Cody Pirkl

Polanco isn't a concern, but if they feel his defense is costing them, they start to look at him as expendable. We've seen that play out several times with this regime. We just watched them trade Luis Arraez who was also well liked and cheap. There's no obvious replacement behind him at 1B other than hoping Kirilloff is healthy and good, Gallo coming in from the OF to play there, or Miranda going back. I think people underestimate this front office's willingness to trade off pretty much anyone if they feel like they can replace them and get good value out of it.

It won't take going 4 for 4 on the prospects. If one or two look like possible MLB contributors it gives the Twins something to think about. Also I pointed out within that his salary is incredibly affordable and didn't imply that would be a reason to trade him. Luis Arraez was affordable too however.

The Twins previous core continues to be dismantled as young players continue approaching the MLB and veterans fizzle or get shipped out of town. For Jorge Polanco, 2023 may have a huge bearing on his future with the Twins. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco has been with the Twins through good and bad. Debuting in 2016, he's been a part of some of the most irrelevant and prolific teams in recent Twins history. At 29 years old and under team control through 2025 with a very affordable contract, he could still be around for some time. 2023 will have a lot to do with this possibility, however. Polanco has been up and down the last few years, being a great regular in 2019 before an ankle injury made him something of a non-factor in 2020. In 2021, he was arguably the best player on the team, but in 2022, he missed significant time and wasn’t quite the same player on the field. It’s hard to argue that Polanco is currently very valuable to the team, but he may have to become a more well-rounded player in order to cement his future in Minnesota. It would be surprising to see Jorge Polanco struggle offensively in 2023. A switch hitter, he’s certain to be an everyday player, as regardless of the opposing pitcher he can take advantage of platoon splits. His slash line of .235/.346/.405 could be considered a down season by his standards, but when compared to the league average, he was still 19% above offensively. It’s easy to bet on Polanco being 15-20% above league average again in 2023, but it’s his defense that may determine his future. Polanco ranged from below average to horrendous defensively depending on the defensive metric in 2022. His -9 Outs Above Average was better than only two players who qualified at 2B across the entire league. His -1 Defensive Runs Saved was certainly passable, but context matters. With multiple infield prospects capable of playing second base knocking on the door of the MLB, Polanco needs to finally be the second baseman we all hoped he could be. Injuries may have played a part in Polanco’s defensive struggles, though there isn’t really much evidence to the theory that it cost him defensively. In 2021, when Polanco played 152 games and put up a career year, he was worth -10 Outs Above Average with a more impressive 3 Defensive Runs Saved. Even that positive 3 isn’t what you’d expect from a former shortstop who’s moved to second base. Sprint speed is a good way to judge a player's health in a given year. Typically in seasons riddled with injury, sprint speed declines. In 2020, Jorge Polanco was visibly taking half swings all season as he hobbled on an ankle that required surgical repair in the offseason. He posted a career-low 27.8 average sprint speed. In 2022, Polanco’s average sprint speed was the highest it had been since 2019. In regard to second basemen, he actually improved from 30th by sprint speed in 2021 to 22nd in 2022, and for players of his same age, he was the 14th fastest player by average sprint speed. It’s possible that his knee and back issues affected his defense, but playing through injury certainly isn’t reflected at least in this metric. The fact that his 2022 defensive measures mostly match his healthy 2021 doesn't paint a great picture either. It’s possible that despite Polanco moving off of shortstop, where he was stretched, the defensive boost we expected simply isn’t coming. Since the position change, we have roughly 1,800 innings of data telling us that this is the case. With the shift ban debuting in 2023, it’s possible things will get even worse. Polanco can play a less-than-ideal defense and still be a valuable contributor because of his bat, but the Twins have shown they aren’t interested in this mold of player. Look no further than recently-departed Luis Arraez. There are offense-needy teams throughout the MLB, and the Twins have shown that they don’t value players who accrue all of their value at the plate. With possibly two years and $22.5 million remaining on Polanco’s contract after 2023, several teams across the league would likely give up a good bit of value if they’re willing to tolerate shaky infield defense to boost their offense. The Twins love value. Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis. These are the players to watch in 2023. If they give the Twins any hope whatsoever of being able to provide close to Jorge Polanco’s level of value, the Twins will likely see him as expendable to improve the team elsewhere. If Polanco’s defense doesn’t improve in year three as a full-time second baseman, the possibility of one of these prospects meeting that threshold becomes very likely. It’s a make-or-break year for Jorge Polanco. Do you agree? View full article

I think Gallo was signed to replace Kepler but they misjudged Kepler's value in trade. My issue with Urshela vs Kepler is that they dumped Urshela to open playing time for a younger player but would rather jam up the roster to hold onto Kepler who quite frankly hasn't been a starting caliber player in years. People can cite his defense all they want, he's replaceable as evidenced by the 3-4 other plus defensive corner outfielders on the roster. His lack of offense at a premium offensive position makes him a bench player, but the Twins unfortunately can't let 2019 go. If somebody offers a Gio Urshela level trade package for Kepler, I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't take hit. Get rid of his money and get a right handed bat or reliever who will offer more value to the roster. Or, as I wrote about, just identify the left handed, defense first outfielder as the more expendable one from day one of the offseason and instead of dumping Urshela, just peg him as a utility infielder and dump Kepler for the low minors reliever.

Roster context is important though. The Twins have three left handed corner outfielders who are plus defenders and Michael A Taylor who will also likely play in the corners from time to time. That level of defensive value starts to reach the point of diminishing returns pretty quickly considering all of those players can't be on the field at the same time. Urshela is essentially the opposite of what Kepler and Gallo were last season: All of his Fangraphs WAR was gained from his offense. Would we rather have multiple players who get all of their value from defense and cripple the lineup, or one of those players and a right handed hitter who can match up better? I'm not concerned about Urshela's lack of ability to play the outfield, the "depth" turned into an excess the day Gallo was signed.

I agree with you regarding further roster moves. This opinion is based on the recent reporting that they don't seem likely to trade Kepler. I think Urshela is more valuable as an overall player and to this particular roster than Kepler. If they still did and the roster jam got cleared up then I'm happy to call Gio for Farmer a worthy 1:1 swap. I just don't like where they're at currently with players like Wallner and Larnach (Who have a chance to be better than Kepler) buried on the depth chart and Gallo potentially playing out of position.

It's reading the tea leaves based on the reports we have regarding the limited work Kirilloff is getting in terms of swings and the soreness that persists in his wrist. In that same article there's a fair amount of referencing Joey Gallo playing 1B. I'd rather have kept Gio Urshela than have the left handed outfield logjam they have now, especially if Gallo is going to have to play out of position from where he's earned two gold gloves. I'd also prefer to have Urshela over Kepler simply due to redundancy. They've replaced Urshela with Farmer, a worthy trade off considering Farmer's ability to play SS. They replaced Celestino with Taylor to give the younger guy time to develop more in AAA, another worthy trade off. They also dropped Garlick from the 40 man roster and replaced him with another left handed corner outfielder in need of a bounceback in Joey Gallo despite the fact that Max Kepler is essentially at the same crossroads in his career. A team that got abused by AAA level left handed pitchers last season because of their inability to put themselves in advantageous matchups has actually made the active choice to become more left handed. I don't like that roster construction, and a lot of it appears to be tied to their refusal to admit Max Kepler is nothing more than a defense first fill in level player just because he had one single great season three years ago. That's my issue with the current roster and why I think dumping Gio Urshela was a mistake. In regards to Lewis, you simply can't justify offseason roster decisions based on a guy with 41 career plate appearances who won't be back until July at the earliest after tearing his ACL a second time. That's a bonus player, not one you count on if you're a serious team.

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

They basically traded what would have been 3B depth in Urshela (when Miranda moved over) for SS depth in Farmer, but they could've had both. I think if there's one thing the roster could use right now, it's one more right handed bat to play 1B if Kirilloff needs to platoon. I think Gio would have been able to fit that description very well, even if Farmer was still here.

I quite honestly can't continue to address everything in these responses so I'll leave it at this: Gio Urshela was given away for nothing at the start of the offseason. The Twins then signed Joey Gallo, as by all accounts, they planned on trading Max Kepler. It appears they misjudged Kepler's value on the trade market and now are choosing to roll with a situation that even Dan Hayes stated "Finding at bats for everyone could be challenging" about and that they're "bordering on overkill". I don't understand why it's such an out there opinion that Urshela would be a better roster fit and use of resources than either of these bounceback candidates. You can disagree with that, that's fine. Gio Urshela was a far better player than either of these two last season though. It's not even close by any measure that exists, and based solely on the left handed outfield depth of the 40 man roster, he's a better roster fit as well in my opinion. I'd have rather they kept him and either not signed Gallo or dumped Kepler for the low minors relief arm. Either scenario makes a better team in my eyes.

It's already been reported that Gallo will be playing 1B, especially early in the year to spell Kirilloff.

Haven't seen a single report that Farmer might play 1B. If you want to make an argument along those lines, Miranda would probably move over to 1B if its a straight platoon scenario with Kirilloff and Farmer would take over 3B. Again that would raise the question as to why Urshela was basically given away. I'm not sure how it could be argued that this roster needed another left handed corner OF more than a right handed IF, especially when two of the OFs would be disasters if they repeat their 2022 performances. In regards to "why sign Gallo at all instead of keep Urshela", that's a fair question to ask. They already had a plus defending corner OF coming off a terrible offensive season, and they kept both of those players over Miranda who was the more valuable player than either. Gallo is going to play a good amount of 1B which is where I think we disagree. It's either that or Larnach, Gordon etc. aren't playing much at all.

It's been pretty widely reported that Gallo is going to be the player to spell Kirilloff at 1B early in the season if Kirilloff is going to be ready to play at all by Opening Day. Gallo has played there but why not keep Gio Urshela who isn't a gold glove winning defender at another position to play a more logical platoon role? All of the lefties also pushes down players like Larnach to a point where they're not even insurance, they're just plain buried. I'm not trying to make this Gio vs Gallo, I'd actually prefer they had gotten rid of Kepler. I just don't think they sign Gallo unless their plan at some point wasn't to trade Kepler away, but it seems they somehow misjudged the trade market for a below average hitter at a premium offensive position. They could have put this roster together a whole lot better, but in my eyes they continue to overvalue Max Kepler to the point where they're costing themselves. Gio is a better player by just about any measure, but he was dumped for whatever they could get. Don't really understand it.

Gio was far better than Kepler and Gallo against both righ and left handed pitching as well. I get that anything can happen in baseball, but in my opinion which I've based on the statistics and roster fit of all players involved, the Twins dumped the wrong player.

The roster construction is the basis of calling it a mistake. They have so many left handed corner outfielders that one of them who's won gold gloves at their position is going to have to play 1B for playing time. Gio is a much better fit for how this roster wound up than Kepler or Gallo on the basis of him being right handed and performing better than both combined last season. I also don't believe in the "the season hasn't started yet so we can't judge" idea. You can tell by looking at the roster right now that they have too many left handed hitters and that guys are going to be playing out of position. That's not a sign of good process by the FO.

Why is that exactly? I'm just curious why people don't think that they'd have a better team with Gio instead of Gallo or Kepler. Another RH hitter would help and Gio is a better bet to contribute offensively imo.

Dan Hayes had an article on the Athletic I believe 5 days ago that said the soreness hasn't gone away.

We can predict Kirilloff being healthy all we'd like, it's based on nothing more than hope on our end. At the last report he was taking 60-70 swings per day and still has legitimate soreness. Joey Gallo is going to see a lot of time at 1B.

IMO, give me Gio over Kepler or Gallo. We don't need 6 left handed corner OFs on the 40 man roster, that's absolutely ridiculous. Sure, Gallo can move to 1B, but that eliminates his defensive value which is the safest way he contributes to a team. I'd argue that if they were willing to hold out on a legitimate return for Kepler, who has been injured and terrible offensively for years now, that they either shouldn't have signed another left handed corner OF or shouldn't have traded Gio. Just value going to waste.

The Twins had a roster jam and an offseason of moves on the horizon when they dumped Gio Urshela for what was essentially salary relief. Given how the rest of the offseason has played out, this move appears to have been a mistake. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however. The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand. It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market. Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues? The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors. It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base? It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree? View full article

I agree, to start the year I don't see them moving Ober to the bullpen. I do think if they like what they see from younger guys such as Varland, SWR, etc, they're likely going to move ahead of Ober in terms of next man up in the majors if he's hurt. If they reach a point where they feel like they have other depth starter options and Ober continues to miss time, they may see more value in Ober being on the field to relieve than on the shelf as a starter. I'd love it if Ober stayed healthy however. He has the ability to be a starting pitcher.

Be it injury or ineffectiveness, sometimes it just doesn’t pan out for starting pitching prospects. The Twins were carried at times in 2023 by starters who switched to the bullpen. It’s hard to ask for another Jhoan Duran, but who could be the next Griffin Jax? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Griffin Jax got a look as a starting pitcher down the inconsequential stretch of 2021. It didn’t go great as evidenced by his 6.37 ERA in 82 innings, but when his bright spots popped up, they were typically driven by a slider-heavy approach. While it can be rash to judge a starting pitching prospect when they struggle in their rookie season, the Twins opted to allow Jax to play to his strengths. In shorter stints, he could feature his wicked slider and complement it with a middling fastball that played up with a three mph increase in velocity. He went on to be a staple of the Twins bullpen, posting a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. Could we see another Griffin Jax-type reliever in 2023? Cole Sands Sands became an afterthought to many in 2022 after being used to fill innings in several spots where the Twins were struggling to field a team. Never a prospect with a particularly high pedigree, it’s easy to see his ERA over 5.00 at both the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2022 and consider him as nothing more than a fringy fill-in type. The Twins however haven’t exhausted all of their options with Sands yet. Sands’ carrying tool as a prospect has always been his huge breaking ball which received an excellent 70 grade by Fangraphs. He doesn’t excel in any other department, but there’s a world where the offspeed is good enough to make him a legitimate weapon if he can go out and throw it as much as he wants for an inning. The pitch was in the 88th percentile in spin rate in 2022 and stymied opposing hitters even as he was often used for multiple innings. With several other starting pitching prospects graduating into the depth chart, it may be time for Sands to make the switch. Ronny Henriquez Henriquez is listed at what has been described as a generous 5’10. Regardless of his size, he’s shown the ability to run his fastball into the mid-to-high-90s with impressive spin. In addition, he features a well-regarded slider and changeup as well. Despite these tools, Henriquez just didn’t show what he needed to in Triple-A, posting a 5.66 ERA in 2022 due to issues with the long ball. He made his MLB debut working as a multi-inning bullpen arm for 11 innings. Henriquez could follow a similar path to Jax if converted to a traditional one to two inning reliever. He already featured his slider in his debut, throwing it about 46% of the time and drawing a 32% whiff rate. Like Jax, his fastball got absolutely pummeled. In a condensed role, it’s possible the fastball which debuted at 93.3 mph could gain a few ticks to help him get away with a few more mistakes. Unlike Jax, Henriquez appears to already have a solid left-hander equalizer in the changeup. If the Twins commit to the move for Henriquez at 23 years old, he has the tools to excel in short stints. Bailey Ober It may seem like a longshot for Ober to wind up in the bullpen, but he may be closer than many fans would like to believe. When it comes to the body of work for the 6’9 right-hander, it’s hard to complain about his performance. Ober has a sub 4.00 ERA across his first two MLB seasons and a legitimate four-pitch mix, making him a painful consideration to ever be moved to the bullpen. It’s more about quantity than quality in Ober’s case, however. He’s had an injury-riddled career and has surpassed 100 innings just once in his five professional seasons. His lack of reliability likely played a big part in the Twins acquiring Pablo López, which appears to have pushed Ober out of the Opening Day rotation. Many would be surprised to know that he’s already 27 years old, and at this point, another multi-week IL stint will likely push prospects like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of him on the rotational depth chart. With his age, Ober not only becomes more of an injury risk every year, but his projectability becomes an issue. The idea of building up to even 140-150 innings is almost unfathomable following a 2022 season where he threw just over 70. At some point, the Twins may just decide that if Ober’s cap is 100 innings, he may be better off throwing 50-60 innings out of the bullpen and giving those bulk innings to younger starters who are still capable of reaching a starter’s workload. Ober’s already-sufficient pitch would most certainly play up in the bullpen, and it may even help keep him on the field. Do you think the Twins have any more starting pitching prospects who could be headed for a successful bullpen job? Let us know below! View full article