Brandon

The Twins neither had to drop one of the best bats in the American League nor acquire more pitching depth to technically have a successful off season. In fact, the hitters are now almost obviously in a worse place without Arraez leading off every day. But this is also a team prone to injuries—so much it led to a new trainer coming in this off season—and it is likely the Twins made this trade on knowledge of what team might be playing in 2023.
Let’s start on the pitching side. Depending on who you talk to, the Twins either had eight starting pitchers heading into the off season or two. Although no longer requiring the services of the Dylan Bundys and Chris Archers of the world, the rotation set up for this year has been beaten and bruised in recent years: Tyler Mahle’s shoulder, Bailey Ober’s groin, Tommy John for Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack (the Twins at least seem some potential upside with Paddack, signing him to an extremely team friendly extension). Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan made it through the season quite well, but neither grabbed enough innings to even qualify for awards at the end of the season. The prospects show a lot of upside, but none are an ace. With Correa and Buxton both hitting their peak seasons, the Twins aren’t necessarily interested in a bet when the American League Central remains easily taken.
Lopez thus seems like an easy, but not necessarily ideal, addition to the team. He’s certainly a great, and possibly All Star caliber pitcher, but is clearly a step below what many Twins fans hoped for at the beginning of the season. Additionally, he has similar injury questions over the last couple years. 
However, one way the trade makes more sense is if you assume that those possible injuries are not just hypotheticals but still real. Maeda and Ober last year seemed to be mysteries waiting in the wing for returns with deadlines kicked down the can. Falvey and co. have painted an optimistic picture but have seemingly remained tight lipped on what to expect, particularly on Mahle. If the Twins know if any of these pitchers are actually in the same trouble as before, the Lopez trade becomes not so much as padding as a necessity. The Twins themselves have hinted at returning Ober to Triple A, perhaps in part due to maybe looming injury concerns. 
On the upside of things, this also means the Twins have likely been able to see enough upside finally on Alex Kirilloff. Anytime the word “experimental” is used to describe a surgery can cause worry, but the Twins likely knew enough that they could trade their All Star first baseman as Kirilloff was ready to fill the void. According to Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic, “Whereas last offseason Kirilloff had to shut down his hitting for a month, this year there have been no such shutdowns.” The various projection models seem at least positive on him, hitting around .260 and a positive WRC+, which would nowhere near put him in the All Star level but also help clear the way for the next round of prospects as Jose Miranda eventually makes a mid season move there. The question for Kirilloff is not necessarily that he be fantastic as much as healthy on the field. The Twins, it seems, have seen enough to pull the trigger on what would otherwise be a somewhat alarming trade, especially after Arraez won a Gold Glove for his work at the position.
Nobody truly loves this trade, but the problem seems to in part by seeing the Twins at full strength rather than what might actually be the case. Sometimes front offices do have to make bets, but they know quite a bit more about the status of the players coming into camp next month. If the Twins see two pitchers go down by the end of April, having Lopez will be an absolute welcome. And if Kirilloff plays well enough, Arraez’s production will still be aesthetically missed, but not necessarily lost. If anything, knowing they should make this trade only confirms the worries that the team that won't be obvious to us until players report to Fort Meyers.
 

Alex Kirilloff will be the first in line to replace Luis Arraez at first and against righties. Hoping Kirilloff's wrist doesn't flare up is the Twins' top priority when replacing Arraez. If Kirilloff misses time, however, the Twins will have an abundance of options to replace him, and one of the most exciting options is Edouard Julien. 
Similarities between Arraez and Julien
Julien and Luis Arraez both came up as second baseman. Neither is renowned for their defense at the position, and it is not a premium position. That limits their value and forces them to hit to be valuable players. 
Luckily for Arraez and Julien, they've shown they can hit, especially against right-handed pitchers. In 2022, Arraez posted a very good .824 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and Julien at AA posted a 1.031 OPS against right-handed pitchers. 
Arraez’s strong .386 OBP primarily drives his success against righties. That on-base ability against righties is something the Twins will desperately need to replace. Last year, Julien posted a remarkable .465 OBP at AA against righties. If he can bring some of that on-base ability to the Twins, that would lessen the blow of losing Arraez. 
While Arraez and Julien share defensive limitations and overall production against right-handed pitchers, each has particular areas of their game where they excel over the other. So, it definitely won't be a one-for-one swap. Of course, you'll be hard-pressed to find anybody like Luis Arraez.  
Where Arraez is Better
Luis Arraez famously rarely strikes out. In his major league career, Arraez has more walks than strikeouts. His strikeout rate for his career is a tiny 8.3%. On the other hand, Julien strikes out at a poor rate, with a 24.6% strikeout rate in 2022 at AA. Surely, that would only increase at the major league level.
Arraez has also established himself as a premier hitter for average. While batting average isn't a great measure of overall offensive production, it’s certainly a component. For batting average, Luis Arraez is your man. Of course, he's the batting champion, which tells you all you need to know about his ability to hit for average. 
Diving deeper in comparing him to Julien, his age-22 season in 2019 at AA seems most relevant as Julien just completed his age-23 season at AA. In limited games at AA in 2019 at age 22, Arraez hit a fantastic .348, which helped him on his ascent to the majors that season. Julien hit a much more mortal .300, which is still nothing to sneeze at. 
Another key differentiator between Arraez and Julien is that Arraez proved he could hit over his 3+ years in the majors. Julien seems on the path to hitting at the major league level too, but he hasn't even reached AAA, so he has a lot to prove. But Julien has shown he can do things that Arraez's limited skill set cannot match. 
Where Julien is Better
Julien's strikeout rate is ugly, but like many strikeout-prone hitters, Julien walks a ton. He had an elite 19.3% walk rate in 2022, which is a significant driver in his terrific on-base success. Arraez's walk rate for his career is a much more average of 8.7%. 
Another common characteristic of strikeout-prone players is power, and Julien has plenty. Of course, most of that comes against righties. He slugged .566 against righties with 15 of his 17 home runs in those matchups. 
This dimension of power and a more patient plate approach is where Julien differentiates himself from Arraez, at the cost of batting average. The Twins need more slugging in 2022 to maximize their offense, so Julien will boost their lineup. They especially need that from the left side. Last season, Nick Gordon had the highest slugging percentage of any Twins left-handed hitter.
Whether the Twins won or lost the Luis Arraez for Pablo López trade will mostly depend on López pitching well and staying healthy. But it will also hinge on young left-handed hitters replacing Arraez in the lineup against right-handed pitching. 
The Twins have their fair share of young left-handed hitters capable of stepping up. While Julien is still young and hasn't yet reached AAA, Twins fans shouldn't be surprised if they see him terrorizing right-handers in the majors come summertime.
 

Advanced analytics love Byron Buxton . The eye test screams even louder. If you sit down next to a random person in Target Field who has never watched baseball on a day Lord Byron is in center field, ask them in the 5th inning, “Hey, who do you think the best player on the field is?” Anyone that can focus on the game will see the undeniability of Buxton’s baseball ability. 
Inconsistent playing time will never equal a .300 batting average at the Major League level with the stuff guys are throwing now. I felt it myself as a player dealing with wrist and hamstring issues. Being in one day and out the next, a week on and a week off, hitting big-league caliber stuff is based on comfort, rhythm, and timing. 
That comfort, rhythm, and timing are so fragile at the highest levels, and we saw what happened last year to a player with all-world ability. Byron looked like the MVP front-runner, but then the knee injury led to sporadic playing time, a strange playing time structure, and a dip in his performance at the plate. 
We got a flaccid Buxton last year. An ambivalent playing schedule alternating center field, designated hitter, and off-days isn’t suitable for Byron Buxton or his performance. The less time he spends in the outfield, the more it feels like we’re declawing a jungle cat. He was born to roam the outfield and steal bases, so why deny it? 
The one glaring thing that can and has denied Buxton and his ability is injury. Buxton is well worth his contract if he plays 80-90 games a season. So why not write him in the lineup every day? 
The risk is worth the reward, and 80 games of linear playing time in center field is more valuable than 90 of intermittent playing time. Baseball is not a dangerous sport. Some of his injury history can be attributed to happenstance. If the baseball gods smile on us, he will keep pace and play those 145-150 games, likely leading to an MVP or, at the least, a top-five finish.
We will get a much better Buxton if he stays on pace for 150 games and plays center field. If he gets hurt at the all-star break after playing 80 games, or plays 90 games sporadically and gets shut down in August, what’s the difference? I want us to unleash the glass cannon that is Byron Buxton. Even if it’s just by sheer good fortune, he will stay healthy eventually. 
Luxury is meant to be lived in. Keeping the Rolls Royce in the garage isn’t good for the engine. We have to let Buck buck!

Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan.
Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th.
Twins Trade Urshela to Angels
Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo.
A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year.
For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view.
Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. 
Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year
With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. 
He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. 
Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails.
While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. 
Farmer Enters the Fold
Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. 
This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. 
In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning.
In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws.
Twins Showing Interest in Rodon
Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years."
In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. 
But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. 
One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster
As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39:
 

 
Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill.
Roster and Payroll Projection: v2
In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. 
They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled.
That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint.
 

 
If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. It's free to all Caretakers! Grab a copy and build your own 2023 blueprint.
 

Kyle Farmer is, to be kind, an obscure baseball presence. A former catcher, raised in the blue-blood Dodgers farm system—something he has in common with his Twins garlicky brother in Kyle—Farmer’s major league impact has been a ripple, not a wave. There was the time he walked off the Giants in his major league debut, but two full seasons OPSing at a below-average rate with the Reds doesn’t place you on many radars. At least, not worthwhile ones. At a cursory glance, the Twins may have sent away Gio Urshela just to acquire an older, cheaper, and slightly worse Gio Urshela. 
But that narrative sells Farmer short; his OPS over the past two seasons is nearly bang-on league average for a shortstop (.716 for Farmer, .714 for the league), while, at least in 2021, Statcast’s OAA measure clocked Farmer as one of the finest glovemen at his position, crediting him with six outs above average while handling shortstop. That placed him as the 9th-best fielding shortstop that year. His defense in 2022 was not as sparkling, though, and which Farmer the Twins will receive defensively appears to be an open question—one made murkier with shift-aided success in 2021. 

With new rules limiting where infielders are allowed to stand, those bonus outs to the right of 2nd base will no longer exist; whether Farmer can regain his form at the traditional shortstop position will be up to him. 

His bat, however, has remained consistent, especially against lefties. As the great Tom Froemming has pointed out, Farmer is infield Kyle Garlick, pillaging southpaw villages while leaving fire and rubble in his wake. Lefties loathed facing Farmer, allowing a .948 OPS against him in 2022, a significant step up from his already hefty career line of .288/.345/.492 against them. The Twins, as pointed out by this author, have struggled against lefties since the 2019 season; any extra boost rounds out the team offensively. 
The debate now focuses on where he fits on the team. While he could technically start as the everyday shortstop, a certain 28-year-old Puerto Rican is the preferred target of Twins fans. The Great Carlos Correa Question remains unanswered, and until his pen touches paper once again, the Twins’ shortstop position will operate with split-pea soup haziness.
It’s unlikely that the team will open business in late March with Farmer as the starting shortstop; instead, this author guesses he will operate as a super-utility infielder focusing on playing against lefties. Farmer has played every position in the infield—indeed, that means every position—and even subbed in for four frames in the outfield. The Twins lack a player in that mold, especially one who has flashed an ability to hold down shortstop at an exceptional level. 
But who knows? The Twins relish acquiring baseline players early to set up bigger splashes later. Trying to guess Farmer’s roster contribution in November is like being a stockbroker in 1929. More moves will fill in the roster, creating a much clearer picture, but for now, the Twins appear to have a helpful infielder who can mash lefties, something they have needed for years.
 

Twins Daily panelists had three excellent choices in front of them when trying to select the best rookie on this year's Twins team. 
Joe Ryan delivered one of the best rookie campaigns by a starting pitcher in team history, posting a 13-8 record and 3.55 ERA in 27 starts. He led the team in innings. 
José Miranda shook off a slow start after debuting in May with a torrid summer on the way to a 116 OPS+, 15 home runs, and a team-leading 66 RBIs.
Both Ryan and Miranda were essential to keeping their respective units afloat. Ryan, outside of a bout with COVID, stayed healthy all year in an injury-plagued rotation, and was consistently effective for the most part. Miranda was at times the only credible threat in a slump-prone lineup, the antidote for an offense allergic to hitting with RISP.
But I don't think anyone can argue against the fact that Jhoan Durán's importance to this year's bullpen is unparalleled. He was not only their most reliable reliever, but oftentimes their only reliable reliever. He did marvelous, magical things on the mound that Minnesota Twins fans (and major-league baseball fans) have never seen before. 
Durán was barely the choice for Twins Daily Rookie of the Year, beating out Miranda by an extremely slim margin, but he was absolutely the right choice. These five numbers explain why.
Jhoan Duran's Spectacular Rookie Season, by the Numbers
103.8 MPH
The radar reading on Durán's hardest fastball of the season, thrown on September 27th, setting a new Twins franchise record for fastest recorded pitch. Naturally, he broke his own record, set at 103.3 MPH back in May, which itself broke his own record set earlier that month. Durán's laser beam against Elvis Andrus of the White Sox was rounded up on the TV broadcast, flashing an absurd 104 MPH.
100.8 MPH
The velocity of a "splinker" thrown by Durán on August 29th against Boston, becoming the first offspeed pitch in major-league history to clock at 100-plus MPH. It was one of the nastiest and most untouchable pitches ever witnessed, sending a hopeless Alex Verdugo to the bench on strike three.
The presence of Durán's splitter-sinker combo alongside his red-hot heater is crucial to his success, giving batters the almost impossible task of deciphering which one's coming within a sliver of a second. While the right-hander's fastball velo is rare – only a select few pitchers like Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks operate in that realm – his "offspeed" juice is what truly sets him apart. No one else is coming close to this velocity on a splitter. He's a unicorn.
Of course, all of this eye-popping velocity wouldn't mean much if he couldn't command it and throw it in the zone. But he did.
69.31%
Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes by Durán, the 11th-best mark for any MLB reliever. He allowed only 16 walks in 67 ⅔ innings (2.1 BB/9), and issued multiple free passes in an appearance once all year.
The dread felt by opposing hitters stepping in against the imposing 6-foot-5 specimen was only made worse by the fact that trying to coax a walk was unlikely to be fruitful. 
 
As Aaron Gleeman marveled at The Athletic not long ago: "He relentlessly pounds the strike zone with arguably the best raw stuff in the world, changing speeds and eye levels in a way that almost seems unfair. Duran is destined to be one of the greatest relievers in Twins history if they can keep him healthy. He’s unreal."
1.86
Durán's final ERA in 2022, the 7th-best mark for any reliever in Twins history. His combination of elite stuff and precision command have led to complete and total dominance for Durán, who held opponents to a .207 average and struck out more than a third of the batters he faced (33.5%). His 1.86 ERA trails only these six seasons from Twins relievers, half of which belong to the great Joe Nathan:
Dennys Reyes, 2006 (0.89) Joe Nathan, 2008 (1.33) Al Worthington, 1964 (1.37) Joe Nathan, 2006 (1.58) Joe Nathan, 2004 (1.62) Caleb Thielbar, 2013 (1.76) Durán was at his best during the second half, posting a 1.05 ERA with only one home run allowed in 24 appearances.
4.59
Durán's final Win Probability Added, which led all American League pitchers and ranked second among MLB relievers. Only Daniel Bard of the Rockies made a bigger impact on his team's outcomes. To me, this measurement gets to the core of what made Durán so remarkable and indispensable. 
Not only was he putting absolutely ridiculous numbers against big-league hitters ... he was doing it against the BEST big-league hitters in the BIGGEST spots. Once Rocco Baldelli became aware of what he had in Durán, the reliever was permanently pushed into a "fireman" role. Nearly every appearance was under duress, with the game hanging in the balance, and the heart of the opposing order due up.
To pitch so well, in such consistently difficult circumstances, as a rookie with 16 previous innings of experiences above Double-A ... it's incomprehensible. Among all MLB rookie relievers since 1990, only Jonathan Papelbon has posted a higher WPA than Durán did in 2022. That was in 2006, the first of four straight All-Star seasons for Papelbon.
Amidst all of these amazing numbers, the most important one for Durán might be 57. That's the number of appearances he made for the Twins, staying healthy and strong all year long as a go-to linchpin in the bullpen after totaling five appearances last year, when a forearm strain derailed his season. 
For all the worst-case scenarios that played out with the Twins this year from a health standpoint, Durán completely shaking off last year's elbow issues was a direly needed exception to the rule. If he can continue to keep that golden arm rocking, he'll be a vital asset in whatever this team is trying to build. Durán's rookie season was one for the ages.
FINAL VOTING POINTS TALLY:
Durán: 42 Miranda: 40 Ryan: 31  Moran: 6 Winder: 3 Celestino: 3 Varland: 1

This offseason Derek Falvey made former Los Angeles Angels pitcher Dylan Bundy his first pitching acquisition when he was signed to a one-year deal worth $6 million. An $11 million team option was tied to 2023, and the hope for the Twins was that they could recapture the 3.29 ERA (and 2.95 FIP) that had Bundy finish 9th in the American League Cy Young voting during the 2020 season.
That would be a difficult task considering how bad he was last season for Los Angeles. Bundy owned a 6.06 ERA along with a 5.51 FIP. He was allowing two homers every nine innings, and he pitched in just 90 2/3 innings. The velocity actually ticked up to 90.8 mph last year, but the whiff rate dropped below 10% for the first time in his career.
Still, Minnesota’s plan was a value play. Bundy, alongside the eventual signing of Chris Archer, represented an opportunity to squeeze something out of nothing at the back end of the pen. To date, Bundy has thrown slower, struck out fewer batters, and his Statcast page makes Minnesota look warm in January. 

The notable reality here is what’s happened. Sure, Bundy doesn’t put the ball by anyone, and his start is hardly worth making note of. He does generate a strong chase rate and limits walks, but based on expected outcomes, regression should hit him hard. Yet, it hasn’t. He owns a FIP in line with his ERA, and an expected ERA of 3.98. No matter how you cut it, the stuff doesn’t match the results, but the job has gotten done. I wouldn’t guess Minnesota is itching to hand out the $11 million in 2023, but they’ve got to be happy with the surplus value this season.
On the flip side, there’s Emilio Pagan. Acquired from the San Diego Padres for Taylor Rogers just before Opening Day, Pagan was picked as a closer type with hopes of regaining his 2019 stuff with Tampa Bay. It began with a poor first outing against the Seattle Mariners, and the reliever has never recovered.
Pagan is under team control through 2023, certainly part of the allure in acquiring him. He can be tendered a deal through arbitration and won’t break Minnesota’s bank. The problem is that the results have culminated to the tune of 5.04 ERA, 2.0 HR/9, six losses, and seven blown saves. In short, he’s largely been the difference between winning or losing the American League Central division.
The reason Pagan continues to be given a leash is that everything except the results says he should be good. Velocity is up, his xFIP is just 3.30, he owns nearly a 36% chase rate and gets whiffs 14% of the time. In an age where velocity is king and misses matter, Pagan checks those boxes. His Statcast page shows a nearly inverse result of Bundy’s. Pagan has everything going for him until wood meets leather, and then it’s an absolute nightmare.

It’s been a very interesting situation for the Twins to manage this year. Rocco Baldelli has constantly been hamstrung with a bullpen including an unusable pitcher in Pagan. He’s been kept around on the hopes that tweaks will lead to expected or desired results becoming reality. Bundy isn’t the piece you build around, but he’s not the reason you lose now. Pagan is the type you hope to have become an asset, but you’ll take your lumps along the way.
This season Minnesota may have tied themselves to the wrong horse for long enough that it bites them. An analytical approach is how you seek to gain value and create sustainability, but there’s more than enough room for hiccups along the way. For a team threading the needle so tightly, we’ll have to see whether whatever happens in 2023 was worth whatever took place in 2022.

Last Friday, the Twins were in last place. This Friday, they're in first place, with seven wins in a row. How did this turnaround happen? Many community members credit the pitching; a growing congregation recognizes a certain cloven-hoofed, ruminant mammal. There's still room on the bandwagon to contribute your own theory.
Symbolizing the vibe is the aptly named @OptimisticTwinsFan, with a detailed breakdown of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober: Reasons for Optimism - How optimistic should we be about the Twins rotation and their young starters? It's a compelling statistical case that the good vibrations can continue.
Of course, statistics alone can't explain the wackiness of our walk-offs. Any win streak has a spiritual component, and @aTwinsFanInMaryland called our attention to the mystical power of Ritchie The Rally Goat. At a rumored price tag of $9.95, any positive effect from the goat is undoubtedly a good value too.
Evidence of the improved clubhouse atmosphere came from one of our latest additions, with Correa open to long-term deal with Twins, reports @AlwaysinModeration. Carlos will likely cost more than Richie, though.
But as the old baseball adage goes, "mo wins, mo problems." For one thing, we now have to wonder what pitcher is going to close out all of these victories. @LewFordLives has a suggestion: Archer as Closer? If the rest of our starting staff keeps performing well, the veteran Archer could really stand out in the pen.
And for a refreshing change of pace, instead of complaining about the team, we direct our complaints toward those who disrespect our team instead. The healthy shoulders of our pitchers can give us fans a healthy chip on our shoulders, as @Brandon has stern words for the producers of this MLB.com power rankings BS.
What's your explanation? And what's the roster going to look like after the May 1st cuts? Join a conversation or start your own in the forums.

I’ve watched countless veterans get a shot to wake up the echoes of past glory for the Minnesota Twins. In a tale as old as time, those veterans simply didn’t have it anymore, be that “it” talent, youth, conditioning, anabolic steroids, some cocktail of all these things, you name it. I’ve watched Steve Carlton and Sidney Ponson and Rondell White and Butch Huskey and Bret Boone and Joe Crede and Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco and Ramon Ortiz and Steve Howe and Roberto Kelly and Greg Myers and Pat Borders and Ruben Sierra and Greg Swindell and Mike Morgan and Todd Jones and Mike Fetters and Jesse Orosco and James Baldwin and Phil Nevin.
I’ve talked myself into Brian Fuentes as a possible closer. It feels good to admit this in a public forum. My shame is yours now.
Given all that I’ve learned, and knowing that for every Paul Molitor there are 145 Shane Rawleys, I want you to know what I think about Chris Archer.
I think he’s going to be just fine.
Given all the names I’ve listed without even mentioning John Candelaria, not even once, you are likely wondering why I think Archer will be perfectly adequate.
Because I need it very badly.
I could really use a good, solid Twins season in 2022. I say this knowing extremely well that 40% of the starting rotation are veterans trying to prove something after a bad year or years, 40% are just kids, and 20% is Sonny Gray. It’s challenging to be optimistic!
And yet. It’s going to be alright. Do I have proof of this? Of course not. But the fact remains, I’d really like for it to happen, and it feels like the universe owes us a kindness. Might that feeling just be a breakfast burrito repeating on me? Absolutely.
But this time, it’ll be different.

The Twins find themselves in a difficult situation this winter. After trading their #1 starting pitcher in Jose Berrios, they’re left with only two rotation spots tentatively spoken for, each by a rookie. A pitching staff that sunk the former back-to-back AL Central champs has to be completely reworked on the front end with significant needs in a bullpen that struggled as well. 
Shortstop, the quarterback of the infield, is also vacant and will require a legitimate impact addition in order to help propel the team back into contention. In addition to on-field tangibles, they’ve also lost the leader of their pitching staff in Berrios, as well as the leader of the team as a whole in Nelson Cruz. A path to a comeback in 2022 is a bumpy one, but it could certainly be done.
What can’t be recovered from, however, is adding center field to the list of vacancies. 
Center field is one of the most important everyday players on any baseball team. In Minnesota, the player manning the position has been the reason the team has sunk or swam. Since the Twins rise to success in 2019, they’ve been 100-64 with Buxton on the field and 106-106 without him. Correlation does not equal causation, but there’s no denying those numbers are indicative of Buxton’s impact when you watch him on the field.
Some have called for Buxton to be traded in the past, mainly due to his long list of injuries. There’s no stopping such an opinion, but those who hold it have to realize what they’re advocating. The Twins almost certainly surpass the point of no return if they choose to field a team without Byron Buxton.
The best case scenario following a Buxton trade, regardless of the return, is to sell off literally everyone else. Pay part of Josh Donaldson’s contract to get the best possible return. Take advantage of the need for catchers across the league and get a haul for Mitch Garver. See if anyone is willing to make an offer for Taylor Rogers. 2022 will certainly be a wash, and these players would offer more value on the trade market than on a losing team.
Does that reality sound painful? Try the alternative where the Twins trade one of the best players in baseball and try to compete in 2022. The path to doing so without emptying the farm system or spending an unrealistic amount in free agency simply doesn’t exist. Pretending that the team marches into the playoffs in 2022 without Buxton manning center field would set Twins baseball back years. At least Option A gives full attention to collecting young talent to try to develop a new core for the near future.
The team still has a path to contention in 2022, and even if that doesn’t work out, their upcoming prospects should position them well for 2023. Extending Byron Buxton is a vote of confidence not only in the front office's ability to rebound, but in the current core that’s in place. Trading Byron Buxton is waving a white flag on both fronts.
The next move by the front office won’t be forced. It’s a choice. Byron Buxton isn’t asking for anything near record-setting money. There is no better player they’ll ever find to man center field, and the one they have is a home-grown fan favorite. Such a move by the front office would be giving up on a two-year window that earned them so much praise despite it never having been capitalized on.
In six years this front office has inherited a stinker of a team and converted it into a core of players that once had fans thinking the stars are the limit. Now they sit on the edge of a decision that would rightfully leave fans wondering “What was it all for?”.
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“When I was growing up, we didn’t just cut a guy loose after a bad year, we kept him on the team for years,” said Stephen Gilchrest, an electrician from Castle Rock Township. “It sucked. I hated every minute of it.”
The 50-year-old father of two was in the prime of his Twins-loving life when Minnesota acquired reliever Ron Davis from the New York Yankees. It left a mark on Gilchrest that he says he still feels.
“I don’t think you really ever get over something like that,” said Gilchrest, his voice lowering as he battled to keep his emotions in check. “At the same time, it teaches you so many valuable lessons that you can draw on in everyday life.”
Such as?
“Pain. Life is pain. Keep your expectations low. Understand that the world is not fair, and it will never be fair. Unqualified people will maintain positions of privilege despite flaws so glaring it’ll make your teeth hurt. Ron Davis will be your team’s closer for over four years and there’s nothing you can do about it. Admittedly that last one is super specific, but it still resonates.”
Although many might be glad the Twins are opening a new chapter in their search for a 2022 closer, Gilchrest is not among their ranks.
“What kind of lesson does it teach the kids of today when the Twins can just go out and make the right decision, just like that,” asked Gilchrest. “I had to suffer for years. I listened to the Jamie Quirk game on the radio and my dog died the next day. I buried Shep and my dreams on the same weekend in 1984.
“You know who the closer was in 1985? Ron Davis. That’s when I stopped going to mass.”
Gilchrest worries that the move might cause some younger fans to get too confident in the team’s prospects.
“They’ll probably get a younger guy on a cheaper deal and he’ll turn out to be OK, maybe even better than OK, and the kids will get their hopes up,” said Gilchrest. “Hope. That’s what always gets you. Hell, I’m thrilled that they’re going in a different direction, but isn’t it even more important to let the children know that nothing gets better? Put Colome out there with a 2-run lead on Opening Day 2022. They’ll learn something that day.”

Varland was selected in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft, and after just a brief debut in that season, he showed out in a big way this year. Putting in a ton of work during the shutdown for minor league baseball in 2020, results showed in a big way for the up-and-coming pitcher.
I checked in with him to see why he thought there was so much success this season, talk baseball, the offseason, and pick his brain. Here’s what he had to say:
Twins Daily: You didn't get much of a debut for Elizabethton following your selection in the 2019 draft. With minor league baseball shut down last season, how did you go about improving and gearing up for the season?
Louie Varland: After pitching 8 2/3 innings and the season getting canceled, I really did exactly what the Twins asked of me, and it spiraled into improving my mechanics and staying healthy. I threw pretty much all COVID year with two short shutdown periods. When I was throwing, I was working on stuff, whether it was mechanics or pitch development. I worked with Richard Salazar, Mark Moriarty, Martijn Verhoeven, the Twins coordinators, and Kevin Walsh with Starters. 
TD: With the dust settled in 2021, you were among the best minor league pitchers in baseball. What was your focus, and what did you feel helped you take the most significant step forwards?
LV: My focus was getting outs and putting my team in a position to win. In order to do that, I had to throw my pitches in my strikeout zones; Fastball top of the zone, changeup bottom right and slider bottom left. What really helped me take that next step and making it easy for me was an arm path fix. Working a lot with Martijn, Zach Bove, and my pitching coaches, I was able to clean it up and make it more efficient and easily repeatable.

TD: Having pitched at two levels this season, you saw equal success in both places. What did you feel was the most significant difference at Low-A and High-A?

LV: The biggest difference that I noticed was the batters not swinging at balls out of the zone as much. I got away with more balls out of the zone being swung at in Low-A than High-A. Batters also had a better approach looking for specific pitches during different innings depending on what pitches I have working. A little more patience, I would say. They barreled more balls as well. 
TD: You've now picked up a few different Pitcher of the Year awards, both from the Twins and Twins Daily. What do those mean to you?
LV: It’s always nice to get awards. I look at them as a reward for my hard work. I do have to give credit to my fielders making great plays behind me. Nonetheless, it is a satisfying feeling even though I have a lot more work to do and more to prove.
TD: As someone from Minnesota and played their college career at Concordia in St. Paul, what would it mean for you to make the big leagues with your hometown team? What steps do you need to take in preparation for Double and Triple-A next season?

LV: It would mean a lot. It was a dream come true to be drafted by the Twins, but it would be more of a dream come true to make the big leagues with them. I need to fine-tune some pitches and continue to improve my pitching in general. Like I said earlier, I need to dial in my pitches and throw them in the strike-out zones when I want. Consistency with my three pitches.
TD: How much of the Major League Baseball postseason are you tuning into? Is there a guy or two you like to key in on and try to learn from their stuff?
LV: I need to be watching more, but I’ve tuned in a little here and there. I always love watching (Gerrit) Cole, (Max) Scherzer, (Liam) Hendriks, and (Josh) Hader.  
TD: Although the offseason doesn't mean the work ends, what are you most looking forward to in terms of recharging and relaxation?
LV: I like to fish, so I will be fishing around Minnesota. Also, a little hunting. I took a couple of weeks off, and I’m back to training now, but I will enjoy the outdoors in the weekends to come before the snow flies. Then I’ll be ice fishing.
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Last season Mitch Garver was a non-factor at the dish for Minnesota. He played just 23 games in the shortened calendar but also posted a paltry .511 OPS. His expected on-base prowess had fallen off, and the power production was non-existent. Amid failed expectations, there was an intercostal injury that placed him on the shelf.
In talking with Garver and through observation while he was active, there was an evident inability to uncork his traditional swing path. The muscle strain was hampering his typical swing and had him late and less than effective when making contact. While all players deal with injuries or fatigue during a season, this was something Garver couldn’t produce through.
Fast forward to 2021, and we have seen the same stellar catcher that exploded onto the scene two seasons ago. Although he started slow and missed time due to a gruesome injury, he now has 50 games under his belt and is toting a .901 OPS. Since May 1, Garver owns a 1.060 OPS, and that number jumps up to 1.180 since returning from the Injured List. Blasting his way through opposing pitching staffs, Garver is working harder by carrying a 1.038 OPS against righties.
Now 30-year-old and under team control through 2023, there’s not much reason to extend the backstop. However, it is worth making the argument that Mitch may be the best catcher in baseball, and that’s something that the Twins would love to have at their disposal when retooling for another run at the division and beyond.
Joining him in this year of resurgence is none other than Jorge Polanco. After adding 22 dingers to the Bomba Squad tally in 2019, Polanco quite literally limped through 55 games and a .658 OPS last season. He was consistently bailing out on swings, revealing that his surgically-repaired ankle was never truly right.
Like Garver and many Twins batters, for that matter, Polanco got off to a slow start in 2021. Even despite that, he’s now racked up 100 games worth of action and has an .811 OPS to show for it. It’s all but certain that a new career-high in homers is coming, and the move to second base has proven to be a successful if not welcomed change of scenery.
Since July 1, Polanco owns a .963 OPS with a .325 average. He’s finding gaps, putting the ball over the fence, and looking like every bit of his swing exudes both confidence and power. Rocco Baldelli needed this version of Polanco back, and this is the guy Derek Falvey believed he extended before the 2019 season.
There’s plenty of reason to be skeptical about the Twins chances in 2022. They had a clear retooling opportunity, but the trade of Jose Berrios is a significant blow to their need for immediate pitching help. The front office will set out to find a new group of supplementing talent, but this internal pair is one they should again feel confident in for the year ahead. Minnesota was seen as a contender coming into 2021 due mainly to the expectations placed on the holdovers. Many failed to reach those marks, and some have still had more questions than answers. For Garver and Polanco, though, it’s never been more clear what’s left in the tank.
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