EGFTShaw

After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. 
What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.
Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration
One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?
Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs
Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.
Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential
When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.
Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline
When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.
A Star is Born
While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.
Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. 
One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!
What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to.
If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well.
Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching.
Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation.
For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow.
You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound.
Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff.
Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost.
Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as.
Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense.

Yesterday, we poetically delved into the romanticism and joy that accompanies the first few days of spring training. That is appropriate; optimism is the primary characteristic of the first phase of spring training. Talking with folks on Day 1, the participants make that clear.
The Players
It’s time to shake off the rust. That starts with pitchers because they take more time to build up their arm strength. Catchers join them because nobody wants to chase the ball to the backstop after every throw. Four days later, the rest of the position players join camp, because they need less than a week to find their groove. 
Except this year, most guys are way early. It’s not totally clear why. Factors include the World Baseball Classic, optimism about the team, make-or-break years, the lack of COVID, or the fact that last year's lockdown-shortened camp. 
Whatever it is, most can’t wait. This is funny because this first part of the year has a very first-week-back-to-school feel. Players are excited to see each other again. The new kids are making friends; finding a lunch table at which to sit. 
There’s excitement in the air. Goals are fresh in mind. Some are eager to show they’re healthy. Some are eager to test whether or not their offseason workouts will pay dividends on the field. At the very least, those workouts are over. Baseball is the fun part of the season. 
Coaches
The first week of school comparison also applies to coaches, trainers, management, etc. Yes, they are also excited to reconnect with each other and players. But the teachers are also sizing up their students' potential - both for greatness and for trouble. They also get a chance to see younger players whom they have only heard about in the minors. Glimpsing the future in those newcomers fires up everyone who loves the game. 
By definition, the coaches love the game; they wouldn’t have chosen their career if they didn’t. So if you think the players are excited, you can only imagine the spring in the coaching staff’s step. 
Reporters
For reporters, this is the best part of camp, too. Players are ready to talk, partly because they’re excited, but also because we haven’t worn them down with the same questions repeatedly. So this is an opportunity to interview players, transcribe the interviews, and then tuck them away to be referenced in a future story.
The Love of the Game exhilaration applies here, too. Being a beat writer for baseball is a grind, even compared to other sports beats that grind. It’s basically every day or night, for eight months, and the opportunities often require relocating. Again, nobody who isn’t obsessed with baseball subjects themselves to that, especially for what they are paid.  
Plus - I won’t lie - the days are shorter in this phase of spring training. No afternoon games, and no trips across the state. It’s easily the best and most productive time to attend as a reporter. 
Fans
It’s the best time to attend as a fan, too, at least if your goal is to have more interaction with the players than you’re likely to ever have again.
There is a path to the practice field where the players walk early each morning and back late each morning. It has barriers to separate them from fans, but the barriers are waist high, and, as mentioned, the players are generally excited. They will often stop for selfies, autographs, high 5s, etc., especially on the way back. 
Plus, batting cages and the bullpens are both somewhat viewable as well. Want to see Jhoan Duran’s velocity up close? Or see Nick Gordon working with Torii Hunter in the batting cage? There are no guarantees but you’ll see something if you peer long enough through the fences and screens.
There is one day in particular when excitement is at its peak, and the Twins announced that today. The day after position players report, the Twins have an open house, where they open up Hammond Stadium (including concessions), have some special events (especially for kids), and provide even more chances to interact with players. This year, it’s Monday, the 20th. 
But mostly any day before games start, you’ll have access you can’t quite believe - provided you show up in the morning. Timing is the biggest obstacle to all these experiences - they happen in the morning. This is by design: Florida can get pretty hot in the afternoons. 
Players are often in the fields  By 9 AM. (Some much earlier.) they’re often back by 11 or 12.  The camp can be a ghost town in the afternoon. You’ve been warned. 
Am I trying to convince you to come to spring training? Yes. Yes, I am. If you care enough to seek out Twins news on Day 1, you probably care enough to enjoy yourself. And if you are reading this because you’re excited about watching grown men play catch, then you’re going to fit right in, right here, right now. 
 

Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes.
Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen).
Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk.
Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course.
Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better.
Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience."
Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. 
The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. 
And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. 
It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear.
 

Born in Northfield, Minnesota, Caleb Thielbar calls the same state home as Thielen does. When Thielbar went to South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits were a Division II program. They transitioned to Division I during his final two seasons there. Playing in Brookings, it’s not at all surprising that the lefty went relatively overlooked, but by this point in his Major League career, the story should be equally inspiring.
Both Thielen and Thielbar beat the odds when considering how small their towns are. Detroit Lakes does boast a population of nearly 10,000 people, while Thielbar's Randolph claims less than 500. Thielen didn't pick up a football scholarship offer from Mankato until the summer following his senior year, and it took Thielbar multiple stints with the independent version of the Saints before he was discovered again.
The Milwaukee Brewers took Thielbar in the 18th round of the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. The only player drafted in that round that year to make a positive impact in the majors is Marcus Stroman, although he didn't sign, went to college at Duke and was drafted in the first round three years later as a pitcher rather than a shortstop. Given the rounds and depth brought in through the draft, Thielbar’s positioning did not at all help his chances for success.
It wasn’t until 2011 that Thielbar made his way to the Twins organization, and he didn’t make it to the big leagues for another two years after that. As a 26-year-old reliever, the lefty appeared on May 20 against the Atlanta Braves and threw two shutout innings with a trio of strikeouts. Thielbar posted a 1.76 ERA that season, but the Twins were so bad that his performance was largely overlooked.
A year later, in 2014, the strikeouts slipped and so did the overall performance. By 2015, Thielbar was out of affiliated baseball altogether. Using two strong stints with the St. Paul Saints, Thielbar provided the Twins with opportunity to scout him close to home. Boasting sub 3.00 ERA's in 2016 and 2017, he parlayed the success into minor league deals with the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves in 2018 and 2019.
Resurfacing during the 2020 covid-shortened season with Minnesota, Thielbar is showcased in a wonderful piece by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Having all but given up hope on professional baseball after Atlanta did not call him up in 2019, Thielbar decided to move on to coaching in the Division II ranks with Augustana. Conveniently for this narrative, the South Dakota school is nicknamed the Vikings, and they play in the same conference as Thielen’s Mavericks. Fortunately for the Twins, Brad Steil and the team's pro scouts saw his numbers and improved "stuff" and convinced Thielbar to give it one more try. 
Despite having been away from the game for a time, Thielbar posted a 2.25 ERA across 20 innings on a team that hosted a home playoff series. He was still a crafty lefty, but now he brought a new strikeout sprinkle to his game and tallied a career best 9.9 K/9. Fast forward to where we are now, and Thielbar enters 2023 with a career-high $2.4 million salary, and being able to lay claim as one of baseball’s most underrated relievers. For Rocco Baldelli, Thielbar will be one of just two assumed lefties in the pen. Alongside second-year arm Jovani Moran, Thielbar can be expected to provide plenty of high-leverage innings. His 2.42 FIP tells a better story of his 2022 than the 3.49 ERA, and it’s really the career best 12.1 K/9 that deserves excitement. Having dropped his walk rate each of the past two years, and continuing to be stingy with homers, Thielbar is as good of a weapon as Minnesota has in the pen.
Although Major League Baseball rules now mandate a pitcher must face three batters, and Thielbar is better against lefties, he is relatively matchup proof. Last season he held right-handed hitters to a .226 average as opposed to .225 for lefties. Righties did get him for a .634 OPS as opposed to just .575 against lefties, but he doesn’t strike fear in a manager when needing to get big outs.
For a bullpen that has a fireballer like Jhoan Duran at the back, it’s incredible that someone like Thielbar can bring such a successful different look. Thielbar will never throw triple-digits, and his 92.9 mph average last season was a career-best. Still, generating soft contact along with swings and misses is something he’s done by knowing exactly what he brings to the table.
Among Minnesota’s arbitration decisions this winter, Thielbar had to be one of the easiest. He’s now a 36-year-old, and it’s been a decade since he debuted. The journey to get here was an interesting one, but he’s now a key cog for the Twins bullpen in 2023.
It’s improbable we see Thielbar named to an All-Star team or given national recognition, but make no mistake, Thielbar is every bit the success story that the Vikings have experienced with Adam Thielen. Sometimes the hometown hero is Joe Mauer, Paul Molitor, or Dave Winfield. Other times, it’s the grinder that has to do everything it takes in order to make their own opportunities.

Throughout the winter, fans will react differently to any transaction the club makes, from significant acquisitions to prospects left off the 40-man roster. Teams can trade away fan-favorite players or sign free agents to multi-million dollar deals. There are no guarantees in baseball, and the Twins front office has left themselves open to praise or criticism depending on the long-term outcome of these moves. On paper, the Twins have improved and added depth throughout the roster, which projects to have the team back in playoff contention. 
7. Trading Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo
According to Baseball Reference, Urshela provided the fourth-most WAR on the team in 2022. One of the keys to his value was that he tied Luis Arraez for the team lead with 144 games played. Minnesota traded him to the Angels for Alejandro Hidalgo, a 19-year-old pitcher with a career 4.64 ERA in 17 appearances. Urshela is in his last arbitration season, and the Twins were ready to give Jose Miranda the starting job at third base. It's at the bottom of the list because the trade return was minimal.
6. Signing Joey Gallo to a 1-year, $11 million deal
The Twins front office thinks Gallo can return to his previous form, but it will take time to know if signing him was the correct decision. Last season, Gallo hit just .160/.280/.357 (.638) with 19 home runs and 163 strikeouts in 126 games. He was an All-Star in 2021, leading the AL with 111 walks while hitting 38 home runs. Gallo is a multi-time All-Star and has won two Gold Gloves, but there is no guarantee he will return to that level in 2023. 
5. Trading Steven Cruz and Evan Sisk for Michael A. Taylor
Many thought the Twins were in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder on the free agent market. The Twins decided to go in a different direction and traded for one of baseball's best outfield defenders. On paper, it seems like a solid plan to use Taylor for games when Buxton is not available to play in the field. He can bat at the bottom of the line-up and help the pitching staff on the defensive side. This move has the potential to be a sneaky-good move for the Twins, especially if it helps Buxton play over 100 games. 
4. Trading Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer
Adding Farmer helped the Twins establish a floor for their middle infield this winter. If Correa signed elsewhere, Farmer would likely take over the starting shortstop role until Royce Lewis returned in the second half. Instead, Farmer can shift to a utility role that suits his skill set. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged over 145 games per season while playing every infield position. He's not a player to get excited about, but fans will come to appreciate what he adds to the roster. 
3. Trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio
It was tough for the front office to trade away Luis Arraez, a fan favorite, but the return helps the team in the short- and long term. Lopez adds depth to the starting rotation, especially with injury concerns tied to multiple arms. Arraez's 2022 season showcased his peak value, but there is little upside in a first baseman with little to no power. The Twins also received two prospects in the deal, including one that already ranks in the team's top 10 prospects. Minnesota needs Lopez to be the pitcher he was in 2022, and it will be a bonus if either prospect is a regular at the big-league level.
2. Signing Christian Vazquez to a 3-year, $30 million deal
The Twins had to improve behind the plate, and Vazquez should help to solidify one of baseball's most important positions. He's been on multiple World Series teams and has caught over 1,900 innings over the last two seasons. Minnesota will be relying on some young pitchers in the coming years, and Vazquez can be a veteran presence to help usher them into their big-league careers. Adding Vazquez was a move the Twins had to make, and that's why it ranks so high on this list. 
1. Signing Carlos Correa to a 6-year, $200 million deal
No other transaction will define the Twins franchise more over the next decade than signing Correa... the second time. He is one of baseball's best two-way players and has the rare ability to impact nearly all facets of the game. Minnesota saw what he provided on and off the field, so they were eager for him to return, even with questions about his ankle. Fans may have yet to fully embrace Correa because it looked like his Twins tenure would be short-lived. Now, there is a chance he will end his career in Minnesota, and that's something for fans to enjoy. 
How would you rank this winter's moves? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 
 

Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. 
As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain.
These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle.
Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals.
1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams?
Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents.
In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings.
Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. 
The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. 
Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason.
2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void?
There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost.
You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. 
If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better.
To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 
3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential?
Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart.
He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt.
Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric.
Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can.
4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively?
The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. 
Now he needs to define his defensive future.
If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route.
Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors.
But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves  at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit.
5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out?
Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21?
The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end.
Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties.
Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way.

Reviewing the Twins offseason up to this point after a flurry of January activity, some notable trends and focal points emerge. In sizing up the front office's moves this winter, it strikes me that there was a clear intent to address six key areas that factored into last year's fade, starting with the biggest one: 
Better physical outcomes with a new head trainer.
One of the first moves the Twins made this offseason was replacing head athletic trainer Michael Salazar with Nick Paparesta, a reputed leader in the field who'd spent the past 12 years in Oakland with the A's.
It was a fitting top priority for the front office coming off a season that was completely wrecked by injuries, with unending recovery timelines and frustrating setbacks decimating the roster. The Twins were not a flawless team, as we'll cover below, but the level of physical attrition and number of days lost gave them no legitimate chance to hang on.
To a large extent, injuries are uncontrollable. Training staffs tend to become scapegoats in circumstances where sheer bad luck is the prime culprit. But that's the nature of the beast, and as bad as things got last year, it can't hurt to bring in a fresh – yet seasoned – perspective.
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Better pitching depth from the start.
The pitching staff was definitely hurt by injuries last year, but not to the same degree as the lineup. No, the problem with the Twins' pitching staff last year was more foundational: On Opening Day, they had Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as members of the starting rotation. On Opening Day, they had Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, and Josh Winder – owner of zero major-league innings – all as part of the bullpen. 
This year the Twins will be much more structurally sound from the start on the pitching side. The return of Kenta Maeda, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Pablo López, have surrounded Sonny Gray with a bevy of proven veterans. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who both pitched very well last year, push the rotation to six deep, while Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson have both proven ready to step in. Randy Dobnak is a wild card. 
On the bullpen side, Jhoan Durán emerged as a force last year while Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax are both coming off outstanding seasons. Jorge López, if he returns to form, can give the Twins an unparalleled 1-2 punch alongside Durán in the late innings. Jorge Alcalá is back after missing almost all of last year, joining middle-relief options like Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe. Your mileage may vary on Emilio Pagán but he's a high-upside piece they don't need to rely on.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another addition on the relief side (Michael Fulmer, come on down?), but as things stand, the 2023 Twins are in a much better position on pitching stability. 
Dynamic contingencies and depth in the position player corps.
If you want to stir up some bad memories, I've got a recommendation to fulfill your sadistic urge: go back and pull up a random Twins starting lineup from last August or September. The club's utterly ravaged position-player corps regularly left Rocco Baldelli submitting sad lineups with little hope to compete. 
Nick Gordon and Gio Urshela trading off at cleanup. Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting against lefties. Gilberto Celestino hitting fifth or sixth, repeatedly. It was ugly, and something none of us want to experience again. The front office is doing everything it realistically can to prevent it.
Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor are borderline starting-caliber players and top-shelf backups. They both provide experience, flexibility, and defensive prowess to help keep things chugging along in a variety of injury scenarios. The Twins are stacked with options in the corners and that's before you account for their prospects nearing readiness. 
Presently, it's kind of hard to see how someone like Gordon or Trevor Larnach is even going to find his way to steady at-bats. Things will change, as we know, but the Twins are well prepared for that eventuality. Even with their 2022 leader in plate appearances gone, Minnesota is very strong on depth across the board. 
Improved hitting against left-handed pitchers.
Southpaws were a perpetual pain point for the Twins last year, holding the team to a .240/.310/.391 overall slash line while regularly shutting down poorly optimized lineups. This owed partially to injuries, especially later on, but was also a result of poor planning. Kyle Garlick can mash lefties and is a nice piece to have on hand, but you don't want to be primarily dependent on him in that role as they were last year. 
This year, Garlick will likely open in Triple-A as ready-made depth for the same role. Meanwhile, the big-league club is significantly more balanced on the bench. Taylor could hardly be described as a "lefty masher" but he's solid against them, and should reduce the need for lefty-hitting outfielders to start against same-siders.
The big add here is Farmer, whose defensive flexibility will allow him to plug in all over and start against almost all left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .288/.345/.492 career slash line (including .309/.380/.568 last year).
Run prevention via defensive improvements.
You might feel the Twins were not emphatic or aggressive enough in their approach to upgrading a pitching staff that ranked 14th in runs allowed and remains plagued by question marks. You'd have a fair point.
But the name of the game isn't pitching well – it's preventing runs. While performance on the mound obviously plays a major role, defense is also a big factor in this equation. The Twins weren't necessarily bad in this area last year, ranking 12th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved thanks in large part to CF/RF, but they could stand to get better. 
In 2023, they're poised to field one of the best defensive units in the league. Buxton and Correa return as elite up-the-middle defenders, and are joined by glove-first catcher Christian Vázquez. Newcomer Joey Gallo adds a standout fielder to the corner mix. Max Kepler provides another top-shelf glove if he sticks around, and if he goes, Larnach's a very good defender in his own right. 
Alex Kirilloff is a superior first baseman to Luis Arraez (Gold Glove hub-bub aside), and we won't see Arraez's sub-par defense at second or third, which is a benefit through this lens. 
Even beyond the starting lineup, we find defensive strength in the Twins' depth. Taylor is a great center fielder whose range is elite in the outfield corners. Farmer is a capable shortstop who excels at the infield corners. Jeffers is a glove-first backup to a glove-first starter. 
 
 
 
Greater catching stability.
Speaking of Jeffers and Vázquez, the presence of these two puts the Twins in a much better position behind the plate than they were last year, when Minnesota backstops collectively posted a .629 OPS and just 1.8 fWAR. 
Dealing away Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt left the Twins woefully short on high-level catching depth. When Jeffers went down, they were forced to lean on Gary Sánchez as a starter before turning over the reins to no-hit veteran Sandy León after grabbing him from Cleveland's Triple-A club. 
Bringing in Vázquez makes a profound difference in this regard, giving the Twins two starting-caliber catchers to buttress against an injury to either. The addition of Tony Wolters on a minor-league deal also supplies the Twins with some experienced depth at Triple-A; Wolters has played more than 400 games in the majors, albeit only 16 since 2020.
Additions like Vázquez and Wolters might not be the most exciting, but like many of the other moves mentioned above, they had strategic underpinnings geared toward shoring up the weaknesses that brought down the 2022 Twins. 

Plenty is made of the disadvantages that a market like the Twin Cities faces in comparison to glamorous coastal destinations like San Francisco and New York. For pro athletes, those locations tend to offer more money, more marketing opportunities, and more prestige, for starters.
But there are also distinct advantages to a quaint midwestern locale like Minnesota – ones that might resonate and hold more influence with specific players, and can (as we've seen) sway player pursuits in a meaningful way. 
Specifically: there's a certain coldness to many of the big markets and all they entail.
In the follow-up of Carlos Correa's stunning pivot to sign with the Twins after cutting off negotiations with the Mets, it became clear that the shortstop kept Minnesota on his radar – and ultimately directed his agent Scott Boras to go and get something done – because of how he felt treated by them throughout the past 12 months, and especially through this latest free-agency episode.
The Twins could have been compelled to move on at some point and cease making contact, during a process where they were spurned twice for bigger offers in bigger markets. But Correa expressed appreciation for Derek Falvey and Twins reps continually checking in to see how he was doing, as a person – and never wavering in their desire to hammer out a deal with the player, if practical.
In a world of big egos and high-stakes decisions, you don't always find this type of genuine care and concern. Correa has said as much. Upon signing, he called the Twins his "extended family." He spoke of how the positive experiences his actual family had in Minneapolis last year influenced his openness to a reunion. He beamed that his son would "grow up Minnesota Nice."
Yeah, these are the kinds of things people say when they sign new contracts, I get that. But when you look at the way this all played out, it's difficult to ignore the validity behind these seemingly sappy sentiments. 
Clearly Correa was very eager and excited to sign in New York. He waited out frustrating negotiations and haggling for weeks. But as he watched the infinitely rich Steve Cohen and his team renege on a deal they'd agreed to, railroading Correa with perceived leverage as they cut the guarantee in half and stipulated annual physicals on the back end ... suddenly the appeal of an organization that's shown him nothing but warmth and good faith looked all the more welcoming by comparison.
It was a frustrating process, said Boras. “But in the end, seeing how happy he was and how excited the Twins are, maybe this was the way it was meant to be all along.’’ 
Looking back one year earlier, we can also see how the "Minnesota Nice" factor played a role in the Twins locking up their other franchise centerpiece to a highly favorable deal.
It's easy to forget now, but Byron Buxton's contract talks with the Twins once looked as imperiled as Correa's. In another very realistic scenario, Buxton could've been alongside the shortstop peddling his services as a free agent this offseason.
But just ahead of the MLB shutdown last November, Buxton and the Twins reached agreement on an extension that could only be described as extremely team-friendly. There's little doubt he would be in line to make significantly more in guaranteed money this offseason than the $100 million he got from the Twins in an incentive-laden seven-year deal signed back in November of 2021. A $15 million annual base for a player of Buck's caliber is still a little hard to conceive.
Make no mistake: Buxton's willingness to sign this contract was an extraordinary showing of loyalty. That level of loyalty is only earned through trust and affinity toward an organization that's done right by him. The Twins deserve credit for keeping that bond intact through a regime change and then some.
This is speculation, but I believe another aspect of Minnesota's low-key culture that appeals to Buxton, as an oft-injured player who takes it pretty hard, is the relatively lesser scrutiny and sensationalized media commentary compared to large markets. 
Not to say there aren't a bunch of obnoxious Twins fans always making their little quips and barbs about Buxton's tendency to get hurt – they annoy the crap out of me – but what he faces here is nothing compared to the onslaught of rancor he'd face in LA or New York for having the gall to be frequently unavailable. 
I think he recognizes that and it's part of what makes him comfortable in this setting. Buxton gives Joe Mauer a run for his money when it comes to talent/ego ratio – a perfect successor in the soft-spoken superstar lineage. Is it a coincidence neither was eager to leave?
Sometimes I get annoyed with how much the Twins franchise embodies the "Minnesota Nice" credo to an almost nauseating degree. From the decades of understated yet ultra-humane leadership under Terry Ryan, to the legend of an "oh-shucks" hometown Hall of Famer, right down to the two friendly chaps shakings hands in their logo, the Twins can be comically on-script for their locale.
But then, I wouldn't have it any other way. The Twins don't have many built-in advantages compared to larger markets when it comes to attracting talent and outpacing the field. So they've sought to turn treating people the right way into a differentiator, and – sad as it might be as a general statement – it seems to have become one. 
Hard to argue with that strategy.
 

When watching a game last year and seeing Carlos Correa make throws, it was hard not to be impressed at the sheer velocity he put behind the baseball. Sometimes it is noticeable as to how quick a guy transitions the ball from glove to hand, while others look as though a rocket exploded from their fist. Correa definitely seemed to be more of the latter, but there is still room for growth.
Recently Statcast began measuring arm strength across the league as a whole. Correa is well behind leading shortstop O’Neill Cruz, and checks in 9th, behind division rival Javier Baez. His 88.1 mph average is certainly impressive, but likely seems even greater after watching the likes of Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon field the position.

Beyond arm strength, Correa has always been seen as a solid defender. Maybe not to the level previous Minnesota infielder Andrelton Simmons was believed to be in his prime, but Correa is no slouch. The winner of both a Gold and Platinum Glove, Correa has previously been recognized with personal accolades.
Analytically, 2022 was not a great year however. In more than 1,100 innings Correa posted just three defensive runs saved for Minnesota. That represents the lowest tally of his career and is a far cry from the 20 DRS he put up a year prior. Statcast mimicked that sentiment as Correa graded out with a -3 outs above average tally, and a -2 runs above average total in 2022. Defensive metrics are often difficult to quantify even on a year-over-year sample, but get increasingly more difficult in small samples.
Looking to further assess the deficiencies faced from Correa last year, it makes sense to understand where Statcast graded him on a directional basis. Charging the ball, Correa was among the best in the game. Getting strong jumps and being able to throw across the diamond on the move is a definite asset for him. Where things went wrong was in having to cover towards second base.
 

Infield alignment will be an interesting factor in looking at success rates in 2023 and beyond. The shift being banned now limits the positioning of fielders. Correa was learning how to play alongside Polanco for the first time last season, and Minnesota already was aware that their failed shortstop had limitations defensive. When putting Luis Arraez at second base, things take an even further step backwards. Correa needing to control the hole and get to balls behind second base stretches him relatively thin.
It’s certainly not as though Correa hasn’t performed at a high level in the field before, and there is no reason to think he can’t again. At his introductory press conference last spring Correa talked about acclimating with Polanco. He had played alongside Jose Altuve for years, and understood what Alex Bregman brought on the other side. Even if Minnesota began working through things as a unit last year, there is still a substantial growing process.
This season Rocco Baldelli will likely have Jose Miranda at the hot corner significantly more often, and Correa will continue to gel with Polanco. As the three adapt to rule changes that will change their positioning, chemistry between the group will also continue to develop on and off the field. Minnesota was 12th in baseball by defensive runs saved last year, but virtually all of that production came from the outfield. If they can be better on the dirt, there are plenty more games for them to win.
Now entrenched as their starting shortstop for the better part of the next decade, this is Correa’s infield to quarterback. He has the leadership abilities to make that work, but we have also seen the talent that can help raise the water level for everyone else as well.

With Carlos Correa in the fold, the discourse of Twins fandom has turned to possible rotation upgrades. There has been rumored interest in Pablo López and the Marlins as a possible trade partner. Fair enough. López, however, doesn’t really check the cost-benefit box for the Twins. Coming off a career-best season, he accumulated 2.8 fWAR in 2022. A free agent in 2025, he doesn’t clear the Sonny Gray (2.4 fWAR in 2022) echelon of starting pitching candidates with enough conviction. Pass, especially if it would take a package including Max Kepler or Luis Arraez and more to acquire him. 
I would assert the following guidelines in working toward a trade for starting pitching:
They have to be clearly better than Sonny Gray (3.5-4.5 fWAR ideally), OR There has to be some projectability left. Edward Cabrera is a good example of the latter qualifier (25 K%, 24 years old, and not a free agent until 2029) With those criteria in mind, here are a few ‘less talked about’ starting pitching trade candidates for the Twins to pursue. For each, I’ll attempt to answer ‘what’s the appeal’? and ‘what’s the deal’? I leveraged ‘Baseball Trade Values’ to find approximate value equivalency for each trade. As with any hypothetical trade scenario, they’re meant to outline potential cost, as opposed to specific names teams might target, because, what do I know? 
Zac Gallen
What’s the Appeal?
The Diamondbacks would maximize Gallen’s value by trading him now. In 2022, he accumulated 4.3 fWAR (14th in baseball) from 180 innings after accumulating 4.4 fWAR in his previous 270ish innings spread over three seasons. Gallen was misery for hitters last season, sporting a 26.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, and 111.7 stuff+. Gallen is under team control for three more seasons, so the cost would be breathtaking. The Diamondbacks aren’t in a position to win a loaded NL West division and have some of the most elite prospect talent in baseball. Trading with the Twins allows them to continue to load up for 2024 and beyond.
What’s the Deal?
The Twins acquire RHP Zac Gallen from the Diamondbacks for SS Brooks Lee, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, and RHP David Festa
Verdict?
Too rich for me.
Nestor Cortes
What’s the Appeal?
Cortes was one of the feel-good stories in baseball in 2022. After a promising 2021, he exploded last season, amassing 3.6 fWAR with a 26.6 K% and a stingy 6.2 BB%. Cortes isn’t a free agent until 2026, so he would be expensive, but the Yankees and Twins are a good match to trade. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Domingo Germán, and Luis Severino in the rotation mix, with more options close to the major-league level. Cortes might strike the balance between adding real quality to the rotation, at a price the Twins can stomach.
What’s the Deal?
The Twins acquire LHP Nestor Cortes from the Yankees for OF Max Kepler, OF Matt Wallner, and RHP Josh Winder
Verdict?
I would accept this trade. The Twins have a huge dearth of left-handed corner outfielders. This trade gives the Yankees a defensively strong starting outfielder, an additional outfielder for the future who can also fill in at DH, and a powerful arm who hasn’t yet clicked in Minnesota.
Brandon Woodruff
What’s the Appeal?
Simply put, a dominant track record. Over the last four seasons, Woodruff has averaged 3.4 fWAR. While Woodruff isn’t a free agent until 2025, we know that the Brewers are not opposed to cashing in on or maximizing value. In 2022, Woodruff struck out over 30% of batters faced while maintaining a 6.8 BB%. At his best, he’s dominant and would immediately be the Twins best starting pitcher.
What’s the Deal?
The Twins acquire RHP Brandon Woodruff for 3B José Miranda, and RHP Bailey Ober
Verdict?
This deal is more a reflection of cost than a possibility. We all know Assistant General Manager Carlos Correa would immediately veto a trade of José Miranda. This situation simply bumped Ober, (who has struggled to remain healthy) from the bottom of the Twins' rotation and substituted Woodruff at the top. This also sees Brooks Lee as the Twins' long-term third baseman, debuting in 2023, with Miranda as more of a first base or DH option.
Honorable Mentions
I put the topic of pitching trade candidates on twitter and, as usual, Twins Daily readership came through in style. Other candidates that I didn’t include in-depth either as they had been recently written about, OR the trade fit wasn’t as obvious. They are, however, worth mentioning: Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Logan Gilbert, Chris Sale, and Frankie Montas. The list goes on. It’s worth widening the lens when considering Twins trade targets. Thinking back to the Rangers/Yankees double trade last season, it feels likely they pursue a similarly creative path to upgrade the high-end talent on the roster.
Ultimately, I’m in favor of the 3.5 fWAR threshold for starting pitching acquisitions. Given the prices, I think the Twins are unlikely to be, as it would involve parting with a close-to-the-majors prospect they see as part of their core, or MLB-level pieces they view as indispensable. Time will tell.
Who would you like the Twins to trade for? Who are you willing to part with and who is off limits? Join the discussion and leave your thoughts in the chat.
 
 
 

It’s easy to say that Carlos Correa fell onto the Twins’ laps, not once, but twice. But it’s worth examining the many roster developments that led to the club being able to have an opening on their lap to begin with. From dealing with a revolving door of stopgap shortstops, to injuries that dimmed the long-term outlook of the position and the creation of financial flexibility through trades and early extensions -- that long road led to this franchise-altering move.
It’s the butterfly effect. If things had gone differently to the slightest degree, who knows if Correa and his family wind up in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, where the star shortstop signed a mega deal that will keep him in the fold for at least six more years. 
Each of the six seasons that led to Correa’s newly-signed contract followed a similar pattern with minor variations throughout. Finally, the front office’s efforts to create that financial flexibility aligned with the club’s needs and the availability of a star player. 
Let’s take a look at all the action (or inaction) that led to the Twins landing another franchise cornerstone. 
2017
While Derek Falvey and Thad Levine officially took over as the heads of the Twins’ baseball operations department in the fall of 2016, this season was almost like a barometer for them. Instead of starting their tenures with a bang in free agency or via trade, they decided to mostly stand pat with minor or mostly-inconsequential moves.
They also remained relatively quiet at the trade deadline. Maybe that’s due to a lack of confidence that an over-achieving team could make a serious run in the postseason, or maybe they genuinely didn’t like any of the offers they were getting for players like Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton , etc.
The team miraculously made the playoffs but was taken down by the mighty New York Yankees yet again in a one-game play-in wild card game. While discouraged by how the season ended, spirits remained high and fans clamored for free agent reinforcements heading into the off-season. 
2018
Again, the Twins’ front office decided to wait out the free agent market, signing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to cheaper, low-commitment deals. Then, in spring training, Jorge Polanco tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended for the first half of the season. It’s a big blow to the team, as Polanco’s numbers in the second half of 2017 throttled the team to contention (.870 OPS, 130 wRC+).
Falvey and Levine decided to hold back. They didn’t overreact by acquiring a long-term replacement, despite the fan outcry. Instead, the team rolled with a combination of Ehire Adrianza and Gregorio Petit (remember him?) until Polanco could return in July. Sadly, the team took a major step back from a record standpoint.
Falvey and Levine finally got to see some action at the trade deadline, but not in the way many Twins’ fans would have hoped for. They traded away popular players such as Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in an effort to acquire current-day contributors such as Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino . 
2019
Once again, the Twins waited out the free agent market, establishing a pattern that they follow to this day. Instead, they focused their attention on locking up their young talent to team-friendly extensions. This included Polanco, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano , who each landed multi-year deals that included team options at the end of the contracts.
When the calendar flipped to 2019, they signed veteran power hitter Nelson Cruz to a modest one-year contract with a club option for the 2020 season. Besides that, they once again mostly took a back seat in free agency.
Polanco provided excellent value at shortstop and even made his first All Star game appearance as the starter for the American League. However, he started leaking oil from a defensive standpoint in the second half of the season. Perhaps it was due to lingering injuries in his surgically-repaired ankle, but this was when it started to become clear that he probably was not going to be a long-term option at shortstop. 
2020
This off-season was defined by one move that they made, and a few notable ones that they held off on. Sure, their noted interest in Zach Wheeler fell short when he signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The club would certainly have had to pay far more to get him in a Twins uniform, but still, that contract looks rather enticing at the moment.
Falvey and Levine also chose to hold back on a pursuit of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, who were popular names on Twins’ Twitter due to their availability as well as the club’s need for established arms. That decision to focus elsewhere proved to be wise, as Keuchel hit a wall in the second year of his eventual contract, and Kimbrel has been inconsistent.
The Twins chose to instead wait and sign third baseman Josh Donaldson when his market didn’t develop as well as he hoped. The team went on to win the division but were once again swept from postseason play. The dagger ends up being a defensive error by Polanco at short, leading the team to fully transition him out of the shortstop position. 
2021
The club made it clear that a new starting shortstop is the first item on their off-season shopping list. At one point, it looked like a three-horse race between free agents Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius . They chose a one-year deal for Simmons, as not to block the heir apparent, Royce Lewis . Their top prospect, however, tore his ACL and had to sit out for the whole 2021 season, dimming the long-term outlook at the position. Simmons had a terrible season, and his tenure as a Twin is over after one year, just as planned. 
2022
The Twins shipped Donaldson to the Yankees in an effort to unload a now-undesirable contract. Meanwhile, Correa remained unsigned coming out of the MLB lockout and the Twins still had an opening at short. In a move that took everyone by surprise, the Twins landed him on essentially a one-year deal with protections in case he gets injured. Once again, they waited out the market and this time the Twins got their biggest prize yet.
Later on, Lewis re-tears his ACL in May, and Austin Martin starts getting more time at other positions due to doubts he can handle the shortstop position. The long-term outlook of the position is once again doubtful.
At the culmination of the 2022 campaign, Correa opted out of his contract as expected. The Twins are left with a hole at shortstop, but now they have something they’ve worked to create for the better part of six years – financial flexibility. They are not bogged down by the contracts of yesteryear, and their team consists of young talent and older veterans that signed early extensions.
Yet again, they wait out the market instead of springing for high-end players such as Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts . When Correa’s deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets fell through, that flexibility and patience led them to this tenure-defining transaction. 

Most times teams find themselves working to find common ground with arbitration-eligible players. When a player reaches arbitration, their salary is determined through a statistically-weighted process that incrementally pushes their value up alongside peers of similar production.
This year, the Twins offered arbitration to eight players. That number was larger, but some players were non-tendered and the Twins traded Gio Urshela. In acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota added an additional player they needed to negotiate with.
None of the players that Minnesota needed to come to agreements with looked like there would be much gray area. Certainly, a few were extension candidates (and still could be). Going through them individually, you can see what the Twins ultimately signed them for, and what MLB Trade Rumors (in parentheses) projected them at going into the offseason.
Tyler Mahle $7.5M ($7.2M) Source
Acquired from the Reds last year at the trade deadline for Spencer Steer, Steven Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Mahle could have been an extension candidate. He is entering the final year of team control and the Twins see him with substantial upside. Those talks can still take place.
Kyle Farmer $5.585M ($5.9M) Source
After dealing Urshela to the Angels, Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds for Casey Legumina. He may have been the Opening Day shortstop had Carlos Correa not be re-signed. Now he is likely to get playing time at all four infield positions as well as providing the team with an emergency catcher. 
Luis Arraez ($5M) - Numbers Exchanged Source
The Twins filed more than one million lower than Arraez. He has continually been involved in trade talks and there is some time for the two sides to come to an agreement, or potentially reach an extension.
Emilio Pagan $3.5M ($3.7M) Source
There is no denying 2022 was a tumultuous season for Pagan. Brought in to close games as Taylor Rogers' replacement, he cost Minnesota plenty and was knocked down to low-leverage situations. He remained on the roster all year largely due to his stuff, and down the stretch he made changes that had him looking like a potential asset again. It will take a significant trust factor for fans to believe in him again, but cutting bait this offseason would have looked odd.
Jorge Lopez $3.525M ($3.7M) Source
Acquired from the Orioles at the deadline for Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas, the Twins went after Baltimore’s All-Star closer. He struggled in Minnesota but tweaks back to his former repertoire could bode well for a return to high-leverage. Lopez has another year of arbitration eligibility for 2024 as well.
Caleb Thielbar $2.4M ($2.4M) Source
A late bloomer that has been nothing but incredible as a pen lefty for Minnesota, Thielbar was always a lock to be retained. Like Lopez, he has another year of arbitration eligibility as well.
Chris Paddack $2.4M ($2.4M) Source
Another potential extension candidate, Paddack was the prize of the trade that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres. His injury history was known, and he’s now recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will be back at some point this year, but a Michael Pineda type deal could still make sense.
Jorge Alcala $790K ($800K) Source
Limited due to injury last season, the hope is that Alcala will factor in as a high-leverage arm for Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen.
With the deals cemented today, the Twins payroll for 2023 has crossed the $140 million threshold and could be continued to rise. They came in roughly at $150 million a season ago, and there is no way Correa wanted to join a team that wouldn’t push the envelope. There is still work to be done with this roster, and adding an additional pitcher and an outfielder remain key needs.
Derek Falvey has noted that Minnesota will remain engaged up to and beyond the time they embark on Fort Myers, and as we have seen in recent seasons, there is no reason to believe they are done until Opening Day hits.

As reported this morning by Jeff Passan, the Minnesota Twins have officially agreed to terms with Carlos Correa. No, it’s not the $300+ million deal that the San Francisco Giants or New York Mets initially agreed to, but it is the largest contract this franchise has ever handed out to a free agent. Correa is locked in at six years and $200 million with a no-trade clause and no opt-outs through his age-33 season. The deal includes vesting options for years seven through ten, which could bring the total value to $270 million.
The negotiations over the past several weeks have been an absolute whirlwind. From the time the New York Mets expressed concern over Correas health, through weeks of negotiations decreasing the guaranteed money, Minnesota remained persistent. Their efforts finally paid off Monday night when Correa's agent Scott Boras ended conversations with the Mets.
Rocco Baldelli now has a significant amount of certainty regarding his infield on Opening Day. While Royce Lewis remains out for at least the first half of the year, Correa will play shortstop into the foreseeable future. Jorge Polanco is locked in as the starting second baseman, and Minnesota wants Jose Miranda to play the hot corner. It’s conceivable that Joey Gallo could factor in at first base, or it could be a combination of Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff. Either way, only the long-term replacement of Miguel Sano is truly up in the air.
For Minnesota, the revolving door at shortstop is over. Yes, they acquired Kyle Farmer to set a baseline this offseason, but he’ll now be pushed to more of a utility role. Correa starts at short for the second straight Opening Day. No Minnesota shortstop has made three consecutive Opening Day starts since Cristian Guzman last did so in 2004. That level of fluctuation has never been a good thing at such a premium position.
Last year Correa showed an immeasurable amount of leadership and production in the clubhouse. His 4.4 fWAR led the team, and Steamer projections have him coming in at 4.9 fWAR for 2023. Still entering his prime, there is no reason why Minnesota can’t see Correa replicating the 6.0 fWAR season he previously put up with the Houston Astros or potentially pushing the bar even further and winning an MVP.
The clubhouse has to be elated to get such a rare monumental talent back for the long haul. Polanco, Arraez, and Miranda all found themselves on FaceTime with Correa during the Twins jersey reveal at Mall of America, and it’s clear this group is more than excited to have him still on their team. Outfielder Byron Buxton took to Twitter to show his emotions as well.
For the rest of the roster, there is a bit of fallout to deal with. Correa, as mentioned, likely pushes Farmer to a utility role. Unfortunately, that impacts Nick Gordon the most. He could factor in as an extra outfielder, but the bat of Kyle Garlick could be a bigger draw. On the infield, it’s both Lewis and Brooks Lee that see a bit of an adjustment. Lee has yet to debut and now may have the luxury of more time to develop. Lewis has plenty of runway to clear before his health is restored, but he has positional flexibility already built-in with his athleticism. It remains to be seen what the Twins will do on the trade market. Their outfield seems packed, and now there are some assets on the infield that competitors could covet in trade. At this point, Minnesota is better off having Correa in their clubhouse, and they can shuffle the pieces as they need to when the time comes.

Carlos Correa's wild offseason journey has led to agreements with both the Giants and Mets that fell through over concerns about his physical. Now, it has led him back to where he started. 
This time last year, Correa was one of the top names on the free agent market, so much so that he reportedly turned down a 10-year, $270M offer. However, he had to wait out MLB’s lockout, which is when he switched agents to Scott Boras. The market for superstars was less robust when the lockout ended in early March. So, he opted to sign a three-year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $35.1M per year, but the contract also allowed him to opt out after each of the first two years.
That agreement couldn’t have worked out better for both parties. Correa thrived offensively and defensively, becoming the Twins MVP and earning rave reviews for his leadership and mentorship. He opted out of his contract, again positioned as one of the top free agents available. 
But the usually thrifty Twins declared their intention to pursue him, eventually offering a 10-year $285M contract. Alas, that appeared to be nowhere near enough. Correa agreed to a deal with the San Francisco Giants for 13 years and $350M, but that deal fell apart a week later when the Giants expressed concerns about a plate in Correa’s right leg from a 2014 injury. 
It didn’t take long for Correa to find another suitor. The same night, he agreed to a 12-year deal with New York Mets' owner Steve Cohen for $315M. However, shortly thereafter, the Mets had a similar concern, jeopardizing that deal.
Correa and the Mets worked on resolving that concern for more than two weeks, with varying levels of optimism that a deal would get done. Thursday night, that optimism was shaken when Jon Heyman revealed that Boras had engaged with at least one other team. The talks stalled when the two sides could not agree on language protecting the Mets if Correa’s career or production were cut short due to the old injury. Lenient terms on a team opt-out midway through a 12-year deal can quickly turn a guaranteed contract into a not-so-guaranteed contract.
Enter the Twins. They had re-engaged with a similar contract to the one they previously offered, though the guaranteed amount is unclear. Also, while Correa's old injury surely could provide some concerns, they had the advantage of having already observed Correa and his right leg up close for the last year. Their offer was less dependent on a physical, a key component Boras needed before walking away from the Mets’ offer. 
It was unclear to the Twins whether they were truly a serious contender or were being used as leverage for Boras against the Mets. Correa may have enjoyed his time with the Twins, but the Mets have a loaded roster, an owner willing to spend whatever it takes, and the City that Never Sleeps. Were the Twins just being used to drive up the dollars? Or to get the Mets to bend on contract language regarding the opt-out? Or did they really have a chance to land Correa?
The Twins and Boras traded multiple offers over the weekend, and confidence their status varied from hour to hour and executive to executive. They knew that Boras was also doing the same with the Mets, and it should be obvious that negotiations with the super agent Boras can be intense. Several times, the pendulum swung from “optimistic” to “pessimistic” and back again, even over the last 24 hours. 
With that said, this is obviously a stunning turn of events in terms of optics. The Mets and Giants are among the most free-spending, impulsive, uninhibited franchises in baseball regarding free agency. The Twins are on the exact opposite end of that spectrum.
Correa has quickly become one of the most publicized high-risk free agents at this level of caliber/price we've ever seen. Minnesota's front office – despite its litany of existing injury concerns – said ‘screw it’ and bypassed the inhibitions that held back big-market titans. Why? Because they feel the shortstop is everything their team needs to take the next step.
The only times the Twins have even approached swimming in waters this deep financially was when they were previously faced with losing longtime Twins fixtures like Kirby Puckett, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton. In 1992, Puckett was the top free agent on the market but re-signed with the Twins for 5 years and $30M. In 2010, entering his last year of team control, Mauer agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract extension to stay with the team. Finally, last year, also entering his final year of team control, Buxton agreed to a 7-year, $100M contract with almost another $100M in possible incentives.
While Correa was with the team for only one year, he has this in common with those players: the organization didn’t want to lose him. 
Correa's impact on the team was clearly evident in 2022, when he put forth stellar production on the field and earned rave reviews of his wide-reaching impact on the organization. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender at a premium position. He’s averaged 28 home runs over 162 games while getting on base at a .359 clip. He’s also just 28 years old, entering the prime of his career. Like those previous players, he is now positioned to be the face of the Twins franchise. 
In terms of his future fit, obviously, Correa is lined up to play shortstop for now, which pushes Kyle Farmer into more of a utility role while giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to work his way back from knee surgery. It's interesting that the Mets were planning to immediately shift Correa to third base (and he seemed totally open to it), so that could be the plan somewhere down the line for Minnesota. 
But as a 28-year-old former Platinum Glover still fielding short at a high level, there's no rush for now. The Twins got their shortstop. And more than that, they got their guy and turned around a wayward offseason with the biggest and boldest contract in franchise history.
The Twins are in it to win it. Let's go.
 

Without question, the Twins remain intensely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa, which seems to be pushing all other offseason priorities to the backburner. 
Every report on the shortstop's market seems to name them among top remaining suitors, including this latest one from Jon Heyman on Saturday listing the Twins, Giants and Cubs among the "teams in on" Correa. 
More recently, the Yankees have emerged as a known contender for Correa's services, even after inking Aaron Judge to his landmark deal. ESPN's Buster Olney reported that he's "definitely picking up a lot of vibes there that yeah they signed Aaron Judge to that $360 million deal, but they’re working on something big."
It's natural for hometown fans to be skeptical of Minnesota's legitimate involvement at this stage against multiple big-market titans for a free agent likely to land $300M+ guaranteed. But outsiders don't necessarily share that skepticism, including Vegas.
As the website OddsChecker.com pointed out a couple days back, "The Twins are given -150 odds to retain Correa, that’s an implied 60% chance. The San Francisco Giants are right behind them though, as they’re given EVEN odds, an implied 50% chance, to land the star shortstop."
It's unclear exactly when Correa will make a decision. The pressure is turning up on the Twins as time passes, because their contingency plans have rapidly come off the table. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have already signed. The idea of pivoting to another big bat like Jose Abreu, Willson Contreras or Brandon Nimmo is also diminishing as all those players are off the table.
Carlos Rodon remains at the top of the free agent pitching pool, but his market is robust. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins are viewing Dansby Swanson as a possible Correa fallback option, having met with the shortstop via video call during the Winter Meetings, but personally I hope (and suspect) that's merely a negotiating ploy to parry against Scott Boras, who is understandably doing all he can to land his client an epic payday.
You see it in small, subtle details like Heyman – a known friend if not mouthpiece of Boras – making a point to note Correa's appealing traits in a tweet updating his market. You see it in the fact Correa's free agency continues to linger as his camp evidently plays bidders against one another to run up the price. Eleven-year deals for Turner and Bogaerts set a sharp precedent, and really give Correa and Boras the ability to set their own terms.
Up to this point, the Twins still seem genuinely invested in meeting them. How long will they hang around if the cost keeps rising? How long can we maintain our sanity as this saga drags on and the front office remains stalled out?
Soon enough, the dominoes will begin to drop. It's probably a stretch to call the Twins favorites but without a doubt, they are in there. Would have been difficult to fathom just a few short years ago.

Ronny Henriquez was acquired in the Mitch Garver deal and was seen as a middling starting pitching prospect. The ERA results weren’t there, but at 21 years old, Henriquez posted a 25%+ K rate at every stop in the minors. His generous listing at 5’10 raised questions about his ability to stand up to a starter’s workload, and those concerns escalated when he posted a near 6 ERA in AAA out of St. Paul’s rotation in 14 starts. His strikeouts continued to impress however, and he was finally moved to a relief role toward the end of the season.
As the Twins faded out of contention, they finally began cycling in younger talent instead of pitchers such as Joe Smith and Tyler Thornburg. In the case of Henriquez, what we saw was very encouraging.
As we’ve seen with Twins pitchers who boast plus sliders, the Twins weren’t shy about having Henriquez go back to the well on his best pitch. He threw his breaking ball nearly 50% of the time as his primary pitch, and in his short stint it proved to be lethal. Despite being by far his most used pitch, the slider induced a whiff rate of over 31%. Not only did it avoid being hit, it allowed a .136 batting average and .227 slugging % when hitters did make contact. His secondary pitch being the changeup only drew a 22.6% whiff rate, but it too allowed a sub .200 average and sub .300 slugging % against as well. Henriquez flashed two plus offerings to get both left and right handed hitters out consistently.
The issue with Henriquez was the fastball. His main concern in St. Paul was the long ball, and the culprit was front and center when he joined the Twins. In his admittedly limited action, his four seam allowed a .400 batting average and staggering 1.400 slugging percentage. Hitters teed off on the pitch, and it’s not difficult to see why:
The good news on the rocky debut of his fastball is that the adjustment is obvious and likely easily fixed: Keep it out of the heart of the zone. The heat map at the top of the zone is fantastic. Adjusting the trend in the middle of the zone could raise his game to new levels in a bullpen role.
Henriquez shouldn’t be an offspeed needy, fastball avoidant pitcher. The 55 scouting grade on his heater is easily justified, as the pitch has been noted to have tremendous ride and can often be pushed into the upper 90s when needed.
While the slider was the eye popping weapon he showed in his debut, it’s possible the fastball could become just as big of a pitch moving forward despite how bad it looked through his first 11+ innings. Even pushing the pitch to average would make Henriquez a legitimate bullpen piece.
Despite being just 22 years old, it can be argued that Henriquez’s days in the minors should be over. With his three-pitch mix one could argue Henriquez should still be working toward a future rotation spot. The issue is that Henriquez is currently on the 40-man roster and would likely be 7th on the starting pitching depth chart at best. He’d have to have a good bit of success in AAA before being entrusted in such a role with the big league club. Much like what’s been argued with fellow top prospect Matt Canterino, it seems like a waste of time to slow cook prospects who appear to be able to help the club right now in pursuit of the very small chance that they can latch on as a starter.
It’s not entirely clear what the Twins offseason plan is regarding the bullpen, but we can assume nothing big is coming. At most they’ll likely sign a Joe Smith caliber pitcher to fill some innings and try to milk some value out of. They may make a waiver claim on a pitcher who does one thing well in pursuit of the next Matt Wisler. Instead we should be hoping for the Twins to turn to one of their young upside arms, a commodity that has been very difficult for this front office to come by.
Rather than spending a few million on another veteran reliever to spend the last year of their career in Minnesota, why not turn to the 22 year old with two plus offspeed pitches and a high 90s fastball? Henriquez could take a low leverage, possibly even multi inning role and get a chance to work his way up the depth chart. If he struggles he can be optioned for another arm as opposed to the yearly bounce back candidate signing that sticks on the roster far too long due to their veteran status.
Last year the Twins may have leaned too heavily on their internal pitching production. This year they have much more in place, and gambling on Henriquez in a minor role seems like a worthwhile bet. Ronny Henriquez should be in the Twins Opening Day bullpen
 

The mutual affinity between Carlos Correa and the Twins does seem genuine. He appears very open to returning, and is at the very least giving Minnesota the time of day by entertaining offers, which is something we've rarely been able to say about top-tier free agents in past years. 
There have been reports of the Twins submitting multiple different proposals to Correa's camp, as the front office gets creative in trying to put forth a framework that entices him away from other monster offers he's sure to receive – while also not being so risk-filled and player-friendly as to defy their sensibilities.
That's a very difficult line to walk. Signing Correa would obviously be a precedent-shattering move for this franchise, at any level, and by all accounts they are ready to take that step. But it doesn't mean they'll hand Scott Boras a blank check. 
Is there a way the Twins could win the bidding for Correa without actually having the largest guaranteed offer? Is there are practical structure for a deal that doesn't force Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to abandon their regard for long-term planning?
I think maybe I've got something. But you tell me if it works for both sides.
Hypothetical Twins/Correa contract: 10 years, $325 million with two player opt-outs.
Here's how it breaks down, year by year:
Year 1: $40M
Year 2: $40M
Year 3: $40M
Year 4: $40M
*opt-out*
Year 5: $30M
Year 6: $30M
Year 7: $30M
*opt-out*
Year 8: $25M
Year 9: $25M
Year 10: $25M
It's a frontloaded contract that is essentially broken down into three parts. After earning $160 million in the first four years, Correa can opt out of six years and $165 million at age 32, or three years and $75 million at age 35.
The reason this feels like a realistic concept is that I can look at it from both sides and talk myself into it, even while accounting for the front office's known tendencies and preferences.
Why the Twins Like It
In trying to come up with this theoretical contract, I presupposed two things from the team's point of view:
They're willing to dish out huge salaries in the short term (they'd have happily paid out Correa's full three-year, $105 million contract), but they're deathly afraid of being burdened by gargantuan commitments for aging mid-30s players down the line. They recognize that player opt-outs are an effective mechanism for making contracts more appealing to players and their agents, but don't want to include them in a way that robs all of the team's upside from a deal. I believe the above framework satisfies their preferences on both fronts. The highest salaries are concentrated at the front of the contract, during Correa's prime years, so they'd be ostensibly paying most for his peak production. The diminishing salaries in the latter part of the deal reduce team downside to some extent should things go awry.
Meanwhile, the opt-outs probably aren't too inhibiting. If Correa chooses to re-enter the market after four or six great years the Twins will have been happy to have gotten them. 
Why Correa and Boras Like It
Well, for one thing, it's a legitimate all-time MLB free agent contract. Correa would tie Giancarlo Stanton and Corey Seager for the sixth-biggest guaranteed sum ever. His salary next year would be the highest for any position player in history, and second overall only to Max Scherzer ($43.3M).
These things matter to Correa and Boras – not sheerly out of greed, as some would proclaim, but to pave the way for future players and contracts. It's no coincidence the past contract made Correa the highest-paid infielder ever, just by a hair.
I also could see the frontloaded makeup of this framework having appeal to Correa, if he wants to be on himself an truly maximize his earnings. Should he tear it up while earning $160 million over the next four years, he could easily re-enter the market at 32 and seek another deal approaching $200 million.
Could It Really Happen?
Let's be clear: this contract would not only shatter precedence for the Twins, but for baseball at large. Of the 10 contracts that have ever been signed for $300 million or more, none came from teams outside of the major markets in Southern California, New York, Texas and Philadelphia. 
For Minnesota to be the first flyover mid-market club to break that barrier would be almost hilariously surreal, and yet, if ever there was a time I could see it happening, it's now. The Twins are ushering in a new era with a comprehensive rebrand and ownership shift. Out of sheer circumstance, they stumbled into getting acquainted with Correa and now have a verifiable IN with one of the most talented players in the world. They also have tremendously clear books going forward.
Do I think it will happen? No, I still don't. But I've talked myself into there being a path. What say you all?
 
 

Noah Cardenas

For my life, I can’t figure out why Noah Cardenas isn’t well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who can hit are rare; catchers who can hit and field well are unique, and Cardenas might be that kind of player. Let’s start with the bat: his .302/.407/.426 line at UCLA has translated well to a .261/.421/.413 one over his first full season in professional ball, 99 games with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels. Despite a hitting environment that favors pitchers, Cardenas rode his excellent feel for the plate to an 18.2% walk rate, good for 3rd in the Florida League; his .421 OBP placed him 4th.
Fielding is more difficult to analyze—even major league stats remain shaky these days—but Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin refer to him as a “glove-driven” catcher, and the Pac-12 honored Cardenas with an honorable mention on their All-Defensive Team in 2019. 
He’s a touch older than your typical A-ball player—he celebrated his 23rd birthday on September 10th—but Cardenas should remain firmly on your radar over the next few years.
Cody Laweryson

“Fun” is seldom a word that describes a prospect, but the word fits Cody Laweryson’s bill perfectly. A 14th-round pick out of Maine in 2019, Laweryson shocked with a monstrous 15-strikeout performance to end his time in rookie ball but entered a hiatus thanks to the canceled minor league season in 2020. His 2021 season was forgettable, but he returned with a dominating 2022 campaign. Laweryson silenced bats with a 1.62 ERA, flipping between starting and relief, striking out 30.2% of hitters while walking just 7.2%. He even stepped up his game at AA, holding a 1.06 ERA over 59 ⅔ innings in a hitter-friendly environment.
Laweryson’s secret sauce is deception, a crane-like delivery with slanted arms and raised elbows that would fit perfectly next to Michael Jackson in the Thriller music video. Hitters can barely see the ball as a barrage of limbs fly toward the plate, masking Laweryson’s pitches until too late. The Twins chose not to protect Laweryson in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, opening up the chance for another team to poach him.
 
Brent Headrick

In May, Matthew Lenz told us we should start noticing Brent Headrick. He was on to something.
After struggling with command in 2021, Headrick shifted into high gear in 2022, punching out batters at an elite rate—31%, to be exact—while limiting walks with Joe Musgrove-esque control. Even a promotion into a hitters' lion's den—the Texas League—couldn’t slow down Headrick’s reign; his K-BB% barely budged after joining the Wind Surge. While not a velocity expert, Headrick works with a deceptive delivery, placing pitches in their proper location before punching out the batter with a high fastball or a diving breaking ball.
The Twins agree that Headrick is fascinating; the team chose to protect him in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, perhaps paving a path for the Illinois State product to pitch for the major league club in 2023. 
Others

Prospect evaluation is far from perfect, but one can often parse through the noise, instead focusing on the statistical freak shows who have become major league stars in recent seasons. Steven Kwan rode an elite contact profile to a 4.4 fWAR season; our own Luis Arraez broke out and won a silver slugger in 2022; Cristian Javier’s absurd minor league K numbers have translated to a career 30.9% K rate in the majors. These players were dinged for other drawbacks, but their outlier abilities have carried them to major league success. Here are a few guys in the Twins organization who stick out:
Jaylen Nowlin

Jaylen Nowlin struck out 35.9% of hitters in 2022. His command was dreadful enough to omit from this paragraph—his walk rate could scare the less courageous among us—but that punch-out rate will keep him around, maybe translating to major league playing time.
Austin Schulfer

The nearly 27-year-old Austin Schulfer is knocking loud enough on the Twins’ door that the neighbors are starting to get irritated. His strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction in 2022, but his groundball rate jumped from average to 58.3%, good for tops in the system amongst all pitchers with 50 innings. Only seven qualified MLB relievers could claim a better penchant for grounders in 2022.
Noah Miller

19-year-olds aren’t supposed to walk 16.2% of the time in their first full season in professional baseball, especially when they play in an offensively stunted environment. Noah Miller’s extra-base authority lagged, but his feel for the zone is already elite.

Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan.
Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th.
Twins Trade Urshela to Angels
Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo.
A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year.
For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view.
Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. 
Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year
With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. 
He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. 
Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails.
While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. 
Farmer Enters the Fold
Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. 
This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. 
In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning.
In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws.
Twins Showing Interest in Rodon
Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years."
In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. 
But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. 
One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster
As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39:
 

 
Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill.
Roster and Payroll Projection: v2
In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. 
They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled.
That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint.
 

 
If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. It's free to all Caretakers! Grab a copy and build your own 2023 blueprint.