nicksaviking

But they don't know where the holes are. Everyone wanted the bullpen upgraded even though there are at least a half dozen young arms who might excel in that role. Or they might not. We don't know yet, I'm OK waiting to find out.

You've been asking for bullpen upgrades all off season, how were Stauffer's 2013-14 numbers really much different than the guys you wanted this year? Stauffer wasn't any good last year, that happens all the time with free agent relievers, more so than any other position.

Scott hadn't been pitching well, so getting him out of the picture and getting a prospect for him could certainly be considered a win. At the time though, fans weren't too kind regarding the move due to how spectacularly bad Klingenbeck was.

Without digging too deep, for the Twins I'd guess it's AJ Pierzynski drafted in 1994 who gave us Nathan, Bonser and Liriano. Liriano gave us the departed Pedro Hernandez but also Eduardo Escobar. Another current one is Travis Boyer drafted in 1999 along with Scott Tyler brought the Twins Luis Castillo who was later traded for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera. Butera was traded for Miguel Sulbaran who was traded for Eduardo Nunez. I regret forgetting to include the Hardy contribution with Harris in that Hoey trade. I didn't expect that post to get so long. Man I wasted a lot of time at work this morning. Edit: actually there is a longer one, but it's more like a shrub. The a Twins drafted Eddie Guardado in 1990. The comp picks they received upon his free agency turned out to be Matt Fox and current closer Glen Perkins.

The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015. After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanon (.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree. Brian Buchanon had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle of the order bat, unfortunately for him, he found himself in a space crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy. Buchanon found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1), Brendon Harris (.-6) and Jason Pridie (-.2). Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd. Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-.6) and Brett Jacobson. Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did. Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the teams division title. Alas it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Davis who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0). Oliveros would too tease with his potential, but never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals. That wraps up the Buchanon wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and questionable contract extension. Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (.2). Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of .4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre, check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a .65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011. Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the Win. That has to be worth more than .2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless. Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level. The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Christian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a 1st round pick because that was protected. Not a second round pick because that was already lost, but a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6.2). Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, it did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins for the men listed in this overly long post. In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained. These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It however will not. Epilogue: the Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with a career WAR over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson, also drafting Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players spawned unexpected fruit however too. While Erickson's trade for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures, in 1992 Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle, (something unbelievable for the Twins today) the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher who the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter would leave the Twins would use his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova, even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year, they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them.

What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP? Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.

I am so jealous of that rotation.

Good point on Rosario, I can't see him starting all year if he has a .680 OPS, particularly if that's being weighed down by his OBP, which is a skill the Twins are dearly lacking. Same with Plouffe though. If he's playing that poorly, we should probably expect Sano at 3B. And if Murphy is head and shoulders better than Suzuki, I think the split will be more than 60/40. On one hand, this team likes it's veterans, on the other, they are going to want to showoff what they got for Aaron Hicks.

That would be fine, but what if Duffey and Berrios are pitching great and the vets are pitching just "OK"? Will the they have the guts to pull Nolasco/Milone/Hughes if they are pitching like Pelfrey in 2015 even if the young guys are tearing up AAA? Same with the pen. If Fien/Jepsen/Abad are just pitching like Boyer and Fien in 2015, would they get removed if any of the young arms are tearing it up?

That collection of vets in the bullpen is pretty uninspiring. If that's who comes north I'd feel much better IF we knew Fien, Nolasco and Abad have little to no leash. I'd also feel more comfortable if the team acknowledged that they understand Jepsen's resurgence with the Twins in 2015 is no more likely to recur than his decline with the Rays in 2015. What he did in Tampa last year was about what Tonkin did in Minnesota last year, Jepsen's role as bullpen Vice President should not be in stone.

So Santana's .405 BABIP was flukey, but it in no way helps to explain the drop off in production in 2015 and nothing can? Even though nearly everyone predicted that Santana would drop off in 2015 due to his extremely high BABIP everyone was just a lucky guesser? Because there really isn't any other measure that takes into account "Texas Leaguers", "Seeing-eye Singles" and other various other hits that a fielder probably should have turned into an out but didn't, BABIP is a pretty strong tool for determining if a player had more than his fair share of these during the year. Obviously those kinds of hits are based more on luck than skill, and luck shouldn't be an expectation.

At this point, barring injury Berrios has gotten close enough that he will get a shot at the MLB regardless of what he does in the minors. He could be terrible at Rochester, but the team will still want to see him before cutting bait as his resume to this point has been so outstanding. The same isn't a guarantee with Stewart of Jay. It's highly unlikely that they don't get at least a taste of the MLB, but as mentioned, their floor is still minor league flameout.

But it sounds like the Twins didn't like the results of his physical and Cody's side disagreed that there was any concern about the physical. Otherwise what's to stop the club from always telling the player his physical showed "concerns"? Now I don't think the Twins of all teams would do some like this, but from a player's perspective, they have to be able to back out if they disagree with the club's interpretation of the physical.

Pressly should be more of a lock than Fien, and I'm concerned that the team is going to put too much confidence in Jepsen. He wasn't doing well in TB and with his age, I think it's better than 50/50 that his declining results with TB will be what we see instead of spike we saw with the Twins. But my biggest concern is that Molitor will still run out relievers based on seniority, not talent. He can't keep running guys out in high leverage jams because of "experience". The young guys with the ability to miss bats need to be used when you most need bats missed, not in mop up duty. Fien should NEVER be on the mound with the bases loaded and less than two outs. Unless the game's already a blowout.

I don't want either of them hitting and the Twins sure as hell better not be planning on any of them doing it regularly. I don't see value for the position other than defensive replacements, which is probably a push, and base running which Sweeney comes in third place.

Of those guys only Mussina and Bumgarner were picked in the first round. Bumgarner was throwing mid-90's when he got drafted as a left-handed High Schooler and Mussina had plus velocity when he first came into the league and averaged well above league average strikeout numbers during his time in the league. I also wonder why everyone always throws Maddux into these discussions, it must be because he was known as a control pitcher. Maddux had above league average strikeout numbers during his prime relative to the rest of the league and is 10th all time on the career strikeout list. Lucas Giolito and Brady Aiken were recent top ten-type guys who fell due to injury, I'd be happy if the Twins had a shot at Matt Krook. I don't need velocity, and I'm sorry I put it that way, I just want strikeouts since the draft is the only way the Twins can get them. With the draft, it really hard to judge that ability in a pitcher aside from measuring their velocity. Also, the odds of getting Tom Glavine are no better than getting Randy Johnson.

I would rather the Twins fail 9 out of 10 times on the fireballer than go the safe route no matter what the rate of success would be. I don't want a chance at a "good" pitcher in the 1st round, I want a chance at a great one. Again, the Twins have no problem affording "good" pitchers in free agency. The draft, and most likely the 1st round, is the team's only realistic way of getting a great one. I'll never fault them for trying and failing; keep at it, they'll hit on it some time.

If the Twins offered Cody well under slot money, I would be pretty disappointed in the club if they were furious. What justification could they possibly have from wanting the guy to take less money than the system said was fair and seemingly asking him to take less than what was discussed prior to picking the player, and getting upset when he decides to try to do better the next year?

I don't need to see them get to the playoffs several years in a row to go all in, but I want to see the rotation and the bullpen infused with youth and the young batters who need to be the keystones firmly entrenched. It still looks like 2016 is still going to be heavily influenced by the veterans who have already peaked. When the team finally tosses away the veteran crutches, that's when I want to see them go all in.

That was when Hughes was throwing 92-94. Last year he was throwing 89-91. If his velocity is back in 2016 I'm good giving him a lot longer leash. If it's not back, and we should know fairly quickly, his leash should be very, very short.

I agree, I'd like May and Duffey both in the rotation, but May has four pitches and he appears to be locked into the bullpen simply because he was effective there last year and the Twins have self-made bullpen issues currently. Most starters with good velocity and four pitches would make a good bullpen pitcher, but other teams don't push them to the pen because obviously they are more valuable in the rotation pitching two, three, maybe four times as many innings. Slightly different topic, if Hughes' velocity is still at 90 MPH, he should not be a lock for the rotation. He's been in the pen before and perhaps his velocity returns or increases with the short outings. A 90 MPH FB and a way below average curveball make for a bad starter, just as they did last year. He just doesn't have the breaking pitches to get away with a low velocity FB.

Cody has to agree for the Twins to be able to re-draft him. He certainly might, but who knows what went on in last year's negotiations. Also, if we're looking at a re-draft guy, I'd still rather have Kyle Funkhouser. And considering Funkhouser is a Louisville/Kentucky guy, you know the Twins are already thinking about him. I think they're addicted to players from Kentucky schools.

I don't want a guy who can hold his own in the 1st round of the draft. The Twins don't need to draft any high floor/low ceiling guys because those are the guys that are easily affordable in free agency. The Twins can't or won't sign high ceiling talent, particularly pitchers, and they shouldn't. They've signed five high floor/low ceiling free agents in the past four years though. No one, including the Twins should regret not taking Nola and his 90 MPH fastball.

I agree, which is why when service time issues are in the review mirror, the young guys with upside should be in the rotation ahead of the vets so that they may more quickly get their growing pains out of the way.