Dave The Dastardly

How did last season go?
Terrible. After a surprisingly competent showing in 2021, the Motor City Kitties fell back into their typical post-2016 swampy waters, finding themselves stuck in a 66-win quagmire.
It was a puzzling everything-that-could-go-wrong-did type of season. Their big free agent splashes in Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez capitulated; Rodríguez battled personal issues while Báez continued his lifelong struggle with sliders off the plate. A good team could overcome those things, but when mixed with overbearing injuries to young stars and poor play by their top prospects, Detroit’s 11-win slide isn’t much of an Agatha Christie mystery. 
Cruelly, almost any bright spot on the team comes with attached asterisks and lawyers' notes. Tarik Skubal was excellent to start the season, appearing on his way to finally grow into Young Ace territory before Flexor Tendon surgery curtly cut his year short; he will likely start 2023 recovering from surgery. Joe Jiménez figured out that you need to strike people out, not walk them, and limit homers… just to be traded to Atlanta following the season. So it goes. Eric Haase’s continued breakout might be the most notable positive for the team; he’s 30 with a poor glove.
What did they do this off-season?
The Tigers did what all underperforming teams do: tread water on the roster while cleaning up the muck internally. Was Al Aliva the problem? Who knows, but he’s gone, now replaced by former Giants brain man Scott Harris. Was the training staff poor? Maybe, but a clean sweep of the system will now ensure that, if injuries strike again, Detroit will at least have new people they can blame. 
That cleansing may be wise; the Tigers once claimed a hoard of talented pitching prospects—Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo, among others—but one after the other has either underperformed, fell victim of an injury, or faced some combo of the two. Only the aforementioned Skubal has established himself in the majors. That’s not a pattern Detroit can afford to repeat. 
Outside of the Jiménez deal, the Tigers’ most impactful move was sending Gregory Soto and his lethal stuff/minimal control combo to Philadelphia for a haul of fascinating players. Will Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, or Donny Sands be good? Who knows, but parting with a reliever to find the answer to that question is a worthwhile bet. They also brought back the prodigal son, Matthew Boyd, and paid $8.5 million to Michael Lorenzen to pitch a bunch of forgettable innings. 
What should we expect in 2023?
Perhaps it’s the madness of modern life sitting in, but the Tigers might be a compelling bounce-back team. It’s unlikely that the bats will be as historically dreadful as they were at parts in 2022, and their wall-moving project—a tasteful venture, unlike Baltimore's—should improve offense, at least a little bit. If Austin Meadows stays healthy and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene figure out major-league pitching, the lineup could be at least passable. 
The rotation is shakier. Mize is still on the mend after receiving Tommy John surgery, although his contributions were questionable to begin with, and Skubal just began throwing from flat ground. That leaves a strange hodge-podge of uninspiring veterans in Boyd and Lorenzon, rebound candidates in Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull, and Manning’s impossibly low strikeout rate. It’s bizarre; this team is bizarre. They need a solid showing from their Faedos and Joey Wentzs to escape the AL Central doldrums. 
There’s little good news on the prospect front. Keith Law wrote that “[f]rom the 2016 through 2021 drafts, their top three picks by WAR to date are Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize … and John Schreiber, signed for $6,000 in the 15th round. Their international free-agent classes have been totally unproductive. And we haven’t seen many players get better once in the system over the last decade, whether they come in as reasonably polished players or not.” Other than that, things are fine. Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung—brothers in alliteration—pepper the back-end of top 100 prospects lists (so does the other Wilmer Flores, this one a pitcher), but the depth is malnourished, and Detroit lacks the history of identifying and fixing young talent. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are interesting, though. 
Their future appears more unpredictable than Kansas City’s, but their upside could be legit. A.J. Hinch is a more-than-competent manager, and some elusive injury luck could spit out a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but one who could flirt with .500 enough to make the effort seem worthwhile. Hopefully, Miguel Cabrera’s final season isn’t wasted on mediocrity. 

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.
This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.
Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.
For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 
The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:
2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3
Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 
The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.
There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 
On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 
Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 
The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 
The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 
Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
I am Carlos’s bamboo ankle.
Yes, the Twins lost the second-most days to injury in the 2022 season, but that isn’t the whole truth. As a skeptic or a naysayer may remind you, players like Jhon Romero and Randy Dobnak led the team in days lost. However, the more significant issue was their lack of health down the stretch.
Somehow, the Twins still had a share of first place on September 4. No matter how they got there, they could win the AL Central—if they could keep pace with Cleveland. There were eight crucial games down the stretch against Cleveland, and the Twins won only one.
I am Alex’s shortened ulna.
Some days are the sort of day where the sun only comes up to humiliate you. In those eight games against Cleveland, the depleted Twins were without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (he did start two games but was on a broken foot), Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Miguel Sano.
On aggregate, the lineup looked like this, more or less, presented with games started during that stretch, 2022 fWAR per 550 plate appearances, and 2022 OPS, for those of you who are statistically inclined:
2B) Luis Arraez (7, 2.9 fWAR, .795 OPS)
SS) Carlos Correa (8, 4.1, .834)
1B) Jose Miranda (8, 1.3, .751)
LF) Nick Gordon (7, 1.9, .743)
3B) Gio Urshela (8, 2.4, .767)
DH) Gary Sanchez (5, 1.5, .659)
RF) Jake Cave (7, 1.6, .644)
CF) Gilberto Celestino (5, 0.0, .615)
C) Sandy Leon (4, -2.5, .502)
Starter fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .701
Bench:
Matt Wallner (4, 0.8, .709)
Kyle Garlick (2, 0.3, .717)
Mark Contreras (2, -0.9, .441)
Jermaine Palacios (2, -6.4, .413)
Total fWAR: 6.9; OPS: .661
As mentioned, Kepler also started two games, and even Billy Hamilton got a start during that stretch. Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken, though. That group is not a winning team, nor is it even a treading-water team.
It is unreasonable to believe any team will play at a 90-win pace with six Opening Day starters and two top reserves on the IL. But fans can expect at least a fight. Club decision-makers should, too.
I am Trevor’s herniated core.
Since then, the front office has traded for Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor, who started at shortstop and centerfield, respectively, for poor teams last year. They signed 2020 Silver Slugger second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez join the squad with a mostly healthy injury history.
These additions should help—in theory. If the exact string of injuries were to occur again, the lineup could look something like this in 2023 (presented with 2023 fWAR per 550 plate appearances and OPS, projected by FanGraphs ATC):
1B) Miranda (2.5 fWAR, .743 OPS)
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Correa (4.4, .811)
LF) Gordon (1.8, .719)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Gallo (2.0, .732)
C) Vazquez (2.6, .671)
DH Wallner (-1.0, .669) 
Starter projected fWAR: 17.0; OPS: .710    
Bench:
C) Tony Wolters* (0.0, .538)
UT) Willi Castro* (2.6, .648)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
IF) Edouard Julien* (2.3, .698)**
Total projected fWAR: 21.9; OPS: .686
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metrics, so ZiPS was used here
Other players who could be plugged in here include Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Elliot Soto, Kyle Garlick, Tyler White, and the rest of the veteran catchers. Some noticeable beneficial changes emerge here.
Wallner, Gallo, and Vazquez effectively replace Cave, Sanchez, and Leon as bats in the lineup. Taylor moves Celestino to a reserve role. The losses of Arraez and Urshela hurt, but Solano and Wallner aren’t awful replacements.
Another factor is the hypothetical development of upper-level-minors prospects. Wallner, for example, is a carryover from the rock-bottom roster, but in theory, he should be better than he was last year. Buzz around Julien is heating up, and he may be an impact bat in 2023.
That isn’t a given, though. Other guys like Lee and Martin may even play their way into a role that would move Solano or Farmer back to the bench, but it’s not prudent to count eggs before they hatch.
I am Jorge’s trick ankle.
If we were to exclude anyone with injury question marks, Correa would be out of the picture, replaced by someone like Martin. There would be some scrambling of the lineups, and it would hurt. If Lee is Major League ready, it might not hurt as much, though without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing, like the first monkey shot into space.
I am Royce’s twice-exploded knee.
What if every single starter on the 2023 roster is injured? How would the roster look? We can add Gordon, Gallo, Miranda, and Vazquez to the list. On the bright side, Larnach, Lewis, and Jeffers are back in the mix.
1B) Julien* (2.3 fWAR, .698 OPS)**
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Lewis (1.7, .732)
LF) Larnach (0.2, .681)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Wallner (-1.0, .669)
C) Jeffers (2.4, .684)
DH) Castro* (2.6, .648)
Starter projected fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .684
Bench:
C) Wolters* (0.0, .538)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
OF) Garlick (0.6, .675)
UT) Martin (0.7, .622)
Total projected fWAR: 14.3; OPS: .664
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metric, so ZiPS was used here
I’m unaware of a team that can do much more than tread water without any of their starters, but this roster is one way it could shake out. Some may say that it looks better than last year’s September roster. Some may think comparing two bad teams isn’t worth considering. Others may believe that losing all hope is freedom.
I am Ryan’s contused thumb.
The goal was clear this offseason: build depth. Even if the Mona Lisa is falling apart, they must do everything possible to protect against a complete collapse, as we saw in 2022. Whoever takes the field needs to put up the fight club officials have come to expect from their guys.
It remains to be seen whether or not they built up enough depth to withstand the throes of a season. Perhaps this is what happens when you build a roster on health question marks. Perhaps no amount of depth can protect a team against losing half of their key pieces.
I’m not here to determine whether or not they did what they needed to; I just wanted to share this back-of-the-napkin mental exercise. And melodramatic prose.
I am Byron’s … everywhere.
Only after disaster can we be resurrected. It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything. Nothing is static; everything is evolving; everything is falling apart.
Do you think that Falvey, Levine, and co did enough?
 

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

Entering last season, Jhoan Duran had been a starting pitcher for his entire career. A lengthy injury history made the Twins reconsider his long-term role with the club. He was shifted to the bullpen and became one of the team's most valuable assets. Only some players can be as successful in transitioning to the bullpen, but there are multiple players the Twins may consider shifting to a bullpen role during the upcoming season.
Josh Winder joined the Twins organization as a seventh-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Virginia Military Institute. He made nine starts (38 1/3 innings) in rookie ball after signing and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. During 2019, he spent the year at Low-A and lowered his ERA to 2.65 with a 118-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 2/3 innings. Winder led the Midwest League in ERA and WHIP during the 2019 season. He was putting himself on the prospect map, but then the pandemic took away a season. 
Winder added strength during the shutdown and saw his velocity jump coming into 2021. The Twins had Winder skip High-A coming out of the pandemic, which meant he split time between Double-A and Triple-A. Due to injury, his season started in May, but he dominated for Wichita. In 10 games, he had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 10.7 K/9. The Twins promoted him to Triple-A, but shoulder fatigue ended his season after four starts at that level. It was a disappointing end to what could have been a breakout season. 
Season in Review 2022
Last spring, Winder was in the running to win a spot in the starting rotation before the team signed Chris Archer at the end of March. He still made the Opening Day roster to help add depth out of the bullpen. His first five appearances were strong as he limited the opposition to four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. However, he struggled in his subsequent two appearances and ended up on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement.
He worked his way back to the big-league level, but his shoulder continued to bother him throughout the season. He went on the Triple-A Injury List in July with right shoulder impingement syndrome and didn't throw a bullpen until the middle of August. He returned to the big leagues in September, but the Twins had already fallen out of the division race. Overall, he made 15 appearances with the Twins, and four were out of the bullpen. He posted a 4.70 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 47-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Projections for 2023
Winder is coming off a somewhat eventful off-season. His name popped up in trade rumors because he was the initial trade piece requested by the Royals for Michael A. Taylor. Minnesota balked at that request, and Kansas City lowered its asking price to two relievers, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. Both pitchers are considered relievers, and this might point to the Twins believing Winder can still be an asset as a starting pitcher.
Winder also dealt with shoulder issues as he started ramping up for the season, which means he's a little behind entering camp. Early in his career, Winder's fastball sat in the low 90s, but he averaged 94 mph last season and can hit in the upper-90s. His slider velocity sits in the mid-80s, and he throws this pitch a third of the time. His changeup and curve have helped him to keep big-league batters off-balanced, and his increase in velocity makes those pitches more of a weapon. He pounds the strike zone and limits walks, which can be ideal for a starting pitcher. 
Summary
For 2023, the Twins need to find a way to keep Winder healthy no matter what role he fulfills for the organization.
The Twins have worked to alter his mechanics, but his shoulder has been problematic for multiple seasons. During instructional league play in 2020, his velocity was even higher than what he has showcased in big-league action. These totals were in smaller sample sizes, which might indicate the bullpen being his long-term role. His college experience means he will be 26 years old for the entire 2023 season. Winder will start the year on track to be a starter, but his shoulder concerns mean the team should shift him to the bullpen in 2023. 
Can Winder's shoulder hold up to the rigors of being a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Ronny Henriquez

How did last season go?
Poorly. Again. The Royals extended their post-World Series rebuild another season, failing to crack .500 for the sixth straight season. 
They couldn’t pitch, but they made up for it by not hitting. Despite a recent influx of minor-league talent —including a gift from the prospect gods in Bobby Witt Jr.— the Royals allowed 810 runs, scored just 640 of them and dragged down a dismal AL Central with a 65-97 record. They will pick eighth in the 2023 MLB Draft.
There were bright spots, a few shiny diamonds littered in their rough. Brady Singer made The Jump, improving his control enough to net him a more-than-respectable 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. He will continue to spot sinkers on the outside corner for years to come. The aforementioned Witt Jr. treaded water at the major-league level, showcasing elite bat speed and a potentially dynamic hitting package, but couldn’t find his aggressive sweet spot, and his OBP sat below .300 on the year. For the sake of decency, his defense at shortstop should remain ignored. But then, Vinnie Pasquantino, the first baseman netted fewer than 300 plate appearances, but showcased a frightening Freddie Freeman-esque combo of contact and power with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate; he’s their next Alex Gordon.
What did they do this offseason?
Not much. They unceremoniously dumped Adalberto Mondesí onto the Red Sox after years of waiting for his injury bug to find a new host (it never did), signed a few arms to eat innings—Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Lyles—because, well, someone has to, brought on Aroldis Chapman because their version of baseball reference stopped updating at 2019, and re-signed Zack Greinke after his 2022 nostalgia trip resulted in a shockingly usable pitching campaign. They also dealt away Michael A. Taylor for bullpen arms.
If that sounds like shuffling an old, mildew-covered deck of cards, you’re right. While they acquired capable major-league players—and a few once dominant ones—their on-field moves were made in order to fill roster spots, not to add impact pieces.
The difference-maker for the Royals comes via their brain trust. Longtime decision-maker Dayton Moore earned the boot before the season ended, and J.J. Picollo took over to help steer Kansas City into modernity. Manager Mike Matheny transformed into Matt Quatraro, the recent bench coach for the Tampa Bay Rays. Trekking from Cleveland, Brian Sweeney replaced Cal Eldred as pitching coach. 
The moves, while small, point towards an acknowledgment of baseball’s changing times. With their laughably archaic minor-league pitching laws likely gone, the Royals appear set to embrace the data-driven movement. 
Perhaps no player represents Kansas City's issue with developing pitchers than Asa Lacy. The former 2020 4th overall pick dominated as a sophomore with Texas A&M, earning 130 strikeouts with a miniscule 2.13 ERA. His pro time has been a disaster. The few healthy innings Lacy owns are tainted with horrifying walk rates and uncompetitive starts; his prospect status is nowhere near his draft pedigree.
What should we expect in 2023?
The Al Central-hater that resides deep within this author’s core says more of the same, but that could be a touch mean. A playoff appearance would likely only occur if the rest of the division implodes, revealing each team to be groups of children wearing trench coats, but the Royals probably aren’t looking at wins to judge success.
With Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Jon Heasley, Kansas City has assembled a group of talented arms, pitchers who would otherwise likely thrive in more ideal pitching environments but have floundered in the Royals’ weird philosophical model. That should change. Picollo and Sweeney will make it change. It’s unclear specifically what the new Royals will preach, but it seems impossible for them to take a step backward.
The position players tell a different story. Pasquantino is going to rake (seriously, buy as much stock in him as possible), but Kansas City has accrued an odd combination of talented hitters with poor defensive specs. Witt Jr. will probably hit well, but his defensive chops at shortstop in 2022 were atrocious; M.J. Melendez boasts a promising OBP/power skillset, but he’s a butcher at catcher and appears set to follow the Billy Butler defensive route. After them, it’s a weird assortment of older not-really-prospects and whatever Drew Waters has left in his hype tank. Although, even Waters will be out for six weeks with an oblique issue. 
What you see is mostly what you get; outfielder Gavin Cross likely won’t impact the 2022 team, leaving the light-hitting Maikel Garcia and the lighter-hitting Nick Loftin as the prospects most likely to alter Kansas City’s fortunes. Both players are infielders. Outfielder Tyler Gentry could mash enough to break the team at some point (he slugged .550 at Double-A last season). Their pitching is more dry, as Angel Zerpa and Alec Marsh represent the talented arms closest to the majors, but Kansas City will likely bank on their technically-not-prospect pool of pitchers anyways. 
The Royals probably won’t challenge much in the AL Central, but they’ve finally righted the organization, bringing in quality candidates from successful franchises who should help sift through the development quagmire that has soiled the team for years. It won’t work immediately; the 2023 Royals will exist in the nebula, only becoming apparent once the dust settles on their infrastructure altering. 
But for real, Vinnie Pasquantino is going to be awesome.

Gone are the days of Terry Mulholland. At least in Minnesota, you will rarely see a strange man sitting at the end of the bullpen bench who will, five times a month, run in to pitch four or five innings of low-leverage relief, only to retreat into the shadows until the next week, when his arm is needed again.
The Twins tried to employ such a pitcher in 2021 when Randy Dobnak broke camp with the club as a long reliever. However, the team struggled to find him regular work, which had two adverse effects—it used a bullpen spot, and Dobnak (who was very much in their plans fresh off his five-year extension) could not continue to develop with the erratic schedule.
That is not to say that the team doesn’t send guys out to eat innings occasionally; it simply works differently in the modern game. Instead of retreating to the end of the bench, they typically ride the green line back to St. Paul in favor of a fresh arm.
The bullpen seems set in most people’s minds, with some hierarchy featuring Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill—each of whom has seen a good deal of Major League work. However, all are considered short relievers to one degree or another.
This concentration of short relievers became a point of consternation in 2022, as the bullpen was stretched to cover four to six innings most nights. The team tried not to throw players on back-to-back games either, and you don’t need to be a math major to understand why that’s untenable with an eight-man bullpen.
Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to face that again this year, and a long reliever is a big part of that. “I personally think our best bullpen has, and always has, one option that can give you 50-75 pitches out of the bullpen. I’d like to carry someone like that at all times.”, Rocco said Friday to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes and the other Twins beat writers.  “Is that going to be the case? No, we probably won’t be able to do that in all 162. But I think having someone like in the vast majority of our games will be very helpful. I also think we have those guys.”
Given that, we may see the likes of Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, or Brent Headrick called up to do something similar. Sands, Winder, Henriquez, and Headrick may be prime candidates, as they seem most likely to be relievers eventually (though Henriquez is also dealing with a sore elbow.). Calling a player up like this is more the exception than the rule when it comes to divvying up innings, though.
Although the Twins could roster someone like Dobnak or Sands to be a-low leverage option, it’s debatable whether that will happen practically. I’m interested in speculating on how the Twins might get bulk work from this group—even if that doesn’t mean employing a true fulltime long reliever. I dug through 2022 usage patterns for Twins relievers with more than 15 innings and five relief appearances.Four types of usage profiles emerged in doing this. 
Short Relief
The first is true short relief. Players like Joe Smith, Thielbar, López, and Michael Fulmer rarely threw more than an inning, and none had an appearance of two or more innings. They were also the most likely to be used on back-to-back days, with each over 20% of their appearances on zero days’ rest.
Long Relief
On the other side of the spectrum were pitchers predominantly used in long relief. There were two of those guys—Sands and Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez threw five relief outings, pitching 5, 3.1, 3, 3, and 1.2 innings. Had he been on the roster all season, he would have been a true long reliever, but he only filled this role in September after rosters were expanded. However, the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, so he is another option to fill this role at least partially.
Multi-Inning Relief
Then we get to the guys who were used somewhere in the middle, which is probably the modern version of a long reliever. Some of these guys were green line regulars, like Moran and Jharel Cotton. They threw more than one inning between 25% and 50% of the time, often when ahead by more than four runs or trailing.
Although Moran and Cotton were sent down after multi-inning appearances several times, Trevor Megill remained on the roster after his initial call-up in 2022, despite having options remaining and throwing more than an inning 30% of the time. Megill’s usage was a bit all over the place in terms of leverage, and he may present the biggest question mark regarding his role for the 2023 bullpen, assuming he breaks camp with the team.
Role Changers
Finally, we have a group of pitchers that fluctuated between groups. The most pleasant surprises last year were Durán and Jax. Both players began the season as freshly-converted starters pitching multiple innings in the middle innings, but they transformed into predominantly one-inning guys.
Both threw more than an inning about a quarter of the time, but most of those appearances came at the beginning of the year. For example, Jax recorded more than three outs just thrice in the last 100 games of the season.
In the opposite direction, Emilio Pagán and Tyler Duffey began the season as single-inning options. They were converted into Cotton-esque innings-eaters by the end of the season due to performance reasons. Pagán, in particular, was an interesting case, as he took on more innings but was also relied on to throw in back-to-back games quite often. If there is one positive trait most can agree on, it’s that Pagán possesses a rubber arm.
So What Will We See?
At the beginning of the season, at least, the betting money would have to be on Megill, Moran, and Pagán being run out for multi-inning appearances. Suppose Pagán continues his improvements from late in the year (ironically in his new, low-leverage role). In that case, he may be in line for a hybrid role, lower on the bullpen hierarchy, but still trusted in some close games, depending on the rest status of other arms.
Many fans are clamoring for Moran to be used as a second lefty rather than a long reliever, and if he develops control, he may be more suited for that role. Similarly, if Megill stops leaving balls middle-middle, he can ride his 100 MPH fastball a long way.
Bulk innings may be given to whichever arm is freshest from that group, and if one emerges as a primary or secondary setup man, they may actually lead the bullpen in innings, taking the Griffin Jax path.
There may be a rotating cast of waiver claims, semi-prospects, and minor league veterans at the end of the pen, soaking up innings before returning to St. Paul, or being jettisoned into the sun, never to be seen or heard from again. However, between Pagán, Moran, and Megill, the Twins may have a group who can fill multiple innings at a time while also seeing a moderate amount of medium-to-high-leverage innings.
 
 

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. 
There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring.
His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark.
1: My first impressions of the pitch clock
The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. 
To me it seemed like ... not a big deal?
It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact).
I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 
2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches
Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with.
Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup.
Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well.
3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff
The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways.
Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two.
For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game.
4: Big bases come in handy
The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday.
Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. 
I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last.
5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily
Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. 
There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly.
Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. 
The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). 
On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 
Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 
Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 
In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 
As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 
This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 
While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 
Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

Torvald Carlsson spends his days curating a formidable collection of Minnesota sports memorabilia. The retired Scandia educator counts a row of seats from the old Met Stadium, a signed Bernie Bierman football, and an original George Mikan Minneapolis Lakers jersey as his most prized possessions. His newest acquisition might be his most unique one yet.
“I was browsing eBay the other day and saw that they put the entire Bally Sports North network up for auction,” said Carlsson. “I don’t really need it, but at $37.50 I figured why the heck not. And now I guess I own the gosh darned thing.”
Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports North and 18 other regional sports networks, recently skipped a $140 million interest payment, signaling that bankruptcy could soon be imminent. A spokesperson confirmed that Carlsson was on the path to being BSN's new owner, but refused to say if the online auction was part of the company’s plan to recoup needed funds. 
Meanwhile, the new owner of the network that brings Twins, Wild, and Timberwolves games to Minnesota cable subscribers says he has no big plans to change anything for now.
“It’s a whole deal,” said the 71-year-old. “Keeping track of the day-to-day is a real humdinger, I don’t suppose I’ll be a part of that. They just sent me a whole bunch of papers in the mail and (former Twin and current BSN analyst) Tim Laudner is sleeping in my driveway. Ma (Carlsson’s wife Gail) brings him some supper and that seems to settle him down some.”
While a lot of logistical questions remain unanswered (“I guess Glen Perkins needs a food taster on all road trips due to his long list of enemies and rivals,” said Carlsson), Bally employees are hopeful this leads to better days at the company.
“I’m optimistic,” said Dick Bremer, longtime play-by-play voice of Twins. “Ever since Bert (Blyleven, Bremer’s former broadcast partner) retired, I’ve lost weight, I sleep through the night without crying, and no one has taped a ‘FART MASTER’ sign to my back. Not once. They can pay me with pizza crusts and expired Marlboro Miles. I truly don’t care. I am the happiest man in the world.”
Image license here. 

For the Minnesota Twins, 2023 represents an opportunity to right the ship. Rocco Baldelli got off to a great start in his managerial career, but since the 2019 Bomba Squad, things haven’t been the same. Despite a postseason berth in 2020, the Twins have missed playoff baseball each of the past two years. This roster looks the part of being the best we’ve seen in some time, and the front office now wants to see it matter on the field.
While we are still a bit away from seeing the Twins in game action, there is plenty to catch up on from the offseason. Who’s Out
From the Opening Day roster last year, just 14 players currently remain in the system. Notably, starting catcher Gary Sanchez is gone, and so too are starting infielders Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela. Minnesota flipped the arbitration-eligible Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for prospect Alejandro Hidalgo, while Arraez’s departure brought in Jorge Lopez (along with Jose Salas and Byron Chourio). The rotation will no longer see Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer among it, and longstanding organizational piece Miguel Sano remains unemployed at the moment.
For Minnesota, this roster is one of renewed belief. Although Arraez was beloved by fans, his deal brought in much-needed pitching help. It will be weird to see Sano in a different uniform if and when he ever surfaces again, but not being in the organization has removed a vein for storylines. The rotation a season ago was largely pieced together, and with both departures for the Twins still being unemployed, it’s not shocking that the new group shows more promise.
Who’s In
Most importantly, Carlos Correa is back. Although it took some weird twists and turns to happen, Correa is with the organization at least for another six years, meaning that his deal lines up perfectly with Byron Buxton’s. A true superstar shortstop, Twins fans could watch C4 trend towards an eventual Hall of Fame enshrinement due to his exploits in the new Minnesota threads. The shortstop is also joined by a new backstop in Christian Vazquez. He is expected to start the bulk of Minnesota’s games, and will push Ryan Jeffers into more of a reserve role than he saw a season ago. The outfield grabbed an addition in Joey Gallo, and while he’ll need to bounce back from a down season with the Dodgers and Yankees, he adds defensive talent that could make Minnesota’s outfield the best in baseball.
The rotation brings back Kenta Maeda at 100% after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, and the aforementioned Lopez should be expected to contribute in a big way as well. The bullpen has largely gone unaddressed, but that could be an area Minnesota looks to tweak before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer was added as a fallback option, and now immediately slots in as a high-level utility player.
What Are We Watching For
This season is one for the youth. Jose Miranda is going to start at the hot corner and be expected to contribute immediately. Plenty of promise has followed Alex Kirilloff, and it’s up to his wrist as to whether he can be the regular at first base. Trevor Larnach has looked the part of a true impact bat, but injuries have kept him off the field. He was solid in left field last season, but will need to show he can remain healthy. That was the major downfall last year, health, and Nick Paparesta’s addition to the organization can hopefully make a quiet impact. Seeing the likes of Buxton, Tyler Mahle, Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, and any number of other players remain available should only enhance Minnesota’s chances. Which Twins player will breakout in 2023? We have seen Louie Varland win the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year each of the past two seasons (2021, 2022). Royce Lewis made his big league debut in 2022 and should be back this summer. Simeon Woods Richardson showed up for one start at the end of the year as well. Does Austin Martin or Brooks Lee get the call? Maybe David Festa forces his way into big league action. Although the Twins may not have the top end talent of some other organizations, their prospect depth is plenty exciting.
Many of Minnesota’s regulars will remain in camp with the organization. There are a few others that will play for their native countries in the World Baseball Classic this spring. Checking out a few of them in action during more meaningful games could give fans a glimpse of how ready they are for the regular season to start.
With Cleveland having made just minor upgrades in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, their top spot is ripe for the picking. Andrew Benintendi is a nice get for Chicago, but expecting Mike Clevinger to contribute there any time soon isn’t a good bet. The division is again right there for the taking, and it starts this week.

In a season introducing a slate of impactful new laws - the pitch clock, limits on the shift, and tweaks to encourage base running - MLB couldn’t help but dive into more minor waters, breaking through with bends-induced plans.
The first: the extra-inning free runner on second base will continue in 2023 and beyond. Initially introduced in the truncated 2020 season, the runner - referred to as the Manfred Man, the zombie runner, the ghost runner, or whatever other snide label you prefer - the rule intended to halt the massive extra-inning slog fests. Gone are the days of 18-inning fever dreams. The next-day pitcher shuffling is now a relic. Postseason games will remain unaffected by the law.
With editorial restraint, the rule has proven effective. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports notes that “[w]ith the extra-innings tiebreaker rule, only seven games have gone as long as 13 innings the last three seasons. There were 37 13-inning games in 2019 alone, the last year with "normal" extra-inning rules.”
The other announced change pertains to position players pitching. Once considered a fun white flag to wave in a blowout, MLB teams, as they so often do, bastardized its original meaning, instead using fielders to save their relievers from extra strain. Jesse Rogers of ESPN writes that “[i]n 2017, there were 32 instances of position players pitching in a game. Last season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, that number jumped to 132.”
The new rule only allows position players to pitch in these scenarios:
Extra-innings In the 9th inning, if the leading team is winning by 10 or more runs In any inning, if the losing team is behind by eight or more runs According to Eric Stephens, the new rule would have eliminated around 39 instances of a position player pitching in 2022. 
And now, the editorializing:
The extra-inning rule is an insult to baseball. As MLB continues down its path of restricting as much baseball to be played as possible, they concluded that, in fact, baseball is its own enemy and must be stopped. Games cannot breathe as intended. Close matches are frowned upon. The rules must closely watch over play, punishing the game for moving in its own way for the sake of appeasing teams treating roster spots like gold. MLB knows this; they use the original rules in the postseason because winning via the extra-inning runner is an unnatural phenomena.
The position player rule, however, is much needed. It was fun when Michael Cuddyer took the mound to toss a few meatballs in a blowout, but 132 moments of a position player on the mound is far too high. They’re calls for mercy; increasing the instances is sad. Although, removing the 39 times a position player pitched in 2022 still gives you 93 outings. Perhaps the problem is more that the good teams are crushing the bad teams at historical rates.
What do you think of these new or updated rules? How do you feel about the decision to keep the Manfred Man in extra innings during the regular season? How do you feel about position players pitching? Leave a COMMENT below. 

Last Friday, the Twins finally bit the bullet and shipped Luis Arráez off to Miami in return for Pablo Lopez and two exciting prospects. It’s a sensible move, but the Twins will need to replace Arráez’s production on the field after his 3.2 fWAR 2022 season.
Alex Kirilloff appears to be the heir apparent at first base, which was likely to be Arráez’s primary position in the field, with Joey Gallo, Kyle Farmer, Jose Miranda, and Edouard Julien
in line to get time at the spot as well. The team shouldn’t struggle to fill the designated hitter spot, either, with the number of players that would benefit from half-days at DH. 
However, there is a role that Arráez filled with no clear replacement—leadoff hitter. It’s the biggest question right now about the Twins lineup, and Ted Schwerzler has already mentioned a couple of top candidates. But let’s crunch some numbers and see if any new cream rises to the top (of the lineup).
There is some debate about how much having a stereotypical leadoff hitter matters to team performance, with some adamant that having someone at the top of the lineup who gets on base consistently leads to more runs. Others believe that the sequencing doesn’t necessarily matter and that the top players should hit as many times as possible over the course of the season, no matter the style.
I’m not here to settle that argument, though it makes good reading from analysts wiser than myself. Instead, I want to look at the current roster to see which players fit the mold best.
The common idea of a prototypical leadoff hitter is a player who gets on base, can run the bases, and, as Patrick Reusse asserts, sees a lot of pitches. There probably isn’t a player who checks all those boxes on the current squad. Luis probably didn’t either, given that his footspeed leaves a lot to be desired, although he is a good baserunner. I was interested, though, in seeing which players might be the best fit, based on those criteria.
I looked at every hitter projected to make the team out of Spring Training based on Fangraph’s Roster Resource. I then compiled select stats from A) 2021-2022 and A) Steamer projections for each player. The players were ranked 1-13 based on their OBP, Fangraphs baserunning runs per 550 plate appearances, and average pitches per plate appearance (there aren’t projections for P/PA, so I used career averages for the projections). These three stats measure the player’s ability to get on base, run the bases, and see many pitches.
Let’s see who fits the bill. Unsurprisingly, among the top four in both past performance and 2023 projections were the three players widely believed to be the Twins’ best hitters. The other may surprise some people.
#4 Byron Buxton (4th Past, t-4th Projection)
Past Rankings: 3rd OBP (.327), 1st BsR (7.5), 8th P/PA (3.84)
2023 Projections: 8th OBP (.304), 1st BsR (1.2), 8th P/PA (3.78)
Buxton’s elite speed very much buoys his score on this exercise. As a free-swinger, he doesn’t see a lot of pitches, and his OBP is dependent on his average with his lack of walks. If he hits for an average over .300, as he did in 2021, he’ll be on base a good amount. The team will probably slot him in a more stereotypical power spot, given his ability to hit for extra bases. Nonetheless, he may get some run at the top of the order, as he has in past years.
#3 Carlos Correa (3rd Past, 3rd Projection)
Past Rankings: 1st OBP (.366), 8th BsR (-3.0), 2nd P/PA (4.08)
2023 Projections: 1st OBP (.351), 12th BsR (-0.9), 2nd P/PA (4.05)
Almost the polar opposite of Buxton, Correa’s scores are weighed down by his lack of baserunning—the only player projected to lose more runs on the basepaths is Christian Vazquez. If it weren’t for those abysmal scores, he easily would have come out on top. He will, like Buxton, probably bat second or third, but it’s not unreasonable to think he may hit leadoff a bit, especially against lefties.
#2 Jorge Polanco (2nd Past, t-1st Projection)
Past Rankings: 2nd OBP (.332), 4th BsR (2.0), 4th P/PA (4.03)
2023 Projections: 2nd OBP (.332), t-4th BsR (0.0), 5th P/PA (3.97)
Polanco is probably the best bet to serve as the leadoff man, and he barely missed the top spot in this exercise. He gets on base, runs well, and turns in good at-bats—so long as his ankle pain doesn’t cause him to pirouette out of the box on a swing. Leaning even further into the stereotype of a leadoff man, he’s also a middle infielder. He probably would have hit cleanup in a lineup with Arráez, but he’s a dependable option to plug in at the top of any order, given his balanced skillset and approach.
#1 Joey Gallo (1st Past, t-1st Projection)
Past Rankings: 5th OBP (.323), 3rd BsR (2.5), 1st P/PA (4.23)
2023 Projections: 6th OBP (.313), t-4th BsR (0.0), 1st P/PA (4.22)
Oh no. The spreadsheets have gone too far.
It doesn’t sound right, but by this definition of a leadoff hitter, Joey Gallo, of all people, is the top option. He leads players in pitches seen by a wide margin. He actually runs the bases well, even with his large frame. He gets on base at a good clip, too—the past performance metric includes his miserable play from the last season and a half. 
It sounds absurd, but we’re only three seasons removed from Rocco running out another unconventional leadoff hitter in Max Kepler . I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least a trial run of Gallo hitting leadoff in 2023. It seems in line with this front office.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Speaking of Kepler, he tied Buxton in this exercise for fourth in the projections, and Trevor Larnach , of all players, landed in fifth in past performance. Another option not included is Edouard Julien, because he has no past performance, and Fangraphs only projects him for 26 plate appearances. Julien, though, gets on base as well as anyone, and if he hits at the Major League level, he’s undoubtedly a leadoff candidate.
Admittedly, the three categories here probably shouldn’t be given equal weight, but it was still a fun exercise, and Gallo falls to third if the weight of OBP is doubled. Who do you want to see batting leadoff in 2023?

It may seem like just yesterday that Joe Mauer donned his catching equipment one last time before saying farewell to a roaring Target Field crowd. But it’s now been five years since his 2018 retirement, meaning the lifelong Twin is eligible for Baseball’s Hall of Fame.
And for the most miserable bastards in Minnesota, it couldn’t come soon enough.
“As much as I hate to admit it, I’ve missed him since he retired,” said Tom Hanson, 58. The Anoka resident and classic North Metro redass has been banned from every social media website ever created. “He’s the worst baseball player I’ve ever seen and he should be in jail for stealing money from hard-working Minnesotans. But all the same, I’ve missed sending angry emails about him to our bought-and-paid-for local media shills.”
Hanson, who is no longer welcome in the IHOP family of breakfast restaurants, foresees a multi-year campaign against the former American League MVP.
“The first year, I expect the baseball writers to step up and keep him out because they do that to good players, too,” said Hanson. “Patriots will do the heavy lifting after that. A sustained barrage of complaints to talk radio, comments left in newspaper comment sections, skywriting. My stepson who no longer talks to me does raps on the internet, it would be nice to bring him into the fold if (ex-fourth wife) Bonnie would quit being such a [INCREDIBLY VILE EXPLETIVE].”
Hanson isn’t alone.
“All I know is players used to play hurt or they didn’t play,” said Bruce Schafer, 62, of Dayton. “Mauer didn’t even play when he was healthy and now the woke mob wants me to act like he’s a Hall of Famer? Hell no.”
Schafer, who frequently shares inaccurate stories about vaccine efficacy and Barack Obama’s long-form birth certificate on Facebook, said the opportunity to set the record straight about the three-time batting champ is one he welcomes.
“This is like Christmas and the 4th of July all in one,” said the unloved man. “There are kids out there who’ve never heard the term ‘bilateral leg weakness’ used to mock someone with a brain injury. Just another example of cancel culture going too far.”

On Thursday, Twins Daily’s Melissa Berman explored some of the most exciting promos and ticket deals at Target Field this season. Today, we look at some of the less popular ones.
TOMMY HERR BOBBLEHEAD NIGHT: The wildly unpopular return in the trade for beloved World Series champion Tom Brunansky gets his own tribute on May 14th! The first 5,000 fans will receive a bobblehead that sulks, pouts, and has a remarkably lifelike “I don’t even want to be here” setting. “It’s as off-putting as the real thing,” said a clubhouse source. “Like a rag doll you find in an abandoned hospital.”
ALL YOU CAN EAT DOME DOG NIGHT: “While clearing out one of the team’s storage units in Maplewood, we discovered freezers full of Dome Dogs from 2009,” said Twins President Dave St. Peter. “Food waste is a real problem in this country, and we’re doing our part to address it.” On August 4th, adventurous foodies can purchase a standing-room seat plus a lanyard giving them unfettered access to 14-year-old meats for $25. HCMC, the Minnesota Department of Health, and The Vatican have already issued statements condemning the promotion.
SIT NEXT TO AN UNPLEASANT MAN FOR $7: “We always have a stray spot available in our premium sections behind home plate and in the suites,” said a front office source. “Without exception, they’re near a very loud man with too much money and too many opinions. But the seats are awesome.” Available in packages of 5, 10, or 20 games, these tickets are priced to move and will be especially appealing to those who have a high tolerance for hearing about who the real racists are.
THE BULLPEN BUDDY: With the team’s relief pitching still in need of upgrades, not a lot of free agent options, and a significant outlay of cash for Carlos Correa, the Twins are getting creative. This $1000 ticket allows you to sit in the home bullpen for any of the 81 games. The only catch: you’re pitching the 6th inning. “We’re getting money in the coffers and letting some folks live their dream of pitching against Mike Trout and Aaron Judge,” said a source with knowledge of the front office’s thinking. “There is some downside risk in that it violates league rules and a line drive will likely kill the ticketholder instantly, but we need to look at the big picture and let our legal team hash it out.” PECOTA projects an average Twins ticket buyer to have an ERA of infinity, making them roughly equivalent to Emilio Pagan “at a team-friendly price,” said the source.
Image license here.
 

If the Twins want playoffs in 2023 (let alone a World Series Championship), at the very least, one thing must occur. If you toss out whatever the empty stands 2020 season brought us, no team since 2015 has made the playoffs with a road record of less than .460. Not a single team. This statistical oddity stands out more clearly when comparing the 2022 Twins squad against the 2019 Bomba Squad. What would you say if I told you that the Twins' home records for those two seasons were exactly the same!? 
It's true. Once the shock wore off, I triple-checked it. In the 2019 and 2022 seasons, the Twins were a respectable and playoff-bound 46-35 at home. So what made the difference between the excitement and potential of the 2019 playoff run and last year’s disappointment? To put it bluntly: road trips.
In 2019, the Twins were an astounding 55-28 on the road! In 2022, the Twins managed a below-MLB road record average 32-49 mark. (Click here for another, less recent, trip down the rabbit hole of why home teams win 54% of games in the MLB.) That’s a 23-win difference on the road between 2019 and 2022! How on earth does such a thing transpire?
Well, for the 2022 Twins, it happened slowly and consistently over the entirety of the season.
In fact, the only two road trips that the Twins secured a winning record were the second and third trips of the 2022 season. (They went 4-3 against Tampa Bay and Baltimore and 5-1 against Oakland and Kansas City.) They played around .500 ball on the road the rest of the way until the fateful ninth trip to Los Angeles in mid-August. After going 1-4 against the Dodgers and Angels, the Twins finished their last four road trips 5-19. 5…and…19….
So what went wrong on the road? A couple of abnormal instances pop up when you dig a little deeper. The Twins were 6-23 in road games determined by 2 runs or less. In fact, the “pitchers taking the L on the road” list runs like a who’s who of the Twins bullpen. No one leaves unscathed.
Also, during the end of the season road collapse, the Twins were without Byron Buxton. Yet, they managed to go 15-10 at home during this same stretch of games. So what about Byron’s absence made the road woes so magnified? In fact, the Twins went 6-23 overall on the road in 2022 when Byron was out with an injury.
I’m enough of a statistician to know that a few instances do not make a correlation, and they definitely don’t make causation. However, where there is smoke, there usually is fire. 
Do the Twins’ 2023 playoff hopes actually hinge on this obscure and recent part of baseball’s seasonal grind, and Byron's health/our bullpen's strength? Or does Carlos Correa officially being a Twin “for life” now, as opposed to the “soon to be free agent”, bring enough leadership to buoy the Twins through the inevitable injuries this time?  
I would argue that the soft-science of clubhouse "unity" gets magnified on the road. With the signing and security of locking down Correa and his assistant GM leadership, do the Twins now have a formula for righting this wrong in 2023?
We shall see. 31,759 miles and 14 road trips await the Twins this season. The Twins will start their 2023 campaign on the road in Kansas City and Miami, winnable games to be sure. But the next three journeys take the Twins through the Bronx, Fenway, Cleveland, and Dodgers Stadium, to name a few. Reaching their ultimate goal will depend on holding their own in the face of these early tests. 
Root, root, root for the home team, indeed! But if the Twins' road trips don’t bring them at least 38 wins, you can kiss the playoff dreams goodbye.
 

With the calendar reading 2023, it’s hard not to think of spring training. And with a free agent class essentially picked clean and the trade rumors silent, it’s hard not to wonder who, exactly, is going to be on the Minnesota Twins come April. At least one source has run the numbers and is startled at the findings.
“Usually, I base these outlooks on the current roster, the farm system, free agents, the needs of other teams, and payroll,” said Aaron Gleeman, The Athletic’s Minnesota Twins correspondent and world record holder for most takeout duck sauce packets in one refrigerator (354). “The thing is, what always comes back is a major league roster. This time…”
Gleeman’s voice trailed off.
“Here, I’ll open the spreadsheet.”
Rather than columns of names, positions, ages, and salaries, the screen cut to black, a black as eternal and smothering as a starless winter night. From the laptop speakers came what at first sounded like a low moan. It soon escalated into a mournful, broken howl. The sound, not quite human, not quite animal, made clear it was no stranger to the depths of sorrow.
After 25-30 seconds, the sound ended. A picture of former Twin Chuck Knoblauch getting pelted with hot dogs at the Metrodome appeared, and Twins radio broadcaster Dan Gladden said, “This roster projection brought to you by Minnesota Rusco, since 1965.”
“I can’t explain any of this,” said Gleeman. “I mean, I’m as skeptical of the state of the roster right now as anyone, but I just kinda figured it would come back with Michael Wacha and Elvis Andrus or something, you know? The machine doesn’t usually do this.”
Fellow beat writers and columnists report similar troubling results.
“I had to file my first spring training preview for Sunday’s paper,” said the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller. “I sent it to my editors, and they said, ‘Ha ha, very funny.’ I asked them to clarify, and they said ‘This is the Book of Revelations, Phil.’ I checked the original document, and sure enough. Nothing about what I wrote on Royce Lewis, but a whole sidebar regarding pestilence.”
“I heard about Aaron’s issue so figured I’d just take a look at my own files,” said Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press. “All my notes are there, but they’re in Latin. The letters are blood red. I don’t know any Latin, and Alden Global Capital (the hedge fund that owns the Pioneer Press) doesn’t give us laptops that display color.”
The Twins open their spring training schedule on Saturday, February 25th.

1. Never underestimate the draw of the Brewers series, Blue Jays series, and Prince Night. By the eye test and official numbers, these games drew the largest crowds of the year by far- even more than Opening Day (which was quite chilly this year). It is incredible how well Brewers and Toronto fans travel, which is likely because Target Field is closer for many members of the “Brew Crew” and Toronto fanbases than Miller Park in Milwaukee or Rogers Centre in Toronto.
When I arrived for these games, I was shocked at how difficult it was to find parking, how packed the concourses were, and how much Brewers and Blue Jays Blue filled the seats. Make a mental note to leave lots of extra time if you plan on attending one of these games next season.  
2. But otherwise, attendance was lackluster this year. Even with the Twins battling for the top of the division for much of the season, in 2022, the Twins finished 20th in MLB attendance, averaging 22,514 fans per game. In 2019, the Bomba Squad season, the Twins brought in about 28,000 fans per game. Truthfully, many games felt much emptier than that 22,000 figure, especially weekday games and games in the spring and September. However, entire seating sections were empty on beautiful summer nights, too.   We know that team performance impacts attendance, but with the Twins playing competitive baseball the majority of the season, I was often surprised just how empty Target Field felt for many games. There were almost never any security or bathroom lines, and there was always plenty of space in the concourse, so that when games were busy, it was almost jarring.   The Twins tried to compensate for the low attendance by running a myriad of bargain ticket deals at various points during the season. These included a limited-time sale in which fans could buy $4 upper level tickets to any weekday game during the season, and expanding college ticket night to every night in September. 3. Fans love post-game concerts, and the Twins should do more in the future. Maybe the most fun idea the Twins had all season was to host a free full-length concert after one of their games. In August, Twins fans who hung around after a Twins- Blue Jays game sang along to a 75-minute show by country music artist Cole Swindell.
Even though I’m not a country music fan, the show quality was excellent, and the reviews from fans were almost universally positive (except from the Twins fans who were annoyed by the sudden influx cowboy hat-clad music fans traipsing up and down the aisles during the game). Because the Twins have not done much to whip up excitement among their fans via trades and the free agent market this offseason, they should consider treating fans to more shows or promotions in the future to get them in the doors.
4. This season had two of the craziest weather games in recent memory. The most memorable game I went to all year was only three innings: the Twins rainout vs. the Houston Astros on Star Wars Night, May 11. I remember evacuating into the lower level concourse and watching the wind blow the rain in sheets with a ferocity I had never before seen.
I jotted down everything I noticed and heard using my cell phone notes app. I sloshed back to my car, arrived at my apartment, and found that the power was out, so I wrote my narrative account of the game’s chaotic events while sitting in the dark. The result was perhaps my favorite piece I wrote this year.
To be fair, I attended the game knowing that some wild weather was going to blow in, and I wanted to see what happened. I was surprised they chose to play the game at all.
After this, I thought I would not see such severe weather at a game for a long time, but similar severe weather blew in on July 12, seemingly out of nowhere and on the first night of the Brewers series. I remember being trapped on the upper-level concourse (people packed into the stairwells, bathrooms, and indoor areas seeking shelter from the wind and blowing rain) while being sprayed with cold rain blown by the high winds.
A major takeaway I had from these rainy games is how unbelievable Target Field's water drainage system is; the Twins were able to resume the game after about an hour delay. No one likes rain delays, but everyone loves Club Rayne. 

Calm after the storm as seen from Target Field during rain delay on July 12
5. Target Field upped the fanfare this season. Late in the 2022 season, Target Field began dimming the lights during Jhoan Duran’s entrance song. To my knowledge, the Twins have never done that for a pitcher, especially one who is not a closer. Jorge Lopez also got the dimmed lights treatment with his horror movie-themed walkout. Walkout songs have always been a bit of a show (remember Fernando Rodney's electric entrance?), but they became their own spectacle this season due in part to the Mets’ Edwin Diaz’s viral walkout song "Narco." Pitcher entrances across the league became their show within the show this season, and the Twins kept pace.  
In addition, 2022 was the first season in which TC Bear drove around the perimeter of the field in an ATV after every win carrying a "Twins Win!" flag. The Twins also premiered a giant t-shirt cannon called the "Mall of America Blaster," which they shot from the same place on the rightfield concourse every game.
6. The “5 Lookalikes” bit was the best new thing at the stadium. Whether it’s Chubbs Peterson from “Happy Gilmore,” Captain Kangaroo (ask your parents), Jay Leno/Paul Allen, or Iceman from Top Gun, it is incredible how Twins staff can spot fans in the crowd and accurately match them up with a celebrity or fictional character that they resemble. Though some comparisons are closer than others, many of the lookalikes were borderline uncanny. Seeing the unsuspecting doppelganger’s reaction to noticing themselves up on the big screen was priceless.
7. Seeing the Twins play at an away ballpark is unbridled joy. Perhaps my favorite experience of this year, baseball or not, was seeing the Twins play the Chicago White Sox on October 3 at Guaranteed Rate Field. I have been to Twins spring training several times, but this was the first time I had seen the Twins play in another city. Being a visiting fan in an opposing ballpark, “enemy territory,” was a unique and exhilarating feeling.
I was proud to wear my Twins jersey and hat even though the Twins were way out of the division race by that point, and it was fun high-fiving other Twins fans I came across in the stadium. I thought Guaranteed Rate Field was beautiful. Before the game, we went and got Chicago-style pizza at a place called Ricobenes near the stadium and tailgated outside the stadium in Lot B.
8. The Twins should consider doing Hall of Fame ceremonies before the game or at least clearly advertise when the game is actually going to start. Look, I get it; the Twins do not want an empty house when Twins greats like Dan Gladden and Ron Gardenhire walk up to take the podium at their Twins Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies. At the same time, it makes for an exceptionally long day for fans, especially those with children, when the game starts an hour after it was advertised.
Watching Dan Gladden’s acceptance speech on a sunny Sunday, Kids Day, at Target Field, I was surrounded by squirming children. Hall of Fame ceremonies are not a regular occurrence for the Twins, but maybe in the future, the Twins should clearly state that the listed start time of the game is actually the start of the ceremony.
9. The Twins have its littlest fans to thank for their packed attendance during day games. If you’re not a fan of little kids, and lots of them, day games during the summer are probably not for you. The entire upper deck at many day games consisted almost solely of kids’ day camps, all wearing their matching camp t-shirts. Their unified “Let’s Go Twins!” chants were adorable and impressive. 
10. Some of the favorite moments I saw at Target Field in 2022: Royce Lewis' first MLB home run- a grand slam- on May 13; Gary Sánchez's grand slam on April 10; the Twins' walkoff win vs the White Sox in the 10th inning on April 24; Max Kepler's grand slam on May 23, which was the 1000th home run hit by a Twins player at Target Field; the Twins hitting back-to-back-to back home runs on June 9; Louie Varland's home debut on September 23.
11. There are some really special people at Target Field. From the more visible figures like Target Field staple Sue Nelson on organ and the local artist Kickliy to those behind the scenes, like Bally Sports audio engineer Chris Tveitbakk, who mixes the sound for every Twins home game broadcast from the Bally truck behind Target Field, we are lucky to have so many unique, interesting, and passionate people working at the ballpark. 
12. No matter how the Twins are playing, there is no better place to be than Target Field on a summer night. You’re reading Twins Daily; it’s evident that you care deeply about the success of the team. I do too. But every season, no matter where the team is in the standings, I stand by the fact that Target Field is the best place to be on a beautiful summer night.
Despite going to 56 games at Target Field, sometimes as many as six in a week, I never got tired of going. I never grew bored of the skyline views, the post-game fireworks, Sue Nelson on the organ, Minnie and Paul shaking hands after a win, or the Dollar Dogs. There is just so much to love about Target Field, and time spent with friends and loved ones at a baseball game is never time wasted. 
Happy 2023! Thank you much for reading my work this year and all your kind and thoughtful comments. Joining Twins Daily had been such a joy. Here's to a year filled with lots of baseball, Twins wins, and for me, maybe 60 in-person games!
 

Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. That’s all we really know about the state of Carlos Correa’s future employment and the ankle he injured a decade ago. Nine-figure deals with the Giants and Mets have either evaporated completely or exist in some kind of limbo. The Twins reportedly had limited interest in a reunion after the San Francisco signing fell through, despite their stated desire to sign him long term.
Something’s up. Fortunately, Twins Daily has access to the kind of advanced metrics other baseball websites can only dream of. Using these bleeding-edge tools, we’ve been able to project the next organizations that will sign Correa to a massive long-term contract, only for it to instantly go sideways.
The Pittsburgh Pirates. Reason: Thought it was Kevin Correia. Honest mistake. The Chicago White Sox. Reason: Team wants to save money for giving Tony La Russa one last shot at managing the game on the field versus the one happening in his mind palace. “He’s a Hall of Famer,” said team source. The Oakland Athletics. Reason: Signing ceremony postponed due to monthly raw sewage leak. The Miami Marlins. Reason: Correa would have to find location for hideous outfield home run sculpture and pay movers. "A dealbreaker," said Boras. The 1986 New York Mets. Reason: Boras, Correa refuse to be paid in cocaine. The Miami Heat. Reason: Only shoots mid-range jumpers. The Green Bay Packers. Reasons: Scott Boras balks at payment in worthless company stock; Correa thinks Kroll’s butter burgers are overcooked, has also never played football. Waffle House, Walterboro, SC location. Reason: Being on feet all day while catching chairs in midair enhances injury risk. The Fellowship of the Ring. Reason: Journey on foot to Mordor exacerbates stress on leg in question; Boras demands standard percentage of The One Ring, Isildur’s Bane, which was forged in the fires of Mount Doom and only there can be destroyed. Image license here.

Carlos Correa’s departure for San Francisco leaves the Minnesota Twins with a gaping hole at shortstop. While rumored to be interested in free agent Dansby Swanson, the team announced a different plan on Thursday.
“We made our best efforts to keep Carlos in Minnesota,” said Twins GM Derek Falvey. “Sometimes, that’s all you can do. And we’re taking that lesson to heart. Best Efforts will be our shortstop in 2023.”
The concept of trying your best and failing to reach your objective is nothing new in baseball or American sport. However, no one has attempted to use an intangible state of being as a position player. Not even the Orioles.
“We’ve got some spreadsheets, some pivot tables, and one of those green visors that crooked bankers wore during the Great Depression,” said Falvey. “Proof of our good-faith attempts at bringing a championship to Target Field will be available for all to see at one of the game’s premium positions. Good intentions and due financial diligence are a killer combo anywhere in the lineup.”
That quote was part of a rambling, handwritten press release on official Minnesota Twins letterhead. MINNESOTA MAKES CARLOS CORREA TWIN FOR LIFE is visible under hastily applied liquid paper. Stains from coffee and human tears are also visible on the paragraph where Falvey notes that the team, which finished 78-84 in a disappointing 2022 season, would be giving We Tried a shot in the bullpen.
“We have a lot of young arm talent that we’ll be looking at in Fort Myers,” said Falvey. “We Tried will be part of that mix, along with Part Of The Conversation and On The Shortlist.”
The statement does not mention what, if any, plans there are for Blockbuster Trade That Fizzled and Punching Above Their Weight But Ultimately Falling Just Short.  
Image license here.

Ha-Seong Kim, the KBO legend who had a breakout 2022 season in San Diego, is the perfect medium. Now with Xander Bogaerts in place, the Padres might have one too many infielders and be on the look out for a trade with needs they still hope to fit. Kim might make for a neat departure to Minnesota.
Kim’s MLB ascent never felt like destiny. He signed with the Padres on a four-year deal at the same time the team had given Fernando Tatis Jr. a contract to essentially play shortstop for the next decade. That first year, Kim moved around the diamond playing second and third base but eventually fell into the role of shortstop after a shoulder injury pushed Tatis to the outfield.  
Like most players coming from Asian leagues, Kim at first struggled to adjust to big-league pitching, hitting just above the Mendoza Line (.200) and lacking the kind of power that made him one of Korea’s most dominant players. But Kim got a major opportunity in 2022 after Tatis, who was already looking at a more permanent position in the outfield, failed to return to the field first due to a motorcycle accident and then a PED suspension. Kim adjusted his swing, hitting a respectable .251/.325/.383 for a 105 WRC+. He perhaps lacked the power that defines so many of the league’s best bats, but spent the year honing his plate discipline to avoid chasing the ball and simply getting on base. He also stole a dozen bases—more than anyone with the Twins last year, and likely to be an essential skill in next year’s pitch clock environment.
More so, every night in San Diego he put on a defensive clinic. Although defensive metrics for baseball remain somewhat nebulous, he posted a 10.0 Defensive WAR, over twice what Kyle Farmer and Correa managed last year (this may just speak to the weakness of those decisions).
The Padres have Kim for another two years and a mutual option in 2025, but AJ Preller seems determined to lock up every superstar he can get his hands on. That might make their needs change. While it is possible that Kim flips back over the second base or occasionally fills for Manny Machado, the org may be on the lookout for other possible holes to fill instead that the Twins might be able to provide.
Kim’s contract is perfect for the Twins. Elite defense is always needed, and if Kim continues to improve against big league pitching, he could fit in nicely in the heart of the order (and speaking of clutch: Kim was a major player for the Padres' unlikely playoff wins against both the Mets and the Dodgers at a time in which neither Machado nor Juan Soto did much damage). 
More so, the big question mark remains what a timeline for either Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee might look like. With Kyle Farmer, you pray that Lewis is ready as soon as he can get on his feet. But with Kim under control for two years, you might actually have time to let Lewis loosen up while also perhaps already ceding that ground to Lee if his timeline continues. With both Farmer and Kim, the Twins can mix and match as well as platoon throughout the infield.
Given recent blockbuster contracts for not just superstars but even mid-rotation pitchers, the Twins should just realize if they do not plan on dumping money on Correa’s front lawn, they are likely to miss on every free agent pitcher this year. Spending real money should remain the organization’s goal, but if they genuinely care about being creative instead, Kim could be an interesting middle ground to avoid one-year contracts and give genuine time to develop the rookies.
 

MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) instituted a Draft Lottery like the NBA and NHL. Previously, the team with the worst record from the previous season was guaranteed the top overall pick. Now, the worst teams aren’t guaranteed a top-six pick, and the bottom three teams have the same odds of getting the top pick. The 18 teams that missed the postseason have a chance at the top overall pick. Minnesota entered the draft with the 13th-best odds of receiving the top pick (0.9%).  
There are also restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. 

MLB Draft Lottery Results
As expected, the 2023 MLB Draft order shifted because of the Draft Lottery. The Twins made the biggest jump of any team by moving from the 13th overall pick to fifth overall. For 2022, the first 18 picks will follow this order: 
1. Pirates (Up 2)
2. Nationals  (Down 1)
3. Tigers (Up 3)
4. Rangers (Up 3)
5. Twins (Up 8)
6. A's (Down 4)
7. Reds (Down 3) 
8. Royals (Down 3)
9. Rockies (Down 1)
10. Marlins (Down 1)
11. Angels (Down 1)
12. D-Backs (Down 1)
13. Cubs (Down 1)
14. Red Sox
15. White Sox
16. Giants
17. Orioles
18. Brewers

Competitive Balance Round Pick
Earlier this week, MLB announced the Competitive Balance Draft picks to teams that fall in the bottom 10 in revenue or market size. Competitive Balance Round A takes place after the completion of the first round, and these picks are the only ones that clubs are allowed to trade. Minnesota can hang on to this top-40 pick, or it might be an intriguing piece to trade this winter. The Round A picks are as follows:
1. Mariners
2. Rays
3. Brewers
4. Twins
5. Marlins
6. Tigers
7. Reds
8. A’s

Minnesota’s Recent First-Round Picks 
In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins took Brooks Lee with the eighth overall pick, and he has shot up national top-100 lists because of his strong professional debut. During the 2021 MLB Draft, Minnesota had two picks in the top 36. Chase Petty was the team’s first pick (26th overall), and the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. Noah Miller was a Competitive Balance Round pick (36th overall) and posted a .627 OPS in 108 Low-A games last season. 

The 2020 MLB Draft was shortened due to the pandemic, and Minnesota selected college slugger Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick. He ended last year at Double-A and posted a .774 OPS for the 2022 season. In 2019, the Twins also had two first-round picks, with Keoni Cavaco selected 13th overall and Matt Wallner picked in the Competitive Balance Round. Wallner has entered the team’s long-term plans after a tremendous season in the upper minors. Cavaco will likely spend 2023 at Cedar Rapids as he continues to develop his swing. 

What thoughts do you have on the first-ever MLB Draft lottery? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.