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For a pitching needy team like the Twins, the non tender deadline is like Christmas. Position players do get cut loose, but they’re oftentimes much less interesting than the arms that find themselves looking for teams for a multitude of reasons. There are three arms in particular that could go a long way in helping fill a needy pitching staff.
LH SP Matthew Boyd
Boyd was once a highly-coveted arm that would have brought in a king's ransom. On Tuesday, the Tigers officially decided to ship him out. One can only assume they’d like a do-over as they’ve now let him go for free. Boyd’s home run issues have simply become too much to overcome these last few years, and he’s now recovering from surgery on his forearm. The projected $7.3m turned out to be enough for the Tigers to finally cut bait.
2021 was a resurgent year for Boyd when he was on the field. He posted a 3.89 ERA in 78 innings. His breaking ball and changeup combo was impressive and more than enough to overcome a flawed fastball that has been crushed in his career. He may not be an arm the Twins can lean on too heavily coming off injury, but with so many rotation openings there would be nothing wrong with taking a flier on a cheap arm with significant upside who just turned 30 years old.
RH RP Richard Rodriguez
This may have been the most surprising non-tender of the day as Rodriguez was only projected to make $3.1m. He would have cost a heavy prospect package as recently as last offseason, but the Pirates held onto him, eventually dealing him to Atlanta for significantly less down the line. His 2.94 ERA was not indicative of his performance under the hood, as his strikeouts completely dried up, dropping from 36.6% in 2020 to an absurd 16.7% in 2021. It’s hard to fathom such a drop off in a pitcher with such incredible raw stuff. 
The Twins should be heavy on Rodriguez who gutted his way through a successful 2021 in terms of final outcomes and has a history of closing out games. Any return to form on the strikeout rate would give them a tremendous force on the back end of games in a bullpen that let so many opportunities slip away in the last year.
RH SP Chad Kuhl
The moment we’ve all been waiting for. I actually proposed a package deal last winter for both Richard Rodriguez and Kuhl, and here they are for free! (Well, not free, only dollars rather than prospects and dollars.) I may not be GM material, but I do know that the reason I liked Kuhl last winter is still very much relevant. He did not have a good season, still mostly starting games and posting an ERA north of 4.80. He still had a 33.5% whiff rate on his slider and a 44% whiff rate on a changeup that he should probably be throwing more often.
The ship has sailed on Chad Kuhl, the starting pitcher in my mind. Maybe Wes Johnson has other ideas. That being said, he has a five-pitch mix that could easily be trimmed down to two or three with a move to the bullpen. His 94 mph fastball should play up in shorter stints, and he has at least one devastating pitch in the slider, as well as a changeup to mix in. At the very least, Kuhl could be a multi-inning reliever with his pitch mix and still shows signs of being able to figure out how to develop into much more. It's a low risk gamble to take on a pitcher that does a few things extremely well and was cut loose over a projected $2.2m.
While these three stand out as obvious options, there is no shortage of players looking for new teams following tonight's deadline. See the full list of non-tendered players who are now free agents below:
Diamondbacks: Taylor Clark-RHRP
Braves: Johan Camargo-UTIL, Richard Rodriguez, RHRP
Red Sox: Tim Locastro-CF
Tigers: Matt Boyd-LHSP
Angels: Phil Gosselin-2B
Brewers: Dan Vogelbach-1B
Twins: Danny Coulombe-LHRP, Juan Minaya-RHRP, Trevor Megill-RHRP
Marlins: Lewis Brinson-CF (DFAed)
Mets: Robert Gsellman-RHRP
Pirates: Chad Kuhl-RHP
Padres: Jose Castillo-LHRP, Matt Strahm-LHRP, Trey Wingenter-RHRP
Nationals: Ryne Harper-RHRP, Wander Suero-LHRP
 
Are there any other non-tendered players you’d like to see the Twins take a flier on? Let us know below!
 
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Joe Ryan, RH SP
Ryan was one of the key pieces as part of the Nelson Cruz trade and he made his organizational debut last week after returning from the Olympics. His Saints debut was ridiculous as he struck out nine batters in four innings. Ryan, a former water polo player, is known for the life on his fastball and his command of the strike zone. He led the minor-league baseball in strikeout rate in 2019 by fanning 183 batters in 123 2/3 innings. As a 25-year-old, he has already found success in the high minors, and the Twins may want to give him a September audition for the 2022 rotation. 
Jose Miranda, INF
Miranda is having one of the best offensive seasons in team history among players in the high minors, and he is a lock to be the team’s Minor League Player of the Year. There are multiple ways to get him to Minneapolis before the season’s end. Entering 2021, he had struggled with working counts in his favor, which led to a lot of weak contact. Minnesota worked on his approach last season, and the results speak for themselves. St. Paul has been a remarkably better team with Miranda in the line-up, and the team has taken over first place in the division.  
Jovani Moran, LHRP
Moran was left unprotected during this past season’s Rule 5 Draft (and the year before), but he went unselected, which looks like a mistake by MLB’s other organizations. Moran’s stock rose significantly this season as he has compiled strong numbers at Double- and Triple-A. He’s held opponents to hitting .115/.213/.230 (.443) as he has collected 97 strikeouts in 60 innings. His dominant change-up is how he misses bats, as MLB Pipeline calls it a double-plus pitch. Moran is big-league ready, but the Saints are fighting for a division title so the Twins may want to keep him in St. Paul. 
Austin Martin, SS/CF
Martin, one of the pieces of the Jose Berrios trade, is the only player on this list not at Triple-A. He has been playing well at Double-A, and the argument can be made for him as the organization’s top prospect. He is an on-base machine, but there have been some questions raised this year about his power. Defensively, he can play multiple infield positions and centerfield, so this flexibility can allow him to reach the big leagues more quickly. Minnesota has two series against the Blue Jays near the end of September, and that might make for an intriguing big-league debut for Martin.
There are a few things to consider when looking at the names above. Three of the players are currently at Triple-A, and St. Paul is in the playoff hunt. Also, none of the players are currently on the 40-man roster, but all but Martin will need to be added this winter. There will be plenty of 40-man roster clean-up to do during the off-season, so the team might not want to add another wrinkle to that equation. 
All four of these players look more than ready to help the big-league squad. Now the question remains, who will be the first to make it to the show?

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Never a top prospect or one worthy of national attention, Arraez has long gone about his business quietly. He put up a .331 average across more than 300 minor league games, and the Venezuelan has continued to replicate that success at the Major League level. He’s a second baseman by trade, but not in the same vein that Minnesota has seen in recent seasons. He’s not a great defender, but it matters a whole lot less when the stick keeps him producing.
Ever since Jorge Polanco moved off of shortstop for the Twins and Josh Donaldson took over at the hot corner, Rocco Baldelli has needed to get creative in deploying his best batting average hitter. Arraez has adapted to playing a utility role, which has included time in the outfield and given some additional rest for a balky knee issue. Playing multiple positions has allowed for offensive flexibility, and really, that’s why he’s here in the first place.
To date Luis Arraez owns a .326/.388/.421 career slash line. The power production will likely never trend towards a .500 slugging mark, but it’s that average that has Twins fans dreaming of two All-Time greats. Rod Carew is a legend among these parts, and the late Tony Gwynn was one of the best pure hitters ever to play the game. Between the two of them, both Hall of Famers, there’s a total of 15 batting titles. Minnesota hasn’t had a player accomplish that feat since future Hall of Famer Joe Mauer did so in 2009.
Dreaming on Arraez with a career trajectory like that of Carew or Gwynn is probably far-fetched, but expecting similar offensive accomplishments is far from hyperbole. Right now, Arraez is just 24-years-old. Carew debuted at 21, while Gwynn showed up at 22. In his first three big-league seasons, the former owned a .299 average, while the latter put up a .329 mark. Both captured their first batting crown in year three.
Right now, Arraez doesn’t have the plate appearances to qualify for the award, but he trails only the Astros Michael Brantley (.325) in the American League. Neither Carew nor Gwynn would win their second award for another three seasons but then did pull off a run of multiple years in a row. Hoping that Arraez takes crowns year over year before grabbing his first is putting the cart before the horse, but it’s clear the recipe is there.
Carew had virtually the same strikeout to walk tallies, while Gwynn loaded up on free passes and went back to the dugout just over half as often. Minnesota’s two-bagger owns the same on-base percentage as the Padres legend, and the parallels run deep between this threesome. If we can separate career expectations from production viewed at the moment in time, it’s fun to see just how closely this trio is related.
There’s a lot of career left for Luis Arraez, and as long as the knee issues subside or stay at bay, there’s plenty of reason to believe that one thing he’ll always do is hit for average. Maybe Minnesota wasn’t banking on him working out like this, but he’s made his mark and established it as truth. This is the type of guy you describe as rolling out of bed and being ready to hit. He’ll continue to put up the numbers in a Twins uniform, and one can only hope that there’s a shoulder full of batting titles at rest when it’s all said and done.
Make no mistake about it, comparing Arraez to the best average hitters of All-Time is fairer than you may think. He’s got the goods, and they keep on coming.
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Falvey took over a 100-loss team and turned it into a 100-win team just three seasons later. Even with this poor start to the 2021 season, the team’s record under his regime is 331-288, a .535 winning percentage. That might not jump off the page — it’s an 87-win pace — but keep in mind how bad things were before that. In the six seasons prior to Falvey taking over, the Twins posted a 407-565 record. That’s a .419 winning percentage, or a 68-win pace.
So that’s it, right? Case closed, Falvey has been great for the Minnesota Twins. Well ...
How much of the Twins’ success can be attributed to this front office? That’s a really tricky question to try to answer. If we look at advancements in systems and technology, the Twins are definitely in a much better place than they were in 2016. So is basically every other team in baseball. 
Has this Falvey and Levine-led front office been better than one could expect from a “replacement-level” front office? I think this is a better concept to ponder, as opposed to just comparing them to their direct predecessors. 
Would the Twins have been any more or less successful under another set of front office leaders? Would the organization be any better or worse setup for future success had it been under different leadership? Do we think Falvey and Levine are better than whoever the current up-and-coming front office stars/future GM types are available right now?
This may seem like a weird way to frame the conversation, but why not? It’s just like the players, there are only so many of these jobs.
The overall team success has been there (well, prior to this season) but this front office has not delivered a pitching pipeline nor impact pitching through free agency. About a month ago, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic took a look back at every Falvey-Levine era free agent signing. It wasn’t inspiring. Their record in trades isn’t looking so great, either. 
Falvey and Levine are also no longer the new kids. The Twins have been an incredibly loyal organization, there’s been remarkable consistency in their front office over the past several decades. That’s admirable, but it’s not the way things work elsewhere.
Levine is already in the top half of the most-tenured general managers in baseball, ranking 13th. Here are those who have held their positions longer than Thad. Among the GMs with a longer tenure, seven of them have held their role a mere 15 more months (or less) than Thad has. Just five active general managers have held their positions for six years or more. There’s a lot of turnover.
Things are a little more difficult to measure with Falvey. Front office structure seems to be getting more and more complex with new titles and job roles seeming to be invented each season. Heck, Falvey himself was promoted from the title Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer to President of Baseball Operations back in November of 2019.
I always feel slimy about calling anyone’s job into question. These are people with lives and families. This is how they earn a living. But after having months of bad baseball and being able to ponder about these things I keep coming back to the notion there are only 30 of these jobs. You must perform.
Some may criticize that as too extreme of a “what have you done for me lately” mentality but you tell me, what have they done? The team’s winning percentage since they took over is nice, but it’s difficult to say how much credit they really deserve for that and (sorry, yes, this does have to come up in every conversation) it’s not like it resulted in any postseason success.
This team has the potential to bounce back next year and still have another window of contention, but it’s going to take a good trade deadline followed by a good offseason. Do I trust this front office to deliver in both of those areas?
Thinking about that is what led me to write this, and I encourage you to consider that same question and let me know your thoughts.
Personally, I do not trust them to deliver anymore. I’ve lost faith in this front office. Call that fickle if you’d like, you’re probably right. What can I say? This is what a lost summer can do to a baseball fan.
SEE ALSO
Injuries Don’t Excuse How Bad This Twins Team Has Been | Tom Froemming
How Much Can The Twins Spend This Offseason? | John Bonnes
Revisiting the Shaun Anderson Trade | Cody Pirkl
Do the 2021 Twins Have the Worst Pitching Staff in Team History? | Cody Christie
There's No Easy Way Out of This for the Minnesota Twins | Tom Froemming

LaMonte Wade Jr. was an easy player to like. He slowly worked his way up through the minors over five years using his patient plate approach and solid outfield defense and found himself on the back end of a deep outfield rotation in 2019 and 2020. Nobody expected Wade to be a star player, but he seemed like the kind of solid contributor that fills out the edges of a competitive roster. He slashed .211/.336/.388 in a Twins uniform, played decent defense in the outfield, and even filled in at first base on occasion.
It basically came down to a battle between Wade and Jake Cave for a roster spot last winter. To Cave’s and the Twins credit, he was fantastic, especially against righties prior to his disastrous 2020 season in which he was 18% below league average offensively. Cave’s prior play ultimately won him the roster spot as the Twins rightfully were planning on a rebound. Wade was eventually shipped to San Francisco for a high upside arm in Shaun Anderson.
 
 
Now I like Shaun Anderson despite his struggles in a Twins uniform and I liked the trade at the time. He’s a high octane righty with a nasty slider that he struggles to locate. Plenty of adjustments that can be made. Unfortunately Anderson never figured it out in his brief time with the Twins, as he was claimed off waivers by Texas after posting a 9.35 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 8.2 innings. Meanwhile LaMonte Wade Jr. is slashing .257/.350/.443 with the Giants. No explanation is needed on Jake Cave’s performance.
 
 
This wasn’t a noteworthy outcome in a vacuum, mistakes happen. I find it significant for two reasons however. 
First of all, this move symbolizes the entire offseason in my eyes. Was it an exciting move? No. You could make out what the Twins were trying to do however and it didn’t take much to get excited over someone they handpicked that was so under the radar. The same could be said for the signings of Robles, Happ, Shoemaker, Simmons and Colomé. Much like all of these but Robles however, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the outcome could’ve been worse.
Second, for whatever reason for all of the mistakes that were made this offseason, Shaun Anderson (who has minor league options and is 26 years old) is the first addition the front office has admitted failure on by placing him on waivers. Meanwhile J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alexander Colomé continue to “eat innings” with absolutely zero chance of having any future on this team beyond 2021. It’s simply baffling.
This move didn’t change the course of the Twins success in 2021, but it’s incredibly frustrating because it embodies the offseason perfectly. The majority of this winters acquisitions were sensible at the time but look absolutely horrible in retrospect as pretty much anything that could have gone wrong did.
The result of such a string of lame duck acquisitions leaves Twins fans’ faith wavering, as all of the good will built up throughout 2019 and 2020 was undone in one fell swoop of atrocious pitching additions.
The Twins will enter the 2021 offseason with ample money to spend and plenty of holes to fill. Can so many disastrous moves be chalked up to bad luck? Can Twins fans feel good about an upcoming offseason of acquisitions that will surely be relied upon to get back on track in 2022?
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