Cory Engelhardt

The Twins are a little over halfway through spring training. One notable absence from pretend game action: Byron Buxton. The oft-injured superstar hasn’t played an inning of pretend baseball yet. The team says it’s standard operating procedure for players returning from injury. Doug Spivey is taking them at their word.
Until Thursday, March 16th.
“If he isn’t in the lineup by then I am flipping my [EXPLETIVE],” said the Eveleth pipefitter. “What if he’s out half the season? What if it’s career-ending? I’m going to freak the [EXPLETIVE] out and that is a promise.”
The Twins open the season at Kansas City on March 30th.
“By then it’ll be two weeks on the nose until the regular season,” said the 52-year-old. “Right now, I’m calm and cool. Let him work out behind the scenes, trust the process, embrace serenity. But at midnight next Thursday I’m going to run shirtless around town, weeping and wailing.”
At least one Twins expert agrees.
“I’m not conspiratorial about this at all,” said Twins Daily founder John Bonnes. “I don’t think there’s anything they’re trying to hide from us. The games aren’t as important as the rehab. He knows how to field and hit. But! If he’s not playing in a week, I will be rending garments and screaming for justice. I will drink IPAs that aren’t fruit-forward with notes of passion fruit and mango. I will lose my mind.”
Spivey says he’s noticed an uptick in internet chatter about Buxton’s absence.
“Once Correa started playing, I think everyone assumed Buxton would follow suit,” said Spivey. “And then he didn’t, and the comments sections started getting real suspicious about what was quote really happening unquote. I still think we’re fine and I have a big grin on my face for the upcoming season.
“However, I’m prepared to apologize to Reddit user frankviolamustacheride42069 if it turns out Buxton is still banged up. I was wrong to doubt you, frankviolamustacheride42069.”
The Twins face the Orioles today at 5:00pm. Buxton is not expected to play.
“I’m still not worried,” said Spivey. “Every moment spent waiting is agony, but I'm not worried.”

The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble. In 2021, Randy Dobnak made the team as a long reliever as the team’s assumed sixth starter. The downside became evident almost immediately. When starters exited in a close game, it made more sense to go to a high-leverage reliever to keep the game intact. The Twins almost never found themselves having a sizable lead or deficit when the starter exited. Dobnak would go upwards of a week without throwing a single pitch, and he looked like that was very much the case when he did finally get some action.
It can be argued that we learned that a long reliever role can’t be filled by a legitimate starting pitching option, at least not if you want them to develop or be ready to fill in if a member of the rotation goes down. This leaves the role to such a specific type of player that it becomes kind of hard to believe the Twins would actually choose to dedicate a roster spot to such a role. That being said, Rocco Baldelli continues to hint that he would prefer to go this route, so it’s worthwhile to explore some options on who could fill such a role. 
Cole Sands
Sands is already walking the starter/reliever tightrope. The Twins were clear they weren’t planning on anyone making a formal switch from starting to relieving this spring, but Sands was listed as the closest arm to doing so. Sands already holds a 40-man roster spot and has options remaining, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man on Opening Day. He also made spot appearances in this role in 2022 on occasion.
Sands is far from the next man up in the rotation, and for this reason, may serve this role better than someone like Bailey Ober who needs to be ready to fill a traditional starter’s role on a moment’s notice. Sands could use the opportunity to acclimate himself to a bullpen job, which seems like an eventual certainty for his career. He should still be able to provide 3+ innings of work in a pinch as well, which makes him a decent candidate.
Randy Dobnak
While a long shot, it could once again be Dobnak to fill a long relief role. At this point, he’s buried in the rotational depth chart. He finally appears to be healthy, and while his unbelievable numbers in his debut are unlikely to be repeated, Dobnak could be serviceable and durable, making him a solid fit.
The issue of course is Dobnak’s lack of a 40-man spot after being outrighted off the 40-man roster this winter. The Twins can easily make space if they feel he’s the best man for the job. Though the money they committed to Dobnak is inconsequential, they do owe him a few million in the next few years. If he’s in a good place health-wise, the Twins could very well decide to get their money’s worth and see if Dobnak can make a resurgence in a different role. He’s been used more or less as a starter so far this spring, meaning he should be physically capable of filling bulk innings if his previously ailing finger is right.
José De León
The deepest of sleepers, De León is a former top prospect that was discussed as part of a return for Brian Dozier back when he was in the Dodgers system. Injuries have derailed a once-promising career, but he’s still fighting for a roster spot at 30 years old. De León came out on Sunday and showed that he still had plenty left in the tank, allowing two hits and one run in three spring innings and striking out six.
De León may not have a 40-man spot or options, but the right-hander is in a perfect situation with the Twins able to open a spot on the 40-man roster with ease. Rather than putting one of their young arms in an inconsistent role, the Twins could opt for adding a veteran to fill this job while being prepared to cut bait if it goes poorly. Keep an eye on De León’s performance in the World Baseball Classic in the coming weeks as well, as he’ll be departing to pitch for Puerto Rico this week.
There are other candidates that could take a long relief role and do reasonably well, but it’s likely the Twins avoid using young prospects such as Josh Winder or Simeon Woods Richardson because of the inconsistency that comes along with the job. Instead expect the Twins to look towards former starters turned relievers or more of the veteran expendable types to fill the role, if the Twins choose to go this route at all.
Are there any candidates you’d like to see take the long reliever role? Should the Twins bother using a long reliever at all? Let us know below!

Jaylen Nowlin grew up in Atlanta, Georgia. His parents encouraged him to play many sports and keep busy, so he did, and in doing so developed some great friendships. Once he reached high school, his focus turned solely toward baseball. That decision appears to be the right one for the talented lefty. 
At Westlake High School, he teamed with Lawrence Butler, one of the top prospects in the Oakland A’s organization. He had committed to West Virginia, but the A’s selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He had a solid season in the High-A Midwest League in 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Butler was added to the 40-man roster last November and has a chance to debut in 2022. Through seven spring training games, he is 8-for-14 (.571) with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. 
With a few players who are now pros and several who played in college, how good was their team? Nowlin admitted, “Shockingly, not that good. We had the talent, but we definitely lacked the discipline. We had a lot of fun, but discipline was probably our weakest point.” 
In the summers, Nowlin and Butler played on a local team in regional and national Perfect Game tournaments and did very well. Former Atlanta Braves outfielder Marquis Grissom led the team. His son, Marquis Grissom, Jr., was on the team. He went to Georgia Tech and was drafted by the Nationals in 2021. Also on the team was 2022 National League Rookie of the Year, Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris. Harris was called up to Atlanta from Double-A at the end of May, and he went on to use an incredible toolset to hit for average, showed his power, and showed great speed on the bases and in center field.  
Marvin Freeman spent parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues. He was the pitching coach on the team. Along with Grissom, they provided some much-needed mentorship. “Those two have really pushed my career along since I was like 14 years old. Marvin Freeman is the best pitching coach I could ever ask for. He is just a guru with it. He knows how to make everything make sense, help out, and have all the cues. Without him, I would be a different pitcher right now.” 
Nowlin recalls, “There was a lot of competition on the team and a lot of competition that we placed against.” He later said, “We did some damage in those Perfect Game tournaments. We were a deep team, pretty much an all black team. A deep team too. We had a lot of talent.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been around excellent players for a long time. He was putting up a quality resume in his own right. He had committed in high school to Jackson State but instead went to Chipola College in Florida, one of the best junior colleges nationally every year. In 2021, Nowlin pitched in 16 games and 42 innings. He walked too many (24), but he struck out an incredible 59 batters (44% of batters faced). 
Nowlin said of the experience, “That’s where my development really took off. I struggled early on, but the pitching coach got to me, and that’s when we started hammering down on just  throwing strikes.” 
He committed to pitching at the University of Alabama-Birmingham in 2022. But then came the draft. He was at home with his parents and a few friends. It took awhile, but finally, in the 19th round, he heard his name called as the pick of the Minnesota Twins. 
He quickly signed and got to work. He pitched in just one FCL game during the season. It was during Instructs that Nowlin started to make his name known. Reports were that the lefty was hitting 97 with his fastball and showing a sharp slider. 
The southpaw started his first full minor-league season in Fort Myers. He pitched in 19 games, including 11 starts. He was part of one of the two Mighty Mussels no-hitters. 
David Festa started it. Nowlin pitched in the middle, and Hunter McMahon finished it off. “Once I came in, I just came in and threw. I had no idea that they had no hits at that point until I came out and Hunter came in. I was just going in there, doing my job, like normal. Once we finished the game and they started throwing the water everywhere, I was still pretty much confused.”
 He ended the season with three starts for Cedar Rapids before their playoff run. “I was happy to be able to make that step, just to reach another level. I just want to be able to continue to progress every year, get better as much as I can, and move up as fast as I can. So moving up to Cedar Rapids was a great experience for me, and I was very appreciative of it.” 
Nowlin has a three-pitch mix primarily. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but has reached 97 at times. He’s got a good, sharp slider, and he also throws a changeup. He says he also likes to throw a two-seamer every once in a while too. Along with stuff, Nowlin thinks he’s got the right mentality. “It’s me throwing every single pitch I have with conviction. It’s just trying to let everything eat, throw it down the middle, and see if they can hit it. I like to test batters to see if they can hit it. I try not to do too much. Keep everything simple. Shove it right down the middle and see if they can beat me.” 
Combined, he threw 71 innings and had a remarkable 111 strikeouts (14.1 K/9). He also had 36 walks, which is more than he would want and something to focus on in the offseason. Lowering that walk rate is just one of his goals heading into the 2023 season. 
And in the offseason, he spends a lot of time with his friends. “We’re a tight group. Me, Mike, Marquis, Lawrence. We’re a tight group. We work out together in the offseason. We’re always with each other, playing a game together, working out, or just chilling at each other’s houses.” 
Nowlin says he is ‘definitely a goal guy, highly goal oriented. Keep progressing. Get to Double-A as fast as I can. Move up as much as I can this year. Get better every day.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been in Fort Myers preparing for the season since mid-January. His strikeout rate and stuff have him entering most Top 30 Twins prospect rankings. He and fellow 2021 Day 3 draft pick David Festa are two Twins pitching prospects to move up most in 2022. Can Nowlin take another big step forward in 2023?
For more Jaylen Nowlin content on Twins Daily, click here. 

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel
THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 
He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.
Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 
If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.
The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 
Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.
THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 
He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.
What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.
But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 
Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:
Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base

After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. 
What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.
Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration
One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?
Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs
Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.
Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential
When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.
Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline
When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.
A Star is Born
While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.
Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. 
One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!
What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!

Over at Fangraphs, Dan Syzmborski has released his 2023 ZiPS projections, putting the Twins at 80 wins. They are a high variance team without question, and could have looked at adding another bullpen piece, but given the overall success of the offseason, that feels a bit low. I guess having a low floor is not appreciated by ZiPS and as we saw last year, the Twins’ floor isn’t pretty. Same goes for the White Sox who are projected for only 74 wins. Cleveland comes in at 83 wins, and some projections have them closer to 90. They’re new and interesting and clearly on the rise. But are they really that good?
The title of this article will tell you what I think, although it should be noted that the Guardians played excellent ball all year in 2022 and bulldozed the Twins and White Sox in September in legitimate fashion on their way to some fun playoff moments. They were also really healthy, but more on that later.
The most surprising reason Cleveland may take a step back this year is that their starting pitching has (momentarily) dried up. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both legit and the ace argument could be made for either one, but overall this is a rotation built more on reputation than actual merit, with its combined 2022 bWAR of 12.0 ranking fourteenth in baseball, tied with the White Sox. As another point of comparison from a different era, the top four starters for the 2000 Twins posted 15.6 bWAR en route to a 69-win season.
The top two on Cleveland’s staff are amazing and better than anyone the Twins have had since Johan Santana, so don’t confuse my point. But Cal Quantrill is merely a solid number three and was a liability in the playoffs. Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, who both looked like building blocks just a few years ago, have regressed significantly.
“But Cleveland always finds pitching.”
Yeah we’ve all heard that. But if Civale and Plesac are injured or ineffective, expect to see a lot of Konnor Pilkington, Cody Morris and Xzavion Curry to start the year. Morris looked pretty good last year, and they have good prospects coming, led by Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams. But Espino has already sustained a shoulder injury (not his first) and is doubtful to see the majors this year, while a promotion of Williams would be very aggressive. Morris is also battling an injury. In short, there seems to be a gap between what’s here at the big league level and what’s coming in 2024-2025, which is likely why both ZiPS and ESPN rank Cleveland’s starting rotation below the Twins and White Sox for 2023. Yes, you read that right.
As far as the lineup is concerned, the Guardians made a name for themselves last year by spraying the ball around, stealing bases and doing “the little things.” Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Óscar González and Andrés Giménez represent a solid top six, but they aren’t particularly imposing. They did add a couple of bats this offseason in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Bell can hit, and Zunino has a good defensive reputation and impressive power, hitting 31 home runs as recently as 2021. But Bell is also streaky, and Zunino is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, which has killed more careers than torn UCLs lately. The team hit for a 99 wRC+ last year, so I don’t anticipate this turning into some elite offense even if Bell and Zunino have nice seasons.
Frankly, I don’t expect the pitching to do as well, either, even if Zach Plesac is visited by three ghosts and posts a 3.20 ERA in thirty starts. The reason?.
Injuries. Injuries happen to teams. There hasn’t been a team or person in history that has been able to figure out baseball injury prevention, and I don’t think the Guardians are the first. You wouldn’t know it, though. Here’s their injury report for 2022:
Plesac fractured his pinkie punching the mound, missing a month. González missed a month with a strained abdomen. Franmil Reyes missed a month with a strained hamstring. Naylor missed two weeks coming back from his ankle injury in 2021. James Karinchak missed the first few months coming back from a shoulder injury. Luke Maile missed the first couple weeks of the season with a strained hamstring. Austin Hedges missed two weeks with a concussion. Civale did miss three separate months with various maladies. He was able to return and make a start in their elimination game against the Yankees, but that didn’t go great. All of the above were available for the playoffs, even if Civale wishes he wasn’t. The only one who wasn’t was reliever Anthony Gose, who needed Tommy John surgery. His was the only season ending injury. That is also the only carryover injury certain to affect a player’s 2023 status.
That’s it. Cleveland losing Gose was not a major issue for them, as he was a converted outfielder with 27 career innings. 
By contrast, the Twins fell out of the AL Central race while losing nineteen players to season ending injury. Not all of them were crucial, but too many were.
To be clear, Cleveland’s training staff isn’t nineteen times better than the Twins’, and their players aren’t nineteen times less injury prone. They also aren’t nineteen times better at playing through injury, despite what miserable Phil Mackey stans on Twitter might have you believe.
Cleveland was projected for 79 wins last year, but being abnormally healthy has a way of beating projection models. Other highly healthy teams in recent memory? The 2022 Orioles and Mariners, as well as the 2021 Red Sox. Any cinderella-type team usually is accompanied by a lack of IL stints, but as the 2022 Red Sox can attest, that good fortune needs to be supplemented with additional talent or things can go south in a hurry. That’s asking a lot of Bell and Zunino.
As a baseball fan, I hope Cleveland is just as healthy in 2023, because they’re a good product for the sport and their manager is a lovable legend. But a team having its entire squad available minus one fungible reliever in October is unrepeatable, a scenario about as likely as throwing two perfect games. 
The Twins didn’t have enough depth last year and it cost them dearly. But they still somehow came into September tied for first. There is year to year variance and then there is one of the most charmed teams in decades winning the lottery and everyone thinking they earned it. As fun as they are and as good as they look in the long-term, Cleveland will be an afterthought while Minnesota and Chicago battle for the division this year.

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 
3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  
Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 
2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 
1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

How did last season go?
Terrible. After a surprisingly competent showing in 2021, the Motor City Kitties fell back into their typical post-2016 swampy waters, finding themselves stuck in a 66-win quagmire.
It was a puzzling everything-that-could-go-wrong-did type of season. Their big free agent splashes in Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez capitulated; Rodríguez battled personal issues while Báez continued his lifelong struggle with sliders off the plate. A good team could overcome those things, but when mixed with overbearing injuries to young stars and poor play by their top prospects, Detroit’s 11-win slide isn’t much of an Agatha Christie mystery. 
Cruelly, almost any bright spot on the team comes with attached asterisks and lawyers' notes. Tarik Skubal was excellent to start the season, appearing on his way to finally grow into Young Ace territory before Flexor Tendon surgery curtly cut his year short; he will likely start 2023 recovering from surgery. Joe Jiménez figured out that you need to strike people out, not walk them, and limit homers… just to be traded to Atlanta following the season. So it goes. Eric Haase’s continued breakout might be the most notable positive for the team; he’s 30 with a poor glove.
What did they do this off-season?
The Tigers did what all underperforming teams do: tread water on the roster while cleaning up the muck internally. Was Al Aliva the problem? Who knows, but he’s gone, now replaced by former Giants brain man Scott Harris. Was the training staff poor? Maybe, but a clean sweep of the system will now ensure that, if injuries strike again, Detroit will at least have new people they can blame. 
That cleansing may be wise; the Tigers once claimed a hoard of talented pitching prospects—Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo, among others—but one after the other has either underperformed, fell victim of an injury, or faced some combo of the two. Only the aforementioned Skubal has established himself in the majors. That’s not a pattern Detroit can afford to repeat. 
Outside of the Jiménez deal, the Tigers’ most impactful move was sending Gregory Soto and his lethal stuff/minimal control combo to Philadelphia for a haul of fascinating players. Will Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, or Donny Sands be good? Who knows, but parting with a reliever to find the answer to that question is a worthwhile bet. They also brought back the prodigal son, Matthew Boyd, and paid $8.5 million to Michael Lorenzen to pitch a bunch of forgettable innings. 
What should we expect in 2023?
Perhaps it’s the madness of modern life sitting in, but the Tigers might be a compelling bounce-back team. It’s unlikely that the bats will be as historically dreadful as they were at parts in 2022, and their wall-moving project—a tasteful venture, unlike Baltimore's—should improve offense, at least a little bit. If Austin Meadows stays healthy and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene figure out major-league pitching, the lineup could be at least passable. 
The rotation is shakier. Mize is still on the mend after receiving Tommy John surgery, although his contributions were questionable to begin with, and Skubal just began throwing from flat ground. That leaves a strange hodge-podge of uninspiring veterans in Boyd and Lorenzon, rebound candidates in Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull, and Manning’s impossibly low strikeout rate. It’s bizarre; this team is bizarre. They need a solid showing from their Faedos and Joey Wentzs to escape the AL Central doldrums. 
There’s little good news on the prospect front. Keith Law wrote that “[f]rom the 2016 through 2021 drafts, their top three picks by WAR to date are Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize … and John Schreiber, signed for $6,000 in the 15th round. Their international free-agent classes have been totally unproductive. And we haven’t seen many players get better once in the system over the last decade, whether they come in as reasonably polished players or not.” Other than that, things are fine. Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung—brothers in alliteration—pepper the back-end of top 100 prospects lists (so does the other Wilmer Flores, this one a pitcher), but the depth is malnourished, and Detroit lacks the history of identifying and fixing young talent. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are interesting, though. 
Their future appears more unpredictable than Kansas City’s, but their upside could be legit. A.J. Hinch is a more-than-competent manager, and some elusive injury luck could spit out a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but one who could flirt with .500 enough to make the effort seem worthwhile. Hopefully, Miguel Cabrera’s final season isn’t wasted on mediocrity. 

Gilberto Celestino was acquired from Houston in the July 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. The Twins saw a raw but physically gifted outfielder who has steadily made his way up to the majors since. The fact that Celestino was able to do so speaks to his raw athletic ability above all else, as the last few years have included some difficult obstacles. Unfortunately, it appears he’s hit yet another significant roadblock this spring.
Celestino is a tiring topic for many fans. He hasn’t hit at the big-league level and has a history of mental mistakes, which has resulted in him being written off by some despite the fact that he’s still just 24 years old. As with all struggling players, there’s context.
It’s easy to look back and forget that Celestino was promoted directly from Double-A early in the 2021 season. He had played just 21 games at the level. Of course, that was after the 2020 season in which he played no games. And in 2019? He ended that season with eight games at High-A Fort Myers. 
The Twins had a need for center field depth, and Celestino was the best option available. For what it’s worth, he looked every bit the part defensively and has continued to do so. Unfortunately, he paired his defensive value with a .136/.177/.288 slash line in the MLB in 2021, which eventually led to a demotion to his first Triple-A stint. It was then that Celestino flashed his offensive upside, slashing .290/.384/.443. It earned him another shot in the big leagues to begin 2022. He started out hot before falling off a cliff at the plate. In 122 games, Celestino was 18% below the league-average hitter.
Despite his defense remaining pristine, the Twins had made up their mind that Celestino had to try to make up for lost development time not only from his rushed debut but from his missed 2020 COVID season in the minors. They traded for Michael A. Taylor to be the primary rigright-handedckup in center field. It was a welcomed development because of the prospect of Celestino finding his bat again in Triple-A and possibly developing into more of a solid future MLB player. 
Because of the development Celestino clearly needs, his recent injury hurts despite the fact that he had little to no chance to begin 2023 with the Twins. Taylor is a one-year rental and it was likely Celestino would again take over that role in the coming years. While this is still possible, Celestino will be behind to start the season after tearing the UCL in his thumb and likely missing 6-8 weeks. The hits just keep coming for the Twins young center fielder. 
Celestino may very well still play a role in the 2023 Twins season at some point. Injuries or just flat-out performance by the center fielder in St. Paul could force the issue down the stretch. The Twins are still hopeful that he can develop into a quality Major League player, but more seasoning is needed and the recent injury has put the possibility on hold. 
Before looking at his surface numbers and deciding Celestino isn’t a piece of the Twins future, just consider the path he took to get here and how much of a testament it is to his raw talent that he could still right the ship. Here’s hoping that Gilberto Celestino catches a break in 2023.
 

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Today's exclusive Caretaker-only audio content include John Bonnes and Nick Nelson discussing
Louie Varland's rough outing, but why he was encouraged and the feedback that Baldelli gave him afterwards An update on Caleb Thielbar, who we haven't seen in a spring training game Baldelli's thoughts on Jovani Moran's possible bullpen roles, and what he's looking at for the last four spots in the Twins' bullpen. Baldelli dunking on Nick but still revealing some of his thoughts on who could fill the Twins leadoff role. The problems the Twins had with the pitch clock in the game, and an update on whether it'll be used in the WBC. If you're a Caretaker, just scroll down for your exclusive content!
And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right?
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They carefully explain it’s not a mock draft, per se. They aren’t using any intel to try and determine who these teams are taking. They are instead taking on the role of what they would do if they were in these positions.
In this first version, they have the two stud college pitchers (Paul Skenes and Chase Dollander), the best college hitter (Dylan Crews) and the best high school hitter (Max Clark) off the board. This could very well be the reality the Twins face when they go on the clock at pick #5 in July.
In this iteration, Tom Lipari selects TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor for the Twins. Lipari says Taylor is “perhaps the best pure college bat in the country” and that he “will continue to add size and strength with time.”
A left-handed hitting third baseman, Taylor has certainly looked the part in the batter's box in his two-plus years with the Horned Frogs. He has hit at a .324/.457/.577 (1.034) clip in his career including getting off to a blistering .384/.548/.613 (1.161) start through eight games this season. Impressively, Taylor has always walked more than he has struck out. 
The knock on Taylor is that he doesn’t project to have a carrying tool. He may silence some critics, though, if he continues to tear the cover off the ball this spring. And there's been evident improvement already.
It’s not a well-kept secret that the Twins love to draft (and sometimes trade) hitters. Adding another really good hitter to a stable of them provides the depth that all organizations should love.
But who are the Twins passing on?
Taylor isn’t the biggest name (at this point) that was available to them. This scenario would have them passing on Florida OF Wyatt Langford as well as Ole Miss SS Jacob Gonzalez, both of whom could be really good options for the Twins at #5. (You can watch Gonzalez, Ole Miss, and other prospects at this weekend's Cambria Classic at US Bank Stadium.) 
So much can (and ultimately will) change in the next four months. If the draft were today, would you take Taylor?

One of the questions this year was how Jose Miranda would look playing third base everyday. We haven't seen him there. He's been playing regularly in spring training games, but always as a designated hitter. It was revealed by the team on Thursday that he's been dealing with a sore shoulder. After his 1-3 appearance in the Twins' spring training road game at Tropicana Field, he talked to reporters who asked him how serious it is. John Bonnes passes along his reply in this Report from the Fort.
 
mirandashoulderlandscapesound.mp4  
 

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

Andrew Morris signed with the Twins for an even $500,000, slightly under the pick value of $533,300. Morris was a fourth-year senior for the Red Raiders, having transferred after spending his previous three seasons at Division II Colorado-Mesa (the same college as one Sergio Romo). In his final season for the Mavericks, he posted a 2.19 ERA, with a 115:19 K/BB ratio in 78 innings. Clearly too good for the competition, Morris arrived in Lubbock with some buzz attached. 
Scouting Notes
As a 17-year-old freshman at Colorado-Mesa, Morris helped his team reach the Division II National Championship Game. After transferring to Lubbock, Morris slotted into a rotation with Chase Hampton (drafted by the Yankees in the sixth round) and Brandon Birdsell (drafted by the Cubs in the 5th round, and previously by the Twins in 2021).
Morris is 6’0 tall and 195 pounds. He has a "tweener" delivery, operating somewhere in the middle of a three-quarter and over-the-top arm slot with pronounced shoulder tilt. His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization. Morris’s best secondary pitch is a curveball with good vertical break. He used this pitch at Tech as a strikeout pitch but also showed an ability to land it for strikes in the middle of at-bats. Morris features a changeup that has fade but is a work in progress and needs improved command. Finally, Morris has a sweeping slider the Twins will likely work to enhance and develop.
Morris’ unusual mechanics create solid deception in his delivery. He handled the step up in competition well at Texas Tech, striking out 91 hitters in 88 1/3 innings of work against high quality opposition. With a BB% pushing 32%, he’ll need to refine his command significantly if he is going to stick as a starter. Morris has a nice platform, though. A deceptive fastball with good life and a good breaking ball give the Twins clay to mold.
Likely to Start At: Low A Fort Myers
Morris pitched just one professional inning in 2022, a hitless inning in which he struck out a batter for the FCL Twins. He also pitched in one game for Fort Myers in the playoffs, tossing three scoreless innings. It’s likely he spends the majority of 2023 at Fort Myers, getting bulk innings as a starter in his first extended experience of pro ball.
What did you think of the Andrew Morris pick? What do you think his ceiling is with the Twins?
Previous Articles in the Series
Brooks Lee
Connor Prielipp
Tanner Schobel

With not a single reliever added in free agency for the bulk of the offseason, it appeared the Twins were content trusting their internal options for the bullpen on Opening Day. Things have changed, and the Twins have set the stage for a shakeup in the bullpen, at least at the bottom of the depth chart. 
On February 26, the Twins made a pair of prospective additions to the bullpen. In claiming Dennis Santana off of waivers and signing Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal with opt outs, the Twins added a pair of intriguing relief arms to fight for low-leverage bullpen spots. Each is interesting in their own way.
Dennis Santana has bounced around quite a bit for a 26 year old. He does enough well to warrant MLB teams giving him a shot, but has enough warts to have not yet found a long term home. His slider is his primary pitch, and for good reason. The pitch not only allowed an exit velocity of under 85, its 41% whiff rate is dominant. His sinker gets crushed despite sitting in the high 90s and he walks a few too many hitters, but his .7 Wins Above Replacement would put him square in the middle of the Twins 2022 bullpen. It’s easy to see why the Twins would gamble on Santana finally putting it all together.
Jeff Hoffman has never really found success in the MLB but features a high spin fastball and a slider/changeup repertoire to help equalize left and right handed hitters. He similarly walks too many, but based on the raw data on his pitch mix, it’s surprising that he’s never put it all together. He has several opt outs if not added to the MLB roster by certain dates, but can be stashed in Triple-A for a brief period.
The bar to clear for pitchers like Hoffman or Santana to stick with the team on Opening Day likely aren’t high. For starters, the Twins have shown that depth is their number one priority this offseason. So much so that they want MLB caliber players stashed away in Triple-A if possible. The current bullpen includes Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, both of whom have minor league options. It’s possible that regardless of the incumbent’s performances, Hoffman and/or Santana could make the Opening Day roster if they look at all like competent relievers this spring. This would allow the Twins to have options ready to go in Triple-A with MLB experience in the event that things go south early.
Further complicating things is Ronny Henriquez arriving at camp with some troubling arm pain.
Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen, Henriquez was a likely candidate to make the switch in 2023 at some point. If his ability to be on the field is at all in question, it makes sense for the Twins to further insulate their bullpen with viable options in Triple-A. The easiest way to do so would be for Megill or Moran to start the year in St. Paul.
Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others. On Sunday Trevor Megill went out and pitched about as poorly as possible on the same day the Twins added two of his possible replacements. He struggled to throw strikes, and when he did they were crushed. After getting one out on 33 pitches, Megill allowed three walks, three hits, two homers and six runs. If the door to utilize his remaining minor league option was already open, he likely cracked it just a bit more. Megill already finished 2022 on a poor note as he struggled to reign in his new slider. He’ll have to bounce back in his next few spring outings in order to not make the Twins decision too easy.
The odds of a bullpen shakeup have likely increased more than we may have anticipated as the Twins spent most of the winter ignoring the reliever market. With another 40 man roster spot to play with, it’s possible they even make another move to bring in more competition for the bottom of the bullpen pecking order. Either way, there are now a couple more names to keep an eye on this spring, and it’ll be interesting to see who ultimately wins the few jobs that are up for grabs. 
Please share your thoughts on the Twins bullpen options in the COMMENTS below. 

"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. 
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. 
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. 
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. 
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid 
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. 
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. 
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. 
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. 
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season.  Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. 
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. 
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. 
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. 
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.

Entering last season, Jhoan Duran had been a starting pitcher for his entire career. A lengthy injury history made the Twins reconsider his long-term role with the club. He was shifted to the bullpen and became one of the team's most valuable assets. Only some players can be as successful in transitioning to the bullpen, but there are multiple players the Twins may consider shifting to a bullpen role during the upcoming season.
Josh Winder joined the Twins organization as a seventh-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Virginia Military Institute. He made nine starts (38 1/3 innings) in rookie ball after signing and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. During 2019, he spent the year at Low-A and lowered his ERA to 2.65 with a 118-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 2/3 innings. Winder led the Midwest League in ERA and WHIP during the 2019 season. He was putting himself on the prospect map, but then the pandemic took away a season. 
Winder added strength during the shutdown and saw his velocity jump coming into 2021. The Twins had Winder skip High-A coming out of the pandemic, which meant he split time between Double-A and Triple-A. Due to injury, his season started in May, but he dominated for Wichita. In 10 games, he had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 10.7 K/9. The Twins promoted him to Triple-A, but shoulder fatigue ended his season after four starts at that level. It was a disappointing end to what could have been a breakout season. 
Season in Review 2022
Last spring, Winder was in the running to win a spot in the starting rotation before the team signed Chris Archer at the end of March. He still made the Opening Day roster to help add depth out of the bullpen. His first five appearances were strong as he limited the opposition to four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. However, he struggled in his subsequent two appearances and ended up on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement.
He worked his way back to the big-league level, but his shoulder continued to bother him throughout the season. He went on the Triple-A Injury List in July with right shoulder impingement syndrome and didn't throw a bullpen until the middle of August. He returned to the big leagues in September, but the Twins had already fallen out of the division race. Overall, he made 15 appearances with the Twins, and four were out of the bullpen. He posted a 4.70 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 47-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Projections for 2023
Winder is coming off a somewhat eventful off-season. His name popped up in trade rumors because he was the initial trade piece requested by the Royals for Michael A. Taylor. Minnesota balked at that request, and Kansas City lowered its asking price to two relievers, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. Both pitchers are considered relievers, and this might point to the Twins believing Winder can still be an asset as a starting pitcher.
Winder also dealt with shoulder issues as he started ramping up for the season, which means he's a little behind entering camp. Early in his career, Winder's fastball sat in the low 90s, but he averaged 94 mph last season and can hit in the upper-90s. His slider velocity sits in the mid-80s, and he throws this pitch a third of the time. His changeup and curve have helped him to keep big-league batters off-balanced, and his increase in velocity makes those pitches more of a weapon. He pounds the strike zone and limits walks, which can be ideal for a starting pitcher. 
Summary
For 2023, the Twins need to find a way to keep Winder healthy no matter what role he fulfills for the organization.
The Twins have worked to alter his mechanics, but his shoulder has been problematic for multiple seasons. During instructional league play in 2020, his velocity was even higher than what he has showcased in big-league action. These totals were in smaller sample sizes, which might indicate the bullpen being his long-term role. His college experience means he will be 26 years old for the entire 2023 season. Winder will start the year on track to be a starter, but his shoulder concerns mean the team should shift him to the bullpen in 2023. 
Can Winder's shoulder hold up to the rigors of being a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Ronny Henriquez

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list.
Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans.
Tyler Mahle
The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle.
Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. 
Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters.
From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud.
Joe Ryan
After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter.
For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch.
Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well.
Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement.
Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process.
Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent.
“I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.”
“You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” 
 
Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. 
With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. 
But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile?
The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react.
But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. 
Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. 
For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top.

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When baseball people break down pitch types into categories, they tend to use three: fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches. This distinction is decades old, long predating modern, data-centric pitching analysis. It’s a natural one, because it centers on the thing that makes each type of pitch effective: speed, movement, and deception, respectively.
There’s another natural way to subdivide pitch types, though. It’s rarely used, but equally valid, and perhaps more in line with the way we think about the craft in the age of biomechanics and high-speed video. You can separate pitches into three broad, slightly messy, but telling categories:
Those that move to the “arm side”, or in on a same-handed batter: Sinkers and Changeups Those that move to the “glove side”, away from a same-handed batter: Sliders and Cutters Those that move mostly in the vertical plane, with lateral movement mostly incidental: Four-seam Fastballs, Curveballs, and Splitters There are multiple reasons why the taxonomy of pitching has historically favored the first model. For one thing, it’s neater. There are individual examples of pitches within the familiar categories that actually depend on a characteristic other than the one implied by the name of their category for their effectiveness, but they’re rare. The membranes which divide armside, gloveside, and vertical offerings are much more porous. For another thing, pitching (and pitch types, and especially the tendency to classify pitches that walk near a borderline between two possible ones in certain ways) is always evolving, and until relatively recently, breaking things up according to the direction of movement didn’t fit the way most pitching coaches or public commentators thought about things.
Consider the advantages, though. So much about a pitch can be explained by whether it primarily moves to the arm side, the glove side, or vertically. Glove-side movement tends to be hard on same-handed batters, but not opposite-handed ones. Vertical movement creates swings and misses, but isn’t good for managing contact quality or inducing ground balls. Arm-side run is the surest way to generate weak contact, but only misses bats if it comes with some other extraordinary characteristic, and can have wide platoon splits.
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UPDATE: Jon Heyman has reported the terms of Solano's deal with Minnesota.
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with Donovan Solanco on a Major League deal. The particulars have not yet been disclosed, but it should be assumed he’ll make the 26-man roster following an addition to the 40-man. Currently the Twins 40-man roster is full, however, players can be put on the 60-day injured list at this point and that would free a spot. Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are logical options. Looking at Solano, he brings an infield profile to Minnesota. Last season with the Cincinnati Reds, Solano played third, second, and first base. Minnesota would seem to be set in those areas starting Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and Alex Kirilloff. It is possible that Solano could provide insurance at first base, although Joey Gallo represents that as well. Polanco missed significant time with knee tendinitis last year, and that could be part of the equation as well. This offseason, the Twins probably needed to be in the market for a right-handed outfield bat. Solanco doesn’t play the outfield, and even pushing Kyle Farmer there would be a weird fit given his four total Major League innings in the grass. Solano did boast a .309/.380/.568 slash line against southpaws last year.
Last year the Twins rotated through a plethora of designated hitter options. That could again be the way to go this year as Byron Buxton, Polanco, and plenty of others may need time off their feet. Nick Gordon, while he will play multiple positions this spring, is primarily an outfielder. Solano brings a level of redundancy with Farmer, but given that Minnesota acquired him as a baseline shortstop option, regular at bats are something he probably expected.
The deal is pending a physical, and until we see what the financials are, it's hard to understand what level of significance this move takes on. Solano made $4.5 million with the Reds last year but his OPS+ was below league average. It would make sense for the number to check in somewhere around half of that in Minnesota. It's not a bad thing to add this type of depth, and the ability to hit left-handed pitching is something the roster could use more of.
It still stands to reason that there is more to come with this move. Solano may have been a pivot from Yuli Gurriel for the Twins, but his addition to the roster probably pushes outfielder Trevor Larnach down to Triple-A on Opening Day. That's a disappointing reality given he'll be 26-years-old on Sunday and has yet to establish himself in the majors. No injury to Polanco or Kirilloff has been made public, but it has also been notable that the Twins are slow-playing the latter. For now, the Twins have made an addition that certainly changes the roster construction for Rocco Baldelli.
This is yet another reminder that the Twins front office never sees the offseason as over until Opening Day commences. Last season we saw Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker flipped for Emilio Pagan and Paddack. Maybe another bullpen addition is in the cards, and there is no telling as to whether a team meets the Kepler ask or not. For now, there is more talent in Fort Myers than there was at the beginning of the week and Minnesota continues to spend money. Neither of those things are a negative.