is injured and could be the everyday 3B if JD is moved by the deadline. Gordon is the most expendable once Miranda is called up and whoever was injured returns to the lineup. Rortvedt gets called up when inevitably Garver or Jeffer goes down. Larnach is the most questionable starter (outside of Story lol).

You are 100% correct. The Twins have the cash to sign Story. And they should. An additional reason being is that they can always move on from JD at the deadline if we are not competitive (which given the state of the starting staff is not unlikely). So it only costs a little over 1/2 year of additional JD in the worst case. The additional advantage is that Miranda can be eased in as desired. Either give him ABs at AAA and wait his turn. Or, break camp with him in the utility role along with Arraez and Gordon and seeing ABs mostly in the infield but some in the outfield maybe as well. If JD is moved, then Miranda hasn’t just been thrown in the fire. This is probably the best case scenario. I just don’t feel it is going to happen.

Agree as well 100%. It’s just too bad that, if we are likely to move on from JD by the deadline, we won’t bite the bullet now and replace his cash outlay with Story. With Miranda manning 3B, solve SS for at least four years and eliminate the pressure to move Polanco to across the diamond. If at some point either Lewis or Miller look like everyday SSs, we deal with that then.

I think you are spot on TopGunn. JD stays this season. Miranda (and Arraez) gets lots of ABs playing left with Larnach and spelling JD at 3B. For nearly $25MM/yr I’d still prefer Story at SS than JD at 3B, but - sadly - it’s unlikely that scenario comes to fruition. Also, its unlikely the Twins add Story without moving JD (we can dream - theoretically it’s possible). As you point out, this still leaves a gaping hole at SS. Having said that, if the Twins are not competitive by the deadline, JD gets moved and hopefully some combo of Martin, Celestino and Larnach split left and Miranda is full time at 3B with Arraez and Gordon in utility roles. Depending on how Martin, Larnach, Celestino and/or Lewis are developing, Max could be moved too at the deadline. Boy, it’s just so much easier for the Twins to deal with a hole at 3B than it is at SS. Miranda (with Arraez in the backup role) at 3B with Story at SS and Polanco remaining at 2B is just a stronger, and better for the future, lineup.

Here’s hoping Miranda is our regular third basemen for at least the next six years. If he were joined in the infield by Story, Polanco, and Kiriloff for at least the next four of those, the Twins starting infield would probably stack up well against any team in the league both offensively and defensively. Miranda is an incredibly important piece to help open our next window as early as next season. I hope we give him the innings and ABs to develop quickly this season at the major league level.

Couldn’t agree more. Give us two-three solid #2-3 starter types (and Balazovic, Ryan, Ober and a few others could project as such), two-three solid #3-4 starter types and two-three dependable late inning reliever types out of the cadre of young, cheap, controllable approaching arms we have and we’d be in really, really good shape (in terms of both performance and committed cash). That means finding six-nine dependable pitchers (with four starters) out of the pitchers in our top twenty prospects and Ober, Dobnak and Jax on whom we can rely from ‘23-‘26. It’s doable and appears to be the plan of the FO.

Ok so it may or may not cost a few bucks more either for Story and/or to move JD. I agree that signing Story likely means a JD trade - however, not because the Pohlads are cheap, but because the owners and FO know that ‘22 is most likely a repositioning year given our projected starting staff. The real issue is that none of Lewis, Martin or Miranda may actually be a major league shortstop - let alone a major leaguer (although I expect all three to be solid MLers). Miranda and Martin aren’t even really in the SS discussion. If Lewis does pan out at SS then you have the proverbial rich man’s problem. The more likely scenario is that in ‘23 all three of these prospects are starting at other positions - 3B (Miranda) and corner OF on either side of Buxton (Martin and Lewis) with Story at SS, Polanco at 2B and Kiriloff at 1B. Lewis is probably the biggest risk at this point to be anywhere in the lineup in ‘23, let alone SS. Sign Story and get Miller ready over the next four years as the heir apparent at SS.

Sign Story and declare victory at SS for the foreseeable future. 4-6 years, $25MM/year or thereabouts. If we need to move JD - whose value, btw, just went up with universal DH - either this off-season or by the trade deadline to get team spending on budget or preserve capital for FA pitching, we should do it. Miranda/Story > JD/whomever is in the organization for the next several years. Story, Polanco and Buxton up the middle is an elite major league lineup. The point being if we had to make a choice for a $25MM/yr left side of the diamond infielder, Story is a much better investment than JD.

1. I love the Twins - just want to say that upfront. 2. The Twins are not likely trading any top prospects for starting pitching this offseason. Just don’t see it - the FO wants to see what it has. 3. Our rotation is in a world of hurt. Lots of young guys - no real proven reliables. Some things around the edges (i.e. sign Big Mike) might get done, but this is not the year we go all in. 4. Don’t fret - we have three things working on our favor. A. We have a great core of starters and relievers on the way. B. Sadly, this likely is going to be a short season - so we won’t need as many innings. C. Our pen should be solid. Oh, and Maeda - who is reliable - should be back in 2023. 5. So, let’s be patient, see how 2022 rolls out, and enjoy following our young developing talent. The FO is positioning this team - in terms of player development and contracts/cash so that 2023 and beyond could be something special.

Sign Story. Then Arraez and Miranda can be your utility players.

Easy - sign Story and declare victory.

I wouldn’t sleep on Varland and Sands either. Plus Dobnak and Jax could be serviceable major leaguers too. So that’s 13 pitchers - if just two become regular #2-3 type starters and two/three are consistent #4 types, our Twins will have a solid AND very cheap/controllable starting staff for several years. There will be plenty of opportunities for Duran to an ultra effective pen piece if that’s ultimately his best role. Re Lewis, yes, an everyday SS would be huge. However, I’d be more than happy if he turned out to be an anchor corner OF along with Martin either side of Buxton.

Sano is ecstatic about the NL DH. He’s essentially on a one year prove it deal. This is a huge year for his future prospects - he is highly motivated. If he is ever going to have a big year, this is it. Don’t see the Twins moving him. Re JD, the new rule definitely increases his trade value. We could get more in players and/or salary relief. All things being equal, I’d prefer a longer term solution of Story and Miranda at SS and 3B than a “take your pick of the other options within the organization none of which look good” and Donaldson. So, if the payroll is important this year, trade JD and sign Story - it will cost about the same.

Ok, so sign Story and we can transition to Miller - if and when that becomes realistic in 3-4 years. The point being that Cody nailed the critical point; namely, we have been historically weak with a revolving door strategy at the diamond’s most important position. So solve our SS issue and have a rich person’s problem if Noah (or any of the others) actually pan out.

The issue we will have is innings. Lots of good young arms not ready to be year long starters. Therefore, look for a number of our prospects to see the big league mound this year.

Love Max and would like nothing more than to see him get his mojo back. Having said that, if two or more of the following circumstances are in place before the deadline: 1. he doesn’t perform; 2. at least two of Larnach, Celestino, Martin and Lewis look solid; and 3. the Twins are not contending; then the sad fact is that the team will look to move Max by the deadline.

Well, if you had your druthers for the next two years, which infield would you rather have: A. Kiriloff, Polanco, Story, Miranda and Arraez and Gordon in utility roles; or, B. Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson and Miranda and Gordon in the utility roles. It should cost about the same as Story is projected at $25mm/year or so - similar to Donaldson. Personally, if the cold hard truth is that neither Lewis nor Martin is not going to be our SS of the future, I’d choose A. Why? Emphasize strength up the middle, keep Polanco in his natural position, give Miranda the ABs and innings he needs, replace one declining asset with one declining less, and have a core infield that could stay in place for an additional two or so years.