Should These Twins Free Agents Stay or Go?

If we sign any FA I don`t think it`d be more than 1 yr. except maybe Clippard. I`d like & have a good chance of signing Cruz & Odo. I like May but I feel he`ll want to test the waters. If they are dead set not bringing up Lewis they`ll need to bring back Gonzalaz if the price is right. I`d not bring back Romo

Romo, Avila and Gonzalez...go. Adrianza, resign if it can be done for a cost similar to 2020. Try to resign both Clippard and May with Clippard on a deal similar to 2020 and May up to $5M per for a couple years. Try to get Odorizzi on a one or two year deal for up to five million less than last year's QO.  Resign Hill if you can do it on a one year deal for a couple million max. Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one.

A lot of free agency forecasting articles have cited that the DH will continue to exist in both leagues in 2021. No one has said this publicly yet, right? Do we know when an announcement might happen? As far as Cruz goes, at any rate, totally agree with: 

Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one.

There might be some recency bias with Romo's struggles in the playoffs causing some of us to think his season was worse than it really was, but it seems like picking up his option is a big risk of paying for decline. The buyout isn't an onerous amount. Use what would be Romo's salary to give Clippard a little raise if he wants to come back. 

I hope the Twins engage May about a deal, but I think someone else will end up offering him more - although depending on how teams behave after this oddball season, the middle of the free-agent market where he is might get squeezed. But he's young enough and successful enough that I think someone will pay him.

I imagine Odorizzi may want another one-year contract to play a healthy year and then hit the market again, and I imagine the Twins might prefer to sign him for multiple years, but I'd be happy to see either if he wants to return. He's fairly young, he has something to prove about his health, and he had the best season of his career in MN. It seems to make a lot of sense.

Great job last night, enjoyed it. I am for putting the Twins money towards pitching, seems to be weaker with MLB ready prospects. Not a fan of signing aging pitchers, no Hill or Romo, apprehensive about Clippard. Add FA starter-Odorizzi? and closer. Hitting may be some drop off from Cruz and Rosario with young players, hope would not be worse than Marwin, Avila, and Adrianza. May be able to find cheap FA shortstop, infield player. Difficult to predict FA market this year, may be some bargains out there.

I'd like to try and get Cruz and Clippard back. I do want May back, but multi-year reliever deals so rarely work that I'd be cautious.

Let me preface this by saying I love Cruz, and I value known production.

But.

Not signing Cruz, in addition to saving money for other needs, would also make it possible to find room and playing time for all of our MLB-ready hitting prospects, plus both catchers, while also leaving room on the roster for glove-first utility players.

Thus it could improve our defense, our lineup flexibility, and our player development.

One could imagine the following hitters on the roster:

Rooker

Garver

Sano

Arraez

Donaldson

Polanco

Kiriloff

Buxton

Kepler

--

Jeffers

Larnach

Lewis/FA (note Lewis could play good defense at either CF or SS)

Gordon/FA

Clippard - definitely sign

May - probably sign if the cost isn't outrageous

The rest I think we can replace internally for the most part. Cruz is great but I think one of the easiest to replace. He also can't keep it up forever! We do need a good utility man for the infield. But I think we can get at least as good internally as how Gonzalez and Adrianza played. Odorizzi was a no-op this year. If he comes back on a cheap one year deal that would be OK. And Romo and Hill are replaceable. This frees up some money for a good free agent at the position of choice or generally helps to lower the payroll in a year that will for sure be one in which the Twins like most teams will cost cut.

If the price/length is right, I'd consider:

Clippard

May

I think there's a good shot at Odo on a reclamation deal. Huge win for the Twins on the QO situation. He'll be cheap and he seems happy here.

Absolutely on Cruz, unless he's seeking 3 years. Which seems unlikely.

Try and bring back May and offer him a chance to start. (Give Duffy a chance to start also, if he wishes.)

How many of our Free Agent eligible players try and find jobs elsewhere will tell us a great deal about how the players feel about Rocco & his coaches + how they feel about our front office.  If there seems to be a push to escape, they will be signalling that things are not so pleasant as they seem. I watched all the games on TV and the clubhouse seemed a happy enough place. But this was a crazy year with severe restrictions on the players movements which could distort how the players feel about the year and the Twins.

I wouldn't mind spending on Clippard. Effective lefty's are always hard to find.

Cruz blocks some of our young players from getting AB from the DH spot, but Cruz seems to be the glue that keeps the clubhouse loose.  Didn't you love the Homer Rove?  We can only trust that Falvine will make the right call here.

and that leaves Rich Hill.  I enjoyed watching him pitch in September.  I still remember Jamie Moyer.  I'll leave this one in the hands of Falvine and yell at them in the next offseason if they get it wrong. 

As for Romo, Avila, Gonzalez & Adriianza lets spend that money on a replacement for Berrios. Berrios has shown no indication that he is going to stay, so they might as well trade Berrios and Rosario for pitching prospects.  Bring up Royce Lewis and Gordon to replace Gonzalez and Adrianza and we'll find out if they can hit in the major leagues.

May, Clippard, Odorizzi: Try to keep. Clippard probably just for one year but May and Odorizzi for two or more.

Hill, Cruz: 1 year only, and only if a very team-friendly contract. They are too close to falling off the cliff.

Romo, Avila, Adrianza, Gonzalez: Thank them for their contributions and wish them well on their future endeavors elsewhere.

Let me preface this by saying I love Cruz, and I value known production.

 

But.

 

Not signing Cruz, in addition to saving money for other needs, would also make it possible to find room and playing time for all of our MLB-ready hitting prospects, plus both catchers, while also leaving room on the roster for glove-first utility players.

 

Thus it could improve our defense, our lineup flexibility, and our player development.

 

One could imagine the following hitters on the roster:

 

Rooker

Garver

Sano

Arraez

Donaldson

Polanco

Kiriloff

Buxton

Kepler

--

Jeffers

Larnach

Lewis/FA (note Lewis could play good defense at either CF or SS)

Gordon/FA

A whole bunch of unproven players on this roster. And I don’t understand the need to turn the #1 prospect into a utility player

Who replaces these guys?

Catcher. Jeffers and Garver. Set. Willians a third backup. You can sign some minor

league free agents. You have nearly $5 mil to spend.

Middle Infield. You have Gordon and Blankenhorn. You have Royce Lewis in the wings. You also have Zander Weil. No need to go big. You can always find a player like Vargas if push comes to shove to also hold you over. The Twins had a variety of names in the minors, Tovar and Maggi. You have some$13 million to spend.

Cruz. Will he keep doing one year deals? Can you get him for $12-15? Does he add leadership? Will he help Sano, his heir apparent? If not, do you buy someone else? Rooker or Kirilloff at first, Sano at DH. That can work. Rosario movement also in the picture.

Odorizzi is a helluva a contract. He will try and get a multi-year (good luck). He is going to be cheap as he strives for a comeback. Already jettisoned Bailey. Hill didn't really increase his value. Is Hill a good stopgap with his experience as you work a rookie arm or two into the rotation. Depends on the overall worth of Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak as possible package tradebait (with Rosario). Do you see any of these three back in 2022 is the bigger question. Yes, with the money spent on Hill/Bailey/Odorizzi you could make a nice one-year offer to Bauer. Be nice to have four experienced arms in the rotation to start the year.

2020 Bullpen: Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Stashak, Wisler, Thielbar, Coulombe. You also have names like Clay, Colina in the wings.

Like a solid rotation arm, I would spend on a closer (if available). I would rather invest in a return of Hendricks than a multi-year with May. I thought May could be the closer of the future, but I don't trust him today, I would like to think that he will sign for 3 years and somewhere in the $15-22 range. I could see the Twins moving on. Clippard was a nice cheap signing, I'm sure he will draw a decent contract for 2021. Nothing like the $2.5, but maybe would go $4. I would not bring back Romo for $5.

What is the fate of Griffin Jax for the Twins?

Depends on our budget for who we can keep this offseason. Top priority has to be resigning Cruz. I think a 1 year with option is a fair deal. Good bye Avila and Marwin Gonzales. Adriana could go either way. I can see us bringing him back on a lower base salary maybe with some incentives and I can see the Twins letting him walk. I do think if I would be a good idea to have a veteran on the bench.

On Pitching, I see us signing Clipper if he is in the 4 million for a season and we should make an effort for May. The Twins strategy revolves around a deep pen. Depending on budget will determine if we keep Room.

For the rotation we have Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, and Dobnak. We also have a few potential starters almost ready for the show. I think we could sign 1 or both of Odorizzi or Hill.

It will be fun to see who they go sign. I think the budget will be a factor in who they sign or resign. I do expect the Twins to let Rosario go to save some money. Its also going to be fun to see who the Twins do target as well.

Goodbye = Romo, Avila, Gonzalez, Hill, 

Come on Back = Clippard, Cruz

If Price is Right = Adrianza, May, Odorizzi

Goodbye: Romo, Avila, Gonzalez

Come on back: Clippard, May, Cruz

If Price is right: Hill, Odorizzi, Adrianza

Please trade: Cave, Rosario, Sano

Please promote as many capable young players as possible.

The Hot Stove could be cold for quite some time. First we need November to clear out and then for a clear plan to be put in place. Until then, money might be tight. Unless.

Unless, the Twins decide to do a little gambling for 2021. At that point everything is in play because certainly there is money in the bank and investments can pay off.

The Twins' free agents are likely to be available for a good price.

Romo-? Clippard -yes. Cruz - hopefully. I like Odorizzi but he should make more cash elsewhere. Everyone else can go. Time for a few young players on the bench, rotating.

I'm hopeful that the team is willing to listen for trade opportunities with everyone. 

It is inconceivable that neither the Astros nor their management received serious penalties for the cheating scandal last year which makes it easy to cheer on the Rays, but I really admire the team approach with two strikes by Houston. The Twins and Rays swing from their heals with two strikes and allow the Astros to get by with inexperienced pitching. Perhaps that can be an idea to look for next spring- swing hard and then put the ball in play as needed.

First, just want to state how much I love and appreciate these video casts. They are a lot of fun and offer some very good insight/debate. I was happy to participate Thursday night in this live offering.

While we have no way to determine 2021 payroll at this time, of course, I hold out optimistic and probably mis-guided hope the FO will find "acceptable financial losses" are in order, combined with window of opportunity, to keep the payroll at status quo. Of course, final numbers may still end up pro-rated without fans and a shorter season, etc. Short-sighted optimist? Probably.

Can't let TWO bats like Cruz AND Rosario BOTH go. You are just relying too much on prospects. Is there a decent, less expensive option in FA to replace Cruz? Maybe. But he bas to remain a priority if the numbers align.

Gone for sure: Hill, Romo and Gonzalez. Assuming Hill wants to keep playing, he's a 1/2 season SP who's velocity and SO continue to decline. Gonzalez is just not the player he was. There are at least a couple options out there that interest me who could take his spot for less. I think it's just time to mkve on from Romo, and not because of a couple bad games at the end of the year. See below.

Probably gone: May, Adrianza and Avilla. Unless May gets a big offer, I'd much rather use Rome's $ for him. Were May a FA from a different team, many perspectives on him woukd be different. We remember that bad appearances and too easily forget velocity, SO's, etc. Adrianza back for the same $ or a little less should be considered. The glove is still there. He could be an excellent 2nd utility player beyond a Marwin replacement. Two solid years with the bat and a horrible 2020. Who is the real Adrianza? I could see a 1yr deal. I think Avilla is gone unless he's willing to take a much smaller 1yr deal to provide depth and experience. I'm honestly thinking he will be looking at a split contract with a MLB invite.

Back if you can swing it: Odorizzi. Unless the Twins can pull off another similar Oddo or Maeda trade, who is another quality SP option better than Oddo himself? Is it a 1yr make good or a multi-year offer I'm not sure. The guy might not match Maeda or Berrios, of course, but combined with Pineda, we have a quality 1-4. Again, barring a smart and nice trade, who is a better option?

Fitting all of this in a $125M payroll will be hard. But makes the most sense to me if possible.

First, just want to state how much I love and appreciate these video casts. They are a lot of fun and offer some very good insight/debate. I was happy to participate Thursday night in this live offering.

 

While we have no way to determine 2021 payroll at this time, of course, I hold out optimistic and probably mis-guided hope the FO will find "acceptable financial losses" are in order, combined with window of opportunity, to keep the payroll at status quo. Of course, final numbers may still end up pro-rated without fans and a shorter season, etc. Short-sighted optimist? Probably.

 

Can't let TWO bats like Cruz AND Rosario BOTH go. You are just relying too much on prospects. Is there a decent, less expensive option in FA to replace Cruz? Maybe. But he bas to remain a priority if the numbers align.

 

Gone for sure: Hill, Romo and Gonzalez. Assuming Hill wants to keep playing, he's a 1/2 season SP who's velocity and SO continue to decline. Gonzalez is just not the player he was. There are at least a couple options out there that interest me who could take his spot for less. I think it's just time to mkve on from Romo, and not because of a couple bad games at the end of the year. See below.

 

Probably gone: May, Adrianza and Avilla. Unless May gets a big offer, I'd much rather use Rome's $ for him. Were May a FA from a different team, many perspectives on him woukd be different. We remember that bad appearances and too easily forget velocity, SO's, etc. Adrianza back for the same $ or a little less should be considered. The glove is still there. He could be an excellent 2nd utility player beyond a Marwin replacement. Two solid years with the bat and a horrible 2020. Who is the real Adrianza? I could see a 1yr deal. I think Avilla is gone unless he's willing to take a much smaller 1yr deal to provide depth and experience. I'm honestly thinking he will be looking at a split contract with a MLB invite.

 

Back if you can swing it: Odorizzi. Unless the Twins can pull off another similar Oddo or Maeda trade, who is another quality SP option better than Oddo himself? Is it a 1yr make good or a multi-year offer I'm not sure. The guy might not match Maeda or Berrios, of course, but combined with Pineda, we have a quality 1-4. Again, barring a smart and nice trade, who is a better option?

 

Fitting all of this in a $125M payroll will be hard. But makes the most sense to me if possible.

I think a reasonable 2-yr deal with Odo to be your #4 starter makes some sense.  After watching this FO last three years, I'd guess May, Cruz, Clippard (possibly in that order) stay.  Adrianza is a cheap Utility and plays pretty good defense could be kept.  The rest I think are gone.

A lot depends on the Rosario decision.  Can you get anything for him?.  For me, too many clubs will cut payroll and think Twins will let Rosario go to offer much.  

Cruz needs to be brought back unless he wants a two year deal and if the NL has the DH, he will probably get just under $30 million for the 2 years.  He likes it here, so maybe he will take a bit less.  

May will probably get more elsewhere and Romo, Gonzalez, and Adrianzia is also gone.  Gordon might be able to handle one UT position, and I would expect the maybe you can get one starter (not Smeltzer) from the minor league rosters.  Hill or Odo, might be in play, but expect more that Hill might be the choice.  

Twins need one more or two more A relievers in FA, and then hope some youngsters make it.  Interesting offseason.

Goodbye = Romo, Avila, Gonzalez, Hill,

Come on Back = Clippard, Cruz

If Price is Right = Adrianza, May, Odorizzi

I view the free agent evaluation much like trades with other teams.  Using Avila for example, if another catcher is available for a price that the team thinks is a better value, then Avila is "traded" for that one.   (Now, I know the team that just lost the better catcher may not sign Avila, but that's not relevant.)

It's not a perfect analogy, because often a catcher is traded for an outfielder and a prospect.  

JcS

First, much of it depends on cost for many of these players.  For the pitching, I am open to any of the pen guys for right price and Odo as well.  Hill I am ehh on.  If he was a good clubhouse guy I would be willing to try another year with him.  

Cruz, yes I would want him back for not only his potential offense, but he is a good clubhouse guy as well.  Avila I would pass on, unless you trade away Garver then keep Avila or find another of his like.  Gonzalez and Adrianza are both no for me.  They are easy replaced with cheaper options that may be offense upgrades.  You can find similar players on waivers, via cheap trades, or internal.