Is Joe Ryan Who We Thought He Was?

Good article.  I love Ryan but I don't think he will ever be a front end starter unless his secondary stuff improves, both in quality and location.  Given the fact that they were desperate to have quality starters on the team, fans rushed to annoint him a star last year based on a few games.  Now that the bloom is off the rose a bit, some fans are disappointed in him.  Even if he doesn't improve his secondary offerings, he will still be a quality part of the rotation.  Let's hope he develops into more, but appreciate his talents even if he ends up as a 3 or 4.   

I think he is at best, a low 2 high 3 just because of his make-up and consistency. Now I think another of development with the pitching staff and he should have a servicable secondary pitch. Of course, this all depends on what kind of money the organization is willing to spend this off-season on FA pitching and what they have coming up from the minors.

As of right now he is a very durable player who has minimal time on the IL. So that is something he has going for him. So I would say, unfortunately, for the Twins, he is about the best option we have for the front end of the rotation. Nobody else has stepped up and shown that they deserve the Ace position on the team. But with the amount of pitchers that aren't working deep into the game anymore, it almost seems as if the "Ace" is going away from the game outside of few players who have been around for a long time (Scherzer, Verlander, DeGrom just to name a few). I just think its a shift in the game that has been happening for a few years now. 

He does need to work on off-speed stuff because teams are sitting on it.  They know his fastball is hard to hit, so they just are looking for non fastballs for most part.  However, I think at times the catcher and him are overthinking things.  He needs to work on the off-speed, but in games I say use the fastball until they beat you on it.  What is wrong with throwing it over and over if guys are not hitting it?  Of course he cannot throw it every pitch, but maybe start with off-speed, then pound fast balls the rest of the at bat, or throw the off-speed out of the zone more.  Not a full waste pitch, but work on not trying to throw for strikes as much, and use that to keep the hitter honest, then use the fastball.  Until the league starts to tee off the fastballs, why make major adjustments? 

It is like hitters, they come up, crush fast balls then start missing breaking balls.  They get thrown breaking balls all day long, half the time out of the zone, and until they show they will not chase, pitchers will keep throwing it.  Everyone says Joe needs to throw more off speed because eventually players will hit the fastball, but until that happens why make it easy on the hitters?  Work on the off-speed not in live games or in spring, which remember he did not have much of one this year. 

Contrast Ryan's rookie season with Berrios' and he looks pretty damn good. Yes Berrios was a few years younger. Still Ryan can improve just as Berrios did. Ryan seems to have regained strength since his COVID bout and in his last start was hitting 95 with the fastball, maybe even 96 once, I can't remember. Anyway he needs to work on the off-speed stuff, but there's no reason he can't improve. 

He has been great.  He has thrown a lot of innings for us this year.  He is just tired.  As he has not thrown this many innings before. He will continue to get better each season as long as he can adjust. If we get knocked out the playoffs after this Guardians series this weekend.  I would look to put him on a pitch limit or even skip a start for him to rest.

He is basically what I thought he would, he is a 26 year old rookie so the odds and what he did last year said he should be a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4 and 4.50, and averages about 5 innings a start. He has only really had one real bad game a handful of clunkers and a handful of really top end starts.

If he wants to step it up he has to become more efficient with his pitches, way too many games with really high pitch count and low innings. Next year is the year IMO that really shows who he is, is a 5 inning high pitch count guy, or does he figure it out and pitch a little deeper into games more consistently.

There seems to be a tendency on this site to measure all pitchers against the mythical "Ace" standard. Do we measure all hitters against Judge? If so, we don't have any "real" hitters. Which, incidentally, seems to be more true than not, if we define an "ace" hitter who bats over .300, delivers 100 RBI's and smacks 50 homers a season.

Ryan's a rookie, he's done well and unless he's a total idiot, he'll be even better next season. Will he ever make "Ace"? I don't know and I don't care as long as he wins more games than he loses, keeps the team in games, goes 6 or 7 innings (if Rocco lets him) and shows up every 5th day without spending a month on the IL.

He's always looked like a good #3-4 starter. He doesn't have the stuff of a #1/#2 guy. There's nothing wrong with that, He's extremely valuable to the Twins.

First I must reiterate that Covid has a long term impact if he had a bad case - I know from experience and some heart procedures.  

Second, he is still a rookie and the real question is whether he is open to change and third, do we have the coaches that can help him change?

I expect improvement and also recognize that the team really put the pressure on him to make him our opening day starter and matching him against the best that other teams start.  

I expect next year to have Gray, Mahle, Ryan as our top three.  Then I would love to see Ober and Varland, but who knows.

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

First I must reiterate that Covid has a long term impact if he had a bad case - I know from experience and some heart procedures.  

Second, he is still a rookie and the real question is whether he is open to change and third, do we have the coaches that can help him change?

I expect improvement and also recognize that the team really put the pressure on him to make him our opening day starter and matching him against the best that other teams start.  

I expect next year to have Gray, Mahle, Ryan as our top three.  Then I would love to see Ober and Varland, but who knows.

I think Maeda will presumably make the rotation opening day next year, but who knows. Depth will be needed either way. Paddack also could be a solid #3 but he's a complete wild card with injuries at this point. 

He was our #1 in order starter to begin, which means he was matched up against better pitchers early on. Not that it means a whole lot if only pitching five innings or so.

Mostly a work in progress. He has to master usage of his slider. Just how he spots his fastball, he would have the making of a dynamite closer. But unless he really starts to flounder nd is by-passed by others, he is a solid rotation arm...for now. Mid-order. He also will egt the innings this season, which is a plus.

I also notice that he pitches better when he dominates the speed that he delivers a pitch. Maybe the revised pitch clock, batters staying in the box will help him. I like when he seems to have a thjrowing plan and just does it. But, like in his latest start, someone like Aaron Hicks really worked him in the initial at bat, which seemed to throw him off a bit. Plus the base runner pressure he received is soemthing he has to figure out. 

We forget that he is a rookie. We also have to remember that the pitching rich Rays found him disposable. Which doesn't make him a bad pickup, just not the stud we may think we were getting.

Right now Joe Ryan  is Joe Ryan ...

He has done well at staying off the injured list so he is durable  ....

His fastball is deceptive and his secondary pitches a work in progress  ...

He's had ups and downs since his debut ....

If he is a hard worker he should improve and after 3 years of evaluating him , we will know exactly what he will be ... 

I like him on the mound and won't rate him until I know what his real capabilities are in the next few years, people are to fast to judge someone as a savior  ( Scott  diamond comes to mind )

look forward to him having another good year next season  ....

I agree that Ryan was  a good trade.  I don't think he is ever a #1, but that's just fine.  As I have ommented before--he tends to throw a really flat ball from a low body release which stays on plane pretty much.  That makes his pitches very easy to track.  He compensated for that early in the year by going high, low, in, out per batter---a very Verlander approach.  

Either by frustration or tired arm, he started missing his spots halfways through the season---and probably started overthrowing some to try and compensate.  His velo is not a problem, its currently placement and location, and spotting his non fastballs so they eat the corners instead of the middle of the plate waiting for a fork.  My biggest concern is the Twins have not developed pitchers well.  Ryan is still young.  He needs to find a good mentor to work with this off-season.  I'm not sure that person is on the Twins Staff.  He is definitely worth the work.

As for pitching overall, the FO needs to acknowledge their blindspot and bring in an eye from the Marlins, Guardians or Rays to help them see pitching talent better and set a development program/plan in place.  A few hard throwing relievers are great, but the Twins cannot devlop starters now---and really never have other than Radke, Santana and Berrios.  Berrios would have been a strong #1 with better coaching in the bigs.

I think with Gray, Mahle & Maeda as the top 3 next year, then Ryan can be a very could 4. Like most players give him until his 3rd or 4th year to figure out who he really is. I think he will be a guy who can pitch 180-200 innings and give very consistent good starts.

Ryan has done much better than I expected. Rookie pitchers mostly have moments of difficulty when they pitch through their first year. He is a 26 year old rookie who has to rely on command and control, which he has done reasonably. The better hitters across MLB often don't bite as much on that high fastball from Ryan which reduces his effectiveness against the best lineups. IMHO this makes him a mid rotation (#3/#4) pitcher if he can stay consistent and throw more innings. Ryan has been a pleasant find for the Twins.

He is a solid pitcher who likely won't be out there throwing complete game shutouts every other start.  However, if he can stay healthy and consistently give them 6+ innings while giving up 3 runs or so I call that a very good reliable pitcher.  Many teams have built pitching staffs around guys with high 3 low 4 ERAs who stabilize the rotation.  They can then be supplemented by bringing in the occasional Stud Ace to have around for a few years.  

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

way too many games with really high pitch count and low innings.

Lots of foul balls when he can't get that third strike results in long AB's and less innings.

Ryan looks durable and should be a solid pitcher for us for years.

I feel like Ryan, Mahle, Gray, Ober, Winder, Maeda, Varland, and Paddack (though he'll be coming in later) make up the best starting point for a season that I've seen in a while. Don't see any room at all in there for a bargain-bin reclamation project. Obviously this isn't bulletproof since we have all these guys now and a bunch of them are injured, but if I'm the front office I'm spending my 2023 Happ and Shoemaker money on some relievers who can pitch more than one inning to make up for all these guys who are only going to cover five innings.

I think Ryan is exactly what I expected him to be. A solid #4-5 guy with a ceiling (unlikely to reach it) as a #3. Ryan's offspeed and breaking pitches are pretty limited and that was known when the Twins acquired him. He's a solid back end starter right now. 

I've been really pleased in that, as a rookie, we could have easily seen some real struggles despite his successful, late 2021 appearances. 

I've been a little disappointed in his second half as it sure seemed like his slider was more consistent early on. But I have to wonder if fatigue is part of the issue.

Really, not sure what more could have been expected or hoped for in his rookie season. I like his mentality and intelligence and work ethic. I believe his secondary stuff WILL improve via work and experience. The question remaining, of course, is to what degree.

I just don't believe in overly projecting rookies as being a future this or that or not future this or that. I've seen too many washouts and too many "mid rotation" arms become legit #1-2's to play that game. But just based on what I've seen so far, I think he's probably a really solid/good #3 with a #4 floor. Don't know that he's got the pure stuff to rise to #2 status. Just too much overall improvement needed at this time to climb that high. But I like what I've seen and I think he's got a nice future. 

3 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

  Berrios would have been a strong #1 with better coaching in the bigs.

 

What a dig at the Toronto coaching staff, considering he is having his worst season as a pro while pitching for them.  

5 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

He's always looked like a good #3-4 starter. He doesn't have the stuff of a #1/#2 guy. There's nothing wrong with that, He's extremely valuable to the Twins.

Exactly what I always thought he was and will be. I think next year will be better, and more consistent. I think he will find an out pitch. 

Many fans were/are so desperate for an ace, that whoever seems like the best we have, even if they are really a #3, (like Maeda, and his hot 6 weeks, too), that they want to assign that to our best at the time. Nope. Not me. Aces need no apologists and creative positioning. They slap you in the face with greatness.