What Would a Perfect Offseason Look Like for the Twins?

This looks viable Cody and is very attractive.  I'd prefer adding more quality to the BP especially after watching the playoff teams this year and if the Twins decide to keep with the philosophy of restricting their starters to only two times through the order.

I like your your thinking & selections, Cody. I see you went strictly the FA route,  I'd lean closer to some trades, just my preference.

Do you really think that Correa would go for $40MM? seems pretty high to me. I could be wrong but would Maeda be able to go 5 inning to begin '23? These adjustments would bring down your orignal estimates.

I'd go more with long RPs, Ober, Winder, Varland, Maeda with SWR waiting in the wings plus have rotating 5th starter. But management hasn't figured that one out yet. Hope it happens but doubt it.

The next time this, or any other team, has a perfect off-season will be the first.  Do we REALLY want to pencil in Larnach & Kiriloff when neither has managed to play as many games in either of their first two seasons as the oft injured Buxton did last year? Mancini's NOT coming here, or anywhere else, for four and a half million dollars.  You're at least 5 and maybe 10 million dollars light on the Rodon number.  This stuff is simple on paper.  Bit tougher in real life.  Is Narvaez REALLY a step up from Sanchez? 

I like the signings of Rodon and Correa. Wonder if the Twins might be able to shake Murphy or/and Jansen loose. 

SS is not our area of most need. You can win with a decent shortstop, and we DID NOT win with Correa in 2022. Neither did any of the LCS teams this year. If you don't spend that money on shortstop (instead, spend a much smaller amount on a decent stopgap, because Lewis and Lee are coming at some point in 2023), you can address some of the other wild shortcomings of your roster.

Narvaez (or Vasquez, I'm not a platoon fetishist) would be nice at catcher. Rodon should be a top priority. But so should another OF of starting quality (like a Benintendi; hit .300 and flashed Gold Glove level D). Any roster with Celestino on it (light-hitting airhead) is weak; dude needs serious AAA time. Also, any lineup that counts on Alex Kirilloff (who is recovering from experimental surgery that cut out bone to make his forearm shorter) is fantasy; he may be great, or he may never play in MLB again. The Twins should keep Urshela, and plan on Miranda mostly at first, unless they do go out and sign Mancini (in which you let Gio go, and play Mancini at 1B and Jose at 3B). Signing Mancini is more plausible without the money going to Correa.

In seven years Narvaez has had one year field ing percentage was above average, this is better than Jeffers how?

His batting and fielding are both worse than Sanchez, getting him would not be an upgrade in any manner.

I like the targets (Correa and Rodon).  I could see the team making ONE big splurge on a FA.  Whether that's Correa (or Bogaerts) or Rodon is yet to be determined.  Correa is FAR superior to Bogaerts with the glove.  Bogaerts "might" have a tiny edge with the bat.  Either would be good, but with Lewis and Lee in the pipeline, the idea of an 8-10 year contract for a SS seems a bad fit.  Neither Lee or Lewis may make it as a SS, but the fact the Twins have TWO solid prospects has me thinking Bogaerts and Senga.  Both are the cheaper option leaving the Twins with a little more payroll flexibility.

But if the Twins were to bring back Correa on a 3-year $120 or a 4-year $150 deal I would like to see the Twins be aggressive on the trade market.

Put a deal together with Toronto for Jansen 26.6 and Lourdes Gurriel 5.6 (BTV).  Total 32.20  The Twins deal Larnach 30.4 and Enlow 2.2 for a total of 32.40.  You now have Jansen behind the plate and Lourdes Gurriel a RH bat in LF.   

Then, I call the Brewers and offer Ober 19.50, Jeffers 13.0 and Winder 8.3  (total 40.8) for Brandon Woodruff 37.8 (BTV).

Twins now have the following lineup:  C Janson, 1B Arraez, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Urshela, LF Gurriel, CF Buxton, RF Wallner, Miranda DH.  Kepler is 4th OF'er as a defensive replacement for Wallner and primary Buxton backup for CF.  Gordon is also an outfield/infield backup.   Kirilloff is in this lineup either at 1B or RF depending on his recovery.  If he's healthy, he will hit, and somebody will sit.  By dealing Jeffers I have no backup catcher (Brewers need a catcher for the future).  I'll pick up a Jason Castro type for pennies.

Pitching staff SP's:  Woodruff, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan.  With Woodruff, you have stability at the top.  Varland & SWR would be available for spot starts or win long relief/piggyback jobs with Mahle and Maeda needing to be built up.

Duran and Lopez head a BP that also features Jax, Theilbar, Alcala, with Megill and Sands.

I don't know what that total payroll is, but I don't think it's over $150 million.  Depending on how much money I have left to spend (if I indeed have any) a guy like Senga intrigues me to replace Maeda in the rotation while Kenta ramps up.

In the end, I've added an ACE (that term is debatable I know), a starting caliber catcher, a RH bat for the outfield and a cornerstone Gold Glove, clutch hitting SS.  A team like that should hold Twins fans interest into September and hopefully beyond and could certainly compete with the Guardians and White Sox.  It's a plan for the NOW and for the future as Lewis and Lee emerge.  

This is not the blueprint I put together simply because I felt I had to create one that didn't include Correa. But if I could do one that I WANT to have happen, this would come pretty darn close. (I may feel compelled to do another one).

A couple notes:

1] I like the Mancini signing and hadn't thought about him. I went $10M for Haniger, but I like the Mancini idea as well, and at a lower cost. Very interesting.

2] IMO, and blueprint, I cheated and kept Ober in a 6 man rotation as I'm playing devil's advocate and expecting someone to be hurt or dinged at any one time. To me, you place Moran in to his BP slot. And I'd place a healthy Winder in the pen over either Sands or Megill. After that, it's open competition for someone to join Winder, which changes if the Twins can squeeze another $5-6M in somewhere to bring back Fulmer, or someone comparable. (Leaning to brining Hand back home to Minnesota).

3] PAYROLL is hard to speculate, but agree it needs to bump, and I suspect it will. I've been using a flat $140M with a fair 5% bump that should just be an "average" expected bump. That allows $147M. That gives the Twins approximately $52M to spend. Making some aggressive as well as smart moves to re-tool means saying goodbye to Urshela and Kepler in trades. That's another $18M to spend, or a total of $70M total. Sounds crazy, right?

a] IF Correa is a full $35M per, and Rodon signs for a Gausman/Ray deal, that accounts for $58M. That leaves $12M, in this potential scenario, for a 2nd catcher, a RH bat, and one more quality BP arm. That's cutting things really close/fine. But Mancini, Narvaez and Fulmer back is only a small squeeze to hit $150M, which should place them about the middle of MLB ranking somewhere around 14th-16th place in total payroll.

b] In regard to the listed payroll, Dobnak's $1.5M counts toward 2023, (And he might still turn out to be helpful, if fully recovered), as does the $3M for Paddack. But the other $4.5M you listed counts backward to 2022. So there is another $4.5M, in this scenario, that can be added towards another addition. Perhaps a little more if Correa isn't front loaded.

I think the Twins will have Moran and Stashak for the pen next year.  while Stashak gets injured every year, he still will cost less than 1 million next season.  I want the Twins to have lots of rotation and bullpen options for next season.  It looks like they will.  I would like to see them sign a bullpen arm whether it be Fulmer, Hand, Rogers, or Jansen or Kimbrel, or Roberstson, or......  

I think Correa will sign for less than 40 million per season.  I think an 8 or 9 year deal in the 33-36 million range gets the job done.  (obviously with options, buyouts, and opt outs)

Rodon will likely cost closer to the 25-30 million range over 4-5 seasons.  expect to pay in the 120-150 million range for 4-5 seasons to get him.  

Mancini will probably cost in the 2 year 16-20 million range.  (He is still a good get at the expense of Kepler.  an exchange of defense for more offense)

I would find a way to keep Urshala as he seems to be solid on both sides of the ball which is a Twins type of player.  Kepler on the other hand has not produced enough offense to justify staying in the lineup.  

For C I am not opposed to trading.  Oakland is rebuilding and I think they have a good C we could acquire for some good prospects.  Sean Murphy for Wallner or Eduord Julien and Varland or SWR with a low A lotto player?  I know Oakland will want major league ready prospects.  

The perfect off-season for me would be Rodon / Hanigar / Narvaez and about $15M spent on the BP.

They won't compete with the high revenue teams for Correa.  Houston has been one of the very best run teams in MLB and they let him go even though they have $60-80M more in revenue as compared to the twins.  That should cause us to ask if spending $300M on Correa is a good idea.  Never going to happen!

Your plan is good if we can resign correa. However they list rondon at a higher pay. And he is the true ace available. He should be bid on by a few teams. The only problem I can see is kirloff may have issues with his wrist. They are not sure how effective he will be. Also we know Buxton will need some games at d.h. So arraez will be back at first sometimes. Also I would like to see the twins get a guy  like Joe mantiply from Arizona. They need a third baseman badly. Maybe we could make a deal. If correa falls thru. We need a stop gap  till Royce is back.then we could spend bigger money and make a bold move like getting the cubs catcher. It's just an idea.

I enjoyed this - that does not mean I agree, but I like your logic and approach.

I have Ryan ranked higher as a SP. Correa won't be back. I see Kepler coming back for one more year without the defensive shift. Rodon would be great but we don't need him. What we do need is long term health and better coaching/managing/training room personnel. let the SPs go more than 5 innings when they're in the groove. Manage the way Gordon Lish edits, by deep instinct and not by computer algorithms. We have the players to get us where we want to be. They won't get us there if miscoached or allowed to fester on the IL too often.

4 hours ago, PatPfund said:

SS is not our area of most need. You can win with a decent shortstop, and we DID NOT win with Correa in 2022. Neither did any of the LCS teams this year. If you don't spend that money on shortstop (instead, spend a much smaller amount on a decent stopgap, because Lewis and Lee are coming at some point in 2023), you can address some of the other wild shortcomings of your roster.

Narvaez (or Vasquez, I'm not a platoon fetishist) would be nice at catcher. Rodon should be a top priority. But so should another OF of starting quality (like a Benintendi; hit .300 and flashed Gold Glove level D). Any roster with Celestino on it (light-hitting airhead) is weak; dude needs serious AAA time. Also, any lineup that counts on Alex Kirilloff (who is recovering from experimental surgery that cut out bone to make his forearm shorter) is fantasy; he may be great, or he may never play in MLB again. The Twins should keep Urshela, and plan on Miranda mostly at first, unless they do go out and sign Mancini (in which you let Gio go, and play Mancini at 1B and Jose at 3B). Signing Mancini is more plausible without the money going to Correa.

I worried about Kirilloff's surgery a lot more before I read that Kurt Gibson had the same procedure way back when. Gibson went on to have a pretty good career. It's one bone in the forearm that they shorten by the width of a saw blade to relieve pressure on the end of the bone.

To me, the only plan that matters is the one in the front office.  And I suspect that plan has versions B, C, D and more.  
 

I hope like heck they don’t bring Correa back if it requires an 8 to 10 year deal.   Also add me to the group who wants to see them strengthen the bullpen and find a real upgrade at catcher.  As for shortstop, I am fine with a solid defender covering until Lewis or Lee is ready.

I will also be surprised if the payroll exceeds last year.  If Correa is gone, I see the payroll going down by at least $10M.

What possible good does it do to pay Correa so much that it leaves very little for the many areas of need on this team?  Tying up that much money for several years will just maintain our mediocrity.  If we continue to find bargain basement pitching in the reclamation pile, again and again, there will be no chance to be a serious consistent contender.  

Signing both Correa and Rodon?  Why not throw in Judge?

14 hours ago, Fred said:

I worried about Kirilloff's surgery a lot more before I read that Kurt Gibson had the same procedure way back when. Gibson went on to have a pretty good career. It's one bone in the forearm that they shorten by the width of a saw blade to relieve pressure on the end of the bone.

Great for Kirk, but the fact is that it is radical/rarely done surgery. Alex may come back strong, but he also may never come back. Having to pencil a giant question mark like Kirilloff, an oft-injured Larnach, and a recent AA grad in Wallner in as a third of your starting lineup, while leaving serial screw-up and light-hitting Celestino as a key reserve is precisely why...

spending $35-40 million at shortstop is a BAD IDEA. Not just for the Twins, but for any team not in one of the country's largest markets. (Texas sure was awesome last year, right?)

Spend 1/3-1/4 of that short term on a good stopgap SS, get a starting level OF and C, and re-sign Urshela with the balance. That leaves space for the prospects to develop into starters instead of betting the farm (and season) on them being both healthy and good. Because if they are Plan A, there is no Plan B.

You never did anything to the bullpen. Starters don't go deep anymore and you need a solid pen to go any where in the playoffs. You could save by signing either Turner or Swanson. 

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Signing both Correa and Rodon?  Why not throw in Judge?

Yes, why not. :)

1)  Sign Rodon and put Maeda in the bullpen. 2) Put Julian or Martin or Larnach or Kirilloff in the OF. 3)Trade Kep and Pagan for flame throwing prospects. Let Ober start. Sign  Navarez or Vazquez to catch with Jeffers as backup. I would really like to have Correa, and would encourage the Twins to sign him  for the next 8 years for whatever the cost may be. It's not my money.

My definition of a perfect offseason would be for Buck, Maeda, Alcala, Larnach, Kirilloff, Mahle, Polanco, Arraez, Gray, Jeffers and Lopez to all report healthy to spring training. Sign Rodan, Correa, Vazquez and Judge. Hey, before you criticize me, you asked what my perfect off season would be.

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Signing both Correa and Rodon?  Why not throw in Judge?

I prefer to look at it as signing both Carlos's that way it still looks realistic.  

Sign Rodon. For as much as it takes under 30 mil a year. Make a play in the trade market for Sean Murphy or Danny Jansen at C. Elvis Andrus or similar at SS. Mancini or similar as an extra OF. Bullpen arm.

I started out thinking I like this, but then got to Rodon.

First, we aren't getting him for $21M.  Not because he deserves more, but as lefty with 2 back-to-back really good years there will be a bidding contest.

Also, a $15-$20M+ starting pitcher normally is not going to be the Shut Down Ace you are looking for in a team with pitching lined up from #2 on down.  

I'd rather see DeGromm than Rodon.  I think my offseason chart had us at around $160M.  A 3-year/$120M deal for DeGromm (if it goes bad, you're not burdened with too many extra years hanging around your neck.

A $40M/year deal for C4. I looked at a similar SS in size and age as C4 and looked at results over the next 10 years.  There is a very good comparison to be made with C4 and Cal Ripken, Jr.  Leadership, size, BA, WAR leading up to their age 28 season, etc...

I do like the idea of Trey Mancini.  Never thought of him as a RH OF option.

Also, Ryan is my #2 with everyone else sliding down a slot and the #5 is between Ober/Maeda with the edge going to Ober to start the season.  Typically, it is year 2 after the TJ that a pitcher returns to complete form.