Twins Trade Candidate: Max Kepler

f course it all depends on the return but now is the time if we can get a decent return.  I like the idea of signing Haniger to get a RH OFer.  We have Larnach / Wallner, and Kirilloff from the left side.  I like the odds of filling the role between the three of them.  I am still ticked off they took Cavaco is team of Corbin Carroll who debuted this year and would be the perfect complement to this team given Buxton's injury history.  He had a wRC+ of 133 in his 1st 32 games and he is a great defender.  We would be in a great position to deal Kepler had they drafted Carroll.

With the crutch of injuries sunk the 2022 season. My guess is they'll hold onto him till the trade deadline.

But if a package that fills the shortstop, catcher position or better yet a high end starting pitcher they may move him based on greater needs elsewhere. Any one of the Yankees, Marlins and Padres look like a good fit for a trade partner.

How much can we get for a defensive replacement type fielder?  I’ve said it before, Billy Hamilton can do what Kepler does for league minimum. We will be unable to get a ML player for Kepler even up. Having good defensive “metrics “ at the 2nd least important position isn’t going to bring anything back.  Maybe a former prospect that hasn’t so far panned out…

Like everyone else is saying, I don't see them getting value return. He needs to get back to swinging at first pitch strikes like he did in '19. 

His contact is team friendly and until these others can prove their ability to stay healthy, we kind of need him out there. 

Kepler has worn out his welcome as a hitter who doesn't make adjustments  ( mostly because Rocco bats him 4th and he doesn't belong there in the batting order  )  ...

His defense is another matter  and is definitely above average and keeps him in the lineup   ...

He has value in a trade but just how much I can't speculate  , there are suckers born every minute , trade him ...

"Minnesota isn't forced to trade Kepler, but this front office has touted its creativity regarding roster creation." Cody Christie

Huh? You mean the Twins penchant for acquiring broken-down pitchers in exchange for some of our better prospects? That creativity?

Max is one of my favorite players on this current Twins team.  But I'm frustrated by his lack of adjustment offensively.  He is still a positive trade value and all you need is one trade partner to make something happen.  Weitz41 has identified three teams that could have interest.  I'd add Colorado to that list.  Certainly if I'm talking to Miami I'm angling for starting pitching.  The Marlins have tremendous pitching depth at the major league level as well as in the minors.  

It's also clear to me that SOMETHING has to give when you have Max, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner all left-hand hitting outfielders on a roster that desperately needs a RH bat in the mix.  

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

Wherever he lands I hope he gets back to pulling the ball more. I think his attempt to make adjustments has led to more ground balls. While he is pulling the ball less he is also hitting it on the ground more often. He needs to go back to pulling the ball and get a greater launch angle.

Love Max - one of my favourite Twins. But he doesn’t appear to be an ascending player at this point. Instead, the hitting data would suggest the opposite.  Max trade value for Max is probably more near term than mid-term. Pull the trigger on a trade, redeploy the capital, and provide space for the new young core. The old young core - Kepler, Sano, Polanco, and Berrios - will likely all be gone by the trade deadline at the latest.

Leider Max, aber es ist Zeit “Auf Wiedersehen” zu sagen. Viel Glueck mein Freund.

Why did it seem like Kepler was unhappy the last year? No idea but his body language and facial expressions were definitely not one of a guy who enjoyed his job. Does this matter at all?

The crux of the matter remains whether any other team finds Kepler (or any Twin) appealing and potentially useful and worthy of acquiring via a trade. TD went over this same question last year and Miami was a prime contact suggestion.

The Twins could use a RH bat for the corner outfield and have some LH bats (others too) that they could give up. The Twins need to find out if Miami or Colorado, for example, have any interest in Kepler, etc. 

Maybe the Twins need to find out what state Kepler is in mentally too.

I'm hopeful that Kepler rebounds with two years that eclipse anything he has accomplished thus far in his career. 

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

$34M value the past two years, seriously? His defense is good and he takes a lot of walks, but he was atrocious at the plate for long stretches of time, lost most of his HR power, and kept hitting into the shift. I had high expectations for Max and he's been a perennial disappointment since 2019. If a team is high on him and offers a substantial package I'd move him, but I would expect they hold onto him for one more year. Perhaps his numbers improve with the shift limitations, but he will be another year out of his prime too.

1 hour ago, gman said:

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

They will do that in Spring Training and the Minors, NOT in the Majors where Wallner has already shown his fielding stinks.

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

I was looking at that earlier today (Kepler's trade value on BTV) The Rockies just never seen to follow the crowd, so I doubt they'll trade either no matter how bad the contracts are. Bryant isn't someone I considered. There's a lot to like there if he stays healthy and plays LF. BUT. Colardo is like a magic 8 ball when it comes to players and contracts..Not sure what to make of them.

Yeah, I threw Bryant out there because we REALLY need a RH bat and he would be a perfect fit in LF for the Twins.  But whoah baby, that contract is ridiculous!  How much would Colorado pay ?  I would really only consider Bryant if Correa leaves and the Twins add someone like Kiner-Falefa, a great glove, versatile at several positions, but not much more than a #9 hitter.  

I would keep Max and get a right handed hitting corner outfielder. I would make him compete for playing time with Wall er and Larnach and I would also make him the backup CF. My logic is there is far too great a chance that Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff will either be hurt or ineffective. Gordon is my backup and Celestino spends the year in St Paul preparing for next year. 

39 minutes ago, Linus said:

I would keep Max and get a right handed hitting corner outfielder. I would make him compete for playing time with Wall er and Larnach and I would also make him the backup CF. My logic is there is far too great a chance that Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff will either be hurt or ineffective. Gordon is my backup and Celestino spends the year in St Paul preparing for next year. 

I agree with you except Wallner will  be in AAA and Larnach is the big question.

If the Twins pay Correa more than they have already agreed to then they will suffer the consequences when they cant sign other needed help. One player, even that good, cannot win titles alone. Correa is too expensive to break the budget for. 

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

I've recommend CO before &  I had basicly traded Kepler for  Marquez at BTV. I like Kepler and IMO Kepler could revitalize his career in Coors Field. I think Marquez could flurish here away from Coors. FO will have to sell the deal but I believe everyone could come out ahead in that deal.

Trade him to Colorado so he can win a batting title like Morneau and Cuddyer.

8 hours ago, gman said:

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

The new Jake Cave?

I thought it could be interesting to trade him to the Rays for Manuel Margot. He's RH and a good fielder but underwhelming at the plate just like Kepler. The Rays want to add more lefties to their lineup. The Twins need more offense vs LHP.

He is still as good or better than what we trotted out in 2022. If I was a team outside, and was moving an "expensive piece" (shortstop, catcher, rotation arm) I would probably take a gamble of Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino or Wallner if I could pry them from the Twins...even before one year an an option on Kepler. 

Yes, Kepler has clearly shown what he could do.

If he wasn't injured, I kept thinking the Twins might've dealt him at the last trade deadline...except everyone else was on the list. And since he didn't finish the season, we were stuck with Garlick.

You mean all those young outfielders who can't stay healthy?  I remember a couple years back when we jettisoned Eddie Rosario rather than pay him a similar number.  LF has been a revolving door ever since and we haven't sniffed the post-season.   But sure, let's double down.

52 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You mean all those young outfielders who can't stay healthy?  I remember a couple years back when we jettisoned Eddie Rosario rather than pay him a similar number.  LF has been a revolving door ever since and we haven't sniffed the post-season.   But sure, let's double down.

Since we "jettisoned" Rosario he has been below replacement level.  Please enlighten us as to how it was a mistake to jettison a replacement level player.  The premise we would have a shot at the post season had we kept a guy that performed worse than the players that replaced him is ridiculous.

I expect the Twins will keep him one more year. He'll benefit now that the shift is limited, though why players are too stultified to beat shifts I've never understood. Bunt the damn ball when they shift! His defense helps the pitchers, especially if Buxton in center can stay healthy. The only thing that falls is rain. Of course, as so many of you have speculated, there's no reason why the Twins can't entertain offers if they let it be known he's available for the right player(s). Some teams with sterling hitting coaches might take the bait in the hope that they can transform him into what he was for one, glorious, pre-contract-extension season. 

I like Kepler and hope the Twins keep him. But I would be curious as to how many hits any batter has lost to the shifts over the past 2-3 years and I hope the scouts are looking at this going into next year. A .220 hitter might get up to .250 since there won't be a shift anymore. Does this apply to Kepler? However, if he has some value that we can get a decent reliever for him, then I'd say bye-bye.