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Jake Cave’s selection to the Opening Day roster may have fans a bit surprised after a career worst 2020 in which he managed a .221/.285/.389 triple slash, good for 18% below league average. He just barely bested Brent Rooker’s spring numbers (.723 OPS vs .712), who many feel has the more exciting bat after his short showing in 2020. Garlick and Rooker in competition can be argued, but Jake Cave being one of the left fielders in the mix is the right choice at this time.
Playing the Matchups:
For as rough as 2020 was overall for Cave, he still held his own against right handed pitching by posting a .235/.303/.420 triple slash and was 4% below league average against right handed pitching. Hovering around league average against righties may not seem all that impressive, but being able to count on that production is actually pretty valuable. For example, Kyle Garlick has been 60% below league average against righties in his short career. Also take into account that 2020 was Cave’s worst year in those matchups by far. In his three seasons as a whole, he’s been 15% above league average against right handed pitching which is pretty incredible. Do we really think that Cave has declined this much against right handed pitching at the age of 28?
Pairing Cave with Garlick can ensure that he avoids his number one weakness being left handed pitching. Plugging him in against only right handed pitching and mixing in Garlick against lefties can go a long way in replacing Eddie Rosario’s bat according to the numbers.
https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1376635566473809925?s=20
Missing the Soft Stuff:
Just about everyone from Jake Cave to Nelson Cruz hit the fastball better than breaking balls and offspeed pitches, but Cave’s performance against the latter in 2020 just didn’t make a lot of sense.
https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1375857016464420865?s=20
Cave had two years of at least getting by before the bottom fell out in about 350 opportunities against these pitches in 2020. For reference, in 2019 Cave saw almost 900 breaking balls and offspeed pitches and performed much better against them. It’s far likelier that Cave was a small sample size victim than it is that he completely forgot how to hit the soft stuff at age 28. Few players can claim to hit these pitches well, but Cave could easily go back to at least scraping by against them in 2021 which would go a long way in a bounceback.
Defensive Value:
Defensive metrics are fluid and a little inconsistent, but it’s safe to say Cave has come a long way since his debut.
https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1375851745977458693?s=20
Cave was always an athletic outfielder with good speed, but he made tons of mistakes in his debut season. What Statcast has noticed in his game across the last three seasons is impressive. His “jump” measures his reaction time on fly balls which was actually better than Byron Buxton’s in 2020 believe it or not. The result was him being in the top 15% of outfielders in “Outs Above Average” which measures how many extra outs a player's defense results in.
It goes without saying that this kind of improvement doesn’t just happen. Cave has worked hard at his position and while that doesn’t mean anything in itself in the MLB, he’s become a great defensive outfielder. Even if his offense can’t fill the Rosario void, Cave’s ability to add value on defense could be higher than Eddie’s ever was.
Nobody is arguing for Jake Cave to be a full on starter, but he’s one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball. For example, the White Sox would likely kill to have a left fielder of Cave’s caliber at this point. In all likelihood, the left field situation will be a platoon until Kirilloff can come up and show he can play everyday. Until then, Jake Cave’s defense and left handed bat are exactly what the Twins need.
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