Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,683

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by yarnivek1972

  1. yarnivek1972
    I think the Twins can use teams like Houston, Cleveland and St. Louis as a model of how to operate in a mid market with success. Cleveland had a dry patch during the Twins run of the early 2000s, but they have won nearly half (10) of the AL Central titles since the division was formed in 1994. The Twins have won 6, Chicago and Detroit four each and the Royals won one. St. Louis has been a consistent winner despite being in a mid market for decades. Indeed, just one sub .500 season since 2000. Their worst non strike season win total going back to 1980 is a 70 win total in 1990. The Astros were clearly tanking in the final few years of the Drayton McClane era, but have been great since and were consistently good in the Biggio-Bagwell years despite being in the division of the Cubs and Cards and had a solid run in the first half of the 80s. Again, the model is dependant on drafting and developing well. THAT is the model for sustained success. There really is no other way for mid market teams. Those teams lack the resources to buy top free agents year after year and they can’t trade to get impact players if the players they have to offer haven’t developed into players other teams want.
  2. yarnivek1972
    There is no way MLB is going to have different roster sizes based on payroll. I think the 40 man roster is more than adequate. The Twins over the past 8-10 years have simply done a poor job of managing it. I’ll agree on the 25 man, with a caveat. I think I would be fine with 25 active players for a particular day with a 3-4 man “taxi-squad” that can be changed daily. Players on the taxi squad would be paid at the MLB level and accrue service time.
  3. yarnivek1972
    Spending for spending’s sake might eventually encourage better free agents to give the Twins a look. It might shed the organization of their “always doing it on the cheap” reputation.
  4. yarnivek1972
    To do what the Astros are doing a team needs to draft well and develop well. The Twins are not. Case in point, Messers Sano and Buxton. Both have roughly 3 years MLB service time and no one really knows whether or not they are even legitimate MLB players let alone stars. That’s an organizational problem that needs fixing. Rapidly.
  5. yarnivek1972
    Simply pointing out that a team isn’t going to contend with a handful of 3 WAR players. A team that wins has IMPACT players. PS: Houston’s payroll in 2017 was $140 mil. They won the World Series that year with nine players of 2.5 bWAR or higher, including three over 5.
  6. yarnivek1972
    The Red Sox had eight players with bWAR above 3 in 2018, including three above 6. The Astros had eight players above 2.5, including four above 5. Just showing how big a gap there is between “competing” and “contending”.
  7. yarnivek1972
    Brian Duensing made $3.5 mil each of the last two years. Despite a nightmarish 2018, he still has a sub 4 career relief ERA and a career .625 OPS vs LHB. Point being that is the type of pitcher one can get for $3.5 mil. I don’t see Perez as that good.
  8. yarnivek1972
    I was at Mahomes’ MLB debut. It was the first Sunday night ESPN game of the year and the first time they had one on opening weekend. Because of scheduled off days, Tom Kelly could have handpicked who would start. I always felt making his debut on the national stage was a huge mistake. Lead off walk. A flyout to cf by former Twin Al Newman. A balk and then another walk. A screaming line drive and then the big fly by Juan Gone. He probably should have started the Saturday game in between the home opener and the Sunday night game. He recovered just fine as mentioned. 5 shutout innings - against arguably the best offense in MLB - followed. The game was a foreshadow of the entire season. Starting pitching was not nearly as good as 1991. Offense was horrendous other than Puckett. Bullpen was terrible, including the usually reliable Aguilera. In Aggie’s defense, including the postseaon, he pitched 77 innings in 1991. That’s his highest career total as a reliever.
  9. yarnivek1972
    In reality, the “extra year” probably will end up helping Buxton financially. Let’s say Buxton continues to be all glove, no hit (OPS+ in the 80s). He’ll have an extra year of arbitration instead of being a free agent. As a free agent with that resume, he’d be lucky to get a guaranteed MLB contract. In arbitration, he figures to get steady raises. Of course, if Buxton is still OPS+ in the 80 range, the Twins could (and probably should) release or non-tender him before his 4th year of arbitration. Conversely, let’s say he gets it together and maybe OPS+ of 100-110 for his final 2 years of arb. Well, if he was a FA a year earlier, would a team be convinced the one season was real or would he have to settle for a “prove it” deal? But with that second year of success, a team - likely several teams - would be willing to roll the dice. Now he hits FA at a still young 29 at his apex and can probably pick his team. The only way this ends up costing Buxton any serious amount of money is if he does well the next three years and then gets hurt in 2022. It should be noted that if he does well the next 3 years, it’s pretty likely he is offered an extension. If he doesn’t take it, well. That’s on him.
  10. yarnivek1972
    Minimum MLB salary is about $500 K. Typical free agents command anywhere from $5 to $20 mil. Just a hunch that mid level baseball operations personnel make in the neighborhood of $100 K. Maybe $150 K if they have an impressive resume. They could add 50 such people for the cost of one low rated free agent. It’s simply not a significant enough of a cost to substantially impact player payroll budget.
  11. yarnivek1972
    I don’t see how you can suggest that a lineup made up almost entirely of players that are 1-2 years away from their MLB debuts will be a contender in 3.
  12. yarnivek1972
    I’m curious to know the rationale for a corner OFer like Rosario getting a better reward than 3b Lamb. Position scarcity seems to suggest that there are fewer 3b like Lamb than there are corner OFer like Rosario. I’d say MLBTraderumors is right. His eventual salary will be about $4 mil.
  13. yarnivek1972
    Neither of those placements puts them 6-10 in the rotation, which is what you said their role would be. They are either in the pen or not on the roster.
  14. yarnivek1972
    Baldelli has spent the last 3 seasons in a MLB dugout watching and learning. Molitor spent most of his time prior to becoming manager as a minor league roving baserunning instructor. Rocco also scored 1300 on his SAT. Plenty of wisdom.
  15. yarnivek1972
    I don’t think I said they are or will be. However, saying they should be 6-10 in the MLB rotation in 2020 would suggest you believe they should be in AAA.That is not likely to happen because I doubt either would clear waivers in 2020, unless they get injured.
  16. yarnivek1972
    Gonsalves, Mejia and Romero will all be 25 going in to 2020. I’m pretty sure Mejia and Romero will be out of options. You can’t leave them in the minors forever. The Twins are always going to have some inexperience on their roster, particularly the pitching staff. It is up to the development staff to get them ready. If they can’t, that’s a different problem that needs to be remedied.
  17. yarnivek1972
    Don’t plan on making it to next summer? Sorry to hear that... Say hi to Harm for me.
  18. yarnivek1972
    If the Padres called the Twins wouldn’t the trade have happened before Hughes was DFA? Why would they call after that?
  19. yarnivek1972
    The Twins won’t contend with this lineup unless they improve about a run per game. I’m not convinced this group has that level of talent.
  20. yarnivek1972
    What relevance is what the Yankees do to this discussion? As I previously mentioned, both Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett’s numbers were retired within a year of their announcement. They are the Twins players with retired numbers that retired most recently. So, it’s not fast compared with Twins history.
  21. yarnivek1972
    Of course it was. But the decision to cut him results in getting no return on that money. Just because you and I and fans look at the situation a certain way, doesn’t mean Jim Pohlad does. Again, what other plausible explanation is there for the delay of the decision? The only other explanation is that Falvine held out hope that Hughes could help the team. Something every objective observer dismissed in March. If that is the case, it’s a much bigger problem IMO.
  22. yarnivek1972
    Cutting Hughes was a $30 mil decision. That’s a lot even for Pohlad’s companies. I would say him giving final approval is more likely than him not. What else explains why cutting him took so long? It was obvious in ST that his arm was gone. Yet, the Twins wasted a roster spot on him for 7 weeks. If it took Falvine that long to evaluate Hughes, that’s actually a MUCH bigger problem. I feel pretty confident in my point of view. Do I have proof? No. Neither do you.
  23. yarnivek1972
    Isn’t Kaat already past consideration, even by the veteran committee? An interesting case though. 16 consecutive gold gloves should count for something. A very good career as a starter, albeit in an era with quite a few guys who were a lot better. Perhaps the first successful middle reliever, setting up Bruce Sutter in St. Louis. Of his top 10 in BR similarity scores, only Tommy John, Jamie Moyer and Frank Tanana aren’t in. John should be as well. He was the first guy to come back from an injury that ended the career of every pitcher before him. There are probably 3-4 guys in now that wouldn’t be were it not for Tommy John.
  24. yarnivek1972
    Then it would probably be a good idea to get the Romeros and Mejias etc into the bigs so they will feel less pressure and have more experience in 2020. What it boils down to again is competitiveness. If you expect the Twins to contend in 2019, you probably roll with the veterans until you either fall out of contention or decide the veteran isn’t getting the job done. If you don’t expect to contend, you need to give starts to inexperienced guys to evaluate them and plan for the future.
  25. yarnivek1972
    It’s a simple game. Throw ball. Hit ball. Catch ball. I guess I would say a 28 year old losing velocity sure sets up red flags. I’m sure the Rays noticed. I’m sure other teams noticed. By itself, maybe not a big deal. But coupled with being a 2 time through the lineup guy and an ERA increase that has coincided with the velocity decrease it seems the only one who benefits from a long term deal is Odorizzi. What is the upside for the Twins? The long shot chance that he does a Gibson type reversal? Again, you’re talking about a 3 year commitment to a guy that you SHOULD be trying to replace. That’s not how you build sustainability. It’s how you build mediocrity.
×
×
  • Create New...