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After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. 
What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.
Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration
One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?
Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs
Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.
Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential
When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.
Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline
When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.
A Star is Born
While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.
Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. 
One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!
What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.
Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 
But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.
We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.
Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.
Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.
Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.
Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.
THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 
 
Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  
Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.
Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.
It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.
The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.
Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.
Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 
The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 
"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 
They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)
Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.
The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to.
If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well.
Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching.
Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation.
For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow.
You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound.
Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff.
Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost.
Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as.
Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense.

Andrew Morris signed with the Twins for an even $500,000, slightly under the pick value of $533,300. Morris was a fourth-year senior for the Red Raiders, having transferred after spending his previous three seasons at Division II Colorado-Mesa (the same college as one Sergio Romo). In his final season for the Mavericks, he posted a 2.19 ERA, with a 115:19 K/BB ratio in 78 innings. Clearly too good for the competition, Morris arrived in Lubbock with some buzz attached. 
Scouting Notes
As a 17-year-old freshman at Colorado-Mesa, Morris helped his team reach the Division II National Championship Game. After transferring to Lubbock, Morris slotted into a rotation with Chase Hampton (drafted by the Yankees in the sixth round) and Brandon Birdsell (drafted by the Cubs in the 5th round, and previously by the Twins in 2021).
Morris is 6’0 tall and 195 pounds. He has a "tweener" delivery, operating somewhere in the middle of a three-quarter and over-the-top arm slot with pronounced shoulder tilt. His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization. Morris’s best secondary pitch is a curveball with good vertical break. He used this pitch at Tech as a strikeout pitch but also showed an ability to land it for strikes in the middle of at-bats. Morris features a changeup that has fade but is a work in progress and needs improved command. Finally, Morris has a sweeping slider the Twins will likely work to enhance and develop.
Morris’ unusual mechanics create solid deception in his delivery. He handled the step up in competition well at Texas Tech, striking out 91 hitters in 88 1/3 innings of work against high quality opposition. With a BB% pushing 32%, he’ll need to refine his command significantly if he is going to stick as a starter. Morris has a nice platform, though. A deceptive fastball with good life and a good breaking ball give the Twins clay to mold.
Likely to Start At: Low A Fort Myers
Morris pitched just one professional inning in 2022, a hitless inning in which he struck out a batter for the FCL Twins. He also pitched in one game for Fort Myers in the playoffs, tossing three scoreless innings. It’s likely he spends the majority of 2023 at Fort Myers, getting bulk innings as a starter in his first extended experience of pro ball.
What did you think of the Andrew Morris pick? What do you think his ceiling is with the Twins?
Previous Articles in the Series
Brooks Lee
Connor Prielipp
Tanner Schobel

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

Kyle Farmer knew he was going to get traded this past offseason. It was only a matter of where. 
"I'm happy I'm here," he said, looking around the bustling Twins clubhouse ahead of Tuesday's game against Atlanta. 
Maybe a little bit less happy than he was at the time of the move. It's no secret that he loves playing shortstop, where he was Cincinnati's primary starter for most of the past two seasons. Farmer was reportedly "blindsided" when the Reds moved him to third base last August, favoring prospect Jose Barrero at short.
“It sucks,” Farmer said at the time. “I love short. I’ve loved short my entire life. It’s part of the game, I guess, and they see me at third. Hopefully I play well enough to maybe play third here next year.”
Well, Farmer won't be playing third in Cincy this year, but he should see plenty of action there for the Twins. He started at the hot corner against Boston on Monday after making his spring debut at his beloved shortstop in Saturday's home opener at Hammond Stadium. He'll get the nod at second base on Wednesday against the Phillies.
Farmer was lined up as the de facto starting shortstop when the Twins acquired him from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Casey Legumina on November 18th, and as the offseason progressed, it looked increasingly like Farmer would indeed assume primary duties as at least an interim fixture. Free agent shortstop options came flying off the board while Minnesota's pursuit of Carlos Correa appeared doomed.
As it turns out, this pursuit was in fact not doomed. Correa signed with the Twins in January and just like that, Farmer's hopes of a full-time return to the shortstop position were dashed. But for his part, he doesn't express too much consternation about it.
"Love short, love second, and I also love third," he said. "I feel more comfortable playing second probably over anywhere besides short if I had to choose, but third base comes naturally to me too." 
Farmer also has experience at first base, which seems relevant in light of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Kirilloff's situation, but it's clear he fundamentally enjoys playing around the two-bag. "Playing up the middle it’s like, I’m having fun in baseball, it’s not like a job."
 
He will have a job to do for the Twins, and an important one. Farmer has a pretty good idea of how the team plans to use him. 
"Someone needs a day off or a lefty’s pitching or maybe they put me in certain situations but I expect to play all over the infield."
What about the outfield? There's been some chatter about that possibility, given the need for righty-swinging depth in the corner spots, but Farmer's MLB experience in the outfield is extremely scarce, amounting to total four innings in left field back in 2020 and 2021. That said, he's open to the possibility.
"I haven’t done it yet in spring training but that option’s open," Farmer shared. "As long as I’m in the lineup hitting it doesn’t matter where I play defensively."
And that's what it really comes down to: is he hitting? Farmer's strong splits against lefties are an obvious point of appeal after the Twins scuffled versus southpaws last year, but he might struggle to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis if he's not at least holding his own against righties. Last year he slashed just .235/.291/.320 against them.
Offensively, Farmer said he's focused this spring on using his hips and lower body more in his swing, gaining more consistency with his load move. The 32-year-old admitted that as he gets older, it takes him a bit longer to find his timing and get in a groove. Luckily (for him, not us), there's still plenty of spring left.
Under control for two more seasons, Farmer has the ability to impact the Twins in a range of different ways, especially if his work at the plate leads to an improvement upon his sub-par overall career OPS+ of 85. (For comparison, Max Kepler finished at 93 in a career-worst 2022 season.)
One intriguing tool in his defensive versatility kit that hasn't yet been discussed? Farmer originally came up as a catcher, and played more than 80 innings there as recently as 2019. The Twins are a little iffy on catching depth beyond Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, so Farmer's experience there feels somewhat relevant, separating him from your standard "emergency catcher."
To be clear, the Twins are still treating him as such. Rocco Baldelli was assertive in stating that Farmer is only a break-the-glass option as opposed to a third catcher – "He will catch in an emergency and that’s it." Still, it's awfully nice to have someone in that role who is a legit backstop, and it takes away any level of hesitation about carrying only two catchers on the roster, or DH-ing one of Vázquez and Jeffers against lefties.
Compared to catching, Baldelli was a bit less rigid on the idea of Farmer getting some time in the outfield, although it doesn't sound like he's planning around it. 
"I don’t think so," the manager said when asked if he anticipated any appearances from Farmer in the outfield this spring. "We generally will make adjustments the last couple weeks of spring training depending on what the roster looks like or any injury concerns around the team, and then if someone has to get some extra work or go play some positions they haven’t, we’ll do that at that point."
Incidentally, Trevor Larnach was scratched from Tuesday's game with lower-body soreness. Meanwhile, the third baseman Miranda has only been able to play DH so far this spring due to a throwing shoulder issue, and we still have yet to see second baseman Jorge Polanco in a spring game as he works back from a knee injury. Carlos Correa is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut at shortstop on Wednesday, serving as Farmer's double-play partner, but injury concerns will inevitably loom over him and his ankle. As we've discussed, the first base and catcher positions have their own question marks.
Given all of this, it's easy to see how the flexible Farmer – who's been very durable (he would've ranked third on the Twins in plate appearances last year, and fourth in 2021) – is an extremely nice piece of have on hand, with improved offense almost feeling like a bonus on top of what he can provide with his glove all over the field.
For a team that was so often forced to use players out of position or push them beyond their station last year, Farmer is a fantastic roster fit. A floor-raising player like him might not be the most exciting, but following a season where the bottom fell out, it's a vital necessity.

When the Twins signed Donovan Solano to the major-league roster last week, it shuffled things a bit. Nick Gordon is out of options, and the rest of the bench is largely set. Kyle Farmer could find himself as the Opening Day designated hitter, and everything points to Trevor Larnach beginning the season at Triple-A St. Paul.
On one hand, Larnach failing to crack the 26-man roster is representative of depth behind Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. On the other, it’s suboptimal to see a polished college hitter still yet to establish himself in the majors at age-26. The Twins have a concerning string of draft picks, and it starts with Larnach for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
Taken 20th overall from Oregon State during the 2018 Major League Baseball draft, Larnach’s selection was largely rooted in his hit tool. Capable of lots of loud contact, Larnach generates significant bat speed and produces very high exit velocities. He is a guy that should hit for plenty of power, and he doesn’t whiff substantially in doing so. At the big league level, we have seen that, but it has come in short bursts as he has struggled to stay healthy.
Larnach has played just 130 major-league games, and his .687 OPS is not close to what he has flashed in small sample sizes. He did show off his arm in left field last season but then was shelved with a significant core muscle injury. Finding a way to force his addition to the 26-man roster this season is a must, and raking at Triple-A may be a start. To stay there this time, he’ll need to be healthy.
Following the selection of Larnach, 2019 top pick Keoni Cavaco was cut from an entirely different cloth. As a late riser and helium pick, Cavaco may have been a reach at 13th overall. He was a shortstop with tools and projection but potentially wouldn’t stick there. Now 187 games into his pro career, he has missed time with injury, missed a season due to the pandemic, and not produced at all.
Cavaco played the hot corner for Fort Myers last season as Noah Miller took over at shortstop. His .672 OPS across 99 games was a career-high, and he showed some power by hitting 11 homers. His 138/22 K/BB at Low-A doesn’t bode well for his future. Cavaco will likely start at High-A Cedar Rapids this season, but it’s not necessarily production warranted. He still will only be 22 years old, but something has to give in order for this pick to turn in some future promise.
Rounding out the group is another loud college bat, Aaron Sabato. A first baseman at North Carolina, Sabato was taken 27th overall in 2020. Like Larnach before him, the draw was a power bat that produced strong exit velocities. That’s not a skill you can teach, and he did a pretty good job of showing plate discipline as an amateur as well. Unfortunately in pro ball, the wheels have all but fallen off.
Across 210 professional games, Sabato owns an ugly .209/.355/.424 slash line. He has hit for the expected power, and he’s done a decent job drawing walks, but he also punched out 142 times last season in just 103 games at Double-A and lower. The strikeout problems aren’t going to get better as the competition increases, and it’s looked more and more likely that he may only be a designated hitter. Finding a way to show some level of plate discipline could go a long way toward avoiding this being a bust pick. Minnesota didn’t wait around with Brent Rooker, and the results there were much more manageable on the farm.
None of these three players are done with their time in the Twins organization after this year, but what their futures look like could largely be influenced by it. Larnach needs to force his way into a crowded picture, and the pair of Cavaco and Sabato need to show there is a reason why they were taken so high.
Not all first-round draft picks pan out, but Minnesota is definitely eyeing better things from this three-year stretch as soon as possible.

A few times a year, we hit the pause button and take a moment to talk about and reward our most popular community members and the contributions they bring to Twins Daily. During what was (far and away) the wildest Twins off-season of my lifetime, the community exploded with content.
You wrote 123 blogs from when the Astros hoisted a trophy through the day the Twins took that field in their first split-squad games in Florida.
123 blogs. Incredible.
Let’s take a look at some of the other numbers:
During the off-season, 424 people registered to comment on Twins Daily Over that time, 806 unique people contributed content to the site Users started 1,045 topics In those topics, you wrote 26,948 posts In those posts, you awarded 55,357 reactions to other users All of those are record numbers. Every single one. Mind-blowing.
Our most prolific poster was @chpettit19, with @Mike Sixel coming in a close second. Thanks to both of you for your continued quality contributions to the community!
Let’s get to the awards, shall we?
Most Popular Post
The Luis Arraez trade was almost certainly the most controversial of the winter, and @Puckett34’s thoughtful take on the advantages and difficulties of losing a fan-favorite player was the most popular post of the off-season. This award usually goes out to someone who swoops in with the snark, so seeing it go to a serious post is a bit of a surprise. Well done, Puckett34!
We award you a thoughtful and heartfelt prize for your thoughtful and heartfelt take on the trade: a laser-etched wood photo frame of Nickelback lead singer Chad Kroeger holding an autographed Nick Punto baseball card.

Honorary Mention
Losing Carlos Correa to the Mets was the low point of the Twins' off-season. In the thread detailing his surprise signing (not-signing) with the other New York team, @Nashvilletwin wrote what many of us were feeling; baseball is broken, and MLB seems not to care. Unsurprisingly, this post was wildly popular with the Twins Daily community, earning it the second most popular post of the offseason!
Most Popular Blog Entry
From the fan perspective, manager Rocco Baldelli is the most controversial person in the Twins dugout. Where much of the fanbase blames Baldelli for baseball ills that transcend what happens in Target Field, @Nick Hanzlik takes the opposite approach by suggesting Baldelli is the perfect manager for today’s game. Some people agreed, which is why it’s the most popular blog entry of the Twins Daily off-season!
Congratulations, Nick, and for your efforts, you shall be awarded this (not at all garish) limited edition Spring Training 2023 Minnesota Twins bobblehead!

Honorary Mention
Want a surefire way to create conversation? Take Mount Rushmore, add your local sports team, and fire off some opinions. That’s exactly what @Luke Thompson did in writing up a blog about the four players on the Twins’ Mount Rushmore, earning the second most popular blog of the off-season!
As I mentioned earlier, Twins Daily broke every record over the off-season: more users, more comments, more blogs, and more everything. And a big reason for that is the users mentioned above and all of you who comment daily on the site and add your thoughts, insights, and opinions on the Minnesota Twins.
That’s why Twins Daily is the best place to talk Twins baseball. And now it’s time to start watching some baseball and our Minnesota Twins!

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. 
There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring.
His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark.
1: My first impressions of the pitch clock
The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. 
To me it seemed like ... not a big deal?
It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact).
I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 
2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches
Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with.
Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup.
Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well.
3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff
The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways.
Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two.
For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game.
4: Big bases come in handy
The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday.
Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. 
I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last.
5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily
Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. 
There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly.
Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. 
The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). 
On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

According to a tweet from Star-Tribune beat writer Phil Miller, the Minnesota Twins have claimed right-hander Dennis Santana from the Braves. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the Twins have shifted shortstop Royce Lewis to the 60-Day Injured List. 
The 26-year-old from the Dominican has well over three years of service time in the big leagues. Signed by the Dodgers way back in 2013, Santana made his big-league debut for Los Angeles in 2018. He worked 3 2/3 innings in one game. In 2019, he pitched in three games, and in 2020, he worked in 12 games. In 2021, he pitched in 16 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Rangers. He finished the season with 39 games in Texas. Last year, he pitched in 63 games for the Rangers. 
In total, he has pitched 139 big-league innings and has an ERA of 5.12. He has just under a strikeout per inning while walking one every other inning. Therein lies the issue. 
Shortly after the season, he was acquired by Atlanta. 
However, it is important to note that Santana is out of minor-league options. So, he will have to make the Twins roster or be put on waivers in an attempt to keep him in the organization. 
He has a nice pitch profile. Last year, his average fastball was about 97 mph. His big pitch is his mid-80s slider, which he threw about 40% of the time. He also has a decent, 90-mph changeup. 
Again, adding a young guy with a big arm. If needed, he could be DFAd and you hope he stays in the organization. Or maybe Pete Maki finds something to make him a consistent bullpen weapon. 
The addition of Jeff Hoffman is interesting. No, not because he was the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft, but he is a 30-year-old who has spent a lot of time in the big leagues. He pitched in 68 games for the Rockies between 2016 and 2020. He has pitched for the Cincinnati Reds the past two seasons. 
He was a starter earlier in his career, so he's got a full pitch-mix. His fastball averages about 94 and he throws it a lot. He also has a curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s, a low-to-mid 80s slider, and a changeup that he probably throws too hard. 
Feel free to discuss this transaction in the COMMENTS below. 
 
 
 

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 
Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 
Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 
In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 
As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 
This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 
While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 
Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

The Twins faced an early split-squad set of games on Saturday afternoon to kick off the start of their 2023 Grapefruit League season. In the home game, Kenta Maeda returned to the mound after missing the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched a scoreless first inning.
Lineup
The Twins only had two anticipated regular position players in their home lineup: Joey Gallo led off and Max Kepler batted cleanup. However, they also had three other players practically guaranteed (health permitting, knock on wood) to make the 26-man roster: Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Michael A Taylor patrolled center field.
The lineup also included Twins’ top prospects Edouard Julien (Twins Daily’s #5 prospect) and Brooks Lee (Twins Daily’s #1 prospect), who joined the lineup late when catcher Christian Vazquez was pulled from the lineup due to illness.
Maeda’s Return
But the most anticipated Twins player was Maeda. Twins fans had hoped to see him last September, perhaps in a relief role. But as team injuries and the season jointly spun out of control, all parties decided to wait until this spring for his return.
Maeda was greeted rudely by Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe with a double into the gap that went off of Joey Gallo’s glove. The good news? It was on a 90.8 mph fastball by Maeda showing velocity already near to what he threw pre-surgery. Lowe was slo unable to advance from second base, as Maeda escaped the inning on two ground balls and a strikeout, throwing 13 pitches, ten for strikes. That was the end of his day, as planned.
"He was happy with his stuff", Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. "I was happy with his stuff. [Twins pitching coach] Pete [Maki] was happy with his stuff. So a very successful day and one we've been waiting a very long time for,"
The Shift Ban
Both regulars in the lineup for the Twins, Gallo and Kepler, could be positively impacted by MLB’s limitation of “the shift” this year. In the first inning, we got a taste of what we might see. It’s not totally clear the results would have been any different, but both plays likely were completed differently than they would have been.
The new limitation has two parts that could affect left-handed hitters. First, the shortstop can no longer play on the other side (the first base side) of second base. Second, second baseman can no longer play in short right field. He must remain on the infield dirt.
For left-handed pull-hitters, the theory is this could mean more ground balls scooting through the right side of the infield for hits. Alas, that was not the case for Kepler, whose ground ball was fielded by the second baseman to the right of the bag and neatly flipped to the shortstop for a double-play to end the inning. It likely would have been fielded by the shortstop last year, but the double play might not have been as automatic.
On the other hand, Gallo hit a soft line drive to right field over the first baseman’s head for a single. It’s not clear if that result would have been any different had the second baseman been deeper and on the grass – he would have had to range far to his left to get there – but it’s possible. It certainly seem like it would have been fielded by him instead of by the right-fielder.
The next inning, we saw another impact of the new rule. Rays second baseman Vidal Brujan lined up too far over to the left side of the infield. It was called by the umpire, and as a result, the batter – Farmer – was awarded a ball. But with the umpires, players and coaches still working out the communication of the call, it was originally thought that a balk had been called, which would have scored Gallo from third base. After a discussion at home plate with the umpire, he returned to third base and was driven home on a sacrifice fly.
Facing Southpaws
We also got a taste of what we might see when the Twins face left-handed pitching this year. With the exception of Nick Gordon, the Twins entire “bench” is right-handed, and it sounds like Rocco intends to play matchups with them frequently, including in the starting lineup.
It certainly worked on Saturday. The bottom of the lineup featured two non-roster invitees signed as minor league free agents. Switch-hitter Willi Castro is a 25-year-old infielder from the Tigers organization who started at third base. Tyler White, a 32-year-old, who has spent the last couple years in Triple-A, started at first base.
But they looked like All-stars against Rays left-handed reliever Josh Fleming. Castro tripled to deep center and White homered. It blew the game open soon after it started, contributing to a 6-0 lead after just two innings.
The Other Game
Meanwhile, the Twins had another game going on in Sarasota vs the Orioles, with Louie Varland starting. Varland, Twins Daily's #9 prospect, threw two scoreless innings, but things turned sour in the second half of the game and the Twins fell 10-5. Mark Contreras and prospect Kala'i Rosario each homered for the Twins. Nick Gordon started the game with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Austin Martin. It was interesting to note that the Twins had Gordon start at shortstop with Martin at second base. Martin (Twins Daily's #10 prospect) was hit by a pitch in his next plate appearance, but he must have been OK because he stole second base on the next pitch. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (Twins Daily's #11 prospect) went a combined 0-for-5 with a walk and five strikeouts. Aaron Sabato walked three times, and one of the newest Twins prospects, Jose Salas (Twins Daily's #8 prospect) walked twice. Randy Dobnak gave up one run despite two hits and two walks in his two innings of work. 
For the Orioles, Terrin Vavra - the youngest son of former Twins hitting coach and bench coach Joe Vavra - went 2-for-3 with a ground-rule double and a long home run. Curtis Terry, who spent last spring with the Twins, hit a three-run homer off of Brock Stewart. One of Baltimore's top prospects, Heston Kjerstad hit two home runs. Chris Vallimont gave up one run over two innings. Sauk Rapids native Anthony Bemboom started behind the plate for the O's and went 0-for-2. 
Next Up
The team makes a long trek up to Clearwater to play the Phillies on Sunday. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins. The plan is for Jose Miranda to make the trip and hit third as the designated hitter. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee should be in the lineup again, too.

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list.
Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans.
Tyler Mahle
The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle.
Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. 
Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters.
From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud.
Joe Ryan
After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter.
For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch.
Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well.
Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement.
Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

The 2020 season was unlike any other in baseball history on and off the field. Major League Baseball found a way to play a shortened season during a pandemic, but different facets of the game had to be altered. Front offices changed their scouting and development processes because limited high school and college games were played nationwide. Entering the 2020 MLB Draft, the Twins had a late first-round pick, which added even more uncertainty to their selection. 
Minnesota took Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he signed for $2.75 million. The slugging first baseman had spent two collegiate seasons pounding the ball for the University of North Carolina, a strong college team. In 83 games, he hit .332/.459/.698 (1.158) with 31 doubles and 25 home runs. Some evaluators questioned the pick because he was projected to provide little defensive value, which means his bat must produce at a high level. The Twins were betting on his bat, but he hasn’t put it all together in his professional career. 
Sabato spent his first professional season between Low- and High-A. In 107 games, he hit .202/.373/.410 (.783) with 18 doubles and 19 home runs. Most of his offensive damage came following his promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he posted a 1.015 OPS in the season’s final 22 games. Even with college experience, he faced older pitchers in over 69% of his plate appearances. He ended the year on a strong note, so there was some hope for even better numbers in 2022. 
The Twins had Sabato return to Cedar Rapids to start the 2022 season. In 80 games, he hit .226/.351/.448 (.799) with 13 doubles and 17 home runs. Sabato drew 49 walks to help his OBP, but he struck out 111 times in 288 at-bats. He posted a 1.084 OPS in July, so Minnesota promoted him to Double-A. In Wichita, he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition for the first time. His OPS dropped to .688 with nine extra-base hits across 23 games. There were brief signs of his powerful swing, but he lacked the consistency to rank among the team’s top prospects. 
Sabato is going to feel pressure for multiple reasons during the 2023 campaign. College players taken in the 2020 Draft must be added to their club’s 40-man roster next winter to be exempt from the Rule 5 Draft. Unless Sabato has a monster 2023 season, the Twins are unlikely to add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. He turns 24 years old at the beginning of June, and the Twins have other slugging prospects ahead of him on the organization’s depth chart. 
Minnesota will likely send Sabato back to Double-A to start the 2023 season. He has yet to succeed at that level, and that follows a similar development path the team has used with him in his first two professional seasons. The current front office thought highly enough of Sabato to take him in the first round, so they will give him every opportunity to succeed. However, Sabato needs a solid start to the 2023 campaign to insert himself back into the organization’s long-term plans. 
Can Sabato put it all together in 2023? How do you view his ceiling after two professional seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.
You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. 
Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.
"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''
His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. 
Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.
In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.
A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.
Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years
Byron Buxton: 2013-16
Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.
 
 
As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. 
While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.
Fernando Romero: 2017
Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.
Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.
Royce Lewis: 2018-20
When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. 
Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.
Alex Kirilloff: 2021
No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.
 
 
He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. 
Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.
"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."
Austin Martin: 2022
The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.
He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. 
Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. 
At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.
Brooks Lee: 2023
Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.
By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. 
Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.
People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. 
No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.
Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.

The Twins front office started the offseason by dealing Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angeles. Soon after, the traded recent-40-man roster addition Casey Legumina to the Reds for infielder Kyle Farmer. The latter was the likely primary shortstop until the Twins were able to bring back Carlos Correa on a six-year, $200 million deal. That moved Farmer into more of a utility role, able to play all four infield spots, potentially a little outfield, and be the third catcher. Jose Miranda was moving to third base. Jorge Polanco will be at second base. The hope is that Alex Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman.
The infield depth was solid, especially considering Royce Lewis could return to the lineup by mid-summer, about the time that prospects such as Austin Martin and Brooks Lee might be deemed ready for the big leagues. In fact, the front office used that depth to acquire starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Marlins, with a couple of prospects, in exchange for Luis Arraez. 
So, it is certainly intriguing that the Twins would add the 35-year-old Donovan Solano on a big-league deal. 
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The timing is certainly interesting. It could make a logical, overthinker like myself to wonder if there is an injury. Or, could a trade be coming? Those are logical thoughts. It's also possible that they believe that he can play enough places to make himself a solid contributor in a role. 
Let's start by looking back at the career of Donovan Solano to this point. While he's played in the big leagues, maybe some don't follow the National League or teams with homes outside of Minneapolis. 
The St. Louis Cardinals signed him when he was 16 years old in 2004. He remained in their organization through the 2011 season, having spent some time at Triple-A. As a minor-league free agent, he signed with the Florida Marlins. The Marlins called him up in late May and he played in 93 games for them. He topped the 100-games-played plateau in 2013 and 2014 despite playing multiple positions. In 2016, he played in 55 games with the Marlins before being released. He signed with the Yankees for the 2016 season and played in nine games while wearing the pinstripes. In 2017, he spent his whole Age-29 season at Triple-A. The Dodgers signed him in 2018 and he again played in Triple-A. 
He was kind of at a career crossroads. The Giants signed him in 2019 and sent him to Triple-A, but something happened. He got called up and in 81 games, he hit .33 with 13 doubles and four home runs. In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, he hit .326 with 15 doubles and three home runs in 54 games. He won a Silver Slugger Award. 
 
In 2021, he played in 101 games for the Giants and hit .280 with 17 doubles and seven home runs. Last year, he signed with the Reds, and in 80 games, he hit .284 with 16 doubles and four homers. He was a teammate in 2022 with Tyler Mahle and Kyle Farmer. Farmer and Solano both played around the infield for the Reds last year, especially after the team called up Spencer Steer in August. 
While he has played all four infield positions, he has primarily played second base in the big leagues. 368 of his 463 career starts (79.5%) have come at second base. If you've been listening to the Gleeman and the Geek podcast or John's recent Caretaker audio posts, you know that the Twins have said that Jorge Polanco will be brought along slowly and as his knee is ready. Speculation (fair or not) might be that the Twins just want to make sure they have another option there.  
While we don't know the dollars of the deal, it won't be real high. Last year, he made $4.5 million with the Reds. This late in spring training, odds are that you can guess the Twins will play him maybe half of that and possibly provide incentives to it. 
The other side of the transaction is also not yet known. The Twins roster is already at 40 players. To make room for Solano, someone will need to be removed from the 40-man roster. Most likely, the Twins will make room for Solano by placing Royce Lewis (or maybe Chris Paddack) on the 60-Day IL. 
(This post will be updated as we learn more about the transaction.) 
Your turn. Share your thoughts on this free-agent signing. Do you think it's a good move? Do you think it indicates something else? Leave your COMMENTS below.  

Rocco Baldelli was handed a new closer just before Opening Day last season. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took advantage of circumstance to acquire a controllable starting pitching in Chris Paddack. They flipped veteran closer Taylor Rogers as he was coming off of injury and headed to free agency, while also grabbing Emilio Pagan in the process. That’s where the good news ended.
Pagan made his Minnesota debut during Game 3 of the opening series against the Seattle Mariners. That was little more than a mop-up appearance as the Twins trailed 10-4. A couple of days later, he came on against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 1-1 game. After getting through the 7th inning, he walked Mookie Betts to lead off the 8th and was later charged with his first loss. Although the unraveling was on Caleb Thielbar, it was foreshadowing for what would come next.
After recording two saves, Pagan blew his first of the season against the Detroit Tigers on April 26. He went almost a month before blowing his second on May 25 against that same Tigers club. That’s where things went bad. Pagan posted nearly a 12.00 ERA during the month of June, and his 5.79 ERA from July 6 through August 21 wasn’t remarkably better. With plenty of games coming against Cleveland, Pagan sank Minnesota’s hopes of staying in front of the Guardians in the standings.
So why would we expect anything different? Well, clearly the Twins expect something different. It would have been odd for the club to sit by and watch Pagan blow up on a nightly basis only to cut him loose during the offseason. His price tag through arbitration was by no means exorbitant, and it has always been argued that his stuff was well above average. Trying to find a way where tweaks this offseason could help was a must, and that’s where the club appears to have gone.
It’s also not as though Pagan didn’t figure things out down the stretch. Over his final 13 games, a sample of 16 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.16 ERA and 2.99 FIP. His 21 strikeouts were well more than one per nine, although the eight walks in that span still do leave something to be desired. Leading up to his closing stretch, Pagan was throwing a four-seam fastball just under 50% of the time while using his slider roughly 25% of the time. The rest of the repertoire came in the form of a sinker. He was generating a 35% chase rate and strong 14% whiff rate, but also giving up contact 73% of the time.
When things turned for Pagan, Minnesota got him to up the fastball usage to nearly 60% while substantially cutting down both the sinker and slider usage in favor of a curveball. It resulted in decreased contact, higher chase percentages, and roughly even whiff rates. The addition of a new pitch is something that the Twins organization had been looking to impart for months, but needed buy-in from a pitcher that had no real rapport with the team outside of the regular season.
It’s in that where we can find some solace. Getting buy-in to tweak a player’s arsenal is something that happens through trust. Pagan hasn’t been good since his breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has always had the inputs that suggest results should follow. Looking to unlock that is where Minnesota wants to be, and an offseason program in conjunction with Twins staff could help them both to get there.
There is little reason the Twins should enter the season with Pagan in high leverage. Both Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez can handle those innings alongside of Griffin Jax. Pagan can insert himself back into the discussion however, and that’s something he’ll need to earn a right to do. On the flip side, his leash should be short and there is nothing about a $3.5 million salary that will keep Minnesota from avoiding the same fate from a year ago.
I’m not sure if Pagan has truly found it or not, but being prepared to see if he has is something I don’t think Minnesota fans were ready for when the offseason ended.

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

Randy Dobnak was never supposed to make it to the big leagues. His journey began at Alderson-Broaddus University, a Division II baseball program in West Virginia. Despite some impressive numbers, teams didn't draft him after his junior or senior seasons, so he headed to an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. At the time, Dobnak needed to make ends meet and famously drove Uber to help supplement his baseball salary. His Uber driving story followed him as he drove his way into the Twins organization. 
Minnesota signed him for $500 during the 2017 season, and he made six appearances between rookie ball and Low-A. He posted solid numbers (2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but he was older than the average age of the competition at both levels. Dobnak pitched the entire 2018 campaign in Cedar Rapids, but one coach changed his career. Justin Willard (now the Twins Minor League Pitching Coordinator) was the pitching coach at the time, and he suggested that Dobnak start throwing a new sinker. Dobnak used the pitch to skyrocket through the Twins organization in 2019. 
Armed with his new sinker, Dobnak pitched at three different minor-league levels in 2019 before making his big-league debut. In 135 minor league innings, he posted a 2.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He was impressive after his call-up by limiting opponents to five earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. In October, the Twins thrust him into the national spotlight by having him start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. It didn't go well, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits in two innings. Even with a sour ending, it was a tremendous debut. 
It was tough for Dobnak to repeat his 2019 numbers, but he made ten starts in 2020 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Following the season, the Twins signed Dobnak to a five-year extension worth $9.25 million, which includes club options for 2026-28. The deal can be worth nearly $30 million if all three options are exercised. At the time, it was an interesting move by the Twins because Dobnak was going to be under team control for multiple seasons. In hindsight, the deal doesn't look good from the Twins' perspective because Dobnak has been injured over the last two seasons. However, over those two seasons, he made a combined $1.5 million.
Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five. This causes pain and stiffness when he is trying to throw. His rehab process has been frustrating as he attempted to come back before suffering another setback. Dobnak made 11 appearances in the minors last season, but there were some control problems as he learned to pitch through the injury. He posted a 5.8 BB/9, significantly higher than his career average of 2.3 BB/9.
In September, the Twins placed Dobnak on outright waivers to clear his spot from the 40-man roster. His focus for the 2023 campaign is to show he is healthy, and it will be an added bonus if he makes it back to the big-league level. He will start the year at Triple-A, and his pitching repertoire will be altered from what fans have previously seen. His slider and sinker are the two pitches to keep an eye on this spring. Previously, he has thrown his sinker has been his most-used pitch, but that might need to change as he compensates for his injury. His slider was the talk of spring training in 2021 before his finger injury reared its ugly head. Will this pitch be his ticket back to the big leagues?
Do you think Dobnak will return to the big-league level in 2023? What kind of impact can he have on the pitching staff? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 
Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 
Joey Gallo, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 
Trevor Larnach, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 
Jorge Alcala, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 
Jorge Lopez, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 
Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

I'll be honest, it sucks to write articles like these. When analyzing the impact players are likely to have, I much prefer to talk about guys with something to prove performance-wise, because it feels more actionable and controllable.
Alas, it's impossible to talk about this year's team without addressing all of the cascading injury concerns that carry over from a 2022 campaign besieged by heath issues. One of the reasons we've all been so adamantly looking forward to the start of spring training is because we actually get some insight into these players' statuses, as opposed to endless speculating and hoping.
Granted, the insights we're gaining at this very early stage of camp, with players still arriving and settling in, are very limited in their significance. But they're something. And for what it's worth, there's been a considerable amount of reporting and updates around these topics because – like we said – everyone understands the magnitude of importance.
Here's what we we've learned so far about several pivotal players with injury concerns.
Alex Kirilloff
Situation: Kirilloff's rookie season in 2021 was cut short by a wrist injury that required surgery, and his 2022 season was again cut short by issues in the same wrist, requiring a more invasive and serious surgery.
We start with Kirilloff because he is, in my opinion, the single most impactful health question mark for the Twins this year. The variance of outcomes here is wild: Either the second surgery doesn't take and Kirilloff is forever doomed to be a mere figment of his true potential, or he finally gains comfort at the plate and blossoms into the MVP-caliber hitter we've all envisioned.
We're not going to be able to draw any kind of substantive conclusions until Kirilloff actually starts getting some game action and taking competitive swings – even then, we might not know a ton, since he seemed to feel OK around this time last year – but for now, the news is positive. Rocco Baldelli told reporters there was "no setback, no concern" attached to the 25-year-old at this point and he's "probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp."
Even if things are going smoothly, I would expect the Twins to take things very slowly with Kirilloff, holding him out of exhibition contests until there's full confidence he's in a good place. It wouldn't shock me if he was held back from the MLB roster at the start of the season, even without setbacks, to be totally honest. The club seems committed to a very cautious approach in these situations, as we'll see. 
Trevor Larnach
Situation: Larnach's second season in the majors showed the similar promise he showed in his first season, but also ended in injury like his first season. A core muscle strain suffered in late-June required surgery, recovery was slower than anticipated, and then a rehab assignment led to a cascading core injury that ended his season.
Larnach is also looking to establish himself, and also penciled into a big role for the Twins this year. He spent the offseason rehabbing a core injury with input from several doctors and trainers, and reports that he is at 100%, and hasn't even needed to see the trainer this year so far. In addition, the Twins also report him entering camp without any limitations.
Tyler Mahle
Situation: Mahle was plagued by ambiguous shoulder issues throughout the 2022 campaign – described at various junctures as soreness, weakness, and fatigue – and they shut him down shortly after he was acquired by Minnesota at the deadline. 
The unexplained nature of Mahle's 2022 shoulder malady is what makes it so hard to feel confident in a clean rebound. Each time the righty took the mound with diminished velocity and results, he expressed minimal concern. And yet, he threw only two innings after exiting his third Twins start early on August 17th, ending the season on IL.
So far this spring, the vibe around Mahle is very similar: no problems, all systems go. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the 28-year-old felt good enough at season's end to put in work at Driveline, an esteemed performance training center for pitchers.
Much like with Kirilloff, the proof will very much be in the pudding for Mahle. Can he get out on the mound and throw in the mid-90s? Can he sustain that over increasingly long starts this spring? We'll see. But for now, all signs are positive, and customarily chill.
Kenta Maeda
Situation: Maeda missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021, and is now coming back from all the missed time at age 35, with a baseline of only 175 total innings thrown since 2019.
Maeda's inability to make it back onto the mound late last season was largely treated as a formality – the team faded from contention, why bother – but his early comments in camp suggest that he still wasn't feeling ready, one year removed from the surgery. 
The 2020 Cy Young runner-up reportedly threw 40 pitches in the bullpen on Thursday, and indicated that he already felt much better compared to where he was last September.
Topping out at 89 MPH is not a bad sign for Maeda, especially this early in the process. He's less reliant on velocity than Mahle, and in this case the real questions are around stamina and command. We'll have to see how the spring progresses to get a good read on those factors.
Royce Lewis
Situation: Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an offseason ACL tear, then made a brief but electric return to the field last year before re-tearing the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. 
It was a beautiful sight. Eight months removed from undergoing his second reconstructive right knee surgery (with a twist), reporters caught video of Lewis opening up with a relatively high-intensity sprint on the grassy side fields of Lee County Sports Complex.
Lewis still has a long way to go before he's in game shape, and his spring training activity will likely be limited to these kinds of on-the-side rehab drills, but the fact that's running comfortably at this stage is very encouraging. 
The estimated timeline for Lewis to return to the majors is "late June or July," but we'll see if a productive spring revises it on the shorter side.
Chris Paddack
Situation: He looked good in a handful of starts after being acquired from San Diego just before the 2022 season, but tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in mid-May. 
Paddack raised some eyebrows when he told reporters late last season his goal was to return to the mound in August of this year, establishing a notably longer rehab window than the 9-12 months now considered customary for TJ.
Of course, undergoing the operation for a second time already at age 26 casts recovery in a very different light, and in Paddack's case there seems to a special emphasis on taking things slow and steady.
"Because this is his second elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister," wrote Hayes for The Athletic. Indeed, Paddack shared with the beat reporters that with a second surgery, the timetable is generally moved back three months from the first Tommy John surgery. 
In the article, Paddack's quotes gave the impression that making it back at all this year is a stretch goal more than anything. “We made that clear at the beginning of this whole thing is like, ‘Hey, don’t tell me I’m not pitching,’ because I want to have some drive,” he said. “I want to have something to look forward to and then if September rolls around and we’re not ready to go, then we can address that situation when it comes.”
You wonder if the Twins players, coaches, and trainers have basically committed to setting unambitious expectations after a year where every timeline seemed to drag past initial estimates, leading to criticisms being leveled at all parties involved. 
Wouldn't be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change?
Jorge Alcalá
Situation: The hard-throwing righty made two April appearances for the Twins last year before being shut down due to elbow discomfort. The issue was initially deemed minor, but setbacks in recovery led to arthroscopic debridement surgery in August. 
He's been billed as fully healthy coming into spring training and was seen throwing early bullpens with no apparent inhibitions. I'll be curious to see those in-game velocity readings. However, Falvey put Alcala into the category of "starting camp with limitations" meaning they'll be careful in bringing him along slowly.
Randy Dobnak
Situation: Dobnak's Cinderella Story was disrupted by multiple pulley ligament tears in his middle right finger, preventing him from throwing effectively or without pain over the past two seasons. Since signing a five-year contract extension ahead of 2021, he's thrown 50 MLB innings with a 7.64 ERA, and is now off the 40-man roster.
Once viewed as a heartwarming success story, Dobnak has fallen off the radar due to his relentless struggles with a recurring finger injury that wreaks havoc on his ability to execute the trademark slider/sinker combo. He's no more than an afterthought in the Twins pitching plans at this point, but one that's easy to root for.
Phil MIller had a great profile on Dobnak in the Star Tribune, relaying that "his finger, though not as flexible or strong as it once was, has been pain-free all winter." The caveat there looms large, given that Dobnak was a fringy overachieving talent to begin with, but he's proven doubters wrong plenty of times before. 
"I think we're way over the hump now," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine."
Jorge Polanco
Situation: Polanco went on the injured list in late August, and – despite repeated indications that his knee issue was not severe and his return was near – he never made it back before the end of the season.  
Rocco Baldelli was conspicuously reserved when asked to share where things stand with the second baseman. 
"He'll be on a slightly different schedule," Baldelli said. "We'll slowly work him back into all facets of the game ... I think he's going to end up getting a lot at-bats on the back field. I think we're going to keep it controlled for a little while until we cut him loose in these games."
On the other hand, Polanco met with reporters Saturday and said that there is no pain any more in his knee. However, he also admitted that the rehab work this offseason was extensive, that the recovery took more time than he hoped, and that he still needs to be conscious of it both on and off the field to make sure he takes care of it. 
It's likely that the next big step for him will be getting into a spring training game. That will indicate that they trust it enough for him to be full go for defensively.
Byron Buxton
Situation: Buxton was once again plagued by multiple injuries in 2022, costing him almost half the season, and the most significant was a persistent knee issue that required surgery after the season. 
He's the central storyline heading into this season and will be a primary player to follow in coming weeks. Unfortunately, we have the least information so far on Buxton, who arrived in camp on Friday and is just beginning to ramp up this weekend. Falvey address Buxton's condition, saying "There's nothing he's coming in with that's an issue" but also saying it will be a slow ramp up, similar to Polanco. 
It will be interesting to see how he's feeling and how he's moving around as the action picks up. Additionally, how will he be managed? The Twins walk a fine line between ensuring he's fully game-ready by Opening Day, while also limiting his exposure enough to minimize early wear and injury risk.
John Bonnes is in Fort Myers following closely (and I'll be making the trek down there in a week to join him) so stay tuned as we track all of these crucial spring storylines.