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There’s been no shortage of situations that Rocco Baldelli and the front office have had to deal with. Between injury, both short and long term, and recent restrictions, the roster has largely remained in flux. While there’s been contributors from some less than expected names, there’s also been guys performing right to where you would hope they’d be.
Based on fWAR, here are the Twins three leaders from the first third of the season:
Trevor Larnach 1.2 fWAR
Coming into the season there was hope that Alex Kirilloff would return healthy and take a step forward as Minnesota’s left fielder and first basemen. That hasn’t been the case thus far, and Trevor Larnach has risen to the occasion. Early signs suggested there was a breakout for the former top prospect, and now it’s worth wondering just how good he can be. Larnach has always scalded the fastball, but he’s been better against offspeed this season and his .796 OPS represents a 134 OPS+.
Larnach did start slow in the results column, but his process has been strong from the jump. He’s starting to see the ball leave the yard and was arguably Minnesota’s best hitter before landing on the injured list with a groin injury. He’s slumped a bit since returning, but the defense has been a pleasant surprise to his game as well. Both from an OAA (outs above average) and outfield assist perspective, he’s been among the most impressive corner outfielders in the game.
Max Kepler 1.3 fWAR
Playing on the opposite corner of Larnach for most of the season, Kepler is figuring out how to do damage with the deadened baseball. For a guy who has been averse to lifting the leather for so long, he’s seeing results not evident since he earned MVP votes in 2019. Kepler owns a .786 OPS which checks in just behind Larnach in the OPS+ category, registering 133.
Minnesota has always known they could count on Kepler in the outfield, and that’s remained a constant this season. Although left and center have seen rotating faces at times, Kepler has been a mainstay and ultimately a pillar of health. His six home runs through 47 games don’t put him on pace to equal the 36 that went out during the Bomba Squad season, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in the 20’s by the time the dust settles.
Byron Buxton 1.5 fWAR
Minnesota paid the man this offseason, and it’s immediately paid dividends. Very few people in baseball can provide the value Buxton does on a per game basis, and he was again a front running MVP candidate out of the gate. The OPS has dropped down to .802 after a significant slump, but the strong start still has him owning an .833 OPS+ with 12 homers on the year. He shouldn’t have any problem setting a new career high in terms of big flies.
As has been the case throughout his career, Buxton has seen injury impact his performance. He’s playing through knee tendonitis and not being utilized on a daily basis. Despite the management program, it’s an understandable plan with focus being emphasized on having the Twins best talent in the Postseason. A game changer in every aspect of the word, Buxton can be the reason Minnesota wins a series in October this year.
The next highest fWAR this season thus far comes from Opening Day starting pitcher Joe Ryan. He’s helped to validate the belief from the front office this offseason, which has been incredible to see. Although his dominance is noteworthy, it may be fair to argue the next closest hero has been the emergence of Devin Smeltzer. Thrust into the rotation as the Twins saw options dwindle, he’s taken the ball and been incredibly consistent while giving Minnesota good outings and looking better than he ever has at any point in his career.
What are your thoughts? Who would you have as the Twins MVP through the first third of the season? Share your comments below!
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