Cody Pirkl

His launch angle actually decreased from July though and his 13 degree launch angle in August isn't really a problem. His launch angle in all of 2020 for example was 12.1 degrees.

Appreciate it! I dug quite a bit for any change in approach but there doesn't appear to be a whole lot there. His 13 degree launch angle in August was perfectly fine and was actually lower than it was in July. The same can be said for flyball rate and pull rate, the two things you typically see increase when a hitter is only worried about homers (see Buxton).

Luis Arraez has had a tremendous season, likely earning the title of Twins MVP so far. He looked to be on track for a career year through the end of July, but then came a confusing August. What went wrong for the Twins leadoff man in the dog days of summer? In case you haven’t heard, Luis Arraez is an incredible hitter. In the era of trying to do as much damage as possible on every swing, Arraez waits out opposing pitchers and is just as happy to take a walk or squeak an opposite-field grounder through the hole as he is to drive the ball over the fence. In addition to how fun it is to watch his unique style, Arraez is also quite good. He’s been an above-average hitter by wRC+ in every month of 2022, which makes an August slump hard to complain too much about. Make no mistake, however, Arraez has hit a skid over the last month. What could be the cause? .269/.316/.394, a .710 OPS for Arraez in August. While still 4% above a league-average hitter in that time, it’s a far cry from the .338/.411/.445 line he posted in the first four months. Hitters slump, and oftentimes those slumps look a lot worse than what Arraez has done in August. Still, it’s worth exploring what could be going on. There have been a few narratives floated about Arraez’s struggles. The first of which has been an increase in fly balls, perhaps in pursuit of more power from the Twins leadoff man. Looking back, it’s easy to remember several lazy fly balls Arraez has produced. His 25.7% flyball rate in August is perfectly acceptable and is lower than the rate he produced in April and July in which he posted a .783 and .817 OPS respectively. The second has been a decline in the quality of his at-bats, particularly an increase in chase rate. Again, this mark has not seen a spike, and saw a decrease from July. And so it’s time to explore the simplest explanation for the decline in Arraez’s struggles: Impacting the baseball. His struggles are actually quite simple and yet very complicated. Arraez simply isn’t hitting the ball as hard. For the last three seasons, Arraez’s hard hit rate hovered just above 30% for reference. In August, he posted a 20.8% mark. While this explains his struggles, the complicated question becomes why. Of course all players are entitled to slumps, including the hitting machine Luis Arraez. It’s entirely possible that the calendar turns to September, and he’s exactly the same hitter he was for the first four months. That being said, it’s something to keep an eye on. Arraez suffered from what could be considered chronic knee issues every year of his career thus far… except for 2022. He famously spent last offseason working out with Nelson Cruz to strengthen his ailing knees and it’s hard to argue the results so far. That being said, Arraez is five games from tying his career high in games played with over a month left. He also hasn’t had any IL trips along the way to catch a breather and has nearly been an everyday player as we head into September. There’s no way to know for certain, but hopefully, his recent performance isn’t a result of his knees or any other nagging injury. If I had to guess, I think Arraez finds his way back to being tremendously productive in the batter's box in September. He’s a smart hitter who can likely find a way to adjust his approach to still succeed even if he can’t get his higher exit velocities to fully return. For a hitter who hits a noticeable skid and still posts an above-average batting line, it’s hard to be too concerned moving forward. Do you agree? View full article

FWIW I wrote this prior to him being put on the IL which is what I wanted to see over them just sitting him for a day or 2 and sending him back out. The difference between the entire season of managing him and now is how bad he looked on Monday. They can't let him continue getting to that point, and if they're out of it by the time he's eligible to be back, there's no reason to risk it.

Because they've been a straight up bad team since May and it comes down to more than just "giving up" as I've pointed out. I think we need to just agree to disagree on this one because I see you're quoting every single comment in the thread that slightly suggests that the team may not be very good.

My point exactly. I wrote this prior to him going on the IL and I just didn't want to see them rest him for a day or 2 and send him back out given how rough he looked yesterday. They basically bought themselves 10 days at this point. If the team plays as poorly as they have been they could be 5+ games out of 1st at which point there's no reason to bring him back if he's not 100%.

I think its probably safe to assume when they say "time off won't fix it" that it's going to require some kind of surgical procedure. And in regards to further injury, again, go back and watch him last night. He's running around on one leg which is how further injury happens. I don't think its that much of a stretch to draw these conclusions based on the info we have available.

My point is I think the team and his body have reached the point where whatever procedure he needs done should probably just be done. He could barely walk last night and if guys like Correa and Polanco aren't going to do their jobs then there's nothing the Twins can do with or without Buxton that'll get them into the playoffs

At no point do I cite the slump he's in for why he should be shut down. My point was A. That he could come back on fire and the team may still be bad enough to miss the playoffs and B. That it's not worth the risk of an injury that extends into 2023 which if you watched last night's game is a real possibility. He couldn't even camp under fly balls last night with his full weight on both legs. He's not helping anybody if that's where his body is at and he's just putting himself at additional risk.

Byron Buxton has been playing injured literally since day one. He has grinded to be on the field as much as possible. As the season winds down and the Twins desperately need a star, however, it ironically may be time for Buxton to shut it down for good. The Twins have slowly sunk from their spot in first place and are months removed from looking like a quality baseball team. As crunch time nears it’s justifiably the first thought that we want Buxton on the field no matter what to provide whatever spark he has left. It’s becoming more and more apparent for several reasons however that the Twins should just play it safe and shut their star down. This Could Become a Bigger Injury Buxton has dealt with a nagging knee and hip injury all season which almost certainly will take some sort of clean-up procedure this offseason. That being said, we can hope at this point that the issue can be fixed and healed to kick off 2023. We saw on Monday night however just how hobbled he is, catching balls on one leg and taking awkward follow-throughs after swings. With how physically compromised he is, there’s no doubt he’s putting himself at risk of much more serious injury as he’s forced to modify his mechanics in everything he does on the field. An injury such as an ACL at this point would knock Buxton out for all of 2023, a season that should be prioritized at this point as the Twins are returning a better pitching staff on paper than they’ve had in several years. What Buxton has done this season is commendable, but it may have all come to a head on Monday night when he was pulled early and appeared to be completely incapable of continuing to play baseball any longer. He’s still a long-term asset for the Twins and we may have reached the point where that has to be valued above all else. Buxton May Not Matter Is there a case that the Twins best player not being in the lineup for the stretch run may not matter? I’d say yes given the context of the rest of the lineup. Buxton could go on an MVP level tear from now until the end of the season, and the Twins could still miss the playoffs because of what the rest of the lineup is doing. While Buxton has been struggling recently, the lineup’s inadequacies were front and center in a four-game series against the very bad Texas Rangers in which the Twins managed to score six runs total. Injuries play a part with several potential spark plugs missing such as Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis, but it’s hard to argue that regulars such as Correa, Polanco and Kepler haven’t pulled their weight in months. After a trade deadline in which the team patched up the pitching issues that plagued them all season, the offense has become embarrassingly bad, oftentimes being unable to overcome nights where the pitchers allow more than one run. In short, regardless of how Buxton does if the Twins rush him back, he’ll be surrounded in the lineup by some of the most anemic and situationally poor hitters in baseball for the last few months. One player can’t win all of these games. Is that worth the risk? It would be a huge bummer to see yet another Byron Buxton season shut down by injury, but this is what we have to expect at this point. In many ways, it’s becoming more and more apparent that it’s time to set sights on 2023 with this very flawed team, and this is particularly true in the case of Byron Buxton. It’s a fact that a fundamentally sound roster would have opened up an insurmountable lead in the poor AL Central, and Buxton’s workload could have been managed more conservatively down the stretch as a result. Instead, the Twins are stuck in no man's land with a roster that’s difficult to take too seriously despite ample opportunity to control their own destiny. Their star was pushed beyond what should have been asked as a result. At this point, the overly aggressive push in regards to Byron Buxton should be done. The priority should be the long term. It’s time to shut him down and let the AL Central cards fall where they may. View full article

The Twins called up Cole Sands a few weeks ago saying they were in need of a long reliever, something that makes a lot of sense given the makeup of their pitching staff. A few outings later, however, this statement has become fairly puzzling. Some people have been calling for a long reliever to be added to the roster for much of the season. It made sense, after all, considering the way the Twins have chosen to construct their pitching staff. Between Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and even Joe Ryan, the Twins don’t have many pitchers that can be pushed into the late innings. As a result, Cole Sands was called up to avoid having to use 4-5 relievers every time one of these starters takes the mound. Through a week and a half, however, the Twins aren’t using Sands in the way we expected. Sands’ first outing back in Minnesota was impressive and just what we had in mind. Spinning three innings of shutout ball, Sands was able to save the bullpen. Since that first outing back on August 7th, however, Sands has pitched twice, both in one-inning stints. Perhaps a long relief opportunity hasn’t presented itself, but his recent usage may say the bullpen hierarchy isn’t what it probably should be at this point. In his last outing, the Twins led 9-0 against Kansas City in the 9th inning and Sands was called upon for mop-up duty. Rather than deploying Emilio Pagan who two outings prior gave up a walk-off home run and had yet another longball pulled back by Nick Gordon in his most recent appearance, the Twins turned to their so-called “long reliever.” Nobody will blame the Twins for not being able to tell the future, but the very next day Tyler Mahle left in the third inning and the Twins turned to Emilio Pagan in the role Sands was supposedly brought up to fill. The game was ultimately filled out later by several high-leverage relievers just as we’ve seen in short starts all season. Pagan was less than dominant but got the job done. The outcome here is inconsequential with the day off Thursday, but it raises questions about the Twins bullpen management, particularly in regards to long relievers. In years past the Twins have not only had rosters that a traditional long reliever would have helped, but they’ve also had respectable options to fill such a role. From Randy Dobnak in 2021 to Cole Sands and Josh Winder this year, the Twins have a history of rostering these players and not setting them up for success in a long relief role. In all three cases, these pitchers have been used inconsistently in regards to the frequency they pitch as well as the situations they’re used in. Not only does this usage not provide the team with the bullpen support they so badly need, but the pitchers themselves often suffer without the structure they’d grown accustomed to as starting pitchers. Unless the front office simply views Sands as a traditional relief pitcher at this point in his career, there’s no reason for him to be on the Major League roster filling one-inning stints. He clearly won’t be allowed to pitch on back-to-back days, so unless he’s the #1 option to come in and fill multiple innings, there are several relievers in AAA who can come up and better fill such a role. Perhaps Mahle’s short start was a wake-up call, but Cole Sands simply isn’t being used in the way he should be. It’s disappointing to see considering how much of an impact a true long reliever could have in this final month-plus of the season. Furthermore, it hasn’t been encouraging to see that the Twins prefer to use their so-called “long reliever” in mop-up duty over Emilio Pagan who still appears to have the Twins complete trust despite the seismic shift he’s made in their season with some of the ugliest blow-ups in Twins Territory since Ron Davis was closing out games. It’s impossible to say whether the Twins feel the same way, but they should be staring down two options moving forward. Either schedule out “piggyback” scenarios with Cole Sands to use him in a way that will maximize his ability to fill innings, or replace him with a traditional reliever that doesn’t need time off after a one-inning stint. Anywhere in between these two options would be doing a disservice to themselves. The Twins need a long reliever and now they have one in Cole Sands. It’s time to start using him as one. View full article

The Twins Injured List continues to grow as the season rolls on as they’re now missing several important contributors who hopefully haven’t made their last marks on this 2022 Twins team. Some absences however weigh a bit heavier than others. It seems like there’s a new player added to the Injured List every other day as the Twins have found themselves filling out the daily lineup card with players we never imagined they’d be relying on. Outfield, catcher, pitchers of all roles, there’s nowhere the Twins haven’t felt the sting of injury. For them to get back on the right track, I’ve ranked the top 3 players in order of importance to how the Twins may wind up finishing their season. 3. Trevor Larnach Larnach last played at the end of June before undergoing core muscle surgery that turned out to be the likely source of his struggles before hitting the IL. Before being limited by injury, Larnach was a solid contributor to the Twins in multiple ways. The slugging left-hander was about league average in March and April before exploding to the tune of a .333/.431/.646 line in May. He also graded out well in every defensive metric, as what he lacked in outfield range, he made up for in sure-handedness and an arm that had bullied teams out of trying for extra bases. What was originally a six-week timetable appears to have been pushed back to closer to 10 weeks with little updates along the way. The Twins are hoping Larnach can be back in early September for the stretch run which would be huge for the lineup. Any kind of return to form would result in Larnach taking playing time away from players such as Jake Cave and Tim Beckham. Larnach should also slot into the top 4-5 spots in the lineup with his patient approach and bat capable of some much-needed fireworks. He’s been lefty-proof in his career thus far, actually hitting southpaws better than righties which makes him an everyday player if Kyle Garlick doesn’t make his return this season. 2. Ryan Jeffers Many complained about Jeffers’ bat, myself included, for much of the season. While he hasn’t lit the world on fire, it’s hard to deny that Jeffers has a superior glove to Gary Sanchez who’s played far too often since Jeffers went down. The former Yankee, a bat-first catcher, has given us a newfound appreciation for Jeffers’ modest offensive skills since he’s become the everyday catcher. Sanchez was 24% below the league average hitter in June, and a Drew Butera-esque 59% below in July. Not only is his defense not up to Jeffers’ standards, but the Twins have basically been giving away 3-4 free outs per game to their opponents from the catcher’s spot for over a month. Sandy Leon has begun eating into Gary’s playing time as he can at least provide stellar work behind the plate, but the Twins certainly would benefit from Jeffers return sooner rather than later. The floor of his framing work behind the plate and occasional hot streak sounds far superior to the current setup. It’s hopeful Jeffers returns towards the end of August and certainly for the stretch run in September. 1. Bailey Ober The Twins had a fantastic trade deadline, there’s no disputing that. They had a significant amount of needs and addressed the most important ones in a market that many teams called difficult. One more filler-type starting pitcher certainly wouldn’t have hurt, however. The Twins are in an interesting spot with the rotation. Joe Ryan has begun to surpass previous career highs in innings pitched. It’s hard to expect more than four innings pitched from Bundy and Archer every time out, and there’s little to no help on the way in the minors aside from Devin Smeltzer. A lot will hinge not only on the rotation staying healthy, but on the duo of Bundy and Archer occasionally providing starts that give the Twins a chance to win, which is no sure thing. Having Ober back even under the premise that he’s a solid #4 starter would be a game changer for a Twins rotation that lacks any kind of depth. It’s unclear what Ober’s timeline is, but we’ve been told we can expect him back this season still at this point. Hopefully good news starts to emerge sooner rather than later, as the Twins could surely use one of their lone bright spots from the 2021 rotation. Admittedly this list is plenty interchangeable and there are several options not even listed here. Let's be honest, we have plenty of injured players to choose from! Do you agree with the order of the list? Do you think someone not listed here deserves to be at the top? Let us know below. View full article

Yup, and for what it's worth I don't blame anyone for not putting their complete trust in bWAR or fWAR. One thing I think everyone should agree on however is that he's been a fairly big disappointment.

He isn't playing to his contract though. Fangraphs has him at $13.3m in value on his $35m contract as noted in the article.

I don't think Polanco was going to play shortstop under any circumstances, they've made it abundantly clear that he's just a second baseman now. FWIW Correa is actually having his worst defensive season of his career by just about every metric since he was a rookie. I also don't think you pay $35m for any player unless you think they're a difference maker on defense AND offense.

What I meant more by that is teams look beyond opportunity based stats more than they did in the 90s and 2000s. Maybe back then his pace of 60ish RBI would make it impossible for anyone to consider a long term deal this offseason whereas now I think teams look further elsewhere in search of indicators of actual skill. In Correa's case this year however he's actually had a fair bit of opportunity to cash in RBI and has been absolutely brutal in those scenarios so who knows.

3-4 win players aren't bad but that's kind of what we expect from Polanco who's making considerably less money and I think we all agree is at least a tier below a Carlos Correa level player. 3-4 win players don't get 10 year contracts or 1 year deals for $35m and I'd bet if you asked Correa himself he'd tell you he's disappointed. Furthermore, Correa has accumulated his offensive numbers in a similar way to what makes fans so angry about guys like Buxton and Sano by doing it in white hot streaks followed by nothing. He was on fire in May and June now as the season hits crunch time with a 1 game lead in the division he's actually hurt the offense by providing so little at the top of the lineup. It might be a trend and I wouldn't be disappointed to have him opt back in next year. I think that becomes more and more likely if he continues playing the way he has for the last month plus.

I don't think it's useful to compare players to their counterparts on a 2021 Twins team that finished in last place. Especially in the case of Simmons if you're going to use that as the baseline you'll almost never be disappointed with any players' performance. I get that these players are human and have ups and downs but bottom line in a season where the Twins are missing a ton of players in a tight division race, it's disappointing what their $35m superstar shortstop has contributed which is virtually nothing since June. I have a feeling people won't be very laid back about Correa continuing to drag the top of the lineup down if the team falls out of the playoff picture.

Carlos Correa has been a good player in 2022, but far from the superstar type that makes $35m per year. In search of a long-term deal in the near future, it’s becoming more and more intriguing to ask: Could Carlos Correa opt back in for 2023? Carlos Correa has had a weird 2022 season with the Minnesota Twins, who brought him in as a second superstar to hopefully pair with Byron Buxton at the top of the lineup. His wRC+ of 122 indicating he’s been 22% above league average is perfectly acceptable, but in a down offensive year league wide, that number stems from his first sub .800 OPS since the shortened 2020 season. The way the rest of the season plays out may play a big part in whether Correa opts into his $35m option for 2023. Thus far, the Twins haven’t really gotten the Carlos Correa they expected when they handed out so much money to him this spring. Lacking in the Clutch Correa has become a legend because of his incredible clutch play in the postseason year after year. He owns a career .849 OPS in the playoffs with 18 homers and 59 RBI. Historically there are few players in baseball history you’d want up in a big spot when a game is on the line. Unfortunately for the Twins, that hasn’t played out at all this season. Look no further than Correa’s 37 RBI to see that he simply hasn’t cashed in when given the opportunity. With runners in scoring position, Correa has posted a triple slash of .231/.316/.292. An OPS of .608 which is good for 33 percent below the league average hitter in those situations. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Correa has been a complete non-factor, slashing .097/.200/.129, a .329 OPS. If you feel like Correa hasn’t really had many big moments in a Twins uniform at the plate, it’s hard to blame you. Clutch stats can only be looked at so closely as they’re typically pretty random. That being said, Correa’s severe failures in big situations has undoubtedly cost him some counting stats. While teams don’t value things like RBI like they used to, Correa is on pace for some of the worst marks of his career in several areas. Not a great time for it considering he’s seeking a massive long-term contract this winter. Defensive Disappointment Personally, it’s felt like Correa hasn’t been the gold glove caliber defender we expected at shortstop, and upon further investigation, this turns up true in just about every defensive measure you can find. Fangraphs defensive value measurement pegs Correa at a perfectly neutral 0.0 value added on defense this season. He’s been well above average in this statistic in every season of his career since 2016. In addition, Correa scores a -3 Outs Above Average on Statcast, tied with Tim Anderson, Alcides Escobar, and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa for 26th among shortstops league-wide. He’s also on pace for his worst mark in Defensive Runs saved since his rookie season. The newer defensive metrics are tricky and many don’t trust them for good reason. Looking at base defensive measures, however, tells the same story. Correa’s fielding percentage of .975 is his worst since his rookie year and he’s on a full-season pace for a career-high in errors. It goes without saying that in search of a long-term deal at 27 years old, Correa can expect significantly less from teams if they suspect his defensive future at the premium shortstop position is going to be short-lived. At 6 foot 4, Correa had questions dating back to draft day about his ability to stick at shortstop. As he gets into his late 20s, a down season defensively would surely be cited in free agency to try to drive down his price by teams trying to lock him up for the next 8-10 years. Carlos Correa has been far from a bad player in 2022, but for the price tag he has and the number of holes the Twins roster has had for much of the season, it’s fair to be disappointed with the level of output he’s provided. He’s on a 162-game pace of 3.2 Wins Above Replacement on Fangraphs, and trails Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Arraez. He’s only half a win ahead of Trevor Larnach, who hasn’t played since the end of June. He’s tied with Sonny Gray who’s thrown all of 79 innings so far this year. Since July 1, crunch time for the Twins who hold a one-game lead in the division, Correa is hitting .183/.287/.333. Yet another measure of the Twins' $35m man failing to meet expectations when they’ve needed him most. And so in consideration of Correa’s future with the Twins, it’s fair to say it’s still very possible he opts out. Hitting free agency at the age of 28, it’s possible a team completely disregards 2022 and signs the Twins' current shortstop away long-term in pursuit of a superstar. That being said, you can expect Scott Boras to put out some feelers, and if he gets the sense teams are going to try to cite Correa’s disappointing 2022 season to nickel and dime them on a long-term deal, another one year, $35m deal to recoup some value certainly won’t be out of the cards. Do you think it’s possible Carlos Correa could opt back into the Twins contract in 2023? Do you agree that this has become more likely as the season has gone on? Let us know below! View full article