Cody Pirkl

IMO the reason Miami would sell low is because they still have an incredible rotation with a bunch of other monster arms approaching the MLB. That alone isn't enough to trade someone just to trade them but they have a desperate need for controllable bats and I think they match up well with the Twins in that regard.

I'm not super worried about expenses for next year, as you said they'll cost less to acquire and we can count on Correa's $35m falling off for next season. We also shouldn't have to invest much in the rotation and we know they won't do so in the bullpen regardless of where things stand there. I get the nervousness around trading for a pitcher in need of fixing, but this is what they do. In Maeda's case he needed a pitch mix change that made a huge difference. In Paddack's case it was performance and health based. Regardless of how they worked out, I think the history of this front office operating on the trade market tells us these names are more realistic than a pitcher that comes in and is immediately our #1. I'm not saying they shouldn't trade for Mahle, Montas, Castillo etc., it's certainly the safer value. I just think they're going to be one of the first teams to bow out when the bidding wars begin.

Better than Ober or Dylan Bundy as playoff starters I'd argue yes. The point of these names isn't that they're ready made improvements to the front of the rotation, they all have tweaks to make that could get them there. I don't think anybody thought we were getting anything better than a low end #3 when we traded for Maeda. I get why people don't want to see names like this as trade targets but unfortunately I find them more worthwhile to talk about than someone like Frankie Montas until the front office proves me wrong.

The trade market will be here before we know it and some teams are already getting some rumors swirling. The Twins have some needs as we know, and there may be some targets that fit their style. The lineup is solid and an addition probably isn’t 100% necessary. The bullpen is probably in need of two solid arms at the very least. The question is whether the Twins see it necessary to add to the rotation. With arms shuffling in and out with injury and none of their top prospects in AAA looking like options as late-season additions, it’s possible the front office finds themselves searching for help. The Tyler Mahle’s and Luis Castillo’s of the world are fun to dream on, but the Twins have a type. We’ve typically seen them target arms that need fixing as we saw with Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack. The prices are lower and despite injuries to both, they’ve shown that they can be trusted to fix talented arms that haven’t reached their full potential for whatever reason. There are a few such pitchers that could be available this summer. German Marquez Could this finally be the year? The Rockies could have gotten a haul for Marquez at one point if they had only accepted that their best-case scenario was fourth in their own division with no shot at a wild card. Present-day not much has changed in that regard and perhaps their tune has changed. Since the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Marquez’s performance has dropped off precipitously despite being just 27 and now the Rockies will likely have to accept a much more modest return in trade if they ship off their former ace. Part of his issue is plain bad luck this season as Marquez has posted a 6.09 ERA with better peripherals despite pitching in Coors. His home runs have spiked and his strikeouts have dried up. With a year and a half of control left, the Twins could swoop in and save Marquez from the thin air of Colorado. His once-vaunted mid-90s fastball and disgusting slider are getting clubbed this season and just a few tweaks paired with a better park could revitalize Marquez. It’s unclear whether the Rockies intend to continue trying to contend, but the Twins have plenty to choose from at all levels of their system for a trade return. Kyle Hendricks “The Professor” as he’s known in Chicago has had a storied career on the North Side, helping the Cubs break their World Series drought in 2016 and serving as their ace for several years. The back end of the four-year deal Hendricks was given has not gone according to plan, as he’s posted middling numbers at best in 2021 and to begin 2022. The Cubs have a lot of question marks in their near future and they may finally be open to talking trade in regard to their 32-year-old soft tosser who has a year and a half left under contract. Hendricks' average fastball has settled in around 87 mph at this point which sounds scary, but the right-hander has never averaged even 90 on the heater as he’s dominated lineups with command and poise. It’s certainly walking a tightrope with such little velocity, but Hendricks has done it before and nothing in his stuff screams that he can’t do it again. He’s recently changed to a changeup-heavy approach, his best pitch which has led to a few better outings lately. Perhaps the Twins have their own ideas to fix, but given Hendricks’ 4.95 ERA so far this season, the Twins would be paying far from the ace starting pitcher price. Trevor Rogers Perhaps the riskiest target, Rogers has legitimate ace upside and has very recently shown it in the MLB. During the minor league shutdown, Rogers gained significant velocity on his fastball which has held ever since, contributing to his 2.64 ERA in 133 innings in 2021. So far this season, however, Rogers has been a completely different pitcher, posting 5.87 ERA and seeing his K rate drop from 28.5% to 18.7%. At 24 years old with four and a half years of control remaining, this could be the highest upside gamble the Twins could make. Rogers’ decline is puzzling, as his plus-plus changeup has underperformed and the rest of his repertoire has followed suit. His release point has steadily dropped ever so slightly since his debut which could be one issue the Twins could look to clean up. The Twins and Marlins have long been discussed as a great trade fit, as the Twins need young pitching and the Marlins need some young MLB-ready bats to support their already fantastic rotation. Make no mistake, this would be a blockbuster, likely involving someone like Jose Miranda and several other painful pieces leaving Minnesota. Still, Rogers might be just a small tweak away from a return to form, an outcome that would likely make him the undisputed #1 pitcher in the Twins rotation. That’s a possibility that’s hard to ignore. It’s possible this is the year the Twins go and get a ready-made ace. Personally, I’d hold off on such ideas until we actually see it. Instead, there are several pitchers that could be on the market that fit the Twins mold of acquiring talented arms in need of a tweak or two. Do you think any of these names are likelier than others? Do you have any names that aren’t on this list? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is in need of some aid in high leverage. Help may be on the way from outside sources, though not for at least another month with the trade deadline on the horizon. Luckily, they have a few internal options that could possibly make a leap. After opening the season in near spotless fashion, the Twins bullpen has shown some significant blemishes in the form of late-blown leads in particular. Help appeared to be on the way in the form of Jorge Alcala before his rehab stint was paused due to recurring elbow pain. The pipe dream of Matt Canterino coming to save the bullpen is also on hold as he was recently placed on the IL with elbow issues. What we’re left with is Jhoan Duran appearing to be the one and only high leverage option we can trust with little internal help on the way. The Twins however have a few pitchers who could change that belief. Jharel Cotton Once a top starting pitching prospect, Cotton dealt with a plethora of injuries before taking off in the Ranger’s bullpen in 2021 only to be DFAed despite solid results. The Twins saw an opportunity and have bounced him on and off the 40 man in 2022, recently adding him back on Wednesday. Unlike his first few stints in the Twins pen, this time there’s ample opportunity for him to stick. Cotton has an unspectacular profile for a reliever with his low 90s fastball and changeup as a primary offspeed. Unlike most changeups however, Cotton’s is relatively effective against both right and left handed hitters. The pitch is good enough to carry his entire repertoire with its 44% whiff rate, and neither his fastball or changeup have allowed hitters any opportunities for success in his 10.2 innings thus far. He may not be a closer or even setup man in waiting, but Cotton came out and performed when the Twins needed it most during the Toronto series. We saw DJ LeMahieu touch him up for a homer on Thursday after a borderline call that could have ended the at bat, but Cotton looked like one of the better relievers in that game and his peripherals still look great. Caleb Thielbar Many were quick to call for Thielbar’s release after four bad outings to start the year despite his massive contributions to the Twins bullpen in seasons past. Unsurprisingly, the 35 year old appeared to be missing some feel in those appearances following a shortened Spring Training which resulted in some uncharacteristic walks. Since then, Thielbar has been incredible. Thielbar may currently hold the “lefty specialist role” to an extent due to his devastating numbers against left handed hitters (.154/.313/.154). That being said, he’s far from your typical fastball/slider lefty. He mixes in a curveball with differing speeds and an occasional changeup to help equalize right handed hitters. He doesn’t have a single pitch that’s allowed a batting average above .240 or slugging percentage above .400 despite 63% of his opposing hitters being righties. With the current state of the bullpen, Thielbar’s stuff may be too good to pigeonhole him into lefty/lefty matchups. As we saw early in Taylor Rogers’ relief career, if the opportunity and talent are there, being left handed doesn’t have to mean you need to be used as a matchup reliever. Jovani Moran Perhaps the favorite of this group, Moran could legitimately find himself shooting up the depth chart with just a few successful outings. The left hander simply dominated the minors last year with a K rate of around 40% between AA and AAA. After taking his lumps in his debut in 2021, his unbelievable stuff has been on full display in his 8 plus innings so far in 2022. Walks will always be a part of Moran’s game and he’s walked 17% of hitters so far this year. That being said he’s always limited home runs and hard contact to cancel it out. Furthermore, his 37% K rate so far shows that his raw stuff should be good enough to make this work despite the free baserunners. Regardless of the small sample, Moran has a whiff rate of over 44% on both his fastball and changeup which he uses to give opposing hitters absolute fits. He rarely uses his slider, but so far every opposing hitter who’s swung has come up empty. While such dominance simply cannot hold up to that extent, stretches like this don’t happen by accident. Jovani Moran is absolutely nasty. It’s possible the Twins have a big move in them to provide the bullpen with a huge boost. I’d argue such a move is a must. That being said, the team has a month plus worth of games to play before even considering such an addition. We’ve tried Tyler Duffey, we’ve tried Pagan, it may be time to look at some unlikely candidates to pick up some high-leverage work. Do you think any of these arms can grab the job and run with it? View full article

Yet againm Jorge Polanco is off to a slow start in 2022, something that has gone largely unnoticed until the Twins recent difficult stretch. With multiple staples of the lineup missing, it’s worth asking whether the Twins struggling second baseman can pick up the slack. Jorge Polanco has proven to be a difficult player to assess in recent years. After a 2019 breakout, the Twins second baseman required ankle surgery and suffered through a brutal 2020 before requiring yet another surgical intervention. He also missed a few games here and there in 2021 and more recently 2022 with ongoing issues with the same ankle. The issue just never seems to fully improve. What we’re left with is the constant worry that Polanco’s ankle is holding him back during any stretch in which he struggles. In 2021, he looked cooked through the end of May with no signs of life before turning his season around and finishing as arguably the Twins' player. Can we expect the same 2022? Through the end of May this year Polanco has once again not been good. His wRC+ suggests he’s actually been 2% above the league average hitter, but this is during one of the most pitcher-friendly starts to a season in years. His .227/.324/.358 line through May is a massive disappointment. Unlike in recent years where he struggled early, however, there are a lot of positives the further you dig. In 2021m Polanco was worth over 4 wins by Fangraphs measures, a threshold that indicates a very high-quality player. Polanco slashed .269/.323/.503, slugging 33 home runs down the stretch. As you can see, Statcast’s measures aren’t painting the picture of a major fall off from 2021. Polanco’s .228 average is ugly, although underneath the hood his .277 expected batting average is better than his monster 2021 season. His .356 slugging percentage is far below his .498 expected slugging, which is also ten points higher than his 2021 mark. In short, Jorge Polanco has not been a very good hitter, but his results are lagging behind his process at the plate which appears to still be elite. So what could be going on with Jorge Polanco? For starters, it’s fair to wonder whether we’re just watching some bad luck. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but Statcast suggests that if Polanco continues what he’s been doing he’s in for some major regression in a positive way. It’s fair to consider however that the baseball MLB is using may be impacting him negatively. Polanco doesn’t have big-time raw power as his 33-homer 2021 suggests. With reports surfacing almost daily of players noticing different baseballs even on an inning to inning basis, Polanco could be a victim of MLB’s newest favorite game to play: Which baseball are we using today? Statcast’s expected stats are based on how players impact the ball and what kinds of results that impact has historically led to. It’s possible that the historical significance of Polanco’s batted balls needs to be thrown out the window as MLB tries to encourage a move back to early 2000s style baseball. Polanco’s 20.2 degree launch angle is a career-high. Without Miguel Sano type power, it’s possible that Polanco’s increasing launch angle is going to lead to more lazy fly balls than balls over or off of the wall if the baseball is designed to kill offense. At any rate, It’s difficult to say whether Polanco is in for a major rebound, although it may be safer to lean in that direction. He’s done all he can so far to repeat his star level performance in 2021, but it’s possible his actual results are out of his hands to a degree. Offense has seen an uptick across the MLB in recent weeks (difficult to imagine if you’re watching the Twins I know), and it’s hard to say whether it’s the weather, luck, or yet another baseball commissioned by the MLB. All Polanco can do is continue to grind out his plate appearances as he has been and hope the hits start falling. Do you think Jorge Polanco is due for a rebound? Are his struggles more than just bad luck or a sabotaged baseball? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins will likely be in the market for relief pitching at this year’s trade deadline as their bullpen continues to get a massive workload game after game. With the long term in mind, it may make more sense for them to start looking sooner rather than later. The Twins bullpen has currently thrown the fourth-highest number of innings in baseball behind only the Rays (of course), Pirates and Orioles. This likely isn’t a huge surprise for fans who take issue with the Twins' starting pitching management and this regime’s avoidance of pushing their starters. There are a few reasons, however, that we find ourselves here. For starters, the shortened spring training has impacted pitcher’s workloads, particularly Sonny Gray who was barely ready to start the season on time leading to several shorter starts as well as getting eased back in after injury. Also, consider pitchers like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy whose repertoires make them untrustworthy to navigate the order three times through. In most of these cases, the Twins are playing better safe than sorry, and it’s worked out as the rotation has been successful overall. Secondly, the Twins aren’t creating situations where they feel they can push said pitchers. Since the Astros series ended on May 12, the Twins have played 12 games and just three of them have been decided by three runs or less despite facing easy competition. As a result, the starting pitching has a quicker hook as the team tries to preserve the lead. An offshoot of this is the Twins needing to use their high leverage relievers almost daily. It’s only out of necessity that pitchers such as Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax ever get the day off. This recent trend boiled over on Wednesday against Detroit, where Caleb Thielbar had to pitch against a flurry of right-handed hitters in the 9th inning of a tied game, far from the situation you want. After narrowly escaping a bases-loaded jam, the Twins were forced to turn to Trevor Megill making his second appearance since being called up from St. Paul. He promptly allowed a two-run home run in the 10th. The Twins had simply run out of relief arms, and the loss left the bullpen even more shorthanded for the first game of the series against Kansas City on Thursday. In an ideal world, the offense would soften some of these games and allow the pitching staff some margin for error. Perhaps as the weather warms up they’ll be able to do so. Rather than hoping, however, the Twins can take matters into their own hands with an early move to solidify a bullpen that’s performed incredibly well thus far. Adding one more high leverage reliever would go a long way in easing the stress being put on the bullpen. One more high-level arm would push pitchers such as Pagán and Jax down into roles that they’re probably better suited for. It would also make managing Jhoan Duran’s workload much easier. All of this would help the Twins maintain their solid bullpen performance in the long term of course, but it would also help them win games in the short term as we saw on Wednesday. While it may be early, there are several obvious teams who aren’t going to be competing this year and who may be willing to talk trade already. The Baltimore Orioles have the 3rd lowest bullpen ERA in baseball and have several trade candidates such as Jorge López and Félix Bautista. Even a team like the Pirates are holding onto some quality relievers such as David Bednar. The Twins bullpen troubles are far from what they were in 2021, but given how good the team has looked, it may just be worth being aggressive. On one hand such an early trade could be seen as paying a premium, but they would also likely avoid the bidding war we typically see hours before the deadline. It may just be worth asking around to see if they can swing a surprisingly early deal. Jorge Alcala would have been huge for this bullpen, but after being added to the 60 day IL with little news to follow, he’s become a massive question mark. Several prospects such as Matt Canterino look like they would be dominant forces at the back end of games, but the Twins have shown no signs of moving them out of starting roles. Instead it appears most of the internal bullpen options are minor league signings in AAA. By all accounts it appears the Twins are destined to explore the bullpen trade market in July. Why not kickstart the process now? View full article

On Wednesday we got news that two months after acquiring him, Chris Paddack had undergone the 2nd Tommy John surgery of his career. Despite the obvious disappointment, the book on this trade is far from written. It was always fair to question trading away Taylor Rogers before a season in which the Twins were expected to compete. Chris Paddack did his part to quiet those worries through his first four starts, pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA and looking like a solid mid-rotation, arm who was controlled for three years. Now that he’s certain to miss the remainder of 2022 however, frustrations with the trade have begun to boil over again. It’s worth considering however that several pieces of this trade have yet to play out. The full details of the trade involved the Twins shipping out Rogers and Brent Rooker and receiving Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and eventually player to be named later Brayan Medina. While the Twins have used Pagán in high leverage despite his tightrope act, the backbone of the trade was Rogers for Paddack. Admittedly this comparison is heavily skewed in the Padres favor, at least in the short term as we’re left with Pagan vs Rogers. Looking at the full picture however, we have a ways to go before declaring this trade a disaster. The mainstream belief at this point is the Twins traded their fan-favorite invaluable relief arm for five starts of Chris Paddack. What people seem to have missed is that in acquiring Paddack, the Twins were actually acquiring his services through 2024. This fact doesn’t help them currently, but it provides plenty of time for the right-hander to make good on the Twins attempt to acquire a valuable starting pitcher. Tommy John is still a dreaded announcement in baseball, but it’s not the boogeyman it once was. Even for players who have required it multiple times as Chris Paddack has, full recoveries have become the norm. This list includes Nate Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Drew Rasmussen, and many more. In addition to the overall effectiveness of the procedure, more and more cases have emerged where the pitcher returns in a much shorter time than what would have been expected even just a few years ago. Look no further than the Twins own Blayne Enlow in the minors who’s back on the mound after tearing his UCL about 10 months ago. In Paddack’s case, no timeline has been announced yet. The word on the street however is the Twins almost exclusively defer to a new procedure when it comes to their players which expects a 9-12 month recovery rather than the traditional 12-18. We may not have anything concrete yet, but it’s entirely possible that Chris Paddack is still able to return for a good chunk of 2023 and all of 2024. The context of the trade in which the Twins are now without the starting pitcher they wanted and without their best bullpen arm isn’t great, but in the aggregate, this trade still has the potential to be lopsided in their favor when all is said and done. Despite a high walk rate which we hope Pagán will iron out, he appears to have improved in multiple areas including strikeouts and limiting hard contact, and he’s controlled for two years. Paddack looked to have made improvements prior to injury that he could hopefully continue building off when once again healthy. Make no mistake, I loved the value of this deal at the time it was announced and personally I’d hit the “undo” button at this point. Any time a player is acquired who almost immediately loses their entire season to injury, it’s safe to say things didn’t go your way. It’s also entirely fair to question why the Twins were even engaging in talks for a pitcher with a well known partially torn UCL. That being said, there is no “undo” button. There’s nothing wrong with saying this trade is bad, but such statements have to include an understanding that we’re far from done here. If Paddack comes back and provides a year and a half of the performance he showed in his first few starts, the Twins still nailed this one overall, even if it may cost them in 2022. So what do you think? Is there still the potential we look back at some point and say the Twins won this trade? Without Rogers for this year does it even matter? Let us know below. — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins likely felt they were getting a closing candidate in return from the Taylor Rogers trade. In their defense, they weren’t wrong. For Emilio Pagán to remain in the high-leverage mix, however, he has a massive issue to fix. If you’ve watched every outing of Emilio Pagán’s this season, you’re probably in a constant state of indigestion at this point. Time and time again he’s been trusted with high leverage after Tyler Duffey ceded such opportunities early in the season. Time and time again he’s flirted with disaster. Pagán’s struggles are no secret: Every time he takes the mound the opponent gets one free base runner at the very least. Pagán’s free passes have spiraled out of control in his last 6 outings in particular, in which he’s issued nine walks in 5 2/3 innings. To this point, he’s gotten the job done, although this stretch includes two saves recorded on full counts with bases loaded in one-run games, while another involved runners on 2nd and 3rd. After watching such outings, it’s fair to wonder when Pagán’s luck is going to run out. Emilio Pagán was always something of a reclamation project for the Twins after being acquired on Opening Day. After shining in Tampa Bay’s bullpen, he posted ERAs north of 4.50 in 2020 and 2021 in San Diego and quickly fell out of favor with the Padres. In San Diego, Pagán’s strikeouts dropped considerably from a 36% rate to a rate of about 26% during his two years with the Padres. More notably, Pagán started getting absolutely crushed. All of his quality of contact measurements such as hard-hit rate, barrels etc. cratered. Home runs became his Achilles Heel, although his walk rates still remained respectable at 10.3% in 2020 and just 6.8% in 2021. So where does Pagán’s near 25% walk rate come from in 2022? Before any trade talk even started, Pagán noted that he had planned to start throwing a splitter he learned from former all-star closer Kirby Yates this season. Long just a fastball/cutter pitcher, it sounded like a great idea as his lack of variety in his repertoire likely led to his loud contact issues. His early returns are good as the pitch has a 40% whiff rate and he has yet to allow a hit on it. It’s worth wondering however whether this new pitch has thrown him off his game a bit. This could be a case where the new splitter is directly accounting for more balls in Pagán’s appearances. The pitch is rarely actually in the strike zone, and all it takes is a scouting report and the ability to recognize it’s not a fastball or cutter, and hitters can sit back and watch it go by. It’s also worth noting that individual pitches can actually affect a pitcher’s overall repertoire. Chris Paddack is famous for losing a tremendous amount of ride on his fastball in San Diego after adding his curveball. Whether it’s psychological or physical, adding a pitch isn’t always just a plug-and-play situation. At any rate, Pagán appears to be making significant strides in the direction of becoming a valuable reliever again… except the disastrous walk rate. His whiffs are fantastic, his quality of contact has been much improved, and he now possesses a pitch mix that should conceivably be able to get hitters out on both sides of the plate. The question is whether he can once again figure out how to throw strikes. If not, all of his improvements become a moot point, as sooner or later his free passes will start crossing home plate. For a pitcher with a 7% career walk rate, it may be worth betting on Pagán’s recent issues being a blip on the radar rather than a crippling problem developed at the age of 31 after six seasons in the MLB. That being said, it’s a problem that needs to be fixed ASAP, and likely shouldn’t be done in the 9th inning with games on the line. The streak of “effectiveness” we’ve recently seen keeps looking more and more like good luck, and carrying these issues into the remaining four and a half months of the season simply will not end well. Emilio Pagán is doing a lot right, but it’s what he’s doing wrong that’s drawing the most attention. Can he get his walks under control or will his improvements from the last two years be wasted by too many free passes? — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Some say you learn more from losing than from winning. 2021 in that case should have provided the Twins with an exorbitant amount of knowledge. Will we see them learn from their 2021 meltdown? On Wednesday night in Baltimore, Dylan Bundy took away any possibility of a Twins win for the second straight start. While recording just 11 outs, Bundy surrendered 11 hits, two walks, two home runs, and nine earned runs. For the second straight start, he allowed a string of five-plus hitters to reach base safely without recording an out, a feat that’s rare enough to wonder whether it could possibly be a fluke. After dazzling in his first three starts, Bundy has absolutely cratered his season line. The result of this is a reality check for Twins fans on a pitcher who’s failing to crack 90 mph and posted an ERA over 6.00 in 2021. Having signed for $5m, Bundy should have never been expected to provide premium innings, even after his first three starts. The question is whether the Twins' front office has received this same reality check. The issues were plentiful for the 2021 Twins, but starting pitching was arguably #1 on the list. The signings of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, whom the Twins had identified as values in the offseason, turned out to be two of the worst pitchers in all of baseball and provided the Twins with a predetermined loss every 4th and 5th day. Despite this fact, Shoemaker remained in the rotation until the end of June and Happ remained until he was somehow traded at the deadline. Both proved that pitching signings of their tier simply don’t warrant a whole lot of patience. Neither has a job in Major League Baseball in 2022. Context is key in this scenario, as by the time they need to move on became abundantly clear, the Twins season was effectively over already. The farm system also suffered from a wide range of pitching injuries, leaving the Twins with several bullpen days per week and no replacement options for the rotation. In short, the goal became crossing off innings rather than filling them in a meaningful way. In 2022, things have to be different. Two starts make up just a small percentage of a pitcher’s season-long workload, and plenty of high-quality arms will struggle for such a short stretch. For that reason it’s not yet time to make any significant moves with Dylan Bundy. That being said, it is time for the Twins to feel some skepticism towards the 29-year-old right-hander. After watching three starts and wondering whether any kind of success could continue given Bundy’s visible lack of stuff, these last two starts may be the beginning of our answer. Unlike 2021, the Twins simply have too many alternatives to allow Bundy to become a deciding factor in their 2022 season. Their financial commitment to him is too low, as are the odds of him factoring into any long-term plans. With him headed to the COVID IL, we should get to see more from Josh Winder for another start or two, although it’s very likely Bundy gets a chance to reclaim his spot in the rotation. In the meantime, if Josh Winder continues to stake his claim to a rotation spot, it may leave the Twins set up to act quickly if Bundy doesn’t rebound. For what it’s worth, they’ve shown early signs of learning from their mistakes in 2021. After sticking with Alex Colomé through one of the worst months by a reliever in franchise history, the Twins were very quick to pull the plug on Tyler Duffey in high leverage this season after his early struggles. I would guess their lack of patience with a homegrown former staple of their bullpen foreshadows a very short leash for a one-year bounceback candidate in the rotation. At this point one thing is certain, Dylan Bundy is currently the last man on the totem pole that is the Twins rotation. The wounds that 2021 left in Twins Territory are still fresh in the minds of fans as many already wonder “How many more starts can we let this happen?”. For a front office that was seemingly so eager to show off the arrival of their pitching pipeline, my best bet would be “Not much longer” as the Twins attempt to make a worst to first rebound in 2022. How long of a leash should Dylan Bundy get? — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Long considered a two-pitch pitcher, Chris Paddack appeared to be far from the high-end arm the Twins needed when they shipped off Taylor Rogers on Opening Day. In the young stages of the 2022 season, however, Paddack is showing that it may be time to recalibrate expectations. Chris Paddack burst onto the scene in 2019 posting a 3.33 ERA in San Diego over about 140 innings. He paired a dominant mid to high-90s fastball with a plus-plus changeup and fantastic command to put together a rookie campaign that hinted at a future ace-level pitcher. Over the next two years, however, Paddack came to find that the MLB is unforgiving toward starting pitchers with only two pitches. And so he went to work. Contrary to popular belief, Paddack wasn’t quite a two-pitch pitcher in 2021. He had incorporated a curveball 12% of the time and had fantastic results on the pitch. His 5+ ERA finish was instead a result of an underperforming fastball, although you could argue that Paddack wasn’t throwing the breaking ball nearly enough which could have helped the performance of the rest of his repertoire. Luckily, Paddack appears to have made significant adjustments to both pitches. This small change should pay off twofold. On one hand, getting the fastball away from the heart of the plate is always a good idea. Also consider the fact that he’s upped his breaking ball usage to over 20% so far, meaning it’s harder to look fastball. Mixing in more breaking balls typically makes any fastball more effective, but now that he has one to pair with a devastating changeup, his fastball at the top of the zone should be that much harder to get around on. We’ve seen early signs of hitters already having difficulties with this change. While it’s admittedly a small sample size, Paddack’s better overall performance appears to be tied to his once broken fastball making a huge rebound. After batters hit .314 on the pitch in 2021, they’re posting a .250 mark so far this year. More impressively, after allowing a .531 slugging % on the pitch last season, hitters have posted a .357 mark so far in 2022. This is all despite the fact that his average fastball velocity is down from 94.8 to 92.9 this year after a shortened spring and pitching in colder weather. It’s possible the pitch may actually improve as the season rolls on. The biggest Chris Paddack storyline to keep an eye on however is his development of yet another pitch. As a fastball/changeup pitcher for most of his career, Paddack has posted fantastic reverse splits as we often see with pitchers whose primary offspeed is a changeup. Holding left-handers to a .226/.273/.408 line is impressive for a right-handed pitcher, but in Paddack’s case his lack of an equalizer for right-handed hitters has resulted in them posting a healthy .742 OPS against him. Luckily it appears the Twins were two steps ahead on this one. In his third start with the Twins, Paddack threw what Statcast calls a cutter seven times. Whether it’s a cutter or a slider, this would really round out Paddack’s repertoire with a pitch that traditionally stifles right-handed pitching. It’s too small of a sample to draw any conclusions from the pitch, but the fact of the matter is if Paddack can make any strides in limiting right-handed hitters, it’s not hard to see him being one of the leaders in the rotation for the next three years. It was easy to question parting with Taylor Rogers for a struggling Chris Paddack at the time, but it’s become very clear in this early season that the Twins did so with a very specific plan in mind. At 26 years old after a few tough seasons, Paddack appears to still have the raw talent that once earned him the reputation as one of the up-and-coming stud pitchers in baseball. With a change in scenery, a change in pitch sequencing, and possibly a new trick or two up his sleeve, Chris Paddack could become the high-end pitcher fans were calling for all offseason. Do you agree? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins offense has been a massive disappointment as a whole. Looking across the lineup, it’s hard to find much to be impressed with. This is also the case for Trevor Larnach, but taking a deeper dive tells a much different story. The tale of Trevor Larnach’s debut is not uncommon among big-time hitting prospects. He came up and punished major-league fastballs until he was fed a steady diet of breaking pitches. At that point not even his hot start could keep Larnach from taking a trip back to St. Paul where his season eventually ended with an injury. In his short stint in AAA to end 2021, Larnach didn’t have much time to get his footing back and work to adjust back to MLB pitching which had pinpointed his Achilles Heel. The left-handed slugger swung and missed at 54% of the breaking balls he saw. Unsurprisingly, he hit just .167 and slugged .218 against such pitches. It was fitting that he was slated to spend a chunk of time in St. Paul to begin the year before Alex Kirilloff landed on the IL. In short, Larnach is once again receiving the “trial by fire” treatment. At first glance, Larnach appears to be failing miserably, as his slash line of .190/.192/.174 appears to fit right in with a Twins 1-9 that ranks as one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. Unlike his lineup mates, however, Larnach is doing everything right to start his second MLB season. Has it felt like Larnach regularly punishes baseballs that just so happen to wind up in a defender's glove? It should, because that’s exactly what’s happening. Statcast data suggests Larnach has been the unluckiest hitter in the Twins lineup. So far he’s increased his barrel rate from 9.5% to 10.5% from last year. His .240 expected batting average is more than acceptable when paired with a .473 expected slugging percentage. Mix in his tremendous eye at the plate and a decrease in his swing and miss rate from 34.6% to 19.2% and the Twins have what looks like a middle-of-the-order bat who’s gotten unlucky across a couple of weeks. So how do we know Larnach isn’t off to just another hot streak that’s destined to crash back down like last year? The early returns on Larnach’s ability to hit breaking balls are unbelievable. Pitchers have continued feeding him spinners as his scouting report likely calls for. According to just about every measurement, Larnach’s ability to not only make contact but to barrel such pitches has made a dramatic improvement. The Twins admittedly don’t have a lot to get excited about in their lineup at the moment as most hitters are either making poor contact or no contact at all. Trevor Larnach is different. After showing a crippling weakness in his MLB debut, the former first-round pick appears to have made a measurable change in approach that simply hasn’t quite paid off yet in this young season. Despite his poor surface numbers, I’d argue Larnach is showing more at the plate than most of the lineup thus far. The Twins are struggling to score any runs at all and even just one player really clicking would really make a world of difference. So far the numbers say Trevor Larnach could be such a player. Do you agree? View full article

In case you haven’t heard, Miguel Sano has begun his yearly early season slump. As he struggles to contribute anything at all to an offense that has been inconsistent at best, what can the Twins do with Miguel Sano? The offense as a whole has failed to match a surprisingly strong start to the season for the Twins pitching staff. Few hitters have shown any kind of consistency, but it’s plenty easy to key in on right-handed slugger Miguel Sano. Every year it’s seemingly the same with Sano. Struggle for the first month or two, make some adjustments, iron out the timing at the plate and finish the season looking like everything has been fixed only for the same cycle to be repeated again. Perhaps in a touching tribute to the banning of pitchers hitting in the NL, Sano has been particularly terrible to begin the season in 2022. Yes, Miguel Sano is yet again approaching the record books after becoming the fastest player in Major League history to 1000 strikeouts at the end of 2021. Through six games it’s been particularly frustrating to watch, which has fans already wondering: What can we do with Miguel Sano? Cut Him As is tradition, the calls to cut Miguel Sano or try to send him to AAA have already erupted. The latter scenario is downright unrealistic. Sano would have to essentially be cut and re-signed in agreement with going to St. Paul, a situation that would never play out. Another team would surely pick Sano up on the league minimum, and he would most certainly prefer to play in the MLB elsewhere than in AAA here. Some would call this an upgrade to the team, but there aren’t any legitimate replacements at first base. Alex Kirilloff is out for the foreseeable future after his recurring wrist issue flared up and players like Jose Miranda who have some experience at first base aren’t the kind of player you ship a veteran out for. Not to mention the fact that the Twins likely would never pay the $9.25m remaining on his deal to play elsewhere. Bench Him An adjustment is likely in order for Sano to catch up to fastballs and barrel up breaking balls again. So why not have him work exclusively on making adjustments with the coaching staff in an environment where he’s not dragging down the lineup? Even if the Twins had an obvious short-term replacement at first base, Sano’s main issue is timing. Perhaps it is a mechanical tweak that helps him lock-in, but tee work isn’t going to do him much good. We saw in 2019 when Sano was struggling to keep his strikeout rate below 40% for the first two months that he benefits from working through his timing issues by getting his reps in during games. There isn’t much substitute for live pitching when it comes to a player with such significant swing and miss tendencies. Ride It Out This leads to the most likely option, the Twins are likely going to ride this out. After all, Sano has shown time and time again that their patience will pay itself off. Taking an at-bat away from Miguel Sano is taking him one step further from breaking out and being one of the better hitters in the lineup for at least some period of time. The second halves of his seasons are always better than the first, and at some point, he’s going to return to being a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. Is it an ideal scenario to have a player with such crippling gaps in production in the lineup? No. I’d guess the Twins' front office would go back in time and undo the extension they signed Sano to if given the opportunity. It’s also hard to imagine a scenario where they pick up his $14m option for 2023. That being said, Miguel Sano is likely here for 2022 for better or worse. We’ve been watching him since 2015. It’s time to be realistic about the Miguel Sano situation. He’s going to be beyond frustrating until he’s on one of the most ungodly heaters we’ll see from a player this season. It may hurt the Twins' season tremendously, or perhaps he’ll play a large part in them returning to the postseason. Be as frustrated as you’d like, but Miguel Sano likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. View full article

So the day before the season starts the Twins traded away the head of their bullpen and supposed closer. Taylor Rogers made up half of the projected fWAR of the Twins bullpen per Fangraphs. What was the front office thinking? By now we’re all probably approaching the end of the grieving stage of losing Taylor Rogers in a massive Opening Day deal that brought Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to Minnesota. That being said, it’s probably time to consider why on earth the Twins would trade away their star closer at the start of a season in which they intend to compete. The Pursuit of Value By now we’ve come to expect the Twins front office to always search for value above all else when they’re making any kind of deal. In fairness, their successes across the last year are few and far between, but it’s easy to see the thought process they’re operating from. In parting with Rogers, the Twins give up one year of a relief pitcher who may not even finish the season with the team if things fall apart before the trade deadline. In return, they receive a rotation-ready starting pitcher in Chris Paddack who’s under control for three years in addition to reliever Emilio Pagan who’s under control for two years. They did of course also ship out Brent Rooker, but by all accounts, he was likely on the verge of getting cut loose regardless. When looking at pure value, it’s hard to argue against this trade. There’s almost no scenario where Rogers amasses more bWAR, fWAR, or whatever measurement you can find in his lone season in San Diego than Paddack and Pagan will in Minnesota across their five combined years. The math is certainly on the Twins' side for this trade. This however doesn’t tell the whole story as it misses the context of the Twins parting with their best reliever right before a 2022 season where they may desperately need him Relievers are Unpredictable Another core value of the Falvine era, the Twins simply don’t value relief pitchers highly. And to be honest, they probably shouldn’t. Relievers often burn bright for a few years before fading away. We see it year after year whether it’s Alex Colomé just stinking it up out of nowhere or Trevor Rosenthal succumbing to injury. Pitchers as a whole are always risky, but historically speaking relievers are particularly fickle. Taylor Rogers may repeat his incredible performance in 2022, in fact, I’d bet on it. That being said, he did suffer a significant finger injury in 2021. Although he’s recovered and was looking great in the spring, he’s now into his 30s and the odds of a recurrence or even a new injury grows ever stronger. Is that reason for the Twins to look to actively dump their closer? No. But it does at least help explain why Rogers wasn’t untouchable in trade. In addition to the risk of Rogers' performance or health slipping, it’s entirely possible several other arms step up in a big way to fill the void. Between pitchers such as Jorge Alcala who appeared to break out in the second half or newly bullpen-bound Jhoan Duran sitting in triple digits, it’s not hard to find candidates to take the lead in this group. Between AAA and the existing bullpen, there are several options to get some looks in high leverage and I see several taking the baseball world by storm in 2022. This group is undisputedly more talented than the bullpen the Twins fielded at the end of 2021 who by the way were rock solid without Taylor Rogers in the mix. To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with hating this trade. The self-anointed “competitive” Twins roster just got a huge downgrade in their bullpen on paper no matter how you shake it. In addition, this could have been avoided had they just been more aggressive in signing legitimate starting pitching pre-lockout. Even for one year of Taylor Rogers, the Twins are taking a gamble on Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan bouncing back. It’s one that’s not so different from the many bets the front office made last season that left them bankrupt. That being said, aside from the personal attachment that comes with losing a homegrown star like Rogers, it’s easy to understand why the Twins made this deal. There’s a decent chance that we look back on this trade as a “win” for the Twins, and there’s a non-zero chance it can turn out to be an absolute home run. Should the Twins have stood pat with Rogers or perhaps asked for more in return? Do you think this deal will work out for the Twins in the long run? Let us know below! View full article