kab21

He is currently an on the fence protected/unprotected rule 5 pick. That is not far from failed imo. He also close to 500 IP of <6 K/9 on his resume. This really isn't looking good right now.

The elite tier doesn't end with Kershaw. I would definitely put Darvish in that tier regardless of his WAR not quite hitting 5 WAR. Tanaka would be also but he has resigned. Arrieta was in that tier isn't going forward. Cobb and Lynn most definitely aren't though. The Twins shouldn't pay them like they are near elite (80+M) but they should sign either for 50ish unless they have a bigger trade planned (like for Cole or better).

I think the original posts analysis is a little flawed but I will return to the same point as him. He has a line drawn at 4/48 and is classifying everything above this as a big contract and inferring a level of near elite-ness by contract value. In reality the Garza's, Jimenez's, Chen's and many others are very similar to Ervin and Nolasco except that they got the high range of the incredibly average pitchers. The key here which returns to the 4/48 bargain bin is that the Twins shouldn't get into a bidding war for average pitchers and pay for them near the top of that range. They should focus on signing pitchers near the bottom of this range (like Cobb's predicted 4/48 - likely higher imo). FWIW - I would consider this tier of pitchers starting at 30-40M (40+M now) and going up to 80+M (maybe 100M now). Samardzija and Sanchez are right on the border of these two tiers. Sanchez it should be noted has had numerous injuries and this is something that happens to pitchers. Samardzija will likely end up with surplus value Out of the true big contract pitchers I see a fair amount of value. 4 contracts yielded near elite pitchers (Greinkex2 - Scherzer - Tanaka) and one is a complete bust (Zimmerman). Lester will probably be just below the 20 WAR value that I would expect from his contract. Cueto and Price are big concerns due to injury but that is the ongoing story with investing in pitching. Some of them get injured. If you always pass due to this then you won't ever have any pitching (unless you get lucky with Arrieta type waiver claims/minor trades).

Maybe yes - Maybe no The hindsight argument that you are applying changes a lot if he doesn't get injured and pitches a solid 3.75-4.00 ERA the next 2 seasons. He would have been an outstanding value if he had merely been very good. Teams should be doing extensions with players 2 years before they become FA's and that is exactly when they locked him up. He got hurt and that sucks A LOT.

But he wasn't. This is overvaluing single season pitching WAR. He had a lucky HR rate and this value that keeps getting referenced was 2.5x his previous best (or best since). He was very good but very few people are putting him amongst the elite arms in the majors.

The CBA changed so it is the 3rd pick that the Twins get in the draft so 2nd or 3rd round. This shouldn't be a factor at all if they want him.

Great stuff. Looks like the Twins would have to negotiate with the insurance company to reduce the amount that they would pay if they cut him. But do the Twins definitely have an insurance policy on Hughes? What portion of his contract?

He is definitely still getting paid but what clause in the insurance policy says that they can't cut a player for clear medical reasons and still collect insurance money?

Is this true if they cut him specifically for medical reasons?

Cobb/Nicasio would get a B grade for an offseason. Controlling risk management is fairly strong vs going after Tanaka/Arrieta/Darvish but the upside is pretty limited. If the Twins plan on going anywhere in the playoffs then they need to pull off a big trade or get lucky with a pitching prospect significantly exceeding expectations. But really I couldn't complain with the dollars spent although this seems like the safe route that the Ryan RO would have taken.

Most teams don't have 3 new starters and a new 6th man to sort out. And player's that naturally don't fit well to excel. Almost all of the player's want to be ball dominant but there is only one ball. The good news is that they are starting the season with W's while sorting this out. Bjelica you are such a tease. I have had such optimism for your skillset (not much defense though) since you came over but there have been so many injuries or slumps. KAT is a 7 footer that plays like a wing on offense AND defense.

I really wish it were possible to trade Dozier for the value that he brings to the team. The reality is that 2B became deep in the last year or two and a Dozier trade would almost certainly bring back a prospect that probably wouldn't help the Twins until 2019.

This wasn't the question that I asked though. Doesn't Burdi (this example) have to be on the active roster (and accruing service time) to be placed on the 60 day DL at any point (for example April 2018)? I think there have been minor leaguers that have been out for the season but weren't able to be placed on the 60 day DL but perhaps they were good prospects in AA that hadn't been put on the 40 man yet.

Can a player that hasn't been called up to the 25 man roster be put on the 60 day DL? I didn't think so but I am not sure.

Cole is just a name for a certain level of pitcher. I think you mean Adrianza and not find a guy like Adrianza right?

If we added Gerrit Cole and only subtracted Polanco from the MLB roster then I could live with Adrianza at SS for a year with Escobar playing there plenty. Any FA option is either going to be overpriced (more than pitchers) or just as mediocre.

So far they are winning ballgames that they would have lost last year. They don't look great doing it but I will certainly take these wins when things aren't clicking. This team has some crazy talent though. If the offense really starts clicking and they play average offense they could be a contender for 2nd best. I only say contender. Right now they are just trying to get into the top 10.

I will definitely trade Polanco (in a package) if that is what is needed to land a very good starter. I would rather trade Gordon because I think his value is higher and I think he is farther away than some think. He is a very good prospect but I think he is also overrated (especially on this board). But the Twins definitely have a surplus of MI's and that is a shocking development after years of playing complete mediocrity in the MI.

Very few teams have #5 starters that help them beat good teams. Gibson is a placeholder at the back of the rotation that can be replaced by any of the talented AAA pitchers (or May) next season if they take the spot from him. And he will be back on a cheap 1 year arb contract. I don't have high expectations of Gibson either though. I doubt teams aren't aware that Santana is 35 (opening day) and has some scary stats. But packages that include aging starters that acquire better MLB pitchers are very rare. The only thing that the Santana trade would accomplish is bringing in a package containing another top 100 prospect. That isn't terribly exciting for next season.

I don't see this as an issue tbh. I think it is another example of why the Twins should go strong after one very good starter and then let Mejia and Gibson (cheap one year arb contract) try to hold off the AAA talent and May. The Twins actually have many very good options that should be up at some point next season. I think the bigger factor as to what his role will next season is when he is given the green light to pitch w/o limitations. There might be a few pitchers that successfully come back in 12 months or less but I think the norm for being back at full strength is still 15+ months. If May is coming back mid-season then you have time to assess the current MLB needs at that point and plan his rehab around that role. As a default plan on him rehabbing as a starter though since it is easier to switch later on that way.

the problem isn't that the Wolves have flawed pieces but that these pieces don't together at all yet (you do allude to this). Almost every wing and PG creates his own offense. The good news is that the Wolves do have multiple options that can knock down 3's but they need to start moving the ball around to get those shots instead of going one on one all the time. And yes that was exactly the issue with Rubio. He creates on offense even if he doesn't score and reduces the wings to spot up shooters. Great if you have Kyle Korver.

I thought of you when I made that comment. Maybe I am 2nd. Teague was like a lateral step with different issues but not as bad as this thread is making him out as. The Wolves do need to figure out how to play together though. The pieces don't fit well yet.

I disagree with both of the bolded parts of the parts of the article. Robbie performed just as anyone would have expected unless they base their projections on a 99 game sample size. He was a player brought in on waivers (or similar) and had one full minor league season with a .800+ OPS. I still don't know why people thought he was going to .800+ OPS last year. I don't think it is as easy you think to find a .741 OPS with an upgraded glove as a 4th OF. Robbie (and his .741 OPS) ranked about 150th in the entire majors for OPS with 400+ PA. And 6th on the Twins. The key to improving (more like maintaining) the Twins defense will be whether or not they choose to force Vargas onto the roster. Doing that requires Sano to play more 3B and/or Grossman to play more OF. If they don't do that then Granite is the logical last hitter to make the team and it is less likely than both of Grossman and Sano are in the lineup defensively. I do really like Vargas though.Tough fit on the roster though with Grossman also needing DH AB's and Sano likely getting plenty of DH days.

But if you based your opinion of him on Internet comments you would think he was one of the worst ever. Rubio isn't better than the 10th best (probably) and Teague probably isn't worse than the 15th.

I think your 1st and 2nd paragraphs are related. Teague might look awful because the fall off from a good PG happens fast. After look at all of the negative comments about Rubio over the years. Teague and Rubio are probably average PG and there are some teams which have some truly awful PG's that are starting.