The Mad King

According to a tweet from Star-Tribune beat writer Phil Miller, the Minnesota Twins have claimed right-hander Dennis Santana from the Braves. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the Twins have shifted shortstop Royce Lewis to the 60-Day Injured List. 
The 26-year-old from the Dominican has well over three years of service time in the big leagues. Signed by the Dodgers way back in 2013, Santana made his big-league debut for Los Angeles in 2018. He worked 3 2/3 innings in one game. In 2019, he pitched in three games, and in 2020, he worked in 12 games. In 2021, he pitched in 16 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Rangers. He finished the season with 39 games in Texas. Last year, he pitched in 63 games for the Rangers. 
In total, he has pitched 139 big-league innings and has an ERA of 5.12. He has just under a strikeout per inning while walking one every other inning. Therein lies the issue. 
Shortly after the season, he was acquired by Atlanta. 
However, it is important to note that Santana is out of minor-league options. So, he will have to make the Twins roster or be put on waivers in an attempt to keep him in the organization. 
He has a nice pitch profile. Last year, his average fastball was about 97 mph. His big pitch is his mid-80s slider, which he threw about 40% of the time. He also has a decent, 90-mph changeup. 
Again, adding a young guy with a big arm. If needed, he could be DFAd and you hope he stays in the organization. Or maybe Pete Maki finds something to make him a consistent bullpen weapon. 
The addition of Jeff Hoffman is interesting. No, not because he was the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft, but he is a 30-year-old who has spent a lot of time in the big leagues. He pitched in 68 games for the Rockies between 2016 and 2020. He has pitched for the Cincinnati Reds the past two seasons. 
He was a starter earlier in his career, so he's got a full pitch-mix. His fastball averages about 94 and he throws it a lot. He also has a curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s, a low-to-mid 80s slider, and a changeup that he probably throws too hard. 
Feel free to discuss this transaction in the COMMENTS below. 
 
 
 

The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. 
Pitchers
Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. 
Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. 
Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role?
Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns.   
Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins.  
Position Players
Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career.
Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. 
Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons.
Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. 
Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field.  
Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 
 

Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster. 
Presumed Starter
Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training. 
Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season. 
Other First Base Options
Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023. 
Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options.
Offensive Potential
Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful. 
Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist. 
The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side. 
If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

MLB teams need players to fit different roles on the roster, from the big bat off the bench to a fireman reliever out of the bullpen. Jorge Polanco is entering his tenth big-league season, and he has quietly become one of Minnesota’s most consistent presences in the line-up. Multiple traits make Polanco underrated as he has developed into one of baseball’s best second basemen before entering his age-29 season. 
Minnesota originally signed Polanco as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in a strong signing class that included Max Kepler and Miguel Sano. Kepler and Polanco agreed to contract extensions leading into the 2019 season to add to their years of team control. He signed what turned out to be a very team-friendly deal for five years and $25.75 million. There is a vesting option for 2024 ($10.5 million) if he reaches 550 PA in 2023. Minnesota also holds a $12 million team option for 2025, with escalators based on All-Star Games, Silver Sluggers, and Gold Gloves. He’s earned over $18.3 million in his career, but his value to the Twins has been much higher than his earnings. 
Polanco has outperformed his contract nearly every season since becoming a big-league regular. He was limited to 104 games last season, and FanGraphs pegs his value at $14.6 million. His best season was the 2021 campaign when he provided 4.2 WAR, which equals $33.4 million in value. In 2019, he was the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game, and he was worth $26.2 million. Overall, he has been worth 13.9 WAR and $111.3 million. 
Every winter, MLB Network ranks the top players at each position. Polanco improved by one spot in the rankings, moving from seventh to sixth overall. Fans did not think as highly of Polanco as he didn’t make the top-10 fan list from MLB Network, with players like Ozzie Albies and Jazz Chisholm Jr. jumping over him into the list. Polanco isn’t a household name, so it’s easy to see why he might be forgotten about in fan voting. 
Among AL second basemen, Polanco has the third-highest WAR over the last two seasons behind Jose Altuve and Marcus Semien. He ranks sixth among all second basemen in the same period. Altuve is the only second baseman with a higher wRC+ over the last two years. Last season, he ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in xwOBA, Barrel %, xSLG, Chase Rate, and Sprint Speed. His best category was BB%, as he ranked in the 98th percentile after drawing a career-high 64 walks. He is clearly among baseball’s best second basemen in many offensive categories. 
Defensively, Polanco struggled in 2022, but a knee injury might have impacted his defensive value. Only three AL second basemen ranked lower than Polanco according to SABR’s Defensive Index. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 14th percentile for Outs Above Average and in the 25th percentile for Arm Strength. It will also be interesting to see how MLB’s shift rules impact his defensive value. Defensive metrics have been hard to trust the past couple of seasons, with the second baseman regularly standing in shallow right field. His ankle and knee issues may have slowed him down, which might impact his defensive value without being able to play on the grass. 
Polanco missed the last month of the season after a knee injury, but the team is reporting that he should be ready for spring training later this month. Minnesota also has multiple top prospects behind Polanco on the second base depth chart. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien , and Austin Martin look to impact the roster in 2023, and second base might be their path to playing time. If Polanco’s injuries reemerge, the Twins might turn the position over to a younger player. 
Since the start of 2019, only Byron Buxton has provided more value to the Twins than Jorge Polanco. Some fans might have yet to fully appreciate that value, which is one of the biggest reasons he is underrated. Do you feel Polanco is an underrated player? Is he the most underrated player on the Twins roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

The human brain is fantastic, but it doesn't have the power to consider everything. For example, before you read this sentence, you ignored that you could see your nose. Your mind had been ignoring that because it's not essential.
Cognitive psychologists refer to our brains' shortcuts as heuristics or cognitive biases. There's nothing wrong with them, but they're important to remember. They play a part in the way we watch sports.
There are popular shortcuts that many people know about, such as anchoring, where we tend to base our opinions on something more in a first impression than information we learn later. I won't name names, but some schmucks may still think Miguel Sanó could be an MVP based solely on his 2015 rookie campaign.
Confirmation bias leads us to latch on to evidence that supports our preconceived notions over evidence against them. Perhaps another person supports their disdain for Miguel Sanó because of his many strikeouts, ignoring his 500-foot moonshots.
If this stuff interests you, check out this very approachable list of a few dozen different biases and heuristics). There's a well-known bias that explains what I'm going to discuss, so I'll dip into developmental psychology for this discussion.
Two episodes from the last year or so stand out to me when I think about how our brains consume sports, not so much because of what happened, but because of people's reactions.
1. After a disappointing 73-89 2021 season, owner Jim Pohlad gave the front office an A+ grade. 
2. During the 2022 season, the Twins were not completely transparent about Byron Buxton 's schedule as he worked through knee pain.
In both episodes, fans and media were in the streets wailing and gnashing their teeth. Both instances were frustrating, but were they worth the consternation they received?
One of the points in an infant's growth that developmental psychologists have identified is the development of object permanence. If you've ever played peek-a-boo with an infant, you will have seen it in action. When the adult's face hides behind the hands, then reappears, the infant gets excited because, before the face reappears, they didn't think it existed anymore.
Infants struggle to understand that things they don't see can still exist. It is a bit wild to think about. Sometimes I'm, as an adult, convinced that I don't own buffalo sauce until my wife points out the bottle in the fridge and the bottle next to it from the last time I didn't think we had any.
But enough about buffalo sauce, how does object permanence pertain to what I'm talking about here?
In the first example, many fans took Jim's comments to mean that he genuinely had no issues with how the season went and was perfectly pleased. Because this was, for the most part, the amount of information fans had to go off of, it seemed like his complete thoughts on the topic.
We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that.
Instead, we latch on to the soundbite and forget that the group is constantly communicating for the other 364 days a year, working toward their shared goals. Because we don't see it, though, it doesn't exist.
Please don't read this as me saying that there shouldn't be criticism of the group. We sometimes pay too much attention to the tiny bits of interaction with which we are privileged.
The second example, regarding Bryon's knee, is a bit more egregious. Following his knee flair-up in Boston last April, his presence in the lineup was a bit scattershot, which was obviously frustrating for fans—if for no other reason than that fans want to see the best players play.
However, there was a common attitude that Byron's seemingly haphazard presence in the lineup was evidence that there was "no plan" for him to play. Why? Because the team did not make any statement on his status on a day-to-day basis.
In reality, the team was monitoring his knee and its pain and range of motion daily—adjusting whenever needed. It makes sense that no team personnel would make an official statement regarding his expectations because the situation was developing.
This lack of information led some fans to see the handling as incompetent, and they believed that the team lacked a plan for getting him back out there.
Instead, behind the scenes, Buxton spent hours every day working on getting his body ready to compete. His situation was fluid, and the team was adapting to new information daily. But we, as fans, had no explicit information telling us this, so instead, because we couldn't see it, our brains told us that nothing was happening.
Perhaps there's an argument that teams should be more forthcoming with information so that fans can make more informed reactions. Still, we would have blind spots that our brains would fill in.
It's important to remember that pro sports are filled with professionals working full-time jobs. The people on the other side of the glass spend their entire days making decisions about the team that we watch for four hours a day with a rain delay. They want to win more than you want them to (with minimal exceptions).
If we fall into the trap of believing that what we see in press conferences or public statements is the entirety of the situation, our opinions can become relatively uninformed.
Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening.

Devin Smeltzer operated in the most thankless of MLB roles: a Triple-A swingman. Always relied upon when the inevitable pitcher injury bug struck but never promised a spot with the big club. He was meant to be discarded, called up to soak innings, before heading back to St. Paul with a major-league paycheck in his pocket as a reward for his troubles. MLB playing time is better than slumming it in the minors, but the mental drain involved in bouncing between teams takes a toll. 
It almost never happened. A tumor discovered as a child threatened Smeltzer’s life—not just his playing career. Stricken with a terrible sickness, Smeltzer found solace in baseball, making trips to Citizens Bank Park to watch an elite Phillies team on the rise. Among stars like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Jimmy Rollins, Smeltzer picked out Chase Utley—Philadelphia’s all-around offensive threat, capable of reaching base while slugging at a rate typically unheard of for second baseman—as his favorite player. They met, and an unlikely relationship blossomed.
Now healthy and pitching well, a 20-year-old Smeltzer found himself drafted by the Dodgers—the team that now employed Utley. They met again in Spring Training in 2018.
A mid-season trade brought Smeltzer to the Twins that year. With a better chance to crack a weaker Twins rotation than the stacked Dodgers, Smeltzer debuted in 2019 with an unforgettable start.
The stats could speak for themselves: Smeltzer challenged a playoff-bound Brewers team, one led by reigning MVP Christian Yelich, and dominated. Six innings, seven strikeouts, and no earned runs constituted one of the finest debuts a pitcher can have, but the numbers barely matter; the spectacle of watching Smeltzer—someone who once struggled with cancer at an age intended for carelessness—pitch at the major league level was enough to move every person in the ballpark. Jack Morris could barely speak. 
Smeltzer tossed 49 innings for the 2019 Twins but spent the next two seasons on the outskirts, consistently passed over as Minnesota looked elsewhere for pitching help. 
A bevy of injuries created an opportunity for Smeltzer in 2022. With plentiful openings in the rotation, Smeltzer collected 12 starts, accruing 70 1/3 frames for a team in desperate need of them. He was a godsend. 
But the life of a pitcher on the fringes isn’t a kind one. Fresh out of minor-league options, the Twins saw no need to keep Smeltzer around, jettisoning him to open waters for another team to swipe up. The Marlins did just that.
It could be easy to paint Smeltzer’s career in broad strokes. His fastball wasn’t perfect—he could use a few more ticks—and his breaking ball wasn’t ideal—he had trouble getting lefties out—but doing so would be a disservice. Smeltzer was dutiful, consistent. When Minnesota needed innings, he was there, able to gobble frames while the team shifted around paperwork, searching for long-term solutions to their problems. Objectified for his availability, not his performance, Smeltzer served his role well. 
Not all players are legends; not all Twins are classic. Between the Joe Mauers and Kirby Pucketts—and even the Matt Guerriers—stands an army Devin Smeltzers, players whose contributions may be easy to miss, but are necessary nonetheless. 
Miami’s plans for him are unclear; the team enjoys a ransom of pitching riches—with one fewer arm, as of late—making chances for Smeltzer to crack their rotation difficult. But he’s faced obstacles before. Biding time is a small ask for someone with Smeltzer's fortitude.
 
 

Joe Ryan seems like a cerebral individual, especially regarding the art and science of pitching. 
"I love talking pitching," Ryan told Fangraphs.com's David Laurilia in April. "I love messing around with the baseball, manipulating it in the dugout, just getting that feel. Then I get back on the mound with all of that. It's a good time."
"Messing around with the baseball" makes it sound like his pitches happen by a cosmic accident, but as you can glean from his back and forth with Laurilia, Ryan's approach is far from accidental. He cites vertical approach angle and horizontal break, reviewing video of his recent outings and those of his high school days when he pitched from a higher arm slot (he tried to emulate Tim Lincecum). While there is some experimentation in pitching, Ryan's practice is very much deliberate. 
Ryan was a unicorn in that his fastball, while thrown at a very average velocity, piled up swinging strikes at the rate of a much harder thrower. As I detailed after he arrived in 2021, Ryan's low arm slot and riding fastball were thrown at the upper third of the strike zone, turning hitters into pretzels. 
Since the dawn of baseball, hitters have minced fastballs thrown inside the zone. If you look at all the right-handed pitchers who made ten or more starts last year, Joe Ryan's fastball had a 16.8% swinging strike rate inside the strike zone. Ryan is out on the mound chucking very average velo fastballs and getting professional hitters to miss at a very high clip (10% is league average). He was 8th overall in that category – outpaced by names like Jacob DeGrom, Spencer Strider, and Hunter Greene but ahead of fastball luminaries like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
Unicorn fastball, indeed. 
Ryan's biggest challenge was pairing an equally impressive secondary pitch to keep hitters from solving his fastball. Through his minor league experience, he was lauded for his fastball and curveball while his slider and changeup were considered incomplete. The Twins, however, have embraced the slider and have outfitted or improved many of those offerings in recent years. 
When describing his slider's profile early in the 2022 season, Ryan told Laurilia that he thinks "more cutter with it [as opposed to] creating a slider" as he throws it.
Cutter movement is beneficial because it is thrown firm and has later movement. MLB's average horizontal cutter movement is 3.0 inches (-3.0 for right-handed pitchers). That's what Ryan's slider was for the majority of the season.
But suddenly, in September, it was not. 
The shape or Ryan's slider change, and one can see that both statistically and on pitching break charts, and he had some other important changes, too. We would love for you to become a Caretaker so you can dive into that detail here. We can't pay writers enough to do that kind of deep dive just using ad revenue, so we reserve it for the Caretakers that support it.  
If you read Twins Daily, well, daily, maybe it's time to become a Caretaker. You'll love it. You'll get more meaty stories like this, plus get perks like Winter Meltdown tickets, and other special recognition. And you can join for as little as $4/moth. You can read all about it and signup here. 
Those benefits are all nice, but the real reason to sign up is this: 100% of all Caretaker money is channeled directly back into the site. By signing up to be a caretaker, you’re supporting writers you value, and enabling deeper dive Twins-specific content like this that isn’t dependent on ad revenue. We hope you’ll consider it. We expect you’ll love the benefits, and we would love to have you take the next step in supporting the Twins Daily community.

Through the end of May, Gilberto Celestino appeared to have turned a corner in 2022. The Twins backup center fielder was slashing .324/.398/.378, 50% above league average by wRC+.With little power to speak of, Celestino was a legitimate offensive contributor for a month or two. And then it all fell apart. From June 1 forward, Celestino slashed .211/.286/.278. The Twins clearly lost faith in him as they acquired Michael A. Taylor in a trade this last week, and he’s likely to fill the backup center field role. Celestino simply has too many questions left unanswered.
Nothing demonstrates the Twins lack of trust in Celestino like them trading for a nearly identical player to fill the role he was in last season. Taylor is nearly a carbon copy in terms of raw skills.
Both are elite defensive center fielders with little offensive value. It begs the question as to why the Twins traded for Taylor in the first place. There are two main considerations to take into account.
First and foremost, the Twins likely have a lack of trust not only in Celestino’s performance, but in his ability to focus. Celestino regularly made awful decisions in the field and on the bases down the stretch in 2022, and in September it reached a breaking point.
The offensive struggles were one thing, but it likely said a lot to the Twins brass that in a golden opportunity to prove himself with so many injuries, Celestino was losing focus in several aspects of the game that he had no reason not to be excelling at. It likely told the Twins that for 2023 on days when Byron Buxton is not in center field, Celestino was not a trustworthy replacement even to provide defensive value.
A bigger reason for the Taylor trade is that Celestino may be the same zero offense, plus defense type player as Taylor now, but he doesn’t have to be forever. In 2021 Celestino was promoted straight from Double-A as a 22-year-old out of necessity. He was an average hitter there and didn’t have time to adjust before making a massive leap to the MLB. He predictably showed little offensive value, but went down to Triple-A to end the season and slashed a fantastic .290/.384/.443 in 49 games.
It seems Celestino is headed back to Triple-A St. Paul to begin 2023, and he may spend significant time there. His unrefined plate approach became too obvious in 2022, and his plan of what to work on is pretty straightforward. He hit the ball to the opposite field more often than any other direction, and as the season went on, he was successfully challenged by pitches inside. He rarely made loud contact, as he appeared to just be trying to hang in there at the plate against MLB pitching.  In Triple-A the Twins can work on him pulling the pitches he should be. Even developing some gap power would make him a much more serviceable fill-in. He has one minor league option remaining and won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2025, meaning the Twins have a solid timeline to develop Celestino just a bit more offensively.
There is likely still a slight chance that the Twins could trade Celestino if a team calls them up and sees him as a legitimate piece in a trade for an impact player. The Twins would likely prefer however to turn the keys over to Celestino next season after Michael A Taylor departs in free agency. Even if Celestino doesn’t show the offensive upside he flashed in his brief AAA stint, he can play a valuable part in the Twins outfield mix the next few years.
It’s obvious that Gilberto Celestino is the big loser in the Michael A Taylor trade, but the Twins have to ensure they don’t find themselves in the same spot as last year. Celestino was dealt a tough hand the day he was promoted directly from AA, and it likely set him back a bit. With Taylor, the Twins bought time for Celestino to develop into the player he’s capable of however, and now it’s up to him to make use of the development time he missed out on in AAA.
 

There have been points this winter where we were waiting for a Max Kepler trade announcement within the coming hours, such as when Joey Gallo was signed. Here we are at the end of January, however, and not only is Max Kepler still a Twin, it appears that may not change after all.
When Disco Dan Hayes makes such a statement, it’s wise to listen. The Twins still see value in Kepler, at least more than other teams appear to on the trade market. It’s a fair stance. It’s hard to trade a player for less than a team feels they’re worth. That being said, if Max Kepler stays in Minnesota another year, the Twins need to get realistic about what they have in their homegrown corner outfielder.
Max Kepler was seen as a breakout candidate for years before finally doing so in 2019. His 122 wRC+ that year made him appear to be a future star player, slugging 36 homers and crushing lefties, his biggest weakness as a hitter. We now have about 1,500 plate appearances prior to 2019 and over 1000 after saying that Max Kepler is not the player he was in 2019, and it’s time the Twins stop pretending he is.
The realistic description of Max Kepler is that he’s a defense first strong side platoon player with a plate approach that should keep him out of the everyday lineup. In about 1,100 plate appearances since 2019, Max Kepler has slashed .220/.314/.392. His 98 wRC+ is 2% below league average for that time period, but playing the premier offensive position of corner outfield means that he’s even further below average than that relative to his positional peers. 
The Twins roster is ripe with reasons for Max Kepler not to have right field locked down everyday. Trevor Larnach nearly had as many Defensive Runs saved as Kepler in far fewer innings defensively in 2022, and there’s still a chance he hits left handed pitching and becomes a legitimate everyday player. Joey Gallo, for as much hate as he gets, is a legit plus player in the outfield defensively, and his career wRC+ is over 30 points higher against left handed pitching while his splits against right handed pitching are nearly identical to Kepler. Newly added outfielder Michael Taylor, who is known for being a non contributor offensively, blows Kepler away against left handed pitching for their careers.
 In 2022, Max Kepler took 60% of his plate appearances in the 1-4 spots of the lineup and about 43% of his plate appearances in the cleanup spot. There’s simply no justification for the Twins to continue this moving forward. With a career .744 OPS, Kepler hasn’t even reached the .720 mark since the shortened 2020 season. Even against right handed pitching Kepler has been surpassed by players such as Nick Gordon, who performed considerably better offensively as a platoon player in 2022. The Twins have assembled enough depth to keep Kepler from hitting in the heart of the lineup, and from playing in same-handed matchups at all. At 30 years old it’s time to recognize that this is the caliber of player that Max Kepler is.
All of this to say that Max Kepler is a fine player… as a depth piece. There will be times where his defensive value is needed, and given the Twins recent injuries, he'll be a fine everyday fill-in for short periods if need be. In terms of 2022 calculated value per WAR, Kepler was still a value as he was paid $6.75m and was worth a bit over $10m by 2022 free agency measures. His $8.5m salary in 2023 and $10m team option for 2024 become much more in question however.
If Kepler plays less in 2023 and/or his defensive value declines even slightly, he becomes less of a value and a prime candidate to have his 2024 option declined. This is why it’s still somewhat puzzling that the Twins don’t appear to be determined to trade him. With the shift ban on the horizon, it’s not a stretch to call it likely that Kepler’s value may never be higher despite the fact that it doesn’t look like he’ll benefit all that much from the rule change.
The Twins may still very well trade Max Kepler. If they don’t however, they need to use him in an appropriate role. He’s not a player whose performance demands at bats. He’s not part of the core of the lineup.
 

Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade last Friday in which he flipped
Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez with two prospects. One of those prospects, Jose Salas, was a top five prospect in the Marlins organization. The 19-year-old Salas was an international signing in 2019 by the Marlins and now gives the Twins another middle infield prospect with a ton of upside.
Falvey has shown to be very patient on the trade market, sticking to his guns and getting teams to overpay. Just as he did when he traded Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the 2021 trade deadline, Falvey has a knack for getting the most out of every trade he has his hand in. The Twins were insistent they wouldn't trade Arraez for Lopez in a 1-for-1 deal, but the fact that the front office convinced the Marlins to throw in a top prospect provides the Twins with a good amount of middle infield depth in the minor leagues.
Salas joins Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin
as top prospects in the Twins organization and potential future shortstop options to take over for Carlos Correa when he inevitably moves to 3rd base. The consensus is that Lee and Martin will almost certainly move positions by the time they arrive at the majors, but Lewis proved he can play short in his limited time there last year. While Salas is young, early accounts suggest that he may stick at short.
The depth the Twins have built is excellent. After this trade, the Twins have acquired enough top-tier minor-league talent to make a swing for a pitcher even more impactful than Lopez.
The Twins currently have six pitchers worthy of a look at a rotation spot, and while all of them are very good, none of them would be considered an "ace." The rotation the Twins have built is better than any rotation they've had in a while, but adding a top-of-the-line pitcher would put this team from contenders in the AL Central to contenders in the American League. Whether they move to push for a trade now or at the trade deadline in July, the Twins could cash in on the depth of minor-league talent they have accumulated just as they cashed in on the depth of MLB-level hitters in the Arraez trade.
This offseason, a couple of pitchers' names have been thrown around that would be considered by most in the "ace" status of starting pitchers. The two names mentioned most frequently are Arizona Diamondback's Zac Gallen and Milwaukee Brewer's Corbin Burnes . Gallen is under team control through 2025, while Burnes is under team control through the 2024 season.
Trading Burnes when your team is a contender in its division would be weird, but that's how the Brewers have operated in recent years. Despite being in the thick of the playoff race, they traded Josh Hader to San Diego at last year's deadline. Zac Gallen has more control than Burnes and plays on a bad team, so Gallen remains the more likely option to get moved at some point this year.
The package for either of these two players would not be cheap, but after adding Salas, the Twins could have enough assets to complete a trade and not deplete the farm too much. They also have the #5 overall pick in the upcoming MLB Draft this July. Plus, they have young talent on the major league roster.
For instance, if the Twins were to strap Bailey Ober , under team control through 2027, to one of their top infield prospects, they could put themselves in a position where they would be close to pulling off a deal. Coupling the assets the Twins have to give with Falvey's recent ability to get teams to overpay leaves trading for an ace well within the realm of possibilities.
While it is unlikely that the Twins will pull off a trade for an ace before the offseason ends, it remains a possibility of something to look forward to at the trade deadline. If the Twins can stay healthy and competitive, there is no reason they can't use their depth of infield talent at the minor-league level to make one more massive move in an attempt to bring the Commissioner's Trophy back to Minnesota.
What are your thoughts? Should the Twins dip into their minor-league talent to put together a package that would entice a team to send back their ace? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins!

Many first-round picks quickly move into the organization’s top prospect lists. Minnesota has seen some successes and failures in recent drafts, with multiple top prospects on the way to Target Field. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have focused on certain types of players in the draft, which might help the team keep its winning window open as long as possible. Here’s a look at the last decade of first-round picks for the Twins. 

2022: Brooks Lee (8th overall)
Lee is one of the most exciting hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time. Some evaluators thought he could be the number one overall pick, but he fell to the Twins with the eighth pick. Last season, he played at three levels and hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs. The Twins don’t need to rush things with Lee, and he will probably spend most of the season at Double-A. If he performs well, there is a chance he will make his debut in 2023 and is a top-25 global prospect by this time next year. 

2021: Chase Petty (26th overall)
It can take a long time for high school pitchers to develop in the minor leagues. Minnesota thought Petty had enough upside to take on that risk before drafting him late in the first round. Leading into last season, the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. In his age-19 season, the Reds pushed him to High-A, and he compiled a 3.48 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. For 2023, Petty should get a full season at High-A with a chance to pitch over 100 innings for the first time in his career. 

2020: Aaron Sabato (27th overall)
The 2020 MLB Draft will be interesting to analyze in the years ahead. College teams saw limited action before the shutdown, and many high school players never stepped on the field that spring. Sabato destroyed the ball in college (1.158 OPS) before being drafted by the Twins. In 2022, he hit .215/.336/.438 (.774) with 17 doubles and 22 home runs while reaching Double-A. Sabato was over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, so he should spend most of 2022 at that level. 

2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall)
Cavaco has spent the last two seasons at Fort Myers while shifting from shortstop to third base. Last season, he hit .231/.275/.397 (.672) with 18 doubles, five triples, and 11 home runs. His OPS jumped 74 points compared to 2021, and he was roughly the same age as the average competition at his level. He will be pushed to Cedar Rapids in 2023 with a chance to reach Double-A by the season’s end. 

2018: Trevor Larnach (20th overall)
Larnach has averaged fewer than 80 games per season over the last two years. He’s been a streaky hitter during his big-league career, but some of his performance might be tied to his injury history. He posted a 104 OPS+ in 2022 and destroyed the ball in May with a 1.077 OPS. Minnesota has a plethora of left-handed power-hitting bats, which might make Larnach expendable as part of a trade. 

2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall)
It looked like the Twins might be willing to turn shortstop over to Royce Lewis before the team signed Carlos Correa to a long-term deal. Now, Lewis will need to shift to other defensive positions if Correa continues to stay healthy. During the 2023 season, Lewis isn’t expected to return to action until mid-season while recovering from his second ACL tear over the last two seasons. 

2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall)
Kirilloff has battled through wrist issues during his first two big-league seasons, and the Twins hope his latest surgery helps him in the long term. There have been glimpses of the strong hitter Kirilloff was at the start of his professional career, but his nagging wrist has slowed down his development. He will get regular time at first base and in a corner outfield spot for the 2023 Twins. 

2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall)
Jay never made it to the big leagues with the Twins organization. He topped out at the Double-A level in four seasons in the organization. The Twins traded Jay to the Reds organization during the 2019 season for cash considerations, but he only spent part of a season pitching for that organization. Last year, he made 22 appearances with a 1.64 ERA and 9.8 K/9 for the Joliet Slammers in the independent Frontier League. It seems likely that he can get another job in independent baseball if he wants to continue pitching. 

2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall)
It may have taken longer than expected, but Gordon found a niche with the 2022 Twins. He became an everyday player for a team struggling through injuries and posted a 113 OPS+ in 136 games. Minnesota has plenty of corner outfield options on the 40-man roster, so it will be interesting to see how the Twins will use Gordon in 2023. He is out of MLB options, so he needs to be kept on the Opening Day roster. 

2013: Kohl Stewart (4th overall)
Stewart played eight seasons in the Twins organization and made six appearances at the big-league level. He struggled in the upper minors with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in over 160 innings at Triple-A. For 2023, the Royals signed Stewart to a minor league deal, but he isn’t expected in big-league camp as he continues to rehab from an elbow injury. 

Which players will have the most significant impact on the 2023 roster? Which player was the biggest disappointment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 

Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
Entering the offseason, Ryan Jeffers was the lone catcher on the team's 40-man roster. Adding Christian Vazquez helps bolster the organization's catching depth. Last winter, the Twins traded Mitch Garver to allow Ryan Jeffers to become the primary catcher. However, many teams utilize a multi-catcher approach to keep players healthy and help their offensive production. Minnesota also signed veteran catcher Tony Wolters to a minor league deal, but he likely won't make the Opening Day roster. The Twins will need Walters during the season, and he has caught over 2800 innings at the big-league level. 

Infielders (6): Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco 
Adding Correa to this group changes the entire look of the infield. Farmer can now shift to a utility role and play all over the diamond. He was penciled in as the team's starting shortstop until Royce Lewis returned from his ACL injury. Minnesota is handing Miranda the starting third base job after the team traded Gio Urshela to the Angels. All the projected infielders can be used at multiple defensive positions, which will help Rocco Baldelli create the best line-ups on any given day. Minnesota was in the driver's seat for the AL Central last season before injuries ravaged the roster. Correa's return puts the Twins back in the conversation as a playoff team in 2023 and beyond. 

The depth here comes from the likes of Royce Lewis, when he returns (hopefully in June or July), who can play all over the diamond. Austin Martin can get whatever time he needs in St. Paul. The team can be patient with Brooks Lee rather than push him up too quickly. 

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon**, Max Kepler
Correa's signing also pushes other players off the 26-man roster. In my initial roster projection, Trevor Larnach was on the bubble, and now he will be in St. Paul's outfield with Matt Wallner. Both players will get playing time in 2023, but there needs to be room to keep them on the Opening Day roster. Kyle Garlick is also an interesting player because there might be other right-handed free-agent upgrades. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler fill similar roles for the Twins, so the Twins will likely trade Kepler, allowing them to carry a right-handed bench bat. Nick Gordon is out of minor-league options so the Twins will keep him based on his breakout performance in 2022. 

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
On paper, this starting five is a group that can win the AL Central, but there are health concerns with multiple pitchers on the roster. Mahle struggled with shoulder issues after the Twins acquired him, Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Ober dealt with various injuries last season. The Twins have starting pitching depth on the 40-man roster, with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ready to contribute at the big-league level. Jordan Balazovic is also an interesting name to consider if he is healthy to start the year. Minnesota has also been rumored to be interested in some of the remaining veteran free agents, but the club may want to rely on its pitching pipeline. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill**
Minnesota hopes Lopez can return to his previous form and combine with Duran to be a dominant back-end duo. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Jax could be a breakout reliever and fill a fireman role that Tyler Duffey had previously occupied. Pagan continues to be a question mark, but the Twins offered him arbitration, so they hope his performance improves in 2023. The Twins have also shown a tendency to move relievers up and down from Triple-A, a trend likely to continue next year. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands.      

What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Where do the Twins rank compared to other AL Central squads? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

I doubt anyone needs a recap at this point, but to quickly summarize: Nearly a month ago, Carlos Correa reached agreement with San Francisco on a historic 13-year, $350 million contract that would have made him one of the highest-paid players ever. It was the culmination of a lengthy gambit by Correa and Scott Boras, which included signing a short-term deal with the Twins last offseason and waiting out the shortstop market this year.
Or so it seemed. Just ahead of Correa's deal with the Giants being made official, San Francisco balked at something in his physical, leaving the deal in doubt. The issue at hand, evidently, was an old ankle injury from 2014 that had required insertion of a metal plate in his lower leg.  
Wasting no time, Boras quickly pivoted and got in touch with Mets owner Steve Cohen, swinging a late-night agreement for 12 years and $315 million less than 24 hours after the Giants deal fell through.
That the agent was so eager to strike another agreement – for a whopping 10% less than San Fran's original offer – was somewhat alarming. More alarming was what came next: in spite of Cohen's impulsive and free-spending ways, and in spite of Correa's flagged ankle being a known factor, the Mets still ran into significant reservations upon their own medical inspection.
The Mets and Correa spent nearly three weeks haggling over details and protective language in the contract. In the end, they could not reach an accord. 
And so along came the Twins, who weren't quite willing to stick with their original offer of 10 years and $285 million in light of all the new information, but won the day with a reduced six-year, $200 million guarantee featuring vesting options that can push the total value to $270. The Mets, evidently, offered $42 million less in guarantees and only WITH the caveat that Correa pass new physicals annually.
The Twins outbid the Mets considerably, making it a fairly easy decision for Correa. Yes, the Mets whose ultra-rich owner was clearly adamant about acquiring the star shortstop and has shown an appetite for risk. They couldn't stomach it.
The Twins, in this case, had greater appetite than the Mets for assuming financial risk in order to acquire proven starpower. It feels weird to type that sentence but it's true. Granted, Minnesota's final framework with Correa does add some new protections compared to the first offer, with four fewer guaranteed years. The shortstop will need to prove he can stay healthy if he wants to be making the big bucks into his late 30s, and it seems that was going to be the case wherever he signed.
But why? Why was Correa such a special case at a time where decade-long contracts are being handed out by MLB teams with seemingly reckless abandon? It comes back to that ankle, which is now a focal point going forward for a Twins team already plagued by health question marks.
What do we know about it? Not much, other than that whatever the doctors from the Giants and Mets saw spooked them big-time. Correa's 2014 injury, and the plate insertion to address it, were no secret going in. Still, something popped up on closer inspection that wound up costing Correa some $150 in guaranteed money over the course of a month.
I'm not going to pretend to have any expertise on this matter. But I will make an observation. While it's true that Correa has never missed time or received treatment for the old injury as a big-leaguer, that's not to say it hasn't affected his play. 
With the benefit of hindsight, we can point to some evidence that Correa has potentially been acutely aware of his ankle being a risk point.
Thinking back now, I'm struck by an article Phil Miller wrote for the Star Tribune last April detailing how Correa -- despite his solid speed -- had attempted zero steals in the previous two seasons, and seven in the past five, due to concerns over getting hurt.
"It's a decision I had to make. Every time you steal a base, there's a greater risk of injury, right? The tag can take you out, hitting the base, you can twist your ankle, break your hands," Correa said at the time. "It's higher risk for little reward. I realized that I'm more valuable offensively and defensively than I am trying to steal bags."
Sure enough, when Correa did attempt one single steal during 2022 season, in mid-September, he jarred his ankle. The shortstop looked visibly scared as he quickly collapsed on the ground and grabbed for his leg. He later admitted as much, telling reporters, "He just hit my plate. … Just kind of felt numb, vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew I was good."
The ankle was not an issue thereafter. Correa missed no time and played out the remaining two weeks without incident. And yet, given what we now know, the moment foreshadowed a tumultuous offseason ahead for Correa. Did he stir up or exacerbate the injury in some way? Was this simply an early sign of the underlying issues coming into play as San Francisco and New York fear? We don't know. 
The upshot here, theoretically, is that Correa has been managing and mitigating the problem for years. Seemingly there is no reason he can't continue to do so at least for the next few. We're talking about a supremely intelligent and dedicated athlete who knows how to take care of himself. 
With that said, the Mets couldn't sell themselves on C4 despite knowing about all of these qualities and being highly motivated buyers. It seems likely he would've chosen New York if they could've surpassed Minnesota's offer even on the six-year term, but the Mets wouldn't do it. 
The Twins, already fraught with as much pivotal injury risk as any team in baseball, are now taking one of the most publicized high-risk gambles in the history of free agency. They said from the start they were serious in their desire to bring back Correa and now they've proven it resoundingly by outbidding a skeptical field for a player now labeled as damaged goods.
We'll see if more details and information come out in the coming days about the specifics of Correa's ankle, and why the Twins were ultimately much more willing to live with the risk.

Derek Falvey sent Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the San Diego Padres a season ago. He dealt his closer in hopes of getting immediate value in Emilio Pagan while taking a flier on the health of Chris Paddack. It didn’t work out well for anyone in year one, but Minnesota has a second season of their return to right that ship. This time around, the Twins could aim a bit higher.
Currently, the Padres project to have a top-five payroll across Major League Baseball. They shocked the sport when signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. He’ll be into his 40s by the time that wraps up, and they already have a star shortstop in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr., though; that is where opportunity may lie.
It seems hard to believe the Padres would want to piece parts out going into the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are not better than last year, and San Diego is attempting to win the NL West. If there is a logical candidate in the near term, it’s probably shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Although Tatis is suspended for a PED violation, Bogaerts can take over at shortstop, and Kim could be flipped to gather another asset of need.
The former KBO standout is not otherworldly, but he did post a 107 OPS+ last season while playing 150 games. He is a solid defender, and Kim represents an upgrade over assumed Opening Day starter Kyle Farmer. He’s only 27 years old and doesn’t hit free agency until 2027, so the acquisition cost likely would not be cheap.
The Padres present some intriguing opportunities that could come once the season begins. If they don’t play to expectations early, there are a handful of talents the organization could piece out. It’s a near certainty that Manny Machado will opt out of his deal and become a free agent again next offseason, making him an attractive rental option. Tatis Jr. could also be moved if the Padres decided his immaturity wasn’t worth keeping around. A young superstar on a long-term deal would net plenty and could be a way for San Diego to reposition themselves within the luxury tax.
From a pitching perspective, I suggest Yu Darvish or Blake Snell could be had. Both have bigger dollars remaining, which could help offset whatever the prospect capital would be assumed in return. Darvish and Snell could easily slot in among the top of Minnesota’s rotation, and for a club looking to improve upon either Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, that would be a path to get there.
It was good to see the Padres load up by adding Juan Soto last season, but it wasn’t enough to advance to the World Series, and there is little reason to assume he won’t be targeting the highest payday by waiting two years to reach free agency. If Preller decides that an extension before 2025 won’t happen, the way San Diego pivots throughout the next season and a half will be incredibly interesting.
The Twins have substantial money to spend this offseason yet, and there needs to be more in the way of free agency to make that happen. Trading for salaries that may be bloated but would incorporate a talent boost for the roster is a way to make it happen. The front office hasn’t shied away from making multiple deals with the same teams, and they could go down that path again here.

The Houston Astros originally signed Gilberto Celestino as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. He played his first three professional seasons in the Astros organization before being traded to the Twins along with Jorge Alcala for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline. His first full season in the Twins organization was spent at the Low-A level, where he posted a .759 OPS in 117 games. He was over a year younger than the average age of the competition, so signs pointed to even more potential. 

In 2021, Minnesota was aggressive with Celestino coming out of the pandemic by sending him to Double-A. He made brief stops at Double-A (34 games), but the club was forced to promote him to the big-league level because of a lack of outfield options on the 40-man roster. He struggled in 23 games by hitting .136/.177/.288 (.466) before being demoted to Triple-A, a level he had never experienced in his professional career. His performance dramatically improved in St. Paul as he posted an .827 OPS over the season’s final 49 games. Despite his struggles, Celestino looked like a long-term outfield option for the Twins. 

Minnesota wanted Celestino to get more experience at Triple-A to start the 2022 season, but the club needed him again in the big leagues. He went on to play over 120 games for the Twins and only logged seven total minor-league at-bats in 2022. Celestino showed some of his true potential in May when he hit .364/.426/.418 (.844) with three doubles. Those numbers are far from his minor-league track record, and he only had one other month during the season with an OPS above .600. He was inconsistent, but he was only 23 years old with little experience in the upper minors. 
Last season, Celestino played all three outfield positions, with most of his playing time coming in center field. Baseball Savant ranked him well in Outs Above Average (79th percentile) and Arm Strength (93rd percentile). His Outfield Jump ranked slightly above average and is the most significant area he can improve. He’s had minimal experience in the corner outfield spots throughout his professional career, which might be one reason his Outfield Jump was lower this year. As he gets more experience in the corners, he can get a better read on the ball and see better defensive numbers. 

Celestino ranked in the 20th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, hard hit %, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel %. Those numbers are certainly lower than the Twins would like, but his lack of experience in the upper minors is tied to some of his struggles. There are positive signs in his offensive profile. He ranked in the 63rd percentile for BB% and the 86th percentile for chase rate. Celestino has a good eye at the plate, so he needs to translate that into making solid contact on a more regular basis. 

Across baseball, the average OPS has dropped by over 50 points since 2019. During the 2019 season, the league average for OPS was .706, but the Twins posted a .718 OPS, which ranked fifth in the American League. Celestino has been an above-average hitter during his professional career. He has posted a .753 OPS in over 1,600 plate appearances in the minors. It will be up to the Twins and hitting coach David Popkins to unlock Celestino’s power at the big-league level. 

Celestino could benefit from more time in Triple-A, but that might not be a luxury the Twins can afford. Byron Buxton needs regular time at the DH spot, and Celestino is the best back-up centerfield option on the 40-man roster. The Twins also mentioned that Joey Gallo has the potential to play sometime in center, but he’s made less than 50 starts at the position during his big-league career. Celestino needs to be on the roster as Buxton insurance. 

There is more to unlock with Celestino in the years ahead. He’s only 23 years old, and he’s still entering the prime of his career. The Twins need someone who can play centerfield regularly with a bat that stands up when the player has to fit into a corner outfield spot. Celestino will continue to improve on both sides of the ball, which makes it exciting to think about his long-term upside. 

What is Celestino’s ceiling? Can he improve his power numbers at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Austin Martin was billed as a tremendous hitter with an unknown defensive future when he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 draft. Martin’s minor league career got off to a good but strange start offensively, and the defensive questions quickly grew before being traded to the Twins during the summer following his draft selection. A year and a half later, the Twins are left with more questions than answers.
Martin was immediately placed in Double-A with Toronto due to what was seen as an advanced plate approach, and he rewarded them with a 133 wRC+ in his 56 games before being traded. His overall body of work looked like he not only belonged, but that he could shoot up the minors and debut in the MLB in short order. So why would Toronto trade such a player?
Martin walked an incredible 14.8% of the time and only struck out 21.2% of the time with Toronto. His .281 batting average and .424 OBP were very impressive. If you’ve followed Twins prospects, however, you likely know the question with Martin was always his power. He slugged just .383 in his debut, a total power outage that was exacerbated by Toronto’s lack of belief in his ability to stick in the middle of the field defensively. He committed 10 errors in just 26 games at shortstop with Toronto before they started moving him around the diamond.
The Twins saw an opportunity to buy a player who was losing the faith of the team that drafted him. They traded Jose Berrios for Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. They gave Martin the keys to shortstop in Double-A and began attempting to retool his swing.
In his year and a half in the Twins system, Martin’s prospect stock has declined significantly. After finishing 2021 similarly to how he started, Martin completely cratered in 2022. His slash line of .241/.367/.315 was 11% below league average in Double-A. He stole an impressive 34 bases in 90 games, but his walk rate didn’t reach 2021 levels and his power declined even further. He committed 18 errors at shortstop in just 70 games, and by year’s end, it appeared the Austin Martin shortstop experiment had come to an end. He had dealt with hand issues throughout the season which surely held him back to some extent, but his struggles dropped him out of any top 100 prospects list you can find.
So what could Austin Martin’s future hold? Of note, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time in 2022 and dominated to the tune of a .374/.454/.482 slash line, stealing 10 bases in just 21 games. It’s possible he was finally healthy and some of those swing changes finally showed themselves. If he can utilize his contact and walk ability and slug even .400, he’s likely to find himself at the door of the Major Leagues in short order at the age of 24. 
Still, significant questions persist. The Twins have yet to find a position that Martin can play well after spending nearly all of 2022 coming to the conclusion that shortstop isn’t an option. A rational pivot would be to move him across the bag to second base. Unfortunately for Martin, it’s hard to see him finding everyday playing time there in the near future between Jorge Polanco and a mix of prospects such as Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, etc. who have all blown past Martin in their development. He also doesn’t appear to be a great candidate for any corner infield or outfield spots due to his lack of power and overall questions offensively.
Look for the Twins to give Martin some legitimate run in centerfield in 2023. He was always viewed as a freak athlete, and perhaps this would translate better on the grass than it did in the dirt. With players like Gilberto Celestino failing to grab ahold of the job to back up Buxton, Martin could carve out a role for himself quickly if the Twins like what they see. If he can rebound offensively he can have a role in MLB very soon. The longevity of his career and how consistently he’s in the starting lineup will depend on where he can settle in defensively.
It’s hard to say Austin Martin’s time in Minnesota has not gone as planned, and his outlook is at an all-time low for his young career. For now, he’s no longer anywhere close to one of the Twins top prospects with so many questions to be answered in his overall game. Still, his Arizona Fall League offered a look at the talent he still possesses and it’s fair to hold out hope for a rebound in 2023 based on health alone. 
Will 2023 be a rebound season for Martin? What level of MLB player do you think he’ll be at this point in his career? Let us know below!
 
 

Prospect development is not a linear path. Some prospects reach the higher levels of the minor leagues and struggle, while others move quickly to the big-league level. Two of the prospects outlined below had a chance to reach the big leagues in 2022, but their performance didn't warrant a promotion. Injuries and poor performance can hurt a prospect's long-term outlook, but these players have the potential to impact the Twins in 2023.

Brooks Lee
TD Top Prospect Rank: 2
Debut Prediction: September
Minnesota selected Lee as the team's top pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He flew through three levels in the Twins system and ended the year at Double-A. In 31-games, he hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs. He likely spends most of 2023 at the Double-A level, but his performance will dictate his ultimate landing spot. There is no need to rush Lee to the big leagues, but his college experience and advanced bat can put him on track to be a late-season call-up. 

Austin Martin
TD Top Prospect Rank: 6
Debut Prediction: July
Martin entered the 2022 campaign as one of the Twins' top prospects, but his season went differently than planned. There was an opportunity for him to make his big-league debut in 2022 since he was repeating the Double-A level. Unfortunately, he struggled offensively with a .685 OPS while also dealing with a wrist injury. Martin ended September on a strong note and carried his hot hitting into the Arizona Fall League. If healthy, Martin is still part of the team's long-term plans while offering plenty of upside. 

Edouard Julien
TD Top Prospect Rank: 10
Debut Prediction: May
While Martin struggled in Wichita, Julien was one of the organization's breakout prospects in 2022. In 113 games, he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. He posted an eye-popping 1.248 OPS this fall on the way to being named the AFL's Breakout Prospect. Julien is close to big-league-ready when it comes to his prospect development. He will play the year in the upper minors waiting for an opportunity to arise at the big-league level. Since he's on the 40-man roster, one injury is all it will take for a call-up.   

Jordan Balazovic
TD Top Prospect Rank: 15
Debut Prediction: June
Balazovic struggled through much of 2022 but ended the year on a high note. Minnesota needed many starting pitchers last season, but Balazovic never got the call. In 22 appearances (70.2 IP), he posted a 7.39 ERA with a 1.94 WHIP and a 76-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Multiple starting pitchers have passed him on the organizational depth chart, but there have been times when he was considered one of the team's best pitching prospects. His September might signify that he is ready to take the next step, which can set him up for a bounce back year in 2023. 

Will all of these prospects debut in 2023? Can Martin and Balazovic bounce back? Who are you most excited to see? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

These rankings are intended to provide a relative view of Twins players and prospects by appraising their big-picture value to the organization. The goal is to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?
We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, where this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific POV. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit.
I always find compiling this list to be an interesting offseason exercise – one that surfaces unique conversations about Twins players, how we value them, and where the system's strengths and weaknesses truly lie. 
What made it so challenging this year is that, by design, these rankings are a snapshot in time – published at the start of January for no other reason than a new year feels like a good time to reset and reassess – and right now, it's very tough to get a read on the state of this organization and its talent.
For one thing, it feels like we're in the midst of a slow-developing offseason journey with big twists still ahead. I have a strong feeling there will be noticeable changes to this list by March 30th. 
But even more, there is SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with the players they already have. A snapshot at this midpoint of the offseason lacks clarity around key health-related details with massive implications. I struggled with many decisions, and they begin to crop up in this first installment.
For example: If healthy, Tyler Mahle at $7.2 million is tremendously valuable, even with only one remaining year of team control. Can we safely operate under the assumption he'll be healthy and at full strength in 2023? (Spoiler alert: I decided no, and he just missed the cut.)
Another example: If his latest surgery works and Alex Kirilloff returns to being roughly the player he was before his wrist affliction, he's a centerpiece in the lineup controlled for several years. Can you assume such a rare and complex surgery will take? (Spoiler alert: My cautious optimism got him on the list, but as you'll soon learn, not very high.)
With that setup, let's kick off the countdown with my picks for the 16th through 20th most valuable assets in the Twins organization. First, you can check out my rankings from the past five years to see how the franchise's talent landscape has evolved:
Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 16 through 20
20. Matt Wallner, OF
2022 Ranking: NR
On a list like this, Wallner has a few key things working against him.
First, his player type – strikeout-prone LH corner bat with big power – is fairly abundant in baseball, as evidenced by the Twins signing the poster child in Joey Gallo for $11 million. Second, that player type happens to be especially abundant in the Twins organization. So long as Max Kepler remains camped in right field, Wallner lacks a direct path to the majors, even though his skill set looks ready.
The reason he still makes the list, just barely, is because his abilities within that skill set are SO exceptional. Baseball America rates Wallner as the best power hitter and best outfield arm in the Twins system – tools that were on display during a September debut in the majors. 
Wallner didn't put up terribly impressive numbers in 18 games with the Twins but had some big moments, and if he's shown one thing during his ascent through the minors it's that he can quickly put a slow start at a new level behind him and start dominating once he gets comfortable.
The Twins will hope that's exactly what happens to the 25-year-old, who can make a big impact on the team's (near) future as either a slugger in the middle of the order or highly marketable trade chip.
19. Louie Varland, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
Around this time last year, there was still a degree of widespread skepticism around Varland. Sure, he'd earned Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2021 with some truly dazzling numbers, but was this former 15th-round draft pick out of a D2 college the real deal, or a flash in the pan?
He backed up his breakout with a 2022 campaign that saw him:
Named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year for a second consecutive year, posting a 3.06 ERA in 126 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. 
Debut in the major leagues, where he showed the poise and ability of a seasoned vet. In five starts, Varland posted a 3.81 ERA over 26 innings, completing at least five frames in each turn. 
Skepticism remains regarding Varland's true ceiling, which is why he doesn't rank higher on this list, but he has solidified his standing as a turnkey mid-rotation starter with six years of team control. His durability and consistency stand out from the field of pitchers in the Twins organization.
18. Sonny Gray, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
As things currently stand, Gray is the only pitcher in the organization who can credibly be looked at as a dependable frontline starter for 2023. That, in a nutshell, is why I had to include him in these rankings, albeit near the back end because the status of his contract (one year remaining at $12.5 million) and checkered bill of health this past season.
Gray has been around the block. He's made All-Star teams. He's started playoff games. He's been a featured rotation piece for several teams in a decade of big-league action, and he filled that role pretty well for the Twins last year.
It was a bummer that recurring hamstring issues limited Gray to just 24 starts and 120 innings, but he doesn't have the same kind of looming health-related questions as fellow veteran starters Mahle and Kenta Maeda. When on the mound, his performance was pretty much everything you'd want: a bulldog who throws strikes, keeping runners off the bases and batted balls in the park.
To whatever extent the Twins are successful in the coming season, it seems very likely that Gray will play a pivotal role. 
17. Jorge Lopez, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
As the 2022 season played out, the Twins recognized that in order to take the next step forward, they needed to buttress Jhoan Duran at the back of the bullpen with another dominating force. This revelation pushed the front office to do something they rarely do: invest big in a buy-high relief pitcher.
The Twins gave up four prospects at the deadline to acquire Baltimore's All-Star closer, who was experiencing an instant breakthrough in his transition to full-time reliever. Lopez shook off his previous struggles as a starter and transformed into a convincing lights-out bullpen ace for the O's.
His performance in Minnesota after the trade was far less inspiring, but unlike Mahle, there's no reason to believe anything is physically amiss for Lopez. His profile – heavy doses of whiffs and grounders with sinking upper-90s heat – is a pretty reliable formula for success. So long as he can get back to commanding his arsenal Lopez figures to be a key piece during his two remaining seasons of team control.
16. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
2022 Ranking: 3
I'm an affirmed believe in Kirilloff. In five past iterations of these rankings, I've had him in the top five twice, including #2 in 2021 and #3 last year. I view his pedigree, IQ and ability as a hitter to be in a rarefied class. 
He's flashed it in brief glimpses on the field, and last year AK hammered home his hitting prowess during a hilariously productive month at Triple-A (.385/.477/.725 in 28 games). But on the big-league field, Kirilloff's success has always been fleeting, with each setback tied to a clear culprit.
The wrist injury that sabotaged his elite swing, and has now required two surgeries, will define Kirilloff's career. He'll overcome it with help from this latest intervention, or join the long list of rising stars fell victim to the brutal physical toll of pro sports – forced to make do rather than make hay.
I'm bullish on Kirilloff overcoming it. If for no other reason than that the Twins as a franchise, and especially Alex Kirilloff as person, are overdue for a good break. The guy also lost a full year of development to Tommy John surgery, and despite it all, finds himself firmly planted in the majors at age 25. His talent is not in question. 
A healthy and raking Kirilloff would be a radical difference-maker in the outlook for the 2023 Twins and beyond. Ranking him 16th on this list is an attempt to balance that simmering potential with the cold realities of the human body and its limits.

In spring training, the Twins had Taylor Rogers and Jhoan Duran scheduled to be a dominant back-end duo in the Twins' bullpen. On April 7th, the Twins sent Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina. San Diego wanted an upgrade to their bullpen, while the Twins got a controllable starting pitcher and a reliever with late-inning experience. The deal made sense for both teams on paper, but the players involved struggled through much of the season. 

Chris Paddack's Struggles
Paddack's Twins tenure started well as he posted a 3.15 ERA with a 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first four starts. Something wasn't right in his fifth start as he allowed three runs while only recording seven outs. He walked off the mound on May 8th and didn't pitch another inning in 2022. In the middle of May, he underwent his second Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Paddack's recovery sidelines him until the middle of next season, but there is hope the Twins can get him back for the stretch run. He is under contract for two more seasons, so the team hopes he can provide value over the end of his team control. 

Emilio Pagan's Struggles
Pagan's first season with the Twins couldn't have gone much worse. In 59 appearances (63 innings), he posted a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Minnesota continued to use Pagan in high-leverage situations, even with his struggles. Pagan's -0.4 WAR ranked fourth lowest on the team, with only Yennier Cano, Joe Smith, and Trevor Megill ranking lower. According to Win Probability Added (WPA), Pagan ranked 33rd out of 38 Twins pitchers with a -0.99 WPA. Minnesota tendered Pagan a contract for 2023, which might tie to his improved performance in the second half. In 25 games, he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Barring a trade, Pagan will be part of Minnesota's bullpen in 2023. 

Taylor Rogers' Struggles
Rogers started the year strongly before struggling mightily down the stretch. He posted a 3.82 ERA in the first half with a 0.98 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. San Diego continued to use him in a late-inning role, and he accumulated 26 saves. In July, his performance declined as he allowed ten earned runs on 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings. With the Padres, Rogers was worth -0.68 WPA and a -0.2 WAR. At the beginning of August, the Padres sent Rogers to the Brewers for a package that included Josh Hader. He struggled after the trade with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Relievers work in small sample sizes, and it was the first time Rogers struggled for most of a season. He's left-handed and has a proven track record, so a team will sign him and look for him to bounce back in 2023. 

Rogers is a free agent searching for a new home for 2023, so that portion of the trade is done from the Padres' perspective. Minnesota will hope for an improved performance from Pagan in 2023 and that Paddack can be part of the 2024 rotation. The Twins have a chance to recoup some value, but both teams look like losers at this point. 

Which team was hurt more by the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

It's hard to believe that the Twins' phenomenal Bomba Squad 2019 was almost four years ago, but 2023 will be here before we know it. 
As the time approaches, its fun to look back at the Twins' top 30 prospects of the time, according to MLB.com, and how their 2022 seasons panned out across the majors and minors. 
Here’s how the top 30 Twins prospects from 2019 had their 2022 seasons end up.
On Active Rosters for the end of 2022
3. Brusdar Graterol
The Twins' fastest throwing arm at the time, Brusdar Graterol, was ranked as their highest pitching prospect going into the 2019 season. 
This year, Dodgers counted on Graterol often in high-leverage opportunities and will likely continue to do so in 2023 as their bullpen gets reconfigured. Graterol’s fastball is still one of the fastest in the game averaging 99.4 mph for the sixth highest in MLB according to Baseball Savant. 
Whether the Dodgers will use Graterol as their main closer in 2023 or keep him as a high-leverage reliever remains to be seen. His greatest tool will always be as the flamethrower of the Dodgers bullpen. 
7. Jhoan Duran
Baseball’s newest and most successful rookie flamethrower was the Twins second-best pitching prospect in 2019. Now he has exceeded expectations as the Twins' best reliever having the best rookie campaign for an American League reliever since Jonathan Papelbon with the Red Sox in 2006. 
In 2019, Duran was still being used as a starter making 22 starts between Pensacola and Fort Myers. Back then Duran was not the ace reliever we know him to be know as he pitched 115 innings, posted a 3.76 ERA and struck out 136 batters. Now he looks to keep his title of being enshrined as baseballs fastest pitcher. 
10. Nick Gordon
Back in 2019, Gordon spent all season at Triple-A Rochester while battling injuries that set back his MLB debut so long.  With two full seasons under his belt now, Gordon looks to be the go-to backup outfielder for the Twins in 2023 in left and center fields. 
His time as an infielder will be more limited with the addition of Kyle Farmer last month. Still, if Gordon continues to build off the success he’s had in 2022. There should be no doubts concerning what he can do for the 2023 Twins. 
12. Akil Baddo
Baddo’s second season in Detroit was a complete sophomore slump. Injuries kept him out for a portion of the season. And when he was healthy, the energy that brought about the success of his rookie campaign just was not there. 
2019 was Baddo’s first big injury setback in his career, keeping him to just 29 games played that season, all in Ft. Myers. His numbers in those 29 games looked similar to that of his 2022 season in Detorit as he posted a .214/.290/.393 triple slash and .683 OPS in 2019.
14. Jose Miranda
Miranda spent all but one game of his 2019 season in Fort Myers. At that time he did not look like the player he is now, but the Twins have full confidence in his abilities from 2021 and 2022 to make him the everyday third baseman for the 2023 season. 
Three years ago, Miranda was still coming into his own at the Twins High A affiliate. His numbers did not exactly pop off as they did the last two seasons in the organization as he posted a .252/.302.369    triple slash and a .671 OPS in 119 games. 
15. Gilberto Celestino
Once an unknown prospect acquired from the Houston Astros for Ryan Pressly, Gilberto Celestino became the Twins' fourth outfielder for the team this year. 
Celestino’s first full season in the Twins system was mainly spent in Cedar Rapids where he had one of the best professional seasons of his career. Celestino played in 125 games and posted a .277/.349/.410 triple slash and .759 OPS with career highs in home runs (10) and runs batted in (54). 
16. Ryan Jeffers
The Twins' hopeful starting catcher in 2022 will now be splitting time in a platoon role with new arrival Christain Vazquez. 
2019 was Jeffers first full professional season splitting time between Fort Myers and Pensacola. His promise as a future starting catcher for the Twins showed during that season as he hit .264/.341/.421 for a triple slash and posted a .762 OPS in 103 games. 
Now, the Twins are hopeful that Jeffers can remain healthy more than anything else and rebuild his promise as a 26-year-old platoon catcher in 2023. 
17. Luis Arraez
The 2022 American League Batting Champion looks to remain with the Twins for now despite faulty rumors of him being a part of a trade to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez.
Back in 2019, Arraez graduated off the prospect lists and to the Majors taking the Twins fandom by storm. He proved the contact hitter going the opposite way was not dead in baseball and quickly became a fan favorite.
The only limitations ahead for Arraez are consistent playing time at first base or DH, depending on how the team wants to move forward with those roles in the remainder of the off-season. While his name may still be floated around in trade rumors, Twins fans can be more hopeful he will remain with Carlos Correa not coming back. 
22. LaMonte Wade Jr. 
Like Baddo, Wade Jr. had a hard time repeating his success of 2021 season in 2022. 
2019 was the year Wade Jr. graduated off the prospect list and debuted with the Twins in late June. Wade Jr. had 26 games with the Twins in his rookie campaign and spent the majority of his season with the Rochester Red Wings hitting .246/.392/.356 for a triple slash and posting a .748 OPS. 
Wade Jr. looks to continue as a back up outfielder for the Giants next season and his best hope is to develop himself back into the quality fourth outfielder he was in 2021. 
23. Griffin Jax
Jax being limited to five starts in all of 2017 was knocked off the Twins Top 30 prospect list in 2018. He found his way back onto the list going into the 2019 season when he pitched his best professional season to date between Double A and Triple A. 
The 2019 season certainly showed Jax’s highest promise as a future Twins starter as he posted a 2.90 ERA in 127.1 innings pitched across 23 starts. Unfortunately that never turned into reality with Jax’s first season in the majors. 
He fell into the old adage of being a failed starter that turned into a good reliever. Hopefully Jax can continue to live up to this season’s success in 2023. 
Played in 2022 but were mainly hurt
1. Royce Lewis
His future as the Twins man at shortstop is all but secured now once he heals from injury in July 2023. Every Twins fan knows Lewis had the best start to a season before retearing his knee in late May of this year.
Back in 2019 though, Lewis had a down season in the Minors compared to his 2018 season. That is when the Twins decided to send him to the Arizona Fall League to rejuvenate his talents. 
Lewis did of course do that tearing apart the Fall League’s pitching hitting .353/.411/.565     for a triple slash and posting a .975 OPS across 22 games. 
2. Alex Kirilloff
Kirilloff has not had the best of luck staying healthy since making his MLB debut in 2020. While his MLB debut was an elimination playoff game, Kirilloff has only managed to play in 104 games across the last two seasons due to his wrist injuries. 
Injuries still bugged him 2019, but Kirilloff played in a decent amount of games totaling 93 all at Double A Pensacola. He had a triple slash of .283/.343/.413 and OPS of    .756.
Kirilloff’s injury history is unique and only Kirk Gibson has had the success and longevity  after battling the wrist problems. If Kirilloff plays in at least half the Twins games this season, fans can certainly expect him to continue platooning time between first base and the outfield.     
5. Trevor Larnach
Before getting his call up in 2021 and battling injuries in 2022, Larnach had his best professional season ever in 2019. Larnach played his season between Fort Myers and Pensacola hitting .309/.384/.458 with a .842 OPS. 
Larnach’s injuries in 2022, compared to that of Kirilloff’s, had more optimism for a sooner return and recovery. He did play in a few games to end the season with the St. Paul Saints. One has to assume, Larnach will see more time in left field than Kirilloff with how the roster currently sits as Kirilloff and Arraez are most likely to platoon between first and designated hitter roles. 
18. Jorge Alcala
Some Twins fans (including this writer), forgot that Jorge Alcala pitched in any games for the Twins during the 2022 season. The two games Alcala came into relief for were in the Opening Series against the Seattle Mariners. 
The good news, those two outings were scoreless. The bad, he was out for the remainder of the season. Alcala had surgery on August 3 for right elbow arthroscopic debridement. He is still expected to be ready and healthy for Spring Training 2023. 
Back in 2019, Alcala was splitting time as a starter and reliever in the minor leagues. That changed once he made his MLB debut with the team on September 21 of that year. 
Played in 2022, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball
4. Wander Javier 
Wander Javier once had such promise as a prospect, he now joins a long list of minor league players who never reached their full potential as the Twins parted ways with him earlier in the off-season. 
The 2019 season was the beginning of Javier’s fall. After spending all of 2018 on the Minor League IL, Javier played 80 games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Over the course of those 80 games, Javier found himself struggling posting a .177/.278/.323 triple slash over the season.
6. Brent Rooker
Brent Rooker spent time between the Padres and Royals organizations in 2022 as he was a piece that brought in one of the most controversial relievers in Twins history. 
2019 Rooker was another player than he is now. While he battled injuries, Rooker was very productive for the Rochester Red Wings. Rooker hit 14 home runs and had 47 runs batted in along with a .282/.399/.530 triple slash and a .929 OPS in 67 games. 
8. Lewis Thorpe 
Thorpe found his way out of the Twins organization after one start with the St. Paul Saints in April. Three years ago he was a hyped up pitching prospect who finally found his way onto the Twins roster. 
Thorpe pitched in 12 games and made two starts for the Twins when called up in 2019 and couldn’t repeat the success he had in the minors as he posted a 6.18 ERA in 27.2 innings. Time in Triple A was better for Thorpe in 2019 but not by much as he made 19 starts and posted a 4.58 ERA in 96.1 innings. 
9. Blayne Enlow 
Enlow’s best path to get to the Majors now looks to be from the bullpen as he battled injuries and struggles on the mound throughout the 2022 season. He split time between the rotation and bullpen at Double-A Wichita this year and found more success as a reliever. 
During the 2019 season, Enlow split time between the Twins' Low and High A affiliates as a starter. He pitched decently totaling 20 starts across 110.2 innings and posted a 3.82 ERA for the season.
11. Stephen Gonsalves 
After debuting with the Twins in 2018, Gonsalves spent the majority of his 2019 season on the injured list and when healthy, was on three of the Twins' Minor League affiliates. 
Gonsalves only pitched in 13 innings the whole season, recording only one more out than he did in 2022 for the Iowa Cubs. Gonzalves has not announced that he is stepping away from professional baseball for 2023, but has not pitched since May of this year, it hard to say if he’ll do so again. 
13. Yunior Severino 
One of many players still in the Twins system three years on. Severino had one of his better professional seasons in 2022 splitting time between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. 
Severino has had a long journey through the lower Minor League affiliates in the Twins organization. 2019 was a season filled with injuries that kept his playing time limited to 28 games at rookie ball and Cedar Rapids. 
Fortunately for Severino, the last two seasons have seen a great increase in his hitting ability giving him a good chance to get a call-up to St. Paul sometime in 2023. 
19. Jordan Balazovic 
While he struggled mightily for the 2022 season and didn’t see his number improve until the last month of the season. Jordan Balazovic was a completely different pitcher in 2019, working his way up the Twins system. 
Balazoivc spent the 2019 season between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids, dominating Low and High A pitchers with a 2.69 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP in 93.2 innings pitched. 
The big question for Balazoivc is if he can replicate the pitcher he once was in 2019 and break his way onto the Twins roster at some point during the 2023 season.
20. Misael Urbina 
Currently, the Twins' eighth-best prospect according to MLB.com,  Misael Urbina broke into the Twins' minor league system as a 17-year-old kid in 2019. The Twins touted Urbina out in the Dominican Summer League that season and played in 50 of the team’s 64 games.
Urbina’s numbers for his first 50 professional baseball games were solid as he posted a .279/.383/.443 triple slash with a .825. 
While Urbina has not been able to repeat the same success of hitting the last two seasons in the minors, he is still a spring chicken in age as he only turns 21 this upcoming April. There is still plenty of time for him to redevelop as a solid starting outfielder over the course of the 2023 season. 
21. Zack Littell 
After pitching briefly with the Twins in 2018, Littell graduated off the prospect list in 2019 as he had 29 relief outings in the Majors with the team and posted a 2.68 ERA in 37 innings. 
Littell did not have the same success in the Majors this last year as he had in 2019 as his outings became worse and worse with the Giants in 2022 before a meltdown sent him to the Minors to end the season. 
Littell was released by the Giants last month and no team has taken a bite on signing him yet. It is still likely for Littell to land a minor league deal with a team before Spring Training rolls around. 
24. Ben Rortvedt
2019 was a slight drop-off season for Rortvedt from his 2018 campaign in the minors. Rortvedt played in 79 games across Fort Myers and Pensacola hitting .238/.334/.379 for a triple slash and posting a    .714 OPS, four points higher than 2018.
Rortvedt never saw time in the Majors this season after being traded to the Yankees with Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Filefa for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. He is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League to strengthen himself but only has four hits in 41 at-bats across 12 games. 
25. Gabriel Maciel 
An outfielder who has never played a game above the High A level, Gabriel Maciel looked to be the real deal back in 2019. He was one of many players who did not benefit from the loss of the 2020 Minor League season. 
Maciel spent all of his 2022 season with the Oakland A’s High A affiliate the Langsing Lugnuts, and recovered well from his 2021 season in Cedar Rapids. The A’s parted ways with him after the conclusion of the Minor League season and with Maciel turning 24 next year with no time above High-A, it's hard to say if a team will bring him aboard a minor league contract. 
26. Luke Raley 
Raley was one of three players the Twins received from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade back in 2018. He only spent one full season in the Twins organization in 2019 as he was flipped back to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda the next off-season.
While Raley was in the Twins system, he did not accomplish much as he was limited to 38 games that season. He did hit well while healthy hitting .310/.361/.517 for a triple slash with a .878 OPS. The Twins did send him with Royce Lewis to the Arizona Fall League that season too.
Raley spent all of 2022 in the Rays organization hitting really well while in Triple-A Durham but not as well while with the Major League club. He is still with the Rays as of now and looks to serve as a utility player for the 2023 season. 
27. DaShawn Keirsey
DaShawn Keirsey has battled his way through the Twins system since being drafted out of college in 2018. Keirsey spent all of the 2022 season at Double-A Wichita and the outfielder put together a strong candidacy to move up the ladder to St. Paul next season. 
In 2019, Keirsey was fairly unknown to most Twins fans in the system as only played in 43 games between Cedar Rapids and Rookie Ball in Elizabethton. 
While he is not on any current top prospect lists for the Twins, Keirsey may be a name for fans to keep an eye on in 2023 for a future outfield call-up. 
28. Travis Blankenhorn
Back in 2019, Blankenhorn was far off from being an immediate call-up to the Twins. However, he was an effective hitter between Single and Double-A as he hit .277/.321/.466 with a .787 OPS in 108 games that season. 
Now he is a minor league free agent after spending the 2022 season in the Mets organization. After 92 games played this year and having defensive versatility, it is possible some team will offer Blankenhorn a minor league deal. 
29. Michael Helman
In 2019, Michael Helman had his worst year in professional baseball. Now he has become a minor league player many Twins fans are familiar with as he had his best season yet, mostly with the St. Paul Saints in 2022. 
Helman is like Kyle Farmer as a utility player and can play all the infield and outfield positions. Considering the lack of off-season moves currently at hand for the Twins, Helman realistically could make his MLB debut sometime in 2023.
30. Luis Rijo
Luis Rijo did not have a pleasant 2022 season, to say the least. He only pitched in 12 games, started 11, and out of those games came a 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 30 innings pitched. 
Back in 2019, Rijo had potential as he was a much different pitcher posting a 3.87 ERA, and struck out 99 batters in 107 innings pitched across 19 starts. 
The Twins parted ways with him in October of this year leaving him as he enters minor league free agency. 
Totals: 
10 players on Active MLB rosters
4 players who could be on Active Rosters but are hurt
16 players who are in the Minors, Japan, or Indy Ball
Fortunately for all of these former Twins prospects, all of them played professional baseball at some level during the 2022 season. Some, like Thorpe and Gonsalves, may be done but have yet to be confirmed.
Others have a ways to go in their career, but the majority look like they’ll be around Major League or Minor League Baseball for the 2023 season. 
 

Reports are starting to surface about the possible path of the Twins taking a “step back” in 2023, with players such as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda starting to draw trade interest. Who could blame teams for asking? It sure appears the Twins had all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket, as just two of the top fifteen free agents remained at the time the Twins got news that their star shortstop had chosen to move to San Francisco.
The twins are left with a strikingly similar roster to their 2022 squad that finished in 3rd place of the soft AL Central, minus their most valuable player of course. Even if they turn to Joey Gallo and trade Max Kepler, it's hard to count on the trade off adding much value unless Gallo rebounds in a major way. With the cost of free agent pitchers and the Twins having three starters set to depart after 2023 in Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it may become tempting as teams begin offering impressive packages to pry them away. It's easy to look at investments in a new catcher and outfielder and see the intent to compete now, but a lack of further success in acquiring players and some tempting trade offers being dangled could definitely sway a team that still looks to be on the bubble. Unless the Twins have plans to replace one of these arms after trading them, this simply cannot be a solution.
Since the end of the 2010 season, the Twins have made the playoffs three times, being swept out on each occasion. They’ve been above .500 four times in those twelve seasons, including a six-year stretch from 2011 to 2016 in which the team was completely irrelevant. Since winning back-to-back AL Central division titles and appearing to be building steam as an up and coming core in 2019 and 2020, they’ve missed the playoffs twice, including in the inaugural expanded playoff season in 2022.
In short, it sure looks a whole lot like Twins fans have spent the majority of the last twelve years in misery. Their only payoff is back-to-back division titles resulting in an immediate exit from the playoffs. Is that the business model the Twins want to present to their fanbase by entering yet another rebuild? The Twins were already publicly disappointed by fan attendance in 2022. It’s safe to imagine those issues accelerating greatly with any steps back in attempting to compete. They also have a TV network negotiation on the horizon, a transaction the Twins will have little leverage in as the viewership numbers almost certainly crater.
From a pure baseball perspective, the Twins are in the easiest division in baseball with two more teams being admitted to the playoffs in the AL moving forward. They have one of the better rotations on paper that they’ve had in recent years. They still have star power and core contributors such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez on the position player side. With just a handful of acquisitions, the Twins could take the projected 78-81 wins they already have currently and easily become competitors. Having spent very little of the assumed $50m or so they had available coming into the offseason, deciding to take the easy way out would be a devastating decision for all parties involved.
The prospect of the Twins actually going this route sounds ridiculous, but you can imagine a situation where they can justify it to themselves. The front office wouldn’t go this route unless they had no concern about losing their jobs. It was very heavily expressed at the end of 2022 that ownership still had faith in Falvey and company. They’ve always operated with an eye on getting value, oftentimes at the expense of acquiring players that actually make the team better.
With the way free agent contracts have blown up on pitchers, this may be the most valuable time in history to trade pitchers such as Gray and Mahle who are only controlled for one year. There could be a scenario where they look at the dwindling free agent market and the likely inflated trade offers they receive and decide to once again side with value over acquiring quality players.
At this point, improving this team is going to hurt and likely draw scrutiny. The majority of impact will have to come from trade at the cost of organizational talent, a disappointing outcome considering the amount of money they should have had to spend on free agents. They did this to themselves though, and the alternative is simply unacceptable in regards to Twins fans who have spent far too much time and money watching a mediocre product. In 2023, a step back simply isn’t an acceptable conclusion.

At the beginning of the offseason, I highlighted Brandon Crawford as one of the three most probable shortstop trade targets for the Twins. Now that Carlos Correa has been signed to supplant the longtime Giants shortstop, it feels like an idea worth revisiting. 
The plan for now, supposedly, is for Crawford to slide to third base and make room for Correa. For Giants fans and followers, it comes as no surprise that the 35-year-old is willing to move away from the only position he's ever known for the good of the team. Crawford is renowned as a top-notch clubhouse fixture and team player.
He's also turning 36 in January, and entering his final season under contract, coming off an underwhelming season for the G-men. Crawford slashed .231/.308/.344 for an 85 OPS+ that ranks among the worst of any season in his career. Nearly all of his value came from fielding, but that value was considerable, with a 93rd percentile OAA contributing to his very respectable 2.0 fWAR.
Crawford has always been a very good shortstop and has never known anything else. His 1,525 defensive starts in the majors have ALL come at short. He's won four Gold Gloves. The idea of him playing elsewhere seems zany in concept, and much more so when you account for the fact that his whole value as a player by this point derives from shortstop defense.
In moving him to the hot corner, they're basically hoping that he'll adapt instantly and become a hugely valuable defender at a position he's never played – or they're hoping his bat rebounds, although he's generally been a pretty average hitter. Both feel like kind of a stretch?
For the Giants, it feels weird to be relying on such a gambit in a season where they've invested so much in pushing hard for immediate contention. For all of his intangible qualities, the on-field reality of Crawford as third baseman on a bonafide contender has the potential to be disastrous, and he'll be making $16 million to boot.
Given their druthers, San Francisco would surely love to unload Crawford on a team that needs a short-term veteran fix at shortstop and has many to burn. Hey! (Cue light bulb clicking.)
Of course, there's a hitch in that plan. Accordant to Major League's Baseball's 10-and-5 rule, Crawford has the ability to veto any trade. He has spent his entire career in San Francisco and is basically an institution there. Even if the Twins would really like to have him, and the Giants would really like to move him, it all comes down to the player himself. 
People who follow the team tell me the idea of Crawford willingly leaving to go to Minnesota for one year at the end of his contract in his age 36 season feels outlandish. And as I type out the sentence, it sure does feel that way. 
But maybe the Twins could sell him on the idea of taking over as unquestioned leader for an upstart hungry squad? A new challenge to round out a commendable career? Or maybe Crawford feels like shortstop is his home more than San Fran?
I'll admit, the whole thing feels like a stretch. But stretching my imagination is all I can do as I try to figure out how the Twins are going to burn their ample remaining funds, while trying to replace even a semblance of what they lost in Correa as clubhouse staple and steady presence at short, without making the gargantuan (IMO ill-advised) commitment it will require to get Dansby Swanson.
 
 

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 

Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
One of the biggest needs for the Twins this winter was catcher, and the team signed veteran catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year deal. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has averaged 128 games while hitting .265/.311/.374 (.685). Defensively, he grades out as an above-average pitch framer and his ability to throw out runners. Even with Vazquez, Jeffers will start 60-70 games behind the plate. This decline in playing time might help him to stay healthy after injuries impacted him in back-to-back seasons. Jeffers is under team control through 2026, so there is still plenty of time to show his value at the big-league level. 

Infielders (5): Luis Arraez, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco 
Minnesota was waiting on a Carlos Correa decision, but he signed a long-term deal with the Giants and that changes Minnesota's infield plans. Rumors have swirled about Luis Arraez being a potential trade piece, so the infield group might undergo multiple changes before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer is the team's lone new addition to this group and projects to be the team's starting shortstop. Jose Miranda is being handed the reins at third base following an inconsistent rookie campaign. Still, the front office has confidence that he can be an above-average big-league player. Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff are returning from injury with the expectation that they will return to health in 2023. 

Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach**
Like with the infield, there is no guarantee this outfield group is finalized at this point in the offseason. Max Kepler's name has been tied to multiple trade rumors, and moving him would free up time in the corner outfield for someone like Matt Wallner. Bryon Buxton will continue to get at-bats in the DH role, so Gilberto Celestino provides some centerfield insurance. It will be intriguing to watch how Nick Gordon responds after posting a 113 OPS+ in his first full big-league season. Like many on the Twins roster, Trevor Larnach is returning from an injury-plagued season. Does Larnach have to enter spring training worried about Wallner taking his roster spot?

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
On paper, Minnesota's starting rotation looks strong, but three of the five pitchers missed significant time with injuries last season. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray were the rotation's stalwarts last season, and they will be relied on heavily again in 2023. If injuries strike, the Twins will use the next-man-up philosophy with pitchers like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic. Minnesota's front office can certainly look to upgrade this group, but Carlos Rodon, the top free-agent starter, is looking for six years or more. The Twins will never commit to a starter that long, especially with Rodon's injury history. Trading for a starter is also an option, but that will take significant prospect capital that the Twins might not be willing to part with after dealing away players at last year's trade deadline. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill**
Minnesota's backend of the bullpen projects to perform well in 2023, with Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez serving as anchors. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Minnesota surprised some by tendering a contract to Emilio Pagan, but the team hopes some of his late-season adjustments will carry over to 2023. Griffin Jax has been working with Driveline Baseball this offseason, which can make him a potential 2023 breakout candidate. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands.      

What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Have the Twins improved this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Word broke on Monday evening that the Twins and Christian Vazquez had agreed to a three-year contract. Catcher was one of the team's glaring needs because Ryan Jeffers was the lone catcher on the 40-man roster. Vazquez and Jeffers don't form a perfect platoon, but each player provides strong defensive skills and the potential for offensive upside. 

Vazquez is 32 years old and served as Boston's primary catcher in recent seasons. He was traded to Houston at last year's trade deadline and helped the Astros to the World Series. Since 2018, he has the fifth-highest defensive runs saved among catchers. Last season, he ranked fifth among AL backstops in SABR's Defensive Index. He ranked in the 71st percentile for pop time to second base and in the 55th percentile in framing.

Offensively, Vazquez compiled strong offensive numbers from 2019-20 with the Red Sox. In 185 games, he hit .278/.327/.472 (.799) with 35 doubles, 30 home runs, and a 105 OPS+. His bat has cooled off over the last two campaigns (257 games) as his OPS+ dipped to 87 with 46 doubles and 15 home runs. Outside of Willson Contreras, he was the best available free-agent catcher. 

Vazquez has started 115 games or more at catcher in three consecutive seasons outside the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. On paper, the Twins are signing a full-time catcher, with Jeffers moving to a backup role. In recent years, the Twins have preferred having a two-catcher rotation with players roughly splitting time. It may be more logical to use Vazquez two-thirds of the time, with Jeffers getting one-third of the starts. 

When the Twins drafted him, many viewed Jeffers as a bat-first college catcher, but Twins scouts saw indications that he could be a very good defensive catcher too. He worked on pitch framing after signing with the Twins and ranked in the 66th percentile last season. Jeffers has yet to replicate his offensive output from his rookie season. In 2020, he hit .273/.355/.436 (.791) with three home runs and a 119 OPS+. Over the last two seasons, he has combined to hit .203/.277/.384 (.661) with an 85 OPS+. Minnesota entered last winter believing Jeffers could take on more of a full-time role, but those plans may have been altered with Vazquez's signing. 

Some thought the Twins might target a left-handed hitting catcher to pair with Jeffers, who is right-handed. It would form a more natural platoon, and Jeffers destroys lefties with an OPS 177 points higher. Vazquez also does better against southpaws, but his .731 OPS is only 49 points higher than when he faces righties. The Twins could try and match up Jeffers against lefties as much as possible, but that takes away favorable at-bats from Vazquez.

Minnesota could also convince Vazquez that playing fewer games can help his overall offensive numbers. If he starts 95 games instead of 115, his legs will have less wear and tear. This switch might help him stay healthy and improve his power numbers. The Twins can plan for Vazquez to start 95 games while Jeffers starts 60 games and other catchers fill in around the margins. 

Unfortunately, injuries are another part of the equation. Vazquez has caught nearly 5,500 innings behind the plate, so he has a lot of miles on his legs. As mentioned above, he has been relatively healthy in recent years. Jeffers has caught 1,329 innings but has never started more than 77 big-league games at catcher (2021 when he made 13 more starts in St. Paul). In 2022, Jeffers missed time with a broken thumb after having minor elbow surgery last offseason. During the 2021 season, he dealt with knee and heel injuries. Minnesota can hope Jeffers is healthy, but he's been limited the last two seasons. 

Vazquez was a clear target for the Twins, but the organization still lacks other options in the high minors. Minnesota will need other veteran options at the big-league level if and when injuries strike. What are your thoughts on the Vazquez signing? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

During the Winter Meetings, baseball organizations spent over $2 billion on player contracts Minnesota sat out on that frenzy, but it’s not as though they won’t still dole out dollars. What they do have going for them is a very clear blueprint as to what type of talent is needed.
Last offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a pact with mid-level starter Dylan Bundy, and then picked Chris Archer off the scrap heap late in the offseason. The hope was that they could provide a level of consistency behind the likes of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, effectively making them mediocre veterans. Coming into this year, the Twins have a stable that includes Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and a few others. They don’t need to clog the back of their rotation with 'mediocre' veterans.
The good news is that those types are costly. Taijuan Walker just got four years and $72 million from the Phillies after posting his first sub-4.00 ERA in a full season since 2017. Former Yankees starter Jameson Taillon was given four years and $68 million by the Cubs following his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2018 and having missed the 2020 season. Zach Eflin, despite his 3.57 FIP the past three seasons, has a 4.49 career ERA and the Tampa Bay Rays handed him $40 million over three seasons. The mid-level pitching market has truly gone bananas.
All of those names could certainly be argued as better than both Bundy and Archer, but the reality is that in recent seasons the Twins front office has needed those types just to get to five arms. In being able to avoid that group entirely, the refrain has been an arm at the level of Sonny Gray or better. There are only so many of those types on the free agent market, but a few remain.
There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities. Each of the types Minnesota now need will come with a price tag, but at least they aren’t paying pennies on the dollar for innings rather than performance.
This is a different scenario for Falvey and Levine to navigate. They pulled off the Gray trade prior to Opening Day last offseason, and they swung big for Tyler Mahle at the deadline. Both of those arms advance the overall ability of the starting rotation, and they have a clear picture of the talent level they must acquire.
We have yet to see the Twins pitching pipeline develop something like a number one starter, although Joe Ryan may someday get there. What it has done is provide a considerable amount of depth with respectable floors for a team that has often churned through arms. Knowing how many different starters took the mound a season ago, the reality is that Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to need at least 10 guys capable of throwing something like 50 innings in 2023.
Sure, the Twins have money to spend, but it is a relief to not need to overspend on a veteran that likely won’t move the needle.