Will the Real Trevor Larnach Please Stand Up

I am expecting, and certainly hoping for, a bounce back year for Larnach.  So much so that he forces his way onto the Twins roster and into the lineup.

Those huge gaps between between AVG and OBP are promising. The league figured out quickly you don't want to throw him fastballs so they fed him nothing but sliders. If those gaps weren't there, I'd be more concerned. I feel confident he's going to figure it out. 

If he does, I wonder if that threatens Kepler's job security if he remains so beatable and vulnerable to 4-3 groundouts. 

Our team is flush with redundant players, particularly corner outfield/corner infield/DH-type players. To name a few, Kepler, Kiriloff, Sano, Sanchez, Urshela, Rooker, Miranda, Larnach, and, to some extent, Arraez. While we all hope that Larnach and Miranda can get some major league ABs, it may be tough absent an injury. 

7 minutes ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

Those huge gaps between between AVG and OBP are promising. The league figured out quickly you don't want to throw him fastballs so they fed him nothing but sliders. If those gaps weren't there, I'd be more concerned. I feel confident he's going to figure it out. 

If he does, I wonder if that threatens Kepler's job security if he remains so beatable and vulnerable to 4-3 groundouts. 

You are correct that Kepler’s job security is threatened. Patience is required, but it’s quite possible that if Max doesn’t start hitting, Larnach is a starting OFer for us by early summer and Martin is as well by the trade deadline. 

Buxton (when healthy) is the only solid outfielder on the roster, so there are no roadblocks, only speed bumps in the way of any prospects. The ONLY (non-salary) reason Kepler is considered a second lineup lock, is because he can play defense, and no prospect has hit well enough to force the issue. And three years ago Max destroyed juiced balls before the shift destroyed him.

If Larnach continues to hit in Spring Training, he should be the fourth outfielder right away (along with Kirilloff, Buxton, and Kepler), and if Alex and Trevor hit better than Max, they both should play more, and Kepler can be the defensive replacement. If they don't hit...

Well, this team has too many giant question-mark-hitters on the roster already to succeed with low-.200s/dozen-HR performances from the corner outfielders.

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

Our team is flush with redundant players, particularly corner outfield/corner infield/DH-type players. To name a few, Kepler, Kiriloff, Sano, Sanchez, Urshela, Rooker, Miranda, Larnach, and, to some extent, Arraez. While we all hope that Larnach and Miranda can get some major league ABs, it may be tough absent an injury. 

If Kirilloff and Larnach are hitting good, it would be a mistake to bat any of the above mentioned guys ahead of them.  I think Larnach got the call-up too early and there was more to his injury or an injury we didn't hear about.  Larnach and Kirilloff will be good MLB hitters.

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Buxton (when healthy) is the only solid outfielder on the roster, so there are no roadblocks, only speed bumps in the way of any prospects. The ONLY (non-salary) reason Kepler is considered a second lineup lock, is because he can play defense, and no prospect has hit well enough to force the issue. And three years ago Max destroyed juiced balls before the shift destroyed him.

If Larnach continues to hit in Spring Training, he should be the fourth outfielder right away (along with Kirilloff, Buxton, and Kepler), and if Alex and Trevor hit better than Max, they both should play more, and Kepler can be the defensive replacement. If they don't hit...

Well, this team has too many giant question-mark-hitters on the roster already to succeed with low-.200s/dozen-HR performances from the corner outfielders.

FYI ZIPS has Kepler projected at #4 on the team's position players in WAR, behind Correa, Buxton, and Polanco. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

I am a huge believer in Larnach.  I believe he will eventually replace Kepler.  And if Kep continues to show he can't hit against the shift, then the sooner the better.  Larnach needs as many at bats as he can get and will continually improve. I love Keplers' defense and I hope he turns things around but it looks like the youth movement is on a fast track.

The above comments suggest Kepler as Larnach's competition for playing time. I think it is Sano. If Sano doesn't hit, Kiriloff moves to first and Larnach to left field. Or, if Sanchez doesn't hit, Sano becomes DH and the Kiriloff and Larnach moves occur. These scenarios also improve the right-handed imbalance in the lineup.

Locks to start the season in MLB with the Twins:

Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Urshela, Sanchez, Sano

Locks unless they are part of a trade for SP:

Arraez, Kepler

Likely, but still some convincing to do:

Larnach, Gordon

Maybe if AB / Role can be found

Miranda, Rooker

Who is being blocked? Other than maybe Miranda at 3B or LF? I see Larnach with the Twins from day one.

I've been hard on Larnach. Too hard. Got so ticked off that Baddoo burst into near-stardom (which I kinda feared might happen when he was selected in the Rule 5) that I let that anger taint my perception of Larnach. He didn't meet expectations in his first year, but I think I forgot at the time that few prospects do.

I've seen a few of his mighty cuts this spring, and he looks good at the plate. Doesn't yet look all that good in the OF. With a solid work ethic, I think he's got a chance to turn the page and take his place on this team in 2022. We'll see, but I'm rooting for him.

Larnach has another good couple of days, if we are abundant in the same type of players others have said, could be time to move him in as part of a package for SP.

It would be great if he continues to hit and becomes above serviceable in RF.  I know this is alot of ifs, but I believe he will hit and hit very well.  Would be great if he pushed Kepler into a 4th OF role, defensive replacement.  Ok...there I said it

Larnach is in the same boat as Miranda and Martin - all are solid prospects who have pretty much done (or soon will in Martin’s case) what they have needed to earn a spot in the majors.

Right now we have four players on the team who are blocking their innings and/ABs: Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez.  The Twins have over $33MM committed to those four this year.

I hope we contend early and these players produce. But if they don’t, Larnach et al should get their chances and the cash should be reinvested in pitching. 
 

*always with the obvious caveat of a potential trade that could still happen.*

I think Larnach is going to be fine. He was pushed pretty quickly last year, (along with Celestino and Rortvedt), and then got dinged. The fact that Larnach didn't finish strong for St Paul tells me he was hurt worse than believed. I do see him taking over for Kepler eventually; younger, cheaper, better bat with as much power, strong arm, not as much speed/range. And I do believe Kirilloff does eventually move to 1B on a permanent basis, but he's needed in LF for now. 

Just my opinion, but limited time to set the roster and get everyone ready, I think Larnach and Miranda are both going to begin the year in St Paul, even with the expanded roster. Those extra spots go to pitching. I suspect neither Larnach nor Miranda will be with the Saints past June 1st. 

Since he was mentioned and ties in here, I think Martin will end up in LF eventually, while backing up CF and being able to cover across the infield. A super utility with a primary position of LF. But I suspect he's more of a 2nd half of the season call up. He's still inexperienced and needs to tap in to his power. He won't be down long though. 

I think Celestino will be up for good in the near future as well. And he's going to do it all as a great 4th OF.

Biggest problem right now is we need  a 4th OF who has a RH bat to begin the season at least. That's maybe Rooker or a non roster player. Not great choices there. 

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Locks to start the season in MLB with the Twins:

Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Urshela, Sanchez, Sano

Locks unless they are part of a trade for SP:

Arraez, Kepler

Likely, but still some convincing to do:

Larnach, Gordon

Maybe if AB / Role can be found

Miranda, Rooker

Who is being blocked? Other than maybe Miranda at 3B or LF? I see Larnach with the Twins from day one.

Yep.

Or to think of it another way.

Buxton starts nearly every game in CF, with Gordon getting Buxton's (hopefully very few) days off.

Ushela, Arraez, Polanco, Correa get the vast majority of starts at 3B-2B-SS. Think of it as a line. Whichever name gets the day off, the positions stay in that order. Urshela plays 3B, Arraez 3B/2B, Polanco 2B/SS, Correa SS. Gordon is the emergency guy here as well.

In a similar line that goes C-DH-1B-LF-RF, Jeffers (C)-Sanchez (C/DH)-Sano (DH/1B)-Kirilloff (1B/LF)-Larnach (LF/RF)-Kepler (RF) get the vast majority of starts. Godoy gets a handful of starts, but is mostly the emergency guy and defensive replacement for Sanchez.

So yeah, Larnach's on the team.

Miranda and Rooker are in AAA until an injury. Miranda then slots in the 3B-2B-SS line and Rooker in the latter.

And 15 pitchers.   

As I've been preaching since last season ended, the Twins needed to move both Donaldson and Sano in order to open up playing time and ABs for the young guys that are the team's future. With Donaldson gone we're only half there and we still have a logjam. Sano has always been the biggest log. Trade him and most of the playing time problems go away, the young guys get a solid year of experience at the major league level and we're a contender in 2023. Dink around all season long with Sano blocking Kirilloff at first, Larnach in left and three or four others who could get AB's at DH and we can forget contending in 2023.

46 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

*always with the obvious caveat of a potential trade that could still happen.*

I think Larnach is going to be fine. He was pushed pretty quickly last year, (along with Celestino and Rortvedt), and then got dinged. The fact that Larnach didn't finish strong for St Paul tells me he was hurt worse than believed. I do see him taking over for Kepler eventually; younger, cheaper, better bat with as much power, strong arm, not as much speed/range. And I do believe Kirilloff does eventually move to 1B on a permanent basis, but he's needed in LF for now. 

Just my opinion, but limited time to set the roster and get everyone ready, I think Larnach and Miranda are both going to begin the year in St Paul, even with the expanded roster. Those extra spots go to pitching. I suspect neither Larnach nor Miranda will be with the Saints past June 1st. 

Since he was mentioned and ties in here, I think Martin will end up in LF eventually, while backing up CF and being able to cover across the infield. A super utility with a primary position of LF. But I suspect he's more of a 2nd half of the season call up. He's still inexperienced and needs to tap in to his power. He won't be down long though. 

I think Celestino will be up for good in the near future as well. And he's going to do it all as a great 4th OF.

Biggest problem right now is we need  a 4th OF who has a RH bat to begin the season at least. That's maybe Rooker or a non roster player. Not great choices there. 

I agree with all this. Larnach's struggles have given Rooker another shot and I think that is ok. He has the righty bat that is needed and while many doubt his future many will react if he produces elsewhere. The Twins have a fair amount invested here 

31 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

As I've been preaching since last season ended, the Twins needed to move both Donaldson and Sano in order to open up playing time and ABs for the young guys that are the team's future. With Donaldson gone we're only half there and we still have a logjam. Sano has always been the biggest log. Trade him and most of the playing time problems go away, the young guys get a solid year of experience at the major league level and we're a contender in 2023. Dink around all season long with Sano blocking Kirilloff at first, Larnach in left and three or four others who could get AB's at DH and we can forget contending in 2023.

If Larnach and Rooker are the Twins future, the Twins have no future; Spring Training and the Minors are for learning not watch them screw up the regular season.

There's no doubt in my mind that Larnach is and will develope into a pretty good hitter. Just a matter of time for him to adjust and readjust to MLB pitching. I think it's a matter of time we move on from Sanchez from DH and Sano' at 1B. But my greatest worry is not our OF bats but our OF gloves. Not only of not having a true MLB ready CF to sub Buxton but lack of defense  in replacing Kepler in RF and depth at LF with Rooker and Garlic well below par, Larnach not much better and Kiriloff at best avg.. I get frustated by this FO lack of concern for this area of much need, It's like they purposely not seek out anyone to leave the door open for Cave to walk in & unconsciencely help us lose more games. Let's just just get rid of Cave so this is no longer a temptation and make a conscience effort for once and get a true MLB ready CF sub before Celestino and Martin are MLB ready.

3 hours ago, Obie said:

 

The above comments suggest Kepler as Larnach's competition for playing time. I think it is Sano. If Sano doesn't hit, Kiriloff moves to first and Larnach to left field. Or, if Sanchez doesn't hit, Sano becomes DH and the Kiriloff and Larnach moves occur. These scenarios also improve the right-handed imbalance in the lineup.

 

Agree with this. Add Sanchez too as another poster noted. Defensive questions are bigger than offense for Larnach- the dropoff last year after the foot injury was so dramatic. Kiriloff and Larnach...1b and OF...K and L boys. I see them as two related pieces. I believe in these two for their offense, Kiriloff can be a very good 1b, Larnach is the defensive ?. So yeah , agreed that FO needs to figure out what to do with Sano, would rather we move on from him and create room for these guys. Easier said than done though.

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's no doubt in my mind that Larnach is and will develope into a pretty good hitter. Just a matter of time for him to adjust and readjust to MLB pitching. I think it's a matter of time we move on from Sanchez from DH and Sano' at 1B. But my greatest worry is not our OF bats but our OF gloves. Not only of not having a true MLB ready CF to sub Buxton but lack of defense  in replacing Kepler in RF and depth at LF with Rooker and Garlic well below par, Larnach not much better and Kiriloff at best avg.. I get frustated by this FO lack of concern for this area of much need, It's like they purposely not seek out anyone to leave the door open for Cave to walk in & unconsciencely help us lose more games. Let's just just get rid of Cave so this is no longer a temptation and make a conscience effort for once and get a true MLB ready CF sub before Celestino and Martin are MLB ready.

I like the basis of your post but am going to disagree slightly. Larnach will never have the speed/range of Kepler. And I honestly haven't seen enough of Larnach to know how good he is or could be defensively. I know he has the arm for RF, which is why he usually played RF when he and AK were both in the lineup. From what I have read, Larnach is a decent athlete, though by no means as good as Kepler, but not a statue.

Martin is a great athlete, and the Twins have stated they feel he's already more than capable of playing the OF right now, despite their intention to focus him on the infield for now. And I think that's the smart play. Why wouldn't you develop him as much as you can in the infield for now for future possibilities? But I fully believe he's going to be our LF, and a good one. He'll cover CF for Buxton, but could/should have the ability to also cover a couple infield spots. He could/should be an excellent LF...not some bat stashed there...and a combination of Martin, Buxton, and Larnach should be an excellent OF production wise, but can also be, excellent, excellent, good/solid defensively. And that's ASSUMING Kepler being gone, which might not be the case at all! Then, let's toss in Celestino in to the mix as a high quality defensive player across the entire outfield who can bring a little bit of everything offensively,  suddenly we have offense and defense across the board with a combination of 4-5 players.

Again, as always, SOMEONE, might be moved. But looking to the future as things sit right now, this OF could be COMPLETE in all ways as early as mid season. I don't think the FO is dismissing defense at all. I just think, much like the pitching prospects, we're just a little behind the expected/hoped for development due to covid and a shortened ST this year.

8 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I like the basis of your post but am going to disagree slightly. Larnach will never have the speed/range of Kepler. And I honestly haven't seen enough of Larnach to know how good he is or could be defensively. I know he has the arm for RF, which is why he usually played RF when he and AK were both in the lineup. From what I have read, Larnach is a decent athlete, though by no means as good as Kepler, but not a statue.

Martin is a great athlete, and the Twins have stated they feel he's already more than capable of playing the OF right now, despite their intention to focus him on the infield for now. And I think that's the smart play. Why wouldn't you develop him as much as you can in the infield for now for future possibilities? But I fully believe he's going to be our LF, and a good one. He'll cover CF for Buxton, but could/should have the ability to also cover a couple infield spots. He could/should be an excellent LF...not some bat stashed there...and a combination of Martin, Buxton, and Larnach should be an excellent OF production wise, but can also be, excellent, excellent, good/solid defensively. And that's ASSUMING Kepler being gone, which might not be the case at all! Then, let's toss in Celestino in to the mix as a high quality defensive player across the entire outfield who can bring a little bit of everything offensively,  suddenly we have offense and defense across the board with a combination of 4-5 players.

Again, as always, SOMEONE, might be moved. But looking to the future as things sit right now, this OF could be COMPLETE in all ways as early as mid season. I don't think the FO is dismissing defense at all. I just think, much like the pitching prospects, we're just a little behind the expected/hoped for development due to covid and a shortened ST this year.

We agree on Larnach pretty much. If Martin is ready to play OF especially CF that's where we really need him not INF. Because we have plenty of infielders and at SS which where we could use him, many don't think he'd good enough stick there. Why aren't they playing him there? makes no sense.

5 hours ago, GNess said:

Locks to start the season in MLB with the Twins:

Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Urshela, Sanchez, Sano

Locks unless they are part of a trade for SP:

Arraez, Kepler

Likely, but still some convincing to do:

Larnach, Gordon

Maybe if AB / Role can be found

Miranda, Rooker

Who is being blocked? Other than maybe Miranda at 3B or LF? I see Larnach with the Twins from day one.

Your 10 first mentioned, are locks.  If they start with 13 position players, that leaves 3 spots.  My prediction would be Gordon, Godoy and some right handed outfielder.  I don’t think Larnach makes the opening day roster, even if he has a good spring training.

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We agree on Larnach pretty much. If Martin is ready to play OF especially CF that's where we really need him not INF. Because we have plenty of infielders and at SS which where we could use him, many don't think he'd good enough stick there. Why aren't they playing him there? makes no sense.

Are you saying he isn't playing enough OF? That's how I read your post. Forgive me if I'm wrong.

The Twins have stated they believe he has the ability to play at least a decent OF right now. Obviously, the more he plays it the better he gets. But if he's as talented athletically as he is, reported, wouldn't you want to see him in the infield as long as you could to see if he could at least cover the infield like Marwin or Marte or Kiki Hernandez?

His future is BRIGHT.  BUT, most forget he's only been a pro for 1 season. How about we just let him play ball for at least half a season. This kid could be awesome  a year from now, if not mid season. But let it play.

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Are you saying he isn't playing enough OF? That's how I read your post. Forgive me if I'm wrong.

The Twins have stated they believe he has the ability to play at least a decent OF right now. Obviously, the more he plays it the better he gets. But if he's as talented athletically as he is, reported, wouldn't you want to see him in the infield as long as you could to see if he could at least cover the infield like Marwin or Marte or Kiki Hernandez?

His future is BRIGHT.  BUT, most forget he's only been a pro for 1 season. How about we just let him play ball for at least half a season. This kid could be awesome  a year from now, if not mid season. But let it play.

I stated that I really like Larnach's hitting future, not crazy about his fielding but it's good enough to play the corner. 

With all the infielders they brought in and Lewis need to step up at SS together the lack of depth at viable true MLB ready CF that where we need Martin. He's a prospect he can never have enough playing time where he needs to be playing CF.

What gets me especially worried is that Cave is getting some soft ABs playing CF. In the past Cave had a 40 man spot and monopolized the position as Buxton sub. Due to this we lost many games and prevented other more qualified in house players like Wade and Baddoo a spot on the 40 man or anyone else from outside to better man that position because of their "love affair" with Cave. If Martin is qualified to play CF, please play him there and quit fooling around with Cave. Saying that Martin is good enough so he doesn't need ST time doesn't fly with me. So why does Buxton need time there?

would be curious to hear/read how the intrasquad games are going and player positions in those games.  Maybe coaches are doing just what we are discussing to gauge readiness to be able to play all over the diamond at a high level vs just being so-so.  

on different topic, hate that there are no longer MLB free games of the week for spring training.  MLB and fans getting the shaft for watching games till season starts.  Oh well, not ready to pony up $100+ bills yet for season pass