markos

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses Second, it is hard to be "wrong" about predictions when the team is dealing with injuries/suspensions. The team that was on paper in March is NOT the same team that has been playing the past few weeks. I mean, what kind of prediction for the season would everyone have if you knew that: - Buxton was going to play less than half the games. - Sano was going to play only 80% of the games. - Santana was going to make 0 starts. - Polanco was going to play 0 games. If that was was known beforehand, I don't think there is anyone who would have been super confident that the Twins would be above .500. Finally, I do think that the front office deserves some criticism. My own bone to pick: Buxton has a pretty extensive injury history at this point. He gets dinged up; he misses time. The fact that they have yet to acquire a legitimate backup centerfielder for the 4th OF spot is unbelievable to me.

There has always been a good risk that Castro would fall off a cliff during his contract with the Twins. His batting profile (extremely high strikeouts, enough walks and power to be below-average but not terrible) was manageable during his prime, especially for a good defensive catcher. But a deterioration in any of his hitting skills would slide him into unplayable territory, and I thought it was unlikely that he would make it through his age 30-32 seasons without taking a step back. I was just hopeful it would happen in 2019, not 2018.

I don't think there is much to explain or try to figure out. A certain amount of his initial success was due to his funky delivery. Big league hitters are very good, and adjust quickly. I don't think it is a coincidence that last year players that faced Hildenberger more than once had a .800 OPS, while those who have faced him only once had a .413 OPS. Also, his velocity is down about 1 MPH from last year.

Biography: Age: 18 Birthday: June 5, 1999 Height: 6-2 Weight: 188lb Bats: Right Throws: Right Position: Shortstop Draft: Royce Lewis was drafted by the Twins with the 1st overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft out of JSerra Catholic HS. Going into the draft, he was on the periphery of the conversation for the #1 pick. While universally considered the prep position player in the draft, he was frequently ranked behind high school pitcher Hunter Greene as well as college pitchers Brandon McKay and Kyle Wright. And despite being drafted #1, his signing bonus was less than the three players I just mentioned. Nevertheless, don’t get the impression that the pick of Lewis was a “reach” by the Twins. Lewis was legitimately in the conversation for the #1 overall pick from the very beginning, and he had many factors in his favor relative to the other players. First, Lewis was a position player who would undoubtedly play an up-the-middle position defensively - either shortstop or centerfield. Position players carry significantly less risk than pitchers, and players with the potential to provide significant value on the defensive side of the equation also have less risk than players relying solely on their bat. Second, Lewis was among the youngest high school position players in the draft. There has been a number of historical studies that have shown that extremely young high school position players perform significantly better than their older classmates. One of the biggest question marks with Lewis was his defensive position. I think he would have had a stronger claim to the #1 overall pick going into the draft if scouts and analysts were in agreement that he could stick at shortstop. Instead, there were doubts about his ability to play the left side of the infield (not helped by the fact that Lewis wasn’t even the shortstop on his own HS team until his senior season), and some expectations that he would eventually need to move to centerfield. First Pro-ball: After signing with the Twins, Lewis was assigned to the Gulf Coast League Twins. There he put on an offensive show, batting an .803 OPS with more walks than strikeouts. In particular, his K% was only 10.7%. After 36 games, he was promoted all the way up to Cedar Rapids. There he held his own offensively, with an above-average .757 OPS, in 80 PAs. Defensively, he showed enough to stay at shortstop for the time being. I don't think enough good things can be said about Lewis's debut. His command of the strikezone, combined with decent power, is a very good skill to demonstrate at such a young age - particularly with his athleticism and defensive potential. Off-season Prospect Rankings: Baseball America: #24 MLB.com: #20 Baseball Prospectus: #27 Keith Law: #25 2018 Assignment and Outlook: Lewis was assigned back to Cedar Rapids to start the 2018 season. For 2018, I’m looking for the following three things from Lewis: Continue to maintain solid plate discipline Tap into his power more regularly Solidify his play at shortstopIn short, I am hoping for a repeat of Buxton’s 2013 season. I know that is a lofty goal, but I’m optimistic that Lewis can deliver - it isn’t unrealistic to expect Lewis to be a top-5 prospect in baseball by this time next year.

Blackmon's OPS outside of Coor's Field the past 3 years = .695 / .926 / .784 I don't think the Twins should resign Dozier at that price, but I do think that Blackmon is a pretty comparable player to Dozier. Justin Turner: 4/64 Lorenzo Cain: 5/80 Charlie Blackmon: 5/94 Justin Upton: 5/106 Dextor Folwer: 5/82 Dozier fits with that group.

The starting rotation has given up zero home runs, a .102 BABIP, and has stranded 100% of the runners they've put on base so far. Those numbers aren't exactly sustainable... I'm cautiously optimistic about the rotation, but I haven't seen enough to confidently say they are going to be above-average this year.

Is it just me, or his swing Denard Span-esque?

I don't have any love for the owners - I think they are a corrupt, dishonest, greedy bunch of swindlers that are running a cartel. That said, you can still recognize that the players have done A LOT to put themselves into this situation. For decades now they have put more and more of their eggs in the Veteran Free Agency basket. At every single opportunity, they have agreed to cut or cap the earning potential of draft picks and international signings. Draft signing bonuses are now slotted, and teams get more or less fixed bonus pools to work with. Internationally, bonus pools are completely fixed. 10-15 years ago, there were no limits on this, and players could even negotiate major league contracts right off the bat. Today, no drafted player is allowed to sign major league deals, and even the largest signing bonuses today are behind the deals inked by Cole, Strasburg and others almost 10 years ago. Similarly, they have agreed to limit earnings of minor leaguers and even MLB players on the league minimum. In the last decade, MLB overall revenue and Free Agent $/WAR valuations have basically doubled while the MLB league minimum has only increased by 40%. This is making players on the league minimum more and more valuable relative to veteran players. And the league minimum growth rate is only slightly faster than GDP growth over the same time. So it hasn't done much to make the young players FEEL that much more weathy during their first few seasons, which in turn makes team-friendly extensions that much more attractive to them. I'm sure discussions around extensions would be a lot different if the league minimum was $1m instead of it current $535K. And the pay for minor leaguers is a major issue on its own. I wasn't able to find any good data for the growth of minor league wages, but I did read indications that minor league salaries haven't even kept up with inflation since the 1980s. For the last two decades, the players have enthusiastically supported the luxury tax system, as it does funnel extra money to small-market teams that should make its way to player salaries. In practice, in the last decade the tax threshold has only increased by 30% - way, way, way behind revenue increases during that same timeframe. Further, almost every single team uses it as a de facto salary cap - the Yankees and Dodgers are the only two teams to be more than $10M over the threshold for multiple seasons since its inception in 2003. All four points I've mentioned are supported by the players union. All four, in theory, contribute to competitive balance. And all four have led to the current situation where veteran players are not getting contracts they think they deserve. Mike, I agree with you that the owners are going to take their cut no matter what. That is why I think the best way to increase the overall amount that owners will spend on players is to encourage owners to compete against each other for players. In my opinion, that would include: 1) don't limit or discourage the amount teams can spend, either through taxes, caps, or other penalties. (Yankees/Dodgers/Giants are not competing for free agents this offseason because of the luxury tax) 2) increase the number of areas where teams need to compete financially against each other to acquire players. (no longer really exists in the international and draft markets. Rule 5 changes have kept players on teams longer) The player's union has repeatedly advocated for the opposite in both of these areas.

Challenge accepted... By my own definitions, I decided that there have been 4 other mid-market teams that have recently gone through a rebuilding cycle: Oakland (2006-2012), Cleveland (2007-2013), Diamondbacks (2011-2017) and Milwaukee (2011-2017). By all of the metrics laid out below, I think it is fair to say that all four completed their rebuilds faster and with less overall losing than the Twins. # of seasons between playoff births: Twins - 6 (2010-2017) A's - 5 (2006-2012) Indians - 5 (2007-2013) Diamondbacks - 5 (2011-2017) Brewers - 5 (2011-2017) <- including because they won more games than the Twins last year even though they didn't make the playoffs. total # of losing seasons between playoff births: Twins - 5 (2011-2014,2016) A's - 4 (2008-2009,2011) Indians - 4 (2009-2012) Diamondbacks - 3 (2014-2016) Brewers - 3 (2013,2015-2016) largest # of consecutive <.500 seasons Twins - 4 (2011-2014) A's - 3 (2007-2009) Indians - 4 (2009-2012) Diamondbacks - 3 (2014-2016) Brewers - 2 (2015-2016) total # of <70-win seasons Twins - 4 (2011-2014) A's - 0 Indians - 3 (2009-2010,2012) Diamondbacks - 2 (2014,2016) Brewers - 1 (2015)

I'm pretty sure teams would tank (sell off veterans for prospects when in a losing cycle, with the benefit of improving the team's draft position) even if there was zero profit incentive. Every team needs to develop a core of young, cost-controlled talent in order to field a playoff caliber roster. The easiest way to do that is to tank.

I think a big part of the problem is that essentially every single team, from the Marlins to the Yankees, has to develop a cost-controlled core of stars in order to compete today. That wasn't true 10-15 years ago. With a little bit of hand-waving... A 90-win team needs to have ~40 WAR. This article looked at the changes in $/WAR over the past several years: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/ In 2007, the cost of 1 WAR in free agency was ~$5.4M. So a $216M payroll could support a 90-win team entirely of free agents. In 2007, the Yankees had an opening day payroll of $189M. 5 other teams had payrolls of at least 50% of that $216M level. The median team was at 40%. So that this point in time (and the years prior to 2007), there were a decently sized group of teams that could build the majority of their roster around free agency. In 2017, the cost of 1 WAR in free agency was ~$10.5M. So now it takes $420M payroll to build a 90-win team solely through free agency. The estimated highest payroll right now is the Red Sox at $230M. They are the only team above the 50% level. The median team is at 30%. Now basically every single team is primarily building around cost-controlled players. Maybe the Dodgers and Yankees could theoretically support a $400M+ payroll right now, but that just seems completely unfathomable given where the luxury tax is set relative to that number. So now you have essentially every single team valuing young, cost-controlled players more or less the same. Teams like the Cubs, Phillies, Astros, White Sox - large market teams all of them - have almost just as much incentive to acquire prospects by dumping expensive veterans in trades and losing to secure top draft picks as the Twins, Indians, Royals and Rays do. I don't know how to solve this problem...

I'll take Royce Lewis.

I would do that. I think any deal with Buxton that extends team control is incredibly important to this team. Even one season. I look at this organization, and there is a pretty nice wave of prospects in the low minors that should start reaching the big leagues in 2020-2021. It would be very nice to extend the number of seasons that Buxton and company are around so that the next wave (Lewis, Javier, et al) can just augment them rather than replace them.

I completely share your concern with his playing style. 100%. But if he really is considering a deal along the lines of Inciarte and Herrera, it is still worth the risk for the Twins to make that kind of offer. The commitment is small enough, so a worst-case scenario outcome with Buxton wouldn't negatively effect the franchinse (finacially) in any significant way. But the upside is huge, mostly in the opportunity to exend the years of team control beyond 2021.

It would be a HUGE coup if the Twins could sign Buxton to a deal anything like the Inciarte or Herrera deal. Arguably a franchise altering move.

Lorenzo Cain is the same age this offseason as Dozier will be next year. By WAR, they are pretty equivalent. Cain just got 5/$80M. Justin Turner was the same age when he was a free agent last year. He got 4/$64M. If Dozier has another good season, he is going to be one of the top 4 position players available next year. I think the Turner deal (which if I recall correctly, was kind of a below-market deal to stay in LA), is Dozier's floor. Also, I think one or more of the Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres will exceed expectations in 2018 and decide that their window is opening. Phillies aside, I don't think any of them will be able to afford. But Dozier might be an attractive target for that tier of team, much like how Cain worked for the Brewers this year.

I'm inclined to agree with this (just replace Dozier with Gordon), but it has to be said that Gordon, most likely, is going to replace only something like 50% of Dozier's value. It is going to be very hard to gain ground on the other playoff contenders if the Twins took a step backwards because they replaced a very good player with an average-at-best player.

I think there is a good argument that Dozier will be the #4 position player after Harper, Machado and Donaldson. The Angels, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Nationals all might be in the market for a 2B next offseason. I'm guessing Dozier gets a deal somewhere between Lorenzo Cain and JD Martinez this year: 5yr, $90M.

I know this post was specifically about pitching, but there does seem to be a league-wide shift in hitting perparedness. Just anecdotally, it certainly feels like the past, I don't know, four seasons or so have seen a lot more successful rookie debuts than before. While obviously not 100% success rate, teams like the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Cubs and Dodgers have introduced a lot of young players to the big leagues and it seems like the majority of them have hit the ground running, and several were immediately among the best hitters in baseball. Of the large number of Twins prospects that have been promoted over the past few years, I think Sano is the only one who really arrived "ready". Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Vargas, et al - hard to argue that any of them were immediate rookie success stories. I'm not sure if it is just random bad luck or what, but one of the things that I'm cautiously optimistic about the new player development is that young players will actually show up "ready" to play in the big leagues, rather than have them promoted because they had a great slash line after 100 PAs in AAA.

Thrylos, I don't always agree with your prospect opinions, but I always come back to your posts. You always bring a ton of knowledge, and I appreciate how you push relatively unknown names within the Twins system to the forefront of your lists. This year it is Rainis Silva. I frankly had no idea who he was, but he certainly sounds interesting and worth being on my radar.

I think the response to your question is that the pros don't point to anything Gordon has done on the baseball diamond as the evidence for his relatively high rankings. Instead, they frequently project physical tools that don't actually exist yet. Almost every prospect write-up about Gordon involves saying something along the lines of "Gordon should fill out and gain strength, which will provide more pop at the plate and allow him to make it through a full season without wearing down." While I don't doubt their expertise about the physiological development of players, it certainly is an inexact science at best to guess exactly how a 21-year-old will put on weight and strength, and how that will impact their overall athleticism and quickness. You can make some educated guesses based on their frame and maybe looking at their parents/siblings. But a big part of mental makeup, which is hard for scouts to really figure out. And another big part is his biological makeup, which is basically unknowable. I think everyone would agree that in his current physical form, Nick Gordon will not be even an average major leaguer. He needs to add strength. He needs to add endurance. And he needs to add both without loosing the athleticism that allows him to play shortstop effectively. That is an added risk that I think frequently gets down played by the professional analysts.

A few stats to think about with Odorizzi and his nice ERA: - Odorizzi had good fortune with bullpen help. League average ~30% of bequeathed runners on base end up scoring. Odorizzi had only 15% last year. - Odorizzi was 7th in baseball in total unearned runs. - Baseball Reference calculated that he had the easiest pitching environment in the AL in 2017. This attempts to combine the quality of opponents, team defense and stadium effects.

I am going to be down in Naples, FL towards the end of March on vacation with some extended family. I'm hoping to sneak away for a morning or afternoon and head up to Fort Myers to see the Twins. A few questions: 1) How much can I expect to see if I show up on random March afternoon? Will there be baseball-related activities going on no matter what, or will it depend on where the various squads are playing/scrimmaging? 2) Let's say I want to see Royce Lewis (or insert any other top prospect here) do some kind of baseball activity (game, scrimmage, BP, bullpens, whatever). What is the best way to arrange for that to happen? 3) I'm assuming that I have to get actual tickets to attends the spring training games. Do I have to get tickets (or something) in order to enter the facility and watch scrimmages/games/practice on the back fields? Thanks in advance to any and all responses. Also, feel free to message me if you don't want to post publicly.

I'm guessing that the Twins have PitchFX/Statcast capabilities in their Ft Myers facilities to determine if his stuff has improved independent of his results. To that end, maybe they think he is a tweak or two away from being effective again. From what I've read recently, Detroit is pretty far behind in their data and player development abilities. If I recall correctly, Houston was able to almost immediately fix a flaw in Verlander's delivery that make his slider more effective based on their data and high-speed camera analysis.

I don't think he was even on the Twins radar until Santana had surgery. Given the nature of his contract, I'm guessing this is the thought process: - if he is bad in spring training, he is cut - if he is decent, he takes Santana's spot in the starting rotation - once Santana comes back, he gets cut unless he is performing I would probably put the over/under on regular seasons games started for the Twins at 1.