milkytoast

After a whole offseason thinking about how Megill sucks, now it's spring training and I'm thinking about how Megill sucks.

I think a fair deal would be the one you suggested, but change the two option years to $30 mil. Royce gets security, The Twins get one extra year of control and it gives the Twins an option to retain him, but at a fair market price if he is a star.

You didn't talk about Jax at all. He went to Driveline too.

Average ERA last year was 3.98 which means that EVERY SINGLE PITCHER on this list is projected to be above average! Wow! Even if you look at FIP, every pitcher besides Jorge Lopez, Jax and Megill are slated to be above average.

For an article called, "What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?" you forgot to talk about what the realistic expectations for Randy Dobnak are.

Larnach and Festa for Cabrera.

Your article is titled mentioning contending, not winning the AL pennant. Our contention for the AL Central or wild card spot has very little to do with the Astros.

What do the Astros have to do with anything?

Wow. I don't understand this article, but I am happy that it exists.

18 mil for the option year seems unlikely to give much surplus value. I would do one option year at around 13 million with a second option year at that 18 mark.

I think a case could be made that including last year's $35 million, you could do this same structure minus the 10th year listed. That would make it a 9-year, $300 million contract. 300 will make Boras happy. Then considering last year's $35 mil, that is 10 years and $335 million. Bigger than Seager's! Win for everyone!

I agree the trade simulator is not a perfect tool, but it gives a good starting point to look at. And yes, the price for well-performing veteran players with multiple years of service time left is very steep! I personally wouldn't trade Lewis or Miranda for Jansen either, but that is in the realm of what it would cost. That's why more likely, it would take multiple lower-level guys to add up to that value. Idk if you have The Athletic access or not, but there was an article where different beat reporters made hypothetical offers for the Blue Jays catchers and Gleeman suggested Kepler, Balazovic and Sands and it was shot down because there wasn't anything in the package that was high enough quality. https://theathletic.com/3924479/2022/11/24/blue-jays-trade-catching/ I think if you do that trade but switch Kepler with Larnach, then that's closer to what it would take.

Teams expressed interest in taking on Pagan's contract for a minimal prospect, but it doesn't mean he has a lot of trade value. Jansen is a highly sought after player and would take a lot to trade for. This is a good resource to see how players' trade values compare. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ A fair trade would be Royce Lewis for Jansen or Jose Miranda for Jansen. They list Pagan as having 0 trade value, which is pretty close to true.

That you think the Blue Jays would be remotely interested in a Jansen/Pagan swap is baffling. hahahaha

Please god, let him be traded soon!