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Heiny reacted to Hunter McCall for an article, Reflections on the 2023 Twins Season from a Time TravelerAfter reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out.
What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.
Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration
One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?
Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs
Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.
Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential
When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.
Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline
When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.
A Star is Born
While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.
Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees.
One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!
What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, How Following the Mauer Usage Model Could Produce an MVP Season for BuxtonWinning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot.
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP.
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field. In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season.
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.
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Heiny reacted to Greggory Masterson for an article, On Drama and DepthOn a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
I am Carlos’s bamboo ankle.
Yes, the Twins lost the second-most days to injury in the 2022 season, but that isn’t the whole truth. As a skeptic or a naysayer may remind you, players like Jhon Romero and Randy Dobnak led the team in days lost. However, the more significant issue was their lack of health down the stretch.
Somehow, the Twins still had a share of first place on September 4. No matter how they got there, they could win the AL Central—if they could keep pace with Cleveland. There were eight crucial games down the stretch against Cleveland, and the Twins won only one.
I am Alex’s shortened ulna.
Some days are the sort of day where the sun only comes up to humiliate you. In those eight games against Cleveland, the depleted Twins were without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (he did start two games but was on a broken foot), Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Miguel Sano.
On aggregate, the lineup looked like this, more or less, presented with games started during that stretch, 2022 fWAR per 550 plate appearances, and 2022 OPS, for those of you who are statistically inclined:
2B) Luis Arraez (7, 2.9 fWAR, .795 OPS)
SS) Carlos Correa (8, 4.1, .834)
1B) Jose Miranda (8, 1.3, .751)
LF) Nick Gordon (7, 1.9, .743)
3B) Gio Urshela (8, 2.4, .767)
DH) Gary Sanchez (5, 1.5, .659)
RF) Jake Cave (7, 1.6, .644)
CF) Gilberto Celestino (5, 0.0, .615)
C) Sandy Leon (4, -2.5, .502)
Starter fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .701
Bench:
Matt Wallner (4, 0.8, .709)
Kyle Garlick (2, 0.3, .717)
Mark Contreras (2, -0.9, .441)
Jermaine Palacios (2, -6.4, .413)
Total fWAR: 6.9; OPS: .661
As mentioned, Kepler also started two games, and even Billy Hamilton got a start during that stretch. Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken, though. That group is not a winning team, nor is it even a treading-water team.
It is unreasonable to believe any team will play at a 90-win pace with six Opening Day starters and two top reserves on the IL. But fans can expect at least a fight. Club decision-makers should, too.
I am Trevor’s herniated core.
Since then, the front office has traded for Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor, who started at shortstop and centerfield, respectively, for poor teams last year. They signed 2020 Silver Slugger second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez join the squad with a mostly healthy injury history.
These additions should help—in theory. If the exact string of injuries were to occur again, the lineup could look something like this in 2023 (presented with 2023 fWAR per 550 plate appearances and OPS, projected by FanGraphs ATC):
1B) Miranda (2.5 fWAR, .743 OPS)
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Correa (4.4, .811)
LF) Gordon (1.8, .719)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Gallo (2.0, .732)
C) Vazquez (2.6, .671)
DH Wallner (-1.0, .669)
Starter projected fWAR: 17.0; OPS: .710
Bench:
C) Tony Wolters* (0.0, .538)
UT) Willi Castro* (2.6, .648)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
IF) Edouard Julien* (2.3, .698)**
Total projected fWAR: 21.9; OPS: .686
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metrics, so ZiPS was used here
Other players who could be plugged in here include Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Elliot Soto, Kyle Garlick, Tyler White, and the rest of the veteran catchers. Some noticeable beneficial changes emerge here.
Wallner, Gallo, and Vazquez effectively replace Cave, Sanchez, and Leon as bats in the lineup. Taylor moves Celestino to a reserve role. The losses of Arraez and Urshela hurt, but Solano and Wallner aren’t awful replacements.
Another factor is the hypothetical development of upper-level-minors prospects. Wallner, for example, is a carryover from the rock-bottom roster, but in theory, he should be better than he was last year. Buzz around Julien is heating up, and he may be an impact bat in 2023.
That isn’t a given, though. Other guys like Lee and Martin may even play their way into a role that would move Solano or Farmer back to the bench, but it’s not prudent to count eggs before they hatch.
I am Jorge’s trick ankle.
If we were to exclude anyone with injury question marks, Correa would be out of the picture, replaced by someone like Martin. There would be some scrambling of the lineups, and it would hurt. If Lee is Major League ready, it might not hurt as much, though without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing, like the first monkey shot into space.
I am Royce’s twice-exploded knee.
What if every single starter on the 2023 roster is injured? How would the roster look? We can add Gordon, Gallo, Miranda, and Vazquez to the list. On the bright side, Larnach, Lewis, and Jeffers are back in the mix.
1B) Julien* (2.3 fWAR, .698 OPS)**
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Lewis (1.7, .732)
LF) Larnach (0.2, .681)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Wallner (-1.0, .669)
C) Jeffers (2.4, .684)
DH) Castro* (2.6, .648)
Starter projected fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .684
Bench:
C) Wolters* (0.0, .538)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
OF) Garlick (0.6, .675)
UT) Martin (0.7, .622)
Total projected fWAR: 14.3; OPS: .664
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metric, so ZiPS was used here
I’m unaware of a team that can do much more than tread water without any of their starters, but this roster is one way it could shake out. Some may say that it looks better than last year’s September roster. Some may think comparing two bad teams isn’t worth considering. Others may believe that losing all hope is freedom.
I am Ryan’s contused thumb.
The goal was clear this offseason: build depth. Even if the Mona Lisa is falling apart, they must do everything possible to protect against a complete collapse, as we saw in 2022. Whoever takes the field needs to put up the fight club officials have come to expect from their guys.
It remains to be seen whether or not they built up enough depth to withstand the throes of a season. Perhaps this is what happens when you build a roster on health question marks. Perhaps no amount of depth can protect a team against losing half of their key pieces.
I’m not here to determine whether or not they did what they needed to; I just wanted to share this back-of-the-napkin mental exercise. And melodramatic prose.
I am Byron’s … everywhere.
Only after disaster can we be resurrected. It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything. Nothing is static; everything is evolving; everything is falling apart.
Do you think that Falvey, Levine, and co did enough?
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Heiny reacted to Theo Tollefson for an article, Joe Pohlad and the Next Generation of Twins OwnershipJim Pohlad will still be involved with the Twins to a degree but as his 70th birthday approaches next month, he decided it was time for him to pass his day-to-day roles to Joe Pohlad. Jim Pohlad will still be the team’s representative in ownership for any league matters.
Many Twins fans ponder what will be different with Joe Pohlad compared to Jim Pohlad. From the first three months on the job, it’s already apparent to some fans that Joe is more public-facing and involved with the front office.
For starters, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote in his piece on Joe Pohlad (published February 14) that, unlike his uncle and grandfather’s time as the Twins chairman, he will be keeping an office at Target Field.
On top of that, Joe Pohlad was heavily involved in making sure the Twins brought back superstar shortstop Carlos Correa and gave him the largest contract in team history.
“I can think of no better way to articulate the seamless transition from Jim, his uncle to Joe than what we just went through,” said Derek Falvey during Correa’s press conference on January 11. “Ultimately going back to March and the contract we came up with, and then this offseason. Joe's been a part of those conversations for the last five plus years, at least that I've been here. So I expected that but Joe's patience was matched in a similar way, what Scott [Boras] and Carlos were showing, but also that persistence and that desire to find a way to get to this outcome.”
Later during the press conference, Twins Daily co-owner John Bonnes followed up on this quote from Falvey asking Joe Pohlad if the large contract for Correa was a sign of things to come with future free agent deals.
Joe Pohlad responded saying, “We'll take that on a case-by-case basis. Like Derek said earlier, we're in constant communication, and we're always looking at ways to make our team better. So if those opportunities come forward, then we'll evaluate that [them] then.”
While Joe Pohlad has had a more active role in team transactions than his uncle in the last five years according to Falvey, he still does not want to become or be seen as an owner “who’s always meddling,” as Hayes wrote in the same article on February 14.
Joe Pohlad’s interaction in the team’s baseball operations since returning to the front office in 2018 has not come without experience. He spent time as an assistant in the baseball operations department beginning in 2007. His experience there, which not many owners in Major League Baseball have had, sheds light that he is willing to shed the common trope Twins fans attribute to his family; the “Cheap Pohlads.”
When asked individually at the January 11 press conference if Correa’s re-signing shows critical fans that ownership is committed to building the team for a championship, Joe Pohlad responded, “I hope so. I think how we view it, or at least how I view it, is this the best route for us in order to get to where we want to be, which is a competitive team that can compete for a World Series?. Ultimately, the goal is to win and is every move we make going to add to that and achieve that goal? And this [signing] is gonna do that.”
Joe Pohlad was built up in the Twins organization to be fitted for this role. He’s worked in a variety of roles within the Twins in anticipation of the day when this role was bestowed on him.
In an era of Major League Baseball where the reputations of team owners usually bring negative connotations to their franchises, Joe Pohlad may be the outlier. Especially when compared to the ownership of teams such as the Houston Astros’ Jim Crane, the Cincinnati Reds’ Phil Castellini, and the Baltimore Orioles’ John Angelos.
Joe Pohlad is in a similar boat as Castellini and Angelos with other family members (specifically the fathers of Castellini and Angelos), who are still living and have the ownership of the team in their name. Unlike the two though, Joe Pohlad has not made any comments that have had fanbases question their commitments to their franchises or the game of baseball.
As the first full season with Joe Pohlad at the helm warms up in Ft. Myers for spring training, he has demonstrated many reasons for Twins fans to hope things are changing for the better. Maybe even enough to made the phrase, “Cheap Pohlads” be heard less often as fans return to Target Field for the 2023 season.
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, The Natural: Brooks Lee Is Special, and the Twins Know It"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level.
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids.
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings.
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday.
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades.
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick.
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick.
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings.
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season. Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come.
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro.
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly.
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far.
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.
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Heiny reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Who Is the Twins Biggest Rival for 2023?Of course, it is fair to suggest that the team to beat is the reigning division champions. Terry Francona’s Cleveland Guardians won the division with 92 wins a season ago. Despite Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins having led the division for most of the year, it was the Chicago White Sox who finished second with 81 wins. The Twins should be expected to be better than the 78 wins they posted in 2022, and if they’re going to make a postseason return, they’ll need to overcome both of their top two competitors.
Looking at the projections, there seems to be a consensus that both the Twins and Guardians are better than Chicago. That being said, the divide between all parties is hardly substantial. Fangraphs has the Twins projected to win 83 games, equal to the Guardians, with the White Sox tallying just 80. PECOTA has Cleveland and Minnesota winning 88 games with the White Sox finishing with just 79 victories. Either way, the teams remained grouped.
For the sake of rivalry, it has always felt like Chicago had more invested in their team than the Guardians did. Even when Cleveland was making their deep postseason runs, attendance at Progressive Field has been anything but notable. The White Sox fanbase, while they have been down for quite some time, have been plenty vocal in support of their club. Aside from Jensen Lewis’ infamous “Bye Twins” tweet, there has been little back and forth between the Twins and Guardians fan bases.
Cleveland’s blueprint, dating back to when Derek Falvey was part of that organization, has always been pitching. Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez have emerged as offensive stars, but Francisco Lindor is long gone and the outfield has been awful for quite some time. They will trot out Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale on a regular basis, but this isn’t the same peak rotation that took Cleveland to the World Series in 2016.
Last year it looked as though the White Sox would again be the cream of the AL Central crop, but manager Tony La Russa continued to get in their way. Making odd decisions and looking like the game had passed him by, there were plenty of opportunities for Chicago to execute when they did not. Injuries also kept the White Sox down last season, and we have yet to see Luis Robert put it together for a full season.
In terms of additions, the Guardians brought in first basemen Josh Bell and catcher Mike Zunino. Chicago grabbed Andrew Benintendi for their outfield, and Mike Clevinger for the starting rotation. Unfortunately for them, it appears Clevinger may not be eligible to play, and closer Liam Hendriks is currently battling cancer.
It’s hard to think that anyone but the Twins did more during the offseason. While Carlos Correa isn’t necessarily an addition, bringing him back was a must. Getting an arm like Pablo Lopez is huge, and adding the likes of both Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez should help plenty. Adding depth in both Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano are nice pieces to call upon as well.
You can’t fault the projection systems for suggesting that the division still runs through Cleveland. Until they are knocked off, and Chicago for that matter as well, that should be the expectation. Minnesota has positioned themselves with their best roster in years, however, and this should be the season they return to postseason play.
Despite what Cleveland brings to the table, Chicago’s offensive talent may be the most worrisome foe. Andrew Vaughn will take over at first base for Jose Abreu, but the biggest change could be Pedro Grifol (former Twins prospect) leading the group. If the skipper can make less questionable decisions, and the clubhouse can gel, it should be the White Sox that push Minnesota the most. If that’s going to be the case, expect plenty of chirping from the South Siders along the way.
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Kyle Farmer Can Be a Crucial Fit for the TwinsKyle Farmer knew he was going to get traded this past offseason. It was only a matter of where.
"I'm happy I'm here," he said, looking around the bustling Twins clubhouse ahead of Tuesday's game against Atlanta.
Maybe a little bit less happy than he was at the time of the move. It's no secret that he loves playing shortstop, where he was Cincinnati's primary starter for most of the past two seasons. Farmer was reportedly "blindsided" when the Reds moved him to third base last August, favoring prospect Jose Barrero at short.
“It sucks,” Farmer said at the time. “I love short. I’ve loved short my entire life. It’s part of the game, I guess, and they see me at third. Hopefully I play well enough to maybe play third here next year.”
Well, Farmer won't be playing third in Cincy this year, but he should see plenty of action there for the Twins. He started at the hot corner against Boston on Monday after making his spring debut at his beloved shortstop in Saturday's home opener at Hammond Stadium. He'll get the nod at second base on Wednesday against the Phillies.
Farmer was lined up as the de facto starting shortstop when the Twins acquired him from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Casey Legumina on November 18th, and as the offseason progressed, it looked increasingly like Farmer would indeed assume primary duties as at least an interim fixture. Free agent shortstop options came flying off the board while Minnesota's pursuit of Carlos Correa appeared doomed.
As it turns out, this pursuit was in fact not doomed. Correa signed with the Twins in January and just like that, Farmer's hopes of a full-time return to the shortstop position were dashed. But for his part, he doesn't express too much consternation about it.
"Love short, love second, and I also love third," he said. "I feel more comfortable playing second probably over anywhere besides short if I had to choose, but third base comes naturally to me too."
Farmer also has experience at first base, which seems relevant in light of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Kirilloff's situation, but it's clear he fundamentally enjoys playing around the two-bag. "Playing up the middle it’s like, I’m having fun in baseball, it’s not like a job."
He will have a job to do for the Twins, and an important one. Farmer has a pretty good idea of how the team plans to use him.
"Someone needs a day off or a lefty’s pitching or maybe they put me in certain situations but I expect to play all over the infield."
What about the outfield? There's been some chatter about that possibility, given the need for righty-swinging depth in the corner spots, but Farmer's MLB experience in the outfield is extremely scarce, amounting to total four innings in left field back in 2020 and 2021. That said, he's open to the possibility.
"I haven’t done it yet in spring training but that option’s open," Farmer shared. "As long as I’m in the lineup hitting it doesn’t matter where I play defensively."
And that's what it really comes down to: is he hitting? Farmer's strong splits against lefties are an obvious point of appeal after the Twins scuffled versus southpaws last year, but he might struggle to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis if he's not at least holding his own against righties. Last year he slashed just .235/.291/.320 against them.
Offensively, Farmer said he's focused this spring on using his hips and lower body more in his swing, gaining more consistency with his load move. The 32-year-old admitted that as he gets older, it takes him a bit longer to find his timing and get in a groove. Luckily (for him, not us), there's still plenty of spring left.
Under control for two more seasons, Farmer has the ability to impact the Twins in a range of different ways, especially if his work at the plate leads to an improvement upon his sub-par overall career OPS+ of 85. (For comparison, Max Kepler finished at 93 in a career-worst 2022 season.)
One intriguing tool in his defensive versatility kit that hasn't yet been discussed? Farmer originally came up as a catcher, and played more than 80 innings there as recently as 2019. The Twins are a little iffy on catching depth beyond Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, so Farmer's experience there feels somewhat relevant, separating him from your standard "emergency catcher."
To be clear, the Twins are still treating him as such. Rocco Baldelli was assertive in stating that Farmer is only a break-the-glass option as opposed to a third catcher – "He will catch in an emergency and that’s it." Still, it's awfully nice to have someone in that role who is a legit backstop, and it takes away any level of hesitation about carrying only two catchers on the roster, or DH-ing one of Vázquez and Jeffers against lefties.
Compared to catching, Baldelli was a bit less rigid on the idea of Farmer getting some time in the outfield, although it doesn't sound like he's planning around it.
"I don’t think so," the manager said when asked if he anticipated any appearances from Farmer in the outfield this spring. "We generally will make adjustments the last couple weeks of spring training depending on what the roster looks like or any injury concerns around the team, and then if someone has to get some extra work or go play some positions they haven’t, we’ll do that at that point."
Incidentally, Trevor Larnach was scratched from Tuesday's game with lower-body soreness. Meanwhile, the third baseman Miranda has only been able to play DH so far this spring due to a throwing shoulder issue, and we still have yet to see second baseman Jorge Polanco in a spring game as he works back from a knee injury. Carlos Correa is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut at shortstop on Wednesday, serving as Farmer's double-play partner, but injury concerns will inevitably loom over him and his ankle. As we've discussed, the first base and catcher positions have their own question marks.
Given all of this, it's easy to see how the flexible Farmer – who's been very durable (he would've ranked third on the Twins in plate appearances last year, and fourth in 2021) – is an extremely nice piece of have on hand, with improved offense almost feeling like a bonus on top of what he can provide with his glove all over the field.
For a team that was so often forced to use players out of position or push them beyond their station last year, Farmer is a fantastic roster fit. A floor-raising player like him might not be the most exciting, but following a season where the bottom fell out, it's a vital necessity.
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Heiny reacted to Brock Beauchamp for an article, Twins Daily Community Awards: The 2022-2023 OffseasonA few times a year, we hit the pause button and take a moment to talk about and reward our most popular community members and the contributions they bring to Twins Daily. During what was (far and away) the wildest Twins off-season of my lifetime, the community exploded with content.
You wrote 123 blogs from when the Astros hoisted a trophy through the day the Twins took that field in their first split-squad games in Florida.
123 blogs. Incredible.
Let’s take a look at some of the other numbers:
During the off-season, 424 people registered to comment on Twins Daily Over that time, 806 unique people contributed content to the site Users started 1,045 topics In those topics, you wrote 26,948 posts In those posts, you awarded 55,357 reactions to other users All of those are record numbers. Every single one. Mind-blowing.
Our most prolific poster was @chpettit19, with @Mike Sixel coming in a close second. Thanks to both of you for your continued quality contributions to the community!
Let’s get to the awards, shall we?
Most Popular Post
The Luis Arraez trade was almost certainly the most controversial of the winter, and @Puckett34’s thoughtful take on the advantages and difficulties of losing a fan-favorite player was the most popular post of the off-season. This award usually goes out to someone who swoops in with the snark, so seeing it go to a serious post is a bit of a surprise. Well done, Puckett34!
We award you a thoughtful and heartfelt prize for your thoughtful and heartfelt take on the trade: a laser-etched wood photo frame of Nickelback lead singer Chad Kroeger holding an autographed Nick Punto baseball card.
Honorary Mention
Losing Carlos Correa to the Mets was the low point of the Twins' off-season. In the thread detailing his surprise signing (not-signing) with the other New York team, @Nashvilletwin wrote what many of us were feeling; baseball is broken, and MLB seems not to care. Unsurprisingly, this post was wildly popular with the Twins Daily community, earning it the second most popular post of the offseason!
Most Popular Blog Entry
From the fan perspective, manager Rocco Baldelli is the most controversial person in the Twins dugout. Where much of the fanbase blames Baldelli for baseball ills that transcend what happens in Target Field, @Nick Hanzlik takes the opposite approach by suggesting Baldelli is the perfect manager for today’s game. Some people agreed, which is why it’s the most popular blog entry of the Twins Daily off-season!
Congratulations, Nick, and for your efforts, you shall be awarded this (not at all garish) limited edition Spring Training 2023 Minnesota Twins bobblehead!
Honorary Mention
Want a surefire way to create conversation? Take Mount Rushmore, add your local sports team, and fire off some opinions. That’s exactly what @Luke Thompson did in writing up a blog about the four players on the Twins’ Mount Rushmore, earning the second most popular blog of the off-season!
As I mentioned earlier, Twins Daily broke every record over the off-season: more users, more comments, more blogs, and more everything. And a big reason for that is the users mentioned above and all of you who comment daily on the site and add your thoughts, insights, and opinions on the Minnesota Twins.
That’s why Twins Daily is the best place to talk Twins baseball. And now it’s time to start watching some baseball and our Minnesota Twins!
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Tomorrow Is Not Promised: A Recent History of Twins No. 1 ProspectsMLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.
You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years.
Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.
"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''
His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans.
Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.
In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.
A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.
Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years
Byron Buxton: 2013-16
Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.
As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic.
While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.
Fernando Romero: 2017
Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.
Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.
Royce Lewis: 2018-20
When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter.
Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.
Alex Kirilloff: 2021
No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.
He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist.
Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.
"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."
Austin Martin: 2022
The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.
He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent.
Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road.
At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.
Brooks Lee: 2023
Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.
By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment.
Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.
People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is.
No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.
Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.
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Heiny reacted to Jeremy Nygaard for an article, College Season Kicks OffThroughout the next five months, we'll be doing all we can to help keep your informed on the player pool for the MLB Draft. The Twins were the biggest movers in the new lottery system and are now bound to select a player that should immediately become a Top 100 prospect in baseball. Last year's draft was especially hitter-heavy at the top as only four pitchers went in the top 19 picks, which included a huge surprise at #3 (Kumar Rocker) and another huge surprise at #7 (Cade Horton). This year's draft has a better mix. And that should be a lot of fun for Twins fans.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Dollander enters the season as most pundit's top collegiate pitching prospect and a likely Top 5 pick. As we've seen repeatedly in the past, trajectories of college pitchers can change in a hurry. In his debut this past weekend, Dollander threw 81 pitches (only 47 strikes), but recorded seven strikeouts. His numbers weren't great in 4 2/3 innings, as he allowed two runs (including a home run) and walked and hit a batter. His impressive fastball was reportedly in the mid-90s consistently but never hit triple figures like it can. It's only his first start, though, so there is plenty of time left.
"Time" has been a huge friend to Dollander. As a 6' 3", 180 pound high-schooler, Dollander went undrafted and pitched his freshman year for Georgia Southern. That time as an Eagle taught Dollander how to eat and lift weights properly, improving his body (adding 20 pounds) and striking out 64 in 49 innings. He did walk 28, but got plenty of interest in the transfer portal, including from the team he shut down in his collegiate debut, Tennessee.
Now entering his second season as a Volunteer, Dollander is considered by some to be the college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg and that's high praise. The comp list beyond that is impressive: Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Jack Leiter. Any time you have the ability to add a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, you have to strongly consider it.
Paul Skenes, RHP LSU
Like Doogie says below, Skenes struck out 12 in six innings in his season debut. Skenes (6'6", 235) also has a big mid-90s fastball which nearly reaches triple-digits. Since arriving at LSU, Skenes has changed his slider by working with noted slider-guy Wes Johnson (sound familiar?) and it's getting rave reviews.
Skenes, like current Twin Griffin Jax, attended the Air Force out of high school. While Jax remained at the academy through graduation and his commitment to the military delayed and interrupted his professional career, Skenes will not have any extenuating commitments. Cadets are allowed to leave before beginning classes their junior year without penalty.
His professional future is brightest on the mound, but Skenes is also pretty good in the batters box. In those two years at Air Force, Skenes hit .367 while smacking 24 home runs with 81 RBI. You're probably thinking, "oh, so he plays first base too" and you're not completely wrong, because he's only done a little bit of that. Aside from pitching, he's been primarily a catcher(!) who committed to college to do just that.
There is no doubt it will be interesting to follow Skenes through this season at LSU. If all goes well, there's no reason he wouldn't be in the conversation for the 5th pick (or the 1st pick for that matter).
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
The final pitcher that will be mentioned today struck out six in five innings over the weekend, while allowing two runs on four hits and two walks. Waldrep transferred to Florida from Southern Miss and has an electric fastball (96-99 mph), a high-80s slider and a mid-80s 12-to-6 curveball.
Waldrep helped lead Southern Miss to the Super Regionals before fleeing to the SEC. An All-American, Waldrep struck out 156 in 106 1/3 innings in two seasons (one as a starter) as a Golden Eagle. Slightly smaller than Dollander and much smaller than Skenes, Waldrep still has good size (6' 2, 205) and hails from the noted hot-bed state of Georgia.
Pitching for a Top-10 team, there's no reason to think that Waldrep won't get plenty of opportunities to pitch in front of big crowds, lots of scouts and in big games for the Gators this year. We could certainly see his trajectory trend upwards.
While these are just three names to follow for the season, there will be many, many more. The SEC, specifically and as seen above, is littered with potential top-10 picks.
Dylan Crews, OF, LSU and Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida are largely considered to be the two best draft-eligible college hitting prospects. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss is arguably the top shortstop prospect. Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt is the most exciting prospect in all of college baseball with elite speed and the ability to put bat on ball, but Ben Revere-type power. (Heck, that might not be a terrible floor comp for Bradfield). The whole conference seems abnormally loaded (and not just for the 2023 draft either).
Twins Daily will keep pumping out draft content through the spring and into the summer leading up to the mid-July draft.
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Heiny reacted to Hunter McCall for an article, Twins Prospect Austin Martin Still Has Plenty to OfferWhen Austin Martin was drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 MLB First-Year Player Draft, it was considered one of the steals of the draft. Martin was viewed as the best pure hitter in the draft, and most people thought he would go number two overall behind Spencer Torkelson.
Fast forward to July 2021. The Twins were having a disappointing season at 43-61 and decided to sell off some talent at the deadline. They accomplished this task by trading starting pitcher Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays in exchange for Simeon Woods Richardson and Martin, the number 16 overall prospect then, according to MLB.com. When Martin entered the organization following the trade, he immediately became the Twins top prospect, jumping everyone in the farm system including Royce Lewis. Martin was considered by all an elite prospect as recently as last spring, so it’s difficult to give up on him following just one down year.
Martin's ups and downs are well documented, and he has tumbled off most top prospect boards, but does he have the ability to re-enter the conversation of future Twins infield studs with Lewis and Brooks Lee? Can he use spring training to prove that he belongs?
For the most part, we won't talk much about the past, but Martin did finish 2022 on a high note, attributing an .827 OPS in September. Another encouraging area for Martin happens to be an eerily similar high note experienced by Lewis in 2019 when he was seen as a failing prospect, which was his performance in the Arizona Fall League.
The Arizona Fall League takes place after the standards season in the minors wraps up and allows prospects to get extra games before the winter. In 2019, Lewis participated in the AFL and won the league MVP award with a slash line of .353/.411/.565 (.975). His performance was exciting for Twins fans because he struggled at the plate in the minors that season. As he started to slide down top prospect boards, there was worry that the once number-one overall pick might be a bust. In the AFL, Lewis experimented with eliminating his high leg kick, and the results were promising.
With the 2020 minor league season canceled and Lewis tearing his ACL in 2021, the AFL was the last action we saw from him leading into the 2022 season.
Although Lewis was limited to 46 games due to another tear in the same ACL, he mashed in 2022. Whether in Triple-A or the MLB, Lewis was explosive at the plate, putting to rest the doubt that he could live up to the lofty expectations that come with being drafted number one overall.
In 2021, Martin experienced similar success as Lewis once had in the AFL. In 21 games, Martin put together a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line and added 10 stolen bases. He adjusted his approach at the plate and hitting mechanics, and although the sample size was small, the results showed immediately.
Martin is undoubtedly riding some positive momentum heading into spring training. Still, a quick look at the future outlook of the Twins' defense shows a rather crowded group that may make it difficult for Martin to find a permanent spot. His top two positions are shortstop and center field, but those two spots are held down at the major league level by Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the next six years.
Lewis, Lee, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff also have to have assumed roles in the Twins' plans, but there is something that Martin possesses that could make him more valuable to the team and give him a place should he prove he belongs.
Martin is a phenomenal athlete with enough versatility to play anywhere on the field. If he can get himself back on track and force the Twins to find a role for him, he would excellently fit the mold of a super-utility man, just as Marwin Gonzalez did for the Twins in 2019 and 2020. Finding a defensive home for Martin may be easy, as he possesses the athleticism and versatility to play almost anywhere on the field.
Spring Training 2023 will be a very interesting and important one for Austin Martin. He is a supremely talented baseball player with plenty of tools that could make him an above-average everyday player at the MLB level. Martin has the opportunity over the next two months to prove that his adjustments in the AFL were legitimate and that he possesses defensive versatility. If he can do so, he could force himself back into the Twins' plans and re-enter the conversation of top prospect with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee.
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Twins Daily 2023 Top 20 Prospects: Recap & AnalysisThe purpose of these rankings is to take stock of the Twins farm system leading up to the start of the season. This year we asked 10 different Twins Daily writers, all of whom follow the minors closely, to share their choices for the current top 30 Twins prospects. Then we aggregated them into the list that's been gradually rolled out here over the past few weeks.
This is a snapshot in time. Prospect rankings are never static, and in order to better follow the movement that occurs over time, last year we launched the Twins Daily Prospect Tracker. It's updated monthly throughout the season with new stats, insights, and re-rankings. I recommend bookmarking that page and checking back often if you love to follow the next generation of Twins talent.
For today, we're going to dive deep on that next generation and how it's shaping the future of the franchise. First, here's a rundown of this year's top 20 rankings – you can click on each player's name to find a profile on him from one of our writers.
Minnesota Twins 2023 Top 20 Prospects
20. Misael Urbina, OF: Has come along slowly since signing as a top int'l talent out of DR in 2018, but still 20 with big tools.
19. Jose Rodriguez, OF: Opened eyes with a spectacular and rare power display in the Dominican Summer League.
18. Tanner Schobel, 2B: 2022 second-round pick saw his college power spike evaporate in pro debut, fading his hype.
17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP: Slider-slinging 22-year-old seems destined to break through in full-time relief role.
16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Stellar track record keeps him on the radar following a disastrous year at Triple-A.
15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Maybe the best raw stuff in the organization, but TJ surgery will sideline him again this year.
14. Noah Miller, SS: Outstanding fielder needs to find some semblance of offensive game other than drawing walks.
13. David Festa, RHP: Former 13th-rounder's domination of Single-A sparks hope for another deep-draft pitching find.
12. Yasser Mercedes, OF: Club's biggest int'l signing last summer flashed all five tools in highly impressive rookie-ball debut.
11. Matt Wallner, OF: His off-the-charts raw power will play in the bigs if he can stay relatively disciplined at plate.
10. Austin Martin, SS: Huge dropoff after topping this list a year ago, but the speedy OBP specialist can rebound.
9. Louie Varland, RHP: Continues to outperform his stuff, but also, the stuff continues to get better for hard-working SP.
8. Jose Salas, INF: Twins picked up a dynamic young athlete via Arraez trade in this versatile switch-hitting infielder.
7. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Slid to Twins in second round of latest draft coming off elbow surgery, but has frontline SP traits.
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Reached majors at age 22 following lights-out campaign between AA/AAA.
5. Edouard Julien, 2B: He has raked in the minors with an ultra-patient approach, and is knocking on MLB door.
4. Marco Raya, RHP: Word is out on the best-kept secret in Twins system, who dazzled in pro debut at Fort Myers.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Flashed superstar talent and production during full-season debut cut short by knee injury.
2. Royce Lewis, SS: Cemented legitimacy during a convincing return to action before being struck by another torn ACL.
1. Brooks Lee, SS: Drafted eighth overall with a bat that pretty much looked MLB-ready as soon as he reached the pro field.
A True Deadlock at the Top
The most fascinating dynamic of this year's rankings was the choice between Lee and Lewis for number one. I cannot possibly overstate how accurate the word "deadlock" is in describing the lack of separation between these high-end talents in our ranking process.
The results from tabulating our panel of 10 voters placed the two in an exact tie: five voters picked Lewis, five picked Lee. In order to try and swing things one way or the other, we reached out for off-the-record opinions on the matter from a variety of trusted sources: scouting contacts, prospect analysts, baseball people inside the Twins organization and out.
You know what came back? Pretty much a 50/50 split exactly. Almost everyone expressed a variation of the same sentiment: It's really hard to compare the two directly, because it all comes down to the upside & risk versus safety & floor equation. "If I had to choose, I guess I'd go with X."
We all want to dream on the lofty upside Lewis still possesses: the potential for an electric power/speed combo from shortstop or center field, combined with character and charisma on the Jeter Scale. But no one can ignore the realities of a career that's been sabotaged by injuries, the latest of which undeniably clouds his future outlook.
How do you properly account for this in projecting him as a major-league player? And how do you compare him to someone like Lee, who probably has a lower overall ceiling but also has one of the highest floors you could ask for in a prospect? Lee looked so polished and adept during his pro debut after signing last year that he found his way to Wichita for the Double-A playoffs and was up to the task.
Lee makes it look really easy, and that's the highest compliment you can pay a 21-year-old barely out of college and facing experienced pro competition.
Ultimately, we went with Lee as our choice for as the top Twins prospect of 2023, because the feedback we received seemed to tilt ever-so-slightly in that direction and because the majority of publications we chart our rankings against – MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic (both Keith Law and Aaron Gleeman) – have Lee in front of Lewis.
But if there's a strong consensus to be found around these two it's this: the Twins are very lucky to have them both.
Restocking the Low Minors with Upside
Lee and Lewis both contribute to a robust top end of the pipeline, joining the likes of Julien, Woods Richardson, Varland, Martin, and Wallner as quality prospects who could essentially be ready to make an MLB impact at any time. But a number of breakthroughs from recent draft classes and recent high-profile international signings have populated the lower levels with promising young talent.
This was missing last year, when essentially all 10 of our top prospects were in the high minors and approaching MLB-readiness, save for Chase Petty who got traded shortly after we published. The emergences of teenaged players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Raya, and Mercedes – bolstered by the acquisition of Salas in the Luis Arraez trade – have done wonders for the lower levels of this system, and the franchise's long-term talent landscape.
Still Lacking Catcher Talent
The lack of standout catching prospects in Minnesota's system is something I noted last year, even before Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt were traded away. It's now even more conspicuous. The Twins have sought to backfill at the MLB level with veterans like Gary Sánchez and now Christian Vázquez, but the future of this position continues to hinge on Ryan Jeffers, who has proven little at age 25.
Not only were there zero catching prospects in our top 20, but if you zoom out to the top 30, none are found in the 21-through-30 range either. The highest I've seen a catcher ranked by anyone is Noah Cardenas, who was 25th on Gleeman's top 40 list, but Cardenas was profiled there as a "future backup with some starter upside."
Another tough year for Jeffers, with Vázquez under control through 2025 but turning 33 in August, would leave the organization's outlook pretty flimsy behind the plate unless new names emerge.
Rebound Scenarios Present X-factors
Aside from some of the big risers, the most stark movements from last year's rankings were the dramatic downfalls of Martin (#1 last year, #10 this year) and Balazovic (#4 last year, #16 this year). Those are tough blows for the system and help explain why it's generally viewed as middling compared to the league. (Law ranked them 19th out of 30 organizations at The Athletic earlier this month.)
The flip side is this: it's only one season, and these players are not far removed from being viewed as viable (and imminent) difference-makers with convincing track records. Martin and Balazovic are legit talents, and both will be 24 this year with ample experience in the high minors. A turnaround for either could quickly thrust them into the big-league picture.
Who's Your Pick to Click in 2023?
I asked this at the conclusion of last year's recap article, so I'll send it your way again. Who is your pick to click and make a huge jump in the rankings in 2023?
Last year I the name I submitted was Marco Raya, and he went from Honorable Mentions to #4 on our list, so that went well. This year I will go with Keoni Cavaco, who was merely an Honorable Mention this year having fallen off the radar in three unproductive seasons since being drafted 13th overall in 2019.
Cavaco wasn't good last year, but he did seem to take a step forward and he remains an athletic and toolsy infielder. I like him to escape the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and put together a strong age-21 season that vaults him back into the top 20.
How about you?
Past Rankings
Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2017 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2016 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2015 Top Prospects Twins Daily Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS.
Baseball-Reference Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS.
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Heiny reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Is This Where Byron Buxton’s Injuries End?Let’s first start by relieving pressure from new trainer Nick Paparesta. I don’t think anyone in the Twins organization views him as a savior of sorts, but there is no denying that his addition comes on the heels of a 2022 that saw a ridiculous amount of injury. Introducing new training techniques, the hope for Minnesota would be that players remain on the field more.
No one is more important in that endeavor than Byron Buxton.
On April 7, the Twins seventh game of the season in 2022, Buxton led off the game with a double against the Boston Red Sox. When sliding into second base, he jammed his knee, pounded his fist, and it looked as though his season may be over. Surprisingly, he missed just six games and returned on April 21 against the Kansas City Royals. Two days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he was 4-for-4 with a homer and looked like a superhero. The problem was that he never felt the same.
Routinely, Buxton found himself on the trainer’s table. He was getting fluid drained from his knee frequently. There was fear of infection. There were countless hours of rehab. In short, the superstar from Baxley, Georgia, was doing his best impression to look like the Superman from Smallville, Kansas.
From the point he injured the knee against the Red Sox through his ultimate shutdown in August, Buxton played 85 games for the Twins. A good portion of those came as a designated hitter, attempting to keep his bat in the lineup while removing some pressure from his legs. Unfortunately, that also substantially saps the value such a great defender brings to the field, and Buxton had to feel less than ideal by providing only half of his value.
Getting into a total of 92 games last season, something Buxton noted as the most he’s played in since 2017, the Twins saw him produce 4.0 fWAR. On a per game basis, he has been right there with the likes of Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, or Paul Goldschmidt. The question for years has not been whether the talent was real, but how often it could matter.
Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide. A hit by pitch shouldn’t always break a hand, and a dive forward into grass shouldn’t always result in a concussion. There was a time that Buxton’s style of play put him in harm's way, but even there Minnesota has worked to keep their talent healthy. Looking at projections for the upcoming season, Fangraphs’ Steamer has Buxton launching 32 homers across 130 games. Last season, he put up 28 in just 92 games. ZiPS projections have the Twins centerfielder at 22 home runs, but that system has him registering just 90 games. The total could conceivably be somewhere in the middle, but if Buxton plays anywhere close to 130 games, he may double the 3.6 fWAR seen for him in that time by Steamer.
As a whole, baseball does a poor job marketing its stars. Trout is hidden in Los Angeles as is his teammate Shohei Ohtani. The East Coast teams often get their due, and Mookie Betts has recently been the darling of the Dodgers. Although Minnesota will never be on that level, for Buxton to be in any national conversations, he must remain on the field. Fans wanting to see what that looks like over a near-162 games could be treated to something special.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put a strong foot forward for Rocco Baldelli with this club. Carlos Correa is here to stay. Byron Buxton being healthy and amazing is something everyone is waiting to present itself.
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Heiny reacted to Alex Boxwell for an article, The Twins Can Be Patient in Waiting to Add Their Missing PieceWith players now in camp, it’s always fun to see what experts say about your favorite ball club. The Twins have improved the roster from last season. That’s an objective truth. However, they are projected to win between 80-87 ball games, depending on where you look. So what is the squeaky wheel that needs the grease?
Health was the clear hitch in our giddy-up last year. The depth of this team has been addressed to the point that we could see another trade of a big-league player before the start of the regular season. Our cup runneth over with solid big league position players, and some would argue with arms as well, a far cry from what we saw last season.
There has been plenty of clamoring for a left-handed bullpen arm. I fancied what I saw from Jovani Moran last year, and Caleb Thielbar was a big reason the wheels stayed on the bus as long as they did in the second half last season. I don’t see a huge need for a left-handed arm, but after last season’s horror show, finding another veteran southpaw to add to the mix would be welcomed. Especially with how we handle our starters.
The other move that everyone wants to see is that we finally add the ace. We declared our six-year window started when Carlos Correa signed his deal. The league knows that, and other general managers can follow what’s happening. The Twins are a prime candidate for overspending on an expiring contract of an ace.
The grease needed for this Twins team to compete for a championship is that ace. With that being said, sacrificing our depth and the health of this six-year window by trading away future key pieces would be a grave error. How it needs to unfold is we go into the season with roughly the roster we have now or a small move or two.
Waiting gives our roster a chance to play out and organically have guys win or lose jobs at crowded positions. It also gives time for the unfortunate reality of the injury situation to play out. The idea of jumping at the first top-tier starter being shopped is very seductive, but we need to be more calculated than that.
Sacrificing years four through six to go all in on year one of our window is not a calculated gamble; it’s just gambling.
We can see this rearing its ugly head with the Yankees and Frankie Montas—the arm we all coveted at this time last year. If the ‘where Frankie?’ meme (which was fantastic by the way) paid off; we’d be much worse off in the starting pitching department, with Montas likely being shelved for the year due to shoulder surgery.
The Front Office isn’t in the business of making moves to make moves, it has to be the move.
The Twins’ time is now, and another move is coming. They need to keep playing their hand as best they can and wait to make the move. It hedges their bet against the health situation and ‘The Gallo Gamble’ (patent pending).
Correa does not sign with the Twins if they don’t have a conversation about winning a championship. The cherry on top of this roster and the wild offseason would be the ace, but we will have to wait for mid-summer Christmas, the trade deadline.
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Heiny reacted to John Bonnes for an article, Report from the Fort: Excitement Leads the Way on Day 1Yesterday, we poetically delved into the romanticism and joy that accompanies the first few days of spring training. That is appropriate; optimism is the primary characteristic of the first phase of spring training. Talking with folks on Day 1, the participants make that clear.
The Players
It’s time to shake off the rust. That starts with pitchers because they take more time to build up their arm strength. Catchers join them because nobody wants to chase the ball to the backstop after every throw. Four days later, the rest of the position players join camp, because they need less than a week to find their groove.
Except this year, most guys are way early. It’s not totally clear why. Factors include the World Baseball Classic, optimism about the team, make-or-break years, the lack of COVID, or the fact that last year's lockdown-shortened camp.
Whatever it is, most can’t wait. This is funny because this first part of the year has a very first-week-back-to-school feel. Players are excited to see each other again. The new kids are making friends; finding a lunch table at which to sit.
There’s excitement in the air. Goals are fresh in mind. Some are eager to show they’re healthy. Some are eager to test whether or not their offseason workouts will pay dividends on the field. At the very least, those workouts are over. Baseball is the fun part of the season.
Coaches
The first week of school comparison also applies to coaches, trainers, management, etc. Yes, they are also excited to reconnect with each other and players. But the teachers are also sizing up their students' potential - both for greatness and for trouble. They also get a chance to see younger players whom they have only heard about in the minors. Glimpsing the future in those newcomers fires up everyone who loves the game.
By definition, the coaches love the game; they wouldn’t have chosen their career if they didn’t. So if you think the players are excited, you can only imagine the spring in the coaching staff’s step.
Reporters
For reporters, this is the best part of camp, too. Players are ready to talk, partly because they’re excited, but also because we haven’t worn them down with the same questions repeatedly. So this is an opportunity to interview players, transcribe the interviews, and then tuck them away to be referenced in a future story.
The Love of the Game exhilaration applies here, too. Being a beat writer for baseball is a grind, even compared to other sports beats that grind. It’s basically every day or night, for eight months, and the opportunities often require relocating. Again, nobody who isn’t obsessed with baseball subjects themselves to that, especially for what they are paid.
Plus - I won’t lie - the days are shorter in this phase of spring training. No afternoon games, and no trips across the state. It’s easily the best and most productive time to attend as a reporter.
Fans
It’s the best time to attend as a fan, too, at least if your goal is to have more interaction with the players than you’re likely to ever have again.
There is a path to the practice field where the players walk early each morning and back late each morning. It has barriers to separate them from fans, but the barriers are waist high, and, as mentioned, the players are generally excited. They will often stop for selfies, autographs, high 5s, etc., especially on the way back.
Plus, batting cages and the bullpens are both somewhat viewable as well. Want to see Jhoan Duran’s velocity up close? Or see Nick Gordon working with Torii Hunter in the batting cage? There are no guarantees but you’ll see something if you peer long enough through the fences and screens.
There is one day in particular when excitement is at its peak, and the Twins announced that today. The day after position players report, the Twins have an open house, where they open up Hammond Stadium (including concessions), have some special events (especially for kids), and provide even more chances to interact with players. This year, it’s Monday, the 20th.
But mostly any day before games start, you’ll have access you can’t quite believe - provided you show up in the morning. Timing is the biggest obstacle to all these experiences - they happen in the morning. This is by design: Florida can get pretty hot in the afternoons.
Players are often in the fields By 9 AM. (Some much earlier.) they’re often back by 11 or 12. The camp can be a ghost town in the afternoon. You’ve been warned.
Am I trying to convince you to come to spring training? Yes. Yes, I am. If you care enough to seek out Twins news on Day 1, you probably care enough to enjoy yourself. And if you are reading this because you’re excited about watching grown men play catch, then you’re going to fit right in, right here, right now.
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Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs for an article, Mike Radcliff: "The Greatest Teacher I've Ever Had in My Life"Terry Ryan hired Mike Radcliff from the Major League Scouting Bureau in 1987 as an area scout around his home in Kansas City. A year later, he became the team’s Midwest Supervisor. In 1994, he became the Scouting Director and remained in charge of the draft through the 2007 season. Since then, he has been involved in all Player Personnel decisions.
In short, over his 36 years with the Twins, Mike Radcliff has worked with a lot of people, a lot of area scouts, supervisors, cross-checkers and front office personnel. I asked Twins scouts what they have learned over the years from Mike Radcliff, and while they each have their own stories and memories, the themes are often the same.
To summarize: Mike Radcliff was one of the most respected people inside the Twins organization but also around all baseball circles.
John Manuel certainly has a unique perspective as it relates to Radcliff. Manuel was a long time writer and editor at Baseball America. He has been in the Twins pro scouting department for about the past five years. He recalls a survey that they sent out around 2006.
“I ranked the Twins prospects for the first time after the 2006 season, and that was just after Jim Callis conducted a survey of scouting directors, and 17 of the 28 voted for Mike as the best scouting director in the game.”
Manuel continued, “So I knew that when I got to do the Twins’ list, first I needed to call Mike and I knew that he would be helpful. But I didn’t know just how helpful he would be and how much I would learn from him. He talked about scouting terms not as jargon but as a way to understand baseball and players. A specific example was when he explained an “uphill” swing to me with specific examples to watch, such as Mark Teixeira, and also the downside (and upside) of such swings. It was eye-opening, and I was jealous of Jim Callis because Jim insisted on keeping Mike as a draft source, meaning that I had to keep him just as a Twins source. I would sneak draft talk into my Twins calls with him, sandwiched around Roy Williams talk after he left Cliffy’s Kansas Jayhawks for my North Carolina Tar Heels.”
Manuel had a ton of respect for Mike Radcliff and his opinion that he reached out to him before applying for the Twins scouting job. “When I stumbled into discussing a pro scouting job with the Twins, I literally gave Mike veto power over whether or not I would apply for the job. I called him the day after I had my first contact with Derek Falvey about the job and told him I would not actually apply unless he thought I would be a good fit for the organization, but he encouraged me to apply. I’m forever grateful that he thought I was worthy of being part of the organization. Now it's up to those of us who are still here to live up to the standard that he set, to get to the park early, to be last to leave, to know as much about the players involved as possible and to help the Twins acquire championship-caliber players.”
In the days following the announcement of Radcliff’s death, I reached out to scouts. One of the first I heard back from was Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting, Tim O’Neil. He joined the organization in 1994.
Of course, I heard from him late in the evening because he had what he referred to as a “Cliffy-type day.” He scouting a 9am game that morning, then went to an alumni game at a Division I college, and then a national workout featuring “all the best high school players in the West.”
Of Radcliff, he noted, “Mike was the smartest guy in the room, the most talented scout in the room, the hardest worker in the room, and the humblest guy in the room. He was incredible Seth. Died with zero enemies - zero.“
O’Neil continued, “No one could accurately describe Mike's work ethic and passion for the Twins. He was in a hotel 320+ nights a year, sometimes 2-3 months straight, 2-3-4 games a day, if possible. Every decision, every acquisition, every hire, promotion, release, divorce, birth, death, etc went through Mike. He genuinely cared about everyone and treated everyone with incredible respect. One interesting fact - he didn't like to shake hands, I never saw him hug anyone. But he offered more love and kindness than anyone I've ever met.”
Freddie Thon joined the organization 10 years ago as an area scout in Puerto Rico and South Florida. He is now an amateur cross-checker.
“I knew Cliffy for a long time, but not as long as many others. I was fortunate enough to work with him on the draft side as well as on the International side. I am pretty sure that everyone will repeat this sentiment, but it’s just undeniable that his work ethic and his commitment to the Twins was A+.It simply can’t be topped.” Emphatically, Thon added, “Aside from that, I have wanted to share with people how great of a guy he was, how genuine he was with all of us younger scouts, how well he treated every single person he came across, and the fact that he was truly one of the funniest people I knew. He will be missed, but I know this group will continue to honor him for many many years.”
Mike Ruth joined Radcliff and the Twins in 1989. After years as an area scout, he has been the Midwest Supervisor for many years. He described what Radcliff meant to so many in the organization.
“I’ve been thinking a lot about all I learned from Mike these past few days. He hired me as a young area scout 35 years ago, and I can’t begin to tell you what a privilege it has been to work with him and see up close his unfailing dedication to the Twins and more importantly the scouts, players, coaches, and staff who make up the Twins. He drafted and signed so many Twins icons (Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Perkins, etc) but his real legacy is the way he poured into so many people’s lives and the bonds he built to connect and elevate everyone in the organization and in the entire baseball world. To the scouts and the staff he was our Puckett; a guy who gave everyone around him such energy and optimism no matter what the circumstance and would carry the day in the toughest of times. If you remember as a fan what a blow it was the day Puck retired that’s how all of us are feeling today times a thousand.”
Ruth continued, “The two lessons that really stand out to me really don’t involve baseball, just how to author a life that honors the people around you and lets them feel appreciated and heard while making sure every success was shared and that his role in those successes was seen as secondary to everyone else. When you have a leader that sees life that way every day you work with them is a joy.
When I was a young scout I was initially impressed with all the “famous” people he knew. You couldn’t go anywhere with him that a GM, ML player or coach, national writer or broadcaster wouldn’t come up and start talking with him and he was always so generous with his willingness to introduce me and allow me into the conversation. It was very heady stuff for someone just breaking into the business and he never did it to impress, only to be inclusive. But as I got older what really impressed me and taught me the most was all the “non-famous” people he knew around the game. It would have been easy for him to isolate himself among the elite and live in that world exclusively like many do. Instead he built relationships with the first-year scouts, not only with the Twins but anyone who just wanted to talk about the game and learn. With the interns and people just breaking into the game. The college assistant coaches. The office staff at the minor league affiliates. The beat writers and bloggers. The people who cleaned the offices at Target Field. If you wanted to talk and learn, he always made time and job title or status in the game was never a barrier to building a new friendship. Mike never took from relationships, he added to everyone he touched and the stories of his generosity and kindness are legendary.
The second thing was his love of eating in groups. He had his favorite places and meals but for him eating was more about fellowship than food. At the table, everyone was equal and all ideas were worth consideration. Debate was encouraged without fear of embarrassment or retribution. All opinions had weight and worthiness and laughter was plentiful. I learned more about scouting and life during the hundreds of meals I had with him than anywhere else in my life. It was a Master course not only in every facet of baseball but in building a life well lived.”
Billy Milos joined the Twins organization in 1994 as an area scout. He has spent time on the amateur side of scouting, in pro scouting and has been quite involved with the Twins signing players from independent leagues. The two worked together and watched a lot of baseball together over the past several decades.
“He was my boss for decades. Even when he wasn’t my boss, he was still my boss. The number of lessons and “teachings” are too numerous to count. But the one that stands out is learning how to listen from him. It was something I needed as a young scout and something he excelled at with ease. He didn’t try to teach it, it just rubbed off on you by watching him.”
He referred to Radcliff as “the hardest working person I’ve ever met in my life! A Hall of Fame scout, Scouting Director, Baseball Executive, and human being. He can not be replaced.”
He continued, “Highly intelligent. A photographic memory. He could think and respond swiftly but yet in such a calm manner. Such great people skills, and a great sense of humor too. He was the type of leader that let you do your job. Never hovered over you. He loved having his work plate overflowing at all times. For him, that was comforting. He was so organized you would never know how much information passed through him each and every day until you listened to him. He could cover six completely different current events in one 10 minute conversation and be completely up to date on all six. It was dizzying! How did he keep up like this every single day of his life? An amazing individual that excelled in every single aspect of the human spirit.
Mike knew everything going on in baseball. Here is a man fully immersed in the draft. That was his love. But he knew all the best players for the next two drafts as well. But more amazing, he knew everything going on across the big leagues, minor leagues and the world of International prospects. It was just plain scary that he could sit there and have a discussion with you that spanned across all the different segments of baseball. Organizations have different departments for each aspect of baseball, and many people working within each department. Well, he had all that stuff in his head at any one time and could talk to you about any of it without looking at his phone or opening up his tablet. That's the truth. And if that wasn’t enough you could start talking about college basketball, or some random current event in America, or finance.You name it, and he was on top of it. He somehow crammed 36 hours into every day.”
Brad Steil joined the Twins organization as an intern and is about to begin his 23rd year in the organization. He has been involved in scouting and baseball operations. He was the Twins Director of Minor league League Operations for five years and is now in his sixth year as Director of Player Procurement.
He said, “When I started with the Twins, I worked closely with Mike on a daily basis. So I owe a lot to him for teaching me as much as he did early on. On a personal level, Mike was truly a phenomenal human being and a great friend. His kindness, empathy, and integrity really set him apart. In the baseball world, nobody was more respected for their evaluation skills and work ethic. It was a true privilege working with him for over 20 years, and I will always be grateful for his friendship.”
John Wilson joined the Twins in the early ‘90s. He can be seen in ballparks from North Carolina to Maine and everywhere in between.
“Mike was my scouting director for 14 years. That's just not the norm anymore, but then again, Mike wasn't about ‘norms.’ One of Mike's strengths was that he supported and trusted his scouts. In my opinion, this allowed us to thrive and gave us confidence to create our own style and give our own opinions. Mike didn't teach us what to think, he taught us how to think. To look beyond the game, the field or a particular play. As a scout, you did your homework because you knew that is what he wanted, and you didn’t want to let him down. He led by example with his work ethic, so you followed his lead. One thing about Mike that was both challenging and humorous was that it was impossible to beat him to the ballpark, no matter how hard you tried. When it came to evaluating players, Mike was like your junior high math tutor. He'd let you work through and solve a problem, even though he knew the answer all along.”
Wilson shared one story that illustrates his eye for talent. “One story that I'll always remember is at our organizational meetings in October 1996, Mike came up to me and told me ‘get to know Cuddyer, he’s gonna be our guy at pick 9’ (in the 1997 draft). This shows the depth and skill he had to be able to predict which guys would be available to us, even though the draft was eight months away.”
Wilson also shared a story to illustrate one of Radcliff’s best traits. “A great example of his humility and how he preferred to stay behind the scenes, was when Michael Cuddyer was put into the Twins Hall of Fame. The Twins brought me out to Minnesota. Mike Radcliff was there but wouldn't go onto the field for the ceremony. I think he just preferred to sit back in the shadows and let others be recognized, even though so much of what was accomplished was because of him. Mike could have beat his chest with all he accomplished. He could have postured for GM jobs, but I believe Mike loved the Twins. He loved the people he worked with and enjoyed helping us grow. He was famous for starting a discussion and letting us run with it.”
You may know Jack Powell from his cameo on Trouble with the Curve, but when he’s not acting, he is an area scout for the Twins in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and in the Florida Panhandle.
“I learned to be patient and let the process work. “Know before you go” equals ‘gather up as much info about the player you are about to see so you can have an idea about him, especially on one you have never seen. Love God, your family, your friends, and job. Treat each other with the same respect you expect them to return to you. Mike was someone I respected for 40 years working across the aisle from him. I was blessed to have worked side-by-side with him over the past 15+ years. He will be missed and thought of forever.”
Ken Compton is a professional scout with the Twins and has also learned a lot with and under Mike Radcliff. He said recently, “Not enough can be said about this amazing man, leader, and scout. I’ve learned so many things from Mike; preparation, work habits, humility, the list goes on and on. But the one that probably stands out the most is how to treat people. He treated everyone the same regardless of their position or status. He “genuinely” cared about people and made everyone feel special and validated. It’s hard to call it a leadership “style” because it wasn’t an act or something he learned in a book. It’s who he truly was.”
Radcliff was the Twins Scouting Director for 14 years. When he was promoted, Deron Johnson took over the position and held it until late in 2016. Sean Johnson was named the Director of Amateur Scouting in 2017, and was promoted to Vice President of Amateur Scouting in January. He joined the organization as an area scout in 2002. In 2007, he became the West Coast Supervisor and remained in that role until 2017. Royce Lewis became his first, first-round pick.
Sean Johnson has had a strong relationship with Mike Radcliff over the past 22 years. “Hard to boil down all of the things I learned from Mike, as he was the greatest teacher I’ve ever had in my life.”
He noted four things in particular that he learned during his time with Mike Radcliff. They are as follows:
1 - Lead with Humility
“Mike was a father figure to some, a mentor to many, and a friend to everyone who crossed his path. The way he handled people was remarkable. He had this unique way to make scouts feel comfortable and confident with their scouting opinions, even though you knew he probably knew more about the player being discussed than you did. You always walked away from Mike feeling like he valued your opinion and the work you had done coming up with that opinion. He treated everyone the same from first-week-on-the-job interns to hall of fame executives. He worked every single day for four decades with zero ego.”
2 - He was a Great Listener
“Mike spent far more time listening than he did talking. His ability to build consensus on a baseball decision was masterful. He was the best at getting people to pull in the same direction in an attempt to make the best decision possible. He loved creating these spaces where lengthy, in-depth baseball conversations happened. He wasn’t afraid to stir the pot or side with the unpopular opinion. During player conversations in the draft room he would always say, 'Well, I hate to play devil’s advocate here…' - which we all knew was a lie. Mike believed healthy debate and discourse would help guide our group to the best version of our opinion on a player.”
3 - He Defined Consistency
“When we start to mold and develop our new scouts, we preach a lot about consistency being the key to being a great area scout. Preparation, organization, communication, getting to the ballpark early, gathering more information about a player than the other 29 teams are, etc. Mike defined consistency. I never once saw him less than 100 percent prepared for any situation.”
4 - He Believed in a Player’s Makeup as a Separating Tool
“Mike believed that knowing as much as we could about a player’s makeup and ability to compete was the separator in the draft room. If we knew how a player was wired and how that player was as a person away from the ballpark, we had a much better chance of making the right selection when it was our turn to pick. When Mike would ask you about a specific player on your draft list, it was a rare occasion when he wouldn’t ask you about what you knew about that player’s makeup.”
A week ago, I shared my thoughts and experiences with Mike Radcliff, and we followed that up with comments from former Twins players such as Brian Dozier, Josh Rabe, and several others.
Today I hope you have enjoyed the stories shared by some of the scouts that he worked with. Even more, it is fun to read what these scouts learned from Mike Radcliff on the baseball field, as a scout, and just in life. I’m sure there’s something in there that we all can learn from.
John Wilson concluded by saying, “I think what I’ll miss most is the friendship. The ability to just call him up and hear him answer ‘Howdy,’ and we just talk about whatever; Players, children or just life, Mike had insight into all of it. I am extremely grateful for having Mike Radcliff in my life.”
Finally, Mike Ruth shared, “His passing leaves a giant void in the lives of so many who he touched over the years. He was the greatest scout most of us ever saw but he was even better as a friend and leader.”
Radcliff’s visitation and funeral will be on Wednesday, February 15th,at Lee’s Summit Christian Church in Lee’s Summit, Missouri. It is a suburb on the southeast side of Kansas City.
Mike was passionate about the game of baseball and the Minnesota Twins. If anyone is interested, the family suggests any donations be made to the Minnesota Twins Community Fund or the Kansas City MLB Urban Youth Academy. These memorials will be used to promote and support youth baseball and soft-ball programs in honor of Mike’s passion for the game.
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Heiny reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #4 Marco Raya, RHPAge: 20 (DOB: 8/7/02)
2022 Stats (Low-A): 65 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 76 K, 23 BB
ETA: 2025
2021 Ranking: Honorable Mention
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: 53
What’s To Like
The Twins have been high on Marco Raya since they drafted the teenager in the fourth round of the 2020 draft out of high school. Raya was one of the club’s biggest risers in 2022 after not being among Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects entering last season. It was easy to see why he was left off the list since he didn’t pitch at all in 2021 and was looking to make his professional debut in 2022. Since joining the organization, his projection has improved from a mid-rotation starter to a potential ace.
Minnesota had Raya spend the 2022 season in Fort Myers where he was three years younger than the average age of the competition. He only faced younger batters in 46 plate appearances, and he held older batters to a .571 OPS. Raya posted a 10.5 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 while batters hit less than .200 against him. His fastball has increased by multiple miles per hour since being drafted. He compliments his fastball with three offspeed offerings that MLB.com already grades as being 50s on the 20-80 scouting scale.
What’s Left to Work On
Shoulder soreness caused Raya to miss the 2021 campaign and his innings were limited in 2022. His frame is built similarly to former Twin Jose Berrios, so there can be questions about long-term durability with pitchers that size. Raya is listed at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds so there is room to add more muscle to his frame as he enters his 20s. Marcus Stroman is another similar sized pitcher that has found success at the big-league level, but Raya has a better fastball that is paired with very projectable secondary pitches. He is already considered extremely athletic so it will be interesting to see how his off-season regime added to his frame.
Raya has been limited to 19 appearances in his professional career, so the 2023 season is critical for building innings. He pitched fewer than five innings in all but four starts last season and he never threw more than 80 pitches. Minnesota will continue to monitor his innings during his young career, and it seems like 100 innings would be a good goal in 2023. His appearances will continue to come against younger hitters and he can continue to refine his secondary pitch offerings.
What’s Next
During the season’s early weeks, Raya should stay in Fort Myers where the weather will be warmer. His previous shoulder injury is no longer a concern, but there’s no reason to rush him into pitching in colder weather if the team can avoid it. As temperatures improve, Raya can move to Cedar Rapids to accumulate the bulk of his innings. He is already on the national prospect radar after a tremendous debut. By this time next season, he has a chance to be Minnesota’s top prospect and a global top-100 prospect.
What are your expectations for Raya in 2023? Can he be the team’s top prospect for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, The Twins Are Making High-Stakes Bets on Their 2023 BullpenThe impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario.
Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored.
Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite.
All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit.
That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great.
Is this group up to snuff?
The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender:
The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up.
He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss).
The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable.
The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will.
Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year:
The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track.
If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run.
The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever.
Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league.
The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong.
The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while.
And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed.
The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting.
The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through.
Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury.
Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise.
The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list.
Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart?
The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season.
Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them.
Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons.
We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact.
This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season.
Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen.
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Heiny reacted to Greggory Masterson for an article, Twins' Outfield is Custom-Made for their Flyball RotationWhen Michael A. Taylor signed with the Twins in January, the defensive outlook on the outfield entered the absurd territory. Taylor is a Gold Glove centerfielder joining an outfield that already features two Gold Glove outfielders in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo. The three occupy the top three spots in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since 2020 among outfielders.
Max Kepler, a great fielder in his own right (22nd in DRS), is slated to get most of the time in the right field. He joins Buxton and Taylor in the top 9 in Outs Above Average since 2020 (OAA; 8th, 9th, and 6th, respectively).
If defensive metrics aren't your thing—they're far from perfect—do this mental exercise. Close your eyes and think of a defensive player that you would rather have at each position. (No, you can't say "Juan Soto," despite his being a Gold Glove finalist in 2022; be honest). The list for each is probably relatively short. To be in that type of position at all three spots is special.
Because of the presence of four elite defenders, the Twins will be able to consistently mix and match to put a quality outfield behind their pitchers every day. All four players mentioned above can play serviceable-to-Gold-Glove centerfield. Gallo has won a Gold Glove in both corner positions. Taylor has left and right field experience as a role player in Washington.
You can then add to that group reserve outfielders Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach, who have been solid outfielders early in their careers, and Gilberto Celestino at Triple-A, who has the tools to be a good outfielder himself. All listed names except Larnach can provide centerfield defense for the team. If you need more convincing, check out Ted's case for the Minnesota outfield being the best in baseball in 2023 and Theo's discussion on the centerfield depth.
I'm not here to make those cases. Instead, I want to make the case that bringing Taylor in to complete an elite outfield defense is a perfect fit for the current roster.
Baseball teams, more than teams in almost all other sports, can be built by acquiring the best talent, regardless of fit, given the independence of baseball as a sport. As your uncle or drinking buddy has probably told you at least once, "There's only one ball in the NBA." Baseball doesn't fall victim to that issue. Joey Gallo, for example, was signed this offseason because the front office believed they could get value out of him; roster space be damned.
However, not all player acquisitions are based on taking the greatest talent. No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball. These additions can be need-based complementary, as they depend on the team's current state, altering it to be better.
Carlos Correa's signing may fall under the Sign as Much Talent as Possible scheme, but it was also need-based, as it filled a gaping hole at shortstop. The Christian Vazquez signing also falls into the need-based category, as the team lacked a player they felt comfortable relying on for 95 starts at catcher in 2023. Both players are talented but more valuable on a team like the Twins, which had a pressing need at each position.
Not all complementary acquisitions are based on need or upgrading at a position, though. Some are more context complementary. Take, for example, the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Big bats and speedy outfielders complement the playing environment in Denver, so finding a player who checks those boxes can be considered a complementary addition because their value to the team goes beyond their true talent.
The same idea can apply to personnel already on the team, such as the popular idea early this offseason of finding a left-handed catcher to pair with Ryan Jeffers. Andrelton Simmons is not very useful if there aren't a lot of balls hit in the infield. In that vein, compiling a squad of elite defensive outfielders compliments the current pitching staff quite well.
The Twins do not have a groundball pitching staff. Only two pitchers—Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez—qualify as groundball pitchers (greater than 44% groundball percentage, per FanGraphs). Among the 13 pitchers slated to make the Opening Day roster, only five had a fly ball percentage (FB%) lower than average (35%), with Pablo Lopez (33%) being the only starter below 35%.
Joe Ryan (54%), Bailey Ober (51%), and Tyler Mahle (48%) each had a sky-high (no pun intended) 2022 FB% in the rotation—higher than the Twin's all-time starting pitcher leader in the statistic, Kevin Slowey (min. 150 IP). Caleb Thielbar (47%) and everybody's favorite fly-ball-giver-upper Emilio Pagan (40%) paced the bullpen in allowing shots into the outfield.
The Twins ranked 14th in FB% in 2022 at 37.5%. Extrapolating last year's stats onto Steamer projections for innings thrown in 2023, the pitching staff would have a FB% of 39.3, a rate just below Michael Pineda's career rate with the Twins (39.5%). That 39.3% would rank 9th among teams in 2022. More projected innings from Ober and Mahle would explain the increase, among other minor personnel changes.
Will the Twins lead the league in 2023 FB%? Probably not, but they're likely to give up more than the average staff. That fact makes the Taylor trade (and, to a lesser extent, the Gallo signing) more exciting. Elite outfield defense is only beneficial if balls are hit to them at an above-average rate. If the team gives up fly balls at the same rate as Michael Pineda, the outfield will have plenty of balls to track down. Free agent bullpen arms like Matt Wisler (57%) or Matt Moore (39.4%) may even look more appetizing.
This newly-constructed outfield helps the Twins as much or more than it would help any team. Although many fans expected the complementary fourth outfielder piece to be a righty with some thump, the Twins zagged to ensure that their outfield defense would be good-to-elite, no matter which of their top 7 outfielders took the field each day. Their fly-ball-happy pitchers will love them for that.
Not even raindrops stand a chance.
As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty? Too bad the Twins have two of the usual suspects playing for them right now.
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Heiny reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Where is Joe Mauer’s Benefit of Perception?When looking at his case for the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, it is often contended that he will get in, but the sanctity of being a first ballot entrant seems unfathomable. To wrap one’s mind around that notion must start somewhere following his post catching days.
For Twins fans, there has always been a denigration of Joe Mauer’s resume largely due to two things. The first is a contract he signed coming off the most productive years we have ever seen from a catcher. Mauer got paid for what he had accomplished, and in a sport that stifles earnings for years before free agency, that shouldn’t be a concept difficult to grasp. Even with the $184 million extension, Mauer would’ve been substantially more handsomely paid elsewhere on the open market. His deal didn’t stop the Twins from adding, they chose not to on their own.
Beyond that, there is the discussion of his time as a first baseman. Nevermind that Mauer transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber talent (yes, we are still mad, Eric Hosmer), but he did so following multiple brain injuries. The Twins catcher didn’t step out from behind the plate because he wanted to, but instead because he had to. If Mauer had walked away following the concussion in 2013, he likely would’ve waltzed into the Hall of Fame similar to Kirby Puckett. So, when it comes to enshrinement in The Hall, why is Mauer’s case so hotly contested?
Take for example St. Louis Cardinals great Yadier Molina. He has roughly the same career fWAR as Mauer, but was a below average hitter (96 OPS+). His personal accolades are all defensive, and he earns extra credit for team World Series rings he won. There is no denying how great his defensive acumen was, but it truly was a career of a one-dimensional leader.
Someone like Buster Posey or Brian McCann had a career more similar to that of Mauer, and neither of them ever get mentioned in the same breath as Molina. Posey should be a certain Hall of Famer, and he’ll first become eligible in 2026 having retired in 2021. Posey won an MVP award and also captured a batting title. He wasn’t the defender that Molina was, and maybe not even that of Mauer, but his career 129 OPS+ shows just how much he contributed offensively. It would be much more controversial to suggest McCann is a Hall of Fame caliber talent, and yet he is right in the same realm as these other three. McCann does have a World Series and multiple Silver Slugger’s to his credit, but the only MVP award he ever won was for the All-Star game, and his offensive abilities were substantially less than both that of Mauer and Posey.
Some of the discussion surrounding Mauer’s candidacy goes back to the premise of “when” and not “if” he’ll get in. It should not be viewed as some amazing feat to be inducted on the first ballot. There are no additional awards for getting in, rather that you get a bronze plaque for doing so.
Nationally it seems as though Mauer is viewed more favorably. Hall of Fame guru and Fangraphs writer Jay Jaffe has long contended that Mauer be inducted, and he recently did a great back and forth with The Athletic’s Dan Hayes on that very topic. Maybe we’ll be surprised next winter and the votes will come in droves for Mauer. It would be disappointing to see it take as long as Molina’s debut to get him in, but then again, perception is often reality for most. -
Heiny reacted to Hans Birkeland for an article, Kirk Gibson Offers Hope for Alex KirilloffThe Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples:
Jason Kubel (Knee) Joe Mauer (Knee) Francisco Liriano (Elbow) Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome) Royce Lewis (Knee X2) Trevor Larnach (Core) And to a lesser extent:
Bailey Ober (Groin) Christian Guzmán (Shoulder) Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.”
He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position.
However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back.
He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years?
Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis.
After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage.
That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos.
The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson.
After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish!
“Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.”
Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history.
By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career,
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Heiny reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, The Twins Built Consistency this OffseasonIt would not at all be fair to suggest that patience was a key reason Carlos Correa will be a Minnesota Twin for the bulk of his prime. Certainly, that is how things worked out, but it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of deals in order to make it happen. It doesn’t matter to Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, however, as both are simply ecstatic it got done. With that deal, Minnesota was able to turn the tide.
Without Correa, and leaning on the likes of Kyle Farmer, it was worth wondering if impending free agents such as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, or Tyler Mahle made sense to keep around. The Twins have a solid amount of pitching prospect depth, and while none of them currently look the part of an ace, they all carry a fairly high floor.
The notion that Minnesota’s front office may have needed to pivot on its strategy of competitiveness changed in an instant. With Correa, the future becomes clear.
Coming off two straight losing seasons, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are angling to again be atop the AL Central. Chicago’s offseason was not a good one, and although Andrew Benintendi was a fine signing, Mike Clevinger is looking like a non-factor. The Guardians went out and got both Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, but it remains clear that the bulk of their production will need to come from internally-developed options.
For Minnesota, Correa anchors an infield that now sees both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee turn into supplemental talents. With both being Top 100 prospects, there is plenty of reason to believe they can contribute in a big way wherever they find opportunity. Byron Buxton is here for good, and although Joey Gallo is currently on just a one-year deal, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and even Austin Martin all represent long-term outfield options.
Jose Miranda looks the part of a fixture on the infield, and with a healthy wrist, Alex Kirilloff can be in a similar situation. Joe Ryan isn’t going anywhere in the rotation, and Pablo Lopez brings team control with him. For the first time in quite a while, the narrative isn’t about a window or a fleeting opportunity.
For a front office, this should always be the goal. While winning a World Series is obviously the ultimate pinnacle, finding a way to sustain relevance is key. Attendance dipped lower than it has in decades last season, but fans will come back to the ballpark for a winner. They may immediately be mad that Luis Arraez is gone, but when the team has a lead in August, none of that will matter anymore.
Before the Twins can look at putting another ring on their fingers, they’ll need to slay the giant that is the postseason losing streak. Putting themselves in a position to be a yearly participant was the goal, and it looks as though they have achieved that as a baseline. Consistency is now something that both Buxton and Correa can preach to youth, and it’s something that can be sold to free agents in the coming years.
The front office will continue needing to change out parts, but that is a yearly process in baseball. The core of this roster is here to stay, and much of it looks to have talent worthy of starting on a nightly basis. It’s not as though the Twins are all of a sudden some sort of juggernaut, but the bones of the 26-man roster look better than they have in a long time.
It was a weird way to get here, but Twins fans should be excited about this promise for years to come.
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Heiny reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #9 Louie Varland, RHPAge: 25 (DOB: 12/9/1997)
2022 Stats: (AA/AAA): 126.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 15
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
Varland's big-league debut on September 7th was emblematic of his journey as a prospect, which earned him back-to-back Twins Minor League Player of the Year awards: he met a new challenge with poise and confidence, and he handled it brilliantly.
You could hardly ask for more stressful introductory circumstances than stepping into Yankee Stadium to face MVP Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers on behalf of a team desperately clinging onto postseason hopes. Varland took it in stride. In his first match-up against Judge, he got a swinging strikeout with a beautifully executed righty-on-righty changeup.
Varland went to pitch into the sixth inning, finishing with a final line (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) that reflected his body of work in a five-start September stint with the Twins: 26 IP, 3.81 ERA, 21 K, 6 BB. Add in his outstanding work at Double-A and Triple-A prior to the promotion, and you've got a statement season that lends further legitimacy to the former 15th-round pick's pro credentials.
As much as he's improved his stuff from where it was when he was drafted, Varland still lacks the pure velocity or secondary quality of other pitchers in the Twins' current rotation mix, and others on this top prospects list. But there's something to be said for having the confidence and pace to execute as consistently as he does on the mound, including pressure-packed situations.
Another thing working for Varland, particularly in the context of Minnesota's current situation, is his dependability and durability. He's one of the few on this list (or currently in the majors) who's been able to reliably take the mound each fifth day without issue. Last year between the majors and minors he threw 150 innings, which is more than any Twins pitcher has totaled since 2019. This, as a 24-year-old with one pro season under his belt.
Clearly there's a lot to like from this hometown hurler who has proven so much. So why isn't he higher than ninth on our list? That comes down to Varland's final proving point ahead.
What's Left to Work On
Varland's overachieving accomplishments have earned him organizational awards and an early arrival in the majors. But they haven't shifted the broader view of his future upside, which helps explain why he still doesn't appear on any global top prospect lists and – despite moving up six spots this year – remains behind eight players (including several pitchers) in our rankings.
It comes down to the substance behind his performance. Varland's fastball plays up due to his extension and deceptive release point, and he's added a ton since his college days, but it still averages under 94 MPH, placing it on the lower side of today's MLB spectrum. None of his secondary pitches – the slider, cutter and change – have shown to be particularly outstanding offerings.
The righty manages to make the most of his arsenal thanks to a good approach and situational fortitude – for example, he held opponents to a .643 OPS with runners on last year compared to .726 with the bases empty – but decades of evaluation have taught us there's a limit to how far you can go with this kind of raw stuff.
Generally speaking, that's about a third or fourth starter. And that's what Varland has mostly looked like thus far, which is hardly an insult. There's plenty of value in a player with his consistency and reliability providing several cost-controlled seasons of roughly average performance from an MLB rotation.
What's Next
I don't think anyone in the organization would deny that Varland looks like a major-league pitcher. He could credibly be written into the back end of the Twins rotation on Opening Day, if needed, but the Twins have wisely stacked veteran depth to allow the 25-year-old righty to open up at Triple-A (where he's made four starts) so he can serve as a quality rotation reinforcement with a chance to lock down his spot as soon as the opportunity comes.
Reaching the next level of MLB starting pitcher status would require fundamentally improving some of his pitches to overpower batters with more than a polished approach, but we're talking about a guy whose legendary work ethic led to adding nearly 10 MPH in fastball velocity and vastly upgrading his secondary repertoire since being drafted as a little-known 15th-rounder out of Concordia University. If anyone can do it, it'd be Louie Varland.
Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
For more Twins Daily content on Louie Varland, click here.
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Coming Wednesday!
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Heiny reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SSAge: 23 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2022 Stats (AA): 406 PA, 241/.367/.316, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 35 SB
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 1
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like?
Austin Martin was brought into the Minnesota Twins organization, along with Simeon Woods Richardson, when the front office traded Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. It was Martin that was the headliner of that package, and that’s not a surprise given he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft.
Martin debuted in the Twins system last year playing just under 40 games at Double-A Wichita. He brought an .807 OPS from the Blue Jays stems, and finished the year with a .779 OPS for the Wind Surge. It was clear that Martin’s best offensive skills included a strong on-base ability, and utilizing significant speed on the basepaths.
Sent back to Double-A in 2022, Martin struggled. His 90 games resulted in just a .683 OPS and it was clear there was an emphasis being put on tapping into power. The Twins made adjustments to Martin’s swing in hopes of recording more doubles and home runs. That didn’t work, and the results spoke for themselves.
Martin then went to the Arizona Fall League and ended his season on a very high note. Putting together a .936 OPS across 21 games against the best prospects in baseball, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a big-league regular. Across the action in Arizona, he hit just one homer but racked up six doubles. The power probably isn’t ever going to come, but that could make his path to the big leagues more straightforward.
What's Left to Work On
It’s questionable at best as to whether Martin can remain at shortstop. He has played some second base and outfield however, and could morph into a guy that has utility all over the field. His speed plays well on the grass, and while his arm strength is nothing to write home about, it works at other positions. With Minnesota having seen so many debuts a season ago, it’s entirely possible that Martin makes it to the big leagues this year. Pushing him to Triple-A St. Paul makes a good deal of sense, and allowing him to be an on-base machine while simplifying the approach could right the course in a big way. He had almost neutral strikeout to walk numbers last season, and slotting in as a traditional leadoff hitter makes a lot of sense.
After his 2022 Martin fell off all national prospect lists, but the year ahead could be a significant one for him. He’ll be 24-years-old in March, and going back to what made him so desirable out of Vanderbilt may be enough to trend his stock back upwards. It’s difficult to see a perennial All-Star or high ceiling type of talent with the power potential so limited, but there can be a regular in this type of profile and that should make the Twins happy.
What's Next
Depending on how the Twins roster shakes out with injury and performance this season, Martin could find himself contributing at second base behind Jorge Polanco. Maybe he debuts in a Nick Gordon utility type of role, and he could assume whatever playing time Kyle Farmer currently has ticketed for himself. No matter what, there is a multitude of ways in which Martin could factor into Rocco Baldelli's plans.
The sooner Martin begins to hit for average at Triple-A, and uses his on-base skills to generate runs, he'll be seen as a potential option for promotion. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, but a little juggling could certainly take care of that. Assuming the organization has all but moved on from forcing him into power potential, Martin is very close to a finished product.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
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Heiny reacted to Matt Braun for an article, Forgotten Twins Greats: Dave GoltzOne of the greatest Minnesota-born pitchers, Dave Goltz could not have chosen a more inconspicuous start to his life. Born in Pelican Rapids on June 23rd, 1949, Goltz entered the world as the child of a produce marketer (his father) and a produce-business bookkeeper (his mother) (Temanson). He moved to Rothsay as a young boy.
A multi-sport athlete in high school, Goltz’s 6’4” frame stood out among the regulars. His dominant performance in football, basketball, track, and baseball—the only four sports offered by Rothsay High School—spread his name across the state as a high school legend, perhaps a new athlete capable of great things (Temanson). Goltz eventually narrowed his focus to baseball, fueled by the interest sparked in him by his former teacher, Ken Reitan, who started a little league team when Goltz was young (Sorum).
A fresh-faced 5th-round pick in the newly-minted June MLB draft (the first was in 1965; Goltz was drafted in 1967), Goltz headed to the GCL to start his professional career. His first two seasons were great successes. He led the GCL in ERA in 1967, then led the Northern League in strikeouts in 1968 (B/R bullpen).
Set to lead a league in another pitching stat in 1969, conflict in Vietnam intruded on Goltz’s budding pitching career. Despite new President Richard Nixon beginning the slow, messy process of withdrawal, Uncle Sam called Goltz to service. He worked as a helicopter mechanic in the Army Reserve and missed the 1969 baseball season (Temanson). One of 54 former ballplayers who served in the Vietnam War, Goltz never left the states during his active duty (Baseball Almanac) (twinstrivia).
Returning to baseball, Goltz spent two more seasons in the minors—one in Tacoma, Washington as roommates with Tom Kelly—before finally joining the Twins in 1972 (twinstrivia). In the middle of the season, Jim Kaat broke a bone in his wrist sliding into second base, and Minnesota “needed to fill the roster with pitchers,” necessitating a promotion for Goltz (Sorum).
Two years removed from an ALCS appearance, this was not a legendary period for Twins baseball. A few remnants of the 1960s glory days remained—names like Kaat, Rod Carew, Cesar Tovar, Tony Oliva, and Harmon Killebrew—but this was a roster in turmoil. Bert Blyleven, 21 and one year away from a legendary pitching season, led a group of players whose ceiling was an 85-win season in 1976.
Always one to pitch deep into ballgames, Goltz collected 83 complete games in his MLB career (image courtesy of twinstrivia.com)
But this was still 1972 and there was baseball to be played. Goltz debuted against the Yankees on July 18th, pitching 3 2/3 scoreless frames in relief of starter Ray Corbin in a 6-0 loss. Thurman Munson—who should be in the Hall of Fame—homered and doubled. Goltz’s first win came in his first start—a six-inning, two-earned-run performance in the opening game of a doubleheader against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Twins used Goltz mainly as a starter the rest of the season, allowing him to soak up innings as the team struggled to stay afloat.
As fun as 1972 was, 1973 proved disappointing, a lesson for Goltz to learn as he grew as a player. The 5.25 ERA, 106 1/3 inning slog cursed him to the minors to start 1974, but Minnesota quickly recalled the starter, and he tossed 174 1/3 frames with a finer 3.25 ERA in 1974.
Thus began Goltz’s odd streak of consistency. The good: he gobbled nearly 700 innings between 1974 and 1976 with ERAs of 3.25, 3.67, and 3.36, respectively. The bad: Goltz could not escape his record—a stat as crucial to a starter as any—which somehow tagged him as a .500 pitcher each year. He went 10-10, 14-14, and 14-14, respectively, over the same period. Minnesota’s offense remained well over the league average each season; Goltz simply felt the run-support curse that occasionally dogs even the best pitchers in baseball.
Goltz’s 1977 was legendary. In an unparalleled 39 start, 303-inning performance, Goltz accrued 19 complete games, won 20 games, and finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting. He only finished third in MLB in innings pitched—this was the 70s, after all—but he led the AL in both starts and wins, something that a Twin didn’t do again until Johan Santana in 2006. No Twin has touched 300 innings since. Parsing through the best Twins pitching seasons by fWAR, you’ll find a few Hall of Famers—Bert Blyleven and Jim Kaat—a few Cy Young Winners—Johan Santana, Jim Perry, Frank Viola, and Dean Chance—Camilo Pascual’s excellent 1962 and Phil Hughes’ historic 2014, and sitting as the 16th best individual pitching season in Twins history is Goltz’s 1977 effort. In other words, he was pretty good that year. He was so good that he nearly tossed a no-hitter on August 23rd against Boston, only allowing a bloop hit to Jim Rice that barely sailed over a leaping Roy Smalley.
Goltz’s 1978 season was even better by ERA. His 2.49 mark served as his career low, but a few ailments, including a burned hand suffered while grilling and a rib fracture earned during a scuffle against the Angels on April 22nd, cut his innings; he totaled “just” 220 1/3 of them that year (Temanson) (Gleeman, 175).
The Twins gave Goltz the opening day nod in 1979, marking the third season in which he pitched the first game. Baseball forces worked against him that year; after five straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00, Goltz’s earned runs shot up, and he ended the year with a 4.16 ERA, the worst since his sophomore slump in 1973. His league-leading 282 hits allowed appear to be the culprit.
But times were changing. The landmark 1972 Supreme Court decision Flood v. Kuhn effectively killed the reserve clause, allowing players to sign with whatever team they chose. Catfish Hunter's five-year, $3.35 contract before the 1975 season set the standard. Free agency started to develop even more following the 1976 Collective Bargaining Agreement. With years under his belt, Goltz earned the chance to capitalize on his worth.
After his disappointing 1979 season, Goltz filed for free agency. The Twins in this era were stingy, to be kind. Owner Calvin Griffith ran potential stars Lyman Bostick and Larry Hisle out of town with his tight pockets and traded 1977 AL MVP Rod Carew for similar reasons. Although, Griffith’s infamous racist comments in Waseca in 1978 also fueled that move. Goltz claims Howard Fox, Minnesota’s Vice President, was the man he had financial issues with, but he nonetheless chose to dabble in the open waters (Temanson).
Perhaps not the proudest accomplishment, Goltz owns the record for most runs allowed in a saved game after allowing eight runs against the Cleveland Guardians on June 6, 1973.
Four teams, led by the trio of Southern California franchises and Milwaukee, vied for Goltz. The starter preferred the Brewers with their energetic hitters and gritty style of play, but kept his heart open to the Dodgers, Angels, and Padres (twinstrivia). When the Dodgers offered an eye-popping six-year $3 million contract, Goltz's agent sealed the deal, and the Minnesota boy officially headed west to join a growing powerhouse.
The 1980s Dodgers, under manager Tommy Lasorda, were a legendary bunch. Fresh off NL pennant victories in 1977 and 1978, the team enjoyed a host of elite players: hitters like Ron Cey, Pedro Guerrero, Steve Garvey, and Dusty Baker supplied the pop while veteran Don Sutton handed the torch off to youngsters Bob Welch, Fernando Valenzuela, and Orel Hershiser. L.A. won two titles in the 1980s while finishing above .500 in six seasons.
Goltz’s time as a Dodger was not happy. He started his career in L.A. with back-to-back shutouts but fell out of the rotation in 1981, and the team cut him just a few months into the 1982 season. Still, after tossing 3 1/3 innings in the 1981 World Series, Goltz aided in a championship victory, earning a ring in the process.
Goltz remained in California, joining the Angels in 1982. Back under the watch of manager Gene Mauch, Goltz joined an eventual playoff team led by Carew, Reggie Jackson, the eternally-underrated Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Don Baylor. Luis Tiant and Tommy John served as the (very) veteran depth arms. Goltz earned one more chance at postseason success, a relief appearance in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, Harvey’s Wall-Bangers didn’t spare Goltz as, after jumping on Tommy John, Milwaukee pegged Goltz for three runs on their way to a World Series appearance.
Goltz tossed a few innings for the Angels in 1983, but his playing career ended quickly and quietly.
Never a strikeout artist—he “relied more on ground balls” than strikeouts—Goltz could be easy to miss and simple to paint broadly (Gleeman, 175). Sometimes mentioned as one of the original free agent “busts,” Goltz was not merely a decent pitcher on an elite Dodger team, but instead, a starter who endured massive workloads in his prime, only finally wobbling once he reached the wrong side of 30. Of all the pitchers Gene Mauch oversaw—an impressive list that includes Nolan Ryan, Frank Tanana, and Jim Bunning, among others—he claims Goltz to be the best he ever managed (Temanson).
A master of the sinker—one that would “rise” and another that would “sink” into a right-hander—Goltz earned his outs with movement (Sorum). When paired with a knuckle curve that he could throw three different ways, Goltz could gobble innings with the best of them (twinstrivia). His 1,248 innings thrown between 1975 and 1979 are the 11th-highest of all pitchers. Stars like Nolan Ryan, Luis Tiant, Don Sutton, and Jerry Koosman (another Minnesota-born Vietnam veteran) rank below Goltz’s total in that streak.
Minnesota’s leaderboards bear Goltz’s greatness. He accrued the fifth-most fWAR of all Twins starters, the sixth-most innings, and has the 11th-lowest ERA of all qualified starters. His numbers compare favorably to Frank Viola—a Twin legend cherished and remembered by fans into the present.
Goltz left baseball to join Midwest Insurance in Fergus Falls, Minnesota, where, as of 2010, he still entered the office consistently (Sorum). Occasionally making his way to various Twins events, Goltz prefers to avoid the city and its traffic, instead choosing to live in sparse parts of the state.
Aaron Gleeman placed Goltz 30 in his Big 50 book, an appreciation of the men and moments that define the Minnesota Twins.
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Twinsdaily's formatting doesn't allow for footnotes, my preferred style of citation, so I used the Author/Date system in the text with my bibliography here. Sources are listed alphabetically, not necessarily by use.
Temanson, Lee, "https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Dave-Goltz/," SABR, 2009.
Sorum, Scott, "Dave Goltz: Former Minnesota Twins pitcher calls this area ‘Home’," https://www.wahpetondailynews.com/, 2010.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dave_Goltz
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=goltzda01
twinstrivia.com, "Dave Goltz interview," 2011.
Gleeman, Aaron, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Minnesota Twins," Triumph Books, 2018
https://www.fangraphs.com/