Looking for the Next Griffin Jax

Your essay had a secondary impact on my thinking.  I question many of the RP additions to the HOF and this is why.  A failed starter has one good pitch and a possible secondary compliment and he will succeed.  RP is hard to judge.  Cole Sands should not be above Canterino or Ober except those two cannot keep healthy enough for a season.  From this list Henriquez is the one I favor.  

Could Winder be the one after being on the roster, but floundering and injured?  We had great hopes as he went through the minors.  

Actually, who do we think will stay starters as they enter MLB?  Balazovic if he finds himself again, SWR, Varland, Headrick?  

Thanks Cody. While I'd prefer to feel more certainty with the Twins bullpen as we start February, maybe I should start trying to find zen with what is already here. Are the guys left on the FA market as relief pitchers really better than Henriquez or Sands? Perhaps the Twins make the move with these guys and have some nice bullpen depth after all.

I agree with Ober to the pen instead of trying to push up his innings limit. Let’s see what he throws when he’s only got to do an inning or two. Probably more fastball velocity, and maybe he lasts an entire season.

Not a clue, but that is what spring training is for.  With the Lopez trade, however, someone is going to be moved out of the starting rotation.  That is unless they have more early season injuries.  Hopefully, that isn't happening this year.

All of this makes complete sense to me. I really enjoyed the article. Thanks!

Our best two potential home grown starters Ober and Winder both seem like they might not be able to hold up to a starters load which is disappointing.  On the other hand moving them could really strengthen the pen.  Still not sure where our starters are going to come from then.  Varland seems viable maybe SWR but he has been another arm that seems to wear down as the season goes on.  From there you are hoping Balazovich and or Enlow can bounce back otherwise you are waiting on Festa and Raya with Prielipp a bit further behind yet.

Hopefully things break the Twins way for starters at some point.  They should start with 2023 draft by drafting more pitchers than position players. Looks like we have some pretty cool options for the pen if they can perform there.

I am not ready to give up on Ober as a starter just yet.  There are plenty of other guys to audition for those spots. 

Agreed. I think Winder would also look really great out of the bullpen.

Winder, I remember someone saying, Bremmer maybe. That Winder suggested after he went on the injured list the last time there may be something structurally wrong with his shoulder that may keep him from being a starter.

Winder or Sands would be my guess. I think Ober remains a starter (possibly in St. Paul for a time) unless he fails badly in the role.

I'm a firm believer of having our future SP starting out as long relief/ spot starter. Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR are great candidates & should be used in this capacity on the MLB level. Ober should work himself into the rotation pretty quickly, Winder IMO won't get any higher that spot starter. It'd be pretty interesting to see how Varland & SWR do at this capacity before they graduate to the rotation.

Of the names above, I'd go with Henriquez first, then Sands.

Further back, I might start considering Headrick, age 25, probably in double A, as a pitcher who could pitch in relief this year. Although, so far, he does combine a high strikeout rate with a low walk rate as a left handed starter. His total innings worked in the minors is only 175. It would probably take him a couple more year to work up to 350-400 innings.

Pitching out of the bullpen was a path to the starting rotation for many successful MLB pitchers. Johan Santana. Cleveland has used that formula at times. The arms like Ober, Winder, Henriquez, and Sands have value and I'm hoping the Twins have Ober and Winder on the 26 person roster.

The 2023 season should play out quite a bit differently than last year as far as the pitching staff. I expect that a healthy Maeda, Pablo Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are given more innings. Mahle's innings will depend on his shoulder. We have to remember that the Twins were careful with Ryan last year; both Gray and Mahls has some injuries; Bundy and Archer were doing their best on fumes from their former days; and the guys from St. Paul who were given starts were closely monitored. The Twins do not have pitchers who throw 200 innings but a healthy rotation will cover many more innings this year. That will allow for guys like Ober and Winder to be two inning stars out of the pen with occasional starts.

For a couple of reasons they should keep Ober on the starter's path. He has been successful when healthy. He has improved in-season and improved against teams when facing them again. He seems to have the pitch mix to not struggle putting guys away to be versatile in his attack plans. His injuries haven't been shoulder or elbow related, correct? 

I would think they will want to keep Ober stretched out so that he is ready to take over a rotation spot if/when someone goes down.  On the other hand sending a guy down AAA who has been relatively good at the ML level is a slap in the face.  Some here have suggested stacking him and Maeda.  Perhaps that's a good compromise, especially early in the season because the off days give the BP a break.

It's going to be interesting to watch who ends up the front runners for rotation spots between Winder / Varland, Canterino, Balazovic and SWR.  They need to keep the IPs up with the guys most like to take over the rotation spots opened by free agency. hard to say which guys seize the opportunity.  It sure would be nice if this was the year we finally hit on multiple pitchers.  The future would look bright indeed.

  Ober stays in the rotation for the next season or two.  We have 3 free agent starters next offseason so we need as many starters as we can get for next season and beyond.  

Winder, Sands, and Henriquez absolutely belong in the pen.  

I believe Balazovich will bounce back in the rotation as will Enlow.  If not, they can be future bullpenners but not before giving them extra opportunities to stay in the rotation.  

Sands seems like a great Jax 2.0, Henriquez looks more like a long-reliever who can handle 2-3 innings at a time, maybe even have a higher ceiling. Ober seems like the start and could use a long-reliever to back him up, maybe work in the pen could help too, we’ll see

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

sending a guy down AAA who has been relatively good at the ML level is a slap in the face.

I don't see it that way at all. Ober will get innings this season even if he starts in AAA. If he wants to have a guaranteed spot in the rotation he needs to throw 160 effective innings this year. He's never thrown more than 110 in a season. Earn the spot.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see it that way at all. Ober will get innings this season even if he starts in AAA. If he wants to have a guaranteed spot in the rotation he needs to throw 160 effective innings this year. He's never thrown more than 110 in a season. Earn the spot.

I seriously doubt Ober and his teammates sees it that way.  How you or I see it does not matter.  Dealing with the psyche of professional athletes has to be part of the consideration.

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Pitching out of the bullpen was a path to the starting rotation for many successful MLB pitchers. Johan Santana. Cleveland has used that formula at times. The arms like Ober, Winder, Henriquez, and Sands have value and I'm hoping the Twins have Ober and Winder on the 26 person roster.

The 2023 season should play out quite a bit differently than last year as far as the pitching staff. I expect that a healthy Maeda, Pablo Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are given more innings. Mahle's innings will depend on his shoulder. We have to remember that the Twins were careful with Ryan last year; both Gray and Mahls has some injuries; Bundy and Archer were doing their best on fumes from their former days; and the guys from St. Paul who were given starts were closely monitored. The Twins do not have pitchers who throw 200 innings but a healthy rotation will cover many more innings this year. That will allow for guys like Ober and Winder to be two inning stars out of the pen with occasional starts.

Great points.

Its a long season - there is no way (sadly) one or more of Mahle, Maeda, Gray, and even Lopez doesn’t go on the IL for an extended stint. 

The point is that we are likely to get lots of looks at Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR this season.  

Here’s the role that might just best fit Ober if we break camp with our five current starters healthy: tag team starter.

Rocco for sure is going to have Maeda and/or Mahle on a conservative pitch count to start the year.  So team Ober up with either one of those guys, where, let’s say Maeda, gets 70 pitches and hopefully 3-4 innings and Ober follows for another 80 or so pitches (another 4-5 innings).  This is a great way to get Ober his innings/experience, not overtax him, deal with the early season cautiousness, and take pressure off the relief corp. 

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Great points.

Its a long season - there is no way (sadly) one or more of Mahle, Maeda, Gray, and even Lopez doesn’t go on the IL for an extended stint. 

The point is that we are likely to get lots of looks at Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR this season.  

Agreed. I think Ober starts out the year as the #1 in St. Paul unless there is an injury in preseason with one of the top 5. Given Mahle's shoulder, Maeda coming back from TJ, Lopez' injury track record prior to 2022, and Gray's hamstring issues, Ober will get at least 15 MLB starts this year, probably more.  Combined with AAA starts, i see him pitching roughly 120-130 innings this year as we try to build him up for a full starter's load in 2024 at the MLB level. No way he goes to the bullpen.  

Henriquez and Sands both look like long relievers to me and I could even see Henriquez becoming a late inning guy. I think both have value in that role; probably not MLB starters long term. 

Winder is the tough one. He has the arsenal to be an effective 2/3 starter but not the shoulder. I wouldn't be surprised if he made the team in the remaining bullpen spot, and stayed there after injury with Ober, then SWR, then Varland, as the next men up for the rotation. Still, I'd like to give him one more year's try as a starter since good ones are so hard to find. Maybe Ober and Winder in AAA as starters with Henriquez or Sands in the opening day bullpen.  Last chance for Winder. More physical issues this year and he goes to the bullpen. He could be a real asset there long term but let's give him one more chance to hold up as a starter. 

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Here’s the role that might just best fit Ober if we break camp with our five current starters healthy: tag team starter.

Rocco for sure is going to have Maeda and/or Mahle on a conservative pitch count to start the year.  So team Ober up with either one of those guys, where, let’s say Maeda, gets 70 pitches and hopefully 3-4 innings and Ober follows for another 80 or so pitches (another 4-5 innings).  This is a great way to get Ober his innings/experience, not overtax him, deal with the early season cautiousness, and take pressure off the relief corp. 

I kind of like this idea IF we can get away with a 7 man bullpen. that means the other 4 starters have to give us a consistent 6 plus innings to avoid overtaxing a shorter pen. Seems doable for Ryan and Lopez, and maybe Gray, but sounds like a stretch for Mahle. Still, having Maeda and Ober essentially tag team the 5th rotation spot is an interesting idea. Both are unlikely to go more than 125 innings this year coming off of injury so this could really work.   

Sands seems like the best fit for moving to the BP fulltime. Ober I think will remain a starter. Winder and Henriquez I think get another season to figure it out. Like others mentioned with as many as 3 starter spots open in 2024, I'd expect most of the starter prospects will get a longer look.

When is the last time the Twins had this many starter prospects close to or ready to contribute in the bigs?

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

When is the last time the Twins had this many starter prospects close to or ready to contribute in the bigs?

Probably the Baker, Blackburn, Bonser, Garza & Slowey group when Santana was young. They had Radke, Silva, Lohse then too.