Cody Pirkl

It's not giving up on Martin, it's getting value for a player that looks like a future bench player at best due to a lack of an opening and his declining performance. Laureano also could easily play everyday in a corner spot. Throw out Martin though and make up whatever package you'd like. He had premier defense when he wasn't playing in CF and can fill in in a pinch when Buxton is out. He was suspended at the start of last year too, not injured. I think he's a great way to consolidate too many low impact and redundant options like Garlick, Kepler, Celestino etc. He was still seen as an impact player that teams were interested last trade deadline and that wasn't for no reason.

FWIW I'd love a right handed Joey Gallo on this team but there's no similarity between these two whatsoever aside from their plus arms. Laureano is nowhere near the strikeout or walk rates and even in a bad year clubbed LHP. Also he posted 4 Defensive Runs Saved in a brief time in right field. He's a plus defender aside from Center.

I'm more desperate to capitalize on the little value Martin has left before its gone. He just posted a sub .700 OPS and hit .241 in AA and can't play defense. Not really sure why we're pretending he's untouchable, he's been out of any top prospect conversation for a year and a half now.

I think we need to revisit Austin Martin's production since he's come over. His best chance at sticking at a position looks to be at 2B where he's blocked by two plus players. He's also shown no ability to actually hit and was absolutely horrid in AA last year.

The shelves in Oakland are bare as the A’s continue to gut their roster. One key piece remains however, and if Billy Beane and company are looking to shed even more payroll, the Twins should be on the phone. Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports Ramon Laureano was once a huge name on the trade market before failing a PED test and having a down season in 2022. Still, at 28 years old the talented outfielder has a lot to offer a team that’s trying to contend. Laureano’s peak season came in the juiced ball season of 2019 when he posted a 127 wRC+ and was a 4+ win player. Though failing to match that level of output since, Laureano has been an above average hitter in two of three seasons. His defensive value has taken a bit of a hit, though his outfield jump and arm remain at near elite levels. His days as an everyday centerfield may be behind him, but his four defensive runs saved in right field in 2022 show that he can still be a plus defender in the corner with the ability to slide over in a pinch. Laureano isn’t an elite hitter, but he’s a solid one. His best tool is typically his barrel rate and the right-handed hitter is fantastic against left-handed pitching, slashing .268/.346/.444 against southpaws in his career. Despite a disappointing .663 OPS in 2022, Laureano still carries a .768 OPS in his career. It’s hard to imagine he’s done producing at his age. Ramon Laureano is a fiery player and would provide the Twins with a superior and more versatile right-handed option in the outfield than someone like Kyle Garlick. With news that Joey Gallo will be moving around, sometimes to DH and even in the infield, there should be plenty of at bats to go around in the outfield rotation if the Twins want to consolidate their depth. In regards to cost, the Twins would be buying low on Laureano who was a slightly below average hitter in 2022 and proved that his days as an everyday centerfielder are likely finished. Still, a rebound to some degree is probably in the cards, and him being a plus defender in a corner is likely with his raw skills. He won’t cost as much as he once would have, but given his team control through 2025, he’ll still cost a fair bit. Looking at recent trades the A’s have spun for players such as Sean Murphy and Frankie Montas, they seem to favor quantity on the return to quality. Given their inability to fetch top tier prospects for either of these two, the Twins farm system may be a good match considering we’d prefer to hang onto players at the top of our rankings. It’s entirely likely that prospects such as Austin Martin are options as part of the package. Even someone like Gilberto Celestino could make up a portion of a trade given the disappointing debut of Christin Pache in 2022. It’s hard to say what Oakland would be interested in, though it’s safe to say they’re willing to unload Laureano’s increasing arbitration money, and it’s unlikely his cost would cripple the Twins farm system. Adding another dependable outfielder could also open up players such as Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach for trade packages to acquire further talent if the Twins chose to go that route. While it seems like they have the outfield squared away, Laureano could shake things up and open up an entire world of possibilities. It’s sounded like the Twins are focused on the position player side in trade talks. They should be, assuming Carlos Correa works out a deal elsewhere. Laureano would be the solid right-handed outfield bat it was long expected they’d be pursuing. It may finally be time for the Twins to get involved in the gross teardown in Oakland by prying their final asset away, View full article

The Twins primary goal of the offseason was to bring back Carlos Correa. Having failed on step one and having missed the opportunity on many other top free agents, the answer could be to pivot to the reliever market. Image courtesy of Bill Vilona/Special to News Journal, Pensacola News Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC In 2022, as has been the case several recent seasons, the Twins’ patchwork bullpen was an unmitigated disaster for much of the first half of the season. While their 3.68 bullpen ERA through the end of May looks fine and grades as middle of the pack, the 0.2 fWAR accumulated in that time was dead last in the entire MLB, and the team had blown six of their 13 save opportunities to that point. It was such an embarrassment that the front office was taking questions in every interview about reliever trades on the horizon despite the deadline being months away. We’ve seen this cycle for two years now where the team insists they can build a bullpen with little investment. In both 2021 and 2022, they made one single somewhat notable relief addition that they saw as a value in Alex Colomé and Emilio Pagán, and in both cases it can be argued that there wasn’t another player as destructive to the team’s success as these two in their respective seasons. In both cases, by season’s end, the Twins had a respectable bullpen. In 2021 it was far too late as the Twins were out of contention. In 2022, the Twins were able to hang around despite countless crippling losses along the way. In 2023, the Twins have a perfect set of circumstances to come to the conclusion that this cannot happen for a third year in a row. Having lost Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela, the Twins will be without two of their top four hitters in wRC+ from 2022. Some fans continue to cite better health and breakouts from young players to make up this gap, but every projection strongly disagrees. Also consider that while the Twins waited on Correa, just about every other impact free agent found a home elsewhere. The Twins are now left with $20-30m left to spend to get to 2022 levels and no everyday players to spend it on. The goal now should be straightforward: Improve whatever areas of weakness you can. With a returning bullpen of Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar etc. the Twins should be in better shape in this regard than prior seasons. Still, filler arms such as Trevor Megill have a place, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Jorge Alcala who missed all of 2022 with elbow issues. There are also several intriguing arms remaining on the free agent market. In true Twins fashion, they could take a flier on a bounceback candidate like Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel blew 5 saves in 2022 and was left off of the Dodgers postseason roster, but his “down” season still consisted of a 3.75 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning, .60 HR/9, and a mid to high 90s fastball. The Twins don’t need Kimbrel to come in and close despite his preference to do so. He may wind up having to take whatever deal he can to reestablish his value, and the Twins could use some upside in case someone like Duran stumbles or misses time. They could also still use a second left-handed reliever to pair with Thielbar. They could gamble on longtime great Zack Britton who’s thrown just 19 innings the last two seasons but has always been death on lefties. They could also bet on 2022 breakout Matt Moore whose 1.95 ERA in 74 innings was simply dominant. There are several other situational or high upside arms remaining such as a reunion with Michael Fulmer to match up against right handed heavy lineups. They could throw money at once lockdown relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Corey Knebel, or Alex Reyes. They should reasonably have 1-2 spots in the bullpen pecking order to take a chance or two like this to try to avoid the early season meltdowns we’ve seen so many times. While none of these arms are sure fire bullpen aces, one thing is for certain: the Twins have a lot of money to spend to get to 2022 levels which should absolutely be reached again. They also have little to spend it on for the rotation or position player side. Given how big of a problem the bullpen has been in recent years, that money would be better spent trying to avoid the yearly early catastrophe’s we’ve grown accustomed to. With how much they’ve lost from the lineup, they may not be able to afford it this year. View full article

With high-end, free agent options dwindling and the Twins nowhere near their 2022 payroll, it’s unclear what kinds of additions may be on the horizon, but the offseason is far from over. Let’s check in on what we’ve heard of late. Image courtesy of Twins Daily Free agency options for the Minnesota Twins have dwindled over the past three weeks as every high-profile position player and starting pitcher has left the free agent board, often at shockingly high prices. However, even though all of the high-profile arms are gone, decent options remain in free agency this offseason. We're going to run through some of the remaining names. Nathan Eovaldi Hands down the best-remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market, Eovaldi has built a surprisingly low amount of steam on the rumor mill. Despite a five-man rotation already being penciled in, the Minnesota Twins still appear to be a potential suitor. Eovaldi's medicals may scare some teams away from the long-time Red Sox starter, who will play his age-33 season in 2023. Despite a down season, Eovaldi would make an excellent addition to the rotation as a potential #2 starter if he can stay on the field. Health, of course, is a big question for the Twins, who were burned tremendously by pitching injuries in 2022. Also, the Qualifying Offer attached to Eovaldi means it would cost the Twins a draft pick if they sign him. Is it a gamble they’ll see as worthwhile on a pitcher who would likely become a top 5 contract given out in Twins free agent history? Regarding the remaining pool of free-agent starting pitchers, there hasn’t been much smoke in the Twins. Likely, they aren't as interested in signing depth pieces for the rotation as they have been in recent years, given the current 1-5 and the depth of arms in the high minor leagues. Brandon Drury Also noted by local reporter Darren Wolfson is an increase in interest among free agent Brandon Drury, who had a career season in 2022. Drury’s market was slow for the past month but may be building in recent days. A third baseman primarily, Drury has played a bit of corner outfield, and the Twins would undoubtedly benefit from another right-handed bat with some thump. Drury’s 123 wRC+ would have ranked 5th in 2022 behind Luis Arraez, and his 28 homers would have tied Byron Buxton for the lead. He may not slot in at a particular position every day, but his bat would be a welcome addition. AJ Pollock After the more prominent names signed with other teams, Pollock has recently been linked to the Twins. With an already full outfield that will likely lead to a trade, the Twins appear to be searching for another right-handed bat capable of holding down an outfield spot. For a good reason, Pollock has not been mentioned much so far this winter. At 34, he had what can only be described as a lost season as he posted his first below-league-average batting line since 2016 and battled injuries throughout. It’s not exciting, but it’s one of the few options the Twins have left to add a right-handed outfielder. Even last season, Pollock was 61% above league average against left-handed pitching. With Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler (at this point), etc., the Twins could set themselves up with platoons in both corner spots to try to make up for the offense lost in the departure of Carlos Correa. Craig Kimbrel & Zach Britton Finally, on the free agent reliever side, the market has been quiet since big names such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson have signed. Many potentially impactful options remain, though many come with their fair share of question marks. Could the Twins meaningfully dip their toes in the free agent relief market despite their history of reluctance to do so? They certainly have the payroll space. Household names such as Kimbrel could make sense, as although he had a down year by his standards in 2022, the Twins could take a gamble with multiple arms, such as Jorge Alcala, being question marks. Adding Kimbrel in a position where he doesn’t have to close or even set up on day one could offer the Twins some insurance if one of their high-leverage arms misses time or struggles. The same goes for lefty Zach Britton who’s coming off an injury but has long been a reliable back-end reliever. There hasn’t been much development in the market either. They could also turn their eyes to Matt Moore, who had a resurgent season in Texas, posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 74 innings. It’s likely with this tier of reliever that, we won’t hear much momentum on deals until they’re just about wrapped up. The Minnesota Twins trade market is likely to get rolling soon, though, for a team that rarely leaks information, we’re left with little more speculation on what it could entail. Still, with about $24m to spend to get to the 2022 level of payroll, we will likely see this gap closed across the next few weeks through free agency. Even though it won’t be spent on Carlos Correa or a similar level player, it should be fascinating to see what the rest of the winter has in store for Twins fans. View full article

The offseason has gone far differently than fans or likely the Twins had hoped. After missing on Correa and many of the impact free agents, options are dwindling. One option that simply cannot be considered is rebuilding. Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Reports are starting to surface about the possible path of the Twins taking a “step back” in 2023, with players such as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda starting to draw trade interest. Who could blame teams for asking? It sure appears the Twins had all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket, as just two of the top fifteen free agents remained at the time the Twins got news that their star shortstop had chosen to move to San Francisco. The twins are left with a strikingly similar roster to their 2022 squad that finished in 3rd place of the soft AL Central, minus their most valuable player of course. Even if they turn to Joey Gallo and trade Max Kepler, it's hard to count on the trade off adding much value unless Gallo rebounds in a major way. With the cost of free agent pitchers and the Twins having three starters set to depart after 2023 in Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it may become tempting as teams begin offering impressive packages to pry them away. It's easy to look at investments in a new catcher and outfielder and see the intent to compete now, but a lack of further success in acquiring players and some tempting trade offers being dangled could definitely sway a team that still looks to be on the bubble. Unless the Twins have plans to replace one of these arms after trading them, this simply cannot be a solution. Since the end of the 2010 season, the Twins have made the playoffs three times, being swept out on each occasion. They’ve been above .500 four times in those twelve seasons, including a six-year stretch from 2011 to 2016 in which the team was completely irrelevant. Since winning back-to-back AL Central division titles and appearing to be building steam as an up and coming core in 2019 and 2020, they’ve missed the playoffs twice, including in the inaugural expanded playoff season in 2022. In short, it sure looks a whole lot like Twins fans have spent the majority of the last twelve years in misery. Their only payoff is back-to-back division titles resulting in an immediate exit from the playoffs. Is that the business model the Twins want to present to their fanbase by entering yet another rebuild? The Twins were already publicly disappointed by fan attendance in 2022. It’s safe to imagine those issues accelerating greatly with any steps back in attempting to compete. They also have a TV network negotiation on the horizon, a transaction the Twins will have little leverage in as the viewership numbers almost certainly crater. From a pure baseball perspective, the Twins are in the easiest division in baseball with two more teams being admitted to the playoffs in the AL moving forward. They have one of the better rotations on paper that they’ve had in recent years. They still have star power and core contributors such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez on the position player side. With just a handful of acquisitions, the Twins could take the projected 78-81 wins they already have currently and easily become competitors. Having spent very little of the assumed $50m or so they had available coming into the offseason, deciding to take the easy way out would be a devastating decision for all parties involved. The prospect of the Twins actually going this route sounds ridiculous, but you can imagine a situation where they can justify it to themselves. The front office wouldn’t go this route unless they had no concern about losing their jobs. It was very heavily expressed at the end of 2022 that ownership still had faith in Falvey and company. They’ve always operated with an eye on getting value, oftentimes at the expense of acquiring players that actually make the team better. With the way free agent contracts have blown up on pitchers, this may be the most valuable time in history to trade pitchers such as Gray and Mahle who are only controlled for one year. There could be a scenario where they look at the dwindling free agent market and the likely inflated trade offers they receive and decide to once again side with value over acquiring quality players. At this point, improving this team is going to hurt and likely draw scrutiny. The majority of impact will have to come from trade at the cost of organizational talent, a disappointing outcome considering the amount of money they should have had to spend on free agents. They did this to themselves though, and the alternative is simply unacceptable in regards to Twins fans who have spent far too much time and money watching a mediocre product. In 2023, a step back simply isn’t an acceptable conclusion. View full article

The last two seasons haven’t gone the way we’d hoped for the Twins. With the offseason continuing to unfold, many questions remain unanswered. The Twins could find themselves leaning heavily on breakout candidates in 2023. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Even if Carlos Correa returns, the Twins roster will not be a geared up contender for the AL Central. Hopefully multiple acquisitions are made, but the Twins will also be relying on several players to break out. Luckily in the case of the Twins, there are plenty of candidates. Trevor Larnach Larnach now has two seasons of flashing white hot stretches at the plate followed up by extreme lows. His most recent run in 2022 began with a slash line of .299/.375/.515 through the end of May, only to finish with a .429 OPS in June. Larnach suffered a core muscle injury that eventually resulted in his season ending. Did said injury knock him off of his peak, or did pitchers adjust to his approach as they did in 2021? Larnach became a certified asset in the corner outfield because of his arm and should provide a safe floor in terms of value due to that defensive ability. The question is whether he can consistently contribute at the plate. While expecting him to be 50% above league average offensively as he was for a stretch in 2022 is too much, those two months show the talent he has hidden away somewhere. His knowledge of the strike zone and ability to punish mistakes could lead to his emergence as a legitimate middle of the order bat. Even that outcome would give the Twins lineup an entirely different look. Griffin Jax Perhaps the crown jewels of the Twins pitching pipeline at this time are of course Jhoan Duran and the underrated Griffin Jax. In the latter’s case, it is a story of great success. After failing to hold up as a started, Jax switched to the bullpen and quietly posted a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 IP in 2022. Striking out around 27% of hitters, Jax was a great setup man in a pinch. For a portion of the season he was likely the Twins second best reliever. So how could he break out and become even better? It appears for starters that Jax is working on adding velocity, never a bad idea! His wipeout slider wasn’t enough to keep hitters off his fastball which allowed a .530 SLG in 2022 so perhaps some added velocity could help. Jax also sneakily had a very effective changeup which he used around 14% of the time. Perhaps in just his second season as a reliever he can add some velocity and use his changeup as an equalizer for lefties a bit more. Given the baseline he showed in 2022, doing so could make him a devastating weapon at the back end of games. Alex Kirilloff Unfortunately at this point Kirilloff’s breakout feels like a pipedream due to his inability to remain on the field. The talented former #15 overall pick has been dealing with wrist issues for years. Following multiple surgeries, the most recent of which can be considered experimental, it’s hard to rely on Kirilloff for any kind of value moving forward. That being said, he displayed his pure hitting skills throughout the minors and flashed them in the MLB during the short stints he’s been healthy. While it’s hard to find sustained success in his brief career, it’s easy to forget that he was considered the best pure hitter in the Twins system not that long ago, regularly dominating the minor leagues. Fans may be tired of waiting, but the Twins drafted Kirilloff out of high school six years ago. If he can take the field in the spring, the Twins will give him every opportunity to succeed, as they should. We’ve rarely seen Kirilloff take the field while healthy, but at just 25 years old it’s not time to give up on him just yet. Long projected to be a cornerstone of the lineup, health is the main question that Kirilloff looks to answer in 2023. If that wrist allows him to swing the bat, don’t be surprised to see the former first rounder as one of the Twins most consistent hitters. Does anyone on this list stand out above the others? Is there a major breakout candidate not listed here? Let us know below! View full article

I'd love to see them bring in Kenley Jansen or someone like that, that'd be a super fun addition. They've just never shown an interest in spending money that way. Maybe after their process has derailed the last two seasons they're willing to change it up, but I wouldn't expect it until we actually see them pull off a signing like that.

Normally I'd agree but I think we've seen that the alternative to going to the young, unproven upside arm is likely the Twins signing a Steve Cishek or Hunter Strickland level reliever and letting them stick on the roster with a 5 ERA until August just because they're a veteran. If you want to argue for a competition between Henriquez and say Josh Winder in the spring, sure. I just think that if they bring in an external option for the bullpen it'll be someone who shouldn't be signed by a competing team and winds up retiring after one last awful season in a Twins uniform circa Joe Smith. They don't meaningfully invest in the bullpen which is fine but if they're looking to fill out the fringes, Henriquez is a better candidate than whatever 35 year old is still a free agent in February.

By the time Ronny Henriquez debuted in 2022 many fans were likely already tuned out, which is fair. His late season appearance however shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to the role he could play in 2023. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Ronny Henriquez was acquired in the Mitch Garver deal and was seen as a middling starting pitching prospect. The ERA results weren’t there, but at 21 years old, Henriquez posted a 25%+ K rate at every stop in the minors. His generous listing at 5’10 raised questions about his ability to stand up to a starter’s workload, and those concerns escalated when he posted a near 6 ERA in AAA out of St. Paul’s rotation in 14 starts. His strikeouts continued to impress however, and he was finally moved to a relief role toward the end of the season. As the Twins faded out of contention, they finally began cycling in younger talent instead of pitchers such as Joe Smith and Tyler Thornburg. In the case of Henriquez, what we saw was very encouraging. As we’ve seen with Twins pitchers who boast plus sliders, the Twins weren’t shy about having Henriquez go back to the well on his best pitch. He threw his breaking ball nearly 50% of the time as his primary pitch, and in his short stint it proved to be lethal. Despite being by far his most used pitch, the slider induced a whiff rate of over 31%. Not only did it avoid being hit, it allowed a .136 batting average and .227 slugging % when hitters did make contact. His secondary pitch being the changeup only drew a 22.6% whiff rate, but it too allowed a sub .200 average and sub .300 slugging % against as well. Henriquez flashed two plus offerings to get both left and right handed hitters out consistently. The issue with Henriquez was the fastball. His main concern in St. Paul was the long ball, and the culprit was front and center when he joined the Twins. In his admittedly limited action, his four seam allowed a .400 batting average and staggering 1.400 slugging percentage. Hitters teed off on the pitch, and it’s not difficult to see why: The good news on the rocky debut of his fastball is that the adjustment is obvious and likely easily fixed: Keep it out of the heart of the zone. The heat map at the top of the zone is fantastic. Adjusting the trend in the middle of the zone could raise his game to new levels in a bullpen role. Henriquez shouldn’t be an offspeed needy, fastball avoidant pitcher. The 55 scouting grade on his heater is easily justified, as the pitch has been noted to have tremendous ride and can often be pushed into the upper 90s when needed. While the slider was the eye popping weapon he showed in his debut, it’s possible the fastball could become just as big of a pitch moving forward despite how bad it looked through his first 11+ innings. Even pushing the pitch to average would make Henriquez a legitimate bullpen piece. Despite being just 22 years old, it can be argued that Henriquez’s days in the minors should be over. With his three-pitch mix one could argue Henriquez should still be working toward a future rotation spot. The issue is that Henriquez is currently on the 40-man roster and would likely be 7th on the starting pitching depth chart at best. He’d have to have a good bit of success in AAA before being entrusted in such a role with the big league club. Much like what’s been argued with fellow top prospect Matt Canterino, it seems like a waste of time to slow cook prospects who appear to be able to help the club right now in pursuit of the very small chance that they can latch on as a starter. It’s not entirely clear what the Twins offseason plan is regarding the bullpen, but we can assume nothing big is coming. At most they’ll likely sign a Joe Smith caliber pitcher to fill some innings and try to milk some value out of. They may make a waiver claim on a pitcher who does one thing well in pursuit of the next Matt Wisler. Instead we should be hoping for the Twins to turn to one of their young upside arms, a commodity that has been very difficult for this front office to come by. Rather than spending a few million on another veteran reliever to spend the last year of their career in Minnesota, why not turn to the 22 year old with two plus offspeed pitches and a high 90s fastball? Henriquez could take a low leverage, possibly even multi inning role and get a chance to work his way up the depth chart. If he struggles he can be optioned for another arm as opposed to the yearly bounce back candidate signing that sticks on the roster far too long due to their veteran status. Last year the Twins may have leaned too heavily on their internal pitching production. This year they have much more in place, and gambling on Henriquez in a minor role seems like a worthwhile bet. Ronny Henriquez should be in the Twins Opening Day bullpen View full article

Every offseason seems to have the same blueprint in Twins Territory: find some pitching. While far from well off on arms, for once it can be argued that the Twins should be a bit more worried about the lineup. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Talks of coaxing a high end starting pitcher to Minnesota are swirling as should always be the case when premier pitching is available, but the Twins don’t have an entire rotation to overhaul as they have in recent years. Adding an ace to the group of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober would be a massively positive move, but with a fair amount of pitching talent and depth in Minnesota, perhaps we should be turning more attention towards getting lineup help. As things stand, Carlos Correa is not currently a Minnesota Twin. Though inept in clutch spots for much of the season, a massive chunk of the Twins offense will be missing should Correa find another home. The Twins set a floor at shortstop with a savvy addition of Kyle Farmer, but the dropoff from a player who was 40% above league average offensively to one that was 9% below in Farmer would be felt on a daily basis. Farmer being the Opening Day shortstop would be far from a disaster, but in order to compete, the Twins would need to massively supplement their position player group elsewhere. Headed into 2023, the Twins have a fun group of young, high upside hitters that have some questions to answer including Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and eventually Royce Lewis. It’s a similar position to the one they were in last winter with the pitching staff. Having filled out 40% of the rotation with Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer and another 40% of the rotation with two rookies in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, the Twins gambled on contributions from their young pitching which had proven nothing yet. It was an unmitigated disaster aside from Ryan. Top prospects such as Jordan Balazovic cratered in AAA. Josh Winder was ineffective and had recurring shoulder issues. Having done so in just about every season of his career aside from 2021, Bailey Ober once again missed massive amounts of time. They didn’t have the floor they thought they did. The Twins need to avoid gambling on their player development in 2023 as much as possible. They’ve drastically overestimated their ability to produce quality regulars in recent years. And while the most recent bursted bubble was on the pitching side, gambling on unproven, often injured players such as Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis to keep an MLB roster afloat simply cannot be the game plan at this point. They also had to trade away several up-and-coming possible impact hitters as a result of their recent miscalculations. Also consider the health of the team. Beyond the young players having missed time in 2022, players such as Jorge Polanco no longer appear to be locks to play 150+ games. Byron Buxton’s injury risk will always be a consideration. They also no longer have Gio Urshela to add production to the fringes of the roster, and unfortunately at this point anyone expecting any kind of offensive competence from players like Max Kepler are likely going to be very disappointed. In short, the Twins lineup isn't a force to be reckoned with. It does appear to have some upside and depth, but the trick is getting said lineup to the threshold of “quality” which likely requires multiple more additions. Perhaps it is adding Correa or one of his fellow free agents such as Xander Boegarts . The heavily left-handed outfield could also use another right-handed option such as Mitch Haniger. Perhaps they’ve even liked what they’ve seen from Jose Abreu across the division enough to bring him in as a veteran RBI machine that can DH and cycle into first base. While several creative moves are certainly on tap for the winter, it may be time to recognize that the current rotation has the possibility of helping a team to a playoff run. It’s hard to say the same about the position player group. For once perhaps fans should pivot off of the “Can he pitch?” replies to every acquisition the Twins make. It’s time to worry about the bats. View full article

While far from a major problem, the Twins could use a shake up in the outfield headed into 2023. Could a journeyman on the Brewers be the answer? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are full of talent in the outfield but are a bit left-handed heavy. It’s also begun to feel like long-time Twin Max Kepler’s time is running out in Minnesota. Effectively swapping him out for a right-handed platoon option seems like a relatively small move that could pay off big time for a Twins roster which is fighting for a return to relevance. Hunter Renfroe has never been a big name in his seven seasons but has been nothing less than a solid player for some time now. In 2022 he had a career season, slashing .255/.315/.492 in Milwaukee. Having already bounced between four teams in his seven years, could yet another trade help return the Twins to the promised land? Complementing the Corners Between Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, the Twins outfield is overly left-handed, and we’ve seen teams abuse that late in games the last few seasons. Only Byron Buxton and the recently re-signed Kyle Garlick balance things out, and recently neither has been reliable in terms of their availability. Renfroe would not only be a welcome addition in terms of production (.258/.350/.492 vs LHP in 2022), but in terms of reliability. The aforementioned Buxton and Garlick combined to play just 158 games in 2022. Renfroe played in 125 even being used in somewhat of a platoon role in Milwaukee. While Garlick in particular fills the “lefty masher” role, he’s been an easy out in his career against right-handed pitching and has been healthy enough to play in just 102 games for the Twins the last two seasons. Renfroe on the other hand was 20% above league average against same-handed pitching in 2022 while still filling the same role Garlick does, with an injury history that suggests he’d be more available on a day-to-day basis moving forward. While Garlick and the Twins recently agreed on a contract for 2023, the amount is miniscule, and if they could swing a trade Renfroe, being an upgrade over Garlick is an easy argument to make. The Twins would be well positioned with a lefty masher who’s capable against righties and can fill in at either corner to complement their many left-handed options. It seems like a win-win. Change is Coming Though nothing is definitive at this time, there’s been some talk of Kepler’s time in Minnesota coming to an end. Filling his spot with someone like Renfroe makes too much sense. Nearing 30 years of age, we know what Max Kepler is. While capable of providing gold glove caliber defense, it’s safe to say this value is outweighed by his extremely limited offensive profile. Long understood to be an incapable hitter against left-handed pitching, Kepler has recently failed to post even league average offense against righties. Too often, his at-bat results in pulling a ball either straight into the ground to second or first base, or popping out to shallow right field. He has failed to adjust his approach at all, and is no longer even a league average hitter. Yet he’ll continue to start day after day due to his defense. A pivot to Renfroe adds so many dimensions to a Twins' lineup in need of a breath of fresh air. In addition to Renfroe’s superior bat, he was also worth six Defensive Runs Saved in left field and two in right field. A slight defensive downgrade is possible, but that step down will be far outweighed by the need Renfroe would fill in the Twins lineup. In terms of financial cost, the trade off also is not that restrictive. After making a bit under $8m in 2022, Renfroe will likely be due $10ish million in 2023. Assuming the Twins can find a home for Kepler’s $8.5m salary, it won’t cost them much. It’s also possible they could get creative and include a player such as Gio Urshela in a trade to the third base needy Brewers in a deal for Renfroe, which would unload even more money. With the Twins having high free agent aspirations at positions such as shortstop, the trade market may be the place to look for offensive help. With Teoscar Hernandez recently being traded for a 28-year-old reliever and a minor leaguer, a Renfroe trade continues to look more and more affordable. The Twins should be looking to shake up the outfield with a more diverse set of players. Renfroe may just be the answer. Do you agree? View full article

The Twins need bullpen help and could certainly use another left hander to mix and match with late in games. Luckily an old friend is looking for a home this winter. Is a reunion with Taylor Rogers in the cards? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have mostly neglected the bullpen in years past and it’s more often than not blown up in their faces. The few additions they typically make are what many consider “bargain bin” pitchers, typically coming off of rough seasons in search of a bounce back. By targeting Taylor Rogers, they can stick to the strategy we’ve seen them use time and time again, though this time the payoff could be much better. Rogers is coming off of a rough season by his standards. In 64 innings he posted a 4.76 ERA. His strikeout rate remained strong at 30.7%, still in the 10th percentile in all of baseball. His walks ticked up slightly as did his homers, though neither to a worrisome degree. While his peripherals were higher than usual, they were far from disastrous (3.32 FIP, 3.26 xFIP). His season was marred by untimely meltdowns, blowing 10 saves between San Diego and Milwaukee. Is there hope Rogers could rebound in his age-32 season? As noted, Rogers was still able to strike out hitters at an impressive clip, and while his average fastball was down over a full tick from 2021, his average of 94.3 mph isn’t far off from his career norm. There isn’t much to suggest that he’s entered the decline of his career quite yet aside from his unsightly ERA. One little talked about factor of Rogers's season is that it appeared San Diego changed the shape of his slider. The pitch was three mph slower than it was in 2021 and had 40.4 inches of drop as opposed to 35.7 in 2021. Instead of the hard breaker we’d grown accustomed to seeing, Rogers was throwing more of a looping breaking ball. While the results didn’t show up on the slider, it was likely easier to differentiate between his out-pitch and his sinker. His slider’s underlying success was about the same, but his fastball produced the worst underlying numbers of his career. It seems like this would be an easy fix for Rogers to make. With the rest of his stuff appearing to be intact, Rogers could be due for a huge bounce-back. At the very least his underlying numbers as is suggest he massively underperformed in 2022. Rogers also had an absurd 16 saves through May 21, as a questionable Padres bullpen leaned on him heavily to begin the season before he began to unravel. We saw a decline in performance from the left-hander in Minnesota during several seasons when Rogers was ridden particularly hard. The Padres may have simply bent him until he broke early in the year, especially given the fact that he was coming off of a finger injury. A Twins bullpen consisting of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez, etc. is a far cry from the bullpens of Twins past or the Padres early 2022 bullpen in which Rogers was the go-to guy for every situation. With more options, the Twins would be able to avoid any kind of burnout Rogers has suffered from in the past. In regards to the fit, the Twins could greatly use another left-handed option even as Caleb Thielbar has become a certified dude. Having two left-handed options who can also get righties out at a respectable clip would add an entirely new dimension to the Twins bullpen. We often saw Thielbar pitching in late situations regardless of matchup in 2022 when other arms were missing or struggling, leaving the Twins without another effective lefty if a matchup opportunity arose. Rogers would be an easy and familiar fix. Let's be honest. The Twins aren’t going to all of a sudden pony up and sign a legit back end of the bullpen reliever. It’s not in their DNA. There’s a lengthy list of their typical candidates they’ll probably be plucking a few names from in hopes that one of their bounce-back projects finally works out. Instead of hitching their wagon to an Ian Kennedy or Archie Bradley, why not reach out to a familiar face with tangible signs of a rebound in their profile? Not to mention the fact that it would be a homecoming for a homegrown player who was just recently a fan favorite. Taylor Rogers checks a lot of boxes that the Twins are looking for, and a reunion just seems like it would make too much sense. Should we be hoping to see the former anchor of the Twins bullpen added back to a new look core at the back end of games in 2023? Let us know below. View full article