Are These Twins For Real?

Tough to judge without Correa, Arraez, Larnach and Buxton vs the Astros, but I think the Twins as they are currently structured will at least contend for the Division Title and a WC berth. 

If Buck stays relatively healthy, they are a 'real' contender for the playoffs.

Not a contender for being a 'real' threat in the playoffs this year IMO,  but give this core 1-2 years of experience on top of talent.....absolutely a WS contender too...if Buck stays healthy (which should be added to the end of any prognostic declaration about the Twins  

10 minutes ago, Dave Overlund said:

It's so refreshing to see Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, etc out there rather than Simmons, Cave, Refsnyder, etc. Same for Duran/Colome and Ryan/Shoemaker or Winder/Happ. 

I am fine with hitting bumps on the road when it is for the greater good. 

This is exactly where I'm at.

I think the bumps are to be expected. Unwise to expect 100 games from Buxton, and Miranda and Lewis are just getting their feet wet, and injuries might just do us in, but a lot of young players are learning in the right environment. At max, I see this team regrouping and contending for a WC spot.

BUT, the offense is an issue, and the bottom could drop out with just a few more injuries. Kinda wish I had a crystal ball.

Watching us in comparison with the approach of the Astros was an eye opener.  I judge record against above 500 teams based on the record when we play them not what they might do when their players get healthy.

Yes we can and should win the division, but I am looking at what tier we will be in.  Buxton is playing in 19 of 30 games and he is the catalyst.  We do not have an Ace - sorry Joe Ryan, you are really good but not a top flight starter and we need to have that stopper in the rotation in the playoffs. I am currently reading Brothers in Arms - the history of Dodger pitching and seeing their history of great pitchers is amazing. 

The Astros showed amazing patience at the plate to throw Ryan off his game.  They stole bases, they advanced, hit and run, and still do HRs and hits with less Ks.  I hope our team took note, especially the young guys who I hope will continue to advance with experience. 

I agree that the Twins should at least contend for the division title. Frankly, a wild-card spot might be tougher to get this year. I hope the team took notes last night because the Astros showed you how to play. They advanced runners and took professional at bats against a starter who was only just a little wild. The scored at least some of their runs on a ground out, a 2 out single after a player walked and stole 2nd base, and a sacrifice fly. Combine that with a pitcher how threw strikes and made the opposition put the ball play into an elite defense and you have a real recipe for winning baseball. It is also the recipe that would work best for these Twins. We don't have the offensive talent to bludgeon anyone to death nor can we expect ace stuff from the rotation,  We need to play smart situational baseball at the plate, good defense, and get pitching that requires our opponents to put the ball in play. Just like the Astros last night.  

IMO, if their starting pitching falls off (which is kind of has started to) and the offense doesn't get healthy real, real fast, things could get ugly. I don't think the team is for real without Buxton, Correa, Arraez and Polanco playing at least as expected.

But the real question IMO is can they get healthy and finish the last 20 games of this month, around 14-6? if not, I am not sure how the make the playoffs. The Yanks, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Angles and Astros seems like teams that would go at least that against this schedule.

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Yes the Twins are for real. The Astros are the last tough team we’ll play in May. Then the rest of the month is full of potential wins against the weak division opponents. All I ask is to ride out the season with Correa, and pray to the baseball gods to give us 110 healthy Buxton games. 

The baseball gods usually demand sacrifices of some sort. Let's hope Paddack's UCL was a big enough sacrifice for 110 games of Buxton.

Maybe that's why Falvine traded for Paddack in the first place?  Specifically to be the sacrifice to the baseballs gods.  If so, they are sneakier than we give them credit for. 

The team that faced Verlander is very young, it's good experience for them, they need it when they arrive to the post season. Experience is valuable if you think you can win with only youth you are sorely mistaken. They'll learn from this series and grow, hopefully we don't get swept with this team that they putting out there. Also I was expecting more from Polanco.

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, if their starting pitching falls off (which is kind of has started to) and the offense doesn't get healthy real, real fast, things could get ugly. I don't think the team is for real without Buxton, Correa, Arraez and Polanco playing at least as expected.

But the real question IMO is can they get healthy and finish the last 20 games of this month, around 14-6? if not, I am not sure how the make the playoffs. The Yanks, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Angles and Astros seems like teams that would go at least that against this schedule.

Plenty of winnable games on the schedule for sure and winning each series will keep their momentum going.

2 hours ago, Dave Overlund said:

The watchability of this team is off the charts IMO.

That's the important part to me -- there's a lot that could go wrong with this team, especially with the pitching, but damned if they aren't just entertaining. I'd love some postseason success, but the fact that I'm excited to turn on the game pretty much every night is about all you can really ask for with a baseball team

I know baseball has changed. But can anybody imagine a team before 2000 that had a player as fast as Buxton who didn't even try to steal bases? Stealing bases does so much more than just advance a runner. It constrains the defense, throws off the pitcher, sparks offense, and excites crowds.

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Taking care of business against the weak opponents the schedule has gifted us, should not be confused with being for real. It won't surprise me if they are below .500 at the trade deadline, and yet that might still be enough to be in contention for the Central title.  Or they may continue to whale against the bad teams and breeze to first place.  It still won't mean success against a quality opponent in the postseason. That's my benchmark for being for real, and right now I don't see it.

This is pretty much where I'm at, but I'd be surprised if they were under .500 at the deadline. 18 straight against Oakland, Detroit, and KC to close this month. If the Reds weren't looking to break the all time record for losses that trio would be in the running for the title of "worst in baseball." Unless Cleveland really gives the Twins a rough time, or MN collapses, there are just too many games against terrible teams to give up the ground they've already made. 

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No question, they've banked some wins they have to have.  I don't know how certainly that pattern of winning can carry forward.  This roster is constructed to give hope and then dash it via a bunch of "aw shucky durn, the injury bug has hit" outcomes.

Fair, I wouldn't be altogether shocked if they found themselves in that position due to injury, ineffectiveness, or just plain old regression. 

26 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Whitey Herzog, is that you?

Absolutely. I grew up on the 80's Cardinals. Though that is one extreme of running and small ball, I think that the Twins are losing out on a big potential to increase their game by outright ignoring that side of things. Sano is tied for first with stolen bases. For a team that is in the top 5% of GIDP, it is not much of a risk to try to swipe a few. 

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

The AL is weaker than I thought so this is a playoff team - which is what we should have demanded anyway. I don't think we're going to make much noise in the playoffs but making the playoffs is much better than not making the playoffs.

Know whats even better? Getting to a WS or maybe even..hey..winning another one? That should be the goal, not just squeaking into the play offs and getting smacked around. Thats what the Vikings do, I dont need two teams doing that to me year in and year out. .500 is and always will be mediocre, and not along term goal. 

If I had my druthers, this would still be the team I want to see on the field

56 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This is pretty much where I'm at, but I'd be surprised if they were under .500 at the deadline. 18 straight against Oakland, Detroit, and KC to close this month. If the Reds weren't looking to break the all time record for losses that trio would be in the running for the title of "worst in baseball." Unless Cleveland really gives the Twins a rough time, or MN collapses, there are just too many games against terrible teams to give up the ground they've already made. 

Agreed 100%

51 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

They beat Tampa 2 out of 3 and helped bury the ChiSox.  They didn't fare well against the Dodgers but there were a lot of weird circumstances there too.  Basically, they can only play who they play.  This is what the AL is....a couple challenges and mostly cupcakes.

This team is winning while missing Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Sano, Bundy, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Alcala etc.  I don't know if they're for real, but it's real that they have done one helluva job 20% of the way in with the circumstances.

Beating Tampa was good, Although after getting no-hit they do not look as good as I expected. But I will give you them as a good team we beat, but the White Sox at that point were without too many key players and were not playing well so I do not accept them as a Good Team that we beat - let's check out the next series with them.

Twins record vs teams better than .500 = 5-3

Doubters love to look at a team's record against winning teams, but the Twins are one of only three teams better than .500 versus winning teams. That can be a tricky stat. Some teams go back and forth over that line. For instance, the Twins are 3-0 versus the White Sox, who are precisely .500 when I'm writing this. If they win one more game, the Twins' record improves to 8-3, which is even better.

This is not correct. With the loss last night, the Twins are 5-4 against teams better than .500. This *includes* the 3-0 against the White Sox, who are currently 15-14. If they drop to .500, that record would be 2-4. The only series so far against current winning teams are 0-2 vs Dodgers, 2-1 vs. Rays, 3-0 vs White Sox, 0-1 vs. Astros. 

The Charmin-soft AL Central-loaded schedule has always worked against the Twins historically when they were competitive. In 2019 they won 100 games and were 5 games below .500 versus teams with .500 or better records. Their record deludes the team into thinking that they don't need to add significant pieces at the deadline. That mentality results in things like thinking it's a sensible idea to start a cab driver on the mound at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs.