nicksaviking

Tonkin might not be any good and he may need to be DFA'd, but I must not be on the same page as most people, because of all the bullpen woes last year, Tonkin didn't seem to be one of them. He got demoted twice last year, not after a string of rough outings, but both times after a single rough outing. He had no leash.

And let's hope the proper course of action is blatantly obvious very early in the year and decision doesn't get dragged out.

I think league wide we saw last year that the better physical attributes of young guys trumped the experience of the veterans. Just look at the All Star game, it was almost all made up of guys in their 20s, and if the Twins ranked their pitchers and hitters last year, their performances would line up pretty nearly inverse to their ages. We live in such a technological age that coaches can instruct young players at all levels of the minors much easier. These guys have film, they have detailed scouting reports and they can still watch Tom Emanski videos if need be. Even though they aren't paid like it, minor leaguer's full-time job is baseball, they practice year-round now, it's not like how it used to be. The experience gap has surely been cut from what it was when Nuke LaLoosh got all of his advice from mound visits from Crash and sleeping with his baseball groupie girlfriend.

I was also against the Liriano trade saying that it was silly considering that Escobar should be considered the 40th player on the 40 man, meaning he should be first to be DFA'd. And now he's turned into one of my favorites. In the first half of 2016 if he can hit anything close to what he did in the second half the last two years, he might become my favorite.

No for me on Dozier. Off the books at 32 sounds exactly right to me.

Hunter had a positive UZR and positive UZR/150. Every stat showed a huge improvement over 2014. The guy was 39, he didn't magically get more athletic, it was due to the environment. Even if Sano is not good, it's not going to hurt, he's replacing another poor defender, it's not like the team is significantly downgrading the defense from something that was elite last year.

Everyone was making a huge deal about Torii Hunter manning RF this time last year. Every metric said he was among the worst, if not the worst outfielder in the game in 2014, yet he was just fine last year despite having next to no range. Jim Thome could play RF at Target Field relaxing in a lawn chair, it's the size of a Manhatten efficiency.

I don't know if Plouffe was shopped or not, but I'd also bet that Ryan would have said Hicks wasn't shopped right up until the final signature was placed on his trade paperwork.

Not that I agree with the same kind of move today, but we also shouldn't forget that to replace Morris in 1992, McPhail traded two of his top prospects, Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle for one season of one of the NL's best pitchers the previous year, John Smiley.

I'm also not interested in Thornton. His peripheral numbers show he was not nearly as good as his counting stats would suggest. If he can't miss bats anymore, he's not worth it. I don't like that Burdi is tinkering already. He's a fireballing reliever, those guys usually only need two pitches. He was pitching well the second half of last year. After his initial demotion he was giving up 5.4 H/9 the rest of the year, his main problem was free passes, I can't see how adding a new pitch would help with that. Why tinker unless what you're doing isn't working?

They both were included in that trade, I regretfully left out Hardy like a mis-treated step child on a family tree.

Lot's of fans said they should. Obviously the team didn't want to but that decision wasn't based on long term winning, it was based on putting fans in the seats at all costs. And it still failed.

Those flyers aren't so much of a crap shoot though because pitchers on 1-2 year deals are a lot easier to move than guys on 4-year deals. Signing guys like Buehrle wasn't going to put this team over the top. He's barely a step up over the Santana/Nolasco/Hughes kinds of deals. If the Twins were going to go from rock-bottom with no prospect help to contenders, they would have had to go with the big name free agents on mega contracts.

I agree that Park was pretty redundant, but his contract is so cheap he's basically being paid like a bench player. He's a lotto ticket and I'm more than willing to gamble with that power upside. I don't like 3-4 year deals either, but if he's as bad as Nishioka, I have no doubt that the Twins would eat the remaining $6M and DFA'ing him after two years. It's not Twins-like, but it's not unheard of, and besides, it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to what they'll have already eaten having already gotten rid of Nolasco by that time.

I think the argument really isn't "Is the Twins system broken" so much as it is "Is the Twins system obsolete". It might be, maybe not all of it though, maybe not most of it. After all, things are often cyclical and things that are old often times once again become new. The Astros and Cubs showed again last year that the homegrown method of drafting and acquiring young talent is a very practical way of winning. Again. That used to be in the Twins wheelhouse if it still isn't. Plenty of other areas of the system surely have updates that are long overdue though.

Who? Aside from Mark Lowe who we've already discussed as a guy who was underrated, I don't see free agent pitchers in 2015-16 that had markedly better numbers than Stauffer last year. Stauffer had three starts in 2014, other than that he was largely one-inning relief pitcher. His peripherals in 2013-14 were better than Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria in 2015 and were inline with Ryan Madson.

But they don't know where the holes are. Everyone wanted the bullpen upgraded even though there are at least a half dozen young arms who might excel in that role. Or they might not. We don't know yet, I'm OK waiting to find out.

You've been asking for bullpen upgrades all off season, how were Stauffer's 2013-14 numbers really much different than the guys you wanted this year? Stauffer wasn't any good last year, that happens all the time with free agent relievers, more so than any other position.

Scott hadn't been pitching well, so getting him out of the picture and getting a prospect for him could certainly be considered a win. At the time though, fans weren't too kind regarding the move due to how spectacularly bad Klingenbeck was.

Without digging too deep, for the Twins I'd guess it's AJ Pierzynski drafted in 1994 who gave us Nathan, Bonser and Liriano. Liriano gave us the departed Pedro Hernandez but also Eduardo Escobar. Another current one is Travis Boyer drafted in 1999 along with Scott Tyler brought the Twins Luis Castillo who was later traded for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera. Butera was traded for Miguel Sulbaran who was traded for Eduardo Nunez. I regret forgetting to include the Hardy contribution with Harris in that Hoey trade. I didn't expect that post to get so long. Man I wasted a lot of time at work this morning. Edit: actually there is a longer one, but it's more like a shrub. The a Twins drafted Eddie Guardado in 1990. The comp picks they received upon his free agency turned out to be Matt Fox and current closer Glen Perkins.

The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015. After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanon (.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree. Brian Buchanon had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle of the order bat, unfortunately for him, he found himself in a space crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy. Buchanon found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1), Brendon Harris (.-6) and Jason Pridie (-.2). Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd. Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-.6) and Brett Jacobson. Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did. Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the teams division title. Alas it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Davis who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0). Oliveros would too tease with his potential, but never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals. That wraps up the Buchanon wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and questionable contract extension. Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (.2). Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of .4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre, check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a .65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011. Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the Win. That has to be worth more than .2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless. Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level. The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Christian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a 1st round pick because that was protected. Not a second round pick because that was already lost, but a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6.2). Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, it did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins for the men listed in this overly long post. In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained. These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It however will not. Epilogue: the Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with a career WAR over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson, also drafting Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players spawned unexpected fruit however too. While Erickson's trade for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures, in 1992 Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle, (something unbelievable for the Twins today) the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher who the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter would leave the Twins would use his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova, even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year, they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them.

What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP? Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.

I am so jealous of that rotation.

Good point on Rosario, I can't see him starting all year if he has a .680 OPS, particularly if that's being weighed down by his OBP, which is a skill the Twins are dearly lacking. Same with Plouffe though. If he's playing that poorly, we should probably expect Sano at 3B. And if Murphy is head and shoulders better than Suzuki, I think the split will be more than 60/40. On one hand, this team likes it's veterans, on the other, they are going to want to showoff what they got for Aaron Hicks.