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Earlier this week I reported that the Twins were in discussions with the Marlins regarding a trade that focused on Pablo Lopez. While Miami has taken Sandy Alcantara off of the table, they are definitely willing to move Lopez. According to multiple sources, there have been a handful of names discussed and any trade doesn’t appear to be trending toward a 1-for-1 swap.
Without going too deep into the rabbit hole of what may materialize, the biggest piece from the Twins has consistently been focused on Luis Arraez. Miami could use hitting help, and the American League batting champ would fit that bill. Also this week, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that Arraez is certainly available for the right price. Minnesota has a very clear idea of what that is.
Before getting into what Lopez brings to the table, it’s worth considering what the Twins would be giving up in Arraez. At this point he’s a proven commodity that has also very-likely hit his ceiling. That’s not to say the production won’t continue, but his tools don’t project to unveil some new skill we haven’t already seen. He’s a limited defender who is best served not being on his feet every day. At the plate, he’s nearly impossible to strike out, and he’ll generate a high average while showing the occasional pop. All of that is a very valuable player. It certainly will not get anything near a number one or an ace-type pitcher.
There are real questions about how Arraez’s knees will hold up as he ages. Each of the past two seasons he has had injury issues, and he limped towards the finish line in 2022 while battling the nagging injury. He’s a fine, albeit odd, fit at first base. Without much power, he loses significant value if the average ever drops down into the .280 range, and while his on-base prowess will always matter, he doesn’t slug enough to profile as a traditional corner infielder.
Where does that leave the Marlins? Well, at Pablo Lopez.
The Twins goal for the rotation should be to find someone at the level of Sonny Gray or better. Whether you believe Lopez is that guy or not is debatable, but there’s reasons to suggest he is. Lopez owns a 3.52 ERA the past three seasons, and is coming off a year in which he threw 180 innings. His 3.48 FIP suggests there’s no real worry for regression, and he’s been a guy who can average more than a strikeout per inning pitched.
Lopez possesses mid-90’s velocity which should continue to be workable for a guy that is only 26 years old, and his changeup has often proven to be a significant weapon. He posted a career best 12.7% whiff rate last season, and gave up hard contact a career-low 27.5% of the time. Steamer projections have him at a 3.74 ERA and a 2.8 fWAR for 2023, which would be a repeat of his fWAR this season and would’ve been Minnesota’s pitching leader.
It’s not possible to acquire Lopez in a one-for-one swap with Arraez, and with starting pitching so expensive, having the arm under team control through 2024 would be a big get. It remains to be seen if any version of this deal crosses the finish line, but as much as Minnesota would like Carlos Rodon, other avenues may need to be explored.
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