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Last time, I discussed why Yankees fans currently view the Twins as an afterthought in the fight for the AL pennant, and why they might be right. I proposed Castillo as a difference-maker who could change that calculus. Today, let's talk about one package that could land the flamethrower in Minnesota.
It starts with Jorge Polanco. For a Twins team trying to challenge the Yankees this year, that might be the hardest pill to swallow here, but it’s necessary. One need not believe Polanco to be much of a shortstop to believe that he would be a huge upgrade for the Reds at shortstop, because they virtually don’t have a shortstop, at all. Polanco would add balance and depth to the Reds’ lineup, and fill their most glaring positional hole. They’re not aiming for a scorched-Earth rebuild—something more along the lines of the Twins’ reconstruction would suit their ownership’s mentality—so that would be highly attractive to them.
After that, the two teams would have to decide on a second piece in the deal, and there are three clear candidates. Two of those are the Twins’ top two pitching prospects, Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic. However, it’s somewhat easy to imagine the Twins balking at giving up either, because after 2021, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker will all be free agents. After 2022, José Berríos will follow suit (unless the front office can convince him to sign an extension by then). Kenta Maeda is around through 2024, but since he turns 33 next month, that’s almost as much a threat as a promise. Even with Castillo in the mix, the Twins need their top-tier, close-to-the-big-leagues arms.
Consider, then, another option. The Twins hold the 26th pick in the first round this year, and (of course) that pick is untradeable. However, the team’s competitive-balance pick can be dealt. Since it’s the Twins’ turn to have a pick in Competitive Balance Round A (after the first round), that’s the 36th overall selection. That could be an extremely enticing bit of bait for the Reds.
Cincinnati picks 17th in July. Then, they pick again at 30, as compensation for the loss of Trevor Bauer in free agency. They, too, have a competitive-balance pick coming, at 35. If they added one at 36, they could turbocharge a rebuild that was foisted upon them by circumstance. Because of the way the MLB Draft works, four picks in the top 36 (and five in the top 53) would give them a chance to either push a couple of elite talents down the board or stockpile high-quality prospects, in a shorter draft than the league has ever seen (save last year’s).
If the trade did center upon Polanco and the draft pick, another, low-level prospect would likely need to be thrown in. Even so, the deal could get done without Minnesota giving up any of its elite prospect talent, and the Reds could still justify giving up their ace, by pointing to their long-term, affordable control over a solid big-league infielder (Polanco, remember, has club options for 2024 and 2025) and to the rapid restocking of a thin farm system via the draft.
Although Polanco’s 2021 salary ($4.333 million) is almost identical to that of Castillo ($4.2 million), the Twins would also have to kick in some money. The Reds lost even more than most clubs during 2020, by running a payroll far beyond their small-market standards and gambling (sensibly, but for the pandemic of it all) that a competitive team would draw large crowds. Their local TV deal is one of the league’s least valuable. Again, though, their owners don’t want to nosedive into an Astros-style rebuild. They would much rather do what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done for the Twins. They just need short-term financial relief; that would be a primary impetus for trading Castillo. If the Twins were willing to pay them around $5 million, the above deal would become feasible. (Of course, that would stretch the Twins’ 2021 budget a bit. So be it.)
In the bargain, the Twins would leapfrog the White Sox and Cleveland and claim the title of the best starting rotation in the AL Central. In fact, they might fairly claim to have the best in the entire American League. Castillo throws in the upper 90s with his fastball, and commands it brilliantly; has one of the league’s most devastating changeups; and throws a really good slider. Wes Johnson would quickly sell him on throwing the last offering more, especially to lefties, and he could become one of the five best pitchers in baseball with that small adjustment.
Losing Polanco would hurt, of course. The Twins would have to trust either that they could trade from their newfound surfeit of starters to land a capable utility player with the ability to cover shortstop, or that J.T. Riddle or Nick Gordon could competently stop the gap if (when) Andrelton Simmons misses time. Still, the deal would add clarity for the team in the starting lineup. Luis Arraez, who belongs at the top of the batting order every day, would get that opportunity again. Travis Blankenhorn would assume a limited version of the role for which Arraez is now slated, filling in at first, second, and third base to spell starters and allow nagging injuries to heal.
To believe the Twins to be better than the Yankees, even after this hypothetical trade, you still have to think highly of their hitters. You have to believe that the 2019 versions of Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver are coming back; that Byron Buxton and Simmons can stay on the field enough to have the impact of which they’re capable; and that Miguel Sanó can time fastballs properly on a more consistent basis. None of those are unreasonable things for which to hope, though.
Moreover, the version of the Twins this deal would create would, in a theoretical October showdown with the Yankees’ (or White Sox’s) excellent but right-leaning lineup, counter with three of the best right-handed starting pitchers in all of baseball, with a Michael Pineda kicker. We talk often about star power versus depth. This deal would give the Twins a depth of star power that more closely matches that of New York, and that’s the kind of team that seems to find the most success in the playoffs.
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