Cody Pirkl

The Twins have completed several rounds of roster cuts this spring with another handful to go. Still, several non-roster invitees remain in camp and have a legitimate shot at making the Opening Day roster. The Twins are down to just six non-roster players remaining on their spring roster. Several players were sent to minor-league camp so that they can head up to Minnesota this weekend. The Saints season starts on Tuesday in Louisville. The six non-roster players remaining in the big-league camp include left-handed pitchers Devin Smeltzer and Danny Coulombe, right-handed pitcher Jake Faria, infielder Daniel Robertson, and outfielders Kyle Garlick and Jake Cave. While there are certainly several good reasons to not add non-roster players to the 40-man roster knowing that the active roster will drop back to 26 players by May 1st. However, here are three players that I think do have a realistic opportunity to make the Twins Opening Day roster. Jake Faria Jake Faria had limited success in Tampa Bay’s rotation all the way back in 2017 when he posted a 3.43 ERA across just under 90 innings in his debut. After bouncing around for a while and not pitching in 2020, the right-hander finds himself as a realistic bullpen option for the Twins on Opening Day. With the lockout leading up to a short Spring Training ramp-up, the Twins are likely to employ some sort of “piggyback” method to start the season to allow the rotation to ramp up and remain healthy. Faria has been used in a multi-inning role this spring which could be a hint that the Twins may be taking a look at him to fill such a piggybacking role. He’s allowed just one run in his five spring innings and his mix of a split-finger and breaking ball could make him more prepared to navigate the entirety of a lineup than a traditional right-handed pitcher with just a fastball and slider. While no sure thing, Faria is a name to watch in the waning days of Spring Training. Kyle Garlick Kyle Garlick could make the 2022 roster again in the same role as 2021 as the backup right-handed masher in the outfield. Ideally the Twins would give him all of Max Kepler’s at bats against left-handers, against whom Garlick posted an incredible .878 OPS in 2021 before being shut down with a core muscle injury. The counter argument is it would come at the expense of Brent Rooker’s roster spot, who is a home--grown talent and some feel still has a ceiling higher than a platoon bat such as Garlick. That said, Rooker hasn't played in a game for a week with a shoulder soreness, so an IL stint is possible. Since the two right-handers are fairly equal on defense, the Twins could easily see Garlick as the obvious option. In addition to his 2021, Garlick has absolutely punished southpaws during his entire career, posting an incredible .865 OPS against them thus far. It may take giving up on Brent Rooker, but the immediate payoff of Garlick being the matchup role player in the outfield seems like a sure bet to provide some value. Jake Cave The Twins just can’t seem to quit Jake Cave. Thus far he’s outlasted Trevor Larnach and Gilberto Celestino in camp with only a few more cuts to make. It’s hard to imagine the squad heading north with the 29-year-old Cave who owns a paltry .202/.263/.332 (.595) slash line since the start of 2020, especially since Nick Gordon’s ability to fill in at center field from the left side of the plate makes him redundant. That being said, the fact that he’s still with the team is worth wondering whether Cave may just stick around. In Cave’s favor, he has logged 144 games in center field in his career, a resume that the Twins may value given Byron Buxton’s injury history. He’s also improved defensively over the years, performing around league average on defense in 2020 and 2021 at the position. Another left handed bat in the outfield may not make much sense on paper, especially one you would expect absolutely nothing from offensively. That being said, Cave’s ability to man center field may be seen as a worthy trade off compared to someone like Kyle Garlick who only fills a very specific role offensively and is confined to the corners. The cuts are likely coming in short order with only a few decisions left to be made. Are there any other remaining non roster invitees that could sneak their way into Target Field on Opening Day? Let us know below! View full article

The Twins still haven’t acquired another starting pitcher as Opening Day nears. With only a few fringe free-agent options even available to fill the fifth rotation spot, fans have called for adding yet another rookie to the rotation when the season begins. This may be a mistake. Josh Winder gained a lot of prospect steam last season as he performed incredibly well at Double-A with a sub 2.00 ERA in 50+ innings before getting promoted to Triple-A. He may have been well on his way to his MLB debut before being shut down with shoulder issues, but he looks healthy and effective so far this spring. Winder finds himself in the conversation for a rotation spot due to what can only be described as a massive disappointment in regards to the Twins addressing their rotation this winter. They currently have four starting pitchers penciled in with Opening Day less than two weeks away. Led by Sonny Gray, the rest of the rotation consists of reclamation project Dylan Bundy and two rookies in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, the latter of which has only five MLB starts under his belt. The fifth spot at this point is unspoken for. Candidates include Devin Smeltzer who isn't currently on the 40 man roster. Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax have been moved into bullpen roles but could find themselves competing due to a lack of other options. Then of course we have Josh Winder who has yet to debut. It’s fair to grab ahold of the shiny new prospect when reading that list of names. The other three, of course, have all had their opportunities and haven’t exactly flourished. It’s absolutely possible that the Twins see this decision the same way if they fail to bring in one more arm. It’s worth noting that Winder winding up in the Opening Day rotation, however, should be viewed with much more disappointment than excitement. From Minnesota to the rest of the league, rookie pitchers fail all the time (or at least most often) in their debut. It should almost be expected at this point. Some need a bit more time in the minors such as when Jose Berrios debuted with his 8+ ERA. Others just never figure it out despite being highly touted all throughout the minors such as Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero. It’s important to remember this not just to be pessimistic, but to keep expectations in check. Winder hadn’t pitched above A ball until 2021 when he posted those 54 2/3 innings in AA, and not only did he put up only 17 innings in AAA, but they weren’t all that effective. His K% fell from 31.3% to 22.4%. He allowed two home runs in those 17 innings and posted a 4.67 ERA before being shut down. Surely a small sample size, but not exactly a performance that screams “MLB ready”. The point being, if the Twins don’t add another starting pitcher to the roster and go with Winder right out of the gate, they may very well be following up an offseason failure with a decision that damages one of their top pitching prospects as well as their season. They’d likely be better off mixing and matching with arms they know everything about than a rookie pitcher who hasn’t shown he’s quite MLB ready yet. Winder would make a great Plan B for any struggling or injured arms after the season begins assuming he’s doing reasonably well in St. Paul. It’s fair to assume that he makes his debut in some way in 2022. It just shouldn’t be as the third rookie starting pitcher on an Opening Day roster that considers themselves contenders. Am I just a thief of joy, or do you agree? Leave your COMMENTS below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Lewis Thorpe may be a long forgotten name in the minds of Twins fans, but in 2022 he has one last chance to make things work in Minnesota. Is there any chance he can revive his Twins career? After breaking into the big leagues and filling some important innings in 2019, Lewis Thorpe looked like a future rotation piece for the Major League club. He led AAA in K/9 and while he posted a 6.18 ERA in 27 2/3 MLB innings, his underlying numbers looked like he got unlucky. Unfortunately, 2020 proved those analytics wrong, as Thorpe posted a 6.06 ERA in just over 16 innings during the COVID-shortened season with underlying numbers to match. Thorpe failed to even eat innings in his outings as his BB/9 matched his K/9 at 5.5, and he soon became passed over on the rotational depth chart. 2021 was odd in the sense that Thorpe should have been a make-or-break player out of Spring Training before MLB granted the Twins an extra year of team control (a fourth option year) due to injuries early in his career. This allowed the Twins to option him to AAA to reset and try to work his way back up. Unfortunately, Thorpe still failed to impress in his 15 MLB innings in 2021, as he had a higher BB/9 (4.1) and ERA (4.70) than K/9 (3.52). So why are we still talking about Lewis Thorpe? This spring is make-or-break for Thorpe, as he’s unable to be optioned if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. He could be on the fringes of the 40-man roster as is and could even be cut loose if the Twins make enough moves in the coming weeks. That being said, Thorpe possibly sticking around in a bullpen role should raise some eyebrows for those that remember the talent the lefty flashed early in his career. The most confusing trend of Thorpe’s downhill trajectory is his fastball velocity. During his three MLB seasons, his fastball has dipped from 91.4 mph to 89.9 mph to 89.1 mph in 2021. He’s had a few shoulder ailments along the way which would help explain this dropoff, but at no point since 2019 has he even regularly hit 90 mph. It’s fair to call this the root of Thorpe’s problems, as sub 90 mph fastballs rarely play at the MLB level and the lack of separation in velocity affects the secondary pitches as well. What we know about moves to the bullpen is it often gives pitchers a nice velocity boost. The Twins bullpen has a foundation of players who’ve seen this play out such as Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers. It’s hard to imagine Thorpe recreating himself as a flamethrower coming out of the pen, but he showed that even sitting around 91 mph as he did in his rookie season is enough to rack up strikeouts and get the best of hitters. It’s not unheard of for pitchers to find success after struggling mightily early in their careers. At 26 years old, Thorpe could still have plenty in the tank if something clicks. An immediate plan for a bullpen role may keep him fresher and healthier without a starter's workload which he’s struggled to shoulder thus far in his career. Letting his stuff play up in shorter stints may be the ticket for the Australian left-hander who averaged well over a strikeout per inning his entire minor league career as well as in his MLB debut. The fact that Thorpe has remained on the Twins 40 man roster this long suggests the team believes he may prove to be worth it. 2022 is the season we all find out. Do you believe Lewis Thorpe can once again become a contributor for the Twins? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Mitch Garver has established himself as one of the core pieces of the Twins offense the last few years. With that in mind, it may be time for the Twins to start putting more effort into setting Garver up for long term success. Catcher is a difficult position both physically and mentally. Manning the backstop is what cost one of the all-time great Twins in Joe Mauer so dearly in his prime. Even if Mauer had avoided the concussion that resulted in his move to first base, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where he would have prematurely declined due to the demands of his position. The Twins may want to try to avoid a similar scenario when it comes to Mitch Garver. Garver is far from the typical catcher in today’s baseball environment. Regulars at the position are typically expected to provide strong defense and adequately call a game for a pitching staff. If they can hold their own offensively that’s just a bonus. Garver on the other hand is a bat-first catcher. He’s far from terrible defensively and has made great strides in things like framing where he ranked in the 93rd percentile in 2021. He may not win any gold gloves but he doesn’t have to given his ability in the batter’s box. Not only has he been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons, but he’s also been flat-out incredible in two of them. Garver uses a mastery of the strike zone to lay off borderline pitches and force pitchers into making mistakes. His 2019 was argued as the best offensive season by a catcher since Mike Piazza when he was 55% above league average offensively and nearly put up 4 fWAR in under 400 plate appearances. It’s possible his disastrous 2020 where he posted a .167/.247/.264 line was injury-related, as in 2021 he returned to form hitting .256/.358/.517, good for 37% above the league average hitter. It’s become clear that Garver shouldn’t be valued just for his offensive skills as a catcher, but for his offensive skills in general. With other candidates for the position debuting such as Ryan Jeffers and Ben Rortvedt, perhaps it’s time to better set Garver up for success moving forward. Garver has played first base to some extent in every season of his career, although his career-high in innings at the position is 24 in 2017. Still, it may benefit the Twins to make a more concerted effort to get Garver time at a less physically demanding position. Not only is his concussion history worrisome, but it’s fair to wonder at 31 how soon the wear and tear throughout the season could begin to impact his ability to perform at the plate. Besides injury risk, moving Garver even part-time off of catcher could make him available in the lineup more often while allowing Rortvedt and Jeffers to get more exposure. Jeffers in particular was held down in 2021 by getting the bulk of at-bats against right-handers in order to allow Garver to crush lefties whenever possible. It was a tough ask of a rookie and Jeffers understandably struggled at the plate seeing almost exclusively same-handed pitching. Alex Kirilloff will be back in 2022 hopefully as the everyday first baseman with Miguel Sano rotating in. Still, Kirilloff will likely see some outfield innings and Sano and Garver can share first base and DH duties. In the last two seasons, Sano has inexplicably been well below league average against left-handed pitching, an area you can always expect Garver to excel in. If those trends continue, Garver could just overtake Sano’s at-bats altogether. Much like the eternal question “How will we find enough at-bats for Player X?” The question of how to fit Garver into DH or first base on occasion would work itself out if the Twins choose to go that route. The question is whether they decide it’s time to do so. I’d argue that it can only help. Garver’s bat will be all the more important without Nelson Cruz in 2022 and the skills that make him such a force on offense should be able to age gracefully if he can avoid injury. Is it time to start easing him off of his natural position to try to keep him effective at the plate longer? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Tyler Duffey has been a rock-solid addition to the Twins bullpen after failing to pan out in the rotation. At 31 years old with one year of control left, his time with the Twins may be nearing an end. Luckily they may have a ready-made replacement already in the majors. Tyler Duffey was drafted in the 5th round of the 2012 draft out of Rice. Despite spending much of his college career in the bullpen, the Twins were able to boost his fastball velocity and add a changeup to his already plus breaking ball, and make him a starter. After debuting in the Twins rotation, Duffey struggled and became an afterthought before eventually resurfacing in the bullpen. The right-hander of course used a change in fastball philosophy and his wipeout curveball to become one of the most underrated relievers in all of baseball during 2019-2020. 2021 was a bit shaky but Duffey has established himself as a reliable, high leverage reliever. The Twins should use Duffey’s successful blueprint on another arm who shares several similarities. Griffin Jax has been a starter throughout the minors and filled in for an ailing rotation during his 2021 debut. The Air Force Captain was never a top prospect and rarely posted above-average performances in the minors. Upon his debut, it was clear that Jax was a two-pitch pitcher, a trait that led to significant trouble navigating lineups multiple times. What wasn’t apparent until his debut is just how good one of his two pitches was. Eno Sarris, a prominent writer at The Athletic uses a pitching model called Pitching+ which measures velocity, movement, and spin to determine a pitcher’s “Stuff+” while measuring their ability to locate into “Location+”. A 100 grading is average for both metrics. Jax, due in large part to his slider, grades ahead of Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Bundy in Stuff+ at an above average 102.8. While the full pitch by pitch Pitching+ Model isn’t publicly available, Sarris has noted that Jax’s slider is one of the best pitches in baseball according to Stuff+. It’s fair to assume Jax’s fastball may hold him back with little movement and averaging under 93 mph. What he’s left with is a less than spectacular fastball to set up for a fantastic breaking ball. This approach likely doesn’t pan out well in the rotation, but could be more than enough to dominate in short stints as we’ve seen with Tyler Duffey. As fellow Twins Daily writer Cody Christie pointed out in January, Jax would slot into an opener role very well based on his success particularly in the first inning. It’s also fair to wonder however whether Jax could thrive in a short-term, high leverage role in the late innings. Similar to Duffey, Jax could add some velocity to his fastball and try to place it at the top of the zone to set up his devastating breaker. It’s become a common recipe for success for relievers across baseball. The Twins bullpen has a lot of uncertainty between Taylor Rogers’ finger, Tyler Duffey’s 2021 struggles, and the question of whether both pitchers will even be on the Twins Opening Day roster. With the front office unlikely to add significant free agents to the bullpen mix, someone like Jax who’s already shown his abilities at the MLB level could easily climb the bullpen ladder throughout 2022 and find himself settled into a significant role by season’s end. Whether it’s opening games or closing them, Jax’s slider proving to be a cheat code of a pitch is a great development. With several high profile arms coming up with stronger chances of sticking in the rotation, the Twins developing deeper prospects such as Griffin Jax into possible bullpen pieces would be a huge development. Griffin Jax is an incredible story, but he’s elevated himself from a depth piece to a possible regular for the Twins in 2022. Do you agree? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The vacancies in the Twins rotation has fans hoping for a huge trade to bolster the starting staff before the season opens, and it’s easy to understand why. I’d argue however that now would be a terrible time to push all of the chips in. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober… Dylan Bundy… Folks, that’s your Minnesota Twins rotation at the time of this writing. After trading Jose Berrios and losing Kenta Maeda to injury, the starting pitching lacks depth, high-end talent, floor, etc. Despite this fact, 14 of the top 15 starting pitchers on the free-agent market signed with teams before the lockout without a single whisper of interest from the Twins front office. This development led some to call shenanigans on the organization's statement that they plan on competing in 2022. Plenty of fans still hold out hope however that the Twins have some enormous splashes left to make that will push the Twins back into the driver’s seat of the AL Central. There are several starting pitchers on the trade market that would instantly become the leaders of the Twins rotation. Luis Castillo, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas to name a few that have been thrown around in hypotheticals. One such hypothetical was just recently proposed by TwinsDaily’s own Nash Walker: The package here is steep but fair, as right-hander Frankie Montas has two years of control and finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2021. In acquiring Montas, the Twins would part with Luis Arraez who is controlled through 2026 in addition to recently acquired Drew Strotman, former 1st round pick Keoni Kavaco, and Jhoan Duran whose triple-digit arm suffered an injury in 2021 but made it to AAA. Such a deal would cost the Twins in the present while leaving them open to get burned in the future, as these trades are often composed. Such a deal should raise questions, the first of which being “Does this move push the Twins over the top?”. To which I would argue “not even close”. The Twins had two front-end starters in 2021 in Berrios and Kenta Maeda for most of the season and finished in dead last place in the worst division in baseball. With a similar returning lineup (without Nelson Cruz) and a bullpen that likely won’t have any significant additions, it could be argued that the Twins are paying top dollar just to get halfway to where they were at the beginning of a disastrous 2021. Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan will certainly have a huge role in how the rotation performs, but to push the chips in while leaning so heavily on two rookies totaling well under 200 career innings would be quite the gamble. The pair would need to replicate their 2021 performances if not improve upon them to set the foundation of the Twins 2022 rotation. It’s certainly possible both are up to the task, but with such little track record and an offseason of scouting reports, it’s fair to expect some turbulence from the two rookies. It may be more realistic and fair to expect these two to perform closer to #4 starting pitchers than the rotation leaders the Twins need to make a Frankie Montas pairing worth their while. The other consideration in regards to acquiring Frankie Montas is that he’s exactly where Jose Berrios was before 2021 with two years left under contract. What would stop the Twins from similarly shipping him out at the trade deadline if the team is struggling again come July? The return would certainly be less than the price they paid in the preseason. If the Twins do in fact struggle in 2022 and hold onto Montas for the following year, he could definitely become a huge piece of the rotation in 2023 where it’s much easier to see the Twins returning to contention. That being said, they’ll have paid top dollar for two years of a premier arm and only get one meaningful season from him. In short, the Twins have a ton of question marks heading into 2022. In order to truly feel good about the rotation they probably needed at least two legitimate starting pitching additions. There are few impact options left in free agency and it’s hard to imagine them swinging two enormous trades to make up for it. What the Twins have now is a rotation problem that doesn’t come close to being solved by one big move. There are moves to be made in free agency and admittedly they could very well hit on some lower-profile additions. The lineup and bullpen could also shine bright enough to pick up some slack from the rotation. It’s hard to look at the roster and say this is the likelier scenario, however. Given the hoops we have to jump through to imagine a contender in 2022, wouldn’t it make more sense to be prudent before Opening Day and respond accordingly at the July trade deadline? It may be the anti-fun stance, but it would be a shame to see the Twins mortgage their future for a huge addition that doesn’t pay off. Especially with so many high-end prospects nearing the Major Leagues. Of all the times to acquire a huge starting pitcher the last few years, right now may be riskiest with the least amount of possible payoff. The Twins shouldn’t be looking to go all-in on an ace. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

I think you overestimate our pitching prospects if you're that comfortable saying they can just come up and post a mid 4s ERA. Not only are they not likely to do that, but they're also going to have severe innings limits. If they paid Kikuchi that money and he posted 160+ innings of a 4.50 ERA he's probably this FOs 2nd best SP signing ever and would definitely make the team better.

The Twins have a lot to sort out when free agency reopens, but they need to establish a base to their offseason after failing to do so before the lockout. Three moves in particular would go a long way in improving the roster across the board and could be the beginning of a return to contention. Sign Yusei Kikuchi to a 2 year, $25m deal Kikuchi isn’t necessarily the best pitcher left in free agency, but the left-hander would make a great addition to the Twins rotation. At 30 years old, Kikuchi hasn’t been all that good in his three years in the league with over 350 innings and an ERA around 5.00. The lefty has obvious talent, however, averaging over 95mph on the fastball in 2021 with a wicked slider that resulted in dominant stretches. Kikuchi wouldn’t break the bank and has number 2-3 upside, but even as is he would go a long way in rehabbing a pitching needy roster. Striking out a batter per inning with a mid 4s ERA as he did in 2021 would slot in just fine, and coming near the 160 innings he’s averaged in his career would make a huge impact on a rotation that expects some young additions during the season. Even if there isn’t a tweak to be made, Kikuchi is the type of pitcher the Twins should be throwing money at for multiple years. Sign Richard Rodriguez to a 1 year, $3m deal I’ve long wanted to see Richard Rodriguez in a Twins jersey. It turned out paying up would have been a mistake, as Rodriguez turned into a bit of a pumpkin in 2021. His strikeout rate dropped by an incredible 20% despite nearly identical velocities year over year. The former Pirate’s closer lost effectiveness with his slider which led to his being non-tendered after a trade to Atlanta. He did still manage a sub 3.00 ERA, however. Relievers are volatile, but Rodriguez has shown no physical red flags at 31 years old which makes you wonder whether there’s just a small adjustment to make to his once dominant breaking ball. It would be a similar deal to what the Twins gave Hansel Robles in 2021, although Rodriguez is coming off a year where he was still a useful reliever. The right-hander was quietly one of the better closers in baseball in 2020 and could help lead a bullpen that will see several young arms debut and battle for jobs. Sign Trevor Story for to a 4 year, $92m deal The game of musical chairs is coming to an end in the free agent shortstop market, and Story may run out of options. With less leverage, Story shouldn’t need the 5+ year deals we’ve seen this offseason that the Twins are unlikely to sign. Still just 29, the Twins would still get Story in the prime of his career. Without a clear-cut shortstop on the way, Story would fill this historically problematic position for the foreseeable future rather than kicking the can down the road with another one year Andrelton Simmons type. In what was certainly a down year in 2021, Story still accumulated 3.5 Wins Above Replacement, which would have been third in Minnesota behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. He’s still always capable of a 30 home run, 30 steal season with a respectable on base ability and never having hit below .250. The right-handed slugger would be a huge addition to the already great lineup. Adding such a big bat would make the trade of another established hitter for pitching much easier to swallow. The Twins have much more work to do than just three moves, but these three in particular offer a good amount of floor as well as a ton of upside. The bullpen and offense/defense would considerably improve, and the hole in the rotation would shrink by adding an arm that could have a surprising payoff. As we all get fed up with the lockout that has no end in sight, there’s little left to do but dream on the flurry of moves that will absolutely follow. Are there any moves you’d like to see the Twins prioritize? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It’s been a long time since the Twins have had anything close to a franchise shortstop. After years of drafting and signing possible suitors, however, the Twins may have finally hit on a prospect who can one day man one of the weakest positions in their franchise history. The Twins opted to draft Noah Miller 36th overall in the 2021 draft after taking right-handed pitcher Chase Petty with their first pick. Petty got a deserved amount of hype for his triple-digit fastball and future upside as a stud pitcher, but Miller appears to have gotten overshadowed just a bit too much. Noah Miller boasts fantastic contact ability with a great eye at the plate, average speed, and developing power. He pairs his raw skills with highly touted athleticism and baseball IQ, all of which adds up to a fantastic floor even for a player drafted out of high school. His lack of standout offensive ability would give him the ceiling of a decent major league player if he has to move to a position like outfield or second base, but there appears to be more and more optimism in his ability to remain at shortstop. Miller falls into the mid-teens across most Twins prospect ranking lists. Keith Law of the Athletic, however, recently released his ranking of the Twins system and bumped Miller all the way up to 10. For those unfamiliar with Law, he’s recognized for being particularly pessimistic (or perhaps realistic) when it comes to ranking prospects. Law essentially believes in Miller’s safe offensive profile and more importantly his ability to play a sufficient shortstop. While Miller doesn’t have the ceiling to be the next Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wander Franco, Law believes Miller has an achievable ceiling as an everyday contributor at the position. An evaluator as highly regarded as Keith Law making such a statement should be exciting, and Twins fans in particular should have an appreciation for this possibility playing out. It seems to be a yearly tradition where the Twins either draft or internationally sign a significant number of shortstops and fans ask “Why?”. Despite the perception of casting a wide net at this position, the Twins have made little progress in developing any players who are anywhere near a lock to be the long-term answer. Typically we see these “shortstops” Make a pivot elsewhere on the diamond shortly thereafter. In regards to the history of the Minnesota Twins, Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop in consecutive Opening Days in 2019 and 2020. Before him Pedro Florimon earned that honor in 2013 and 2014. Since 2004 however when Christian Guzman made his 6th consecutive Opening Day start, the position has essentially been a revolving door. Miller may be a long way off from Major League action at just 19 years old, but his offensive skillset that made him a first round pick is also one that gives him a relatively good shot at an MLB career. Twins fans saw with Aaron Sabato in 2021 that even in the first round there’s significant risk with prospects that have a feast or famine slugger profile. While prospects are always risky, Miller’s contact ability alone may give him a slightly better chance of overcoming the minor league gauntlet over the next few years. The bar is admittedly set quite low when it comes to shortstops in Twins territory. That being said, if Noah Miller has a full 2022 of proving he can do it at shortstop, his notoriety is going to go through the roof. For as much flak as the Twins get for their pitching development, taking a first-round shortstop who actually pans out would be an incredible development for the organization. There are a lot of MLB-ready prospects to watch in 2022, but none have an opportunity to raise their stock quite as much as Noah Miller. We won’t see him in Minneapolis this summer, but we just may be talking about him as the future franchise shortstop by this time next year. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins had two rookies in their rotation at the end of the 2021 season that have fans understandably excited. There was a third rookie who just missed a 2021 debut, that just might be the best of the three. A 7th round pick in 2018, Josh Winder didn’t break into professional baseball at the top of Twins prospect lists. It would be understandable, in fact, if you hadn’t even heard his name until he really raised some eyebrows last spring. Winder reportedly made a lot of good progress during the canceled 2020 Minor League season, but it’s entirely possible he would have debuted long ago without the interruption. After totaling just under 40 innings pitched in his debut 2018 season, he topped 125 innings in 2019 at Cedar Rapids with decent strikeout numbers as well as an impressive avoidance of walks and home runs in A ball. 2021 showed Winder was far from what you’d expect out of a 7th round draft pick. In 54 innings at AA his strikeout rate eclipsed 31%. He walked under 5% of his batters faced and posted a 0.82 HR/9. His ERA was under 2. Upon his promotion to AAA, his strikeouts dropped a bit and home runs increased dramatically in a small sample before his season was cut short with shoulder fatigue. It was a disappointing end to 2021, especially for those hoping to see the 6’5 right-hander at Target Field by season’s end. Still, Winder showed enough to keep your eye on him in 2022. Winder has built up his prospect status since his selection in the draft. Scouts give him a 55 future grade fastball with 50 grades for his slider, curveball, and changeup. His pitch mix shows a lot of promise when it comes to sticking in a rotation. He may not have quite the fastball command of Joe Ryan, but the depth of his pitches doesn’t make future bullpen arm concerns quite as obvious. In regards to pitch mix, Winder matches up quite well with Bailey Ober who is deservedly receiving quite a bit of buzz headed into 2022. Winder has a superior fastball and slider, while Ober has a plus changeup and impeccable command as Twins fans saw in his 92 innings pitched last season. Where Winder undoubtedly bests Ober, however, is his past body of work. The 125 innings in his second professional season were very encouraging. It’s a benchmark that Ober has yet to reach after throwing a career-high 108 innings in 2022 across AAA and the majors. Winder’s season-ending shoulder fatigue was likely just a result of so many innings after a year off, and his injury/durability concerns moving forward shouldn’t be as significant as Ober’s who’s dealt with his fair share of injuries already throughout his career. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober get a lot of love from Twins Territory, and rightfully so. There isn’t much substitution for watching a young arm succeed at the Major League level. It is important to remember that we were right on the edge of Josh Winder possibly being in the same conversation. For as good as Ryan and Ober might be, one could argue that Winder could be the more well-rounded of the trio when it comes to a future in an MLB rotation. I’d put my money on Winder spending Opening Day in St. Paul. That being said, depending on how the Twins address the rest of the rotation it’s not impossible that Winder could win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. He’s the next man up when it comes to the Falvine pitching pipeline, and we likely won’t have to wait too long to see him in Minneapolis. He may not receive the attention of the Chase Pettys of the world, but Winder deserves a lot of credit for his meteoric rise from being a 7th round pick where even decent Minor League careers are far from the norm. Regardless of how the season goes, 2022 will be a fun year when it comes to the pitching pipeline. Expect to see Josh Winder as the first of many to stake their claim in the Twins future rotation. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Trevor Larnach was front and center for a brief moment in 2021, crushing homers and brightening the future of the offense. But just as quickly as he showed up, he was gone. What can we expect from the slugging left hander moving forward? Fellow first-round picks Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have been near each other on the Twins prospect lists for years and had similar ETAs to make their debuts at Target Field. It was only natural that when Kirilloff got the call, Larnach made the jump shortly thereafter. Kirilloff showed that a trip back to the minors was unlikely despite his season-ending injury. Larnach’s 2021 however is a bit tougher to piece together. The Good Despite just 13 at-bats in his AAA career, Larnach looked far from overmatched upon his arrival. He posted an .845 OPS through his first month with an incredible eye at the plate. The left-hander was showing off some tremendous power as well with some tape-measure home runs and hit a ball 116 mph, a strong indicator of raw power. In the outfield, Larnach did surprisingly well in some facets. Left field appeared to be a bit of a struggle, but in right field, he played the overhang incredibly well, posting an Outs Above Average of 2 and 4 Defensive Runs Saved. We've heard Larnach isn't the fleetest of foot throughout his minor league career and there's been little in the way of excitement over his defense. That being said, he showed that he not only has the ability to be a difference-maker at the plate, but that he could surprisingly be a plus defender as well. The Bad Despite Larnach’s .845 OPS in his first month, he finished with a final OPS of just .672. It’s not hard to imagine the steep decline it would take for such a drop-off. From June 1 forward, Larnach posted a slash line of .222/.301/.320, a .621 OPS. The issues were completely obvious: Larnach stopped seeing fastballs. He hit .165 and slugged .215 against breaking balls in 2021 as well as .143 and .179 against off-speed pitches. 72% of his strikeouts came against pitches other than fastballs. Further complicating his struggles was an injury sustained after fouling a ball off of his foot. It’s hard to say whether the nagging foot pain contributed to the hitting woes, but after his demotion to St. Paul Larnach struggled mightily and played in just 10 games before being shut down for the season. What’s Next? With his significant struggles fresh in our minds, it’s understandable that the former top prospect has lost some shine in some fans' eyes. He’s shown a very significant weakness that will surely be abused at the Major League level over and over again until he shows he can overcome it. That being said, Larnach is far from the stereotypical slugger. Comparing him to a similarly tremendous slugger in Brent Rooker, for example, Larnach has a much better plate approach and his eye at the plate has held up at every stop of the minor leagues. He’s also been graded as having a far superior hit tool to Rooker, meaning more contact should be expected moving forward. He still has his issues to fix against the soft stuff, but his advanced offensive approach should prevent him from collapsing into the pool of hitters who can crush the ball on the rare occasion they make contact. These adjustments would likely be easier to make if he’s 100% healthy in 2022 as well. Larnach’s early showing defensively, especially in right field, is extremely encouraging. The Twins have a rash of depth in the corner outfield with more on its way in the minors. If Larnach can be more than just a body to put out there to get his bat in the lineup, he could easily grab that job if the necessary adjustments are made at the plate. These results also have to be encouraging for the front office, who will likely have to part with controllable pieces to get the arms needed to fill out the rotation effectively. Max Kepler has long been a rumored trade asset for example. While he’s had his incredible defensive seasons in right field, Larnach being competent at the position with a step up on offense would make Kepler much easier to part with. Larnach has possibly already shown more of a ceiling against left-handed pitching with 15 hits in 90 plate appearances against southpaws in 2021. Like much of the Twins 2021 season, Larnach’s year had an encouraging start only to collapse down the stretch. That being said, such tendencies are not uncommon when it comes to rookies getting their first taste of Major League pitching. He may not be as highly rated as a possibly generational hitter such as Kirilloff, but Larnach is a pure hitter capable of adjusting. Regardless of the teams’ plans to compete in 2022, he should spend a few months in St. Paul before getting another crack at cementing a roster spot for the next six years. Come this time next offseason, we may just be talking about Trevor Larnach as a staple in the heart of the Twins 2023 lineup. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It seems like a disappointing 2021 for the team has spilled into feelings of disappointment toward players who don’t deserve it. Josh Donaldson is perhaps the best example of this. Even for die-hard Twins fans, it’s easy to miss how impressive Donaldson still was in 2021. 2020 was admittedly a bad start to the four-year, $92m contract the Twins gave Josh Donaldson after whiffing on a big-name starting pitcher the offseason before. The former MVP missed more than half of the 60-game season with injuries including the best of three playoff series that ended in a whimper from the offense. Per game, however, Donaldson was the same star hitter he always has been, and he showed that across a much bigger body of work in 2021. For those unfamiliar with MLBs use of Statcast measurements, these numbers read in percentiles, meaning Donaldson is in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in barrel percentage, etc. In most offensive measurements, Donaldson’s raw skills were among the top 5-10% in all of baseball. For a season many considered disappointing, I think such a strong showing deserves some context. As you can see, Donaldson actually bested fan-favorite Nelson Cruz in many raw measurements in 2021 according to Statcast. It’s interesting to look at considering one of these players is discussed as the cornerstone of whatever lineup he’s in while the other is being discussed as a possible salary dump. Why might that be? 2020 Left a Bitter Taste 2020 was a season that likely had the front office wishing for a do-over on the largest free-agent contract the team had ever handed out. There was an understandable amount of frustration as the biggest addition to the team was nowhere to be seen for most of a season where the Twins captured their second consecutive division title only to be swept out of the playoffs once again. To make matters worse, those feelings of frustration had gasoline thrown onto the fire when Donaldson injured his hamstring on opening day 2021 and missed a chunk of time. For many, their minds were made up. Donaldson’s availability down the stretch was an incredible accomplishment, however, and showed that while his injury concerns are very much a reality, he’s still capable of being an everyday player across a full season. To once again make a Cruz vs. Donaldson comparison, DH Nelson Cruz played in 140 games compared to Donaldson’s 135 in 2021 which may surprise even the biggest Twins fans to hear. 2021 Was Unlucky The ongoing joke in 2021 was the continued use of the phrase “bad luck” as so much went wrong that it’s impossible to chalk it all up to misfortune. For Donaldson however, we have Statcast measurements saying his raw offensive ability hasn’t declined at all at age 35. His .247 average was much lower than his .268 expected batting average. His .475 slugging percentage was much lower than his .541 expected slugging. He also hit four fewer home runs than expected given the way he impacts the ball. His speed on the bases may be a partial explanation for these discrepancies but his hampered legs can only explain away a portion of these gaps in expected performance. If you aren’t a believer in expected stats, it’s still difficult to look back and be disappointed in his body of work that included a triple slash of .247/.352/.475, good for 24% above league average. Repeating that line would be just fine for 2022, but he appears to still have the physical capabilities to garner MVP votes if he can remain on the field as he did in 2021. So why point out Donaldson’s impressive performance in 2021? To be honest, he doesn’t get the appreciation he deserves. His impact would have essentially erased a disappointing 2020 in the eyes of fans had he performed exactly the same and the team hadn’t crumbled. Statcast says he could have performed even better. He’s talked about like he’s over the hill and his contract needs to be dumped before it’s too late so the Twins can improve. In reality, however, Donaldson is probably one of the three most important pieces of the Twins offense in 2022. Without Nelson Cruz, Donaldson is an important figure on the team not just on the field, but as a veteran-hitting savant who can have a huge impact on the upcoming prospects. It’s entirely possible that Donaldson’s health in 2022 could go the way of 2020 rather than 2021. That being said, at bat for at bat there still aren’t a ton of players you want in the heart of your lineup over Josh Donaldson, and he’s still a tantalizing talent that should have Twins fans looking forward to the beginning of the 2022 season. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Royce Lewis’ prospect stock has dropped precipitously the last few years as the Twins former top prospect has dealt with canceled minor league seasons and injuries. Just how far has the consensus on him declined though? Drafted 1st overall in 2017, Royce Lewis looked the part in his debut season as well as 2018. Unfortunately he followed it up with three years that significantly hurt his outlook in the eyes of many evaluators. We now have to look back nearly two full seasons to find the former top prospects last professional at bat. It’s important to note that 2019 wasn’t exactly a banner season for Lewis when he was on the field. He finished strong, earning MVP of the Arizona Fall League but was a below league-average hitter between A and AA ball. Questions were also starting to arise regarding his ability to stick at shortstop, the premium position that surely played a hand in his 1st overall draft selection. With such a gap in play, his prospect capital was bound to decline, but how far has it come down since the beginning of that 2019 season? Prospect rankings can be arbitrary and interchangeable, and there are tons of sources of all sizes that regularly provide them. Three such sources are MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus, all widely respected evaluators of young talent. At the beginning of 2019, these three sources ranked Lewis 5th, 9th and 8th respectively just two years after he was drafted out of high school. He was one of the most anticipated prospects not just in the Twins system, but in all of baseball. As the calendar turns to 2022, however, MLB.com’s ranking has dropped from 5th to 35th. Baseball America from 9th to 82nd. Baseball Prospectus, who many believe to be the industry standard in evaluating prospects, went from ranking Lewis 8th to not ranking him in their top 101 at all. Royce Lewis has a lot working against him when it comes to these evaluators trying to make an honest assessment. It began in 2019 when many believed the excess movement in his swing was being exploited as he ascended through the system, a claim that was supported by his .231/.291/.358 batting line in AA. Also of note is the aforementioned question marks emerging about his ability to man shortstop long term as many had hoped when he was drafted. 2020 offered little opportunity for Lewis to address these concerns in his defense. While he was in “summer camp” with the Twins along with other top prospects, there was little visual evidence available for fans or prospect evaluators that could have been used to indicate any kind of development. 2021 did little to change the outlook, as hope of any development was dashed before it began when Lewis tore his ACL in the offseason. He was unable to get the reps that he so desperately needed to be able to access his loud raw tools. The Twins former #1 overall pick hit a snag in his development as plenty of top prospects do. In this case however, Lewis’ opportunity to adapt and progress had been interrupted by two straight seasons without game situation reps. This unfortunately is how one of the top prospects in all of baseball finds themselves plummeting out of top 100 lists. For what it’s worth, it’s not all doom and gloom with Lewis. For what seems like a significant amount of lost time, he’s still only 22 years old. MLB has a decent history of players like Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler and Wilson Ramos who returned to form after torn ACLs just to name a few. Assuming his athleticism and explosiveness are intact, it’s entirely possible that a few mechanical tweaks could quickly put him back on a superstar path given the raw talent he’s shown in his young career. Reports have never waned from the Twins being incredibly bullish on their former top prospect. It’s likely that they’ll be aggressive to an extent in making up for lost time. He’s likely to begin 2022 in AA or even AAA in an everyday shortstop role in order to try to sort out his defensive future as quickly as possible. Even if the swing is still a work in progress, if Lewis shows an ability to stick at the shortstop position he’d likely be climbing back up prospect boards as well as the board of public opinion. One thing is certain, 2022 is the biggest year yet when it comes to the development of Royce Lewis. Lewis was added to the Twins 40-man roster following the 2021 season. It is a great thing for any prospect. However, until their is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, Lewis will not be able to work at the Twins facilities or even be in contact with Twins personnel. Until there is an agreement, Lewis again finds himself unable to play. For that reason alone, Twins fans should want this lockout to end quickly. Royce Lewis does not need any more missed time. Do you think Royce Lewis’ consensus drop-off is too harsh after his two years away from competitive baseball? Does he have to use 2022 to earn the status of one of the top prospects in all of baseball again? Let us know below! More Twins Daily Content — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article