ToddlerHarmon

The Twins signed the player who may be the hardest to remember from the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series roster at bar trivia to a minor-league deal. Andrew Stevenson, 28, spent all of his 2022 season at the Nationals Triple-A affiliate, the Rochester Red Wings. He had been removed from their 40-man roster early in the season and was never called back up. 
Stevenson had spent his entire career in the Nationals organization. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and accumulated 449 plate appearances in 248 games from 2017-2021. 
His greatest asset is his defense, but Stevenson has shown flashes of offensive production at times in the minor leagues and in the big leagues. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Stevenson posted a .366/.447/.732 (1.179 OPS), though it was in just 47 plate appearances. 
His 2022 season with the Red Wings was solid. He hit .279/.344/.457 (.801) with 16 home runs and 67 RBI in 135 games for the Red Wings. 
Stevenson’s addition to the Twins organization is great for any pending injuries. However, the possibility of his call-up would likely entail injuries to the other left-handed hitting outfielders including Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras. 
The timing of the signing is interesting. Gilberto Celestino had surgery on his thumb and will miss two months while rehabbing. Plus, the plan was to let him develop in St. Paul this season anyway. Byron Buxton has yet to play this spring. Nick Gordon has been out with a high ankle sprain. Could it mean those players will be out longer than anticipated? Alex Kirilloff has also not played in a spring game yet which might mean that Joey Gallo may find himself at first base early in the season. Providing the Saints with some outfield options is also wise. 
Stevenson will likely receive nearly every day playing time with the Saints. His hitting abilities will be exciting to see against Triple-A pitching. If Stevenson ends up in a game for the Twins, hopefully, it will be due to hitting too well to ignore and not due to injuries. 
While this is just a minor-league signing, what do you think it means? Discuss in the COMMENTS below. 

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 
3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  
Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 
2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 
1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.
This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.
Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.
For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 
The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:
2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3
Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 
The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.
There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 
On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 
Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 
The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 
The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 
Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

In thinking about this year’s offseason, it is no doubt that the Twins have prioritized defense. Beyond the return of Carlos Correa, both Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano bring depth to the left and right of the diamond. But the story doubles in the outfield. Newcomers Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo might struggle at the plate, but both represent major upgrades in their defensive abilities. Although Matt Wallner might look major-league ready, he’ll remain in the minor leagues for now as no deal was enough for the team to part with Max Kepler. Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon might show up, but the depth of the outfield now accounts for injuries. And in recent seasons, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Griffin Jax, and Kenta Maeda have all been near the top of the fly ball list for MLB pitchers. Also, perhaps you have heard of Byron Buxton?
For what it’s worth, Derek Falvey and company have a plan in place. But they could also end up victims of the indifferent baseball gods that may send those balls sailing above their heads.
Ever since 2017, “juiced” balls have been a major topic of conversation within the league with discrepant years. At first, studies by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur demonstrated a clearly new composition within MLB’s baseballs beginning in 2015. Theories about how and why the ball changed only increased with the league’s purchase of Rawlings, the company responsible for the balls in 2018. The Twins, for their part, took advantage in 2019, breaking open the single-season major-league record for home runs, a total that has yet to be topped.
But since 2019, the ball suddenly stopped flying. The shortened season impacted the data in 2020, but it was clear by 2021 that a new baseball was landing dead on the warning track over and over. MLB said nothing. 
This new ball has put a dent in numerous plans. Most teams had begun prioritizing a Three True Outcome approach, which became less useful when that most important outcome—the home run—became less likely to occur. Luis Arraez demonstrated that maybe it was time to go back to an old-school approach. 
MLB finally took responsibility after a notable study by Bradford William Davis and astrophysicist Meredith Wills proved that 2021 featured two different baseballs with different cores, resulting in wildly different results. 2022 went even crazier, as Wills and Davis found three different balls, including a “goldilocks” ball that just happens to appear most often on Sunday Night games and Yankees games, just as Aaron Judge chased his home run record. MLB admitted to the 2021 shenanigans but has forcefully denied the 2022 allegations. 
Whatever it means, the Twins have had to make a guess about how to construct a team for 2023 without any idea what ball might show up. If the ball’s drag keeps it in the park, the Twins will be in luck with a defense ready to shag balls all season long. 
But if the league decides that baseball needs more home run chases, the Twins might find their entire off-season construction to be built for an entirely different game. What’s the point of having an elite defense if all your pitchers do is serve up long balls? 
This is not to fault the organization for choosing such a route. If anything, MLB has refused to share with teams what they might expect from the ball, and their silence on the issue has only fueled conspiracies within the players about how they might be attempting to hurt their free agency. Manfred and company might not exactly know why the balls act the way they do before it is much too late. In 2022, they at least instituted humidors as a mandatory practice for all 30 league ballparks to help create some uniformity. But if they know more about the upcoming ball than teams do, why not let teams and players prepare?
One can at least hope MLB is hoping for a ball that might find some balance. With new rules in place specifically meant to increase “small ball” offense, this is the year to find a ball that might not make it to the seats but at least won’t die on the warning track. And yet, it is hard to believe that MLB has ever had a plan in place. 
The Twins can only pray they get the right balls for this comeback season. It would be a shame for a franchise playing a smart approach to the offseason only to be cooked by a complete disaster of an unknown. Until we get into the season and finally meet the ball, the answer to the Twins’ offseason tactics will remain a mystery.

"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. 
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. 
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. 
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. 
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid 
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. 
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. 
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. 
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. 
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season.  Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. 
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. 
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. 
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. 
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. 
There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring.
His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark.
1: My first impressions of the pitch clock
The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. 
To me it seemed like ... not a big deal?
It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact).
I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 
2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches
Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with.
Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup.
Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well.
3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff
The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways.
Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two.
For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game.
4: Big bases come in handy
The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday.
Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. 
I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last.
5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily
Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. 
There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly.
Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. 
The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). 
On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

According to a tweet from Star-Tribune beat writer Phil Miller, the Minnesota Twins have claimed right-hander Dennis Santana from the Braves. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the Twins have shifted shortstop Royce Lewis to the 60-Day Injured List. 
The 26-year-old from the Dominican has well over three years of service time in the big leagues. Signed by the Dodgers way back in 2013, Santana made his big-league debut for Los Angeles in 2018. He worked 3 2/3 innings in one game. In 2019, he pitched in three games, and in 2020, he worked in 12 games. In 2021, he pitched in 16 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Rangers. He finished the season with 39 games in Texas. Last year, he pitched in 63 games for the Rangers. 
In total, he has pitched 139 big-league innings and has an ERA of 5.12. He has just under a strikeout per inning while walking one every other inning. Therein lies the issue. 
Shortly after the season, he was acquired by Atlanta. 
However, it is important to note that Santana is out of minor-league options. So, he will have to make the Twins roster or be put on waivers in an attempt to keep him in the organization. 
He has a nice pitch profile. Last year, his average fastball was about 97 mph. His big pitch is his mid-80s slider, which he threw about 40% of the time. He also has a decent, 90-mph changeup. 
Again, adding a young guy with a big arm. If needed, he could be DFAd and you hope he stays in the organization. Or maybe Pete Maki finds something to make him a consistent bullpen weapon. 
The addition of Jeff Hoffman is interesting. No, not because he was the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft, but he is a 30-year-old who has spent a lot of time in the big leagues. He pitched in 68 games for the Rockies between 2016 and 2020. He has pitched for the Cincinnati Reds the past two seasons. 
He was a starter earlier in his career, so he's got a full pitch-mix. His fastball averages about 94 and he throws it a lot. He also has a curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s, a low-to-mid 80s slider, and a changeup that he probably throws too hard. 
Feel free to discuss this transaction in the COMMENTS below. 
 
 
 

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

Edouard Julien spent his entire 2022 season with the Wind Surge and posted some great statistics. He hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) in 113 games. 
With these numbers and an even more impressive stint at the Arizona Fall League where he hit .400/.563/.686 (1.248) in 96 plate appearances. His performance in the AFL earned him the league's Breakout Player of the Year Award. 
The growing talent of Julien has been ranked higher on early team prospect rankings, including fifth in the Twins system per Twins Daily. His 2022 season and stint in the AFL has also earned Julien national recognition cracking the number 75 spot on FanGraphs 2023 Top 100 prospects list. While FanGraphs authors Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin listed Julien as a left fielder on the list, it is very unlikely he will play the position this year. 
“Last year, my goal was to be aggressive early in the count,” Julien said to Twins beat reporters Tuesday morning. “And this year is gonna be the same thing. I tried to drive a pitch early in counts and get ahead of the pitcher. If I get a couple of balls on me, I feel like I'm in the driver's seat because he's behind, he's got to throw strikes. And then that's when the OPS number goes up and I get better as a hitter.”
Julien has wasted no time in making more improvements as he arrived in Florida a month ago from Quebec to get to the Lee County Sports Complex as early as possible.
Not only did Julien need a break from the snow to get into his baseball routine, but he will be on Team Canada for the World Baseball Classic. Julien wanted to be as ready as possible to represent his home country on one of baseball’s biggest stages. 
“You get a chance to wear your country in front of your chest, across your chest. It's always a great experience to see old teammates and some guys that you've never played with,” Julien said. 
The one player that Julien is looking forward to playing with for the first time on Team Canada above all others, is Dodgers first baseman, Freddie Freeman. 
“It's gonna be a cool experience to learn from him and see his daily routines and what he does before games every day,” Julien said. 
While Julien has become more aggressive in counts, he still has shown he is willing to work an at-bat into his favor and draw a walk if need be. He drew 98 walks in 508 plate appearances for the Wind Surge and 23 more free passes in 96 plate appearances in the AFL. 
His natural ability to get on base has drawn many comparisons to former Twin Luis Arraez. There have been many fans speculating if he’ll be the guy to replace Arraez’s role in the Twins lineup as the 2023 season progresses. 
In Julien’s own words, there are some similarities that can be seen to Arraez without any direct mention of the former Twin.
“I think my approach was better last year just to be aggressive in counts and when they see that you're aggressive in counts I feel like the pitchers are trying to put you a little bit more because they're scared that you're gonna swing the bat early,” Julien said. 
Where Julien will start his 2023 season in the Twins organization is still uncertain. though it is likely you will see him in a Saints uniform in April. If he performs as well as he did at the AFL in the WBC and spring training, there’s a chance Julien could be on the Twins roster before the month of April is over, although that will be more dependent upon an opportunity opening up in the big leagues. 
What would you like to see from Edouard Julien in the 2023 season? What are realistic expectations for the Canadian who speaks three languages - French, English and Spanish - fluently? 

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list.
Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans.
Tyler Mahle
The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle.
Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. 
Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters.
From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud.
Joe Ryan
After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter.
For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch.
Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well.
Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement.
Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman has reported the terms of Solano's deal with Minnesota.
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with Donovan Solanco on a Major League deal. The particulars have not yet been disclosed, but it should be assumed he’ll make the 26-man roster following an addition to the 40-man. Currently the Twins 40-man roster is full, however, players can be put on the 60-day injured list at this point and that would free a spot. Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are logical options. Looking at Solano, he brings an infield profile to Minnesota. Last season with the Cincinnati Reds, Solano played third, second, and first base. Minnesota would seem to be set in those areas starting Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and Alex Kirilloff. It is possible that Solano could provide insurance at first base, although Joey Gallo represents that as well. Polanco missed significant time with knee tendinitis last year, and that could be part of the equation as well. This offseason, the Twins probably needed to be in the market for a right-handed outfield bat. Solanco doesn’t play the outfield, and even pushing Kyle Farmer there would be a weird fit given his four total Major League innings in the grass. Solano did boast a .309/.380/.568 slash line against southpaws last year.
Last year the Twins rotated through a plethora of designated hitter options. That could again be the way to go this year as Byron Buxton, Polanco, and plenty of others may need time off their feet. Nick Gordon, while he will play multiple positions this spring, is primarily an outfielder. Solano brings a level of redundancy with Farmer, but given that Minnesota acquired him as a baseline shortstop option, regular at bats are something he probably expected.
The deal is pending a physical, and until we see what the financials are, it's hard to understand what level of significance this move takes on. Solano made $4.5 million with the Reds last year but his OPS+ was below league average. It would make sense for the number to check in somewhere around half of that in Minnesota. It's not a bad thing to add this type of depth, and the ability to hit left-handed pitching is something the roster could use more of.
It still stands to reason that there is more to come with this move. Solano may have been a pivot from Yuli Gurriel for the Twins, but his addition to the roster probably pushes outfielder Trevor Larnach down to Triple-A on Opening Day. That's a disappointing reality given he'll be 26-years-old on Sunday and has yet to establish himself in the majors. No injury to Polanco or Kirilloff has been made public, but it has also been notable that the Twins are slow-playing the latter. For now, the Twins have made an addition that certainly changes the roster construction for Rocco Baldelli.
This is yet another reminder that the Twins front office never sees the offseason as over until Opening Day commences. Last season we saw Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker flipped for Emilio Pagan and Paddack. Maybe another bullpen addition is in the cards, and there is no telling as to whether a team meets the Kepler ask or not. For now, there is more talent in Fort Myers than there was at the beginning of the week and Minnesota continues to spend money. Neither of those things are a negative.
 

MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.
You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. 
Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.
"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''
His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. 
Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.
In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.
A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.
Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years
Byron Buxton: 2013-16
Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.
 
 
As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. 
While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.
Fernando Romero: 2017
Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.
Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.
Royce Lewis: 2018-20
When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. 
Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.
Alex Kirilloff: 2021
No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.
 
 
He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. 
Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.
"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."
Austin Martin: 2022
The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.
He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. 
Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. 
At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.
Brooks Lee: 2023
Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.
By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. 
Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.
People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. 
No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.
Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.

Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process.
Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent.
“I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.”
“You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” 
 
Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. 
With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. 
But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile?
The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react.
But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. 
Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. 
For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top.

Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? 
To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten.
10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV
9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV
8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV
7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV
6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV
5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV
Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider.
4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV
Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 
3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV
Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball.
2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV
Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 
1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV
Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. 
Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below!

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

Rocco Baldelli was handed a new closer just before Opening Day last season. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took advantage of circumstance to acquire a controllable starting pitching in Chris Paddack. They flipped veteran closer Taylor Rogers as he was coming off of injury and headed to free agency, while also grabbing Emilio Pagan in the process. That’s where the good news ended.
Pagan made his Minnesota debut during Game 3 of the opening series against the Seattle Mariners. That was little more than a mop-up appearance as the Twins trailed 10-4. A couple of days later, he came on against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 1-1 game. After getting through the 7th inning, he walked Mookie Betts to lead off the 8th and was later charged with his first loss. Although the unraveling was on Caleb Thielbar, it was foreshadowing for what would come next.
After recording two saves, Pagan blew his first of the season against the Detroit Tigers on April 26. He went almost a month before blowing his second on May 25 against that same Tigers club. That’s where things went bad. Pagan posted nearly a 12.00 ERA during the month of June, and his 5.79 ERA from July 6 through August 21 wasn’t remarkably better. With plenty of games coming against Cleveland, Pagan sank Minnesota’s hopes of staying in front of the Guardians in the standings.
So why would we expect anything different? Well, clearly the Twins expect something different. It would have been odd for the club to sit by and watch Pagan blow up on a nightly basis only to cut him loose during the offseason. His price tag through arbitration was by no means exorbitant, and it has always been argued that his stuff was well above average. Trying to find a way where tweaks this offseason could help was a must, and that’s where the club appears to have gone.
It’s also not as though Pagan didn’t figure things out down the stretch. Over his final 13 games, a sample of 16 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.16 ERA and 2.99 FIP. His 21 strikeouts were well more than one per nine, although the eight walks in that span still do leave something to be desired. Leading up to his closing stretch, Pagan was throwing a four-seam fastball just under 50% of the time while using his slider roughly 25% of the time. The rest of the repertoire came in the form of a sinker. He was generating a 35% chase rate and strong 14% whiff rate, but also giving up contact 73% of the time.
When things turned for Pagan, Minnesota got him to up the fastball usage to nearly 60% while substantially cutting down both the sinker and slider usage in favor of a curveball. It resulted in decreased contact, higher chase percentages, and roughly even whiff rates. The addition of a new pitch is something that the Twins organization had been looking to impart for months, but needed buy-in from a pitcher that had no real rapport with the team outside of the regular season.
It’s in that where we can find some solace. Getting buy-in to tweak a player’s arsenal is something that happens through trust. Pagan hasn’t been good since his breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has always had the inputs that suggest results should follow. Looking to unlock that is where Minnesota wants to be, and an offseason program in conjunction with Twins staff could help them both to get there.
There is little reason the Twins should enter the season with Pagan in high leverage. Both Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez can handle those innings alongside of Griffin Jax. Pagan can insert himself back into the discussion however, and that’s something he’ll need to earn a right to do. On the flip side, his leash should be short and there is nothing about a $3.5 million salary that will keep Minnesota from avoiding the same fate from a year ago.
I’m not sure if Pagan has truly found it or not, but being prepared to see if he has is something I don’t think Minnesota fans were ready for when the offseason ended.

Randy Dobnak was never supposed to make it to the big leagues. His journey began at Alderson-Broaddus University, a Division II baseball program in West Virginia. Despite some impressive numbers, teams didn't draft him after his junior or senior seasons, so he headed to an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. At the time, Dobnak needed to make ends meet and famously drove Uber to help supplement his baseball salary. His Uber driving story followed him as he drove his way into the Twins organization. 
Minnesota signed him for $500 during the 2017 season, and he made six appearances between rookie ball and Low-A. He posted solid numbers (2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but he was older than the average age of the competition at both levels. Dobnak pitched the entire 2018 campaign in Cedar Rapids, but one coach changed his career. Justin Willard (now the Twins Minor League Pitching Coordinator) was the pitching coach at the time, and he suggested that Dobnak start throwing a new sinker. Dobnak used the pitch to skyrocket through the Twins organization in 2019. 
Armed with his new sinker, Dobnak pitched at three different minor-league levels in 2019 before making his big-league debut. In 135 minor league innings, he posted a 2.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He was impressive after his call-up by limiting opponents to five earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. In October, the Twins thrust him into the national spotlight by having him start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. It didn't go well, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits in two innings. Even with a sour ending, it was a tremendous debut. 
It was tough for Dobnak to repeat his 2019 numbers, but he made ten starts in 2020 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Following the season, the Twins signed Dobnak to a five-year extension worth $9.25 million, which includes club options for 2026-28. The deal can be worth nearly $30 million if all three options are exercised. At the time, it was an interesting move by the Twins because Dobnak was going to be under team control for multiple seasons. In hindsight, the deal doesn't look good from the Twins' perspective because Dobnak has been injured over the last two seasons. However, over those two seasons, he made a combined $1.5 million.
Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five. This causes pain and stiffness when he is trying to throw. His rehab process has been frustrating as he attempted to come back before suffering another setback. Dobnak made 11 appearances in the minors last season, but there were some control problems as he learned to pitch through the injury. He posted a 5.8 BB/9, significantly higher than his career average of 2.3 BB/9.
In September, the Twins placed Dobnak on outright waivers to clear his spot from the 40-man roster. His focus for the 2023 campaign is to show he is healthy, and it will be an added bonus if he makes it back to the big-league level. He will start the year at Triple-A, and his pitching repertoire will be altered from what fans have previously seen. His slider and sinker are the two pitches to keep an eye on this spring. Previously, he has thrown his sinker has been his most-used pitch, but that might need to change as he compensates for his injury. His slider was the talk of spring training in 2021 before his finger injury reared its ugly head. Will this pitch be his ticket back to the big leagues?
Do you think Dobnak will return to the big-league level in 2023? What kind of impact can he have on the pitching staff? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

I'll be honest, it sucks to write articles like these. When analyzing the impact players are likely to have, I much prefer to talk about guys with something to prove performance-wise, because it feels more actionable and controllable.
Alas, it's impossible to talk about this year's team without addressing all of the cascading injury concerns that carry over from a 2022 campaign besieged by heath issues. One of the reasons we've all been so adamantly looking forward to the start of spring training is because we actually get some insight into these players' statuses, as opposed to endless speculating and hoping.
Granted, the insights we're gaining at this very early stage of camp, with players still arriving and settling in, are very limited in their significance. But they're something. And for what it's worth, there's been a considerable amount of reporting and updates around these topics because – like we said – everyone understands the magnitude of importance.
Here's what we we've learned so far about several pivotal players with injury concerns.
Alex Kirilloff
Situation: Kirilloff's rookie season in 2021 was cut short by a wrist injury that required surgery, and his 2022 season was again cut short by issues in the same wrist, requiring a more invasive and serious surgery.
We start with Kirilloff because he is, in my opinion, the single most impactful health question mark for the Twins this year. The variance of outcomes here is wild: Either the second surgery doesn't take and Kirilloff is forever doomed to be a mere figment of his true potential, or he finally gains comfort at the plate and blossoms into the MVP-caliber hitter we've all envisioned.
We're not going to be able to draw any kind of substantive conclusions until Kirilloff actually starts getting some game action and taking competitive swings – even then, we might not know a ton, since he seemed to feel OK around this time last year – but for now, the news is positive. Rocco Baldelli told reporters there was "no setback, no concern" attached to the 25-year-old at this point and he's "probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp."
Even if things are going smoothly, I would expect the Twins to take things very slowly with Kirilloff, holding him out of exhibition contests until there's full confidence he's in a good place. It wouldn't shock me if he was held back from the MLB roster at the start of the season, even without setbacks, to be totally honest. The club seems committed to a very cautious approach in these situations, as we'll see. 
Trevor Larnach
Situation: Larnach's second season in the majors showed the similar promise he showed in his first season, but also ended in injury like his first season. A core muscle strain suffered in late-June required surgery, recovery was slower than anticipated, and then a rehab assignment led to a cascading core injury that ended his season.
Larnach is also looking to establish himself, and also penciled into a big role for the Twins this year. He spent the offseason rehabbing a core injury with input from several doctors and trainers, and reports that he is at 100%, and hasn't even needed to see the trainer this year so far. In addition, the Twins also report him entering camp without any limitations.
Tyler Mahle
Situation: Mahle was plagued by ambiguous shoulder issues throughout the 2022 campaign – described at various junctures as soreness, weakness, and fatigue – and they shut him down shortly after he was acquired by Minnesota at the deadline. 
The unexplained nature of Mahle's 2022 shoulder malady is what makes it so hard to feel confident in a clean rebound. Each time the righty took the mound with diminished velocity and results, he expressed minimal concern. And yet, he threw only two innings after exiting his third Twins start early on August 17th, ending the season on IL.
So far this spring, the vibe around Mahle is very similar: no problems, all systems go. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the 28-year-old felt good enough at season's end to put in work at Driveline, an esteemed performance training center for pitchers.
Much like with Kirilloff, the proof will very much be in the pudding for Mahle. Can he get out on the mound and throw in the mid-90s? Can he sustain that over increasingly long starts this spring? We'll see. But for now, all signs are positive, and customarily chill.
Kenta Maeda
Situation: Maeda missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021, and is now coming back from all the missed time at age 35, with a baseline of only 175 total innings thrown since 2019.
Maeda's inability to make it back onto the mound late last season was largely treated as a formality – the team faded from contention, why bother – but his early comments in camp suggest that he still wasn't feeling ready, one year removed from the surgery. 
The 2020 Cy Young runner-up reportedly threw 40 pitches in the bullpen on Thursday, and indicated that he already felt much better compared to where he was last September.
Topping out at 89 MPH is not a bad sign for Maeda, especially this early in the process. He's less reliant on velocity than Mahle, and in this case the real questions are around stamina and command. We'll have to see how the spring progresses to get a good read on those factors.
Royce Lewis
Situation: Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an offseason ACL tear, then made a brief but electric return to the field last year before re-tearing the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. 
It was a beautiful sight. Eight months removed from undergoing his second reconstructive right knee surgery (with a twist), reporters caught video of Lewis opening up with a relatively high-intensity sprint on the grassy side fields of Lee County Sports Complex.
Lewis still has a long way to go before he's in game shape, and his spring training activity will likely be limited to these kinds of on-the-side rehab drills, but the fact that's running comfortably at this stage is very encouraging. 
The estimated timeline for Lewis to return to the majors is "late June or July," but we'll see if a productive spring revises it on the shorter side.
Chris Paddack
Situation: He looked good in a handful of starts after being acquired from San Diego just before the 2022 season, but tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in mid-May. 
Paddack raised some eyebrows when he told reporters late last season his goal was to return to the mound in August of this year, establishing a notably longer rehab window than the 9-12 months now considered customary for TJ.
Of course, undergoing the operation for a second time already at age 26 casts recovery in a very different light, and in Paddack's case there seems to a special emphasis on taking things slow and steady.
"Because this is his second elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister," wrote Hayes for The Athletic. Indeed, Paddack shared with the beat reporters that with a second surgery, the timetable is generally moved back three months from the first Tommy John surgery. 
In the article, Paddack's quotes gave the impression that making it back at all this year is a stretch goal more than anything. “We made that clear at the beginning of this whole thing is like, ‘Hey, don’t tell me I’m not pitching,’ because I want to have some drive,” he said. “I want to have something to look forward to and then if September rolls around and we’re not ready to go, then we can address that situation when it comes.”
You wonder if the Twins players, coaches, and trainers have basically committed to setting unambitious expectations after a year where every timeline seemed to drag past initial estimates, leading to criticisms being leveled at all parties involved. 
Wouldn't be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change?
Jorge Alcalá
Situation: The hard-throwing righty made two April appearances for the Twins last year before being shut down due to elbow discomfort. The issue was initially deemed minor, but setbacks in recovery led to arthroscopic debridement surgery in August. 
He's been billed as fully healthy coming into spring training and was seen throwing early bullpens with no apparent inhibitions. I'll be curious to see those in-game velocity readings. However, Falvey put Alcala into the category of "starting camp with limitations" meaning they'll be careful in bringing him along slowly.
Randy Dobnak
Situation: Dobnak's Cinderella Story was disrupted by multiple pulley ligament tears in his middle right finger, preventing him from throwing effectively or without pain over the past two seasons. Since signing a five-year contract extension ahead of 2021, he's thrown 50 MLB innings with a 7.64 ERA, and is now off the 40-man roster.
Once viewed as a heartwarming success story, Dobnak has fallen off the radar due to his relentless struggles with a recurring finger injury that wreaks havoc on his ability to execute the trademark slider/sinker combo. He's no more than an afterthought in the Twins pitching plans at this point, but one that's easy to root for.
Phil MIller had a great profile on Dobnak in the Star Tribune, relaying that "his finger, though not as flexible or strong as it once was, has been pain-free all winter." The caveat there looms large, given that Dobnak was a fringy overachieving talent to begin with, but he's proven doubters wrong plenty of times before. 
"I think we're way over the hump now," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine."
Jorge Polanco
Situation: Polanco went on the injured list in late August, and – despite repeated indications that his knee issue was not severe and his return was near – he never made it back before the end of the season.  
Rocco Baldelli was conspicuously reserved when asked to share where things stand with the second baseman. 
"He'll be on a slightly different schedule," Baldelli said. "We'll slowly work him back into all facets of the game ... I think he's going to end up getting a lot at-bats on the back field. I think we're going to keep it controlled for a little while until we cut him loose in these games."
On the other hand, Polanco met with reporters Saturday and said that there is no pain any more in his knee. However, he also admitted that the rehab work this offseason was extensive, that the recovery took more time than he hoped, and that he still needs to be conscious of it both on and off the field to make sure he takes care of it. 
It's likely that the next big step for him will be getting into a spring training game. That will indicate that they trust it enough for him to be full go for defensively.
Byron Buxton
Situation: Buxton was once again plagued by multiple injuries in 2022, costing him almost half the season, and the most significant was a persistent knee issue that required surgery after the season. 
He's the central storyline heading into this season and will be a primary player to follow in coming weeks. Unfortunately, we have the least information so far on Buxton, who arrived in camp on Friday and is just beginning to ramp up this weekend. Falvey address Buxton's condition, saying "There's nothing he's coming in with that's an issue" but also saying it will be a slow ramp up, similar to Polanco. 
It will be interesting to see how he's feeling and how he's moving around as the action picks up. Additionally, how will he be managed? The Twins walk a fine line between ensuring he's fully game-ready by Opening Day, while also limiting his exposure enough to minimize early wear and injury risk.
John Bonnes is in Fort Myers following closely (and I'll be making the trek down there in a week to join him) so stay tuned as we track all of these crucial spring storylines.

Torvald Carlsson spends his days curating a formidable collection of Minnesota sports memorabilia. The retired Scandia educator counts a row of seats from the old Met Stadium, a signed Bernie Bierman football, and an original George Mikan Minneapolis Lakers jersey as his most prized possessions. His newest acquisition might be his most unique one yet.
“I was browsing eBay the other day and saw that they put the entire Bally Sports North network up for auction,” said Carlsson. “I don’t really need it, but at $37.50 I figured why the heck not. And now I guess I own the gosh darned thing.”
Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports North and 18 other regional sports networks, recently skipped a $140 million interest payment, signaling that bankruptcy could soon be imminent. A spokesperson confirmed that Carlsson was on the path to being BSN's new owner, but refused to say if the online auction was part of the company’s plan to recoup needed funds. 
Meanwhile, the new owner of the network that brings Twins, Wild, and Timberwolves games to Minnesota cable subscribers says he has no big plans to change anything for now.
“It’s a whole deal,” said the 71-year-old. “Keeping track of the day-to-day is a real humdinger, I don’t suppose I’ll be a part of that. They just sent me a whole bunch of papers in the mail and (former Twin and current BSN analyst) Tim Laudner is sleeping in my driveway. Ma (Carlsson’s wife Gail) brings him some supper and that seems to settle him down some.”
While a lot of logistical questions remain unanswered (“I guess Glen Perkins needs a food taster on all road trips due to his long list of enemies and rivals,” said Carlsson), Bally employees are hopeful this leads to better days at the company.
“I’m optimistic,” said Dick Bremer, longtime play-by-play voice of Twins. “Ever since Bert (Blyleven, Bremer’s former broadcast partner) retired, I’ve lost weight, I sleep through the night without crying, and no one has taped a ‘FART MASTER’ sign to my back. Not once. They can pay me with pizza crusts and expired Marlboro Miles. I truly don’t care. I am the happiest man in the world.”
Image license here. 

For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately.
Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting.
Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out.
It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities.
The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least.
The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition.
It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever.
The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation.
Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen.

Let’s first start by relieving pressure from new trainer Nick Paparesta. I don’t think anyone in the Twins organization views him as a savior of sorts, but there is no denying that his addition comes on the heels of a 2022 that saw a ridiculous amount of injury. Introducing new training techniques, the hope for Minnesota would be that players remain on the field more.
No one is more important in that endeavor than Byron Buxton.
On April 7, the Twins seventh game of the season in 2022, Buxton led off the game with a double against the Boston Red Sox. When sliding into second base, he jammed his knee, pounded his fist, and it looked as though his season may be over. Surprisingly, he missed just six games and returned on April 21 against the Kansas City Royals. Two days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he was 4-for-4 with a homer and looked like a superhero. The problem was that he never felt the same.
Routinely, Buxton found himself on the trainer’s table. He was getting fluid drained from his knee frequently. There was fear of infection. There were countless hours of rehab. In short, the superstar from Baxley, Georgia, was doing his best impression to look like the Superman from Smallville, Kansas.
From the point  he injured the knee against the Red Sox through his ultimate shutdown in August, Buxton played 85 games for the Twins. A good portion of those came as a designated hitter, attempting to keep his bat in the lineup while removing some pressure from his legs. Unfortunately, that also substantially saps the value such a great defender brings to the field, and Buxton had to feel less than ideal by providing only half of his value.
Getting into a total of 92 games last season, something Buxton noted as the most he’s played in since 2017, the Twins saw him produce 4.0 fWAR. On a per game basis, he has been right there with the likes of Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, or Paul Goldschmidt. The question for years has not been whether the talent was real, but how often it could matter.
Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide. A hit by pitch shouldn’t always break a hand, and a dive forward into grass shouldn’t always result in a concussion. There was a time that Buxton’s style of play put him in harm's way, but even there Minnesota has worked to keep their talent healthy. Looking at projections for the upcoming season, Fangraphs’ Steamer has Buxton launching 32 homers across 130 games. Last season, he put up 28 in just 92 games. ZiPS projections have the Twins centerfielder at 22 home runs, but that system has him registering just 90 games. The total could conceivably be somewhere in the middle, but if Buxton plays anywhere close to 130 games, he may double the 3.6 fWAR seen for him in that time by Steamer.
As a whole, baseball does a poor job marketing its stars. Trout is hidden in Los Angeles as is his teammate Shohei Ohtani. The East Coast teams often get their due, and Mookie Betts has recently been the darling of the Dodgers. Although Minnesota will never be on that level, for Buxton to be in any national conversations, he must remain on the field. Fans wanting to see what that looks like over a near-162 games could be treated to something special.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put a strong foot forward for Rocco Baldelli with this club. Carlos Correa is here to stay. Byron Buxton being healthy and amazing is something everyone is waiting to present itself.

Black baseball existed separately from white baseball back in the early 1900s, mainly at the regional level. Twin Cities businessman Phil "Daddy" Reid met future Hall of Famer and founder of the first professional league for African-American players, the National Negro League—Rube Foster. The two formed a friendship that led Reid to start his own ball club.
This club, however, would not be a regional team, gathering players from around the Twin Cities. Instead, Reid wanted to build a team that could compete with the best teams in the Midwest, so he hired Walter Ball to scout the country to find the best players willing to relocate to Minnesota. Many of these players had recently been released by the Leland Giants of Chicago, a team recently taken over by Rube Foster.
Among those players were team captain George Taylor and pitcher Clarence "Dude" Lytle, who led the team to astounding success. Although reports differ, the team played approximately 110 games that year with a winning percentage of around 85%, including a stretch of 36 consecutive wins. 
The team played any challengers willing to take them on, whether Black or white, including the St. Paul Saints of the American Association. Foster himself—a great pitcher who earned his nickname "Rube" after besting the legendary Rube Waddell in a 1903 exhibition—took the mound for the Gophers in the deciding game of the series against the Saints. Roster rules were a bit laxer in those days (except for the whole not-allowing-Black-players-to-play thing).
Foster would return again in 1908 to pitch for the Gophers in a game against the Hibbing Colts, throwing a no-hitter. The team brought in a few notable full-season players, including George "Rat" Johnson (he also went by "Chappie"; please, George, save some good nicknames for the rest of us) and Bill Gatewood, who joined Lytle in the rotation. The team experienced similar levels of success, winning about 75% of their approximate 120 games, though they did lose their season series to the Saints.
The Gophers were reaching the peak of their popularity. Teams from around the Midwest were lining up to take their shots at beating the juggernaut of a team—and paying good money to Daddy Reid for the privilege of losing to them, more often than not. The club also drew large crowds at their game, but not just because of their ability.
At that time, Minnesota was 0.3% Black, and although the percentage was higher within the Twin Cities, many people had never seen a Black man, let alone a Black ballplayer. Some of these players had parents who were born in slavery. There was a novelty to the game, and although the players were not allowed in "organized baseball," the average person wanted to watch these young men play.
In 1909, the team continued to grow, as the Gophers and Foster's Leland Giants took a scouting trip into the South to find adding star brothers "Candy" Jim and "Steel Arm" Johnny Taylor and a three-fingered pitcher named Julius London. Also among those joining the team that year were a spit-baller named Archie Pate, veteran Bill Binga—a defect from the cross-town rival Minneapolis Keystones—and Minnesota legend Bobby Marshall.
That year, the St. Paul Colored Gophers, at the pinnacle of their talent and popularity, would take on their greatest challenge yet—the Leland Giants. Since Foster's control of the team began, the Giants had been widely regarded as one of, if not the best, colored baseball teams in the country. Behind Foster on the mound, the team was nigh unbeatable.
The series was to be five games, held in St. Paul, with the winner declared as the "Black National Champions," as proposed by Foster. There was no tournament to be played, just the team widely considered the best in the country, squaring off against one of the most popular teams in the area. Notable and respected people from Chicago made the trip by train to see the two talented teams face off.
Unfortunately, the Gophers could not use Foster as a ringer for this series. Fortunately, he did not pitch for the Lelands, either. The series went all five games, and the Gophers clinched the series in a nail-biting 3-2 Game Five victory. Foster, always gracious in defeat, was quoted saying, "No man who ever saw the Gophers play would think of classing them world's colored champions or would think the playing ability of the other teams was very weak."
The Giants handily won Game 2 and Game 3 by scores of 8-1 and 5-1, but the Gophers' wins came in 10-9, 4-3, and 3-2 games, meaning the Giants outscored the Gophers 26-19. (Of note, the Gophers won Game 1 on a walk-off home run by St. Paul's Bobby Marshall, who would go on to become the NFL's first Black player.) Still, Foster's calling the games "exhibition contests" after the fact was probably a bit too far. Arguably the greatest player to don a Colored Gophers jersey became the team's most prominent critic.
Other teams around the country also objected to the Gophers being declared Black National Champions—given that there was no tournament or governing body. Still, such was the state of baseball at the time. Eleven years later, Foster would go on to found the Negro National League, the first step in officially organizing Black baseball. In the meantime, if Major League Baseball was crowning a World Champion every year while preventing Black players from playing, maybe the term had no meaning anyway.
The Colored Gophers would play the 1910 season before many of their key contributors moved on. In 1911, the team played under the name Twin Cities Gophers, then the St. Paul Gophers in 1913, and the Minneapolis Gophers in 1914 and 1916. Daddy Reid died of a heart attack in 1912, combined with the difficulty keeping young men in the Twin Cities, opposed to other, more favorable, US cities. The organized Negro Leagues were beginning, but an official team never laid roots in Minnesota.
Between the 1920s and 1950s, when the Negro Leagues ceased to exist, Black teams called the Gophers popped up in the Twin Cities from time to time, though none as successful or long-lasting as Daddy Reid's club. Still, notable players would come to the Twin Cities to play against the Gophers, such as Ted "Double-Duty" Radcliffe in 1942, who earned his nickname by pitching in one game of a doubleheader and catching the other.
Like many similar teams at the time, the Colored Gophers ended with a whimper, but they were instrumental in furthering the game. They brought Black baseball players from around the country to build a talented and entertaining team in Minnesota. Their existence was intimately tied to one of the most significant figures in baseball history, the Godfather of the Negro Leagues, Rube Foster. One of the biggest plays in their history was courtesy of the first Black player in the NFL, Bobby Marshall. And they were champions.