kab21

Except Stanton signed his deal at age 26 and is 28 right now. Pujols was 32 when he signed his contract. Tex 29 Mauer 28 (but those are catcher years) Ellsbury 31 Hamilton 32 Howard 33 ARod 33 I think very few of these are comparisons for or against Stanton due to age and also sustained performance level prior to the massive contract. Imo anyone making an argument against getting Stanton is crazy. He is an elite player. A no doubter although I guess some will debate that. If the Twins could get him without giving up Sano or Berrios then sign me up. Of course there are concerns like the injury history (fastballs to the face) and 10 more years of guaranteed money with an opt out.

I think Otani's contract is the same as any prospect that comes up through the minors. He will make the MLB minimum for 3 years and then go to arbitration. Like others have said the CBA was updated after the Cespedes contracts that granted early FA but I don't know the specific details.

Rubio's revenge didn't happen this time as he went 1-7 but the Jazz didn't play any defense with Gobert out. The Wolves shot 50% from the field and from 3 for the game. Hopefully they can keep that up.

But how many teams are going to be willing to bench their DH or go with a rotating DH? Most of the high payroll teams already have someone in this spot or could possibly be going after someone like JD Martinez or Carlos Santana. I think this is where the Twins are in a unique position with Sano rotating in at DH and Grossman being solid but not great. I think they could offer Otani 60-80 games at DH no problems. Here is another question - Do you let him hit on days he pitches? I know they do this in the NL all the time but...

the problem isn't he doesn't miss bats. A non strikeout pitcher would be undervalued in the trade market and could be a decent value trade. The problem is that the Twins don't need depth type pitchers that are fairly priced (Nova = 8.5M). The Twins actually have a lot of guys like Gibson (cheap one year arb contract), Mejia and 3-4 prospects that provide pretty good depth. The Twins desperately need a better than average pitcher to slot in front of Berrios and Santana. Neither of these (possibly Berrios someday) are leading a good postseason staff. Must Aim Higher than Nova and concentrate the prospects and cash (8.5M isn't cheap) on a better pitcher.

Easy pass if the price is two top 100 prospects like some suggest. I could see doing something like this (at a much lower price) at the middle/end of the offseason if the Twins can acquire a top starter through FA (unlikely) but that is where I focus any trade chips.

I go for option A and B and mostly target starting pitching. If things work out and they add two of Darvish/Otani/Cole/Cobb/Lynn/Metstrade/Archer/etc then that is a great thing. Even Arrieta becomes interesting if the # of years drops to 3 or fewer. I disagree with jorgens on Cobb/Lynn. The Twins should only avoid either of them if the deal ends up in the 60-90M range. If you shop in that tier of FA SP then it is fair value to sign them in the 40-50M range. Once you start paying 60+M for a similar pitcher then things look really ugly. In addition to that I look for 1-2 moderately priced bullpen arms even if they are only at the Kintzler level. I don't spend big money here but expect that the bullpen gets better due to Option A and/or B pitching deeper into games. I also look for a bat with the right skillset (can play a defensive position) but hits well enough to DH. This is the last priority and isn't completely necessary.

I will give you credit for finding something halfway plausible. Even then though MLB for MLB trades are really rare and I can't see the Mets trading for 2 players a year from FA (Ervin does have an option). I could see them looking for some younger MLB players like Polanco though.

This was exactly what I was talking about when I mentioned win games that you are supposed to win (bad teams). Ugh...

If Sano was going to play 150 games at 3B then I would definitely like to get Carlos Santana. I have no confidence about Sano playing every day at 3B though so I don't think the Twins can add a full time DH unless that player can also play elsewhere (not 1B). Todd Frazier is a player that makes sense in some role of rotating at DH and 3B. The goal isn't to replace Escobar since his versatility makes him useful everywhere. Frazier is a much better defender at 3B and adds a very good RH'd bat to the lineup and he can play a defensive position (very well) unlike Vargas (limited to 1B) or Grossman (poor in the OF). I am all for signing Frazier as long as the signing doesn't significantly impact any pitching moves.

I pitched this earlier as a reason why the Twins have something that other teams can't offer. They already have a rotating DH role where Sano is going to play 50+ games at DH. Otani can easily get 60+ games at DH with Grossman/Garver/Escobar getting the final 50 games. It isn't a full time DH role but if he performs then he can hit more.

I would trade any of our prospects if it enabled the Twins to sign Otani.

Because they can't agree (written or oral/undisclosed) to a contract beyond the original signing bonus.

They aren't kicking the can down road, they are saying that bad stuff happens to people and we can't prevent all of the bad stuff from happening so why bother improving conditions.

This was looking good in the first half. So far this team has mostly won games that it was supposed to win (bad teams) and done well against tougher teams (average teams) and lost to the best teams (SAS and GSW so far). I am not sure what to make of OKC so far. Everybody thought that they would have really bad chemistry and depth problems but this is a really bad start. I guess this is the curse of Carmelo.

Stats that use FIP don't adjust for park effect. Your analysis pretty clearly shows that he is no doubt a top 30 pitcher and probably a top 15 pitcher. You get a high five for saying that he was a marginally better version of Ervin Santana at the top end of the third tier of pitching. You later conceded. I also find the ace arguments rather silly but I highly doubt that people can name 20 better starting pitchers. If people are restricting ace to the top 5-8 no doubters then fine but Yu is a great pitcher.

Every pitcher has a red flag. Every single one. Nobody is ignoring it.

Should we consider it ironic that the group that is pissed about kneeling during the national anthem is also trying to justify blocking all attempts at gun legislation (background checks, limits on types of guns, etc...) because the 2nd amendment allows them to stand up against tyrannical governments (the USA)? Never mind the defense (and flag waving) of the Confederacy which actually gave the middle finger to the USA.

Of course TJ is a pretty big injury. Has anyone said that it isn't? The important part that should be looked at is that he has pitched nearly 300 IP of 11+ K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 baseball since the injury. Being injured for 3 seasons is a meaningless criticism since that is what happens if someone goes the rest and rehab route and then gets TJ the next spring. And we are at a point where TJ isn't an unusual thing to recover from (not 100%) but we have a pretty good 300 IP sample that says he has recovered. I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment that he is a risk to sign but I do disagree with your analysis since you have put up some conveniently placed goalposts that he just misses. His performance level is certainly at an ace level. He just happened to have TJ that wiped out 1 full season and 2 partial seasons.

It is one injury. He went the rest and rehab route and then later had TJ. One injury.

I am not sure if anyone realized this but we actually have an example of a good guy with a gun stopping this massacre. Just 26 dead. No doubt the man is a hero but something needs to be done about this issue so that 'good guys with guns' aren't the only option.

Personally I see Jorge as a guy that ends up being somewhere around a #4/5 or bouncing around as a long man. The low # of K's are a big part of that concern. The velocity and control (low BB's) make him intriguing though and in addition his youth give him a little more upside. I don't think he has much trade value but could be a nice 3rd piece in a big trade as mentioned. Or a primary piece is a Kevin Jepsen or better trade.

Who brought his Japanese career up? So you are focusing on a single injury while setting criteria for the other seasons that he just misses your cut? I totally agree that age (31) and one TJ surgery are big issues but these are pretty big concerns for any pitcher. And the question here is the level of pitcher that he is. No doubt ACE.

He has had one major injury that allow you to cherrypick his durability with this 200IP target (only 15 pitchers did this last year). He has pitched 3 full seasons and 3 partial (or none) seasons due to TJ. In his full seasons he has pitched 191 - 209 - 186 innings. The concern here is solely his TJ history. He has averaged 4.35 WAR per 30 GS. There are issues (post TJ) but he certainly fits the definition of ace.

You don't have to be a strikeout pitcher (lets say 8+ K/9) but you can't be at the absolute bottom (basically avoiding strikeouts). Among pitchers with 500IP from 2013-2017 there are only 6 MLB pitchers (Guthrie - Buehrle - Martin Perez - Kendrick - Simon - Pelfrey) with a <6 K/9. You can have success with out strikeouts but his MiLB numbers rate as among the worst in the majors. Perhaps he can be Buehrle but he is almost the exception.