Reevaluating the Twins Designated Hitter Strategy for 2023

I was surprised that Arraez led the list of DHing. IMO Gallo, Kepler and Polanco will not see much time at DH

Lefty/righty match ups will be the name of the game.  This gives Rocco more flexibility in "resting" guys....which I like.  Of course, screw flexibility, if you can find Nelson Cruz again.....

If the brain trust believes to start Polanco off slowly because he's not fully healthy  in the legs he will be a primary dh as he is a switch hitter ...

That would be my plan if Polanco  isn't quite 100 percent  ...

Otherwise it will be a committee of players ...

Let's hope Buxton can play the field and just be a centerfielder  ...

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was surprised that Arraez led the list of DHing. IMO Gallo, Kepler and Polanco will not see much time at DH

I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.

I will preach in every format here that Polanco should be the everyday DH. Switch hitter with ongoing injury issues. Plug him in at the 3 spot and play. Imagine if he could play 155 games. We have a ton of options at 2B. This is just too logical... 

Any player whose contributes negative value defensively is a primary candidate to see more time at DH. This explains why Luis Arraez is towards the top of games played at DH. Based on last years defense, Jose Miranda might see more time at DH. Hoping he plays solid D at third. 

I like a regular DH which means I would have had Gallo, Wallner or Larnach there, but I truly hope Buxton does not have the most ABs there. 

26 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.

If they perform like last year their ONLY value will be defense.

I had not really considered Polanco but I can see the logic in what SpecialistSteve said.  I agree with Gallo and Kepler seeing little time at DH.  When they play, their defense is a positive.  Having a Molitor, Cruz, Thome etc... means that guy fills that spot at the highest level.  But absent that, I like the flexibility too.  I'm in the camp that hopes Buxton doesn't have too many DH games for the obvious reasons.  But I'm in favor of anything that gets him to 140+ games.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kirilloff get chances there, but I much prefer him at 1B as much as possible.  

Mentally, the DH is difficult if you don't do it consistently. Rocco hasn't gone with a set lineup since he became the manager. Too much tinkering is not a good thing IMO.

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Lefty/righty match ups will be the name of the game.  This gives Rocco more flexibility in "resting" guys....which I like.  Of course, screw flexibility, if you can find Nelson Cruz again.....

Agree with the last point. I like playing about 8 different DH hitters as much as I liked seeing what seemed like 8 different lead off hitter. To me, this is where you go for raw power. Someone like Wallner who can play against righties and selected lefties. 

It's the only spot you can play a big hitter that is an average fielder. Wallner has a gun for an arm but I wouldn't call him a great outfielder compared to our others.

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

I will preach in every format here that Polanco should be the everyday DH. Switch hitter with ongoing injury issues. Plug him in at the 3 spot and play. Imagine if he could play 155 games. We have a ton of options at 2B. This is just too logical... 

 

Last season I proposed that Arraez play DH the most. I guess the FO listened.

Given that the team does not have a clear power hitter/poor defensive player, the rotation strategy is the best approach.  I do like that it may keep players fresher and ensure that all the hitters get at-bats so that they are not rusty when they do get the call to DH or pinch hit.

I'll take a backward approach to this, as it seems that the bench will be Solano, Farmer, Taylor and Jeffers against RH pitchers, and Kiriloff, Gordon, Vazquez and Kepler/Gallo against LH pitchers.  Variety will ensue, but putting the strongest defensive lineup together would probably have Solano or Farmer as DH and the other as 1B against lefties, and Kepler/Gallo/Gordon (whichever isn't playing a corner that day) against righties.

Polanco can DH and be rested with Farmer or Solano taking his spot, primarily against lefties; Taylor can spell Byron on days he is DH (or an all LH outfield of Kepler, Gallo, Gordon).  Farmer plays 3B and Miranda DHs.  Vazquez will get a few DH spots. 

Ultimately, I see Gordon, Farmer, and Buxton as the most-common DHs the way this lines up, but it will be a potpourri.

Buxton has started 34 games at DH in his career, all of them last season, all of them after he injured himself on an awkward slide into 2B. Those starts at DH were part of the "plan" hatched after that injury to get his bat into the line-up semi-regularly. That plan did not work as Buxton missed time, was unavailable on his days off and eventually underwent season ending knee surgery, something that could have been done in April and had him back on the field in late July/early August.

If healthy, he should start in CF, not at DH. His value is much greater when his bat AND glove are in the line-up. 

I have been shot down here before for suggesting using Polanco as a dh because he makes too much money.

I still like the idea of have a switch hitter there. Polanco fits. Let him find his groove there. Simple.

Prior to Solano being added, my assumption was Larnach 50 starts at DH & Buxton 50 starts at DH. Now, due to options & strategy, Larnach will have to hit .400 in Spring Training with 5HR to make the Big Club out of the gate, unless there is an injury.

Assuming the original roster stays healthy, I see Taylor only in CF if there’s a LH pitcher (42 games). Otherwise, Buxton 80 games & Gordon 40 games.

I see Gallo - Gordon - Kepler v. RH pitching, being outfield combo for a third of the season.

DH turns:

Buxton - 50

Correa - 10

Gallo - 20

Kirilof - 15

Solano - 15

Jeffers - 5

Polanco - 20

Vazquez - 5

Miranda - 10

Gordon - 10..…one thing I think we can agree on is Gordon needs to be in our line-up with a slash v. RH pitching of 289/.329/.465 (.793) for 2nd half of 2022. Kepler & Gallo can’t default into the line-up ahead of that.

Partial “rest days” at DH or “keeping a guy sharp” strategy with so many differing guys.

If Larnach is healthy, and is playing well, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of this DH roll v. RH pitching! Someone else will get hurt or will falter on a relative basis & he’ll be there.

LH pitching line-up since Solano added to roster:

Taylor LF - Buxton CF - Correa SS - Miranda DH  - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - Gallo RF - Solano 1B……….order can be played with after 1st 3 guys but this is a formidable line-up against 25% of the league as LH pitchers.

As long as it is not Cave or Garlick DHing, I'm fine with a rotation especially since there is not a prototypical DH on the roster.

So, who does not DH?  Farmer should be in the field against LH pitching so he does not start any games as DH.  Taylor never.  We will always have better options than Jeffers and Kepler.  Same will probably be true of Solano.  Larnach is probably the hardest to predict of the group.  His appearances in general are hard to predict right now.   Among the rest, I think the number of days at DH go in this order.  Buxton / Miranda / Correa / Gordon and the rest of the group gets a day here and there.

A few things about the DH.

1] Having someone with a special bat like a Cruz as a DH is worth that limited/dedicated roster spot. Otherwise, I've always been in favor of matchups, half days of rest, etc. 

2] I've never felt your PRIMARY DH HAS to be a big, powerful, 30HR bat. For example, let's just say Julien is OK defensively at a couple of spots, but he is a legitimate .285/.350/.450/.800 OPS hitter with speed as well. No problem with someone like him, still young, on a good team with a good lineup, being the PRIMARY DH.

3] DH isn't for everyone. Not everyone performs well in the spot. But from what I've read about previous DH over the years, getting in a routine of just staying warm and engaged on the game and just getting USED to the role makes it easier over time.

Like everyone, I don't want to see Buxton as the most frequent DH as I want him as healthy as possible to be in the field. POWER WISE, there's about 6-7 guys who can produce 20+ HR on the team with health and opportunity. We all know the names. Good chance the catching platoon could produce 20+ HR total. 

Even with hoped for great health for the position players, you're still going to role through a good 15-16 players used. So even if someone like Larnach or AK begin the year at AAA to ramp up, prove themselves 100%, etc, there's going to be plenty of opportunity to contribute in the field and at DH.

I love the lineup with Correa and Polanco in the 2 and 3 spots, as long as Polanco is good to go, even with a gradual ramp up to get him ready. I also love a mix with those 2 and  Buxton rounding out the top 4. But who bats leadoff? While he will also see time in the field and allow someone else a day off, or half day in the DH spot, I can see Gordon at DH quite a bit and hitting at #1 against RHP based not only on what he did in 2022, but how much he improved the 2nd half. He could provide an exciting hit/pop/speed combination to start things off. Possibly Farmer or Solano against LHP, with no real speed, but with the ability to just have a good overall OPS against said arms and help set the table. Remember when Garver was used as a #1 hitter against LHP to provide power/OPS? Maybe Jeffers doing the same at catcher or DH?

I think there's a lot of ways to have a fairly established lineup, still play everyone, and use the DH in a really smart way. 

Buxton’s bat Is not that spectacular against right-handed pitching that you want him DH’ing a ton in that situation (assuming he can run). Incredibly diminished value if you do. Similar to Mauer playing 1B and OPS’ing 750…at last the club waited to his age 31 season for that (and no, it didn’t keep Mauer from getting injuries). No thanks to compromising Buxton at age 29.

On the other hand, against lefties, it would be the perfect opportunity for some rest, if he wants it. But that doesn’t add up to a ton of games at DH.

One underrated factor…with the NL finally going to the DH, there are fewer ‘classic’ (Cruz, Thome, Big Hurt…very good to great aging and/or immobile bats) to go around. Those guys were always somewhat rare obviously, but they were all in the AL. Now MORE teams will have no option but to mix and match.

Whoever Farmer, Gordon, Taylor, Solano replace in the field, that guy should DH. And we should never have more than two of the above in the lineup to start a game, preferably only one...with late inning on-field replacements possible.

That said, if Taylor is indeed a runner, could he become the Twins need for a leadoff hitter.

Be interesting to see the condition of Kirilloff, Polanco, Buxton breaking camp. Buxton may not like playing DH, but then - what?!? DO you play him at a corner outfield? Sit out on the bench? Would be nice to get at least 100 games out of Byron.

Who do we see working themselves into the Twins? Not many alternatives on the 40-man. If we lose a catcher, someone will have to be added. Otherwise it is Lewis and Julien for the infield, and Larnach and Wallner and Celestino for the outfield.

Barring putting guys like Centarino (or Balazovic) on the longterm IL-list (as well as Lewis, where he would get even more major league service time) - there isn't alot of room at the inn, so to speak. Sands, Megil, Pagan?