4 Observations from the Twins' 2023 ZiPS Projections

I don't know who zippy is but he seems pretty spot on 

What do the Tarot cards say?

I wish I could say we will be a lot better than that, but it actually projects the way I see it with the roster we currently have.  Lucky we are in the Central.  Pagan is projected to have 0.1 WAR - too high for me. 

BP should turn around 100%. Alcala should be a tremendous help hopefully after his year absence.

Our biggest short term hole is SS, hopefully that gets resolved. 2nd biggest short term & long term hole is catching, hopefully that gets resolved adequately.

I see  the rotation, offense, defense and especially the BP are more than adequate if they are managed properly. But additions can't hurt.

I project Buxton as playing in more games.

IMO SS can be simply  addressed even if we don't sign CC. Hopefully catching at least short term can be adequately addressed.

At this point I'm still optimistic but I'm waiting to see what happens with SS & catching.

This is pretty clear-headed.  Does this include Correa, or is this without him?  With the price for Correa exploding and Lewis and Brooks in the pipeline we just may need to get a catcher and Chris Bassitt and roll with Farmer.  One thing about Bassitt is that he's very consistent.  You probably won't see a CY Young season but you won't see a disaster either.  And he will eat innings, which is just what our rotation and BP need.  

Personally, I think they are a little light on the pen. A healthy Alcala and Thielbar should raise the floor some. But I think this also shows why one more really good, solid arm ro help the 7th-8th could go a long way.

I think I'd have to say they are a little light on the rotation as well. Various exams and 2 mri's show Mahle's shoulder is sound. He says weird offseason, short ST, and then trying to throw too many innings early tired his arm. I'm going with that until I see otherwise. I can buy Ober at 90IP or less if hurt. But he was healthy in 2021 and I could see 120+ in 2023 if he remains healthy again. Just hard for me to hear how good Maeda feels, how good his control was at the end of the last year while throwing on the side, see his history, and then not see him more than 90 IP. 

Are they a tiny bit light on Buxton? I hope so. But all in all, I can't find any major disagreements here. I just think they're a little low here and there.

I pay attention to zips projections the same amount as framing numbers. 

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast.  I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict.  If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun.  If not, it might be a long summer.  Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.  

5 hours ago, RJA said:

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast.  I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict.  If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun.  If not, it might be a long summer.  Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.  

Id put the rotation as of today below adequate.  

The caveat to every hopeful Twins projection is “if they are healthy”.  The fan in me wants to believe that Mahle, Maeda, Lewis, Buxton, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Polanco, Arraez, Alcala, etc. are all healthy.  The problem the logical part of me struggles with the question “When was the last time any team had this number of injured players all return to peak performance?”.  

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Id put the rotation as of today below adequate.  

Complete agree. While some see SS as the biggest hole, I see the rotation. 

If Rodon pitches 120 innings, he is still a 3 win improvement over their current 5th starter.

If Correa plays 140 games, he is maybe 2 wins better than a combination of Farmer, prospects, and/or a trade acquisition.

Correa is a higher floor, while Rodon is a higher ceiling. I'll take the upside of Rodon, especially on the contracts they are likely to get.