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Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.
Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 
But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.
We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.
Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.
Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.
Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.
Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.
THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 
 
Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  
Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.
Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.
It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.
The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.
Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.
Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 
The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 
"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 
They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)
Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.
The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

The form and factor of spring training lineups change throughout the Grapefruit League season, but there is a logic to them. Earlier, teams want to give the prospects and invitees a chance to show what they can do. For road games, they want to defer to veterans to avoid long bus trips. Finally, the best hitters want to face the best pitchers to gear up for the regular season.
As a result of these, you can get a sense of what to expect from lineup of your favorite team at various points in the season. In this 2-minute video, I dive into some of the factors that you should anticipate as a fan when you see the starting lineup.
spring_training_Lineups_landscape.mp4
 

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 
Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 
Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 
In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 
As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 
This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 
While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 
Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list.
Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans.
Tyler Mahle
The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle.
Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. 
Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters.
From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud.
Joe Ryan
After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter.
For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch.
Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well.
Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement.
Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

Broadly speaking, that outline covers Chris Paddack, Tyler Mahle, and now López; one could argue that Kenta Maeda fits the mold as well. The idea probably stems from two sources: first, the Twins acknowledging themselves as an undesirable home for arms. Big-name starters have eschewed Minnesota for years. Despite recent infamous twirls with Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, Michael Pineda remains the richest starter to brace the cold under Derek Falvey’s watch. Realizing that players have no say in trades, Falvey and Co. decided to force the issue, utilizing the lack of consent involved in deals to pool together talented arms. 
The second part is the more interesting one—and its assumptions will likely decide how successful the Twins are with their strategy.
Pitching in the modern baseball landscape is—and this is the technical term for it—absolutely bonkers. Arms become studs overnight—hello, Evan Phillips—as hefty advancements in technology make adjustments a science, no longer an art only understood by a few masters of the craft; a good pitching coach must communicate what the computer knows. Good teams aren't alone in claiming these resources; every team in MLB has them. But the most consistent franchises identify players most capable of breaking out, freeing them from the clutches of an ignorant team while reaping the rewards of a flourishing arm. The pickpocketed squad has no clue what happened. The Pirates lose 100 games.
Looking beyond the horrifying societal implications of technological modernity, the scientific pitching movement hasn’t created an abundance of frustratingly talented pitchers—those will always exist—but it has made it tantalizingly irresistible to acquire them. “I can fix him,” thinks a team watching a guy with an ideal fastball get crushed for a 4.70 ERA. Phil Maton has pitched for three teams over six seasons. Phil Maton’s career rWAR is negative. Phil Maton will continue to have a bullpen spot on one of the smartest teams in baseball. Perhaps hearing the same information from a new source proves to be the catalyst. Or, as sports fans have known for decades, a guy just needs a change of scenery. If it doesn't work, the team may look silly, but that's the price of doing business.
Minnesota took this concept and ran with it in 2021. They acquired Paddack, one of the more notorious problems in baseball, pulled some strings on his pitching package, and came out with a renewed starter… until he got injured. Players still have ligaments, after all. They then acquired Mahle, watched him be exactly as maddening as he was in Cincinnati for 16 1/3 innings, and failed to help him realize his potential… because he, too, got injured. This pitching business sounds hazardous. Whether López’s tale differs is up to him and whatever sacrifices the baseball gods choose to accept. 
While Minnesota hasn’t yet experienced success with the plan, other teams have reaped great riches. Perhaps most famously, Houston understood that Gerrit Cole should not be throwing sinkers, thank you very much, and they enjoyed two years of some of the most dominating starting pitching baseball has seen in recent years. Toronto somehow didn’t give up on Robbie Ray, transforming him into a Cy Young winner after a year where he walked nearly 18% of all hitters. Kevin Gausman evolved from pitching in relief for Cincinnati in 2019 into a legitimate Cy Young candidate. 
Minnesota hasn’t yet seen a transformation like the previous arms, but it injuries are the culprit, not poor targeting.
Rather than tinker with potential, why not shoot for the best of the best? For starters, the most impactful arms in the game command a royal ransom in return, something that few teams are ok with meeting these days. You can criticize Minnesota for not going after Zac Gallen, but remember that no team yet has met Arizona's asking price for him; the Twins aren't an anomaly. Also, there just aren't many available aces these days. Sandy Alcántara is going to remain a Marlin for a few years, Milwaukee shut down trade noise, and Oakland is currently a picked-over walrus carcass. Is Cole Irvin your fallback plan?
This isn’t to say that all their pitchers will figure it out eventually because, well, if everyone is super, then no one is. The game is in upside: what can you do in the future with your raw stuff? A player’s past hardly defines them; their measurables reign supreme and the Twins have gathered a hearty assortment of players with fascinating under-the-hood numbers. We shall see if the plan works.
 

My day job is copywriting for a local independent regional craft brewery. That brewery also hosts concerts in its backyard, often featuring popular recording artists from around the world. Occasionally, those shows attract local and even national celebrities.
On Wednesday, popular Sad Dad favorites The National played a killer show there. (If you’ve never heard of them, that’s fine, but just know that Taylor Swift has).
As I wandered around the grounds, one of my friends said, “Hey, Joe Mauer is here.” I didn’t believe them. I guess I don't really know what Joe Mauer's musical tastes are, other than "What You Know" being his walk-up music for 100 years. Then a local journalist mentioned that he chatted with Mauer and his wife for a bit. Given that he covers baseball for his job, I took him at his word. And sure enough, standing there just to my right and towards the front of the stage? Joe Mauer, Cretin-Derham Hall Class of 2001. These are my observations.
He’s tall! You know how some athletes look “normal” on TV because they’re surrounded by absolute leviathans? Joe Mauer is crazy tall! He was wearing a baseball cap. On brand! That’s what he wore at his old job! He did the classic “dad at a rock concert head nod,” for when you’re not going to throw horns or dance, but still want to rock out a little bit without making a scene. Reliable sources tell me his wife is a huge fan of The National and indie rock/alternative in general. I share those interests, which gives me the wild hope that I’ll run into the Mauers at the McLusky show at the Turf Club in December so we can shout along to “Reformed Arsonist Seeks Child Bride.” I didn’t bother him to say hi or buy him a beer. Let the guy enjoy retirement and go to shows. I also remember how much his last contract was worth thanks to years of numbskulls getting mad at him on talk radio and god’s own internet for hitting singles and making $23 million per year. He probably doesn’t need a Furious on the house. That said, Joe, if you’re reading this and want some IPAs, let me know. Perkins has my phone number. There’s no way Joe Mauer is reading this. This also means I didn’t ask him about Rocco pulling Joe Ryan during a no-hit bid. Had I done this, I hope someone reading this would have the decency to beat me to death with a shovel. The last time I saw him in person was the game where he got the concussion that ended his catching career. This was a better day! This was the most famous person I’ve seen at work since Woody Harrelson attended a Gary Clark, Jr. show while in town filming a movie. Apologies to Jason DeRusha, who I think is a very kind man but he wasn't on Cheers.  

2021 and 2022 held a lot of similarities for Trevor Larnach. In both cases, he burst onto the scene showing a glimpse of the lineup-changing hitter he’s capable of being. Unfortunately in both cases he tailed off in his production only for an injury to eventually come out as the main cause. So what do we think of Larnach moving forward?
In 2021 Larnach began his season with a .845 OPS in May before the league adjusted. He posted a .704 mark in June and a brutal .518 in July. He would finish the season in St. Paul eventually being shut down with a hand issue, an injury that turned out to be nagging him for longer than Twins fans had known about.
In 2022 Larnach looked even more encouraging. In March and April, Larnach posted a modest .703 OPS, actually above average for the offensive environment at the time. Then in May he posted an absurd 1.077 OPS. In addition to his hitting, his brief time in the majors was enough for teams to stop running on him in the outfield, as his throwing arm became a weapon against runners trying to get an extra base. Once again, however, he faded off in a huge way, posting an OPS of .429 in June before getting shut down at the end of the month for a core muscle injury he had been dealing with for the entire month.
His timeline was 6-8 weeks putting him at a mid to late August return. At the time of this writing in mid-September, however, Larnach is finally making his first rehab appearance in the minors. With the calendar dwindling, it's likely at this point that Larnach’s 2022 season has come to an end, but he finishes with a modest .231/.306/.406 batting line which was heavily weighed down by a brutal final month. His 1.1 Wins Above Replacement in just 51 games played alludes to the possibility of an everyday regular in the lineup moving forward. But can we trust Larnach to fill such a role?
The first concern at this point has to be health. Larnach has failed to reach 100 games played in each of the last two seasons due to injury. The hand contusion in 2021 may have been a fluke, but 2022's core muscle injury that cost him half the season is more of a concern. Larnach relies on such muscles for every swing he takes, every route to a fly ball he runs, and every rocket he throws into a base. The delay on his return alludes to the Twins making sure he’s at as little risk of aggravating this injury as possible. Headed into 2023 we have to hope it pays off.
The second concern is whether Larnach can consistently channel his talent into on-field production. While injury has hampered his numbers to an extent these last two years, it’s easy to be concerned about him long-term given his swing-and-miss tendencies. Easily the biggest knock on his offensive profile, his incredible power and fantastic eye at the plate can easily be outweighed if he fails to make contact with pitches in the strike zone as we’ve seen at times in his young career.
It would be nice if Larnach was more of a known commodity after two years of MLB exposure, especially given the murky futures of fellow top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Of the three, Larnach appears to be the most stable however due not only to the flashes of offensive and defensive value, but because of the nature of the injuries that have ended each of their seasons.
Headed into 2023 it’s hard to be 100% confident in Larnach, but there has to be some hope that he can be the Opening Day left fielder and hold onto the job for the next 4-5 years. He’s shown a tremendous ceiling but he doesn’t have to reach it to be a valuable player. Max Kepler has spent the last three years providing league average offense at best and has still added value because of his defense. Larnach’s 2022 should provide hope that he can at the very least do the same while providing a much more balanced offensive profile aside from the strikeouts.
Certainly, we have to be disappointed with Larnach’s 2022, but like most disappointing seasons, there are some redeeming qualities. Headed into 2023 it’s hard to argue against handing Larnach the keys to a starting job and seeing if it’s finally the year that it comes together. The Twins don’t have any immediate alternative options and it’s safe to say that if they want to prioritize replacing any outfielder, it should be the aforementioned Max Kepler. Larnach should be given another chance to make himself a piece of the Twins future. Do you agree?
 

Coming into the season, off of a long lockout, the Minnesota Twins were not seen as favorites. Even after signing a superstar in Carlos Correa, the questions about pitching remained. Yes, Sonny Gray was acquired, but Kenta Maeda was expected to be out most of the year, and a young duo in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were expected to carry the load. Bullpen questions remained, and only Joe Smith was brought in to answer them.
After a mediocre first month, Rocco Baldelli had his guys clicking through May. Maybe the one period of relative health throughout the whole season, Minnesota’s manager orchestrated an 18-12 record. It’s been .500 or worse each month since then, and despite the initial expectations, it’s hard to suggest they weren’t raised after Derek Falvey and Thad Levine provided reinforcements at the deadline.
Whether Minnesota claws back and makes the postseason or not, the manager has plenty to sort through this season.
Baldelli has now managed more than 500 games for Minnesota and has accumulated a winning record. His win percentage is .533, well above Ron Gardenhire’s .484, Paul Molitor’s .471, or Tom Kelly’s .478. The Twins have won the division twice during his four-year tenure, and they should be seen as a candidate to do so again in 2023.
It’s not fair to chalk 2022 up as a wash entirely because of injuries. Baldelli has consistently operated with half of his deck, but there’s been ample opportunity to provide better results. It’s probably worth wondering how things would have gone if Minnesota had seen even a slightly better outcome in terms of the guys they’ve lost to injury. It’s also not fair to suggest Baldelli has failed given the hurdles he’s had to clear.
Ultimately a front office wants a manager to be their representative of process in the clubhouse. I think it’s safe to say that Baldelli is in lockstep with his bosses. It’s also more than evident that Baldelli gets along with his players, and has their respect as well. Both of those realities are integral when deciding to keep someone in the position. Unlike Molitor before him, it seems that Baldelli is able to effectively communicate with the guys on the field, and is able to get buy-in when wanting players to try new things.
If the Twins were to change course, it probably would have a ripple effect throughout the clubhouse, and that sort of shakeup may not be beneficial given the youth expected to produce in 2023 and beyond. Consistency among leadership can be viewed as a positive, and Baldelli has already connected with so many that will take on larger roles in the years ahead.
Should Minnesota make a move, and I think there's an opportunity for them to do so, it will come throughout the coaching staff as a whole. Maybe there's opportunity to shore up baserunning or generate a secondary voice in the clubhouse. Pete Maki has been fine in Wes Johnson’s position, but a more established pitching coach makes sense as well. At times throughout this season, it’s seemed the clubhouse needed a more vocal leader to beg for accountability or change. While that’s not Baldelli’s demeanor and isn’t really that of Correa or Byron Buxton, it could be that of a performance coach or someone tabbed with the background solely to rise to the occasion.
We’ll see changes this offseason, there will be more than a few on the coaching staff, but I think it’s safe to say the front office should and will retain their manager.

Annually, FanGraphs creates a top-50 list that ranks players based on their perceived trade value. According to the series, “The central question I considered is straightforward: how much value could a team expect to receive in return for each player on the list? It’s not who would solicit the great number of offers, or the highest average value of the trade offers a team would receive if they put this player on the trading block – it’s who would fetch the highest return if the entire league were making trade bids on each player.”

Players closer to free agency rank lower because the value of their current contract is declining. Stars on big contracts also don’t rank well because there isn’t a lot of surplus value in their production. On the Twins, Carlos Correa fits both of these areas as he is on a large contract and can opt to hit free agency at the season’s conclusion. Other younger players, like Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff, are just starting to come into their own, so their big-league track record makes it harder to predict future value. Again, these aren’t necessarily the players Minnesota will trade before the deadline, but they are the ones that could receive the highest return. So, who are the team’s most valuable trade assets?

5. Max Kepler, RF
Contract Status: Signed thru 2023, 5 yrs/$32.13M (19-23) & 24 team option ($10.00M)
At this point last season, Max Kepler ranked 45th on FanGraphs’ list because he had multiple years of control on a team-friendly deal. He’s having a resurgent offensive season with the second highest OPS+ of his career. Defensively, he may be compiling his best numbers in the field as he is currently on pace to be a Gold Glove finalist in right field. FanGraphs moved him out of their top 50 because he is one year closer to free agency. 

4. Jorge Polanco, 2B
Contract Status: Signed thru 2023, 5 yrs/$25.75M (19-23) & 24-25 vesting/team option ($10.5M/$12M)
Last season, FanGraphs included Jorge Polanco on its honorable mention list because he was close to the same contract situation as Kepler. They dropped him from the list this year, but the author had a tough time leaving him out of the top 50. Polanco has three more years of team control and is underpaid relative to the value he produces. Many teams would be more than happy to regularly plug Polanco’s name into the line-up.  

3. Joe Ryan, SP
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration Eligible, Earliest Free Agency: 2028 
Joe Ryan is one of baseball’s best young starters and is under team control for five more seasons. Minnesota can also pay him close to the league minimum until he becomes arbitration eligible in 2025. It’s still hard to believe the Twins got Ryan for two months of Nelson Cruz, but baseball can be a funny game sometimes. Solid young pitchers under team control are one of baseball’s most valuable assets, and that’s why Ryan ranks higher than the players behind him. 

2. Luis Arraez, UTL
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration Eligible, Earliest Free Agency: 2026
FanGraphs ranks Luis Arraez as having baseball’s 42nd highest trade value, which is quite the jump since he wasn’t even an honorable mention last season. Arraez is near the top of baseball in batting average and on-base percentage while leading the Twins in Baseball-Reference WAR. Arraez loses some overall trade value because he doesn’t have a strong defensive position, and all of his offensive value is tied to one skill. Overall, he’s one of baseball’s best hitters, and he has yet to hit arbitration. 

1. Byron Buxton, CF
Contract Status: Signed thru 2028, 7 yrs/$100M (22-28)
Thankfully, the Twins were able to sign Byron Buxton to a very team-friendly deal for him to remain in Minnesota throughout the prime of his career. Buxton is rewarding the team handsomely with the best season of his career, including his first All-Star appearance. Buxton checks all the boxes regarding trade value as he is one of baseball’s best overall players, and his base salary starts at $15.1 million. Obviously, injuries have been part of Buxton’s professional career, but the Twins have given him regular rest this season, and he has continued to produce. 

How would you rank the Twins according to trade value? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Every year around the Mid-Summer Classic, it can be fun to scroll through the list of former All-Stars for your favorite franchise. There are all-time great players, but there are also some less familiar names like John Roseboro, Ken Landreaux, and Dave Engle. It can be an entertaining review of team history to look back at All-Stars from yesteryear.

I created an entire team roster in the roster below, but there were a few stipulations. Some players on the roster played multiple positions in their careers, but they had to be placed in the position from their All-Star season. Also, a player couldn’t be on the list multiple times. For instance, Johan Santana was great in the 2000s, but he only gets to be in the rotation once. Without further ado, here is the All-Time Twins All-Star Roster.

Catcher: Joe Mauer (2009)
Joe Mauer’s MVP season is one of the best overall seasons in franchise history. In franchise history, there have been seven other All-Star catchers, but none of them compare to Mauer. 

1B: Rod Carew (1977)
Rod Carew’s MVP season in 1977 is hard to top, even with other All-Star sluggers like Justin Morneau, Kent Hrbek, and Bob Allison. Luis Arraez made the 2022 All-Star team at first base, but Carew still gets the nod. 

2B: Chuck Knoblauch (1996)
Minnesota has only had three All-Stars at second base, including Carew, Knoblauch, and Brian Dozier. Fans may forget, but Knoblauch was one of baseball’s best players in the mid-90s as he was elected to the Mid-Summer Classic in four different years. 

3B: Harmon Killebrew (1969)
Harmon Killebrew made the All-Star team at three different positions, but third base was his best spot to crack this roster. During the 1969 season, he won his only MVP and led baseball in home runs (49) and RBI (140). 

SS: Zoilo Versalles (1965)
The 1965 Twins were the first in franchise history to make the World Series, and Versalles can get forgotten among some of the other greats on that squad. He was awarded the AL MVP for his 1965 season, and he’s the only Twins shortstop to make multiple All-Star appearances.

OF: Kirby Puckett (1988), Tony Oliva (1970), Byron Buxton (2022)
For Twins fans, this might be a dream outfield. Kirby Puckett was a 10-time All-Star, and Baseball-Reference pegs his 1988 season as his most valuable (7.8 WAR). Tony Oliva made eight-straight All-Star appearances from 1964-1971, and he compiled a 7.0 WAR in 1970. Byron Buxton is on pace for his best season, and MLB awarded him with his first All-Star start. Other Twins outfielders in the conversation include Torii Hunter and Bob Allison. 

DH: Nelson Cruz (2021)
Nelson Cruz is the only player in Twins history to be selected to the All-Star Game as a designated hitter. He combined for a 129 OPS+ and 32 home runs during the 2021 season. 

Rotation: Johan Santana (2004), Francisco Liriano (2006), Jack Morris (1991), Bert Blyleven (1973), Frank Viola (1988)
It doesn’t get much more exciting than this starting rotation. Johan Santana was arguably the best pitcher on the planet in 2004. By 2006, Francisco Liriano joined Santana and was at the top of the baseball pitching world before his elbow gave out. Frank Viola won the World Series MVP in 1987 and was even better in 1988 by winning the AL Cy Young. Plus, there are two other Hall of Fame pitchers to add to the mix, including Jack Morris from his memorable World Series run and a young Bert Blyleven. Overall, this rotation is stacked. 

Bullpen: Rick Aguilera (1991), Joe Nathan (2004), Jeff Reardon (1988), Glen Perkins (2013), Eddie Guardado (2002)
Minnesota has been lucky to be home to some of baseball’s best closers. Except for Reardon, all these relievers were selected for multiple All-Star Games. It’s hard to imagine the starters listed above needing much help from the bullpen, but this group was dominant in late-inning situations. 

Here is the updated list of the team’s All-Stars directly from the Twins. What changes would you make to this All-Star roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Last week, I named the team's most reliable relievers, which can be an exercise in futility. Relief pitchers deal in small sample sizes, and the Twins' relief core has been subpar for most of the season. Luckily, the offense continues to help the team stay in first place. Here are the hitters with the highest level of trust as the season approaches the All-Star Game. 

5. Max Kepler
Since May 1: 97 wRC+, 065 fWAR
Kepler is having a resurgent offensive season after struggling to repeat his output from the 2019 campaign. His OPS+ is over 110 for the second time in his career as he has been an above-average hitter against right and left-handed pitchers this season. Other younger hitters like Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda are in the conversation for the final spot on this list. Still, Kepler has compiled solid numbers over the whole season that earned him a higher level of trust.  

4. Jorge Polanco
Since May 1: 125 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Polanco recently returned from his first career stint on the IL, and he hasn't missed a beat. There are clearly better hitters on the Twins roster, but he continues to be a solid contributor. In previous seasons, Polanco has been the team's best offensive player, but his movement down this list points to the team's offensive strength. To stay in first, the Twins need contributions up-and-down the line-up, and Polanco has proven to be a tough out no matter where the Twins use him.

3. Byron Buxton
Since May 1: 129 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
The Twins are better with Buxton in the line-up, and that's one of the main reasons the team continues to monitor his playing time. Minnesota needs Buxton healthy and performing at the end of the season when the games are even more critical. He's already set a career-high in home runs as he is on pace to hit over 40 homers. Buxton has been a streaky hitter throughout the season, and that's one of the only reasons he ranks third on this list. 
2. Luis Arraez
Since May 1: 161 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Arraez has been a joy to watch at the plate for the entirety of the season. He leads the American League in batting average and on-base percentage, and national outlets have taken notice of his performance. Injuries forced the team to shift him to a new defensive position, and he continued to hit at a high level. MLB's offensive environment has been down this season, but Arraez continues to be a throwback to a bygone era. He has a chance to make his first All-Star team, and he arguably has been the team's first-half MVP. 
1. Carlos Correa
Since May 1: 161 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
This is why the Twins agreed to give Correa a record average annual salary for an infielder. His slow start is long forgotten as he powers the Twins' offense through some of the most challenging parts of the schedule. Even in his struggles, there were signs of his swing breaking out, and he has shown what he can mean to the middle of a line-up. There is no arguing that Correa is one of baseball's best hitters at a premium defensive position. Fans are aware of his option to opt-out at the season's end, but people should still be able to enjoy what he is bringing to the 2022 Twins. 

How would you rank the team's hitters? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 
 

Depth is vital to any roster trying to stay in contention throughout a 162-game season. Organizations adopt a next-man-up mentality as injuries or poor performance push other players out of the picture. Minnesota has seen this occur multiple times this season, and another player might be ready to step into a second-half role. 

The Twins selected Spencer Steer in the third round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of the University of Oregon. He immediately impacted the organization as he hit .280/.385/.424 (.809) in 64 games between rookie ball and Low-A. Defensively, he played over 120 innings at shortstop, third base, and second base, and it looked like the 2020 season was going to be vital for his development as a prospect. Unfortunately, no minor league games were played that season and Steer didn’t get a plate appearance in his age-22 season. 

As the 2021 season began, the Twins had Steer start the year at High-A, where he was slightly older than the average age of the competition. He posted a .915 OPS in 45 games before being called up to Double-A, where his OPS dropped by over 140 points. Steer accumulated 45 extra-base hits in 110 games which was quite the jump from the power numbers he posted during his collegiate career. Signs pointed to Steer adjusting as a professional, but few predicted what was coming in 2022. 

Steer headed back to Double-A to begin this season, and he destroyed the ball. In 35 games, he hit .307/.385/.591 (.976) with 22 extra-base hits and a 23-to-14 strikeout to walk ratio. Minnesota promoted him to Triple-A, and unlike the 2021 season, he didn’t miss a beat with the change in competition. Since joining the Saints, Steer has a .907 OPS with six doubles and 11 home runs in 28 games. He is 2.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at Triple-A, and he has faced older pitchers in 74% of his at-bats. His succeeding on the doorstep to the big leagues, so a call-up is not out of the question. 

Connecting back to Lewis, Steer is a powerful right-handed bat with the defensive flexibility to play multiple infield positions. Unlike Lewis, Steer has been playing multiple defensive positions throughout his professional career, so there isn’t a learning curve involved with his transition. During the 2022 season, Steer has played over 100 innings at every infield position besides first base. The Twins have other players ahead of Steer on the current depth chart, but one injury may result in the team needing a replacement. 

During the 2021 season, Twins fans watched as Jose Miranda had one of the best minor league seasons in franchise history. At Double- and Triple-A, he posted a .973 OPS with 30 doubles and 32 home runs in 127 games. It seemed like Miranda earned a late-season call-up, but he wasn’t on the 40-man roster, and the Twins didn’t see a reason to rush him. Steer faces the same hurdle as he isn’t on the 40-man roster, and the team isn’t required to move him quickly. 

Steer isn’t considered the same prospect type as Lewis, but that doesn’t mean he can’t help a contending team. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, and Steer has moved his name into the conversation as one of the organization’s best prospects. 

Do you think Steer will make his debut in 2022? Can he help fill the void left by Lewis? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The anterior cruciate ligament, or ACL, is one of the most important structures in the knee as it pertains to athletics. It’s a robust structure comprised primarily of collagen—the compound that gives ligaments and tendons their strength and elasticity—that stabilizes the knee. When the ACL is compromised—either by a partial tear or a complete rupture—the knee becomes much more unstable, particularly with rotation and highly-athletic movements such as cutting and jumping.

During a typical ACL reconstruction procedure, a portion of the athlete’s patellar or hamstring tendon is removed and inserted into the femur (i.e. thigh bone) and tibia (i.e. shin bone) in the location where the ligament was originally located. Over the span of 9-12 months, the tendon transforms structurally until it resembles a ligament—a process known as ligamentization—and the athlete gradually rehabs until they are strong enough to return to play. The majority of athletes will go on to rebound to their prior levels of success and will continue on with their careers without a hitch. But depending on the sport and type of tendon graft utilized, upwards of 6-31% will go on to either re-tear their ACL or rupture the one in their other knee. Such was the case, unfortunately, for Lewis.

The reasons why ACL re-tear rates are so high are myriad, complex, and up for debate. However, one theory that has rise to prominence over the last handful of years involves the compromise of the anterolateral ligament (ALL).

In terms of anatomical discoveries, the ALL is much like that of Big Foot, except if Big Foot was actually real. The ligament was first described in the 1870s by a French surgeon, but was not officially recognized as actually existing as an isolated structure until the early 2010s. While the ACL is the primary stabilizer against rotation in the knee, the ALL is believed to hold a role in rotational stabilization as well. It has been theorized that the ALL likely ruptures along with the ACL and that individuals who do not have their ALL repaired will continue to suffer from some rotational instability in the knee and, thus, be at a greater risk for re-injury.

Now, I don’t know for sure that this is exactly what happened with regard to Lewis. And, frankly, it doesn’t really matter. Subsequent ACL injuries aren’t uncommon. An athlete, surgeon, rehab team, front office, and coaching staff can “do everything right” and ACL re-injuries can still happen. Such is the unfortunate nature of sport.

But what we do know is that the surgery team in Dallas “basically, [did] something with the IT band,” according to Lewis to help “brace” his knee and improve its stability. The “something” he is likely referring to is known as a lateral tenodesis.

The IT band is a long, thick tendinous structure that runs from the hip to just below the knee. It’s most commonly known as a structure that gives long distance runners one heck of a time if they don’t remain flexible, but it also serves as a key attachment point for various lower extremity muscles and assists in moving the leg. 

Due to its inherent strength, it serves as a good candidate for a graft during ACL reconstruction. Additionally, the lower portion of the IT band can be surgically relocated (i.e. tenodesis) to provide rotational stability. In short, the IT band takes over for the compromised ALL to provide extra rotational stability for the knee. 

The long-term outcomes for this procedure in the athletic population, and specifically the MLB population, is unknown, but theoretically it should allow Lewis to return to play with greater stability in the knee. The recovery will still take 9-12 months, but the procedure should not reduce Lewis’s speed or power much beyond the natural regression that is expected with aging. Baseball is a fairly linear sport, which reduces the potential impact of multiple ACL surgeries on performance compared to a sport like basketball that relies on quick pivots, explosive jumping, and constant running to be successful.
 

The Twins hired Derek Falvey (who hired Thad Levine) in the wake of a disastrous 103-loss season in 2016. By that point, the Twins had gone six straight years without making the playoffs, and during that span they lost more games than any team in baseball. 
The following year, Minnesota stunningly reached the postseason as a wild-card team. Then they missed out in 2018, still finishing second, before rebounding in 2019 with one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. The Twins followed in 2020 with another division title. 
To run all that back: this front office took over a team that had gone 407-565 (.419) with zero playoff appearances in its previous six years, and went 300-246 (.549) with three playoff appearances in the next four. 
Does their success owe somewhat to the foundation built before they arrived? Of course. No one would deny that Terry Ryan and Co. had cultivated an impressive nucleus before being ousted. But during those years, the Twins repeatedly failed in the draft, failed in acquisitions, and failed in player development. The results bore that out.
Let's be clear about something here: This current regime was so successful and so impressive through four years that they were repeatedly poached of talent, both in the front office and the coaching staffs they assembled. Not only that, but Falvey and Levine themselves have been courted by big-name franchises like the Red Sox and Phillies. 
What did they say, according to publicized reports on the matter? 
"No thanks, we're going to see through what we're building here."
And so, to see flocks of fans calling for their heads because of one bad season, which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived ... it's a little hard to take. 
Falvey became the youngest head exec in the league when he took Minnesota's top job. Currently he is 38 years old, which is three years younger than the DH he traded to Tampa Bay last month. Up until now he never experienced serious adversity during his tenure, which speaks to how smoothly things have gone in the first four years. 
The same could be said, by the way, for his managerial choice Rocco Baldelli, who was named Manager of the Year in 2019 (as the youngest skipper in baseball, with no experience in the role) and then won a second straight division title in his second season.
These people have shown their mettle. They've won. A lot. I realize they haven't won in the playoffs, and that sucks, but they haven't had nearly the opportunity of their predecessors. 
Are we not going to give them a chance to learn from failure?
Obviously the free agent pitching additions from the past winter have failed at every level. But this front office has made plenty of good and savvy pickups in the past, which helped fuel the success of high-quality staffs the last two years. And in any case, Falvey wasn't really hired to sign pitchers. He was hired to develop them.
On that front, the jury is still out. This operation was four years in when a pandemic came along and wiped out an entire minor-league season. The fact that Minnesota's upper minors are currently loaded with intriguing high-upside arms would suggest the mission was on track, and is just now getting back on the rails. 
Soon we'll start seeing those arms (along with the ones acquired at the deadline this year) ushered into majors, and at that point we'll be able to make real assessments. But until then, you're judging an incomplete project. 
This reassembled baseball ops department has been working ahead of schedule basically since they took over a moribund franchise in despair. They hit a setback this year, and it's been painful. Let's give them a chance to get back on track in the wake of a major disruptive event and humbling follow-up season.
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