What's the Appeal? What's the Deal? Exploring Trades for Starting Pitching Help

Love this! Great ideas! What would you think of Mitch Keller from Pittsburgh? Young, controllable, was really good for most of last season. I’ll hang up and listen :)

I’m wondering if Arraez over Miranda for Woodruff might be a similar value?

Jamie, hate to be the bearer of bad news but I think the Twins would have to kick in more players on these trades.  You have us slotted to under pay in all of these trades.  Remember, we're probably bidding against a lot more teams on these trades and would need throw in another solid player to get the other team to trade with us.  I would think we have the most leverage with the Yankees and Marlins.  The Yankees would be happy to have any of our outfielders and the Marlins would love to take a package of our young offensive prospects.  

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The Twins have a huge dearth of left-handed corner outfielders.

Don't you mean a glut?

5 hours ago, TwinsGM said:

Jamie, hate to be the bearer of bad news but I think the Twins would have to kick in more players on these trades.  You have us slotted to under pay in all of these trades.  Remember, we're probably bidding against a lot more teams on these trades and would need throw in another solid player to get the other team to trade with us.  I would think we have the most leverage with the Yankees and Marlins.  The Yankees would be happy to have any of our outfielders and the Marlins would love to take a package of our young offensive prospects.  

Both Yankees and Marlins could use a CF like Kepler.  The drop off in what is available at that position is huge after him.  That is where Kepler’s value lies.  

7 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Don't you mean a glut?

I was just going to say - a surfeit? An abundance?

Emmanuel Rodriguez is untouchable. Period. There isn't any pitcher available that would shake that tree.

It is unlikely that the Twins trade either Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis. 

The Yankees are not trading Cortes and it is unlikely that either Gallen or Woodruff are available. 

The focus of trades and numerous posts have been repetitively about the Marlins pitchers because Miami has expressed that all of their pitchers except for Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez can be acquired if the return to Miami consists of the right collection of bats. Pablo Lopez is considered more highly by national baseball writers and evaluators than any of the Twins starters. I favor Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo over Lopez due to cost, years of control, and upside.

I would rather see the Twins go into 2023 with the pitching they currently have than to see trades of prospects or signings of washed up arms. I really want to see a trade for Cabrera, which might be nuts, but am fine to watch all of Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson get an opportunity if the young Marlin cannot be acquired.

1 hour ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I was just going to say - a surfeit? An abundance?

Also, surplus. Great article, though.

Would love to see something like this happen

Great ideas Jamie !  The Cortes trade with the Yanks is too low with value for the Yanks.  The rule of thumb in acquiring young, controllable pitching is that you must overpay to some degree to win the bid.  If you add Festa to the Woodruff trade you would be at 52.5 to Woodruff's value of 51.2.  And I would make this trade.  Woodruff gives you a horse at the top of your rotation and you pay to keep him around.  He's the kind of guy you want to hand the ball for game #1 of a playoff game.  It pushes everyone else down a rung as well, deepening the staff.  I like Gallon.  But I'm just NOT parting with Lee or Lewis.  I want to build around them and Correa & Buxton.  

Tony&Rodney has been pushing for the twins to acquire Edward Cabrera from the Marlins.  Even with this Woodruff trade I would still consider engaging with the Marlins for another pitcher.  Cabrera's BTV is 14.8 (contrast that with Lopez at 38.7).  Lopez is 26 and controllable for 2023 & 2024.  Cabrera is 24 years old and controllable thru 2029.  I'd gamble on the control and possible upside of Cabrera.  I've already parted with Miranda, Ober and Festa.  Farmer and a others will cover 3B until lee or Lewis show they're ready.  I could trade Larnach 14.6 straight up for Cabrera or throw in someone like Cavaco or Sabato to sweeten the deal. 

Starting Rotation:  Woodruff, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Cabrera.  Maeda starts in long relief and as he builds up has a chance to crack the rotation.  Paddock is also out there lurking somewhere.  To cap off a tremendously successful off season I sign Andrew Chafin for the BP to deepen it even more.  I'm looking for a return to form for Lopez and a contribution from Alcala.

Lineup: 1. Arraez DH  2.Kirilloff 1B  3.Buxton CF  4.Polanco 2B  5.Correa SS  6.Gallo LF  7.Vazquez C  8.Kepler RF  9.Farmer/Gordon/Jullien 3B.

I don't know what my payroll is, but with the signing of Correa the Twins are in "win now" mode.

I Love that rotation.  I like that BP.  I'd like a little better lineup but Lewis and Lee will probably both be up sometime in 2023.  

10 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Don't you mean a glut?

We scored less than 700 runs last season and are contemplating moving bats.  I going to go with dearth.

10 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Don't you mean a glut?

Probably meant to type depth 😂

4 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I was just going to say - a surfeit? An abundance?

Plethora

I wouldn’t do a trade until something goes wrong in spring training or towards the trade deadline when it’s obvious that we need a #1 SP to go deep into the playoffs. SWR has a great chance to become a #2/3 this year.  We may not need anyone if Mahle is lights out and Paddock comes back strong. 

I was puzzled when the Marlins traded Gallen for Chisholm, and upset the Twins weren't in the conversation. He was a perfect fit for the Twins and they had the prospect capital to do it without it being too painful. Maybe the Marlins were targeting Chisholm.

IMO our rotation for 2023 is fine so I wouldn't be willing to trade anything outside of a crowded corner OF. I'd be hesitant to trade any of our top prospects before we have a chance to understand their true value.

The Twins were about average for scoring runs/game (4.30, league average 4.28) & a little above average in runs allowed/game (4.22, league average 4.28). We need to improve our offense every bit as much as our pitching. With this in mind subtracting from our offense to add a pitcher who is about the same as what we have doesn't make sense. Trading for an ace is for the most part unrealistic. I can't see Gallen, Cortes or Woodruff (maybe Woodruff, but doubt it)being available for trade. Even if any of them were available the cost would be substantial.

The Twins need to trade from their strength which is LH corner OF's like Kepler, Larnach or Kiriloff. Adding Miranda (no way would I trade Miranda) or even Arraez subtracts from our offense so what's point. We need to find a trade where one of our corner OF bats matches up with something that improves us in '23 whether it be a bat or an arm. The other option would be a trade for a SP to help beyond '23 as we have multiple SP's about to hit the FA market.   

Sorry about the double posting of my first comments,  Not sure how that happened.  Maybe the simplest trade to make was proposed by Doc Gast, a frequent poster here, on the Baseball Trade Values site:  A one for one swap of Max Kepler 7.6 in value for Frankie Montas 8.1 in value.  Montas will miss the first 3-4 weeks of the season due to some lingering shoulder issues, but is expected to be fine going forward.  With Kirilloff, Larnach, Gallo and Wallner, Max is probably getting traded.  I'd be all in on a deal straight up for Montas.  Montas would probably become our #1.  He's got great stuff.  The Yankees are reported to be willing to deal him and they have interest in Max Kepler.  A trade like this leaves Miranda's bat in the middle of the Twins lineup and doesn't move any other assets.  It also opens up opportunity for Larnach and Wallner as I commented as TonyO.  Montas, once healthy, is a pitcher that can throw 6-7 innings per start and be very effective doing it.  

No way to the Gallen trade if it includes three top prospects. Lee and Rodriguez should be off limits in any trade and the FO already traded players of Festa’s upside last year to acquire injured starters Mahle and Paddock. But I would strongly consider the Woodruff or Cortes trade for those players, especially Cortes, since the Twins have a surplus of lefty hitting outfielders. Miranda would be difficult to include, but his field position isn’t clear yet. 

22 hours ago, TwinsGM said:

Jamie, hate to be the bearer of bad news but I think the Twins would have to kick in more players on these trades.  You have us slotted to under pay in all of these trades.  Remember, we're probably bidding against a lot more teams on these trades and would need throw in another solid player to get the other team to trade with us.  I would think we have the most leverage with the Yankees and Marlins.  The Yankees would be happy to have any of our outfielders and the Marlins would love to take a package of our young offensive prospects.  

The one thing to remember about the trade value machine you like to use is that it is subjective to the person putting in the data, but does not look at how the team values the player.  For example, the trade value has Rodriguez at 14.2, and Miranda at 26.4.  Personally, I think long term Rodriguez will be a much better player than Miranda, but Miranda is MLB level and Rodriguez is A ball right now.  If a team has high expectations of Rodriguez they will not care about the value in the this machine.  When it comes to prospects, it is hard to determine how much value a team puts on them. I know you can look at national rankings, but that does not mean a whole lot if a team themselves values them base on their opinions. 

If you don't go big you might as well go home. Or in other words, if you aren't getting an Ace who would slot above Gray or Mahle then just go with what you got. The problem with going big is that it is also going to cost you big and there is no way I trade Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, Arraez, Miranda or Larnach and Kirilloff at this point. It's kind of sad when you feel that some of the prospects and young hitters that haven't proven themselves yet are more important to keep than the veterans who are playing. I wouldn't miss Kepler, Gallo or Buxton who only plays part-time anyway. Like Sano, I think he is over-rated over-hyped and could easily be replaced by someone who can play a full season and actually be available if they reach the playoffs. 

Nestor Cortes? Nestor Costes isn't going anywhere As long as he's pitching anywhere near the level he did last season, he's virtually untouchable. Montas, sure. But he's too often injured, like now again, and was awful last year when he was healthy. Why pick up more mediocrity? When German pitches regularly, he is very consistent and excellent. He could be available only 'if' Montas is healthy. Yanks aren't one to trade good pitching unless they get a LOT in return. Kepler ain't a lot. More mediocrity. 

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Frankie Montas is only a good pitcher when the Twins visit Oakland. He ranges from average to terrible everywhere else. Lou Travino was the best pitcher the Yankees got in that deal.

If the Yanks have any 'interest' in Kepler, it'll only be if the LF situation doesn't work out in the first couple of months of the season. I think Hicks will bounce back...can't be worse, plus the Yanks have Cabrera. They'd only pickup Kepler out of sheer desperation.  Montas #1? C'mon now, get real. He's inconsistent and can't stay healthy. Pegged to be the #5 starter this year, which tells you what they think of him. 

Here is what Dustin May might cost.  Pretty steep price, in my view.

More palatable, to me, would be German Marquez:

Marquez fits the definition of “3.5 WAR”…but hasn’t reached that level since 2018.  Not sure if 2022 showed a decline in performance or just a bad year, but I’d be interested in seeing how he fares outside of Colorado. He’s under contract through 2023 with a 2024 option.

Edit to add:  Marquez, unsurprisingly, has pretty marked home/road splits.  

Note 790 OPS at home, 699 OPS on the road; 1.40 WHIP at home, 1.18 WHIP at home.  Not listed but HR/9 is 1.32 at home and 1.15 on the road.

Get him out of Coors, see how he does!

Plus, maybe Max thrives in Coors like Cuddyer and Morneau before him - I don’t think anyone around here would begrudge him success.

That's a good trade possibility "Moderation."  Whether it would be Kepler for Marquez straight up or Kepler for Montas straight up BOTH trades work for the Twins because we subtract one LH hitting OF'er and add a RH pitcher capable of throwing 150-180 innings with a decent amount of effectiveness.  We have to come up with at least one and hopefully two pitchers who can hit that kind of innings pitched so we don't over stress the BP.  Ryan can do it.  Maybe Mahle or Gray.  But Marquez or Montas would certainly help.

I’m looking thought Rockies listings on MLB Trade Rumors, it seems clear that one thing the Rockies are looking for is a LH hitting OF, preferably a center fielder, so trading from the Twins’ [redundancy of? plethora of? stable of?] left handed outfielders to the Rockies makes even more sense.  To top it off, the Rox appear stretched financially, so trading Marquez’ more expensive contract for Kepler’s cheaper one works too.

The Rockies aren’t necessarily in “win now” mode, so maybe a deal would work even better with a pitching prospect or two thrown in for a current reliever?  I doubt Daniel Bard would come back, but how about adding in Tyler Kinley (reunion!) for Festa and Headrick?