Nashvilletwin

Along with Buxton in center, some combo of Martin, Lewis, Larnach, Celistino, and Wallner in the corner and backup outfield positions ideally in 2023. Cheap, interchangeable, mix of power, speed, OBP, and fielding strength - and at least two decent CF backups in Lewis and Celestino (and possibly Martin) when needed. Gravy would be that they all work out, Lewis is the everyday SS, and we get an outstanding RP for Kepler.

I couldn’t agree more with the post’s supposition that JD is better than many of us couch GMs think he is. Super points made in the post. Thank you. Having said that, which of these statements, considering objectively and dispassionately, do we disagree with: 1. JD is a really, really good baseball player, better than people think, and FOs across the league realize that. 2. The universal DH would make JD more attractive to a larger number of teams. 3. JD, at this point in his career, is a likely (possibly accelerating) descending asset as opposed to an ascending asset. 4. The Twins window in 2022 is more closed than open (see the projected starting staff and the FOs aggressive effort to address it). 5. JD is blocking our most MLB ready talent who’s development through innings and ABs is critical to reopening our window as early as 2023. 6. The $45MM or so we owe him over the next two years could be better applied to the talent we need to accumulate to better compete when our new window reopens. 7. His salary is too high to justify being a full time DH and occasional corner IFer. If the answer is that we realistically can’t disagree with any of these, then the answer is to sell high, trade JD and build for the future. IMHO, I’d move him now off of his excellent second half and his good health; however, I’d understand if we rolled the dice a bit based on how the season starts and his performance, and then reassessed at the trade deadline,

Two players could make all the difference - like I said you need to play the games. But any realistic look up and down the Twins roster, and this is coming from an all-time Twins homer, suggests that a more serious rebuild is needed: Our best player (BB)can’t stay on the field - but is incredible when he does. Our second best player (JP) is really, really good. Our third best player (JD) had a strong second half but his first half, when we really needed it, was simply awful and he is likely a declining, not ascending player. And he is blocking our best prospect. Our RF (MK) can Field but can’t hit. Our 1B (Kiriloff) is essentially a rookie coming off an injury. Our DH (MS) blows hot and cold, but mostly cold. We are solid at catcher, but particularly because of depth, not individual greatness. We really don’t have a regular everyday SS or LF, but I love LA so maybe he can slot in in LF. Our starting staff, as currently comprised or, should I say envisioned, may be on paper one of the league’s worst. Our relief corp looks solid after last year’s second half, but our most reliable reliever, and the leader of the pen, is coming off an injury. So could two players really help this lineup - you betcha. But there are more than two holes. This is why I think the FO is looking to build a solid young core in the next year or two and then spend on the FA or two who could get us over the hump. As per Olney, I couldn’t care less about his opinions. I was only referring to the post in which his rankings were utilized to spur discussion about the Twin’s lineup. I’m optimistic about the Twin’s future if the deep stable of developing talent can continue to improve and I’m willing to use that as my benchmark this season if need be.

Not to many, including myself, would disagree with your sentiments toward Olney. He doesn’t know. So I’m with you on that 100%. However, as I recall, the post was about player rankings. And, based on last year’s performances, it’s hard to argue our beloved Twins have a lot, if any, players among the top ten at their positions throughout the league (although when BB is playing I think he certainly qualifies). This team as currently composed and based on recent levels of play would not be considered among the teams expected to vie for a championship. I wish I were wrong and one never knows - we have to play the games. I’m actually quite bullish on how strongly this team can compete this season. But don’t take my word on this characterization. Look at the actions of the FO. If the FO truly thought we had the positional player strength to be considered near the top of the contenders, they probably would have been more active earlier in the FA market, particularly with the pitching staff. We will be back among the contenders hopefully very soon and for a sustainable period of time as well. That goal is what the actions of the FO and ownership are now all about: deep development depth in the field and on the mound, good young controllable (i.e. inexpensive) players, and more aggressive FA activity (see Donaldson) when the window is opening.

100% agree. The post last week about Buster’s player rankings should have confirmed to us all that we are not one or two players away. The FO’s approach to the pitching staff confirms that the FO understands that. Therefore, one of the keys this year is to develop those six position players with instruction and innings. I hope the FO and the coaching staff is up to the job. Ideally most of those six (and/or Wallner, Sabato, and Palacio too) comprise the core of a solid multi year window starting in ‘23 alongside Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, and a combo of Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt. Lewis may or may not be our SS of the future. But if our outfield for 3-4 years starting in ‘23 ended up being Martin, Buxton and Lewis with Larnach, Celestino and/or Wallner as the reserves, we could be very happy. I hope we win every game this year, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how this group of prospects develop.

Agree with the above comments - great series and great summary. Your work Seth is incredibly helpful and timely given how the FO appears to be looking at the next couple of years. Thank you! I’m wondering if the TD could keep a link of this summary in a quickly noticeable and accessed spot on the front page - particularly if the individual player links provided updated performance metrics? That way it would be easier to track location, development and performance throughout the year.

Seth, I like your order of 1-3, but it really doesn’t matter. All three should be starting for the Twins in ‘23. What is most exciting is that a real core of highly talented, yet low cost controllable core of players is on the near term horizon. It is very possible that Polanco and Buxton are the only true vets on the position player roster as early as ‘23. JD, Max, Sano and possibly Garver all could be moved in the next 12-18 months. Think about the cash that would be available to get one or two key FAs to make a good multi year run if desired or lock up some of our key younger talent with extensions SS is still the one position that is concerning. Defense up the middle is so important and outstanding play at SS is often highly correlated with WS appearances. It doesn’t seem that we confidently have a true solution at SS for the ‘23-24 timetable quite yet. Lots of good possibilities, but none that seem as sure as the other positions in the field. With this core of young talent both in the field and on the bump, the most important roles for this team/franchise are coaching related. I hope Rocco and his team are actually the right guys to see these players max out their potential once they get to the big leagues. With so many down years last season, the jury should still be out on that.

I may be in the minority, but what took so long?

Thanks Nick. Good list. I’m in on your assessments. If I I had one on which to disagree, it would be Max. Above average (even well above) corner outfield play is not sufficient without a stronger bat in today’s MLB. Max had a tough year in ‘21 with falling performances across the key statistical categories. In addition, his ability to hit lefties seems to have deteriorated quite a bit. We are all hoping Max rebounds in ‘22; however, if not, your value assessment will likely be tested by the deadline.

Oh, also btw for what it’s worth, I read a lot of comments on the TD about how valuable JD is and a lot of comments about how he won’t have any trade demand. They seem incongruent. Could JD truly be worth so much only to the Twins and no other team? I don’t think so. Not in 2022. JD is a really, really good baseball player who will be more valuable to a team looking for that FA pickup to get over the hump (especially with the universal DH) than he will be to the Twins at his price and position over the next two years. I think he’s good and can be moved - and for more value ($ adjusted) than LA.

Are these Twins realistically positioned to compete in 2022 for a WS as built? We’d all like to think so, but c’mon be truthful. If not, are these Twins only a player or two away from being in that position? Again, anything is possible, but, with how we appear to be rebuilding our staff, be realistic. If not, should we trade declining assets or improving assets as we look to build a team to get into that position in 2023 and beyond? Also, as a mid market team, should we trade high priced declining assets or low priced improving assets - especially if the former at this point in time should have stronger trade demand? The realistic, rational answers are no, no, declining and high priced. So the person who should be traded is JD and we keep LA unless we know his knees make him a declining asset (which I do not believe is true) in which case you trade them both. JD was brought in (btw in a smart, bold move IMHO), to be the key FA cog in getting us playoff victories. That’s what midmarket teams with good owners (like our beloved Twins) do when the FO feels a solid window exists. And the opposite is true as well - they shed the expensive declining assets who will not be around when the next window is open in order to save the cash for a new cog FA and provide opportunity to up and coming players whom they feel may be part of that new window. JD should be moved - preferably during the off-season (but certainly before the trade deadline) after the universal DH is approved and off of his strong 2021 second half and before his inevitable drop off becomes more apparent. LA and Miranda platoon at 3rd base - both of them can still be considered to be likely important pieces of a new window opening as early as 2023, while JD cannot. Btw, I think the data indicate that defensively there really isn’t much difference between LA and JD at this point (i.e., that JD is a top defensive 3B is more of a myth now), but I could be wrong about that. And depending on how Larnach, Lewis, Martin, Celestine, and Wallner develop, Max may be next if he doesn’t up his game.

Dobnak perhaps might be a sleeper, but I’m already counting on the other two to be important contributors in 2022.

Love this series. Thank you. I will take the bait on Wallner and CES. Along with Severino, Palacios and possibly Cavaco, plus our top 10, I’d say that gives us 15 (18 if Celestino, Larnach and Rortvedt don’t qualify for the top 10 list) legit looking prospects at this point in time. I’m sure a few more will develop and a few will fall by the wayside. Not a bad list, but I agree with an above poster that the pitching list seems a bit more robust.

In ‘22, some combination of Kepler, Gordon and Celestino are our backup CFers, with Kepler possibly moved before the deadline. In ‘23 and hopefully for several additional years - provided our prospects develop and depending what we do at SS - Martin, Lewis and Celestino are the primary backups for Buxton. If those three develop nicely, we have no issues re a satisfactory Buxton replacement.

I don’t know how that cow thing got in there. Apologies.

All the options are in play. It’s probably a pretty fluid situation with lots of factors, including: universal DH, team pre-deadline competitiveness, other DH options (think JD, Rooker, and maybe some MK), prospect development (Sabato in particular), other position player trade developments (JD and MK) trade demand, payroll considerations, and, of course, Sano’s performance. Having said that, IMO I think it is highly unlikely any trade gets done in the off-season. In 2022, Sano is going to get his chance and likely starts out as our primary DH while playing some backup 1B. The goal is to hit 0.250, 35 dingers, 0.850+ OPS, and be a good team presence. If he exceeds that, Miguel either has his option picked up and is part of the new window or he earns a sweet new contract most likely somewhere else. If he underperforms, he will be on his way and it’s unclear what he is able to garner as an almost purely DH FA. The good news is that Miguel has a lot to play for this year! There is so much in his hands and all indications are that he is going to get his chance. I’m cheering hard for him.

Unless the Twins are making a serious run at it at the trade deadline, I don’t think the FO will trade anyone who might be an important cog in a new multi year window they think will open in 2023. That includes Arraez IMHO. If Miranda and the younger outfield assets (Martin, Larnach, Celestino and, yes, Lewis (although we all hope he can be a SS)) are developing nicely, then JD and MK will be the most likely players to be moved before the deadline.

Great article - fun topic. My one adds could be batting eighth and playing catcher Robert Dinero playing Bruce Pearson or joining the pitching staff Michael Moriarty as Henry Wiggen - both in Bang the Drum Slowly. That is an awesome baseball movie. Makes me cry every time.

RpR, I agree with that. Happy New Year.

Yeah, like Kepler and Arraez or Gordon or Rooker are going to be the answer in the corner OF positions. Or should we use our precious trade or FA capital on the corner OF when there are so many needs on the mound - both SPs and RPs - let alone at SS? LOL. We have two legit top OF prospects in Martin and Lewis who should debut late in ‘22. The goal should be to develop them into legit major leaguers. Larnach and Celestino should be solid 4th OFs at worst.

With Kiriloff at 1B, our projected starting OF in 2023 is either: Martin LF, Buxton CF, Lewis RF with Larnach and/or Celistino in the 4th/5th OF slot, and we acquire in some way a starting SS; or, Martin LF, Buxton CF, Larnach RF with Celistino as the 4th OF. Lewis is the starting SS (as we all hope but has yet to be proven). Either way we have a young OF with all the players under long term control and all but Buxton making essentially league minimum. We have a great mix of power, OBA, lefty/righty, speed, arm strength and CF redundancy (in spades with Martin, Lewis and Celistino). I truly think this is the vision of the FO. Martin stays and Kepler gets moved by the deadline depending on progress by the young guys.

Rookie of the year 2023.

Out of the gate in ‘22, Kepler, Larnach, Fisher, Celistino, Rooker, Arraez, yadda yadda, yadda, are the most likely to see time in the corner OF spots. Ultimately, I think you are missing the two most likely to bracket Buxton - Martin and Lewis (and I’m not talking about that famous comedy duo). Although we all hope Royce can play SS, neither likely projects as a plus fielder at that position. With their speed and arms, both, however, probably do as corner outfielders (as well as backup CFs for Buxton when needed) and should have the desired combination of power and OBA at the plate as well. It could be in ‘23 (and hopefully for an additional several years after that) we see a starting outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis with some combo of Larnach, Wallner and Celestino in the important platoon roles. That could be one great outfield.

With a FO seemingly content to see how the starter prospects develop this year and apparently focused on building a young, cost controlled position player core which an eye on a multiple year “open window” starting in 2023, I would think the top two possible players to be moved either in the offseason or before the deadline are Donaldson and Kepler. If we could, I’d move JD in the off-season and utilize the cash to sign Story. Miranda and Arraez man 3rd as Miranda develops into the ‘23 everyday starter. Kepler gets moved at the deadline based on how Lewis, Martin and Larnach are developing (ideally those three comprise your OF alongside Buxton starting in ‘23). This leaves Buxton, Story, Sano (DH) and Polanco (2B) as essentially our only relatively high priced players - freeing up capital to spend if desired next offseason.

Nick, you are spot on: the Twins are not only going to see what they have this year among their burgeoning staff options, but also are not necessarily writing off the year. If our pen is strong, there is no reason we can’t compete. A couple of points: 1. Of the 13 possibilities (I include Jax), there is a high likelihood that most, if not all of them, barring injury or unexpected poor development/performance, get a shot in the majors this year. 2. The MO of this FO and coaching staff is all about 4-6 inning, two + times thru the order starters anyway. None of them need to be a shutdown, innings eater next year (or even further into the future for that matter, but it would be nice if one or two became that eventually). 3. The goal should be that by ‘23 we see hopefully at least 3-4 of them develop into legitimate #2-4 starters. The beauty of that is they would all be on LEAGUE MINIMUM! Think about that for a second. We take 13 legitimate prospects and turn them into 4 legitimate starters under team control for multiple years at a total sum of under $10MM/year. That is an incredibly strong place to be as a mid market team. 4. The FO then uses the cash saved to build a killer pen and, if desired, add a more true #1 and/or a key position player or two to fill a hole. Building a killer pen is cheaper, and way less risky, than signing multiple FA starters on longer term deals. I’ve written this before on the TD and I’ll write it again: I hope the Twins win as many games as possible in ‘22, but this organization (with the resigning of Buxton, the core young positional talent both up and on the way, this cadre of emerging starters/pitchers, and the low cost of the core coupled with an owner willing to spend when the window is open) has a unique chance next year to position the team for several successful, fun, exciting years. I’m more than willing to be patient in ‘22 with that ultimate goal in mind if need be.